futurist
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Post by futurist on Sept 18, 2016 16:59:00 GMT
Let's say that the Soviet Union's leadership in 1979 becomes a bit more sensible. Thus, rather than launching a full Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan, decides that the Communist Afghan government is a lost case and thus completely cuts off all aid to this government. However, in this TL, the Soviet Union's leadership also decides to outright conquer and annex the parts of northern Afghanistan which have a low elevation (and many of which apparently have an ethnic Uzbek-majority population): upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/45/Afghan_topo_en.jpgwww.glencoe.com/vaessentials/wgc/solswoa/wgc_se_p461_map.jpgIn addition to this, the Soviet Union is also going to try playing off the various factions in (newly post-Communist) Afghanistan against each other in order to try getting them to fight each other instead of trying to recapture the northern parts of Afghanistan (Afghan Turkestan) from the Soviet Union. Anyway, how successful would such a Soviet strategy be in Afghanistan in this TL? (After all, I suspect that the Soviet Union's decision not to occupy the mountainous parts of Afghanistan in this TL will make Soviet forces in northern Afghanistan less vulnerable to Mujaheddin attacks.) |
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Post by futurist on Sept 18, 2016 16:59:26 GMT
Also, for the record, if you want an example of such a Russian strategy from our TL, you can take a look at Russia's decision to conquer Crimea and (de facto) the Donbass after the 2014 Maidan Revolution in Ukraine instead of trying to occupy most or all of Ukraine (which would have certainly been extremely risky for Russia for various reasons).
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Sept 18, 2016 17:04:17 GMT
Let's say that the Soviet Union's leadership in 1979 becomes a bit more sensible. Thus, rather than launching a full Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan, decides that the Communist Afghan government is a lost case and thus completely cuts off all aid to this government. However, in this TL, the Soviet Union's leadership also decides to outright conquer and annex the parts of northern Afghanistan which have a low elevation (and many of which apparently have an ethnic Uzbek-majority population): There will be limit insurgency in those areas that the Soviet Union annexes, like Chechnya. |
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Post by futurist on Sept 18, 2016 17:12:38 GMT
Let's say that the Soviet Union's leadership in 1979 becomes a bit more sensible. Thus, rather than launching a full Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan, decides that the Communist Afghan government is a lost case and thus completely cuts off all aid to this government. However, in this TL, the Soviet Union's leadership also decides to outright conquer and annex the parts of northern Afghanistan which have a low elevation (and many of which apparently have an ethnic Uzbek-majority population): There will be limit insurgency in those areas that the Soviet Union annexes, like Chechnya. |
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Post by futurist on Sept 18, 2016 17:13:56 GMT
Indeed, the only ripe area for insurgency that I can see in this TL is in urban areas/cities (such as in the city of Kunduz); however, dealing with this shouldn't be an insurmountable problem for the Soviet Union--after all, the Soviet Union can probably demolish these cities to rubble if necessary!
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Post by lordroel on Sept 18, 2016 17:14:30 GMT
There will be limit insurgency in those areas that the Soviet Union annexes, like Chechnya. Soo it will become another Soviet Republic or become part of a Soviet Republic already existing. |
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Post by futurist on Sept 18, 2016 17:15:47 GMT
True, but Chechnya's mountainous terrain appears to have been very favorable for the conducting of an insurgency. In contrast, the parts of Afghanistan that the Soviet Union will conquer and annex in this TL will be very flat (rather than mountainous). Soo it will become another Soviet Republic or become part of a Soviet Republic already existing. Most of this territory will probably get annexed by the Uzbek SSR, with some scraps going to the Turkmen SSR and maybe to the Tajik SSR as well. |
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Post by futurist on Sept 18, 2016 17:16:30 GMT
Also, for the record, I suspect that many, if not most, of the ethnic Pashtuns in northern Afghanistan (such as in the city of Kunduz) will flee to southern Afghanistan in this TL in order to escape Soviet rule.
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Post by lordroel on Sept 18, 2016 17:18:10 GMT
Also, for the record, I suspect that many, if not most, of the ethnic Pashtuns in northern Afghanistan (such as in the city of Kunduz) will flee to southern Afghanistan in this TL in order to escape Soviet rule. What remains of Afghanistan could become a battleground for Iran and Pakistan to fight over. |
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Post by futurist on Sept 18, 2016 17:19:45 GMT
Also, for the record, I suspect that many, if not most, of the ethnic Pashtuns in northern Afghanistan (such as in the city of Kunduz) will flee to southern Afghanistan in this TL in order to escape Soviet rule. What remains of Afghanistan could become a battleground for Iran and Pakistan to fight over. Possibly; of course, I strongly suspect that both Iran and Pakistan will prefer to fight a proxy war for Afghanistan rather than to fight an outright war for Afghanistan. |
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Post by futurist on Sept 18, 2016 17:23:28 GMT
Also, for the record, I think that Pakistan will probably win a proxy war (with Iran) over Afghanistan due to Pakistan probably being willing to commit more resources to this. Of course, the interesting thing would be if Pakistan-supported Pashtun Islamists in Afghanistan in this TL will still eventually allow Islamist terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda to have a safe haven in Afghanistan; indeed, if a 9/11-style terrorist attack still eventually occurs on U.S. soil in this TL, I can certainly see the U.S. making a deal with Uzbekistan (the Soviet Union would have probably still collapsed by that point in time in this TL) to allow the U.S. to use Uzbekistan as a base for invading Afghanistan in exchange for U.S. recognition of Uzbekistan's sovereignty over northern Afghanistan and in exchange for large-scale U.S. military aid and assistance to Uzbekistan.
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Post by lordroel on Sept 18, 2016 17:23:36 GMT
What remains of Afghanistan could become a battleground for Iran and Pakistan to fight over. Possibly; of course, I strongly suspect that both Iran and Pakistan will prefer to fight a proxy war for Afghanistan rather than to fight an outright war for Afghanistan. I would assume that Afghanistan or what remains of it will remain a republic and not going back to be a monarchy it was before it Communist Republic. |
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Post by futurist on Sept 18, 2016 17:25:00 GMT
Possibly; of course, I strongly suspect that both Iran and Pakistan will prefer to fight a proxy war for Afghanistan rather than to fight an outright war for Afghanistan. I would assume that Afghanistan or what remains of it will remain a republic and not going back to be a monarchy it was before it Communist Republic. Actually, Afghanistan can (eventually) become an Islamic state led by fanatical Pashtun Islamists (such as the Taliban) in this TL. |
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Post by futurist on Sept 18, 2016 17:25:37 GMT
Also, please take a look at my post right above your last post, lordroel!  |
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Post by lordroel on Sept 18, 2016 17:26:02 GMT
I would assume that Afghanistan or what remains of it will remain a republic and not going back to be a monarchy it was before it Communist Republic. Actually, Afghanistan can (eventually) become an Islamic state led by fanatical Pashtun Islamists (such as the Taliban) in this TL. Who most likely hate the Soviet Union. |
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