Europe of Five Empires

Well, any of the six great empires could potentially evolve this way with time, although for a few it seems more probable than for others. It's just the time is not yet right (but we are almost there). The socio-economic and technological conditions for industrialization to take wing and the democratic revolutions to take place shall unfold in the next few generations. But you need them in place. Also take into account the absolutist imperial monarchy system has worked quite well for TTL major civilizations in the last few centuries. You need major pressure from a well-developed, wealthy, and important middle class hungry for a serious share of power and say in government to build up. You also need a major shift in political thought to provide an ideological justification for a change to liberal democracy, be it of the republican or constitutional monarchy kind. The former can certainly drive the latter with time and effort. For the European states it almost surely involves a rediscovery and reinterpretation of the precedent of Classical Greco-Roman republics (shifting the character of the model from historical oligarchic to novel liberal democratic, but such reinterpretations and willful misunderstandings are par the course). I admittedly have less insight about which philosophical precedents in their own culture Indian and Sino-Japanese-Koreans liberal reformers and would-be democratic revolutionaries might use. I suppose a homegrown ideological basis to liberalism might develop in East Asia as a rediscovery and development of Mohism; I have no idea about what might fit in Indian philosophy. Of course Asian reformers can borrow ideas from European ones, although this assumes a later development.

To expand on the previous point, I despise determinism, including the Marxist-style socio-economic kind, but sometimes it has a point. In all likelihood the first liberal-democratic reforms and revolutions shall occur first in the states that have developed a sizable and strong middle class the most (which broadly plots to how much trade-oriented the empire is) and achieve industrialization first. As it concerns the former, the HRE, the NSE, and the ERE are the most advanced, then the Asian empires (it is arguable whether all of them are more or less on the same level, or Japan-Korea has a slight advantage), then the Slav and Indochinese states coming last (the West and Central African states are in another league entirely, since they are marginal in global trade terms and trapped into effective Iron Age stasis). As it concerns onset of industrialization, I expect it is going to start more or less in a parallel way in the HRE and the NSE first, and it shall spread to the other European and Asian states significantly later.

This is another issue entirely. As things stand, in the next 25-100 years the critical mass should build up for liberal-democratic political change to occur (or at least be seriously attempted) in several empires. Degree of success may vary, and in some places it may take the character of gradual and peaceful liberal-constitutional reforms, in others swing to radical and violent republican-democratic revolution (although not necessarily or even likely with a repressive and bloody Terror); everything is possible. Much the same way, the liberal-democratic revolutionary wave may leave the European colonial empires essentially intact, or a few settler colonies might break away. As a matter of fact, I picked the date of present-time in the TL precisely to avoid making a definitive decision on the outcome of this, especially as it concerns the European colonies. It makes for a substantially different world if the European colonies mostly remain bound to their mother countries or not, and the choice would be irreversible.

Indeed. As a matter of fact, given how circumstances stand, liberal-democratic reforms/revolutions stand most likely to occur in the HRE and the NSE, and/or their settler colonies, first; then the ERE; then say one of the Asian empires (if you ask my opinion, Japan-Korea or China stand as the most likely candidates in the continent; the former may or may not be more likely than the latter). The LRE, Russia, and the Indochinese kingdoms come as the least likely. Political changes between conservative/liberal or republican/monarchic aren't that important for the future of the TL, although some power going radical creates a serious ideological divide and the premise for major armed or Cold War global conflicts that didn't exist before. The real decision headache that I wished to avoid is the outcome of the colonies, since the fork about them creates substantially divergent outcomes at the global level. The HRE is always going to be the strongest power in the foreseeable future, but if it keeps the bulk of its settler colonies, it shall be the sole hyperpower in a multipolar world (although the superpower-candidate competitors shall be several). Likewise, long-term control of its colonies seems almost essential for the NSE to keep its great power status in the modern age once industrialization spreads globally.

To varying degrees, all the empires have some kind of proto-parliamentary body. Their role in government typically may range from consultory and infrequently summoned to having an important say when major changes in the realm's legislation or taxation have to take place. I suppose a good enough analogy for the latter situation would be the English Parliament between the Magna Carta and the English Civil War, although the analogy may not be completely fitting. In no place the parliament has developed the kind of supremacy that took shape in Western Europe after the Glorious Revolution or the 1789/1848 Revolutions. The emperors usually have complete control of executive powers, their ministers, the army, and the bureaucracy with little interference from the parliaments, and keep at least a significant latitude to legislate by decree, especially if major changes in taxation or the realm's fundamental laws aren't involved. Parliamentary supremacy belongs to the (near) future when TTL democratic reforms/revolutions shall occur.

As a matter of fact, TTL prevalent outcome of said reforms/revolutions may easily and probably even likely be US-style separation of powers and the imperial monarchy becoming elective and some kind of quasi-presidential system, if perhaps with the ruler staying in power for life or 'good behavior' (or until one retires for reasons of age or health). After all, TTL Europeans have been conditioned by a very strong millennial precedent, and their cherished Roman model before that, to think a strong, centralized, personal, 'imperial' executive is the most efficient and natural form of government, and they actually don't care much about the hereditary nature of the monarchy. They may easily have all kinds of good reasons to think that liberal democracy is fine, but British-style parliamentary supremacy is wrong, harmful, and unnatural. So the prevalent outcome of democracy's advent in the empires may be transition to a US-style system only with the 'president' ruling for life (at least de jure and at the beginning). I'm persuaded that in a world that had this kind of political evolution and overwhelmingly uses the Roman empire as a model (or is its direct evolution), a presidential system and separation of powers may be the prevalent outcome of evolution to democracy, much more so than parliamentarism.

Quite possibly at least in some cases, if this means the revolutions turn violent like the English Civil War, American Revolution, and 1848 Revolutions were. After all, may emperors many be unwilling to abandon their absolute grip on power w/o an armed struggle. If you mean turning as repressive as the French or worse Russian Revolutions, and having their own Terror, not necessarily and perhaps not even likely. Any equivalent of the French Revolutionary Wars may or may not occurs, it depends on how much of a threat a new democratic-republican regime would be seen as an existential threat by he other empires, its own willingness to export the revolution, the revolutionary empire's power in comparison to its conservative peers, and so on.

Good question. I can tell the LRE and Russia are the least likely to these kind of events on the near future because of emergent pressure for democracy, due to their backwardness. A civil war because of a dynastic/succession crisis might of course occur to them, but it is a different issue. Apart from this, I cannot see any of the other empires being especially at risk or safe, since they share sufficiently similar socio-economic conditions. So it all depends on political butterflies. I don't have any outcome especially favored in terms of preferred course, so I might give you an answer now and change it in a few days as I change my mind. As a matter of fact, to avoid making this kind of decision is why the TL stops when it does.

It would be if we weren't talking about different things and timeframes. My answer concerned the near future of the TL, which broadly equals our 1776-1848 Age of Atlantic Revolutions. Prevalent socio-economic conditions for that make the HRE, the NSE, and the ERE more or less as easy to industrialize and vulnerable to democratic revolution as OTL Western Europe and America, and the Slavic empires as backward and resistant as OTL Russia. A much greater focus on trade made the ERE rather more of a fertile ground for industrialization and revolution in this age than our Ottoman Empire, more or less just like the other two trade-oriented empires. On the other hand, TTL Russia-Ukraine is not much different from its OTL equivalent. IOTL Poland did experience a few failed revolutions, but they were related to conditions (aristocratic anarchy and Russian domination) that are absent here. Further down the line, when TTL shall experience its own version of the Victorian Age and the second wave of industrialization, the Slavic lands may easily become as vulnerable to revolution as our Russia. More or less the same conditions should apply to the Asian empires, for similar reasons. This at least as it concerns the equivalent of our 1905/1911/February Revolutions, since the occurrence of anything remotely similar to communism or fascism is much more questionable and exposed to major butterflies. Some political backlash to the social ills of early industrialization is inevitable, but it might take many different forms. We already know TTL Industrial Age shall be radically different since nationalism won't be a significant political force. I hope this clarification settles the misunderstanding.