futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 26, 2016 2:01:31 GMT
What if, after Ethiopia's defeat of Italy in 1896, Russia would see Ethiopia (the only Orthodox Christian country in Africa during this time) as a potential ally and as a vehicle for it to spread it influence in Africa and thus offer Ethiopia an *informal* alliance and *a lot* of aid? Also, in this scenario, Russia's ally France will eventually join in on the fun and will thus begin making large-scale investments in Ethiopia (as well as giving large-scale loans to Ethiopia).
Anyway, is Ethiopia able to begin modernizing and industrializing in the early 20th century in this TL?
Also, if so, how exactly does a more modern and industrialized Ethiopia affect the political (including the geopolitical) situation in the rest of Africa and beyond starting from the early 20th century?
Any thoughts on all of this?
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 26, 2016 2:05:58 GMT
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 26, 2016 2:09:18 GMT
What if, after Ethiopia's defeat of Italy in 1896, Russia would see Ethiopia (the only Orthodox Christian country in Africa during this time) as a potential ally and as a vehicle for it to spread it influence in Africa and thus offer Ethiopia an *informal* alliance and *a lot* of aid? Also, in this scenario, Russia's ally France will eventually join in on the fun and will thus begin making large-scale investments in Ethiopia (as well as giving large-scale loans to Ethiopia). Anyway, is Ethiopia able to begin modernizing and industrializing in the early 20th century in this TL? Also, if so, how exactly does a more modern and industrialized Ethiopia affect the political (including the geopolitical) situation in the rest of Africa and beyond starting from the early 20th century? Any thoughts on all of this? Would Ethiopia still be a ally of Russia even after the Russian Revolution.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 26, 2016 2:53:32 GMT
What if, after Ethiopia's defeat of Italy in 1896, Russia would see Ethiopia (the only Orthodox Christian country in Africa during this time) as a potential ally and as a vehicle for it to spread it influence in Africa and thus offer Ethiopia an *informal* alliance and *a lot* of aid? Also, in this scenario, Russia's ally France will eventually join in on the fun and will thus begin making large-scale investments in Ethiopia (as well as giving large-scale loans to Ethiopia). Anyway, is Ethiopia able to begin modernizing and industrializing in the early 20th century in this TL? Also, if so, how exactly does a more modern and industrialized Ethiopia affect the political (including the geopolitical) situation in the rest of Africa and beyond starting from the early 20th century? Any thoughts on all of this? Would Ethiopia still be a ally of Russia even after the Russian Revolution. If the Russian Revolution still occurs in this TL, possibly Yes. After all, in addition to reasons of inertia, both Ethiopia and the Soviet Union would (officially) be opposed to colonialism and imperialism.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 26, 2016 2:56:31 GMT
Would Ethiopia still be a ally of Russia even after the Russian Revolution. If the Russian Revolution still occurs in this TL, possibly Yes. After all, in addition to reasons of inertia, both Ethiopia and the Soviet Union would (officially) be opposed to colonialism and imperialism. Only IF there is no World War I to begin with, i do not see any reason why and how a Franco-Russo-Ethiopian Alliance could prevent that.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 26, 2016 6:27:13 GMT
If the Russian Revolution still occurs in this TL, possibly Yes. After all, in addition to reasons of inertia, both Ethiopia and the Soviet Union would (officially) be opposed to colonialism and imperialism. Only IF there is no World War I to begin with, i do not see any reason why and how a Franco-Russo-Ethiopian Alliance could prevent that. The butterfly effect can result in Franz Ferdinand not getting assassinated and thus in the outbreak of World War I being delayed until, say, 1915 or 1916.
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cornelis
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Post by cornelis on Aug 26, 2016 9:59:03 GMT
The French did make important investments, namely the Djibouti-Ethiopian railway, begun in 1897 and finished 1917. Started by a private company backed by British and French trusts, it ended under the firm control of the Djibouti colonial authority. The main thing is to avoid the 1906 treaty, which divided Ethiopia in three zones of influence : British, French and Italian. Will the Russian alliance be enough to keep Ethiopia out of the colonial projects (British North-South, French West-East) ?
Religiously speaking, the Christians of Ethiopia were members of the Coptic Church, meaning they are miaphysists no in communion with the "classic" Orthodox Church (the Egyptian Church in Communion with the Orthodoxs is the Greek Orthodox Church in Egypt). These religious differences are important in the Middle East and there were no religious talks between the Copts and the Greek Orthodoxs before the 1980'. So, for the Ethiopians, the Russians were heretics, little more than Nestorians.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 26, 2016 10:30:07 GMT
Well a joint French-Russia bid to influence and develop Ethiopia in ~1896 is going to cause problems with Britain as both great powers are rivals to Britain and Ethiopia potential threatens the Red Sea route from Britain to India, a very important military and economic route for Britain. Less so as presuming the war with Italy goes OTL so Italians attempts to conquer Ethiopia proper are defeated but they do keep Eritrea so Ethiopia has no actual coastline.
Of course Italy is also likely to be worried and upset by since an alliance so it will seek to oppose such influence.
Its possible that the tension will be enough that Britain and Germany will become allies, which would totally change just about everything. You may not get a WWI or if it occurs something else is totally different.
If you still get the Anglo-French and then Anglo-Russian ententes in the face of a common perceived German threat this is less of a problem but as part of the deal since another powers influence in Ethiopia was seen as a threat to both the sea link to India and the east and also a potential one to Britain's position in Egypt you are likely to see some sort of deal on influence. The biggest butterfly here, if France, Russia and Britain come to terms is that possibly Italy feels threatened enough to stay in the central powers bloc so might be on the other side in a WWI. Possibly instead of seeking to oppose French influence in Morocco Kaiser Wilhelm makes a stand on supporting Italy's position in Eritrea, which is likely to be politically more successful for Germany.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 26, 2016 14:10:47 GMT
1. The French did make important investments, namely the Djibouti-Ethiopian railway, begun in 1897 and finished 1917. Started by a private company backed by British and French trusts, it ended under the firm control of the Djibouti colonial authority. 2. The main thing is to avoid the 1906 treaty, which divided Ethiopia in three zones of influence : British, French and Italian. Will the Russian alliance be enough to keep Ethiopia out of the colonial projects (British North-South, French West-East) ? 3. Religiously speaking, the Christians of Ethiopia were members of the Coptic Church, meaning they are miaphysists no in communion with the "classic" Orthodox Church (the Egyptian Church in Communion with the Orthodoxs is the Greek Orthodox Church in Egypt). These religious differences are important in the Middle East and there were no religious talks between the Copts and the Greek Orthodoxs before the 1980'. So, for the Ethiopians, the Russians were heretics, little more than Nestorians. 1. Investing in one railroad is certainly nowhere near enough, though. 2. Possibly Yes. Also, though, do you please have a link to this 1906 agreement? 3. Wouldn't Ethiopia have accepted any ally that it can get, though?
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 26, 2016 14:15:57 GMT
1. Well a joint French-Russia bid to influence and develop Ethiopia in ~1896 is going to cause problems with Britain as both great powers are rivals to Britain and Ethiopia potential threatens the Red Sea route from Britain to India, a very important military and economic route for Britain. Less so as presuming the war with Italy goes OTL so Italians attempts to conquer Ethiopia proper are defeated but they do keep Eritrea so Ethiopia has no actual coastline. 2. Of course Italy is also likely to be worried and upset by since an alliance so it will seek to oppose such influence. 3. Its possible that the tension will be enough that Britain and Germany will become allies, which would totally change just about everything. You may not get a WWI or if it occurs something else is totally different. 4. If you still get the Anglo-French and then Anglo-Russian ententes in the face of a common perceived German threat this is less of a problem but as part of the deal since another powers influence in Ethiopia was seen as a threat to both the sea link to India and the east and also a potential one to Britain's position in Egypt you are likely to see some sort of deal on influence. 5. The biggest butterfly here, if France, Russia and Britain come to terms is that possibly Italy feels threatened enough to stay in the central powers bloc so might be on the other side in a WWI. 6. Possibly instead of seeking to oppose French influence in Morocco Kaiser Wilhelm makes a stand on supporting Italy's position in Eritrea, which is likely to be politically more successful for Germany. 1. What about after the Anglo-French and Anglo-Russian Ententes are signed, though? 2. Agreed. 3. Unlikely due to both the Anglo-German naval arms race and German Kaiser Wilhelm II's stupidity, in my honest opinion. Indeed, a German Kaiser with brains could have probably secured an Anglo-German alliance; however, "Kaiser Bill" simply doesn't appear to have been such a German Kaiser! 4. Completely agreed. 5. Wouldn't Trieste, Trentino, and the Adriatic be much more important to Italy than its African colonies, though? 6. Care to please elaborate on the "more successful" part please? After all, didn't Germany have a strong moral case in regards to Morocco in 1911 in our TL but blew it due to its idiocy?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 26, 2016 14:17:12 GMT
Also, though, do you please have a link to this 1906 agreement? Here it is, its called the Tripartite Treaty (1906) between France, Italy, and the United Kingdom concerning Ethiopian sovereignty and railroad construction. In assessing the events which brought Great Britain and France from the edge of war at Fashoda in 1898 to the alliance of 1914, scholars have paid little attention to the settlement of Anglo-French differences in the independent African empire of Ethiopia. The resolution of Ethiopian problems in 1906 was nonetheless important in forging close Anglo-French relations, especially when viewed within the context of the better-known Entente Cordiale of 1904. By excluding Anglo-French conflicting Ethiopian interests from the already difficult entente negotiations, British and French statesmen removed a potential stumbling block to that important and seminal agreement. In a more positive vein, the subsequent signing of a separate Tripartite Treaty on Ethiopia—the Italians were the third signatory—actively reinforced the Entente Cordiale itself. To the French the Ethiopian agreement was a confirmation of British good faith in implementing the spirit of the entente beyond areas specified in the more important accord of 1904. To the British it was an object lesson that certain imperial interests in Ethiopia should not jeopardize generally improving relations with France. To both countries the Tripartite Treaty of 1906 tidied unfinished business of the entente and eliminated to each nation's general satisfaction a nagging local conflict. French Foreign Minister Theophile Delcassé had wanted to include Ethiopia in the entente agreement. During the course of the negotiations he suggested to his English counterpart Lord Lansdowne a “comprehensive settlement” of colonial-imperial differences. While individuals in the British Foreign Office considered adding Ethiopia to the larger rapprochement over Egypt and Morocco, the British cabinet decided to postpone Ethiopian matters until after conclusion of the Entente Cordiale. In good part this decision reflected respect for the complexity of strategic, financial, and personal rivalries of the two great imperial powers in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 26, 2016 14:19:00 GMT
Also, though, do you please have a link to this 1906 agreement? Here it is, its called the Tripartite Treaty (1906) between France, Italy, and the United Kingdom concerning Ethiopian sovereignty and railroad construction. In assessing the events which brought Great Britain and France from the edge of war at Fashoda in 1898 to the alliance of 1914, scholars have paid little attention to the settlement of Anglo-French differences in the independent African empire of Ethiopia. The resolution of Ethiopian problems in 1906 was nonetheless important in forging close Anglo-French relations, especially when viewed within the context of the better-known Entente Cordiale of 1904. By excluding Anglo-French conflicting Ethiopian interests from the already difficult entente negotiations, British and French statesmen removed a potential stumbling block to that important and seminal agreement. In a more positive vein, the subsequent signing of a separate Tripartite Treaty on Ethiopia—the Italians were the third signatory—actively reinforced the Entente Cordiale itself. To the French the Ethiopian agreement was a confirmation of British good faith in implementing the spirit of the entente beyond areas specified in the more important accord of 1904. To the British it was an object lesson that certain imperial interests in Ethiopia should not jeopardize generally improving relations with France. To both countries the Tripartite Treaty of 1906 tidied unfinished business of the entente and eliminated to each nation's general satisfaction a nagging local conflict. French Foreign Minister Theophile Delcassé had wanted to include Ethiopia in the entente agreement. During the course of the negotiations he suggested to his English counterpart Lord Lansdowne a “comprehensive settlement” of colonial-imperial differences. While individuals in the British Foreign Office considered adding Ethiopia to the larger rapprochement over Egypt and Morocco, the British cabinet decided to postpone Ethiopian matters until after conclusion of the Entente Cordiale. In good part this decision reflected respect for the complexity of strategic, financial, and personal rivalries of the two great imperial powers in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. Merci beaucoup, LordRoel!
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 26, 2016 14:22:55 GMT
Here it is, its called the Tripartite Treaty (1906) between France, Italy, and the United Kingdom concerning Ethiopian sovereignty and railroad construction. In assessing the events which brought Great Britain and France from the edge of war at Fashoda in 1898 to the alliance of 1914, scholars have paid little attention to the settlement of Anglo-French differences in the independent African empire of Ethiopia. The resolution of Ethiopian problems in 1906 was nonetheless important in forging close Anglo-French relations, especially when viewed within the context of the better-known Entente Cordiale of 1904. By excluding Anglo-French conflicting Ethiopian interests from the already difficult entente negotiations, British and French statesmen removed a potential stumbling block to that important and seminal agreement. In a more positive vein, the subsequent signing of a separate Tripartite Treaty on Ethiopia—the Italians were the third signatory—actively reinforced the Entente Cordiale itself. To the French the Ethiopian agreement was a confirmation of British good faith in implementing the spirit of the entente beyond areas specified in the more important accord of 1904. To the British it was an object lesson that certain imperial interests in Ethiopia should not jeopardize generally improving relations with France. To both countries the Tripartite Treaty of 1906 tidied unfinished business of the entente and eliminated to each nation's general satisfaction a nagging local conflict. French Foreign Minister Theophile Delcassé had wanted to include Ethiopia in the entente agreement. During the course of the negotiations he suggested to his English counterpart Lord Lansdowne a “comprehensive settlement” of colonial-imperial differences. While individuals in the British Foreign Office considered adding Ethiopia to the larger rapprochement over Egypt and Morocco, the British cabinet decided to postpone Ethiopian matters until after conclusion of the Entente Cordiale. In good part this decision reflected respect for the complexity of strategic, financial, and personal rivalries of the two great imperial powers in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. Merci beaucoup, LordRoel! Well do not thank me, thank Google. But i wonder would Ethiopia in World War I launch stacks against the Ottoman Empire as they are the only Central Powers member they can strike, unless Italy in this universe joins them.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 26, 2016 19:36:55 GMT
1. Well a joint French-Russia bid to influence and develop Ethiopia in ~1896 is going to cause problems with Britain as both great powers are rivals to Britain and Ethiopia potential threatens the Red Sea route from Britain to India, a very important military and economic route for Britain. Less so as presuming the war with Italy goes OTL so Italians attempts to conquer Ethiopia proper are defeated but they do keep Eritrea so Ethiopia has no actual coastline. 2. Of course Italy is also likely to be worried and upset by since an alliance so it will seek to oppose such influence. 3. Its possible that the tension will be enough that Britain and Germany will become allies, which would totally change just about everything. You may not get a WWI or if it occurs something else is totally different. 4. If you still get the Anglo-French and then Anglo-Russian ententes in the face of a common perceived German threat this is less of a problem but as part of the deal since another powers influence in Ethiopia was seen as a threat to both the sea link to India and the east and also a potential one to Britain's position in Egypt you are likely to see some sort of deal on influence. 5. The biggest butterfly here, if France, Russia and Britain come to terms is that possibly Italy feels threatened enough to stay in the central powers bloc so might be on the other side in a WWI. 6. Possibly instead of seeking to oppose French influence in Morocco Kaiser Wilhelm makes a stand on supporting Italy's position in Eritrea, which is likely to be politically more successful for Germany. 1. What about after the Anglo-French and Anglo-Russian Ententes are signed, though? 2. Agreed. 3. Unlikely due to both the Anglo-German naval arms race and German Kaiser Wilhelm II's stupidity, in my honest opinion. Indeed, a German Kaiser with brains could have probably secured an Anglo-German alliance; however, "Kaiser Bill" simply doesn't appear to have been such a German Kaiser! 4. Completely agreed. 5. Wouldn't Trieste, Trentino, and the Adriatic be much more important to Italy than its African colonies, though? 6. Care to please elaborate on the "more successful" part please? After all, didn't Germany have a strong moral case in regards to Morocco in 1911 in our TL but blew it due to its idiocy? 1) - see my point 4. 3) - Agree its probably unlikely given Wilhelm and Tirpitz but I'm reluctant to rule anything out because of the possible butterflies. With both Italy and Britain concerned about Franco-Russian involvement in Ethiopia its possible that Rome might be the link bringing London and Berlin to some agreement. 5) More important than Eritrea on its own but after the defeat by Ethiopia a threat to the colony would be a sore point. Plus you could also add Nice, Savoy, Corsica and Tunisia if you think about Italy in a CP alliance. 6) Basically thinking that since Italy already has an internationally accepted, by Europe anyway, presence in Eritrea a German visit in supporting that presence is going to be more difficult to undermine by the entente power.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 26, 2016 23:09:33 GMT
1. What about after the Anglo-French and Anglo-Russian Ententes are signed, though? 2. Agreed. 3. Unlikely due to both the Anglo-German naval arms race and German Kaiser Wilhelm II's stupidity, in my honest opinion. Indeed, a German Kaiser with brains could have probably secured an Anglo-German alliance; however, "Kaiser Bill" simply doesn't appear to have been such a German Kaiser! 4. Completely agreed. 5. Wouldn't Trieste, Trentino, and the Adriatic be much more important to Italy than its African colonies, though? 6. Care to please elaborate on the "more successful" part please? After all, didn't Germany have a strong moral case in regards to Morocco in 1911 in our TL but blew it due to its idiocy? 1) - see my point 4. 3) - Agree its probably unlikely given Wilhelm and Tirpitz but I'm reluctant to rule anything out because of the possible butterflies. With both Italy and Britain concerned about Franco-Russian involvement in Ethiopia its possible that Rome might be the link bringing London and Berlin to some agreement. 5) More important than Eritrea on its own but after the defeat by Ethiopia a threat to the colony would be a sore point. Plus you could also add Nice, Savoy, Corsica and Tunisia if you think about Italy in a CP alliance. 6) Basically thinking that since Italy already has an internationally accepted, by Europe anyway, presence in Eritrea a German visit in supporting that presence is going to be more difficult to undermine by the entente power. 1. OK. 3. OK. However, in such a TL, World War I certainly isn't going to break out as early as the 1910s. After all, that would certainly be suicide for both Russia and France! 5. Exactly how much economic value did Eritrea actually have for Italy, though? Also, were Nice, Savoy, Corsica, and Tunisia as important for Italy as Trentino and the various Adriatic territories were? In addition to this, couldn't one argue that Corsica was already a lost case for Italy by that point in time due to the historical legacy of the (Corsican) Bonaparte family in France? 6. Wasn't Morocco's independence accepted by international powers (in the form of international treaties) as late as the early 20th century, though? If so, wouldn't France's attempts to establish a protectorate in Morocco in 1911 in our TL have had little legal basis to justify them? If so, I would like to point out that France still succeeded in establishing a protectorate over Morocco in our TL in 1912. Plus, wouldn't both France and Russia (and even Ethiopia, for that matter) have been perfectly willing to recognize Italy's rule over Eritrea in this TL? After all, Eritrea seems like very small potatoes to anger Italy over!
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