futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 19, 2016 2:56:57 GMT
What if Morocco would have somehow had competent leadership in the two decades before the start of World War I and would have thus maintained its independence up to World War I?
What exactly would have occurred to Morocco afterwards in this scenario?
Indeed, any thoughts on this?
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 19, 2016 4:52:34 GMT
I expect the Allies to court Morocco heavily to maintain access to the Mediterranean, and the Central Powers would do the same to deny said sea to the British. It would still be accessible due to France and Italy, but it would be harder. A Central Powers-aligned Morocco could be used to strike Gibraltar as well as French Algeria.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 19, 2016 11:58:53 GMT
I expect the Allies to court Morocco heavily to maintain access to the Mediterranean, and the Central Powers would do the same to deny said sea to the British. It would still be accessible due to France and Italy, but it would be harder. A Central Powers-aligned Morocco could be used to strike Gibraltar as well as French Algeria. It would depend on the exact circumstances but barring radical changes I doubt that Morocco would ally with the CP as it would be too vulnerable and isolated. Its a long way away from Germany and can be attacked by sea or overland from French Algeria, which has large forces deployed there. Far more likely it hunkers down to avoid being dragged into the chaos and destruction. Possibly some limited aid to the allies to try and gain some goodwill and hence possible protection, once it decides those powers are likely to win but can't really see anything else.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 20, 2016 4:08:28 GMT
I expect the Allies to court Morocco heavily to maintain access to the Mediterranean, and the Central Powers would do the same to deny said sea to the British. It would still be accessible due to France and Italy, but it would be harder. A Central Powers-aligned Morocco could be used to strike Gibraltar as well as French Algeria. It would depend on the exact circumstances but barring radical changes I doubt that Morocco would ally with the CP as it would be too vulnerable and isolated. Its a long way away from Germany and can be attacked by sea or overland from French Algeria, which has large forces deployed there. Far more likely it hunkers down to avoid being dragged into the chaos and destruction. Possibly some limited aid to the allies to try and gain some goodwill and hence possible protection, once it decides those powers are likely to win but can't really see anything else. Completely agreed. After all, couldn't Morocco have become a French protectorate after the end of World War I if Morocco would have entered World War I on the side of the Central Powers in this scenario?
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jul 2, 2016 7:50:54 GMT
Also, out of curiosity--how would Moroccan life, culture, politics, et cetera develop without almost half a century of French rule?
Indeed, any thoughts on this?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 2, 2016 8:04:25 GMT
Also, out of curiosity--how would Moroccan life, culture, politics, et cetera develop without almost half a century of French rule? Indeed, any thoughts on this? Is Morocco a monarchy still.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 2, 2016 13:29:30 GMT
Also, out of curiosity--how would Moroccan life, culture, politics, et cetera develop without almost half a century of French rule? Indeed, any thoughts on this? Is Morocco a monarchy still. Yes. I think its the only Arab monarchy left west of the Jordan-Saudi-Gulf region. It was a monarchy throughout the French protectorate.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 2, 2016 13:32:10 GMT
Is Morocco a monarchy still. Yes. I think its the only Arab monarchy left west of the Jordan-Saudi-Gulf region. It was a monarchy throughout the French protectorate. Would it be pro-French or would it look to Spain or even Germany to help it keep its Independence.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 2, 2016 14:13:24 GMT
Yes. I think its the only Arab monarchy left west of the Jordan-Saudi-Gulf region. It was a monarchy throughout the French protectorate. Would it be pro-French or would it look to Spain or even Germany to help it keep its Independence. I'm not sure how it viewed the German behaviour which led to the two Moroccoian crisis but once Germany was defeated in WWI it didn't have any real influence. At least before the rise of Hitler and I doubt it would have been significant before the fall of France. If this still occurs you have a basically neutral Morocco alongside Vichy France and its possible that Hitler might seek to obtain basing rights there. Which could make the U boat threat markedly more dangerous. And/or prompt an earlier invasion of Morocco by Britain although how practical that would have been depending on the circumstances. Of course there is one other potentially important butterfly I can think of. If Morocco is fully independent of France there is no basis for its northern section to become a Spanish protectorate - basically to prevent France controlling the southern part of the strait of Gibraltar. This is likely to impact on Spanish history as they would avoid the Rif war, see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rif_War which prompted a coup in 1923. Furthermore without this territory and the forces based here Franco's coup that started the Spanish civil war in 1936 is also a lot harder. So you might see a royalist or even communist Spain resulting depending on events.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 2, 2016 14:15:31 GMT
Would it be pro-French or would it look to Spain or even Germany to help it keep its Independence. I'm not sure how it viewed the German behaviour which led to the two Moroccoian crisis but once Germany was defeated in WWI it didn't have any real influence. At least before the rise of Hitler and I doubt it would have been significant before the fall of France. If this still occurs you have a basically neutral Morocco alongside Vichy France and its possible that Hitler might seek to obtain basing rights there. Which could make the U boat threat markedly more dangerous. And/or prompt an earlier invasion of Morocco by Britain although how practical that would have been depending on the circumstances. Of course there is one other potentially important butterfly I can think of. If Morocco is fully independent of France there is no basis for its northern section to become a Spanish protectorate - basically to prevent France controlling the southern part of the strait of Gibraltar. This is likely to impact on Spanish history as they would avoid the Rif war, see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rif_War which prompted a coup in 1923. Furthermore without this territory and the forces based here Franco's coup that started the Spanish civil war in 1936 is also a lot harder. So you might see a royalist or even communist Spain resulting depending on events. Maybe Franco will be commander of the Spanish forces on the Balearic Islands in this universe.
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jul 2, 2016 19:44:12 GMT
I'm not sure how it viewed the German behaviour which led to the two Moroccoian crisis but once Germany was defeated in WWI it didn't have any real influence. At least before the rise of Hitler and I doubt it would have been significant before the fall of France. If this still occurs you have a basically neutral Morocco alongside Vichy France and its possible that Hitler might seek to obtain basing rights there. Which could make the U boat threat markedly more dangerous. And/or prompt an earlier invasion of Morocco by Britain although how practical that would have been depending on the circumstances. Of course there is one other potentially important butterfly I can think of. If Morocco is fully independent of France there is no basis for its northern section to become a Spanish protectorate - basically to prevent France controlling the southern part of the strait of Gibraltar. This is likely to impact on Spanish history as they would avoid the Rif war, see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rif_War which prompted a coup in 1923. Furthermore without this territory and the forces based here Franco's coup that started the Spanish civil war in 1936 is also a lot harder. So you might see a royalist or even communist Spain resulting depending on events. Maybe Franco will be commander of the Spanish forces on the Balearic Islands in this universe. Perhaps. If it goes Communist, expect Hitler to be very aggressive against it, perhaps not invading but supporting rebels. The Soviet Union could be using them as a puppet in the war, and maybe a Cold War.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 2, 2016 19:54:34 GMT
Maybe Franco will be commander of the Spanish forces on the Balearic Islands in this universe. Perhaps. If it goes Communist, expect Hitler to be very aggressive against it, perhaps not invading but supporting rebels. The Soviet Union could be using them as a puppet in the war, and maybe a Cold War. Hitler would make a ally out of Portugal and we will see the Germans invading a Communist Spain in 1941 or 1942, mean time Morocco will stay stay neutral.
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jul 2, 2016 20:07:16 GMT
Perhaps. If it goes Communist, expect Hitler to be very aggressive against it, perhaps not invading but supporting rebels. The Soviet Union could be using them as a puppet in the war, and maybe a Cold War. Hitler would make a ally out of Portugal and we will see the Germans invading a Communist Spain in 1941 or 1942, mean time Morocco will stay stay neutral. The Nazis would likely have the help of Vichy France, at least to keep France occupied.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 2, 2016 20:13:35 GMT
Hitler would make a ally out of Portugal and we will see the Germans invading a Communist Spain in 1941 or 1942, mean time Morocco will stay stay neutral. The Nazis would likely have the help of Vichy France, at least to keep France occupied. And Morocco will try it best to remain neutral or will they pick a side.
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jul 2, 2016 20:16:11 GMT
The Nazis would likely have the help of Vichy France, at least to keep France occupied. And Morocco will try it best to remain neutral or will they pick a side. The Moroccans will likely try to stay neutral but both sides would try to court them.
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