The 4th Indian Division - If it stays part of Operation Compass rather than being sent south

   Sorry was meaning to get back to this but been a bit distracted/lazy plus some gaming and a certain footie tournament.

  I think if the British reach close enough to have aircraft over Tripoli with any reliability Libya falls unless the Axis decide to force Vichy's hands over Tunisia.  If that happens there is the possibility that the local French forces in Tunisia will take serious umbridge and oppose such a move.  If supported by others in N Africa they can probably defeat any such landings but its likely to mean the occupation of the rest of the French mainland and Corsica.  If so its quite likely that a lot of the colonies that supported Vichy will switch to the Free French - or their successor as a number of the people in N Africa now on the allied side could have at least as much influence as de Gaulle.  FIC could be a very awkward case as the northern region has already been occupied in 1940 and if its French leadership tries to change sides it's likely to prompt an earlier Japanese occupation of the rest, which would come somewhat earlier than OTL and possibly similarly prompt an earlier US lead embargo and other economic actions.

  Questions coming to find.

a)  If Compass is expanded earlier as the scenario suggests and as a result an invasion of Tripolitania succeeds and Tripoli is isolated - either before the initial rump German forces under Rommel arrives or they are defeated alongside the Italians do the Axis stick or twist by seeking to occupy Tunisia as a bridge to Libya?  Hitler tended to gamble and is likely to dismiss the feelings of the defeated French and Mussolini is probably desperate for aid.  However Hitler is already committed to helping out the Italians in Greece - which will be a much higher priority to him given his concerns about Ploiesti's oil - and he has his desperately desired Operation Barbarossa coming up.  With the Italian fleet already mauled and concerns about and respect for the RN he might decide that the Med is a suitable buffer with nothing important to the Axis - other than Italian prestige - is south of it while Britain can be forced into submission after the conquest of the USSR. - Plus its likely that the German military will be even more concerned about such an operation and the potential costs. - One point here would be depending on the timing would the coup in Yugoslavia have occurred yet.

b)  If the Axis do decide on such a move how quickly would they organise it and how much warning might the French, especially their military in Tunisia learn about it?  If as is very likely the bulk of the force involved are Italian that's likely to make them more angry as while they respect and fear the Germans they seem to have had a very low opinion of the Italians - which would be boosted by the latter's poor performances in Greece and N Africa so far and also fear about it being the 1st step in Italy staking a claim to at least Tunisia.

c)  If the French in Tunisia decide to fight would the decision be before or after any landings start - hence the importance of question b)  If before then the Axis have very little chance of success as an amphibious assault is a very difficult operation against prepared defenders, especially if organised quickly while they would also fear a RN response in support of resisting French forces.  If somehow their caught by surprise or initial resistance is divided then the Axis could well gain control of a port or two but a lot would depend on how quickly they could get air bases established in the region and how much resistance the French could mobilize, including on transport lines to the south and Tripoli.  Sabotaging some of the railway lines and any bridges could seriously hamper Axis aid reaching Tripoli in time.

d)  If a lodgement is established in Tunisia how does the rest of FNA react?  If there's more general resistance then its likely that the Axis will be unable to break out quickly and if Britain can get additional forces/equipment via Morocco/Algeria fast enough it could prove too much of problem for the Axis, especially given Hitler's overriding desire to head east.

  Basically for my scenario I need Libya to fall - and definitely FNA would help greatly in the wider conflict as it makes the allied position stronger - but I think its quite possible and it does potentially greatly change the nature of the rest of the war, especially for Britain.