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Post by Max Sinister on May 22, 2024 16:35:07 GMT
The Japanese had considered the strike at Pearl Harbor for quite some time before they did it - since they had the idea after the battle of Taranto. No idea what exactly FDR thought, but he certainly must have considered that a war might be possible. Things had escalated more and more, that's for sure - the Japanese expanding, the US boycotting them...
My question is: What if some incident (similar as Nomonhan) had happened somewhere in this big theater so that a war would've started before either side was as ready as the Japanese had been in December 1941?
My guess: This would hurt the Japanese in the short and long run. The WAllies still would need time to build up the armed forces to strike back, but if Pearl Harbor doesn't work as a surprise strike, the US Navy will be much stronger.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 22, 2024 17:41:06 GMT
The Japanese had considered the strike at Pearl Harbor for quite some time before they did it - since they had the idea after the battle of Taranto. No idea what exactly FDR thought, but he certainly must have considered that a war might be possible. Things had escalated more and more, that's for sure - the Japanese expanding, the US boycotting them...
My question is: What if some incident (similar as Nomonhan) had happened somewhere in this big theater so that a war would've started before either side was as ready as the Japanese had been in December 1941? My guess: This would hurt the Japanese in the short and long run. The WAllies still would need time to build up the armed forces to strike back, but if Pearl Harbor doesn't work as a surprise strike, the US Navy will be much stronger.
What about the USS Panay incident of 1937 going hot ore if it draws in the Americans, the January 28 incident in 1932, ore is that to early. |
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Post by Max Sinister on May 22, 2024 18:59:39 GMT
The Japanese had considered the strike at Pearl Harbor for quite some time before they did it - since they had the idea after the battle of Taranto. No idea what exactly FDR thought, but he certainly must have considered that a war might be possible. Things had escalated more and more, that's for sure - the Japanese expanding, the US boycotting them...
My question is: What if some incident (similar as Nomonhan) had happened somewhere in this big theater so that a war would've started before either side was as ready as the Japanese had been in December 1941? My guess: This would hurt the Japanese in the short and long run. The WAllies still would need time to build up the armed forces to strike back, but if Pearl Harbor doesn't work as a surprise strike, the US Navy will be much stronger.
What about the USS Panay incident of 1937 going hot ore if it draws in the Americans, the January 28 incident in 1932, ore is that to early. Maybe, but I had rather thought about something around late 1941.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 22, 2024 19:18:40 GMT
Maybe, but I had rather thought about something around late 1941. But before OTL Pearl Harbor. |
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Post by Max Sinister on May 22, 2024 19:42:28 GMT
Maybe, but I had rather thought about something around late 1941. But before OTL Pearl Harbor. Obviously!
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Post by American hist on May 23, 2024 4:04:17 GMT
No Pearl Harbor allows the possibility the axis could’ve won World War II as Pearl Harbor prove more devastating and psychologically for the American allowing them to stomach the losses of World War II.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 23, 2024 22:56:05 GMT
No Pearl Harbor allows the possibility the axis could’ve won World War II as Pearl Harbor prove more devastating and psychologically for the American allowing them to stomach the losses of World War II.
That's definitely a possibility in terms of US determination to fight the war in both areas to unconditional surrender. A lot would depend on how the US joined the war in TTL. Something seen as a sneak attack, even if it wasn't could motivate the US a fair bit but not as much as the shock of Pearl Harbour. Of course running into details of Japanese atrocities, especially in the Philippines, which are still very likely to be conquered could stoke things up later in the conflict.
The other issue if the Pacific war comes about due to some largely accidental clash between the US and Japan then how quickly does it get merged into the war in Europe? Churchill will probably want to declare war in support of the US and hoping for a reciprocal US dow on Germany but Britain is even more stretched during most of 41 than it is at the end. Depending on the timing you could have Britain reeling from disaster's in Greece and N Africa and also tied up in E Africa and suppressing pro-Axis movements in Syria, Iraq and Iran. Coupled with the Soviets looking on the verge of collapse from ~June 41 and Australia and New Zealand are likely to oppose such a move with the bulk of their regular forces in the ME region. Malaya is even less defended than OTL Dec 41 and with no real scope for reinforcements to come in it would be a risky measure. Although since the Japanese are also caught by surprise at the outbreak of war and with the US Pacific fleet not devastated its still possible that a good chunk of SE Asia could be saved, which would greatly shorten the war in the Pacific/Far East.
Similarly with his forces deep in Russia and Japan not having had the dramatic strike against Pearl would Hitler be willing to declare war on the US as his did OTL. Especially if Britain hasn't yet declared war on Japan, would he see the benefit of keeping the two wars independent operations?
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Post by Max Sinister on May 25, 2024 18:29:07 GMT
No Pearl Harbor allows the possibility the axis could’ve won World War II as Pearl Harbor prove more devastating and psychologically for the American allowing them to stomach the losses of World War II. Were the Japanese planes ready to strike at any day even months before the command came? If not, the Americans will have the opportunity to disperse their fleet, or otherwise prepared better.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 25, 2024 18:32:00 GMT
No Pearl Harbor allows the possibility the axis could’ve won World War II as Pearl Harbor prove more devastating and psychologically for the American allowing them to stomach the losses of World War II. Were the Japanese planes ready to strike at any day even months before the command came? If not, the Americans will have the opportunity to disperse their fleet, or otherwise prepared better. While Pearl Harbor was devastating for the Americans, in the end it was better than the United States Fleet being alerted and gone to sea to face the Japanese, as in Pearl Harbor the ships where able to be salvage. |
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Post by Max Sinister on May 25, 2024 19:04:14 GMT
Were the Japanese planes ready to strike at any day even months before the command came? If not, the Americans will have the opportunity to disperse their fleet, or otherwise prepared better. While Pearl Harbor was devastating for the Americans, in the end it was better than the United States Fleet being alerted and gone to sea to face the Japanese, as in Pearl Harbor the ships where able to be salvage. Hmm. I'll have to think about this.
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Post by American hist on May 25, 2024 19:05:45 GMT
lordroel,in a axis victory I would much rather read a alternative history where the Americans fleet went to sea And later on the side, Pearl Harbor itself. I remember listening From World War II documentary have been much more devastating had the American ships been sent out to sea.
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575
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There is no Purgatory for warcriminals - they go directly to Hell!
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Post by 575 on May 25, 2024 19:12:47 GMT
No Pearl Harbor allows the possibility the axis could’ve won World War II as Pearl Harbor prove more devastating and psychologically for the American allowing them to stomach the losses of World War II. Were the Japanese planes ready to strike at any day even months before the command came? If not, the Americans will have the opportunity to disperse their fleet, or otherwise prepared better.
Two of the six Fleet Carriers - Shokaku and Zuikaku wasn't in commission untill 8 August 1941 and 25 September 1941.
Soryo was involved in the invasion of FIC September - October 1940 and its Airgroup was on Hainan Is. 15 July 1941 to beginning August with the ship arriving in Japan 7 August 1941 and entering a minor refit 22 September to 26 October 1941.
Hiryo had its Airgroup detached to Hainan Is. September 1940 and would undergo a refit 7 August to 15 September 1941.
Then there was a light Carrier and 2 escort Carriers.
So there would be periods where an accidental outbreak would be "unfortunate" like early August 1941 where one Fleet Carrier is in refit and the fifth just going into commission or late September where another Fleet Carrier in refit and the sixth only going into commission. Or summer 1941 with the Airgroups in training at Kagoshima preparing for Pearl Harbour. BTW the torpedoes for Pearl doesn't seem to have been ready untill mid November 1941 - narrow window for pulling it off.
Taranto 11-12 November 1940 had shown it possible to attack a port and the Plan wasn't ready untill 7 January 1941.
Have fun with dates!
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Post by Max Sinister on May 25, 2024 20:01:46 GMT
Thanks, this was helpful!
Not sure whether I'll want to use this in a TL. Seems like this would become, well, very chaotic.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 25, 2024 20:05:25 GMT
Thanks, this was helpful! Not sure whether I'll want to use this in a TL. Seems like this would become, well, very chaotic. But in the end, one will emerge victorious. |
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Post by Max Sinister on May 25, 2024 21:08:01 GMT
Thanks, this was helpful! Not sure whether I'll want to use this in a TL. Seems like this would become, well, very chaotic. But in the end, one will emerge victorious. Which'd be the Allies, no question. The question is: How'd things go until that? And when would this alt-WW2 be finished in the Pacific? As said, my bet is on "earlier", but I'm not 100% sure.
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