Danish AH by historians!!!

First installment: Scandinavism

Danish Radio have been running two seasons of AH broadcasts and also a kind of stand alone broadcast on the 1864 and Scandinavism on 14 June 2022.
Host is a Ph.D in modern History of University of Copenhagen.

Excerpt:
Post the 1864 war the Danish Politicians thought of King Christian IX as being directed by the Tsar and only wanting to take his Kingdom into the German Confederation.
The preamble is a book by historians Rasmus Glethøj, Danish and Morten Nordhagen Ottosen, Norwegian ”Union eller Undergang. Kampen for et forenet Skandinavien”(Union or Untergang. Fight for a unified Scandinavia).
Adam Holm interview Rasmus Glenthøj and also have a counterfactual angle.

The basic history is of Scandinavism as an enthused movement. Which is wrong as there was different views of it but the enthused movement of Students is the picture painted by the winners of history writers. The book challenge this history writing.
Scandinavism was a desire of a Scandinavian Federated Nations. It was supported by Bismarck, Cavour and Napoleon III. Bismarck and Nap III apparently discussed such a construct during the London Peace Negotiations during 1864.

Scandinavism show that there being other possible alternatives to the OTL outcome of Danish history.

Scandinavism surfaced post Vienna Conference of 1815. Everybody would be convinced by the outcome of that that small Nations would disapper in this Darwinist World of survival of the fittest -fittest as the strongest nations.
It was seen as a counter to being swallowed by other major Nations. Copenhagen National Liberal ruling party was Scandinavist – their aim a Scandinavian Federation.
There being in the day a principle of threshold – a choice of German or Scandinavian culture, politics, military and economy of Denmarks – when Denmark would have to expect being swallowed. The desire being that the Swedish-Norwegian Personal Union might be the vehicle to develop as a Federation – including Denmark.
Such would also ease Scandinavian differences – Swedish and Danish written language would become close as to be indestinguishable (Norwegian didn't count as its written language being Danish). According to Monrad the Danish Premier the Swedish – Danish differences was parallel to the internal Danish differences of Jutes vs. Sjælland/Copenhagen.

The opposition: Such would destroy the State – remove the German rich parts.

Bismarck agreed with the Scandinavist's – the Schleswig-Holstein-Lauenburg would be removed from the Scandinavian part of the Danish Kingdom. There was also the closeness of Germans and Scandinavians as both Germanics and thus natural Allies against the Slavs.
Suffice to say the Tsar didn't like the idea. Not just the alliance but also it being a Liberal political project and it would imbalance geopolitics of the day.

Among the population of the day in Denmark the issue was an elitarian one as Politics was conducted among the 15-18% of the population with right of vote of which as many as 15% would actually exercise their prerogative of vote.
Such was the spread also in Sweden – Norway as by 1848-50 as many as 243 Swedish and 180 Norwegian Officers had volunteered for Danish Service in the war. Which should be considered a high number given that both countries Armies had been mobilized to be able to support Denmark.
1864 the number was 6-800 without the like Swedish – Norwegian mobilization.
As a comparison Italy comprised of a dozen states and nationalities could muster 50,000 nationalists of a population of 27 million.

The situation following the First Schleswig War being that the issue of the Duchies hadn't been solved. As a consequence in the inter-war time the National Liberal Party ruling Denmark kept talking of Denmark to Eider (all of Schleswig to Denmark) – no partition – deliberately as it would fuel German and Conservative Danish sentiments, which it did, because it wanted the Scandinavian Federation! Thus war was destined to erupt.

The Kings Frederik VII of Denmark – Schleswig-Holstein – Lauenburg and Carl XV of Sweden-Norway was drinking chums. Carl being a Scandinavist Frederik less so BUT being without issue and hating the successor decided upon by the Great Powers Christian (to be IX) as being German and disliking Frederik's Morganitic wife and not wanting to leave his Kingdom to Germany as he expected Christian do do.
The Swedish Cabinet though wasn't enthused about the prospects of getting a third nation into the fold – probably seeing the Norwegians as enought trouble.

A possible moment in the view of Carl XV to effect the Scandinavian Federation/Union was the Crimean War. The Swedish and Norwegian Governments were divided on the issue and Frederik VII didn't want to hand over his throne to Carl so nothing came of it.

The counterfactual:
What if Frederik VII lived longer – OTL he died 15 November 1863 with war breaking out by February 1864? Carl might have agreed to support Denmark.
Denmark had managed by the various proposals to incorporate Schleswig-Holstein into the Danish State to provoke the war; the alliance with Sweden-Norway hadn't been ratified and there was no French support. If the alliance had been ratified with French support a Danish provoked war resulting in defeat and then death of Frederik VII could pave the way for Carl getting Denmark into Personal Union instead of Christian IX becoming King of Denmark. Bismarck and Nap III wouldn't support Christian ITTL. Though what would be Bismarcks price? Bismarck and Nap III had during the peace conference negotiating the movement of the Danish border north which should force the Scandinavian Union into being.

Back to OTL:
The 1864 defeat opened the route from Germany to Scandinavia for Denmarks.
Politicians had written the Union document! Problem being that PM Monrad of Denmark and De Geer of Sweden messed up the negotiations prior to the war! And Christian IX didn't want to cede his German Duchies.

The Plan:
With the Kings obsession of lineage and securing the inheritance of the Dynasty the Danish Politicians wanted to get rid of him. C.C. Hall leader of the National Liberal Party as Monrad had left Denmark for New Zealand still wanted the Union. He had been party to the planning prior to 1863 among these a revolution in Denmark which the Venstre/Liberal Party agreed to.
Popular and religious influencer Grundtvig opposed such.
Christian IX was seen as a danger to the Nation having been placed on the throne by the Tsar and was offering the German Confederation Denmark.
Post the War a plan was then made to kidnap the Royal Family – instigate a coup. Two examples have been preserved in Sweden – any Danish examples have been destroyed to prevent persecution.
The Royal Family would be taken to Malmöhus(fortress) and Swedish troops would be sent off to pacify the expected Jutish rebels. An alliance with Bismarck would be entered with a view to sometime get North Schleswig (Sønderjylland) back. Bismarck had been kept notified of plans since 1857.
A variant of the plan was having a referendum on the future of Denmarks in Union with Sweden-Norway.
However Russia managed to get news of the plan which had Bismarck retreat from participation and the plan was actually published in Danish press during Spring 1865. The Minister of Justice Heltzen a royalist had gotten wind of the plan and published it. Heltzen was then by political intrigue forced out of office.

Was it an impossible plan? The politicians and intellectual Danes wanted it but a real uniting figure of the various parties was missing. One such could be a Swede like de Geer, Hamilton or Gripenstedt though they didn't mention which of a number of both last families.
The timing was bad.

The advantages in the Union would be that Denmark and Norway might gang up on Sweden and thus frustrate Swedish supremacy. Anyway it would have been better than the OTL of Denmark politically lying dead as a puppet of Germany untill May 1945!
Economically the Union would be the 10th of the World.

First programme of season 2.

A Jewish homeland in Madagascar 24 December 2020.

Ph.D Adam Holm interview MA History, Journalist Bent Blüdnikow, jew who finds counterfactual a good way for the issue as everything in the time was a possible.

Nazi-Germany wanted to deport all Jews to Madagascar. Prior to the Nazi plan by 1937 a French – Polish plan of deportation of the Jews of these Nations had been put forward.
1938 a Conference was held at Lyons, France to find a homeland for the Jews – only the Dominican Republic was willing to accept Jews. This was impossible as it concerned millions of peoples.
Prior to 1937 by 1903 Chamberlain had proposed moving the Jews to Uganda which was a hopeless proposal as the climate was way different from what the Jewish populations was used to and required a new way of life besides pushing the locals out.
1928 Stalin had announced an Autonomous territory in Siberia which actually was established but which didn't keep Stalin form ordering progroms on the Soviet Jews.
1939 FDR had aired the thought of settling Jews in Alaska – which spawned off the AH novel ”The Yiddish Policemen's Union” by Michael Chabon.

The Nazi Madagascar plan was impossible as it required command of the Seas which was in the hands of the RN. Also in Madagascar the locals would be outnumbered by the Jews.
The Nazi alternative then was the Lublin area where Jews would be left in swamps in a Reservation. Then followed the Endlösung.
According to Blüdnikow the Madagascar plan was in effect a genocidal plan. The Jews would have been as in Uganda in a climate and environment they weren't adapted to and the locals would also resent their presence. To top it off the locals consist of several ethnic groups which would have as it does led to more problems with a new majority group arriving.

If there hadn't been a Jewish Homeland in Palestine post WWII the Jews would have tried get to the Sovietunion and Palestine – however the British Mandate Administration would admit them as it tried OTL as it would increase friction between Arabs and Jews already present in the area.
Possibly the major part of the European Jews would try staying in Europe as they had worked to become assimilated within the various nations. In a sense without a Palestinian Homeland for the Jews their situation might generally have been better as there would have been no or less tension of Arabs and Jews and a much different history past 1945.

Now i wonder, i know Denmark would still have lost, but what if they fought harder and longer in 1940.

- Denmark would be under full occupation from day 1.

- we would have a Danish free forces operating in the United Kingdom.

Couldn't help posting - it would be a VERY different world. I haven't even thought it through just had a few ideas.

Third radioprogramme of DR 26 December 2020

Polish attacks on Denmark summer 1968 and -71 – another occupation?

Ph.D History, Senior researcher, National Archives Steen Andersen, author of rather good AH on the USAAF attack on Denmark 2 April 1945 – part of a fine AH Anthology. Only in Danish.
Andersen see AH/CF as a highly useable ”tool” - like here when working with intentions and plans.

The 1968 attack is based upon Polish documents from archives. The opening is ”an attack a power of which have never been seen in history”.
There is a lot of sources for the period of 1960-90 regarding Poland military task during the Cold War.
1968 Gomulka was the Polish leader. There had been a purge of Jews within the official sector from jobs because of the 1967 six-day war.
The nation had seen a tight fisted rule from 1945-56 when an uprising took place in Poznan with 70 peoples killed. There was a lot of internal tension by 1968 with Student riots partly due to the purges of Jewish workers with Gomulka a Polish nationalist becoming the new leader.

A reason of Polands want of a military task outside its borders within the Warszawapagt was its experiences of the 20 Century of invasions and shifting of borders.

The 1968 plan counted on ca. 400,000 Polish troops in three Army Groups/Fronts armed with 4000 MBT 25% of which being T-34's the rest T-55 on manouevres 12-15 June 1968.

By 1960 Poland had gotten its military assignment of the Maritime Front during War. Polish officers sent to the Soviet General staff in Moscow had drawn up the plan and handed it to the Soviets who had approved it (corrosponds to Interviews with Polish Generals mentioned in another thread). The plan would routinely regularby be dusted off and subjected to Wargames to update it.
The plan was to move across GDR towards border with the FRG and cross this attacking along the coast towards Lünbeck and into Jutland to hit Esbjerg Port to bar entry of NATO reinforcements.
This advance would follow an initial NATO attack. (also in corrospondence with Interviews of Polish and Czech Generals)
The attack would outflank Hamburg and proceed towards the Low Countries.

The main NATO plan as viewed from the other side would see NATO attack into GDR but also make a flanking movement through Austria and Czehoslovakia (the Nazi-German Fall Grün attack on Czechoslovakia 1938) to encircle GDR.

The Danish Army had also been doing wargames on the Jutland – Schleswig-Holstein defence which would see Jutland Division moving down Jutland towards Lübeck and Kiel Canal. Units would be encircled by the Polish attack and the Jutland Division would do a fighting withdrawal north. If the enemy couldn't be held back Nuclear weapons would be delivered by Danish Honest John missiles.
Part of the Warszawapagt superiority by 1967 was its use of IR-sights on tanks which effect would later be seen during the 1973 Yom Kippur war in the Middle East.
The Danish Army didn't equip its tanks yet with IR-sights.

The 1968 plan didn't comprise any provisions for occupation of enemy territory; the 1971 plan had such.
Following the 1968 manuovres the Polish units which had cooperated with GDR and Soviet units would participate in the invasion of Czechoslovakia – this had been the real scope of the exercise.

The 1971 plan saw and initial NATO attack on Warsawpact with nuclear weapons following which Polish units would move through GDR to attack Danish troops just south of the Danish border.
An interesting aspect of the plan both in 1968 and 1971 was Jutland as the main target – not Sjælland and Copenhagen as the objective being Jutland as the arrival point of NATO reinforcements. Besides at this time the Warsawpact didn't have the necessary Amphibious means to transport a large force across the Baltic. The Polish 6 Parachute Division would be used in Jutland.

Over time the Warsawpact would phase out the use of nuclear weapons as these were too expensive and new Artillery systems would take the role. The Warsawpact considered itself superior to NATO in conventional troops which also was party to the decision of not using Nukes.
Nuclear weapons would be allocated to units but not expected to be used unless in extreme circumstances.

NATO during 1989 at the end of the Cold War expected a conventional war which huge losses during the initial three days – Jutland Division expect 50% losses during this stage.


A rather pessimistic view of the situation.
I remember that by 1980 the expected daily casualty rate in case of war was 2%!

Göring would've become new "führer" in 1939, it was in Hitler's official testament/will.

Nothing against Scandinavians, but I don't think they could've succeeded against two great powers combined.