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Post by raharris1973 on Jan 9, 2023 2:38:38 GMT
-What if Poland and Lithuania never unified?
[Put this one in your pipe and smoke it, Jan Sobieski]
At least they never had a personal union lasting more than one generation and never had a joint constitution.
Let's also suppose for the purposes of this discussion that neither of form a long-lasting bond or Commonwealth with an alternative partner instead of each other (so no Polish-Hungarian or Polish-Bohemian Commonwealth, or Lithuanian-Muscovite Commonwealth)
How does each country likely develop differently internally over the next 400 years from 1385 or so? In terms of distinctiveness in terms of hereditary versus elective monarchy and balance of powers between the King/Grand Duke and estates/nobility?
How does each country's standing and position and strength and size in central and Eastern Europe likely evolve in the 400 years after 1385? Do either of them become completely extinct as a state or language by 1785, or far earlier?
How is the fate of the Jewish communities who lived there, grew there, and settled there altered by the starkly different politics? What about different impacts of the Reformation or the borderline with Orthodox Christianity?
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 9, 2023 3:53:55 GMT
Easiest PoD that I could think of is Lithuania converting to Orthodox Christianity, with either Jogaila marrying an Orthodox princess, or Svitrigaila taking power as Grand Duke of Lithuania after defeating Vytautas during their power struggles for the right to succeed Algirdas.
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Post by Max Sinister on Jan 11, 2023 15:29:45 GMT
Would the Teutonic Knights be able to conquer it, or even Germanize it, then? (In my Chaos TL I had this happen, but this has no Mongol conquests and a later Black Death, so it may not count.)
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Post by raharris1973 on Jan 13, 2023 1:46:06 GMT
Would the Teutonic Knights be able to conquer it, or even Germanize it, then? (In my Chaos TL I had this happen, but this has no Mongol conquests and a later Black Death, so it may not count.) Maybe - that's a great question. The Chaos TL (no Mongol empire, right?) that was an impressive and ambitious undertaking! You had some world maps at few intervals centuries later. |
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Post by Max Sinister on Jan 14, 2023 13:51:34 GMT
Thank you very much! Unfortunately I'm not a great mapmaker.
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Bob
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Post by Bob on Jul 21, 2023 6:02:32 GMT
-What if Poland and Lithuania never unified? The key to answering this is to first answer why they unified their monarchies in 1385 in the first place. The reason is that they wanted an alliance against the Teutonic Order, which they defeated at Grunwald in 1410 after converting Lithuania from paganism to Catholicism and joining forces. The immediate alternative is that Polish Queen Jadwiga doesn't marry Jogaila of Lithuania, but one of her two other OTL suitors: One from the then minor Duchy of Austria, William Hapsburg: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William,_Duke_of_Austria The other was from the Polish fief of Mazovia, Siemowit_IV en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemowit_IV,_Duke_of_Masovia In either of those scenarios, Lithuania has no reason to convert to Catholicism. Instead, it becomes Orthodox by Jogaila marrying one of the many Ukrainian aristocrats from his own population (which is majority Orthodox, not majority pagan, in any case), or a Russian from Ryazan, Tver, Novgorod or Muscovy. Alternatively, Lithuania fights on as a pagan state and likely loses in a genocidal campaign by the Teutonic Order. A truly wild and almost unthinkable scenario is that Jogaila marries a Tatar princess, Lithuania unites with the Tatars and becomes Muslim in spite of its Orthodox population; not quite as far fetched as it seems as there were Tatars on the Polish-Lithuanian side at Grunwald. A Hapsburg Poland might end up something like Hapsburg Hungary, playing second fiddle to Vienna and not pursuing its own interests, never getting Danzig back from the Teutonic order. A Mazovian Poland could end up as a powerful nation-state with a far more centralized government than OTL, with the nobles and the King united in pursuit of Danzig on their own terms. With regard to Jewish people, no change whatsoever in Poland. The country had codified superior citizen status for Jewish people during the reign of Jadwiga's great uncle Casimir the Great. By her reign Jews had their own superior courts, so if a Pole assaulted a Jew, he would get tried in a Jewish court rather than a Polish court. It was a Jewish state within the Polish state. The difference is that without Polish union with Lithuania, this arrangement doesn't get extended to Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania. The Jewish nation gets concentrated in Poland, not wider Eastern Europe. |
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575
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Post by 575 on Jul 21, 2023 8:35:16 GMT
-What if Poland and Lithuania never unified? The key to answering this is to first answer why they unified their monarchies in 1385 in the first place. The reason is that they wanted an alliance against the Teutonic Order, which they defeated at Grunwald in 1410 after converting Lithuania from paganism to Catholicism and joining forces. The immediate alternative is that Polish Queen Jadwiga doesn't marry Jogaila of Lithuania, but one of her two other OTL suitors: One from the then minor Duchy of Austria, William Hapsburg: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William,_Duke_of_Austria The other was from the Polish fief of Mazovia, Siemowit_IV en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemowit_IV,_Duke_of_Masovia In either of those scenarios, Lithuania has no reason to convert to Catholicism. Instead, it becomes Orthodox by Jogaila marrying one of the many Ukrainian aristocrats from his own population (which is majority Orthodox, not majority pagan, in any case), or a Russian from Ryazan, Tver, Novgorod or Muscovy. Alternatively, Lithuania fights on as a pagan state and likely loses in a genocidal campaign by the Teutonic Order. A truly wild and almost unthinkable scenario is that Jogaila marries a Tatar princess, Lithuania unites with the Tatars and becomes Muslim in spite of its Orthodox population; not quite as far fetched as it seems as there were Tatars on the Polish-Lithuanian side at Grunwald. A Hapsburg Poland might end up something like Hapsburg Hungary, playing second fiddle to Vienna and not pursuing its own interests, never getting Danzig back from the Teutonic order. A Mazovian Poland could end up as a powerful nation-state with a far more centralized government than OTL, with the nobles and the King united in pursuit of Danzig on their own terms. Thanks Bob; I have thought about what would have happened to the two if they didn't unite but other projects have interfered. The thing about a Mazovian Poland would be the question of - Post defeating the Teutonic Order and retaking Danzig what then?
With a constant Polish threat the Order wouldn't have the means (I guess) to take Gotland 1398 that would fall to Denmark probably keeping Margrethe from interference in Holstein post 1404 which will made the border unstable but on the other hand perhaps let Margrethe live a few more years to leave a stable Union to Eric of Pommerania though it could also spell more trouble for Denmark on the Holstein border and the Kalmar Union fall apart earlier.
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Bob
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Post by Bob on Jul 21, 2023 8:44:24 GMT
Without Lithuania, Poland with just Mazovia isn't defeating the Teutonic Order at Grunwald in 1410. The question is whether Poland-Mazovia forms an alliance with the TO versus Lithuania, or with Lithuania versus the TO. Both are possible, neither is certain.
Note Poland did not get back Danzig as an immediate consequence of Grunwald. It took years of post-Grunwald reparations and then the Thirteen Years War to do that.
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Bob
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Post by Bob on Jul 24, 2023 4:38:28 GMT
The OP asked about Jewish communities. As I said above: no immediate change. But longer term, no personal union (marriage of Jadwiga and Jogaila) in 1385 means no state union (Union of Lublin in 1569). That means no annexation of Ukraine by Poland and no arrival of Poland's aristocrats, Jewish administrators and Catholic priests in Orthodox Ukraine, no Cossack rebellion of 1648, no massacres of Jews and Catholic priests and Polish aristocrats during that event.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Sept 30, 2023 4:50:50 GMT
Building on either Jogaila converting to Orthodoxy or Svitrigaila winning his war against Vytautas, a Lithuania that eventually expands deeper into the Novgorod Republic and the Grand Duchy of Muscovy could be in the cards, but all they're doing is basically rebuilding the former Kievan/Kyivan Rus', but with a slight Belarusian flavor. I could suspect that Lithuanian Rus' might be a juggernaut in its own right as well.
As for Mazovian Poland, while it gets no benefit from its union with Lithuania, it also avoids the drama that OTL Lithuania in union with Poland regarding Muscovite invasions. In exchange though, I would guess that Poland becomes more integrated into the HRE.
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Post by raharris1973 on Oct 2, 2023 12:27:17 GMT
Building on either Jogaila converting to Orthodoxy or Svitrigaila winning his war against Vytautas, a Lithuania that eventually expands deeper into the Novgorod Republic and the Grand Duchy of Muscovy could be in the cards, but all they're doing is basically rebuilding the former Kievan/Kyivan Rus', but with a slight Belarusian flavor. I could suspect that Lithuanian Rus' might be a juggernaut in its own right as well. As for Mazovian Poland, while it gets no benefit from its union with Lithuania, it also avoids the drama that OTL Lithuania in union with Poland regarding Muscovite invasions. In exchange though, I would guess that Poland becomes more integrated into the HRE. Wouldn't this Orthodox Lithuania be highly vulnerable to losing western border territories like Samogitia to Teutonic Knights attacks? Would this Lithuanian Grand Duchy control Halych-Galicia, or would that principality be independent, or under Polish or Hungarian domination? What would the Lithuanian Grand Duchy 'juggernaut' (with Novgorod and Muscovy) have as its governing model? Hereditary monarchy or elective monarchy? Muscovite centralization, or Polish decentralization? Something in-between? Would Vilnius remain this Grand Lithuania's default capital? If so, would a more westward center, impair the joint state's expansion east of Muscovy and Novgorod to the Urals and Siberia? Would it lead in time to greater expansion in the direction of Poland, the Baltic, and Central Europe? The Balkans? |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Oct 2, 2023 15:20:25 GMT
Building on either Jogaila converting to Orthodoxy or Svitrigaila winning his war against Vytautas, a Lithuania that eventually expands deeper into the Novgorod Republic and the Grand Duchy of Muscovy could be in the cards, but all they're doing is basically rebuilding the former Kievan/Kyivan Rus', but with a slight Belarusian flavor. I could suspect that Lithuanian Rus' might be a juggernaut in its own right as well. As for Mazovian Poland, while it gets no benefit from its union with Lithuania, it also avoids the drama that OTL Lithuania in union with Poland regarding Muscovite invasions. In exchange though, I would guess that Poland becomes more integrated into the HRE. Wouldn't this Orthodox Lithuania be highly vulnerable to losing western border territories like Samogitia to Teutonic Knights attacks? Would this Lithuanian Grand Duchy control Halych-Galicia, or would that principality be independent, or under Polish or Hungarian domination? What would the Lithuanian Grand Duchy 'juggernaut' (with Novgorod and Muscovy) have as its governing model? Hereditary monarchy or elective monarchy? Muscovite centralization, or Polish decentralization? Something in-between? Would Vilnius remain this Grand Lithuania's default capital? If so, would a more westward center, impair the joint state's expansion east of Muscovy and Novgorod to the Urals and Siberia? Would it lead in time to greater expansion in the direction of Poland, the Baltic, and Central Europe? The Balkans? Yes, while I think that Lithuania may end up losing half of its Samogitian holdings, it might make up for it with the influences on Novgorod or Muscovy. An elective monarchy, combined with decentralization may actually be more beneficial to the Lithuanian state than Muscovite centralization. At best, Lithuania might have to undergo a similar expansion route to Muscovy when it comes to dealing with the Golden Horde. If Lithuania doesn’t expand beyond the Urals, I would suspect that either the Sibir Khanate or a rebuilt Northern Yuan, or even an Oirat centered dynasty would eventually absorb all of Siberia. |
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Post by raharris1973 on Oct 3, 2023 0:23:27 GMT
At best, Lithuania might have to undergo a similar expansion route to Muscovy when it comes to dealing with the Golden Horde. If Lithuania doesn’t expand beyond the Urals, I would suspect that either the Sibir Khanate or a rebuilt Northern Yuan, or even an Oirat centered dynasty would eventually absorb all of Siberia. Interesting concepts on a couple levels. For Lithuania, the idea of it as a decentralized noble's paradise. That may make it very Poland like. Nobles paradise, peasants hell, and conducive to Jewish expansion, all prone to eruptions of Cossack and peasant revolt. In best case, it following expansion route of Muscovy relative to Golden Horde and Siberia. I can imagine this is not implausible. The PLC could perform OK at times against the Crimean Horde. After the Russian expansion into Siberia wasn't pushed by the most centralized part of Muscovy, but by Yermak and the Stroganoffs. A decentralized Lithuania, but with gunpowder advantages could still overawe Siberian woodland and eventually steppe tribes. It would just be tougher states like Sweden, the Ottomans, Persia, China that would be too challenging. The Sibir Khanate alternative? Interesting idea. Do you think they might really have the ambition and drive to continually expand their fur-tribute network over surrounding tribes up to the Arctic Sea and east to the Pacific? Likewise with the Northern Yuan, just from a different geographic starting point, Mongolia, headed north to Yakutia, or the Oirats, expanding from a similar point to similar compass points? |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Oct 3, 2023 2:37:32 GMT
At best, Lithuania might have to undergo a similar expansion route to Muscovy when it comes to dealing with the Golden Horde. If Lithuania doesn’t expand beyond the Urals, I would suspect that either the Sibir Khanate or a rebuilt Northern Yuan, or even an Oirat centered dynasty would eventually absorb all of Siberia. Interesting concepts on a couple levels. For Lithuania, the idea of it as a decentralized noble's paradise. That may make it very Poland like. Nobles paradise, peasants hell, and conducive to Jewish expansion, all prone to eruptions of Cossack and peasant revolt. In best case, it following expansion route of Muscovy relative to Golden Horde and Siberia. I can imagine this is not implausible. The PLC could perform OK at times against the Crimean Horde. After the Russian expansion into Siberia wasn't pushed by the most centralized part of Muscovy, but by Yermak and the Stroganoffs. A decentralized Lithuania, but with gunpowder advantages could still overawe Siberian woodland and eventually steppe tribes. It would just be tougher states like Sweden, the Ottomans, Persia, China that would be too challenging. The Sibir Khanate alternative? Interesting idea. Do you think they might really have the ambition and drive to continually expand their fur-tribute network over surrounding tribes up to the Arctic Sea and east to the Pacific? Likewise with the Northern Yuan, just from a different geographic starting point, Mongolia, headed north to Yakutia, or the Oirats, expanding from a similar point to similar compass points? I could see the Oirats forming their own state first, and then reunifying Mongolia with it as a stepping stone. Realizing that their chance of retaking China would be tough without a secure power base, the Oirats could go for a northern expansion through the vast Siberian lands. However, they would have to fight off against the Uzbek Khanate in this case, but they may be able to take advantage of a growing turmoil between the Uzbek Shaybanids and the Kazakhs, or alternatively, Abul Khayr Khan never seizes power in Central Asia due to Urus Khan becoming the Khan of the Golden Horde, though a different kind of power struggle would erupt between the Sibir Khanate, the Uzbeks, and the Kazakhs. Here, the Oirats could entice the Kazakhs to rebel and further split the Golden Horde apart from the east, while in the west, they'd have to contend with the splitting into the Crimean and Astrakhan Khanates, plus Kazan. That being said, a power base in Siberia, coupled with a growing prestige of the Oirats, could eventually result in either the Northern Yuan retaking China down the road, or they'd create an entirely new dynasty that combines Oirat-Mongol, Chinese, Persian, Turkic, and possibly even Korean and Jurchen cultural influences. The Turkic and Persian influence would be restricted to mainly architecture, although they'd take more of a Kazakh flavor of Turkic influence, as opposed to Uzbek. I would suspect that this uber-Orthodox Lithuania might also not be too keen on over expanding its territory, given that they'd be ruling over a multicultural empire at this point and would be a major contributor to the wars against the Ottomans. In this case though, the Timurids could also be a major factor in dominating parts of Central Asia and Iran, making them also formidable rivals to the Ottomans and the Europeans. |
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