|
|
Post by justiniano on Jun 14, 2022 16:13:42 GMT
PoD 1. Skanderbeg reconverts to Orthodoxy instead of converting to Catholicism from Islam and instead of turning on him, King Stefan teams up with him against the ottomans and they unify their states by their children marrying each other.
PoD 2. To prevent Hungary from getting in their way too much the Transylvanian peasants and petty nobles win the Transylvanian peasant revolt of 1437 – 1438
PoD 3. To prevent the Ottomans from getting in their way too much İbrahim Bey of the Karamanids refuses each and every ottoman term and refuses to surrender his state to the Ottomans in 1487 and defends it til his last dying breathe.
Not exactly PoDs but things I think could happen (had the PoDs happened) and would probably need to in order for Serbia to become a super power
1. In the 16th century they turn warfare into an art like western Europe, Russia & Japan did.
2. Right after Napoleon Takes Egypt from the Ottomans (or whoever would hold Egypt in TTL) The king of Serbia Conquers an area which roughly correlates to the kingdom of Judah and Gaza strip then uses the gulf of Aqaba as a base to start a colonial empire. Possibly colonizing places the other colonial empires never got Like Arabia, Thailand and I think they'd colonize the Immamate of Aussa (or whatever takes it's place) and then make Ethiopia into a protectorate since it's Orthodox.
|
|
|
|
Post by Max Sinister on Jun 15, 2022 14:15:25 GMT
Still very far from superpower.
Maybe if Tesla had been Serbian instead of Croat, and his government tolerated his eccentricity and implemented all of his inventions?
|
|
|
|
Post by justiniano on Jun 15, 2022 15:47:30 GMT
But think of all the parts of the Balkans Stefan & Skanderbeg would conquer together, and then those parts of Africa & Asia. Possibly even somewhere in the Americas. Russia might sell Alaska to Serbia.
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Member is Online
Posts: 67,970 
Likes: 49,372
|
Post by lordroel on Jun 15, 2022 16:06:22 GMT
But think of all the parts of the Balkans Stefan & Skanderbeg would conquer together, and then those parts of Africa & Asia. Possibly even somewhere in the Americas. Russia might sell Alaska to Serbia. Think you going into ASB territory now. |
|
|
|
Post by justiniano on Jun 15, 2022 16:13:04 GMT
Still very far from superpower. Ok, what do you think would have happened anyway if all those PoDs I mentioned happened and the 2 other things I said happened |
|
|
|
Post by simon darkshade on Jun 15, 2022 16:38:52 GMT
You've got a confused, extremely unlikely and disconnected series of possible PoDs, not ones that follow from another.
To become a superpower pre 1900, you need a country with world leading industry, an economy in the top 3, extremely strong military capacity, science and technological advantage and very substantive natural resources. Serbia has none of them, nor does the entirety of the Balkans.
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Member is Online
Posts: 67,970
Likes: 49,372
|
Post by lordroel on Jun 15, 2022 17:12:54 GMT
You've got a confused, extremely unlikely and disconnected series of possible PoDs, not ones that follow from another. To become a superpower pre 1900, you need a country with world leading industry, an economy in the top 3, extremely strong military capacity, science and technological advantage and very substantive natural resources. Serbia has none of them, nor does the entirety of the Balkans. As I said in a post before to him, this is going into ASB territory. |
|
|
|
Post by justiniano on Jun 15, 2022 17:28:02 GMT
Think you going into ASB territory now. how? |
|
|
|
Post by justiniano on Jun 15, 2022 17:30:05 GMT
You've got a confused, extremely unlikely and disconnected series of possible PoDs, not ones that follow from another. To become a superpower pre 1900, you need a country with world leading industry, an economy in the top 3, extremely strong military capacity, science and technological advantage and very substantive natural resources. Serbia has none of them, nor does the entirety of the Balkans. What? The former Yugoslav countries are all rich in natural resources. I didn't mention industry in my PoDs because they're all before the industrial revolution. You can be a super power pre 1900 without being industrialized |
|
lordroel
Administrator
Member is Online
Posts: 67,970
Likes: 49,372
|
Post by lordroel on Jun 15, 2022 18:00:12 GMT
Think you going into ASB territory now. how? Because of what your wrote: But think of all the parts of the Balkans Stefan & Skanderbeg would conquer together, and then those parts of Africa & Asia. Possibly even somewhere in the Americas. Russia might sell Alaska to Serbia. |
|
|
|
Post by simon darkshade on Jun 15, 2022 18:04:24 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by justiniano on Jun 15, 2022 18:13:30 GMT
Quote   [input type="checkbox" class="ui-manager-checkbox"] Post by simon darkshade on [abbr data-timestamp="1655316264000" title="Wed Jun 15 2022 13:04:24 GMT-0500 (Colombia Standard Time)" class="o-timestamp time recent_time" style="color: rgb(34, 140, 83);"]5 minutes ago[/abbr] Yugoslavia had deposits of oil, gas, coal, antimony, copper, lead, zinc, nickel, gold, pyrite, and chrome. Iron and copper deposits are located in central Serbia; coal, lead, and zinc reserves are found in Kosovo; and oil reserves are located in Vojvodina. With a population under 1 million in 1500, Serbia is not going too far. I couldn't find serbia's population in 1500 anywhere online. If you're making an estimate based on it's 19th century population it actually probably decreased due to ottomans killing many of them. Also since Skanderbeg fuses his kingdom with Serbia it's getting an extra 200k people |
|
|
|
Post by simon darkshade on Jun 15, 2022 18:40:42 GMT
I typed in Serbia population 1500 and got this as the second link: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_in_1500You need to stop shifting the goalposts. If it is pre industrial, then oil and gas aren’t any use, zinc and antimony barely known, chromium not known until the mid 1700s and nickel after that point. That leaves iron, copper and lead. The Balkans in general are not now nor have been world leading producers of those. Vojvodina was Hungarian, for what it’s worth. You come up with the most curious ideas, sometimes bordering on the bizarre and then get greatly attached to their viability. This, compounded with the issues of what actually constitutes a viable PoD and a proper Alternate History, trips you up a bit. You often have the cart before the horse; in this case, I would be asking “With a PoD of 1300, how do we make Serbia a great power?” That uses the right terminology, doesn’t start jumping ahead conceptually to a colonial empire and doesn’t try to engineer a multi PoD scenario. Serbia was an empire in the Middle Ages, so it being a medium power isn’t too difficult, but a GP is tough. Look at the GPs of the era 1400-1800. What factors do they have in common? |
|
|
|
Post by justiniano on Jun 15, 2022 19:39:21 GMT
Vojvodina was Hungarian, for what it’s worth. They can conquer it. Skanderbeg was a millitary genius. You come up with the most curious ideas, sometimes bordering on the bizarre and then get greatly attached to their viability. This, compounded with the issues of what actually constitutes a viable PoD and a proper Alternate History, trips you up a bit. You often have the cart before the horse; in this case, I would be asking “With a PoD of 1300, how do we make Serbia a great power?” That uses the right terminology, doesn’t start jumping ahead conceptually to a colonial empire and doesn’t try to engineer a multi PoD scenario. Ok, u don't think this would make it a super power. Ok, I'm likely to be wrong. What do u think would have happened had my 3 PoDs occured? do u think either of the 2 outcomes I also posted could have happened? |
|
|
|
Post by simon darkshade on Jun 16, 2022 2:39:12 GMT
3 PoDs happening in combination is astonishingly unlikely and also inconsequential.
Skanderbeg was not immortal; any benefit from him is only fleeting. This is a weak argument to make for nations over centuries.
Hungary may be momentarily internally distracted, but that doesn’t last forever. They are still right next door and larger. The Ottomans were also more than one trick ponies at this point.
I’d advise you to set a single PoD and date and then explore things from there, rather than trying to load up your bet. A single bet (X team to win) doesn’t pay as much as a multi with three legs (X team to win, Y player to be first scorer and Z player to be top scorer) but is simply more likely. It has to jump through less hoops to be successful.
|
|
