How many Sixes does Adolf Nazi have to Roll?

If I understand your logic chain, then the Germans are already doomed. The French killed too many good Luftwaffe tacticians and operational unit leaders. All that is left is Kahnhuber and he is not enough to offset the Goering Gang, that idiot politician who thinks he is an airplane designer and builder, Willy Messerschmidt, and that one idea man Adolf Galland.



How about the Befehlshaber der Unterseeboote? Those incompetents make the Goering Gang appear to be geniuses. Consider that managing a submarine and air campaign efficiently as complementary effectors could prolong the war and give the Germans a chance at a peace of exhaustion. To paint broad strokes about it, the German LW had no strategic bombardment or anti-ship capacity at all. And the KM did not know how to conduct a proper submarine campaign either. The two failures complemented each other in that the British could not be besieged at sea or from the air. Going the other way, when the LW lost the air campaign in mid 1943 and the Americans (Never the British) finally figured out transportation and oil, the air campaign complemented the Russian ground campaign so as to doom Hitlerite Germany. The war at sea turned out to stalemate until British tacticians and American technologists solved the U-boat and made it a one way suicide trip to the North Atlantic. The Germans only had until mid 1943 until game theory *(British), technological fixes (American) like 10 cm radar, acoustic anti-submarine torpedoes and ASW HK groups made finding U-boats as fun and easy as killing German tanks and locomotives. The Germans never applied game theory on offense in either the air campaign or war at sea. They did not understand radar. They did not understand economic flow logistics. They did not understand MAHAN. *(Mahan's theories of economic use of the sea can be applied to land communications as well. Transportation is transportation. Cut it, and whether land or sea, the initiative and wealth passes to the side which can move from the side which cannot.)



See previous remarks? If one cannot solve the truck problem and one is not prepared for the terrain problem, then one loses mobility. To take a Russian example, The Winter War, the Finns were able to mukluk their small hunting parties across country in the snow buried woods and hunt Russians. They murdered tens of thousands of them with sniper ambushes and basic infantry patrolling on foot. In a similar vein, the Russians' equipment froze up in those conditions and would not work and they could not move at all. As attackers, they HAD to move or get mowed down in place by eager happy Finns who popped up seemingly anywhere in a 1940s game of whack a Russian. As an added bonus, the Finns could move in DAYLIGHT since they had effective air cover. The Russians could not. Their VVK was blasted out of the sky, they had no air recon and to add to their woes, guess who could also move at night and who could not? This sounds exactly like France 1945. Especially the Ardennes 2.0 when the Americans got organized and the Herr experienced the joys of Quesada, Montgomery and Patton after Bradley was fired, the snow came and the 9th Air Force went to work on frozen Germans and their stuck supply columns.



The way Manila fell. But that means infantry who know how to do it and generals who understand artillery and time solves all MOUTs. And to clear up a point, the Austrian draft dodger and coward wanted the Baiku oil fields. He might have been a lucky idiot as well as a superficial didact, but he had Horace Greeley Hjalmar Schact, an economist, who taught him about oil and what makes the world go round. (&Yes: the "gentleman's" name was "Horace Greeley" Hjalmar Schact.). It was the oil, and not the grain. He could get the grain from France.



The first murder camps stated in 1933 and immediately showed skewed and negative economic and logistics supply chain effects upon the German economy.



One needs "nuance" to get past the myths of how WWII unfolded. Simple things like keeping your horses and troops sheltered in portable barns, supplying smokeless wood stoves and charcoal to your machine gun crews and knowing how to make and use snowshoes can be important.

miletus12, your first post here was good, but the next two ones could use improvement. Sources and all that. Also, try to calm down your emotions. This is a difficult topic, but let's approach it like professionals.

Just one thing: Dachau was a concentration camp and indeed started in 1933, and ~35,000 people died there (enough said), but it wasn't an extermination "camp" like Auschwitz, Sobibor, Treblinka etc. where hundreds of thousands were killed in gas chambers, and for which indeed many transports were necessary.

One day I'll have to post the list of my sources here. It's still not finished, but it contains some dozen books, both fiction and non-fiction. Not to mention the WP articles, and the books I don't remember anymore.

Other than that, I just want to tell you that I haven't figured out everything yet, but I'm thinking about it. One single PoD very probably won't do it - none of all those I and others can think of, save ASBs - but if I take five? Or ten?

And I don't deny that Nazi politicians and generals often screwed up. That's not the question. The question is who screws up least in the war.

Taking that in order.
1a. Considering that the Russians stole 90% of the basic research and still got it mostly wrong and had to backtrack and repeat Oliphant's Bohr's and Teller's work, the Soviets getting the bomb "first" is still a myth.
2a. The Nazi regime knew nothing about rockets that the Americans did not already know. JPL was about 18 months behind in the manufacturing in 1944. Postwar after a rocker bombarded England ATL? Expect Atlas in 1950. Nazi schemes for a V-3 or V-4 depended on solving the stack problem and some cockamamie wings for glide extended flight. If they could not solve missile staging for something simple like Rheintochter, then the Americans will at White Sands with a kludged version of a Sergeant and WAC Corporal.
3a. Americans are ahead by a decade.
4a. The Nazis would not care. Social Darwinism will take care of it.
5a. Not true. Konrad's machine series was a pale and UNRELIABLE forerunner (1938-1943)to the Atanasoff-Berry Computer and ENIAC. (1940-1947.)

1b. This would be interesting. An America victorious and unaided in such a Pacific War would have spent about a million lives and exerted about twice the effort to reach the Kanto plains. It would not be in any mood for Nazi shenanigans as I track the alternate outcomes. Since the Nazi scientific talent pool is riddled with blind spots and gaps in knowledge and the brain drain as Europe's best and brightest are murdered or they flee to the New World, we would see another strange mirror version of the Cold War.
2b. India without Russia as a backer and with Nazi Arabs and Persians on its western frontier will either split apart as historically or it will intact join the Australia New Zealand America Canada India Compact. ANZACI?
3b. That depends on the new "Cold War". If George Keenan wrote "his paper" there will be a lot of dead Germans in strange places and a lot more "Vietnams".
4b. Same as 3. Maybe intensified as Nazism incites blowback globally.
5b. Communist China does not happen. Mao needed Russians in Manchuria. What does he have instead? Americans. He therefore becomes dead. See 1b.
6b. The Nazis cultivated the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem. he is the direct origin of the Moslem Brotherhood. It would not be remarkable to see the Iranians align with the Americans to oppose this Arab Nazism.
7b. Binary. No communists. Between the Capitalists / Liberals and the Fascists / Corporatists the Marxists have been crushed. Now you have those two ideologies squaring off.
8b. The Soviet Union is gone. What replaces it, is probably fascist.

1c. See 3c. They will not live that long.
2c. What communist guerrillas? Stalin is dead and so is Mao. You might see more Peronists and other Caudillos, but that is old hat to the world that we see emergent here. Google Smedley Butler if you want a Che Guevera and hang on to your hat.
3c. The Herr versus the SS more likely with the Nazi state suffering an implosion. Think of Rumania after Ceausescu or what could happen to Russia in the next few months.
4c. Definitely Spain and Turkey. Refer to 3b. .
5c. Refer to 3c. The Germans knew in 1935 and the World knew in 1942. That kind of crime cannot be hidden. Ignored yes, but hidden, never.
6c. If it did not happen in 1944, then it never would. The current Ukraine War is another test case of totalitarian control versus external pressure. One has to induce general economic and social collapse to produce social dynamic change.

1d. The Nazis were, at the upper echelon, already drug addicts and Charles Manson type perverts and maniacs. They imposed an amphetamine drug dependency on the Herr for "reasons". They were about as atavistic as mass murdering drug abusing moral-less mentally defective human beings can get. The counter-culture is not arriving for them, It has arrived and they waved it on past as TOO CONSERVATIVE and went down the escalator to the next level of depravity.
2d. Nazis will suppress it.
3d. American propaganda? UFA. And the Germans will still import a lot of "Hollywood westerns". They will lose the propaganda war.
4d. The Roman Catholic Church, depending on how long the Nazis last, will have a new "Age of Martyrs". Mass murdering Nazis will murder factory target the "faithful". That is the nature of totalitarians. They cannot tolerate any competing ideology.
5d. The neopagan movement was planned as a replacement for "Christianity". Depending on the variety of Nazi, Atheism was either a given or would be the default condition.

1e. Nazis? With these clowns? Look at what a mess they made of German agriculture before WWII. They will retrograde into Lamarckism and make Europe a wasteland faster than Stalin did the Ukraine.
2e. See 1e.
3e. Plateau oil for the Nazi state depends on how incompetent their political machinations in the Middle East are. They would have to be fairly stupid about it, almost as stupid as the western politicians recently have been in our real world. Being Nazis, I expect those bumblers to get there faster and be oil starved in time for the ATL Algeria War to kick off a decade early. Refer to 3b. and our friend, Smedley Butler.
4e. Nazis were "organized crime". They do not need to invent it. Refer to 3c. for the results.
5e. On the American side. Nazis (See what they did to Junkers.) are too incompetent.

Blitzmädel: Young women who worked during the war for the Wehrmacht, mostly for transferring messages

Also kinda mocking as the Blitz-emblem was the Arms-emblem of SS and Wehrmacht Radiointel so You couldn't as a soldier be too openmouthed around them.

Orpo/Kripo/Sipo: The three branches of the police: The Sicherheitspolizei, the feared security police; the Kriminalpolizei, criminal police; and the Ordnungspolizei, having to deal with writing traffic tickets, arresting bums and drunks, and so on.

Add Bepo, part of Orpo usually living in Barracks which was the Bereitschafts Polizei/Riot Police little wanted around when you were roaming the street.

Welteislehre: A pseudoscience developed by a Hanns Hörbiger who claimed that the whole universe was created by the forces of fire and ice, that Earth's Moon was made of ice too, and will fall on Earth in the future - as has happened many times. Oh, and the Mars will become the last moon of Earth. Recommended by Adolf Nazi.

Germans were peoples of the Fire Slavs of Ice such as the East Campain would be the clash of Fire and Ice; in which Fire of course would prevail.