stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 10, 2023 10:15:53 GMT
As I understand it the barrier to a Nazi-Soviet peace agreement isn't Stalin, who would have been eager for one before the successful defence of Moscow and winter counter-attack but Hitler, who refused serious negotiations even as the Soviets approached Berlin. When his forces are on the outskirts of Moscow and he feels total victory is so near then it would need a totally different Hitler to have any agreement. Plus such an agreement is likely to have the resultant border probably around the Urals, or at least on the Volga for much of its lower length which would really cripple the USSR. Apart from anything else Germany would want Baku, which would give them the desired oil - at least in theory - and also access to Iran themselves.
Got to go to work but will try and reply again later.
The original nazi idea was the Volga line, which could be used to destroy the remaining industry in the Urals with airstrikes. But IMO that's ASBish. We're talking about a territory of several million square kilometers here, with a population bigger than the Reich. How are they supposed to hold this down, with a surviving if reduced SU next door?
A new border along the Dniepr-Dvina line, or at the Don max., for easier defense, would be the realistic maximum, I think. If you want the Reich to survive for at least 20 years.
Have that book also in my book shelf. And now I reread it. It had some nice tidbits. E.g. {Spoiler}
Eichmann in Palestine being killed by a Jewish sniper. Or Churchill reading Hornblower for fun.
And it's an exercise in imperial overstretch. (The Romans needed centuries, the nazis achieve it in a few years.) I think that's what the author wanted to tell us.
But I'm skeptical about the book. The Nazis taking Moscow? Even if half of the population has left the city, that leaves two million potential partisans. It looks like Stalingrad multiplied by a factor of five, at least. {Spoiler}
And yet, the Wehrmacht also takes Gorky AND Stalingrad AND the Caucasus AND Tabriz AND Egypt AND invades Palestine before they're finally stopped? And the Japanese attack Vladivostok?
This simply breaks my suspension of disbelief. It's imaginable that the Nazis achieve more than in OTL (hell, I'm writing this TL after all), but this is too much.
This might work indeed, and was exactly what happened in "The Moscow Option". The "führer's" plane crashes when the Wehrmacht has reached Smolensk, and he's in a coma for five months. So yes, it's an idea. But that feels like cheating. The rules I made for myself: No killing, incapacitating, blackmailing of Adolf Nazi in any way. I won't budge from that.
Ah I had forgotten that point. Without Hitler being out of control for a period of time I frankly can't see him agreeing terms with the Soviets, at any rate while he's anywhere near winning. Not without a radically different Hitler which I assume you also consider a no-go option.
Agree that the MO book goes in for excessive Axis success. Unless the allies really screw up massively Egypt is simply out of reach because the El Alamein position half-way decently defended is too strong for anything the Germans can logistically support throwing against it. Ditto with the Germans getting so to Baku unless you basically get a Soviet surrender. I could see them possibly getting Moscow with different decisions although as you say it could instead be a much larger and more disastrous Stalingrad for them.
There are arguments about the fall of Rome with many factors being involved. Have seen some arguing that Rome's problems started when its expansion stopped because that reduced the loot, especially slaves and also meant with a fixed border no increasing in the secure provinces far from any frontier that could be left largely undefended but supply taxes and manpower to help support the frontier. Others have argued that logistics played a big part as many people who look at its expansion overlook that the Rhine and Danube were probably as much transit routes for supplies and the military as barriers, enabling them to more easily defend those borders by boat. Many other factors but once Rome stopped expanding you also had the issue that in periods of peace ambitious generals, especially after the replacement of the Julio-Claudian dynasty in 69AD were more tempted to think about a bid for the purple, especially once the period of the '5 good emperors' passed in 180AD. Which in turn prompted emperors to weakened border armies and increasingly sub-divide them - which while it made revolts a little more difficult when emperors were competent also made it increasingly difficult to actually defend those same borders effectively. All in all a very complex issue but I'm very much getting off thread here.
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Post by Max Sinister on Sept 10, 2023 10:52:30 GMT
This book about the Continuation War/German-Finnish Coalition looks interesting, but I don't want to spend 15 hours on a single audiobook. But this one was helpful, and had many good photographies: " Hitler's Arctic War" by Dr. Chris Mann. Now I can give it a try: How do we strike at the Murmansk railroad in a way that is realistic and works? Probably won't work: - Making Mannerheim supreme commander of the theater: Dietl actually suggested this to him in 1942, but he declined. (As if he didn't want the nazis to win...) - Making Dietl supreme commander: Suggested to him, he declined too. And admittedly, leading an army split into three groups far apart from each other is no easy task. Even if he's better than Falkenhorst. - Using wide, removable tracks for their panzers. In OTL they started this in 1942 only. What might work: - Moving some troops from Norway to Karelia. The Wehrmacht had nine to twelve divisions there. We know, the "führer" was paranoid about a British invasion. But with Dunkirk, he might agree to give one or two of them for Barbarossa. Of course, they'll need more supplies for that too, but at least they'll have more engineers to build roads. Because there were practically no west-east roads in Karelia. - Avoiding to split the party (er, troops). In OTL, they were supposed to strike at Murmansk, Kandalaksha, and Lou(k)hi. Maybe in this ATL the "führer"'s mood is better, and he allows them to unite, or strike in only two places, leaving the defense to the Finns. - Of course, they're still in a terrain where it's hard to advance. So the Soviets might find out what they're up to and move troops accordingly. - An attack on Belomorsk, which was almost undefended (read that in a book about Andropov - hm, if this works, I might kill him at this opportunity). Of course, unless the Soviets do the sensible thing and move troops there. But yes, blitzkrieg in this terrain is pretty much impossible. So there doesn't seem to make sense to think about making a faint here and then to quickly strike somewhere else... yeah, if the Soviets didn't have the only railroad... OK, now there's a railroad Laurila–Kandalaksha, but it was finished in 1942 only...
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Post by Max Sinister on Sept 14, 2023 6:02:22 GMT
Here are two more texts which were helpful about the Karelian theater, both by General der Infanterie Waldemar Erfurth who served as O Qu V (having the job of the military historian) under Franz Halder: Warfare in the Far NorthThe Last Finnish WarWhat won't work (at least not well enough): Airstrikes, special commands, paratroopers. They managed to cause damage at the railroad, but in each case, it could be repaired by the Soviets in a few hours. So we need the Heer to strike there. This thread suggests that Mannerheim is incapacitated, and general Aalto (who doesn't know or care that the US threatened to declare war if the Murman railroad was destroyed) attacks Belomorsk successfully, given that he has 27300 Finns against 12000 Soviets, and it's "just" 60 kilometers. But that would be in December, which might be too late already. Some more ideas what might work:- Finland attacks during Barbarossa from the very first day, instead of waiting some days as IOTL. Under these circumstances, you don't have the element of surprise. - Mannerheim suggested during winter 1941/42 to attack Belomorsk/Sarokka. Would this have been the best place to strike at the railroad? It's relatively far in the south - but also quite far from the border. Good idea, or him playing another trick on the nazis? - If Kandalaksha is the optimal place, it'd help if the Finns attacked there on June 23rd (or whichever is the day after Barbarossa starts ITTL), as Falkenhorst wanted. Maybe a Soviet airstrike on Helsinki causes big damage, so Mannerheim'll want retaliation? - And of course, the "führer" shouldn't make a decree to stop attacking there, as he did on August 2nd. - The Finns allowed the Soviets in Hangö to hang (pun not intended) around there until november/december. If they were defeated earlier (if necessary, by Germans), that'd free two Finnish divisions for the East. - A railroad built from Rovaniemi to the East would also help. Even if the Germans had to do it alone. - And since I already stated that Barbarossa will start 10-14 days earlier, that'll help too until the winter comes. Although Erfurth says that the winter is the optimal fighting time in this theater. (But only if your soldiers are trained appropriately, like the Finns and later the Soviets too.) What to do about it now? My original idea was: Dietl makes a feint in some place, while planning to make the real attack at Kandalaksha. His Soviet opponent has to make an important decision, decides in the wrong way, and when he wakes up to reality, the Wehrmacht has taken Kandalaksha and destroyed several miles of railroad. (They make take a page from the Yankees in "Gone with the Wind", make a fire from the railway sleepers/railroad ties, or trees [there are enough of them], heat the tracks in it, and twist them into circles to make repair even harder. GWTW wasn't verboten in Nazi Germany...) Do you think this is realistic enough? (About distances: It's about 300 km from Murmansk to Kandalaksha, 170 from Kandalaksha to Lou(k)hi, 220 from there to Belomorsk. In 1941, the railroad was still single-track, the trains on it ran on bituminous coal, made 20-25 mph, and there were 10-15 trains driving per day, both directions, and it was estimated that the track might handle up to 40.) |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 14, 2023 17:37:28 GMT
Here are two more texts which were helpful about the Karelian theater, both by General der Infanterie Waldemar Erfurth who served as O Qu V (having the job of the military historian) under Franz Halder: Warfare in the Far NorthThe Last Finnish WarWhat won't work (at least not well enough): Airstrikes, special commands, paratroopers. They managed to cause damage at the railroad, but in each case, it could be repaired by the Soviets in a few hours. So we need the Heer to strike there. This thread suggests that Mannerheim is incapacitated, and general Aalto (who doesn't know or care that the US threatened to declare war if the Murman railroad was destroyed) attacks Belomorsk successfully, given that he has 27300 Finns against 12000 Soviets, and it's "just" 60 kilometers. But that would be in December, which might be too late already. Some more ideas what might work:- Finland attacks during Barbarossa from the very first day, instead of waiting some days as IOTL. Under these circumstances, you don't have the element of surprise. - Mannerheim suggested during winter 1941/42 to attack Belomorsk/Sarokka. Would this have been the best place to strike at the railroad? It's relatively far in the south - but also quite far from the border. Good idea, or him playing another trick on the nazis? - If Kandalaksha is the optimal place, it'd help if the Finns attacked there on June 23rd (or whichever is the day after Barbarossa starts ITTL), as Falkenhorst wanted. Maybe a Soviet airstrike on Helsinki causes big damage, so Mannerheim'll want retaliation? - And of course, the "führer" shouldn't make a decree to stop attacking there, as he did on August 2nd. - The Finns allowed the Soviets in Hangö to hang (pun not intended) around there until november/december. If they were defeated earlier (if necessary, by Germans), that'd free two Finnish divisions for the East. - A railroad built from Rovaniemi to the East would also help. Even if the Germans had to do it alone. - And since I already stated that Barbarossa will start 10-14 days earlier, that'll help too until the winter comes. Although Erfurth says that the winter is the optimal fighting time in this theater. (But only if your soldiers are trained appropriately, like the Finns and later the Soviets too.) What to do about it now? My original idea was: Dietl makes a feint in some place, while planning to make the real attack at Kandalaksha. His Soviet opponent has to make an important decision, decides in the wrong way, and when he wakes up to reality, the Wehrmacht has taken Kandalaksha and destroyed several miles of railroad. (They make take a page from the Yankees in "Gone with the Wind", make a fire from the railway sleepers/railroad ties, or trees [there are enough of them], heat the tracks in it, and twist them into circles to make repair even harder. GWTW wasn't verboten in Nazi Germany...) Do you think this is realistic enough? (About distances: It's about 300 km from Murmansk to Kandalaksha, 170 from Kandalaksha to Lou(k)hi, 220 from there to Belomorsk. In 1941, the railroad was still single-track, the trains on it ran on bituminous coal, made 20-25 mph, and there were 10-15 trains driving per day, both directions, and it was estimated that the track might handle up to 40.)
I don't know enough about the details but some ideas sound reasonable. If something happens to prompt earlier Finnish open warfare while the Soviets are initially reeling then a push might be practical and as you say if they can capture a section of the line they could do a fair amount of damage that could disrupt things for a while. However could they, then supported by the Germans actually hold a section permanently to cut the route?
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Post by Max Sinister on Sept 16, 2023 18:50:33 GMT
Thanks stevep . It depends on how long the Soviets will need In fact, I've decided to ask at the AH (as in, Axis History) forums about this, can't hurt. One more detail: During their retreat, the Wehrmacht used a machine called "Schienenwolf", a kind of railroad plough, to destroy railroad tracks efficiently. They didn't invent it, though - so it might be in use in 1941 already. Here's a short video - seems it could move about as fast as an average walker, so you might indeed destroy several miles of tracks during a few hours. And if the Red Army will have to transport them by steam rail from 300+ kilometers, the wehrmacht will have some hours.
Oh, and the aforementioned trick of destroying CSA tracks was called "Sherman's neckties" according to WP, I just learned. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Sept 16, 2023 18:55:28 GMT
Thanks stevep . It depends on how long the Soviets will need In fact, I've decided to ask at the AH (as in, Axis History) forums about this, can't hurt. One more detail: During their retreat, the Wehrmacht used a machine called "Schienenwolf", a kind of railroad plough, to destroy railroad tracks efficiently. They didn't invent it, though - so it might be in use in 1941 already. Here's a short video - seems it could move about as fast as an average walker, so you might indeed destroy several miles of tracks during a few hours. And if the Red Army will have to transport them by steam rail from 300+ kilometers, the wehrmacht will have some hours.
Oh, and the aforementioned trick of destroying CSA tracks was called "Sherman's neckties" according to WP, I just learned. So did the Germans collect the train tracks if they destroyed it, would be a wast to just leave them lying. |
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Post by Max Sinister on Sept 16, 2023 19:01:05 GMT
Thanks stevep . It depends on how long the Soviets will need In fact, I've decided to ask at the AH (as in, Axis History) forums about this, can't hurt. One more detail: During their retreat, the Wehrmacht used a machine called "Schienenwolf", a kind of railroad plough, to destroy railroad tracks efficiently. They didn't invent it, though - so it might be in use in 1941 already. Here's a short video - seems it could move about as fast as an average walker, so you might indeed destroy several miles of tracks during a few hours. And if the Red Army will have to transport them by steam rail from 300+ kilometers, the wehrmacht will have some hours.
Oh, and the aforementioned trick of destroying CSA tracks was called "Sherman's neckties" according to WP, I just learned. So did the Germans collect the train tracks if they destroyed it, would be a wast to just leave them lying. It's just splintered wood, only good enough for making fires...
But while I'm at it, here's the piece from GWTW I was thinking of: "There was fighting at Jonesboro—that much Atlanta knew, but how the battle went no one could tell and the most insane rumors tortured the town. Finally a courier came up from Jonesboro with the reassuring news that the Yankees had been beaten back. But they had made a sortie into Jonesboro, burned the depot, cut the telegraph wires and torn up three miles of track before they retreated. The engineering corps was working like mad, repairing the line, but it would take some time because the Yankees had torn up the crossties, made bonfires of them, laid the wrenched-up rails across them until they were red hot and then twisted them around telegraph poles until they looked like giant corkscrews. These days it was so hard to replace iron rails, to replace anything made of iron."
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Sept 16, 2023 19:06:42 GMT
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Post by Max Sinister on Sept 16, 2023 19:31:46 GMT
No, hadn't heard of it yet, thanks!
The layout is somewhat odd, but I'm just looking at the content. Too bad most of it isn't done yet.
OK, after reading this bit (from a Mannerheim speech) "more than two million enemy dead" I'd say it's a Finnwank.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Sept 16, 2023 19:35:12 GMT
OK, after reading this bit (from a Mannerheim speech) "more than two million enemy dead" I'd say it's a Finnwank.
Finland did well with what they have, if it is one country on the other side i like to see do well it them, second is Hungary, i have a soft spot for Horty, does that make me a bad person. |
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Post by Max Sinister on Sept 16, 2023 19:44:03 GMT
OK, after reading this bit (from a Mannerheim speech) "more than two million enemy dead" I'd say it's a Finnwank.
Finland did well with what they have, if it is one country on the other side i like to see do well it them, second is Hungary, i have a soft spot for Horty, does that make me a bad person. Finland OK, but Horthy... even is he's an angel compared to the Nazis, Stalinists, Imperial Japanese, Mussolini, and his Croatian and Romanian neighbors, I'm still no fan of him.
Can we return to the topic of thread now?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Sept 16, 2023 19:52:32 GMT
Can we return to the topic of thread now? My apologies, sorry for the derailment. |
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Post by Max Sinister on Oct 4, 2023 23:51:31 GMT
Since I'm kinda stuck, I'll give you instead a few looks ahead to the post-war world. {Spoiler}
"Black Orchestra": While Canaris in OTL stayed around until 1944, the events told lead to his end much earlier. More important however was the fact that the Nazis upped Enigma security now. Even the Codebreaker geniuses from Bletchley Park under Alan Turing were challenged by this task. The German subs sank many more ships ITTL...
Abwehr: After Canaris' resistance was proven, the Abwehr became a part of the Imperium of Heinrich Himmler - which even scared many other Nazis. Canaris himself and many of his former agents were executed.
Australia: After the war, the country became a founding member of the Oceanic Nations.
Attlee: After the war, his political career continued, as Labour's representative in the "sensible coalition" with the Conservatives.
Armenia: In 1942, Stalin decided to give mostly Armenian-settled Nagorny Karabakh back to Armenia, since he didn't want Azerbaijan to become too powerful in this important area near the border, and wanted to keep these people at each others' throats.
Allende: During Chile's Presidential elections in 1970, Allende missed the absolute majority by far, but got more votes than either candidate of the Conservatives and Christian democrats. Hence, the Chilean Parliament had to decide, in which the Christian democrats sided with Allende. Thus he became the first socialist President des Landes.
Algeria: After the war, there was unrest in the colony. Finally, there were units of the Waffen-SS sent, which brutally suppressed them.
Adolf Nazi: In 1943, his Parkinson became noticeable, which was an (additional) load for him. Also, because people around him started to speculate whether there might be a different reason for his shaking hands - the suspicious drugs, which his doctor Theodor Morell gave him, or even the late consequences of Syphilis?
Adenauer: Died on 15 September 1949, wrecked by years-long suffering and repeated arrests by the Gestapo.
1984 (Orwell's book): When the real year 1984 had arrived in this ATL, the book once again gained a lot of attention...
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Post by Max Sinister on Oct 8, 2023 8:14:29 GMT
OK, I've thought about this alternative 1941 (first half, pre-Barbarossa). Most questions could be solved with some research and a random number generator (chaos of war and all that), but there remains one big question mark: Yugoslavia.
It's pretty much a mess... the Croatians dislike how the Serbs dominate the armed forces and the economy, but despite the Ustasha being supported by the Axis, can't gain independence on their own. The Serbs are rather pro-Allies, but with the BEF having been lost at Dunkirk, the Empire's efforts in Africa and Greece are hampered. So a putsch like in OTL would be extremely risky. And yet again, many Serbs actually preferred death to Axis cooperation. And Hungary, Italy and Bulgaria still have their claims for its territory...
For the moment, I have no putsch happen, even if they'll hate the situation. Neither will the Croatians rise up, or the Axis simply dismember the state. Also, Yugoslavia won't use the opportunity to gain Thessaloniki even if the "führer" offered it to them. (Prince Regent Pavle/Paul was married to a Greek after all.)
Of course, after Barbarossa starts, the Serbs might think that since their Orthodox Slavic Russian brothers are in the war now, they can afford a putsch... now that'd be chaotic... and we have to remember that king Peter will officially take over in September when he'll become 18 years old.
Other events:
- January 6th or so: FDR's speech about the Four Freedoms during the State of the Union address
- January: Normalschrifterlass in Nazi Germany, abolishing the black letters, which are now declared that they were actually Jewish
- January again: Uprising of the Iron Guard in Romania defeated by Antonescu. ITTL, Sima is locked up in Germany.
- January again again: Yamamoto suggests his plan of an airstrike at Pearl Harbor, imitating the battle of Taranto (the government doesn't want a war with the USA yet, however)
- January yet again: V campaign by Victor de Laveleye about the V sign; Churchill will start to use it in June of the same year
- January yet again again: A certain Erwin Rommel arrives in Northern Africa
- End of January: End of the Franco-Thai War
- End of January: Death of Nazi Germany's minister of justice (...) Franz Gürtner (Franz Schlegelberger becomes his interim replacement)
- Early February: Scharnhorst and Gneisenau try to break through into the Atlantic - but both of them are sunk by the HMS Hermes! As a consequence, Grand Admiral Erich Raeder is transferred on April 24th (his 65th birthday) to the "Führer"reserve
- February: Gabon conquered by Free French after three Weeks of fighting
- February 10th: Petain's trusted Darlan becomes deputy PM - under PM Laval
- February again: Operation Compass started, after the arrival of the Australians has given Wavell a third Division to use; Wavell has to leave the situation in East Africa as it is, for lack of troops; after one Week, his troops have reached Sollum - then hoewever, Rommel has the troops to stop him
- February yet again: Zhukov promoted to Chief of the General staff and deputy minister of defense
- February again again: A certain chemical element named Plutonium identified (after being produced in December 1940 already)
- End of February: Spain's ex-king Alfonso XIII dies, after having passed on his claim to crown prince Juan in January already
- End of February again: Bulgaria joins Tripartite Pact, putting more pressure on Yugoslavia
- March: Lend-Lease passes US Congress
- March again: Free French conquer Kufra. A small victory, but it means a lot to de Gaulle and his followers.
- March again again: Prince Regent Pavle/Paul of Yugoslavia signs the Tripartite Pact. He has insisted though to neither join the war nor even let Axis troops pass through Yugoslavian territory. No putsch... at least not yet.
- March yet again: Unternehmen Sonnenschirm (Operation Parasol) by the Deutsches Afrika-Korps was a success, they've driven the Allies from Sollum back to El Alamein. Now however, logistics prove to be an insolvable problem for Rommel.
- End of March: Golden Square putsches in Iraq. Regent Abd al-Ilah of Hejaz manages to flee, but his plane crashes, leading to his death (and the end of his branch of the Hashemites). New regent is Sharaf bin Rajeh.
- End of March again: Wehrmacht coming from Bulgaria invades Greece. Since most of the Greek Army is still standing in Epirus/Albania instead of the Metaxas Line, the Germans break through pretty fast.
- April: US troops stationed in Greenland, with the OK of the Danes
- April again: Greece capitulates after fighting the Germans for 25 days. ITTL, Churchill wasn't able to send them more than two Divisions, and these have suffered losses of 8000 men, leaving only 18,000 for Crete
- April yet again: British counterattack in Egypt fails
- May: Jan Smuts promoted to Field Marshal
- May again: Rudolf Hess does his flight to Scotland, breaks a leg when parachuting down, is caught by the Brits of course, still declared to be mad
- May yet again: Konrad Zuse presents his Z3, the first working digital computer. IT uses relays instead of vacuum tubes, postfix notation ("reverse Polish notation"), the binary system, and floating point arithmetics ("Gleitkommaarithmetik")
- May again again: After the Bismarck and Tirpitz went to the Atlantic together, they manage not only to both survive and sink the Hood, but the Prince of Wales as well. On June 12th, they're still active.
- Late May: Unternehmen Mars (OTL Mercury): Crete conquered by Wehrmacht, taking them 12 days. Since Enigma uses better security (because of Heydrich breaking the "Black Orchestra" in 1940, making the Nazis more suspicious), the Allies couldn't prepare as well as in OTL. The Wehrmacht still loses 2000 men. Less than 10,000 men evacuated to Egypt.
- End of May: British troops in Basra ready to strike against Iraqi putschists
- June: German-Turkish treaty of friendship
- June again: British counterattack in Egypt (think Op. Battleaxe) fails
- June 8th: Death of ex-kaiser Wilhelm II
- June 11th: A certain Richard Sorge warns "comrade" Stalin that a German invasion is imminent, but is dismissed
- End of June: Putsch in Iraq defeated, Zeid bin Hussein becomes new regent for Faisal II
Finally: For lack of Allied troops (already stretched to hold Egypt and Iraq), they don't manage to conquer territory in Syria or East Africa (back).
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 8, 2023 12:46:46 GMT
OK, I've thought about this alternative 1941 (first half, pre-Barbarossa). Most questions could be solved with some research and a random number generator (chaos of war and all that), but there remains one big question mark: Yugoslavia. It's pretty much a mess... the Croatians dislike how the Serbs dominate the armed forces and the economy, but despite the Ustasha being supported by the Axis, can't gain independence on their own. The Serbs are rather pro-Allies, but with the BEF having been lost at Dunkirk, the Empire's efforts in Africa and Greece are hampered. So a putsch like in OTL would be extremely risky. And yet again, many Serbs actually preferred death to Axis cooperation. And Hungary, Italy and Bulgaria still have their claims for its territory... For the moment, I have no putsch happen, even if they'll hate the situation. Neither will the Croatians rise up, or the Axis simply dismember the state. Also, Yugoslavia won't use the opportunity to gain Thessaloniki even if the "führer" offered it to them. (Prince Paul was married to a Greek after all.) Of course, after Barbarossa starts, the Serbs might think that since their Orthodox Slavic Russian brothers are in the war now, they can afford a putsch... now that'd be chaotic... and we have to remember that king Peter will officially take over in September when he'll become 18 years old.
Other events: - January 6th or so: FDR's speech about the Four Freedoms during the State of the Union address - January: Normalschrifterlass in Nazi Germany, abolishing the black letters, which are now declared that they were actually Jewish - January again: Uprising of the Iron Guard in Romania defeated by Antonescu. ITTL, Sima is locked up in Germany. - January again again: Yamamoto suggests his plan of an airstrike at Pearl Harbor, imitating the battle of Taranto (the government doesn't want a war with the USA yet, however) - January yet again: V campaign by Victor de Laveleye about the V sign; Churchill will start to use it in June of the same year - January yet again again: A certain Erwin Rommel arrives in Northern Africa - End of January: End of the Franco-Thai War - End of January: Death of Nazi Germany's minister of justice (...) Franz Gürtner (Franz Schlegelberger becomes his interim replacement) - Early February: Scharnhorst and Gneisenau try to break through into the Atlantic - but both of them are sunk by the HMS Hermes! As a consequence, Grand Admiral Erich Raeder is transferred on April 24th (his 65th birthday) to the "Führer"reserve - February: Gabon conquered by Free French after three Weeks of fighting - February 10th: Petain's trusted Darlan becomes deputy PM - under PM Laval - February again: Operation Compass started, after the arrival of the Australians has given Wavell a third Division to use; Wavell has to leave the situation in East Africa as it is, for lack of troops; after one Week, his troops have reached Sollum - then hoewever, Rommel has the troops to stop him - February yet again: Zhukov promoted to Chief of the General staff and deputy minister of defense - February again again: A certain chemical element named Plutonium identified (after being produced in December 1940 already) - End of February: Spain's ex-king Alfonso XIII dies, after having passed on his claim to crown prince Juan in January already - End of February again: Bulgaria joins Tripartite Pact, putting more pressure on Yugoslavia - March: Lend-Lease passes US Congress - March again: Free French conquer Kufra. A small victory, but it means a lot to de Gaulle and his followers. - March again again: Prince Paul of Yugoslavia signs the Tripartite Pact. He has insisted though to neither join the war nor even let Axis troops pass through Yugoslavian territory. No putsch... at least not yet. - March yet again: Unternehmen Sonnenschirm (Operation Parasol) by the Deutsches Afrika-Korps was a success, they've driven the Allies from Sollum back to El Alamein. Now however, logistics prove to be an insolvable problem for Rommel. - End of March: Golden Square putsches in Iraq. Regent Abd al-Ilah of Hejaz manages to flee, but his plane crashes, leading to his death (and the end of his branch of the Hashemites). New regent is Sharaf bin Rajeh. - End of March again: Wehrmacht coming from Bulgaria invades Greece. Since most of the Greek Army is still standing in Epirus/Albania instead of the Metaxas Line, the Germans break through pretty fast. - April: US troops stationed in Greenland, with the OK of the Danes - April again: Greece capitulates after fighting the Germans for 25 days. ITTL, Churchill wasn't able to send them more than two Divisions, and these have suffered losses of 8000 men, leaving only 18,000 for Crete - April yet again: British counterattack in Egypt fails - May: Jan Smuts promoted to Field Marshal - May again: Rudolf Hess does his flight to Scotland, breaks a leg when parachuting down, is caught by the Brits of course, still declared to be mad - May yet again: Konrad Zuse presents his Z3, the first working digital computer. IT uses relays instead of vacuum tubes, postfix notation ("reverse Polish notation"), the binary system, and floating point arithmetics ("Gleitkommaarithmetik") - May again again: After the Bismarck and Tirpitz went to the Atlantic together, they manage not only to both survive and sink the Hood, but the Prince of Wales as well. On June 12th, they're still active. - Late May: Unternehmen Mars (OTL Mercury): Crete conquered by Wehrmacht, taking them 12 days. Since Enigma uses better security (because of Heydrich breaking the "Black Orchestra" in 1940, making the Nazis more suspicious), the Allies couldn't prepare as well as in OTL. The Wehrmacht still loses 2000 men. Less than 10,000 men evacuated to Egypt. - End of May: British troops in Basra ready to strike against Iraqi putschists - June: German-Turkish treaty of friendship - June again: British counterattack in Egypt (think Op. Battleaxe) fails - June 8th: Death of ex-kaiser Wilhelm II - June 11th: A certain Richard Sorge warns "comrade" Stalin that a German invasion is imminent, but is dismissed - End of June: Putsch in Iraq defeated, Zeid bin Hussein becomes new regent for Faisal II Finally: For lack of Allied troops (already stretched to hold Egypt and Iraq), they don't manage to conquer territory in Syria or East Africa (back).
I could see a lot of this with things going bad for the allies but a couple of points. a) If Compass has been delayed that long and hence not having the dramatic successes in Oct/Nov 40 onward would Hitler be willing to send German forces to Libya - or Mussolini be happy with the idea of the Germans intruding into 'his' war? Also given how frantic Churchill was all the time to do something I suspect he would insist on doing something before then.
b) You would need quite some miraculous butterflies to have Tirpitz ready for operation in May 41. Plus if they were I could see the RN committing more ships, or simply combing their fast ships in one more powerful squadron preparing to intercept either route just south of Iceland. After this battle what happened to the two German ships. Did they raid the convoy route as planned or Bismarck suffer the historical damage prompting them to head for Brest. If they get there the bomber barons will be overruled and Brest will be the prime if not sole target for Bomber Command.
Related to that I can't see a small carrier like Hermes sinking both twins. Possibly crippling one enabling it to be caught by surface units with the other having to flee rather than die with its sister.
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