Choices: Simon Goes A-Timelining/ISOTing

I've decided on a dual track approach, with the longer term 1898/99 beginning here being something to put together in a fulsome fashion; and starting a 1919 ISOT to dive right into the 20th century.

The general set up for the latter will be a quite 'persuasive' traveler + a house full of books and tech + a shed with some interesting planes and vehicles; some injections of gold, diamonds and oil production related to the above location; and an 'improved' R101 turning up along with hangar + Hood shifting to a WW2 rebuilt configuration, replete with fleet flagship library.

The intent is to look at the 20th Century from a recognisable basis of post WW1 and thus utilise some of the contributions I've made to another thread over on AH.com since 2020.

The timeframe will follow on from Fall and Rise, which is 75% complete from my point of view, needing just this current section completed, a final one and then a concluding epilogue of sorts; I'm also hoping to get over writer's block and attack some other stories that have been on hiatus for a few years, in addition to the DE Timeline which is a fairly easy bit of background work when I get a spare moment.

The starting point will be January 1st 1919, so as to provide a few little nudges to Versailles, Saint-Germain, Sevres et al; take a slightly different path in Ireland minus Dev; take some different paths in the Russian Civil War; put together a comprehensive Middle Eastern policy; avoid Amritsar; support the Greeks and have Kemal meet with an accident; the death of Stalin; preempting the scuttle at Scapa; a different Third Anglo-Afghan War; Hitler meets some new friends and goes on a ship to a far away island; and a few weapons systems/aircraft/ships begin development.

Steve,

The flagship library is the icing on the cake, but a Hood of a 1944 era is nothing to sneeze at for multiple weapons systems.

It isn’t aimed at avoiding a partition, just modifying the @ one.

You aren’t thinking deviously enough here. What concessions could be wrought through division of ships as well as how it could ‘hold back’ some competitors…

Saving Alexander is always a good idea, considering Churchill’s quote on the monkey bite’s consequences.

I’ll post some more ideas up as part of the process.

Simon

I spent 3 hours working on a carefully laid out naval post, but it was lost to a computer crash, which is lovely.

I shall therefore have to put it back together over the course of this evening, bit by bit, edited into this post.

Areas being covered are

General Issues/Ideas
- The 1919 Fleet Plan has some reasonable elements and some less workable ones
- Every capital ship prior to the Orions is hopelessly obsolete, but can do a job as a bargaining chip
- Save Dreadnought, Inflexible and 2 PDNs as museum ships, plus Australia and New Zealand as training ships, then museum duty

1920s Budgets and Construction
1920: 88.4 million
1921: 80.8 million, 1 minelayer cruiser, 
1922: 56.2 million, 2 battleships, 2 carrier conversions
1923: 52.6m, 1 submarine
1924: 55.6m, 5 8in cruisers, 2 destroyers (Ambuscade and Amazon)
1925: 59.7m, 4 8in cruisers, 2 submarines
1926: 57.6m, 3 8in cruisers , 6 submarines
1927: 58.1m, 1 8in cruiser, 9 destroyers, 6 submarines, 2 sloops
1928: 56.9m, 9 destroyers, 4 submarines, 4 sloops
1929: 55.8m, 1 6in cruiser, 5 destroyers, 3 submarines, 4 sloops

Force Composition
- Highest order priority is cruisers, then carriers, then destroyers, followed by capital ships and subs
- The absence of the German HSF threat makes a very large fleet unlikely and unnecessary
- There isn’t a need for a large fleet in the “Atlantic”, but rather a Home Fleet, a Med Fleet, an Atlantic Fleet of battlecruisers at Gibraltar as the swing force and a Far Eastern Fleet at Singers
- Aim towards 4 Dominion ‘fleet units’, with this worked into any Treaty discussions. Even if it can’t be achieved in the 20s, it can be aimed at in the 1930s after its expiry
- Solid investment in the 1920s makes any future spectre of a threat a non factor

Capital Ships
- Of current ships, only the (new) *Hood is a first line ship, with the vaunted QEs second rate, the Rs third rate and the Iron Dukes somewhere around 3.5
- New ships are a priority, and the advantages of the ISOT give an opportunity to lay down 4 new ships in 1920. These will be mixes of the K2 and J3, with 12 x 16” in four triples, 24 secondary guns and a lot more. Speed of 32 knots and displacement of ~52000t. Interim name of Nelsons
- In any treaty talks, keep everything well along, bargain off 2 further ships as carrier conversions (see below) and then advocate not a building holiday, but a well regulated cool down
- In return for the 7 Orions and KGVs, get 4/4/2/1 from 1921-1925, then a further 4/4/2/1 from 1926-1930
- Maximum calibre of 16” and maximum displacement of between 45,000 and 48,000t; I’ll have to reread WTRE again
- If the US ends up with 6 slow SDs and 4 fast tinclad Lexingtons, plus 2 big carriers, that isn’t a bad or threatening thing
- Britain rounds out the 1920s with 12 new ships, Hood, 5 QEs, 5 Rs and R+R, plus the Iron Dukes recently decommissioned for 29 ships. Not bad
- The USN would have 2 Pennsylvanias, 3 New Mexicos, 2 Tennessees, 4 Colorados, 6 SDs, 4 Lexingtons and 8 new ships for 29, with the numbers meaning far less; 9 obsolete ships apiece, but the Lexingtons are half past useless and the US battleline is far slower
- Sell Princess Royal and Lion to the Dutch, followed by Tiger 

Aircraft Carriers
- Eagle sold back to Chile to be reconverted to a battleship. Too slow and small to be kept
- Pegasus and Ark Royal go to reserve when no longer needed off Russia
- Finish Argus and Hermes for the training and experimental role
- Begin conversion of C and G ASAP, so they can slot into ‘experimental tonnage’ 
- Have two capital ships on the stocks so that they can be converted to “36,000t” aircraft carriers
- Any treaty agreement to have a maximum size of at least 32,000t, allowing 4 decent ships to be built over the 1920s
- Tonnage allowance to be 200,000 for Britain and the USA, 150,000 for Japan, 100,000 for France and Italy 
- This will allow for a nominal 4 x ‘32,000t’ + 2 x ‘36,000t’ plus C/G/F; the last three are ships with brief lives ahead of them as carriers, so there will be a very contortions

Cruisers
- Apart from the Hawkins class and Emerald class, the other cruisers of the RN are obsolete or obsolescent
- The USN and IJN both have designs on 8” cruisers, so that genie is out of the bottle
- Preparing an enlarged County class cruiser design on 12,500t ‘standard displacement’ with 8 x 8” would be the best balanced option. Secondary battery of 6 twin 125mm, tertiary battery of 3”, plus 40mm and 25mm, torpedoes and aircraft as placeholders 
- Accompanying them will be a 9600t ‘Super Leander’ on a similar but slightly smaller hull, creating a Baltimore/Cleveland type relationship. 4 triple 6”, 6 twin 125mm, plus 3”, 40mm and 25mm
- From 1921 or so, total of 24 and 40 will be planned
- Heavy cruiser and light cruiser are @ terms from the LNT, so here, both will be ‘cruisers’
- An actual ‘post Treaty’ cruiser design will be prepared as a contingency exercise
- The Ds are adequate for the 20s, but with new construction, the Cs can go early 


Destroyers
- Building extra V/Ws may well be an option. The M class are only suitable to sit in reserve and give the look of numbers and the R/S class, whilst fine for the 1920s, have no room for growth or reason to plow any more money than necessary through them
- There will be no need for equivalents to Amazon or Ambuscade as test ships for post WW1 DDs, so that the RN can go to serial production of the next generation 
- These will be larger than the Interwar Standards of @ of 1300-1800t, coming in at 2000t standard displacement. This will rise gradually, so that every 4 classes/years or so, there will be a distinct new ‘tranche’ of a coherent overall type
- Top speed of 36 knots, 8 x 24” torpedo tubes (2 x 4), depth charges, an ASW mortar system, 4 DP 125mm single main guns, 8 x 40mm and 12 x 25mm, plus a number of .5” “Vickers” heavy machine guns for junk bashing
- The new gun is based on the issue that both the USN and IJN will go for a 5” gun, whilst the French, Italians and Soviets will go for larger calibre guns than the RN; the ballistic sweet spot around that point; the saga of the RN’s contortions around their MCG and DP weapons; and the utility of being able to standardise. Medium term goal is for partially automated, then full auto versions. It will be a common calibre with the Army’s heavy AA gun
- 16 ships, or 2 flotillas, of A class to be ordered ASAP, which will likely be 1921
- Leaders to be supplied by 1920 and 1921 construction, modified and sized up
- Into the 30s, there will be scope for a ‘super destroyer’ to overmatch some anticipated foreign developments. A 3600t standard displacement ‘Super Tribal’ with 4 x 2 125mm, a lot of 40mm and 25mm would fill the ‘traditional light cruiser’ gap very well
- Rather than build ‘sloops’ in the 1920s, the *RN will build frigates of 1950t, 25 knots with four new DP 4” guns (actually 3.9” or 100mm), lighter weapons and ASW capacity. In peacetime, they will provide all the general purpose duties of sloops, such as colonial patrol, supporting gunboats and regional presence
- 8 frigates a year through the 1920s

- Design work on an improved 1250t version of the Castle class ‘corvette’ is to proceed at a slow and steady rate, not out of a pressing need, but to provide for the ‘low’ end of a ‘high-medium-low’ mix, along with a 625t ‘vedette’ broadly equivalent in role to the submarine chaser. Main thing is to have designs on the books, not any sense of needing to build them 


Submarines
- 40 H class, 12 R class and 27 L class provide the interim fleet whilst designs and priorities get sorted
- The M class stick around as oddities
- Over the decade, rather than 9 Odins, 6 Parthians and 4 Rainbows, 12 Odins, 12 Parthians and 8 Rainbows will be ordered, followed by 64 S Boats

It is a January 1st 1919 PoD that makes it fairly clear that a return to normality isn’t on the cards. This is not just the classic ISOT traveller with a house full of books and computers, but aircraft, jeeps, Land Rovers and a tank in the shed; a device in the cellar that produces 162 bars of gold per day, plus half a pound of diamond and some strange increases to some oil supplies in the East Midlands; plus a ‘refitted 1944/45 Hood’, avec library and examples of guns.

The US ships are 6 SDs, 4 Lexingtons, SD Repeat 1 x 4 and SD Repeat 2 x 4. Those will be slower than RN ships, but they are also deficient in armour design, armament and most likely sensors/RDF. The RN has 12 new ships plus a brand new Hood; I might even think of some form of cosmic joke in the form of the Rs being ‘upgraded/uprated’ if my inklings are right and this frog in my throat turns into delirium.

There is a lot of juggling to be done and the main byproducts of the ‘deliverance’ is that there will be less of a Geddes Axe in a number of areas and, in time, more money; ability to grab/plan to secure resources and advantages sufficient to further offset problems; and adoption of a long term plan.

I’ll have to add more in the morning, but this isn’t to say that the naval budget is the only thing at issue, nor that the battleship is the most important vessel.

On a side note, I remember why fiddling with Springsharp can be so frustrating now; it isn’t a simple tool.

The modernised Hood, considering the ship isn’t yet finished or due to commission for 17 months, won’t be something widely known per se. That part will be covered up with an ‘accident’ at John Brown.

Fully with you on Paragraph 2.

Collated Ideas Holding Post: RAF

1919 Strength: 4000 aircraft, 114,000 personnel

*May 1919: Imperial Gift to Australia, South Africa, Canada and India of 100 aircraft
August 1919: Rank nomenclature adopted
September 1919: Initial Strength set at 33,500 personnel (1065 officers) ; here, 65,000 (2500)

Initial force level of 175 squadrons (2100) + 25 training squadrons (300)
65 bomber squadrons, 60 fighter squadrons, 20 reconnaissance/general purpose squadrons, 10 transport squadrons, 20 attack squadrons

Home
- Fighter Command
- Bomber Command
- Strike Command
- Transport Command

RAF Germany
RAF Mediterranean
RAF Middle East (Palestine, Egypt, Iraq, Arabia)
RAF India
RAF Far East


RAF Middle East: An initial 5 squadrons of bombers, which would rise up to ~10 squadrons of bombers and 10 of fighters by 1926, plus smaller attachments of recce, transport and utility aircraft. This will serve as the basis of the Middle East Air Force
- RAF Mediterranean to cover the air defence of Gibraltar, Malta, Cyprus and other bases that will ideally be acquired (Minorca and Crete come to mind. Basing rights, mind you, not conquering the whole island). This would have a greater emphasis on fighters and recce planes vs bombers and ground attack
- RAF India will need to rise to 6 bomber, 6 fighter and 8 cooperation squadrons by ~1925
- RAF Far East: Aim for an initial strength of 5 fighter and 3 bomber squadrons by ~1926 (2 fighter sqn in Hong Kong, 1 in Singapore, 1 in Malaya, 1 in Borneo)

(1929 in @:

Wessex Bombing Area: 11 bombing squadrons
Fighting Area: 12 fighter squadrons, 1 communications squadron, 1 night fighter flight
Air Defence Group: 3 bombing squadrons; 5 bombing squadrons of auxiliary air force units
Coastal Area: 3 Fleet Fighter Flights, 1 Torpedo Bomber Squadron, 1 Coastal Reconnaissance Flight, 1 Flying Boat Development Flight

Egypt: 3 bombing squadrons, 1 Army cooperation squadron
Iraq: 4 bombing squadrons, 1 Army cooperation squadron, 6 sections of Armoured Car Wings
India: 2 bombing squadrons, 3 Army cooperation squadrons
Aden: 1 bombing squadron, 1 Armoured Car section
Transjordan and Palestine: 1 bombing squadron, 1 Armoured Car company
Mediterranean: 3 Fleet Fighter Flights, 2 Fleet Torpedo Flights, 1 Coastal Reconnaissance Flight, 3 Fleet Spotter Flights)

20s Generation 1 (1920/21):

Handley Page V/2500 heavy bombers (improve the Super Handley)
Vickers Vimy medium bombers
Hawker Hart light bombers
Vickers transport
Westland Wapiti general purpose/army cooperation planes
Bristol Bulldog, Hawker Fury, Gloster Gauntlet fighters

Here, the point is to go for what can be reasonably accelerated in the next 24-36 months so as to reach the penultimate or ultimate generation of biplanes. The 1920s didn't see a huge leap forward in engines per se, but within that statement lies a lot of room for change. The Camel, SE.5 and Fokker D.VII had 130-160hp engines for top speeds of 120-140mph compared to 490/178 for the Bulldog, 640/223 for the Fury and 645/230 for the Gauntlet. The Bristol Jupiter (400hp), Napier Lion (480+ hp) and Rolls Royce Eagle (360+ hp) were in production as of 1919, so that the Bristol Mercury and Rolls Royce Kestrel, at the minimum, can be expedited with technical literature, drawings and money. 

Sitting in the shed are a de Havilland Tiger Moth, a Hawker Hurricane, a North American T-6 Texan and a Supermarine Spitfire.

Gen 1.5 (1924/25):

Five years after the advanced biplanes of the early 1920s, the next generation should be forthcoming. These will be monoplanes

Fighter: Hawker 'Polikarpov I-16 or Monoplane Fury'; + de Havilland twin engine heavy fighter
Interceptor: Supermarine Type 224
Attack: Hawker Henley
Heavy Bomber: Handley-Page Harrow (4 engine version)
Medium Bomber: Armstrong-Whitworth Whitley
Light Bomber: Fairey Battle or Vickers Wellesley
Transport: Bristol Bombay

The names are prescriptive, but depict the approximate equivalent @ planes for the role. Their purpose is to give aircraft companies experience at designing and fielding monoplanes, troubleshooting, flight testing and more

At this point, progressively start to increase squadron strength to 24 aircraft

Gen 2 (1929/30)
Hawker Hurricane
Supermarine Spitfire
Vickers Windsor
Avro B-29
de Havilland Mosquito

Fighter Command controls the fighters and fighter-interceptors (Spitfires), long range fighters (Reapers or Mosquitoes), night-fighters (Beaufighters) and the general purpose fighters (Hurricanes).
Support/Strike Command should control the Typhoons ( attack fighters), fighter-bomber versions of the Hurricane/Hind, strike fighters and strike bombers (appropriate version of the Mosquito) and an attack bomber (something in the mold of a combination of the Bristol Brigand and Douglas A-26 Invader).
Bomber Command has the heavies (4 engine), mediums (two engine) and lights (Mosquitoes).

Gen 2.5 (1933/34)
Last Generation of prop planes

Gen 3/1st Jets (1936)
Air Superiority Fighter: A version of the Supermarine Type 510, armed with 4 x 25mm cannon, to be built for the RAF as the Spitfire and RN as the Seafire
Fighter Bomber: A proto Hunter, built by Hawker as the Hurricane for both services
Light/Ground Attack Fighter: A de Havilland Vixen/swept wing Venom built as the Vampire
All Weather/Night/LR Interceptor: A Gloster Javelin built as the Meteor
Multirole Strike Fighter: Something like the swept wing Meteor variant shown here (F.8 pic about 7th down) aviadejavu.ru/Site/Arts/Art6561.htm

Put the engines closer to the fuselage to free up wing space for bombs, rockets, early guided weapons and the like. Build as the Bristol Beaufighter
Multirole Strike Bomber: A version of English Electric Canberra with a view to range, height, speed and versatility built as the de Havilland Mosquito

Medium Bomber: Turboprop B-29/50 built as the Handley Page Halifax
Heavy Bomber: Vickers C/B-36 turboprop analogue built as the Avro Lancaster

So, the plan is
Gen 1 (1920): Biplanes
Gen 1.5 (1924): First generation monoplanes. Equally as important in terms of getting out fighters and twin engine bombers to get used to the types and capabilities
Gen 2 (1929/30): Our interim force of Spitfires, Hurricanes, Wellingtons, Mosquitoes and Lancs from @. Not needed to be built in big numbers, but just as a contingency to cover an emergency war
Gen 2.5 (1933/34): The last piston engined planes, again more as a covering option and to keep production up
Gen 3 (1936): Jets

I don't think there is anything special, important or sacred about the Gen 2 planes here, regardless of their glory in another world.

Without needing a mass mobilisation force, total procurement of the 1930 'Mosquito' will be around 500-600 across strike bombers and strike fighters. The Interim Force of 1930 is just a contingency cover for the ultimate generation of prop and turboprop planes of 1933/34 and the jets of 1936. So far, we've got the Tiger Moth as the quick and dirty Hurricane equivalent, a Mossie, a fighter equivalent to the @ Spitfire, a 4 engine heavy bomber and possibly a Windsor based medium.

That jet force should be built in the following numbers:

Spitfire: 1800 (960 Fighter Command, 480 Tactical Command, 120 MAF, 120 MEAF, 120 FEAF)
Hurricane FB: 2400 (960 Fighter Command, 600 Tactical Command, 240 MAF, 240 MEAF, 240 FEAF)
Vampire FGA: 1800 (480 Fighter Command, 600 Tactical Command, 120 MAF, 240 MEAF, 240 FEAF, 120 Empire deployment)
Meteor AW/N/LR: 960 (600 Fighter Command, 120 MAF. 120 MEAF, 120 FEAF)
Beaufighter SF: 840 (240 Fighter Command, 240 Tactical Command, 120 MAF, 120 MEAF, 120 FEAF)
Mosquito SB: 1800 (600 Bomber Command as LBF, 600 Tactical Command, 120 MAF, 240 MEAF, 240 FEAF)
Halifax MB: 1200 (960 Bomber Command, 120 MEAF, 120 FEAF)
Lancaster HB: 1200 (1200 Bomber Command)

Total: 12,000 aircraft

That baseline/target force of 500 combat squadrons would be drawn from Britain, augmented with personnel and 'Empire squadrons' (like Article XV squadrons in @) from Canada, Australia, NZ, South Africa, Rhodesia, Ireland, the West Indies, Israel and India.

In addition, there would be Transport Command (including VIP planes and Royal Flights), the few Special Operations aircraft (including fixed wing gunships), tankers attached to Bomber Command, weather recce planes, target tugs, historical flights, SAR, and various utility aircraft and helicopters. I haven't crunched those numbers, but between 2000 and 3000 would be the maximum there, depending on the size and equipment of Transport Command and the number of tankers needed (which depends on bomber range and size).

Training would be conducts by the EATS on a Commonwealth wide basis rather than one specifically under the RAF, with further operational training done when pilots are attached to squadrons.

MAF = Mediterranean Air Force for operations from Gibraltar, Malta, Crete and Cyprus, along with such other bases/areas that may be acquired. In addition to 5 permanent Empire deployed FGA squadrons, a further 5-10 from Fighter Command would be rotated through different areas as needed/to fly the flag/get deployment experience

The only possible 'gap' is for a COIN aircraft, where I see a potential role for a twin engine turboprop attack/observation/light transport; and a light attack Strikemaster. Total combined procurement would be 480 aircraft at maximum. The relevant text for air operations in COIN/bush warfare is Operation Firedog by Malcolm Postgate, which laid out the relative advantages and disadvantages of different types in the Malayan Emergency. I'm not seeing a burning need for the Mosquito, nor for a 'Super Hornet' turboprop successor, although the latter would be a very useful part of the 'ultimate prop plane generation' and can sit in reserve for a decade after a brief service life.

What of maritime patrol/Coastal Command? That really is better off under RN operational command and control and I'd go that bit further and put the relevant types under a RNAS. It stops them from being the red headed stepchild of the RAF.

What of helicopters? They, along with tactical transport, aerial spotting and other tactical battlefield missions, are largely better off under the Army Air Corps. This isn't to say that the RAF or RN shouldn't operate helicopters and rotodynes - far from it - but that there should be a clear and logical division of roles.

A few points to consider:

- Cost will vary from ~10,000 pounds for a Vampire to ~100,000-150,000 for a superheavy bomber
- It is bigger than the RAF's peak operational strength of WW2, but without any of the wastage of wartime at play
- British aircraft production should be worked up to be able to build those 12000 planes in ~4 years
- Frontline strength would be matched by aircraft held in reserve (typically 100-150% in WW2), which adds to the overall orders
- This then would be an enormous shot in the arm of British aircraft manufacturers and be accompanied by appropriate export sales; I would say that consolidation into 4-5 'Groups' of firms/marques is an optimal accompaniment of this, along with a refurbishment of the Royal Aircraft Factory as a direct government means of manufacturing certain planes
- What the Aircraft Groups get isn't entirely lost to the Treasury, as they will still pay tax on it. It should be a virtuous circle
- The RAF will need to replace these planes in due course, rather than rest on its laurels or say it is too expensive. One advantage of having a future cheat book is that it is known that complacency will mean being caught by the competition. These Gen 1 jets (actually fairly decent late 1940s transonic ones in comparison to @) will be replaced in 1942 by a Mach 2 generation: advancing by rushes, confounding any competitor (specifically American) attempts to catch up