lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 4, 2021 18:51:50 GMT
So while doing some research on the Great War update i found this:
German U-boats had been expanding their reach over the course of the war, even if the scope of their targets had been narrowed by politics. Large merchant U-boats like the Deutschland had traveled to the US and back. In October, U-53 stopped at Newport, RI and then sank five British and neutral ships just off American waters, all in accordance with prize rules, while American destroyers nearby rescued survivors.
The possibility of U-boat operations on the other side of the Atlantic having been proven, Germans began to investigate increasing their presence. Planning to use American ports could be problematic; staying for too long risked the boat being interned, and of course if America were to enter the war they would no longer be an option. On November 12, the German ambassador to the United States cabled his counterpart in Mexico City, saying that “the Imperial Government [of Germany] would see with the greatest of pleasure the Mexican Government’s consent to…a [U-boat] base in its territory.” Germany had long taken an interest in Mexican affairs, having plotted to return Huerta to power, and some in Germany saw Mexico as a useful distraction should America enter the war.
So what if Mexico agrees to it, what will the United states do, what will the United Kingdom do, how effective will a German submarine base be.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 4, 2021 19:04:00 GMT
So while doing some research on the Great War update i found this: German U-boats had been expanding their reach over the course of the war, even if the scope of their targets had been narrowed by politics. Large merchant U-boats like the Deutschland had traveled to the US and back. In October, U-53 stopped at Newport, RI and then sank five British and neutral ships just off American waters, all in accordance with prize rules, while American destroyers nearby rescued survivors.
The possibility of U-boat operations on the other side of the Atlantic having been proven, Germans began to investigate increasing their presence. Planning to use American ports could be problematic; staying for too long risked the boat being interned, and of course if America were to enter the war they would no longer be an option. On November 12, the German ambassador to the United States cabled his counterpart in Mexico City, saying that “the Imperial Government [of Germany] would see with the greatest of pleasure the Mexican Government’s consent to…a [U-boat] base in its territory.” Germany had long taken an interest in Mexican affairs, having plotted to return Huerta to power, and some in Germany saw Mexico as a useful distraction should America enter the war.So what if Mexico agrees to it, what will the United states do, what will the United Kingdom do, how effective will a German submarine base be.
I would say that it could trigger a US dow, against Mexico if not Germany as they would see it as breach of their claims under the Monroe Doctrine.
If Germany managed to establish this in secret and keep it supplied for a while it could cause a serious problem as it would greatly extend the range of the U boats, although they might be careful what ships they attack or even stop prior to the US entering the war.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 4, 2021 19:10:53 GMT
So while doing some research on the Great War update i found this: German U-boats had been expanding their reach over the course of the war, even if the scope of their targets had been narrowed by politics. Large merchant U-boats like the Deutschland had traveled to the US and back. In October, U-53 stopped at Newport, RI and then sank five British and neutral ships just off American waters, all in accordance with prize rules, while American destroyers nearby rescued survivors.
The possibility of U-boat operations on the other side of the Atlantic having been proven, Germans began to investigate increasing their presence. Planning to use American ports could be problematic; staying for too long risked the boat being interned, and of course if America were to enter the war they would no longer be an option. On November 12, the German ambassador to the United States cabled his counterpart in Mexico City, saying that “the Imperial Government [of Germany] would see with the greatest of pleasure the Mexican Government’s consent to…a [U-boat] base in its territory.” Germany had long taken an interest in Mexican affairs, having plotted to return Huerta to power, and some in Germany saw Mexico as a useful distraction should America enter the war.So what if Mexico agrees to it, what will the United states do, what will the United Kingdom do, how effective will a German submarine base be. I would say that it could trigger a US dow, against Mexico if not Germany as they would see it as breach of their claims under the Monroe Doctrine.
If Germany managed to establish this in secret and keep it supplied for a while it could cause a serious problem as it would greatly extend the range of the U boats, although they might be careful what ships they attack or even stop prior to the US entering the war.
Doubt the Germans can build a base in secret, especially if the need to ship supplies to their Mexican base. Also as we seen in the Great War thread, we see regular U-boat attacks against neutral American ships. |
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Post by simon darkshade on Aug 4, 2021 19:21:37 GMT
We can answer the last point first - it would have a very short life.
The Americans would be quite willing to use it as a casus belli, against both Mexico and Germany, on top of everything else.
As for Britain, they would not need to do much other than give thanks.
As a final point, the era was very much one where simply referring to the British Empire/Britain and the Empire as “the United Kingdom” is selling them short to the point of inaccuracy. It wasn’t just a case of the Home Nations being at war, but India (no Home Rule or separate authority), the Dominions (pre Statute of Westminster), the Empire (colonies, protectorates, puppets) and British finance (extensive influence throughout the world, especially in the few remaining neutrals). At this time, it goes beyond simple nomenclature to making the mistakes that Germany did in determining the calculus of war.
In historical contemporary sources, we really don’t see “UK” as dominant term until the 1960s…after the cumulative impact of both World Wars, Suez, decolonisation and the beginnings of the (now deceased) dalliance with the EEC.
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Post by halferking on Aug 4, 2021 22:36:17 GMT
It is called the Zimmerman Telegram. It was written by Artur Zimmerman a high ranking official in the German Foreign Office, the German Minister for Mexico, Heinrich von Eckhardt. It contained instructions to von Eckhardt to approach the Government of President José Venustiano Carranza de la Garza and make the following proposal
“…make war together, make peace together, generous financial support and an understanding on our part that Mexico is to reconquer the lost territory in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona…”
Zimmerman also instructed von Eckhardt to suggest to President Venustiano Carranza that his Government should approach Japan and try to bring them into the war on the side of the Central Powers.
At this time however Great Britain had effectively severed all telegram cables from Germany forcing Berlin to send communiques via their embassies. This particular telegram was forwarded to the German Embassy in Copenhagen for onward transmission to the German Embassy in Mexico, via an intermediary (in this case the United States). Unfortunately when the Embassy sent the telegram to America it past through south west England, in order to boost the signal so that the message could be successful transmitted across the Atlantic, which played right in to the British Admiralty's hands. The telegram was decoded by Room 40 a department within the Admiralty specifically tasked with deciphering German communications.
The information in the telegram was explosive and would push America in to declaring war against the Central Powers. Two Problem (1) how could the British convince President Wilson that the he telegram was authentic and (2) how were they going to explain how the intelligence came in to their possession after all they could not admit that Britain had been intercepting American diplomatic telegrams nor could they let the Germans know that Room 40 had the ability to decode German communications...
If this ATL is to be successful you would need to deal with the Zimmerman Telegram. I would suggest that you find some way to notify either the Americans to the fact that Britain was spying on everyone or to the Germans that the British had decoded their plan. Both carry their own difficulties.
America was already angry with the Germans, but would the fact that Britain had violated the sanctity of diplomatic communications be enough for President Wilson to reaffirm America's neutrality or would the possibility of Mexico entering the war against the US be too great a threat to ignore after all Americans had occupied Veracruz in 1914 and by 1917 (the time of the telegram) America had already launched the Pancho Villa Expedition so relations were pretty tense.
If you notify the Germans to Room 40 activities then they would change their codes and lock the British out, which could led to London being forced to declare peace.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 5, 2021 4:04:17 GMT
We can answer the last point first - it would have a very short life. The Americans would be quite willing to use it as a casus belli, against both Mexico and Germany, on top of everything else. As for Britain, they would not need to do much other than give thanks. As a final point, the era was very much one where simply referring to the British Empire/Britain and the Empire as “the United Kingdom” is selling them short to the point of inaccuracy. It wasn’t just a case of the Home Nations being at war, but India (no Home Rule or separate authority), the Dominions (pre Statute of Westminster), the Empire (colonies, protectorates, puppets) and British finance (extensive influence throughout the world, especially in the few remaining neutrals). At this time, it goes beyond simple nomenclature to making the mistakes that Germany did in determining the calculus of war. In historical contemporary sources, we really don’t see “UK” as dominant term until the 1960s…after the cumulative impact of both World Wars, Suez, decolonisation and the beginnings of the (now deceased) dalliance with the EEC. So the Mexican U-Boat Base telegram was send on November 12th 1916, if we go by the Zimmermann Telegram and the United States get wind of it ore the United Kingdom intercepts the U-Boat Base telegram and hands it over to the United States we can see the United States declaring war on Germany in February 1917, would 3 months make a difference for the war. |
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Post by simon darkshade on Aug 5, 2021 4:55:44 GMT
Even 2 months change will mean that US troops are in France in decent numbers from earlier in 1918, so, yes, it has a bearing.
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Post by halferking on Aug 5, 2021 7:53:19 GMT
We can answer the last point first - it would have a very short life. The Americans would be quite willing to use it as a casus belli, against both Mexico and Germany, on top of everything else. As for Britain, they would not need to do much other than give thanks. As a final point, the era was very much one where simply referring to the British Empire/Britain and the Empire as “the United Kingdom” is selling them short to the point of inaccuracy. It wasn’t just a case of the Home Nations being at war, but India (no Home Rule or separate authority), the Dominions (pre Statute of Westminster), the Empire (colonies, protectorates, puppets) and British finance (extensive influence throughout the world, especially in the few remaining neutrals). At this time, it goes beyond simple nomenclature to making the mistakes that Germany did in determining the calculus of war. In historical contemporary sources, we really don’t see “UK” as dominant term until the 1960s…after the cumulative impact of both World Wars, Suez, decolonisation and the beginnings of the (now deceased) dalliance with the EEC. So the Mexican U-Boat Base telegram was send on November 12th 1916, if we go by the Zimmermann Telegram and the United States get wind of it ore the United Kingdom intercepts the U-Boat Base telegram and hands it over to the United States we can see the United States declaring war on Germany in February 1917, would 3 months make a difference for the war. General John Joseph Pershing was put in charge of the American Expeditionary Force and it soon became apparent that the United States had limited capacity to conduct warfare outside of the North American continent. At the time it had a standing army of around 127,000 men and very few ships. By June 1917 the AEF was only playing a bit part, but Pershing wanted the AEF to have the ability to act independently of the Allies, which led, by the time hostilities had ended, to a standing army of four million and 800,000 in the other branches of the military. It took about 3 months for the US to become fully engaged at the Front, so as Simon Darkshade has said if America had two months notice of the difficulties they would face in OTL they would be able to sort it out much quicker and by the time they engage they could have a significant presence on the continent. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 5, 2021 15:13:22 GMT
Even 2 months change will mean that US troops are in France in decent numbers from earlier in 1918, so, yes, it has a bearing. But Germany would still be in the fight, it will take some months before the United States are in the fight for real with any numbers, also Germany is still in 1916 and 1917 fighting a two front war, would this help the Russians ore is the Russian Revolution going to happen no matter a earlier entry of the United States. |
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Post by simon darkshade on Aug 5, 2021 16:12:00 GMT
Russia is out.
Even if the AEF isn’t going to be a factor for the Huns until early 1918, it is still present in bigger numbers from the beginning of the Spring Offensive, not it’s end.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 5, 2021 16:17:52 GMT
Russia is out. Even if the AEF isn’t going to be a factor for the Huns until early 1918, it is still present in bigger numbers from the beginning of the Spring Offensive, not it’s end. So Germany will be able to hold out, even if the Americans start doing everything 3 months earlier. Could we see the Germans deciding not to do the German spring offensive but instead try to hold what they have ore might we see a earlier major offensive happening. |
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Post by simon darkshade on Aug 5, 2021 16:29:01 GMT
Given that there will be no change until March vs no change until May, yes.
Germany had no choice but an offensive. Otherwise, it loses in 1919, to both plans of that name.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 6, 2021 8:33:14 GMT
Russia is out. Even if the AEF isn’t going to be a factor for the Huns until early 1918, it is still present in bigger numbers from the beginning of the Spring Offensive, not it’s end.
Unfortunately agree. Lenin's coup in Oct/Nov makes it virtually impossible to either keep Russia fighting - especially since moral had already largely collapsed - and also makes a civil war pretty much inevitable.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 6, 2021 8:39:23 GMT
Given that there will be no change until March vs no change until May, yes. Germany had no choice but an offensive. Otherwise, it loses in 1919, to both plans of that name.
I would actually argue that the only option to avoid defeat would be to go on the defensive in the west in early 1918 - assuming that things go similarly to OTL in the east - but I can't see the German leaderships accepting that as, especially with L&H in effective charge they will only consider military victory.
If Germany goes for a defensive operation with also a political campaign offering some settlement in the west returning to 1914 borders and possibly some restrictions on what it does in the east it might both mobilize enough public support and retain enough manpower to hold and seriously blood the allied attacks, especially the US who will be so green. With both Britain and France facing exhaustion of both manpower and will and the powerful Hindenburg Line not even the new tactics that the British army is developing might breach it, at least not without huge losses.
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Post by simon darkshade on Aug 6, 2021 9:15:20 GMT
Steve,
That is predicated on the German defences being able to hold. They weren’t.
Now, before their over extension of the Spring Offensive, were the Germans in a theoretically stronger position defensively? Yes. However, it was not impregnable and was smashed open in @.
It might not take a hundred days, but it will be done.
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