I have read Steve's 2016 "What-If: Japan attacks the Soviet Union Instead of America". Since it is considered an "OLD Thread" I would like to address the basic idea based on an article I just read in National Interest.
Premise: a two front war against the Soviets in 1941 could prove decisive against Stalin.
This is based on the article "The Ultimate World War II What-If: Japan Attacks Russia Instead of America
Could Stalin have fought a two-front war?"
by Michael Peck
By June1941, Japanese leaders were split between the army's “strike north” and attack the soviets plan and the navy's “strike south” plan. What if the Japanese seeing the success of the Germans approaching Moscow decided to declare war against the Soviets. Now we have Japan attacking the soviets from the east, as Germany advances from the west.
Two key questions come to mind.
1. Without the "sneak attack on Pearl Harbor, would isolationist America have declared war on Japan? I think not.
2. Could the Japanese econmy support such a war without seizing "The Southern Resource Area".
Militarily, the outcome of a 1941 Russo-Japanese war would have been far from certain. Granted Russian tanks and artillery won the Khalkin Gol border battle in 1939 BUT the Soviets were not fighting for their lives against a still triumphant German army. IMO this would make an initial 1941 attack more likely to be won by the Japanese. Granted, again, Japanese Army did not have many tanks and the ones they had were hardly a match for the Soviets newer ones which would put them at a disadvantage against Soviet tanks. Logistics was not a Japanese long suit but the Soviets were fighting a long way from their manufacturing and recruiting centers, The Transsiberian railroad was the only real supply route and it had limited capacity. The Japanese proved that their forces could accomplish a lot with much smaller logistics than most armies.
in 1941 the IJA was composed of battle-hardened vets and it's units were at full strength. The IJN had proven it could move fast, were masters of infiltration tactics and night fighting. They were also universally fanatics. The Soviets could be fanatical at times but IMO, not anywhere as much so as the Japanese. The IJN couild count on very strong, skilled air and naval support. The IJN could have provided devastating naval gunfire along the coats and up the rivers. The IJN's superb and long range Zero fighter squadrons, supporting the IJA air craft would guarantee air superiority for a drive on the vital port of Vladivostok and up the rivers.
Another factor in Japan's favor in 1941 was ineptitude shown by the Soviet military leaders against the Finns and later Germans by Joe's purges of the officer corps. The Siberian troops were good, but in 1941, they were at the end of a long supply line from western Russia that would have been disrupted by the German capture of factories and resources. Stalin valued Moscow a lot more than Vladivostok, so which front gets the available troops and supplies? So Japan might have taken Vladivostok and the Siberian coast without too much effort.
The key is would the Japanese divert enough Soviet resources to allow the Germans to take Moscow?
Granted, the Germans advancing on Moscow were under strength, nearing exhaustion, with major supply problems.
However, the Soviet armies at Moscow were newly formed, recruits, badly commanded and still reeling from the German Blizkrieg. The Soviet counteroffensive without the Siberian troops is a lot more iffy. Even if it succeeded without the Siberians, the soviets would have done a lot less damage to the Germans. The real impact might have been in 1942. Germany came close to capturing Stalingrad and the Caucasus oil fields before the Soviets launched their counteroffensive in November 1942 which was greatly reliant on Siberian troops. If that counteroffensive failed in November 1942 there is no Stalingrad catastrophe for Germany.
Stalin suffered a nervous breakdown when Germany launched its massive Barbarossa surprise attack. How would Joe reacted to the news that Japan was attacking? The Red Army suffered four million casualties in 1941; it had enough problems attempting to build new divisions and control the ones it already had in western Russia, without having to deal with a Siberian front. Maybe that finishes Joe. Without Joe the soviets crumble. Set, Game and Match to the axis?
Eagerly awaiting your comments. Remember i'm no historian and grand strategy is way beyond the pay grade of an E-8 sailor.
