Zyobot
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Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
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Post by Zyobot on Jan 7, 2021 21:59:03 GMT
It was once the centerpiece of the communist world and a superpower that directly competed with the United States. But less than eighty years after its founding, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics ended not with a bang, but a whimper. Undergoing stagnation and strain through the 1980s before breaking apart for good in 1991, that void was now filled by the Russian Federation. Where the hope of Marx's fabled utopia guided Kremlin policy and national purpose for the better part of a century, now stood a declining nation that billionaire oligarchs and an ex-KGB agent now treated as a personal backyard.
Given how decades of decay can catch fire when discontent reaches a critical mass, what's the likelihood that Russia's problems could spiral into another civil war sometime in the future? It may take a while to fully materialize, but a complacent regime that fails to learn the lessons of history can--and often--will share in the fate of its vanquished predecessors. Which, given Russia's intimate familiarity with that, is a cardinal takeaway for any leader hoping to avoid catastrophe down the line.
Thank you in advance, Zyobot
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 8, 2021 13:03:25 GMT
It was once the centerpiece of the communist world and a superpower that directly competed with the United States. But less than eighty years after its founding, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics ended not with a bang, but a whimper. Undergoing stagnation and strain through the 1980s before breaking apart for good in 1991, that void was now filled by the Russian Federation. Where the hope of Marx's fabled utopia guided Kremlin policy and national purpose for the better part of a century, now stood a declining nation that billionaire oligarchs and an ex-KGB agent now treated as a personal backyard. Given how decades of decay can catch fire when discontent reaches a critical mass, what's the likelihood that Russia's problems could spiral into another civil war sometime in the future? It may take a while to fully materialize, but a complacent regime that fails to learn the lessons of history can--and often--will share in the fate of its vanquished predecessors. Which, given Russia's intimate familiarity with that, is a cardinal takeaway for any leader hoping to avoid catastrophe down the line. Thank you in advance, Zyobot
Its definitely a possibility. Could come about in one of two ways. That there is a disputed succession when Putin finally goes which descends into violent conflict. Or that social discontent over the corruption, brutality and incompetence of the regime causes a massive wave of anger when at some point too many people are desperate enough to overcome their fears of retaliation. You could have a merger of the two with some political or military figures using such a wave of discontent to try and ride to power, or conversely some powerful figures deciding something must change and providing a focus for such unrest.
Given the long history of violent repression in Russia and the large amounts of weaponry, especially of course nukes this could be a very nasty scenario, both for the Russian population and much of the rest of the world. Even if you have relatively rational decision making by the people involved it could easily descend into disaster.
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Post by american2006 on Jan 8, 2021 16:36:57 GMT
It was once the centerpiece of the communist world and a superpower that directly competed with the United States. But less than eighty years after its founding, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics ended not with a bang, but a whimper. Undergoing stagnation and strain through the 1980s before breaking apart for good in 1991, that void was now filled by the Russian Federation. Where the hope of Marx's fabled utopia guided Kremlin policy and national purpose for the better part of a century, now stood a declining nation that billionaire oligarchs and an ex-KGB agent now treated as a personal backyard. Given how decades of decay can catch fire when discontent reaches a critical mass, what's the likelihood that Russia's problems could spiral into another civil war sometime in the future? It may take a while to fully materialize, but a complacent regime that fails to learn the lessons of history can--and often--will share in the fate of its vanquished predecessors. Which, given Russia's intimate familiarity with that, is a cardinal takeaway for any leader hoping to avoid catastrophe down the line. Thank you in advance, Zyobot It’s certainly a possibility. The rather new Russian Federation has been led by one Vladimir Putin for most of its short history. When he dies in the near future, it could lead to a destabilization of Russia, but let’s not get into current politics. You’d definitely see Siberia breaking off as well as a new country new the Caucasus. NATO would get involved
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Zyobot
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Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
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Post by Zyobot on Jan 8, 2021 18:16:34 GMT
It’s certainly a possibility. The rather new Russian Federation has been led by one Vladimir Putin for most of its short history. When he dies in the near future, it could lead to a destabilization of Russia, but let’s not get into current politics. You’d definitely see Siberia breaking off as well as a new country new the Caucasus. NATO would get involved One possibility I've been thinking about is mass-Balkanization, albeit with more like a dozen or so coherent zones and itinerant warlords rummaging for leftover table scraps. Probably also with loose nukes, considering how the comparatively peaceful breakup of the USSR caused a few of them to go missing as is. Imagining what full-blown civil war would mean for nuclear proliferation begets more dire predictions, I'd think.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 8, 2021 19:17:52 GMT
It’s certainly a possibility. The rather new Russian Federation has been led by one Vladimir Putin for most of its short history. When he dies in the near future, it could lead to a destabilization of Russia, but let’s not get into current politics. You’d definitely see Siberia breaking off as well as a new country new the Caucasus. NATO would get involved One possibility I've been thinking about is mass-Balkanization, albeit with more like a dozen or so coherent zones and itinerant warlords rummaging for leftover table scraps. Probably also with loose nukes, considering how the comparatively peaceful breakup of the USSR caused a few of them to go missing as is. Imagining what full-blown civil war would mean for nuclear proliferation begets more dire predictions, I'd think.
Ugh! That a potential nightmare scenario.
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Zyobot
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Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
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Post by Zyobot on Jan 8, 2021 19:32:24 GMT
One possibility I've been thinking about is mass-Balkanization, albeit with more like a dozen or so coherent zones and itinerant warlords rummaging for leftover table scraps. Probably also with loose nukes, considering how the comparatively peaceful breakup of the USSR caused a few of them to go missing as is. Imagining what full-blown civil war would mean for nuclear proliferation begets more dire predictions, I'd think.
Ugh! That a potential nightmare scenario.
*Sighs sadly* I know. That doesn't make it implausible, though. If I were to avoid current politics and take some creative liberties here, maybe you'd get an expy (or few) of this delightful gentleman running around for a good while. If they're anything like the guy I just mentioned, then someone lobbing loose nukes about would be more than just a hypothetical global-security issue at that point. Hopefully, the worldwide geopolitical backdrop to this won't share a similar fate. Though, given how a gigantic world power will have gone down in flames at that point, I could've easily jinxed myself just now .
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 9, 2021 12:59:22 GMT
Ugh! That a potential nightmare scenario.
*Sighs sadly* I know. That doesn't make it implausible, though. If I were to avoid current politics and take some creative liberties here, maybe you'd get an expy (or few) of this delightful gentleman running around for a good while. If they're anything like the guy I just mentioned, then someone lobbing loose nukes about would be more than just a hypothetical global-security issue at that point. Hopefully, the worldwide geopolitical backdrop to this won't share a similar fate. Though, given how a gigantic world power will have gone down in flames at that point, I could've easily jinxed myself just now .
Why did I guess who you meant before I looked at the link. One problem with the way Putin has been pushing ultra nationalism in Russia is that if there was internal conflict, or probably more likely foreign intrusions I could see some idiot start lobbing nukes about. [Watching a video yesterday where the suggestion was that Chinese migration to the Russian Far East would mean they would be the largest population group in the region.] There is some uncertainty here as to what area because the Russian_Far_East is a much larger area than the map he showed which seemed more like Outer_Manchuria which is the lands that Russia got from China in 1858, confirmed in 1860. Even with the lesser area this would be a significant loss for Russia as it includes the terminus of the Trans Siberian railway and their only ice free port in the Pacific at Vladivostok as well as the loss of face.
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