oscssw
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Post by oscssw on Aug 7, 2020 17:03:14 GMT
What happens next? Anyway the Japanese can salvage the thing? Can they use it as a bargaining chip? Does the fear somehow the Japanese can get it operational materially change the plan to invade?
IMO the second A bomb would be used ASAP on Hiroshima to destroy the first.
Your thoughts?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 7, 2020 17:15:15 GMT
What happens next? Anyway the Japanese can salvage the thing? Can they use it as a bargaining chip? Does the fear somehow the Japanese can get it operational materially change the plan to invade?
IMO the second A bomb would be used ASAP on Hiroshima to destroy the first.
Your thoughts?
Will the Japanese know what they have in their hands, only when people start dying of radiation might the Japanese start to think that this is no ordinary bomb, if Bunsaku Arakatsu who runs the Japanese Naval research program into nuclear technology, known as the F-Go Project get involved they might put 1 + 1 together and come to the conclusion this might be A bomb, but that will not happen overnight. Also have moved the thread to Alternate History: After 1900 AD as it involves more in a AH discussion than a historical discussion. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 8, 2020 10:14:45 GMT
What happens next? Anyway the Japanese can salvage the thing? Can they use it as a bargaining chip? Does the fear somehow the Japanese can get it operational materially change the plan to invade?
IMO the second A bomb would be used ASAP on Hiroshima to destroy the first.
Your thoughts?
This assumes that the conventional part of the detonation mechanism has failed, otherwise the nuclear components are scattered over the city and are no use to anyone. Also that the bomb lands in a circumstance that doesn't seriously damage it. Which seems unlikely as it wasn't parachute retarded as far as I can tell but possibly a very lucky landing say in the harbour might do it.
Japan has very little chance of using the bomb even if they capture it and realise quickly what it is. They could only try and place it in a suspected invasion zone then seek to explode it once the US have landed. Otherwise its far too large for any Japanese a/c to carry, let alone the requirement of any such a/c being able to penetrate US air defences. Which would require being able to repair/replace the mechanism for detonating the bomb.
Would agree that the 2nd bomb - 3rd if your count the earlier test - would almost certainly be used against Hiroshima in part to prevent the Japanese gaining any information or possible ability to use the device as well as possibly hide the initial failure. This bomb was of a different design, both in terms of using Plutonium rather than Uranium and being an implosion device rather than a gun one so it should work.
One factor here is that the US will want to find out why the 1st bomb failed. They could suspect the idea of arming the bomb in flight - which was done to remove the risk of an accidental explosion if the plane crashed on take-off - caused the failure with some error being made in that. This might mean that if there is another uranium gun type device used it would be armed before take off which does create the chance of an accidental detonation.
If the 1st bomb fails even assuming the 2nd works it might mean the fanatics demanding continued resistance have more support and hence possibly even prolonging the war and Japan's agony. IIRC the US was a little while from any more warheads being ready, a month or so I think so it depends on how long continued resistance goes and how much losses suffered by both sides before surrender occurs.
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oscssw
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Post by oscssw on Aug 8, 2020 12:32:02 GMT
There is time for more bombs to be used. Operation Olympic was scheduled for November. Colonel Lyle E. Seeman reported that at least seven Fat Man-type plutonium implosion bombs would be available by X-Day Nov 1, 1945.
General Marshall planned to use tactical nukes. Ken Nichols, the District Engineer of the Manhattan Engineer District, wrote that at the beginning of August 1945, "planning for the invasion of the main Japanese home islands had reached its final stages, and if the landings actually took place, we might supply about fifteen atomic bombs to support the troops.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 8, 2020 13:08:54 GMT
There is time for more bombs to be used. Operation Olympic was scheduled for November. Colonel Lyle E. Seeman reported that at least seven Fat Man-type plutonium implosion bombs would be available by X-Day Nov 1, 1945.
General Marshall planned to use tactical nukes. Ken Nichols, the District Engineer of the Manhattan Engineer District, wrote that at the beginning of August 1945, "planning for the invasion of the main Japanese home islands had reached its final stages, and if the landings actually took place, we might supply about fifteen atomic bombs to support the troops.
Ouch that would be bloody disastrous for all involved, including the invading forces. Obviously more in the pipeline more quickly than I though.
Mind you I suspect that Japan would still surrender before an invasion. Between the Soviet invasion of Manchuria causing a lot of concern with their hostility towards communism and the growing social and economic collapse it can't last much longer.
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James G
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Post by James G on Aug 8, 2020 16:25:25 GMT
There is time for more bombs to be used. Operation Olympic was scheduled for November. Colonel Lyle E. Seeman reported that at least seven Fat Man-type plutonium implosion bombs would be available by X-Day Nov 1, 1945.
General Marshall planned to use tactical nukes. Ken Nichols, the District Engineer of the Manhattan Engineer District, wrote that at the beginning of August 1945, "planning for the invasion of the main Japanese home islands had reached its final stages, and if the landings actually took place, we might supply about fifteen atomic bombs to support the troops. Should this have happened, I shudder to think of the consequences for anyone in the way. I remember reading about the atomic tests done in Nevada (IIRC) in the late 40s/early 50s. Boom went the bomb and US troops emerged from shelter to exercise battle conditions in a post-atomic environment. The danger from radiation was known about after Hiroshima and Nagasaki but these troops tests still went ahead... possibly to confirm that. I don't know if such things would occur ITTL if US troops had gone ashore into Japan behind A-bomb blasts. |
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Post by EwellHolmes on Aug 8, 2020 22:32:42 GMT
There is time for more bombs to be used. Operation Olympic was scheduled for November. Colonel Lyle E. Seeman reported that at least seven Fat Man-type plutonium implosion bombs would be available by X-Day Nov 1, 1945.
General Marshall planned to use tactical nukes. Ken Nichols, the District Engineer of the Manhattan Engineer District, wrote that at the beginning of August 1945, "planning for the invasion of the main Japanese home islands had reached its final stages, and if the landings actually took place, we might supply about fifteen atomic bombs to support the troops.
Ouch that would be bloody disastrous for all involved, including the invading forces. Obviously more in the pipeline more quickly than I though.
Mind you I suspect that Japan would still surrender before an invasion. Between the Soviet invasion of Manchuria causing a lot of concern with their hostility towards communism and the growing social and economic collapse it can't last much longer.
I'm not sure what collapses you refer to, while the Soviet invasion had no real impact on the decision to surrender; such was done solely at the behest of the Emperor as a result of the twin nuclear attacks. Even then, you had the attempted coup on 8/15 to prevent exactly that. |
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ssgtc
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Post by ssgtc on Aug 9, 2020 17:06:37 GMT
Ouch that would be bloody disastrous for all involved, including the invading forces. Obviously more in the pipeline more quickly than I though.
Mind you I suspect that Japan would still surrender before an invasion. Between the Soviet invasion of Manchuria causing a lot of concern with their hostility towards communism and the growing social and economic collapse it can't last much longer.
I'm not sure what collapses you refer to, while the Soviet invasion had no real impact on the decision to surrender; such was done solely at the behest of the Emperor as a result of the twin nuclear attacks. Even then, you had the attempted coup on 8/15 to prevent exactly that. Not quite sure where you got that from, but the Soviet invasion of Manchuria DEFINITELY had an impact on the Japanese decision to surrender when they did. It wasn't the deciding factor, but it was a factor. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Aug 9, 2020 17:28:26 GMT
I'm not sure what collapses you refer to, while the Soviet invasion had no real impact on the decision to surrender; such was done solely at the behest of the Emperor as a result of the twin nuclear attacks. Even then, you had the attempted coup on 8/15 to prevent exactly that. Not quite sure where you got that from, but the Soviet invasion of Manchuria DEFINITELY had an impact on the Japanese decision to surrender when they did. It wasn't the deciding factor, but it was a factor. I agree. The defeat of the army in Manchuria was devastating and this helped in a major way to bring the war to an end. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 9, 2020 17:46:31 GMT
Good to watch about a third Atomic Bomb Attack on Japan in 1945 which would also happen if the first bombed failed.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Aug 9, 2020 22:34:19 GMT
I'm not sure what collapses you refer to, while the Soviet invasion had no real impact on the decision to surrender; such was done solely at the behest of the Emperor as a result of the twin nuclear attacks. Even then, you had the attempted coup on 8/15 to prevent exactly that. Not quite sure where you got that from, but the Soviet invasion of Manchuria DEFINITELY had an impact on the Japanese decision to surrender when they did. It wasn't the deciding factor, but it was a factor. After both of the atomic attacks and the Soviet invasion, the vote to surrender in the War Council was 3-3. Only the intervention of the Emperor-who was motivated solely by the atomic bombings as evidenced by Lord Keeper of the Privy Seal Kido's diary-broke the deadlock and even then there was the aforementioned coup attempt on 8-15. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 10, 2020 14:22:24 GMT
Not quite sure where you got that from, but the Soviet invasion of Manchuria DEFINITELY had an impact on the Japanese decision to surrender when they did. It wasn't the deciding factor, but it was a factor. After both of the atomic attacks and the Soviet invasion, the vote to surrender in the War Council was 3-3. Only the intervention of the Emperor-who was motivated solely by the atomic bombings as evidenced by Lord Keeper of the Privy Seal Kido's diary-broke the deadlock and even then there was the aforementioned coup attempt on 8-15.
There's definitely the possibility that a failure of the Hiroshima bomb could delay the surrender even if a 2nd one worked although baring a successful coup attempt I would say it only delays matters a little.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Aug 10, 2020 22:19:57 GMT
After both of the atomic attacks and the Soviet invasion, the vote to surrender in the War Council was 3-3. Only the intervention of the Emperor-who was motivated solely by the atomic bombings as evidenced by Lord Keeper of the Privy Seal Kido's diary-broke the deadlock and even then there was the aforementioned coup attempt on 8-15.
There's definitely the possibility that a failure of the Hiroshima bomb could delay the surrender even if a 2nd one worked although baring a successful coup attempt I would say it only delays matters a little.
The Japanese intention was a fight to the death, the militarists had no intention of surrender and only the forceful intervention of the Emperor prevented this from going ahead. |
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gillan1220
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I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
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Post by gillan1220 on Aug 29, 2020 16:11:55 GMT
The Japanese do not know what the bomb is. The best chance is the U.S. would probably send a second bomb to hit Hiroshima.
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