Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Jul 18, 2020 17:58:40 GMT
With about eighty-something more years to go and the tendency of nations and society to dramatically change over time, how might the geopolitical situation evolve over the remainder of the twenty-first century (and perhaps heading into the beginning of the twenty-second as well)? Presuming that current prognostications have some truth to them, concerns that are picking up steam today--like automation, climate change, changing demographics, economic globalization, strained public finances, and more potentially subversive technologies such as cryptocurrency and 3D printing--will help dictate the coming turn of events. Never mind the various 'black swan' surprises in store for us throughout the coming years and decades.
As one caveat, though, I'd prefer to keep more short-term topics best bandied about in 'Politics and Current Affairs' out of this thread. Unless the staff decide to move it there should discussion veer off in that direction, of course.
Thank you in advance, Zyobot
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 19, 2020 11:59:09 GMT
With about eighty-something more years to go and the tendency of nations and society to dramatically change over time, how might the geopolitical situation evolve over the remainder of the twenty-first century (and perhaps heading into the beginning of the twenty-second as well)? Presuming that current prognostications have some truth to them, concerns that are picking up steam today--like automation, climate change, changing demographics, economic globalization, strained public finances, and more potentially subversive technologies such as cryptocurrency and 3D printing--will help dictate the coming turn of events. Never mind the various 'black swan' surprises in store for us throughout the coming years and decades.
As one caveat, though, I'd prefer to keep more short-term topics best bandied about in 'Politics and Current Affairs' out of this thread. Unless the staff decide to move it there should discussion veer off in that direction, of course.
Thank you in advance, Zyobot
Well bearing major disasters [which could occur even this year] China and probably India will become more powerful and influential. The west will decline in importance politically and economically unless significant elements of it gets its act together and prompts others to follow them. Russia is probably going to decline as well, given its limited demographic resources and the appalling mis-leadership its suffering which is unlikely to get better in the near term. The other big political issues will be how much will conflicts change this process as even a minor nuclear war, which grows more likely as more powers achieve nuclear status could change matters fairly drastically, as could some major conventional ones. Furthermore as the post-WWI consensus fades and demographic and environmental problems increase warfare and conflict is I fear more likely.
I suspect that globalisation will be rolled back somewhat as the major blocs especially become more fearful and mutually mistrustful. Also the failure of the neo-classical economic theory, both in national and social terms will discredit it and globalisation, which it often champions.
Not sure how bad climate change and other environmental problems will be before enough people start taking them seriously and whether enough groups will do so to make a difference. Given the complexity of the issue, let alone the continued denial of much of the establishment, its possible its already too late for a real 'success' in resolving such problems. Especially given the interaction between so many factors involved here.
Technological change will make big impacts but how and in what way is largely impossible to tell. It might depend on exactly how far assorted things develop and how different regions face political, economic and social/cultural opposition to new developments. Such changes will always present challenges to vested interests or cultural ideas.
One other factor I think is likely to be more significant will be asymmetric warfare in various forms. From assorted terrorist type attacks to more organised attacks on infrastructure to methods such as Russia and probably China has used to manipulate elections in the west and also seek to malform public opinion. This could be very disruptive as the ability for great damage becomes more easily available.
In terms of finances it seems unlikely that the periods of greatly increased public and private debt can continue that much longer. Since the 1980's they have been pushed to high levels and as societies become weaker as well the necessary trust in institutions and governments that is required for a belief that such debts can be managed, let alone reduced is increasingly eroded. Coupled with the decline in globalisation its likely that some governments will take a more active role which can be very effective if well organised or very bad if dominated by established interests. Some other areas might try reducing drastically government involvement but, apart from the fact that won't seriously affect private debt this is unlikely to resolve the problems and also likely to put those regions at a disadvantage compared to others.
Anyway my initial thoughts on the issues raised.
Steve
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Post by american2006 on Aug 23, 2020 16:04:11 GMT
Your going to see the end of superpowers running the world (ie Pax Britannica, Pax Americana) and China, India, the US, and others will be on more or less equal grounds.
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archibald
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The PRC was standing on the edge of an abyss. And Mao said "let's make a Great Leap Forward"
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Post by archibald on Aug 24, 2020 19:19:02 GMT
The 100 000 ton aircraft carrier will die - sooner or later, like the battleships. how will it die, and what will replace it is anybody guess. My gues is large amphibious ships with F-35B and tiltrotors.
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ukron
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Post by ukron on Aug 25, 2020 13:16:35 GMT
A major conflict of influence for the Mediterranean between the European Union, Turkey, Russia and China, with the possibility of seeing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict added to it.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Aug 25, 2020 13:47:10 GMT
A major conflict of influence for the Mediterranean between the European Union, Turkey, Russia and China, with the possibility of seeing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict added to it. How about the US, will it have a role to play there? Or, will it probably decline and/or stay out of the conflict for once?
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ukron
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Post by ukron on Aug 25, 2020 13:50:39 GMT
I don't see US having a major role over Mediterranean in the next years, they have issues with Chinese in Pacific and Russians in Artic sea.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 25, 2020 14:12:03 GMT
I don't see US having a major role over Mediterranean in the next years, they have issues with Chinese in Pacific and Russians in Artic sea.
Not sure about that simply because your assuming, probably correctly that Russia and China will be involved in such a period of tension in the Med so they will be seeking to counter them there. Also with oil interests and political/religious ones over Israel its unlikely that the US would withdraw from the region or seeking to have a clear if no longer overwhelming influence there. Very difficult for any great power, especially possibly if it thinks its power is declining, to accept withdrawing for a region where its held influence and power.
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ukron
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Post by ukron on Aug 26, 2020 11:53:10 GMT
In view of contemporary American policy, I think that the United States will take a long time to reestablish relations of trust with the countries of the region, in particular the European countries. and US-Turkish relations could be frowned upon and lead to some sort of agreement between Israel, Greece and Russia.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 27, 2020 11:59:29 GMT
In view of contemporary American policy, I think that the United States will take a long time to reestablish relations of trust with the countries of the region, in particular the European countries. and US-Turkish relations could be frowned upon and lead to some sort of agreement between Israel, Greece and Russia.
True if Trump's more isolationist and erratic policies prove to be a lasting shift in the US's position rather than a relatively short blip there will be difficulties with the European allies due to diverging interests. Although given that both are likely to feel more threatened by say Russia and Islamic fundamentalism there might still be some basis for common ground. However even if that didn't happen the US will still have interests in the region which it will want to back regardless of whether or not their in partnership with people in Europe.
Greece might end up getting close to Russia - it it feels it isn't getting adequate support from either the US or NATO - but I don't think Israel would. At least without major changes. It has too many commitments and dependencies with the US plus since Russia and Iran are so friendly currently.
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ukron
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Post by ukron on Aug 28, 2020 11:37:02 GMT
Iran and Russia are not allies and have often been at odds, I don't think I see a lasting Moscow-Tehran axis, especially if the Russians are interfering more and more in Syria, to the detriment of Hezbollah and Shiite groups.
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ukron
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Post by ukron on Aug 28, 2020 11:39:36 GMT
Israel could logically approach Russia, if Turkey were to threaten the Israeli EEZ in the Mediterranean, at the same time locking the access to the port of Latakia, which would have the effect of blocking the Russians and the Syrians.
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ukron
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Post by ukron on Aug 28, 2020 11:40:41 GMT
At the same time, I would clearly see in the next 10 or 15 years a serious deterioration in diplomatic relations between France and Brazil on the subject of Guyana.
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archibald
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The PRC was standing on the edge of an abyss. And Mao said "let's make a Great Leap Forward"
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Post by archibald on Aug 28, 2020 11:51:09 GMT
Depends from the fate of Jair Barseholaro... (misspelling done on purpose, and fully assumed)
Geez, if only a meteorit could land on this man... although there might be fecal matter all over the place, wouldn't be easy to clean the crater...
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ukron
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Post by ukron on Oct 16, 2020 13:43:59 GMT
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