2012 Lower US To 1952

That's probably what'd happen in practice, even though I think that them being two different versions of the same country from disparate points in time, they'd still maintain diplomatic relations (and potentially also economic and military ties, especially with the lower US's overabundance of technological goodies and ability to help the downtimers out in Korea). Otherwise, I speculate that the best-case scenario is that the uptimers get Hong Kong-like autonomy, but with leaps and bounds more ability to resist Washington's attempts to bludgeon them into submission.

...Yeah, that’s fair. And it’s also why I termed it the best-case scenario, among other things.

With the South, Southwest and California having left the Union—likely without a shot fired and with mutual, albeit reluctant consent from both halves of the country—I wonder how the 1952 election turns out ITTL? Presumably, both General Eisenhower and Governor Stevenson are still here and running for office, though I’m definitely guessing that how to best approach the uptimers down south will become a front-and-center issue this time around.

As for the 2012 states, I take it that their withdrawal means that, as at least an autonomous region and at most their own sovereign nation, they’d have to draft their own constitution and reorganize their state governments into a unified political system. Exactly how they’d proceed in doing so aside from borrowing heavily from the original American setup (i.e. largely imitating the US Constitution while adding certain modifications to it), I don’t know.

Your predictions concerning the new constitution the newfound 'Lower States of America' would probably draft makes sense, though as one nitpick, states like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico leaned Democratic since the 2008 election (in which they all went for Obama, who doesn't come along for the ride, BTW).

In regards to race relations, my best guess is that even with the Jim Crow South gone, the uptimers will certainly pressure the 'Upper States' into passing civil rights legislation, likely a few years earlier than IOTL. Or else they won't receive the sweet, sweet 2012 goodies or technical help that 2012 has to offer. Plus, whatever spies are sent southwards would probably stick out like sore thumbs, due to the fact that their sensibilities and academic knowledge is sixty years too dated for them to successfully impersonate uptimers, by and large.

I don't know as much about the Mississippi River specifically, but judging by the economic importance that you attribute to it, I assume it'll just become another bargaining chip in the Lower States' favor when it comes to 'conditions' they'll want the Upper States to meet before they receive uptimer aid. And given the sheer economic, military and technological disparities between 1952 and 2012, I think that downtimer attempts to bring them "in line" will backfire in the most spectacular way. Deploying a drone that strikes perilously close to the White House would teach them a lesson they won't soon forget if it ever comes to that, just as one example. Or dispatching largely empty locations with pinpoint precision that uptimer armed forces would have full knowledge of as a symbolic way of basically telling them "don't screw with us and we'll play nice".

The exact approach the Lower States would take to accommodating people who once lived in its its downtimer counterpart also eludes me. Other than, perhaps, screening downtimers seeking to return to make sure that they don't stir up trouble. And probably handing them checks to get those who lost their homes, businesses and other assets in the ISOT back on their feet (even though I can't come up with estimates for how much these relief programs would probably cost, never mind the wave of other legislation that the Lower States would pass to weather this unprecedented situation).

Concerning foreign policy, I was also thinking about Korea and how the Lower States could easily turn the tide of the conflict in NATO's favor (which I'm guessing they'd officially join soon thereafter, but probably after whupping the communists' asses in a blowout victory like never seen before). Though I know less about ICBMs, the Lower States nonetheless seem to have missile sites that may be of use here (though I don't know which munitions they store off the top of my head). Either way, though, I think that some combination of advanced conventional forces and terrifying new wonder-weapons like cruise missiles, drones and stealth bombers--among others--is bound to keep the communist bloc on its toes. Unless, of course, it overreacts and forces the Lower States to take their gloves off for real. Hopefully, the fighting doesn't escalate to quite that level ITTL.

Lastly, I'm guessing that even with the omnifarious disputes that come with an ISOT of this magnitude, intellectual property--and ownership of more tangible holdings, certainly--will prove a real headache for all sides. A likely possibility is that the Lower States exempt themselves from downtimer patents, due to how many of them have expired from the uptimers' perspective and how tech, manufacturing and R&D firms sent along for the ride won't appreciate more hassle than they already have to deal with. I do, however, think that the newly formed Lower States' government could pay off downtimers who've just lost control over their patents as compensation, which would probably amount to a temporary solution while they straighten themselves out for the time being. Again, I don't have exact estimates as to how much this would cost, though hopefully it--along with the cornucopia of other expenses that uptimers would need to pay off somehow--doesn't bankrupt the Lower States when their collective economy has already been forced onto its knees by the ISOT.

As for copyright, however, the fact that the digital technologies that the uptimers have brought with them allow for the quick, easy, even pirated distribution of someone's content across the internet is hard enough for uptimer governments to clamp down on as is, never mind how downtimer governments who only have a theoretical--and at best, experimental--concept of 24/7 online communication like we do would flounder once introduced to the computers, smart devices and World Wide Web that they're used to access. Those implications in particular probably deserve their own paragraph or post, and it's all the more reason why 1952's vanguards of traditional media would probably rail against due to how online distribution undercuts their very business model. I'm unsure what'd be done about trademarks, though--as usual--I feel like both uptimers and downtimers would have to make certain compromises that neither necessarily wants to, especially as it relates to putting aside their values for political expediency's sake.

Once more, you brought up some good points. Similar to what I've said before, I know less about munitions and how they evolved in the years since 1952, though maybe this list of active U.S. Military missiles--which seems to employ both newer and decades-old designs at this point--provides better insight than my previous link probably did. I think that to provide them with a substantial maritime force instead of a handful of docked ships and mariners, maybe those naval assets within, say, the Gulf of Mexico and off the Pacific Coast should come along as well. Unfortunately, I can't find specific references that detail which task forces were where as of early 2012. So I can only guess as to which ships make sense to send back at the moment. And I'd very much prefer not to force the uptimers to build a new navy from scratch, even though as presumably their own country, they'd rebrand and reorganize by absorbing ships, sailors and other assets brought along for the ride into their ranks. The same would go for whatever other 2012 military forces were sent back, I'd think.

I should probably also clarify slightly so that assorted satellites also get sent back, just so that the uptimers retain reliable communications--especially with how digital interaction was becoming increasingly vital to how people live and work during the 2010s (and still is, given the trajectory of current events thus far).

Aside from it probably having less factories and industrial machinery on hand than the uptimer Midwest (though various automobile plants and other such productive hubs have sprung up over the last few decades), I think that the South's massive economic growth within the last few decades would greatly surprise most downtimers, with much the same applying to its political turnaround from a Democratic stronghold into reliable Republican country by 2012. Of course, for all of its gains in the financial sector, high-tech research and corporations headquartered in its region, severed trade links will probably cause a massive recession in the short term, similar to what you've said.

Given the perils of globalization as it applies to this scenario, which would also surprise downtimers who are accustomed to a dominant United States and a devastated Eurasia at this point in time, I'm thinking that--in addition to usual in-crisis practices of rationing and more sparing use of resources on the part of ordinary people (maybe also a revival of victory gardens in which households grow much of their own food or something like that)--Lower States would also pour funds into their manufacturing sector, probably also granting tax incentives to manufacturers that will probably have to wait for the future, due to how cash-strapped uptimer governments would be for the time being. And given how mechanical parts and components from 1952 are likely incompatible with 2012 machinery by and large, that'll wreck its own share of havoc on downtimer markets as well.

In the longer term, however, I suspect that once the downtimers find out about the decline of the once-booming Rust Belt and how jobs and plants going overseas to China of all places was an ongoing problem in the future that the uptimers came from, the US government will surely take steps to prevent international outsourcing and promote products 'Made in America, by Americans'. Perhaps the advice of W. Edward Deming will make a massive comeback ITTL, with official regulatory policy reflecting his ideas is some way or another. As far as further specifics go, I think that given its New Dealer leanings, Washington is more likely to erect trade barriers and more heavily bridle global markets in order to keep its heartland's beat going.

Similarly, I think they'll take a harder line against immigration once they find out about all of the undocumented immigrants living in the Lower States--and how some activists are pleading for amnesty, of all things (a likely summation of their words, not necessarily mine). Off the top of my head, I'm more than willing to bet that Joe McCarthy and other demagogues will blast the uptimers for how "soft" they are on enforcing existing law, likely via a mix of pointing to how undocumented works provide cheap labor and embracing more xenophobic talking points also employed by the particularly nativist elements of today's American right. Granted, they can rely on the Lower States to absorb flow of undocumented immigrants from the southern border on their behalf for the most part, but still. And that's without considering their likely reactions to the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965.

That encapsulates my second major wave of thoughts, anyway. Hopefully, it addressed your points well enough without waffling too much (which I'm naturally prone to, as you know).

First off, stevep , I think that as long as we're bringing back all essential communications equipment and infrastructure from 2012, we might as well throw in GPS and intelligence-gathering satellites. So consider the answer to that question a longer way of saying 'yes', though I think we should draw a line somewhere past that so that this scenario doesn't become a gigantic 'Lower States wank', though economic turmoil and a lack of clear leadership at first will certainly do a number on them whatever way we go with that.

Having considered your point about recent progress achieved in establishing global trade, I suppose that a trade network that sticks mainly to the Western Hemisphere--encompassing fellow, liberal-democratic nations with similar cultures and values that are compatible with American geopolitical objectives, with the other NATO states falling into that camp in particular--would make more sense. That said, I think they'd be far more cautious about opening up markets with China or other such analogues that spring up ITTL, in part because once he learns of what transpired after his death IOTL, Chairman Mao will purge future reformers like Deng Xiaoping and almost certainly keep China closed off to the outside world. For that, among other reasons, I wonder if OTL future presidents like Bill Clinton will receive less praise from Fifties historians, pundits and political analysts who learn of his purported role in abetting outsourcing to China (even if it took place in a future that won't come to pass this time around).

Regarding domestic upheaval, I also agree that while Joe McCarthy's bullish conduct during the OTL hearings concerning the Army seem like they'd discredit him somewhat, I've a feeling that he and like-minded demagogues will shift the goalposts by citing uptimer records of Soviet infiltrators and move onto demonizing the 2012 Lower States as 'godless, hedonistic products of the post-Sixties era' while championing double-downs on Fifties social mores and hostility towards left-wing influences, especially now that they know how the uptimer US was suckered into sending so much manufacturing capacity to China of all places, as previously mentioned.

Although I'm not as knowledgeable about the specifics of union influence at this time, I can see conflict between them and business interests emerging over the immigration debate that's sure to come to Fifties America soon enough. Granted, I'm not sure about how many migrants the Upper States are likely to receive due to how a) the Lower States are positioned to absorb the bulk of them and b) undocumented immigrants are more likely to prefer 2012 life anyway, due to how hostile and xenophobic their northern neighbor seems to be (which probably butterflies Operation Wetback, too). I can also imagine that downtimer blacks and other minorities would flood back to the South in short order, though their social conservatism in areas besides racial justice will need to be dealt with during the inevitable screening process that the Lower States will set up. One unfortunate side effect of this will probably be how unscrupulous uptimer businesses take advantage of their lowered expectations and treat them as cheap labor, however--though I'm sure that even if uptimer state governments more or less turn a blind eye to it (which is unlikely), news reports will generate outrage that pressure them to stop for the most part (or maybe not even start at all, if I'm being optimistic). On the other side of the aisle, I can conceive of the resulting 'minority flight' acting as political pressure for downtimers to stop treating nonwhite workers like dirt, though I'm sure that attempts to curtail this will be met with substantial resistance from the impractical, diehard racists that still pervade American society at this time.

Killing off the Apollo Project also seems reasonable in at least the short term, though I've little doubt that the Upper States will 'ask' for uptimer help in setting up their own space program, both because of the prestige involved and a desire to not remain permanently dependent on the Lower States' aid (which would only serve as another bargaining chip, should the uptimers issue more demands in the future). That said, I do think that the downtimers will take significant interest in the robots and unmanned probes that NASA has since sent to space (i.e. rovers like Curiosity, though that specific example seems to have been lost in the ISOT). Also, what might they make of private space companies like SpaceX, with their ambitions to commercialize human spaceflight and help enable Martian colonization and all? Government agencies being invested in sending men to the Moon is one thing, but the private sector harboring those same ambitions is quite another.

Beyond just its obvious presence in space exploration or military uses, there's also the rise technology's daily importance in twenty-first century life. I'm guessing that average downtimers would recognize modern TVs as way, way better than the boxy, grainy, black-and-white sets that they're used to--with full-color, clear audio and wireless remotes to boot (not to mention the endless range of channels that people have to choose from down south). As mentioned before, computers, smart devices and internet will generate their own strong reactions across the board, both by inspiring pure bafflement at first and being met with visceral condemnation by the moral guardians and vanguards of corporate media. The former would probably rail against them for their 'addictive nature' and 'empowerment of degenerate uptimer media', while the latter would seek to regulate them due to how they undercut their copyright-based business model. Governments would also no doubt take issue with digital technologies as well, for a mix of previously stated reasons and how they promote the proliferation of fake news and dangerous rhetoric (both imagined on their part and very much real). How the US in particular reconciles the Fairness Doctrine with the rise of online media--with its rampant citizen journalism and numerous, ever-changing outlets instead of the small assortment of Fifties firms with a monopoly on news--or reassesses future cases like New York Times Vs. Sullivan so that public figures can sue for defamation seems like they're worth their own post(s) to me. Obviously, the downtimers won't get their way as it applies to the Lower States, but as far as clamping down on their widespread adoption within their own countries, that sounds like something the likes of Mary Whitehouse and whatever media firms that also fear the internet's subversive tendencies would try. Whether they successfully suppress uptimer media or find themselves on the losing side of that battle eventually seems debatable, I think.

Even discounting moralistic hand-wringing, though, there's also the possibility that even usually-disinterested members of the downtimer electorate exhibit reluctance to welcome certain 2012 technologies with open arms, e.g. unionized factory workers' aversion to automation, which they'd see as cold, soulless, inhuman machines threatening to take their jobs away for the sake of maximizing executives' profit. Granted, the reality may be far different (with principles like the Luddite Fallacy probably coming into play here), but as the saying goes, a lie travels around the world in the time that the truth straps on its boots. And given their initial lack of knowledge on the subject, I think that the papers and networks that most Fifties people get their news from are bound to make mistakes in their reporting on matters like this (though that problem is certainly not limited to technology and its implications here). Similar might apply to nuclear power, especially given the catastrophic accidents that wrecked its reputation in the eyes of the Average Joe on the street.

Concerning everyday safety standards--although I don't know as much about them--I'm guessing that the story of the Ford Pinto might drive regulators to up the ante on car requirements early (no pun intended)? Legislation like that, I think, would go down with a whole lot less opposition from the general public than attempts to address smoking. Because while I've little doubt about popular outcry once it's made clear just how much and how long the tobacco industry scammed them, society's widespread nicotine addiction at this time seems way too hard to curb at a pace that uptimers would consider optimal--coming cigarette taxes and all.

Did a troll mess with you post stevep.