Zyobot
Fleet admiral
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Posts: 17,352 
Likes: 7,260
|
Post by Zyobot on Nov 2, 2020 16:57:47 GMT
This one might also be rather contrived, but what about if George McGovern somehow received the Democratic nomination in 1984? Given his radicalism and the fact that his 1972 bid caused him one of the greatest electoral defeats in American history, I'm quite certain that Reagan would've run away with it at least as much as he did IOTL 1984. At that point, I think he'd stand a chance of winning Minnesota in addition to the other 49 states--never mind well over 60% of the popular vote in the process.
|
|
Zyobot
Fleet admiral
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Posts: 17,352
Likes: 7,260
|
Post by Zyobot on Nov 4, 2020 1:21:17 GMT
Having checked back on AH.com, someone suggested giving Jesse Jackson the Democratic nomination in 1984 and making Wilson Goode his running mate. I suppose that with his comparative lack of electoral baggage relative to McGovern, having Jackson (somehow) receive the nod would make more sense. With someone as radical and fiery as Jackson, coupled with how there were still plenty of people who'd have refused to vote for a black presidential candidate during the Eighties, Reagan looks poised to sweep in 1984. That he'd likely win with 535 electoral votes comes as unsurprising to me, but I'm curious about more precise estimates for Reagan's raw vote total and actual popular-vote share (other than well over sixty-percent, of course). Specifics aside, I imagine this destroys Jesse Jackson's prospects for mounting future presidential bids as he finds himself in the company of Alf Landon, Barry Goldwater and George McGovern as among the biggest losers in American electoral history.
|
|
Zyobot
Fleet admiral
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Posts: 17,352
Likes: 7,260
|
Post by Zyobot on Dec 11, 2020 18:01:18 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by american2006 on Dec 14, 2020 17:10:07 GMT
Reagan without Iran-Contra and with a good economy.
|
|
Zyobot
Fleet admiral
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Posts: 17,352
Likes: 7,260
|
Post by Zyobot on Dec 17, 2020 18:37:01 GMT
Reagan without Iran-Contra and with a good economy. The recession thereof lasted until about 1983, I believe. Given that the economy remained in malaise until the election year, I can see less people thinking that Reagan over-promised if the recovery were speedier. At that point, I'm curious as to what Reaganomics-critical Democratic candidates would've said on the campaign trail in response to this. |
|
|
|
Post by 49ersfootball on May 19, 2021 19:36:02 GMT
Reagan would've gotten 63% of the nationwide vote in 1984.
|
|
Zyobot
Fleet admiral
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Posts: 17,352
Likes: 7,260
|
Post by Zyobot on May 19, 2021 21:30:22 GMT
Reagan would've gotten 63% of the nationwide vote in 1984. Under what conditions, and how did you arrive at that 63% figure? I’ve seen it suggested that if Reagan looked less tired during the first debate, he could’ve outdone his OTL blowout. Perhaps even more so if, as I believe I said here before, Jesse Jackson somehow got the Democratic nomination—only to get obliterated in a fifty-state GOP landslide, come the actual election. |
|
|
|
Post by american2006 on May 20, 2021 21:38:23 GMT
Reagan would've gotten 63% of the nationwide vote in 1984. Under what conditions, and how did you arrive at that 63% figure? I’ve seen it suggested that if Reagan looked less tired during the first debate, he could’ve outdone his OTL blowout. Perhaps even more so if, as I believe I said here before, Jesse Jackson somehow got the Democratic nomination—only to get obliterated in a fifty-state GOP landslide, come the actual election. Think DC is on the table? |
|
Zyobot
Fleet admiral
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Posts: 17,352
Likes: 7,260
|
Post by Zyobot on May 20, 2021 21:40:11 GMT
Under what conditions, and how did you arrive at that 63% figure? I’ve seen it suggested that if Reagan looked less tired during the first debate, he could’ve outdone his OTL blowout. Perhaps even more so if, as I believe I said here before, Jesse Jackson somehow got the Democratic nomination—only to get obliterated in a fifty-state GOP landslide, come the actual election. Think DC is on the table? Not particularly, barring something either insane or downright ASB. Minnesota probably is, though, given how Reagan lost it only by a few thousand votes. |
|
|
|
Post by 49ersfootball on May 21, 2021 0:57:04 GMT
Mondale still would've been the Dem nominee for President in 1984 regardless.
|
|
Zyobot
Fleet admiral
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Posts: 17,352
Likes: 7,260
|
Post by Zyobot on May 21, 2021 14:54:53 GMT
Mondale still would've been the Dem nominee for President in 1984 regardless. How, though? You also haven’t clarified where the 63% figure comes from. In which case, it seems like an arbitrarily specific number, though Reagan earning over sixty percent of the popular vote with any of the tweaks previously suggested sounds plausible. |
|
|
|
Post by simon darkshade on Jun 1, 2021 4:59:46 GMT
Reagan in 1984 is the obvious one, only needing minor tweaks to get to the necessary threshold. Looking at the Minnesota margins, it could very much come down to the weather on polling day in that state.
Bush in 1988 is rather more difficult, but if Dukakis made a few more gaffes, there could be a cumulative shift. New York would be a key - shift that into the Republican column and part of the puzzle is solved. If Dukakis did not choose Bentsen as VP, then Bush stands a greater chance of running up the score in Texas. Finally, if we have Dukakis having a couple more foot in mouth episodes, then it is possible to see him losing California and Washington and Oregon shifting columns. The cumulative effect of these would push him over the Johnson threshold.
Eisenhower in 1956 would take a few tweaks across the nation. Not too hard.
1936? As in 1984, a few bits of weather could do the job.
1928 and 1932 are similar in margin, but not in background. Moving 3% in either of these is quite straightforward.
1920? A zephyr of change would do it.
|
|
Zyobot
Fleet admiral
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Posts: 17,352
Likes: 7,260
|
Post by Zyobot on Jul 22, 2021 17:29:39 GMT
Bush in 1988 is rather more difficult, but if Dukakis made a few more gaffes, there could be a cumulative shift. New York would be a key - shift that into the Republican column and part of the puzzle is solved. If Dukakis did not choose Bentsen as VP, then Bush stands a greater chance of running up the score in Texas. Finally, if we have Dukakis having a couple more foot in mouth episodes, then it is possible to see him losing California and Washington and Oregon shifting columns. The cumulative effect of these would push him over the Johnson threshold. I once saw it suggested that somehow making Jesse Jackson the Democratic nominee would give Bush Sr. a way bigger landslide. The person who suggested it wasn't completely sold on it being a larger-than-LBJ blowout, but so long as they were playing to the OP, they had Bush win every state but Hawaii and Iowa (which amounts to 523 electoral votes, a smidge less than Reagan's record-setting 525). What do you think?
I'm not terribly familiar with the 1988 election, but so long as we're discussing whether Bush Sr. can win over 61.1% of the popular vote, I think it'd be fitting for him to have a record-breaking amount of electoral votes to go with it. He may have lost them both by over 10% IOTL, but I'm curious as to whether we could flip either Hawaii and/or Iowa for the GOP ticket? If so, then that's sufficient to give Bush either 527 or 531 electoral votes, both of which surpass Reagan's 1984 record. Or even 535, if we somehow manage to turn them both red. |
|
