Blue Dawn, 1994

"Fun" timeline. Interesting take on chaotic Russia.

13 – The Urals


For the third time in less than three years, there had been fighting in Moscow for the leadership of that nation of which that city is the capital. Gorbachev’s Soviet Union had faced those wishing to take over – and they had failed – while Makashov’s brutal attempt to seize power of the Union of Sovereign States after slaying Ryzhkov had been put down. This latest change of leadership is first regarded in the West as being another event similar to the earlier two. There is no move made to take a side. There is a wait to see who will win out. When it becomes clear that the Union military under General Gromov has retaken Moscow, much quicker than anticipated due to what has been seen before, it was he whom foreign governments prepare themselves to deal with. A cat is quickly thrown among the pigeons though when there comes those declarations of independence from Central Asian republics as well as the emergence of Acting President Primakov out in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk. Primakov is more important than Nazarbayev in terms of how the West is going to respond, but is he more important than Gromov? The clash of wills between the two men is identified though not initially understood. Someone has killed Lebed, foreign governments believe, but who is responsible and who is replacing him?

There, finally, emerges an understanding that the Union is firmly split and the two sides are going to fight. Whom should be recognised as the leader of the Union? Gromov or Primakov? The confusion is in many places. Calls are placed and contact established. From Washington, Kerrey gets in touch with Gromov first. Their phone call doesn’t go well. The American president wants to know what has happened and why there is military leadership in Moscow. He seeks assurances too on many matters of security in particular the Union’s nuclear arsenal. Gromov is in no mood for him. He doesn’t respond well to all of these questions which he regards as demands on him and doubts over his legitimacy. There is no threat to the United States, he says, but America must stay out of an internal Union dispute: he warns Kerrey not to interfere as he deals with traitors within his nation. Giving it back just as good, Kerrey directly questions Gromov’s legitimacy to lead… and is hung upon. Their relationship starts as it will go on: extremely hostile. When talking with Primakov – not an easy contact to set up –, the man who claims that he is the legal and legitimate president of the Union has a far better conversation with Kerrey. He states that Lebed has been assassinated by a military coup (not Gromov directly though) and as a result of that, he has sought to take charge as he is entitled to. Gromov has seized power in Moscow but Primakov has the backing of much of his nation’s military and will reassert order soon enough. Primakov doesn’t want conflict, he told Kerrey, but he is being forced into it. All he wants from the United States is recognition of his leadership.

Kerrey doesn’t commit to Primakov. Governments around the world generally will not outright back either Gromov nor Primakov. Both men hold certain reins of power and taking a side risks being associated with the losing one when the other emerges victorious. Talking and sorting this all out without violence is called for from aboard. The chance of that happening is zero though.

Overseas, the recognition battle which emerges in the following days since the Gromov-Primakov conflict starts sees some elements of madness. Diplomats abroad back different sides with splits within countries occurring among diplomatic compounds at different locations. In London, Prime Minister John Major’s government is drawn into the dispute when there are exchanges of gunfire. Armed police are called in – military units are waiting to swoop but were held off – due to the Ambassador & Embassy siding with Primakov while the GRU people at the Defence Attaché office back Gromov. The latter strike first, trying to take the civil war starting within the Union to here in London! Across the Atlantic, the Ambassador to the United States backs Gromov, the Union’s UN Mission up in New York comes out in support of Primakov while from nationwide consulates (Chicago, San Francisco and others) there are backers of each side. At Kerrey’s direction, the FBI is brought in to stop outbreaks of any violence mirroring what is seen in London and a few other places worldwide. The Union has inherited the UN Security Council seat of the Soviet Union. With the diplomats there backing Primakov, this gives Novosibirsk much needed legitimacy. However, there are governments loath to take sides like this. Actions taken by the UN Mission are suspended leading to many arguments.

The gas is turned off. Those pipelines which supply natural gas to Western Europe run through Gromov-controlled territory but start their journey where Primakov and also Nazarbayev now rule. Their disputes with Moscow mean that there will be nothing going down the pipelines. Other links supply oil to Europe (not as profit-making as the gas though) and from Central Asia, the deliveries are stopped at source. Primakov does control Siberian oil that goes elsewhere though – to Japan and newer markets in East Asia – and he intends to keep that flowing. Westerners are leaving the Union. Non-essential staff including families depart from embassies and out of the country likewise go travellers and businesspeople. There is a civil war on and staying within the Union, either side of the fault lines torn open, even far from where there is direct fighting, is a bad idea. There are defections too. Leaving the Union for citizens is easier than during the Soviet era but still not too easy. There are still border controls. Gromov, Primakov and Nazarbayev (plus his southern minions) shut their borders. A few people do get out while others who would want to go too don’t manage to.


Before this internal conflict began, Primakov had held sway over the Russian Republic’s parliament, the Duma. Some deputies are gone though most of them are still in Moscow including allies of his. Gromov has the military arrest some of them yet is convinced by some parliamentary figures to keep it open. His ‘emergency rule’ – that was what his leadership was being officially called with people deluding themselves that it would only be temporary – is supposed to get legitimacy from a parliament which will approve that. The vote in the Duma doesn’t go the way it is planned to. Gromov’s political supporters are opportunists, scoundrels and the odd xenophobic nutter (Zhirinovsky). They don’t have the numbers they say they have. They can’t win over the majority of figures here who, while not have been Primakov backers, aren’t willing to sit back and let Gromov take over. Lebed was someone they believed in: Gromov just isn’t. Before the final roll call is made, voting is abandoned and the Duma closed by soldiers.

In Union territory west of the Urals, there are military units whose commanders either outright refuse to support Gromov or want to maintain neutrality in this whole matter. Gromov will not accept either option, especially open defiance in support of a traitor. Union military forces fight each other where there is open resistance while those who seek that neutrality are cajoled into picking a side… with the understanding that being on Primakov’s side will mean a fight that will lose and be punished for starting. The Union’s second largest city is Leningrad. The name hasn’t been changed as has been the case in recent years with other cities which had Soviet-era ones. Lebed has kept the Leningrad as Leningrad due to the role it played in fighting the Nazis. While the Leningrad Military District commander (who lead a large force) came on-side with Gromov straight away, mid-ranking officers in the city have sided with the powerful civilian government there. Leningrad is declared an ‘neutral city’. Gromov sends tanks and paratroopers to force them to back down. A fight is seemingly moments away but averted when the locals lose their nerve right before the first shots are fired. Gromov has arrests made when promises made not to do so are broken yet the city has not been fought over due to the deception used in getting it in his pocket.

The Union’s Pacific Fleet tries to evacuate as best it can from Far East naval stations. There is fighting outside the bases and then within them… yet not everywhere. Their commander has sided with Moscow not Novosibirsk. Not all of his officers agree with some supporting Primakov while others declare neutrality: a neutrality which Primakov will allow to continue. The situation is a complete mess. Ships and submarines leave port in a few places. The destinations for some of them, especially the nuclear-powered submarines, including ones armed with ICBMs, will be Union territory on the far side of the world. Long journeys begin. Surface vessels which can sail are ordered to go to the Soviet-era Union naval anchorage in Vietnam or, if not possible, then to Moscow-friendly North Korea. Those heading to the latter are supposed to be safe there with a belief that they will end up soon enough back with the Union once Primakov’s rebellion has been put down. These trips are only for those which can make it to sea with enough fuel, supplies and crew members. Many cannot. The Union Navy as a whole is in a poor state and the Pacific Fleet worse off than others. Primakov’s forces will capture themselves a navy though their prize will be a mainly rust bucket fleet.

Gromov has decided to strike against Primakov first and deal with Central Asia afterwards. It makes sense from his point of view as he regards the rebellion in Siberia & the Far East as a bigger threat. Central Asia will be brought to heel once Primakov is dealt with. The one-enemy-at-a-time approach comes unstruck within days of the civil war starting. Novosibirsk and Almaty form an alliance of convenience. Primakov doesn’t officially recognise independence by the southernmost republics but will not fight them. Nazarbayev will not fight him either. Moreover, for the security of each, they will aid each other. Details will have to be ironed out but they agree to try to make it all work. The whole thing is sure to bring many problems down the line yet for now it changes the whole dynamic of the civil war. Each of them is against Gromov’s rule and now doesn’t have to worry about the other attacking them by themselves or in concert with Moscow. This really matters because the civil war is raging now with the frontlines being on the Urals.


Through the final three weeks of February, the Urals are a battlefield. These are the frontlines of the civil war. A massive fight it is with the two opposing sides fast throwing everything they have at this… quickly diluting themselves in it.

Gromov makes the opening move with air attacks made into Western Siberia and the gathering of an army ready to go through the Urals. Primakov has his own generals, ones whom he listens to. General Reut at their head urge him to authorise a spoiling attack with the hope that it will force Gromov on the backfoot and bring about revolt against Gromov. He does. Over the Urals, heading west, Primakov’s troops go. Siberia has been a dumping ground for military units long ago withdrawn from Eastern Europe where they are beyond treaty restrictions (the Conventional Forces Europe agreements). These are the armies which were meant to drive on the Rhine in an Eighties war in Germany. Gromov wasn’t expecting such a thing: more fool him. The cities of Perm and Ufa are captured, far from the mountain’s slopes. Gromov’s forward forces take a battering and withdraw in chaos. Yet, the offensive tempers out before it can go too far and really inflict a massive defeat. Gromov brings up his own armies, those who have made a mad-dash passage through the western half of the Union from garrisons in Belarus, the Baltics, the Ukraine and across Russia. These are the modernised forces of the Union Army. Perm is recaptured but the territory held by Primakov in the wider Ufa area is stubbornly held. At the front, Reut next commands push made south in response where Gromov’s flank forces are beaten with Orenburg reached.

Ufa is capital of the Republic of Bashkortostan: an autonomous region of Russia. It’s local government switches sides where they now back Novosibirsk over Moscow. The less powerful region administrations who rule over the oblasts in this region – Perm and Orenburg – aren’t as important at those who rule Bashkortostan. Of even greater local power is the Republic of Tatarstan. Their autonomous territory isn’t entered by Primakov’s troops but Gromov has his forces assemble here. Those in power in Kazan are uneasy supporters of the Moscow side but accept the facts on the ground of large numbers of troops rolling in. What is Tatarstan to do – fight Gromov? Not likely, not in a civil war where what is being seen is. Powerbrokers the locals cannot be: only unwilling participants and also victims.

Thousands are killed in these engagements on the battlefield and beyond them where the war spreads to due to the use of aircraft and missiles attacking at distance. Union soldiers are fighting Union soldiers, each sent against those whom their commanders say are in rebellion against the legitimate government. All weapons at their disposal are used. Civilian casualties aren’t caused deliberately but they happen to a significant degree. Villages and towns are blasted by artillery. There is bombing done of cities. Chemical weapons are used when nerve gas is employed: each side blames the other for first use. The chaos of warfare sees some shocking events. Prisoners are shot and war crimes against civilians – Russian civilians! – committed aplenty. Discipline breaks down. There have already been many desertions and reservists refusing to answer the call ahead of battle, but as it goes on, there are men who opt to walk away from this. They won’t fight those who they consider to be just like them: fellow countrymen fighting for a political cause which they don’t understand. Deserters are punished, harshly. Friendly fire occurs as red-on-red incidents are plentiful. The same type of equipment is being used and the uniforms worn are almost identical. In the heat of battle, some officers will stop their units from fighting ‘the enemy’ and go over to their side. Tanks join riflemen on the battlefield. There are artillery strikes, rocket barrages and the use of Scud tactical ballistic missiles. A lot of indiscriminate tactical air power is employed. Demolitions are done of bridges and minefields are laid. Locals are forcibly impressed into uniform to make up the ranks while civilian localities are looted of food, fuel and anything deemed worthy of being useful for the fighting.

That fighting this side of the Urals – not where Gromov wished to see it done – slows down soon enough. Everything runs out up to and including fighting soldiers on-hand. Ammunition and fuel supply problems are a big deal for each side but so too is the failed delivery of everything else that keeps modern armies in the field. The wheels of full on war cannot continue turning. Nineteen days of high-intensity warfare cripples both the forces of Gromov and Primakov here on the frontlines. In some places, men begin digging in while elsewhere they pull back away from each other to better positions. It depends upon the terrain and the local situation with available forces. The fighting slows down but doesn’t stop. Reinforcements are heading in and meanwhile there are the activities of special forces which gain in significance now that they can better operate without everywhere in sight being blasted to bits by each side. The killing will carry on even if the dramatic sweeping moves of armoured warfare seen early on have ground to a halt.


The Union’s civil war is watched from around the world. Images come out to go with the stories. There is confirmation of the use of chemical weapons and the many atrocities. Gasps of horror are heard yet there is also some cheering on from implacable opponents of the country: let them all kill each other, it is said.

They are certainly doing that in the Urals.

And it will get even worse than this.

It will only get worse.
With the soldiers, there will be some from now independent countries too. Desertion will rise and crackdowns will increase.
Gromov has a lot of strength but he is going to face challenges: instability will spread further.
Well... we know what is coming, yes. Tonight's update will look at the lead up to that all while the West fears internal nuke use.
Ah, I'll change that: thank you.

15 – A lone gunman


Since the Union’s civil war started, President Kerrey has spent many long nights worrying about the possibility that that conflict could go nuclear… and drag his country into such a fight. The possibility is there. The three sides – Gromov’s, Primakov’s and Nazarbayev – all have a full range of weaponry to deliver nuclear weapons to each other and worldwide. There are ICBMs, long-range aircraft and missile submarines (though Kazakhstan doesn’t have the latter by virtue of being landlocked) to make continental attacks. Moreover, each of them has short-range systems too. They are fighting each other and using chemical weapons alongside conventional ones. How long will it be before one of them crosses the nuclear line – probably using a tactical one first before escalation – to starve off defeat? Wargames have been run by the Pentagon at the president’s direction and none of them show any good outcome. The worst results in such hypothetical exercises have seen exchanges between warring parties in the Union leading to someone deciding to take down all enemies with them. That would be an attack on the United States either at first or beginning with its global interests. The Kerrey Administration has sought to play down public speculation of such a thing occurring though that hasn’t been helped due to a leak into the public domain of some of those wargames. Naturally, what was published was only the very worst aspects of them and there was no context provided.

When Powell joins the White House as the new National Security Advisor, after returning from Primakov-controlled Union territory, he takes control of the flow of information coming into about the civil war as well as going out. There is less panic with him here. Unconfirmed news coming out of the Union, often causing grave alarm, is only brought to the president if it is really urgent. Instead, things are confirmed first. Powell believes this to be of significant importance due to how tense the situation is. He serves his president and country as best he can. Advice is given to Kerrey that during the previous times when he has spoken with Gromov, the conversations have fast got out of hand: perhaps it is best to slow things down with those when they occur? There are also more streamlined communications with Primakov and Nazarbayev too. Powell is trying to stop a runway situation developing when relations are so difficult, considering that a use of nuclear weapons could happen because of something to do with the United States rather than an internal Union factor. This is all about limiting the risk as best as he can. Come the Independence Day holiday weekend at the beginning of July, Powell had been planning to go to Camp David with Kerrey but he is instead tasked to go to Europe on presidential business: a trip to Britain, France, Germany & Poland all in three days. He is in Europe meeting with American allies when the news arrives about Kerrey. It is said afterwards that Powell broke down in tears when told.


The assassination at the presidential retreat occurs in the early afternoon on a beautiful summer’s day. That Monday, Chuck Robb is down in his native Virginia. The Vice President is a former governor and senator from the Tenth State. He has many links here and is with his extended family relaxing. Secret Service agents are always with him in the eighteen months he has been in office alongside Kerrey. However, when his principle agent enters the living room where Robb is, with two more coming in behind him, Robb has never seen guns drawn from them like this. Neither has he ever observed the looks on their faces like this. To say they were deadly serious would be a serious understatement. Robb is told that they need to leave right now. He doesn’t object but he asks why. This is only moments after Kerrey has been shot and information is only just coming in so what he is told is as best they know: Robb is informed that the president has been shot. For his own safety, he needs to be on the move and taken somewhere secure. Quickly he is in a car and racing towards where an alert helicopter coming down from Quantico picks him up. While that VH-3 is in the air, it’s call-sign changes to ‘Marine One’. Before Robb reaches Washington, he is told that news from Camp David is confirming Kerrey is dead.

There are more than a hundred Secret Service agents in the White House grounds when Robb arrives. Non-essential personnel are forced to leave though, to be honest, there aren’t that many around today. Important people are being called in and not only to they have to deal with the Secret Service when they arrive, but the DC Police are busy outside closing off a wide area. Furthermore, there is also a Marine Corps detachment on close stand-by. Robb is a former US Marine himself and does appreciate their presence nearby. Of course, he has bigger things on his mind though. Sworn in by an associate judge from the Supreme Court (who is in the city for the weekend when so many aren’t), Robb then goes into a series of briefings. There are reports from Camp David about the situation there and then a military status update: Robb is given the latter because there are some initial concerns that this could be part of something bigger. He is soon told that the assassin has been caught and is being securely held in custody. Though it is already a given, Robb makes it clear that he wants to see that killer protected from ‘an accident’ while in custody.

Five hours after the assassination, Robb addresses the American people. The news networks break into regular programming for a special announcement. There is no clue among them that Kerrey has been shot and killed. The news has been ever so tightly held. In another hour that wouldn’t have been the case because it would have leaked from overseas sources, but Robb beats them to the punch. The first that the American people hear of Kerrey’s murder is from out of Robb’s mouth. He is here in the White House informing them of this while assuring them that there has been a smooth assumption of power and the country is safe. The nation is sure to be hurting, Robb says in his address, and will be demanding answers. He promises to give them those answers. The capture of Kerrey’s killer is announced and a promise made that justice will be done. Robb also pledges that with his presidency, he will honour the legacy of Kerrey. Finally, he asks for the American’s people’s prayers for Kerrey and his loved ones.

There is coast-to-coast shock in across America. Gut-wrenching pain hits many though the majority of the people are just shocked. There is anger and there are questions. Who has done this? Why? Who should pay? Memories of the Kennedy assassination back in 1963 flood back thirty-one years later. Rolling news coverage commences. Events will be cancelled and the nation’s celebrations are cut so suddenly short. From overseas, messages of condolence flood in. Some of these – muted ones compared to others – come from countries which the United States doesn’t have the best of relations: Latin America (for example Cuba), the Middle East (Iran) and East Asia (North Korea). In comparison, Saddam celebrates. Iraq’s leader will soon make a statement cheering on Kerrey’s death and calling it divine justice for Operation Desert Python last year. Then there is what comes from Moscow. Gromov sends a short message to Robb over the Hotline stating that what has happened is nothing to do with the Union… nothing more. In public, a spokesman makes comments which (especially when translated) sound very insincere and also accusational. The interpretation is almost that America has done this to themselves with some sort of ‘violent internal regime change’: a self-coup to put Robb in power. As expected, this goes down particularly bad when reported upon in the United States. Primakov and his government express much sympathy and denounce the murder with open offers of assistance made to do anything possible to help America at this time.


Kerrey’s assassin is kept in Secret Service custody. The director of that organisation offers his resignation to Robb and while accepted, it won’t take place with immediate effect: he’ll be replaced by the end of the month. At White House instructions, while the Secret Service keeps hold of Kerrey’s killer, access to him is granted by other parts of the US Intelligence Community. A joint task force of multiple agencies investigate the killing with the Secret Service at the top but not having as many resources as others such as the CIA, DIA, FBI & NSA have. They have a lot of information on this lone gunman. He was identified when detained there at Camp David with the rifle he used picked up too. That – which wasn’t taken from his hands directly – is with the FBI who do a rush but comprehensive job on it to make sure it really is the weapon used. Questions are put to the assassin. He refuses to talk, asking for a lawyer. His English is good and he talks about his right to legal counsel. Has he been watching too many movies? That is not provided yet though. On Justice Department advice, he is denied legal protection for the time being…

…because he has been positively identified as a serving military officer of a foreign power.

The files which the intelligence agencies hold on the assassin are thick. They know all about him. He has been on their radar for many years. Serving with the GRU while part of the Soviet military, he was first identified as an intelligence officer of theirs in the mid-Eighties while assigned to East Germany. Later in Union service, he’s been tracked operating in the occupied Baltics and then in Europe. There is strong evidence to link him to the May ’92 killing of Lithuania’s foreign minister: that diplomat was abroad when his country was conquered and in Poland at the time of his sudden death. Other killings are suspected by this officer with two pinned on him with regards to senior resistance leaders in the Baltic and a further death on Moscow’s streets of a politician serving under Khasbulatov (during his short leadership of the Union) who had troubled the military high command at the Arbat. From overseas, friendly intelligence services provide help too. The British, Germans and Israelis all pass to the Americans much intelligence on this killer. It brings some new information yet also confirms bits already known. All evidence says that he is still in GRU service.

Everything about his time spent in the United States for the three days ahead of him killing Kerrey is investigated. Federal authorities throw everything at tracing his every step. They want to know it all. Nothing is to going to be left uncovered. The most pressing concerns are how he managed to get into Camp David and do what he did but the rest is important too: information from all of that will lead to discovering how he managed to do what he did. All current intelligence says that he is a lone gunman. There is no one else yet implicated. That has to be impossible though. He couldn’t have done this alone. His travel to America and within had to see him helped. His gaining of a suitable weapon, managing to sneak into somewhere meant to be extremely secure and then strike when the president was so exposed was not about luck. Who helped him? Where are they now? Are they going to strike again, going after Robb next?

The assassin refuses to talk as the days go on. There is some discussion at the highest levels of making him talk. It is a dangerous route to go down and might not bring the right answers. From Novosibirsk, the embattled Primakov sends a messenger bearing gifts: a bundle of intelligence on this man and possible links to follow looking for whomever helped him. The Americans take what is on offer though are on their guard. Only the foolish wouldn’t believe that Primakov is doing all that he can to ‘help’ for his own ends. He has to know that everything that the United States knows so far points to this assassin acting on orders that came from Moscow. There is too much proof to ignore on this. All roads lead back to the GRU and that organisation is an arm of Gromov’s regime. Primakov will surely want to help that alone so much caution is employed over what he provides.


Presented to Robb, America’s forty-third president asks why Gromov would have done this.

The terrible relationship that Kerrey and Gromov had is well known and the threats made from Moscow about the Union responding to what has been repeatedly angrily called ‘American interference’ in their civil war are well documented. Still… what could Gromov gain from this all? He gets rid of Kerrey but leaves a traceable assassin to be caught and identified. Powell has returned from Europe. He is still in his job as National Security Adviser. Maybe Robb will want someone new, maybe not. In meetings with Powell and other officials at the highest levels (including top-level Cabinet members), Robb wants a reason. His position is that this assassination is an act of war yet before there can be war, he needs to know why Gromov has done this. Secretary of Defence Sam Nunn and Secretary of State James Blanchard agree with their president on this but the two of them are still – they have been since Robb took the oath of office, when it was already known who this assassin was – pushing for the opening steps to be made to see the country prepare to go to war against the Union. They don’t believe that there should be a wait on this: time is being wasted. To them, the United States cannot afford to wait on this. Should things change, they argue that those readiness moves can be walked back. Finally, still without that motivation known for Gromov to have done this arriving, Robb authorises military preparations to begin: the condition is that recalls can and will be made in the unlikely event everything known so far is proved wrong. Four days have passed but there has been paper planning underway already. Now things are set into motion for Gromov’s act of war to receive the response required.

It takes only another day for Robb to get what he wants.

In comes information, something certain and which is supported by firm evidence. Irrefutable proof arrives of Gromov’s guilt more than just one of his people in custody when caught red handed at the scene of the crime. There is now something solid on his motivation and end goal behind him having Kerrey assassinated too. It is enough for Robb and will be for others as well.

War it is then, soon.

Oh great, now a Marine officer. I wonder what the new intel is?