Blue Dawn, 1994

102 – Lack of co-ordination


As political uproar grips the United States, the Chernomyrdin regime establishes itself in Moscow. The Union’s new leader addresses his people – not reaching everyone though, far from it, due to internal communications issues – and tells them that the reins of power are in his hands. Primakov has been deposed after the treason he was committing was uncovered as he plotted with separatists to break apart the Union: in trying to escape, he’s unfortunately been killed. Stability is promised by Chernomyrdin as well as an end to conflict from within and without as well. He talks of a stable, prosperous future for all where all that was good about the past will be here again yet all that was bad will not repeated. A strong Union is what he promises, one where there is a united nation. Federalism is something that Chernomyrdin rules out. He declares that it was that model of many republics which brought about civil war and foreign invasion. In the Union led by Chernomyrdin, there will be none of that and instead strong, centralised leadership. He urges his countrymen to unite as one so they can put all this behind them.

Chernomyrdin’s call isn’t heeded. The people of the Union will not accept him, especially those in the outlying regions of the nation which he has taken over. Chernomyrdin told the Americans that he would get rid of the troublesome republics such as those in Central Asia but aimed to keep Belarus and the Ukraine. These are regarded by him as ‘Russia’, what he really means when he talks of the Union. Primakov had been promising them a place in a federal Union before he was killed though. Resistance to this was already there from those who wanted full independence and so Primakov was going to have difficulties with them, but Chernomyrdin has just made enemies of both camps: those who want full independence and those who were ready to settle for federalism. Throughout Southern Russia, down in the Caucasus region, as well as within the central parts of Western Russia among the semi-autonomous republics here too, they had been looking forward to a federal arrangement with Primakov’s Union. Chernomyrdin is going to take that away from them too.

People come out on the streets that night. Across cities and large towns throughout these regions, there are protests. The numbers aren’t that large and there are no serious incidents of trouble. In many places where there are impromptu protests against the rule of Chernomyrdin, these are watched by Coalition troops still occupying large parts of the Union. They do not move to interfere: this is domestic issue within the Union. Things change the next day. The protest movement gets better organised. Numbers grow throughout the day and by the night-time, there comes violence. Weapons are in the hands of many of these people during the seemingly random handing out of guns to anyone and everybody during the invasion. Moreover, deserters who fled the armies of Gromov nearly always took their weapons with them too. There is little actual use these weapons against in the majority of places as no one stands in the way of the protest marches against the distant Chernomyrdin regime. That isn’t the case in the capitals of Belarus, the Ukraine and Russia. In Minsk and Kiev, Coalition troops aren’t here in great numbers and so are only distant observers to the shooting incidents between civilians in the street and regime security forces. Those the protesters are fighting are loyal to the republican regimes which have just been screwed over by Chernomyrdin but there is no mood yet at the official level to turn on the new man in the Kremlin. As to the protesters, they see those in power in Minsk and Kiev as being willing to go along with what Chernomyrdin wants and seek to pre-empt that. Those governments already have little public support after seizing power – with Coalition acquiescence – because they were Primakov supporters. Their predecessors might have had American tanks breaking into their cities yet there was the rule of the mob on the streets at the time that saw those earlier leaders deposed. They have been walking a tightrope of trying to keep the people on side but Chernomyrdin has ruined all of that. The mobs once more try to bring down those in charge. Hundreds die in these two cities.

The casualty count is worse in Moscow. The situation here isn’t the same with regards to the recent history of transfer of power being different. Only on the night of August 14th – the second night – do the protesters come out. For them in the Russian capital it isn’t about independence, federal rights or anything like that. They want rid of Chernomyrdin. Neither Primakov nor Gromov before him were liked but Chernomyrdin has suddenly become hated. He has had no immediate connection with the people and they don’t want him in charge. Muscovites have spent some time now under curfew enforced by foreign troops with anger brewing about that. Power has been seized by an unknown figure and they want rid of him. There is no other goal than to see him gone and no real protest leaders or centralised organisation. They come out on the streets and meet gunfire in response. The troops sent here by Marshal Shaposhnikov to see Chernomyrdin take power open fire on them. It is pre-emptive gunfire, unprovoked. Shots do come back towards them though from individuals. Ranks of Airborne Troops and Naval Infantry use machine guns to shoot at men, women and children who are out calling for democracy and then defend themselves.

Joint Task Force Moscow is on the side-lines of the shooting. Orders for General Peay are for his forces to not interfere. His disgust at the coup the day before and then seeing these massacres committed by what he is told are allies lead to him once more making his own protest up the chain of command to General McCaffrey. Peay wants to act against Shaposhnikov’s killers. McCaffrey, himself under orders from on high which he isn’t comfortable with, refuses to allow that. The gunfire continues and soon enough there are Coalition casualties. In what are accidents, yet shocking carelessness from the Union side, soldiers under the command of JTF Moscow are caught in crossfire. Two different elements of the 82nd Airborne Division are shot at in different areas of Moscow. The few British troops inside the city, men with the Gloucestershire Regiment, are also taken under fire. Lives are lost and injuries sustained. Return fire is issued due to standing orders that they can defend themselves if attacked. At one point during the night, faced with the news about his men being engaged by what are enemies in all but name, Peay readies the US XVIII Airborne Corps to take control of the city and engage those Union paratroopers and marines in a full-scale fight. Union forces are outnumbered and out-gunned as well as being cut off from all external support. McCaffrey relieves Peay of his command – turning JTF Moscow over to the XVIII Corps commander (Lt.-Gen. Hugh Shelton) – for overstepping the boundaries of his mission: there is a bigger picture at stake. This stepping back from the abyss by the Coalition side leads to the Union forces not having to worry about the Americans and to focus on deliberate killing of more protesters, many of those shot in the back or chased down when running away from the protest gatherings.

Close to fifteen hundred will be dead by morning. The news of what has gone on in Moscow overnight reaches Washington.


Since President Robb’s presidential address the other day went down about as well as Chernomyrdin’s has, the tsunami of opposition in America obviously isn’t the same as it is in the Union with protests and massacres taking place. However, Americans are just as angry. The supposed dual role that Gromov and Primakov played in the Kerrey assassination is recognised for the lie that it is. The whole war fought inside the Union – which has killed so many Americans – is one big lie one which the Robb Administration will not admit to. Congressional figures are already making moves to see that Gromov will not leave US custody to be handed over to the Chernomyrdin regime. There are other political moves to launch inquires and begin subpoenaing witnesses. Delays are being caused by leading figures wanting to take charge of that and arguing with others how this will be done, but the momentum is there to get to the bottom of this all. Newspapers and television news are full of people already talking. Off-the-record comments are coming aplenty yet there is a willingness from a surprising number of others to take openly without fear of what the White House will do in response. Graham has by now officially removed himself from consideration for the appointment of the vice presidency… all while certain politicians are calling for Robb’s impeachment and thus removal.

Coalition partners are causing Robb problems too. A lack of a coordination of what they are saying with regards to the exact circumstances of this Gromov-Primakov conspiracy to kill Kerrey between the White House and Chernomyrdin’s Kremlin means that, in the face of probing questions, falsehoods are clearly exposed. The Kremlin has bigger problems and then there is Chernomyrdin himself. A man not known for speaking accurately and with clarity, he is the wrong person to sell such a lie. He’s focused on the protesters in the streets but that is also something that the West now looks at too, especially once they are shot down with the (incorrect) narrative being that they were all unarmed and (correct) only seeking freedom. Relying on the British is a mistake for Robb. The British Government has been a firm ally for a long time and Prime Minister Major took his country into the war against Gromov’s Union with what many people saw as a little too much gusto. Maintaining the lie about what really happened back at the beginning of July is in Major’s interests too. It isn’t something that the Labour opposition in the UK see as something they should help cover up. Tony Blair only took over Britain’s biggest opposition party ten days before Operation Flaming Phoenix began and with his position, information has shared with him on Privy Council terms: this is how things are done in Britain. The truth has been passed onto his top team and one of them leaks it to the British media (who dither over publishing it) as well as enquiring American reporters (who have no such hesitation). This is all about hurting Major’s Conservatives: the Robb Administration is just collateral damage. In Poland, Lech Wałęsa maintains his long-running intransigence on this whole matter. He doesn’t believe that Gromov is innocent of the Kerrey assassination and word coming out of Warsaw to those who ask is that the Primakov thing is all a Gromov deception. No thanks are sent to Wałęsa for this: he’s only added to the mess. Prime Minister Jean Chrétien practically goes into hiding and his official spokesman has rings run around him by Canadian reporters emboldened with the knowledge that this is a scandal unlike no other beforehand. From Norway, there comes news that the Norwegians were told the Gromov-Primakov story, didn’t believe it and started backing out of the Coalition several days ago with the belief that Robb had been taken for a fool by the wholly guilty Primakov… someone whom Norwegian government officials say in off-the-record remarks that Robb that was keen to see Chernomyrdin kill to silence him out of pure vengeance.

Still Robb isn’t seen. He’s in ongoing meetings with his advisers. This is only fuel for the fire. Gingrich makes a big show out of Robb ‘hiding in the White House’ but he isn’t the only one. The violence in Moscow, the news of the firing of the on-the-ground commander there (played up in the US media for more than it is) and revelations from overseas allied governments don’t bring him out. He can’t remain in hiding forever though.

103 – Downfall


President Robb addresses the nation on the evening of August 15th. He announces his intention to resign from the office to which he ascended six weeks beforehand.

Talking to the American people, and the watching world too, in a momentous speech that will long be remembered, Robb says that mistakes have been made with regard to the war launched against the Gromov-led Union of Sovereign States and in the immediate aftermath of victory on the battlefield. Those were borne out of the best of intentions though where his administration sought to limit further loss of life and also make sure that nuclear conflict didn’t break out. Still, he concedes, the errors were grave. He takes full responsibility for all that happened. Robb apologises for what has happened: the buck stops here, he adds.

The president says that, after consultations with Congressional figures, he will leave the Office of the Presidency once Congress confirms a new vice president and that nominee takes the oath of office. He only intends to stay where he is until that moment so that the country can have stability with a right and proper Constitutional transfer of power. It will be a choice of Congress as to who will replace him. Robb says that he will not interfere in that process yet he does urge Congress to move quickly on the matter.

Criticising the recent massacres inside the Union, Robb states that these actions by the Chernomyrdin regime against its own people cannot be excused. Yet, they were unforeseen consequences of his mistakes. The lives lost in this war, all of those from American ones to Coalition ones to Union ones, are deaths that he is ultimately responsible for. He urges Americans to remember President Kerrey and all that he achieved and focus in the future of Kerrey’s legacy. Once more, as he ends his address, Robb apologises and in conclusion he also asks for forgiveness for all that has happened during his presidency.


While he is still physically in the White House, Robb’s presidency is over. ‘A dead man walking’ is what Robb has become. The United States needs a new president to replace him.

With Graham out of the picture, there is rapidly momentum behind Al Gore. Kerrey’s (and thus Robb’s) Treasury Secretary, Gore was floated as a vice presidential candidate for first Kerrey and then later Robb too. While in the Cabinet, Gore is seen as untainted by the scandal-hit Robb Administration… unlike other figures such as Blanchard and Nunn who look certain to leave the State Department & the Pentagon. Democratic senators and representatives quickly come out in support of him. Gore being named as vice president, then immediately taking the presidency upon Robb’s promise to resign upon that occurring, upsets some though. There are calls for Robb to go straight away and Gore has his opponents. Many Republicans come out in opposition at all of this too yet they aren’t enough in number to matter. Figures such as Gingrich may want to impeach Robb and draw things out longer yet others in his party, especially in the Senate, aren’t in such a mood to do so. Senior Republicans look at Gore and don’t see someone who can win in 1996 when he’ll be up for election. They are taking a risk with that because he will have the benefit of incumbency yet they think that they can take the White House in two year’s time away from the Democrats. Republicans are willing to work with Democrats on this and move on for all of this mess.

Summer recess for lawmakers should have begun weeks ago. It has been delayed from an expected late July shutdown for several weeks now due to the now-abandoned hearings on Graham’s suitability for the vice presidency. During August, Congress is usually empty of senators and representatives but they are in Washington throughout the month… suffering in the humidity of the nation’s capital like everyone else. With agreements reached to make things speedy (and so they can all go on vacation), there is a lot done very quickly. It only takes two weeks to confirm Gore as vice president.

Later that evening, August 31st 1994, Robb resigns and Gore takes his second oath of office that day. Albert Arnold Gore Jnr. becomes the forty-fourth president of the United States. History will not be kind to Charles Spittal Robb and his presidency will be (unfairly in the opinion of many, especially in later years) compared to those of James Buchanan and Andrew Johnson.


Across on the other side of the North Atlantic, the Major Government in Britain is brought down in September. The fallout from Downing Street being exposed as acting in concert with the Robb White House to cover up the truth behind the Kerrey assassination has been played out for several weeks through the nation’s newspapers. There have been government resignations and allegations of further attempts to suppress the truth. There is no apology from Downing Street for what was done in colluding with Robb to suppress the truth and this, more than anything, will be Major’s downfall.

Major’s thin majority should keep him in power when Blair’s opposition Labour calls for a motion of no confidence but following a string of unexpected Conservative abstentions, the Commons declares by a majority of two votes that they have no confidence in his leadership. Labour expects a general election and – despite not being ready for one – are going to fight that. The Conservatives have other ideas. That Commons vote doesn’t necessarily mean there has to be an election: someone has to attain the majority of support of the Commons to form a new government. Major is formally challenged for the leadership and it is a fight which he, stubbornly, goes into after resigning as party leader yet not prime minister. Black Wednesday, Maastricht and Sleaze are all in the background during the contest among Conservative MPs where he faces more challengers than he thought he might do. Major makes it to the final ballot but losses out to a surprisingly strong challenger: Peter Lilley.

Lilley ‘kisses hands’ and assumes the premiership. Labour and other opposition parties are in uproar, calling again and again for a general election. Lilley is able to command the support of the Commons though… only just. What a ride his premiership will be for the next couple of years!

Canada and Norway will likewise see new governments emerge yet throughout Eastern Europe, the four nations of the Visegrád Group retain their leaders. The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia do not see presidents and prime ministers brought crashing down by scandal. There is still a hostile neighbour on their borders and the lies told were those of others. The survival of these leaders will lead to greater integration especially when Western Europe shows no sign of real friendship… or at least the kind that this bloc led by Wałęsa wants: NATO troops in their countries to defend them. That will not occur.


Chernomyrdin holds onto power, succeeding where Robb and Major don’t. With the support of the military and a rapidly fading protest movement – those who refuse to go home in fright are shot down –, he retains the leadership of his nation.

The Union is a union in all but name. It is instead a Greater Russia where Belarus, the Ukraine, the Russian Caucasus republics and the other small ones inside Russia are held under Moscow’s direct rule with force of arms. Coalition troops leave as per the general agreements struck under that August deal agreed at the soon abandoned Camp Raven. There are clashes with former republics of both the Soviet Union and the Union of Sovereign States but full-scale warfare, feared by many at various times, doesn’t erupt. The disputes are over ethnic Russians now on foreign soil and threats over military deployments along borders aplenty: the Union sets itself on a course to have permanent hostile relations with its neighbours. The Baltics, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Central Asian nations retain their independence. Inside Kaliningrad, that former Russian region becomes an independent nation and one, like Lithuania, closely tied to Poland… a nuclear-armed Poland at that.

Calls from Moscow are for Gromov to be handed over but he is held by the Americans. Relations between Chernomyrdin and Gore are cold yet never truly terrible. Chernomyrdin wants to see the United States withdraw from the Union and this is done with the pull-out completed before the middle of October. Even when Gore announces that many of those who troops who left the Union will stay in the Baltics as a permanent presence to protect those countries, Chernomyrdin does nothing more than blow hot air. Britain will do the same too as the Baltics become an armed camp full of those here to defend them against another feared Union takeover. Their presence there is actually beneficial to Chernomyrdin: he uses the threat of another invasion in a domestic sense to deflect criticism of his regime’s actions. Blaming foreigners and traitors for all of the Union’s ills are what will – alongside the willingness to use force domestically – cement his rule.

That rule is over a country devastated by war and civil strife where recovery will be a very long time coming. Despite everything, all the political chaos and a resulting sea-change in geo-politics in many ways, it can be said that when looking at the Union in the aftermath of what popular culture will later call ‘Russia’s Blue Dawn’, America certainly did get its vengeance for the murder of its president. There is only one superpower left in the aftermath and it certainly isn’t the land over which Chernomyrdin rules.


The End

There is still all that oil and gas. Targeted American air attacks knocked out the pipelines - and pumping stations etc - so there will be no deliveries to Europe without massive investment. Maybe China could pay for it all to go to them: nearer and possibly cheaper? I agree that Russia will eventually grow, how so it the difficult bit.
Certainly, those southern regions should go. They are just trouble for Russia, always have been. Stubborn pride has kept them though.
Central Asia was lost early in the civil war and my thinking was that maybe at some point Russia does go about retaking it all, but beyond the scope of the end of this story: I ran it up to the end of 1994. I would think many Russians would have left Kazakhstan especially but, you make a good point. It is something I should have put more thought into with that.