James G
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Post by James G on Jan 7, 2020 12:28:49 GMT
In January 1940, a German aircraft crashed in Belgium. A staff officer aboard carried documents giving away the whole German war plans for an invasion of the West.
Let us say it doesn't happen.
We now have a winter offensive in the traditional sense - rather than through the Ardennes - across Belgium towards France.
How does this *disaster* go?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 7, 2020 14:14:58 GMT
In January 1940, a German aircraft crashed in Belgium. A staff officer aboard carried documents giving away the whole German war plans for an invasion of the West. Let us say it doesn't happen. We now have a winter offensive in the traditional sense - rather than through the Ardennes - across Belgium towards France. How does this *disaster* go? France still will loose. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 7, 2020 15:40:08 GMT
In January 1940, a German aircraft crashed in Belgium. A staff officer aboard carried documents giving away the whole German war plans for an invasion of the West. Let us say it doesn't happen. We now have a winter offensive in the traditional sense - rather than through the Ardennes - across Belgium towards France. How does this *disaster* go? France still will loose.
I don't know. The winter weather will make it more difficult for the attacker, including impeding a lot of Luftwaffe activity. Also the attack at this time is IIRC the expected and initially planned one, I.e. basically a repeat of 1914, albeit I think including the Netherlands. No sickle thrust through the Ardennes and the main German thrust runs head on into the most powerful allied forces, rather than cutting behind them. The Germans will still have a big advantage in terms of their better preparation for mobile war and air support but its going to be a lot bloodier for them and they might end up being stalled somewhere in Belgium. Which drastically alters the rest of world history.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 7, 2020 15:43:17 GMT
I don't know. The winter weather will make it more difficult for the attacker, including impeding a lot of Luftwaffe activity. Also the attack at this time is IIRC the expected and initially planned one, I.e. basically a repeat of 1914, albeit I think including the Netherlands. No sickle thrust through the Ardennes and the main German thrust runs head on into the most powerful allied forces, rather than cutting behind them. The Germans will still have a big advantage in terms of their better preparation for mobile war and air support but its going to be a lot bloodier for them and they might end up being stalled somewhere in Belgium. Which drastically alters the rest of world history.
The winter might help the British and French, but they still will suffer heavenly. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 7, 2020 16:02:59 GMT
I don't know. The winter weather will make it more difficult for the attacker, including impeding a lot of Luftwaffe activity. Also the attack at this time is IIRC the expected and initially planned one, I.e. basically a repeat of 1914, albeit I think including the Netherlands. No sickle thrust through the Ardennes and the main German thrust runs head on into the most powerful allied forces, rather than cutting behind them. The Germans will still have a big advantage in terms of their better preparation for mobile war and air support but its going to be a lot bloodier for them and they might end up being stalled somewhere in Belgium. Which drastically alters the rest of world history.
The winter might help the British and French, but they still will suffer heavenly.
True. Its going to be bad for all sides.
Not sure how accurate it was but I remember seeing in a games club several decades back a few people playing what was described as one of the most complex [board] games in existence then. It was based on the 1940 German offensive but with the allies knowing more about what's going on/the Germans not doing the thrust through the Ardennes to Sedan and was supposed to be a very tight game. There was a variant know as the "Idiot's Game" where the allies are committed to their OTL deployment. Only visited the club once so don't know any more about it.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 7, 2020 16:14:53 GMT
The winter might help the British and French, but they still will suffer heavenly. True. Its going to be bad for all sides. Not sure how accurate it was but I remember seeing in a games club several decades back a few people playing what was described as one of the most complex [board] games in existence then. It was based on the 1940 German offensive but with the allies knowing more about what's going on/the Germans not doing the thrust through the Ardennes to Sedan and was supposed to be a very tight game. There was a variant know as the "Idiot's Game" where the allies are committed to their OTL deployment. Only visited the club once so don't know any more about it.
Doubt there is much change in the BEF and French Orbat ore command structure than there was in May 1940, the only thing i can see might help the Allies is the winter, depending on how strong it was in January 1940. looking at a site i can see, the Winter of 1940 was cold:
The winter of 1939-40 was the coldest for 45 years with a CET of 1.5 and contained one of the coldest months on record.
The winter started off mild, a carry over from the very mild November, CET 8.7 (+2.9) but it became cooler during first fortnight of December. First half December: 4.7
The real cold spell came during the latter half of December 1939 when an anticyclone became established and this brought frosts and fog at night.
January 1940 was a severe wintry month with frequent frosts and heavy snowfalls. The CET for the month was -1.4C, the first sub zero CET month of the 20th Century and the coldest month since February 1895.
After an initial cold start to January, it became milder around the 6th as a southerly flow covered the UK
By the 10th, an anticyclone from Europe extended across the UK and it became colder again with extensive frosts. The first snowfalls came on a northerly as a low pressure pushed into Scandinavia and pressure built over Greenland. The 16th was a particularly cold day in a biting ENE wind and the following few days were some of the coldest of the winter.
On the night of the 23rd, a minimum of -23.3C was recorded at Rhaydaer(Powys) a record low for that date. Other lows include -20C at Canterbury, Welshpool, Hereford and Newport in Shropshire.
The Thames was frozen for 8 miles between Teddington and Sunbury and ice covered stretches of the Mersey, Humber and Severn.
The sea froze at Bognor Regis and Folkestone and Southampton harbours were iced over. The Grand Union Canal was completely frozen over between Birmingham and London. Central London was below freezing for a week and there was skating on the Serpentine on 6" ice.
However January 1940 will always be remembered for the snowstorm and icestorm that struck the UK.Also check this out: Weatherwatch: 1940 Ice Storm added to misery of warTwo sentries on patrol in the snow at an RAF airfield in France, 30 January 1940. Gladiator aircraft can be seen in the background. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 7, 2020 16:29:16 GMT
True. Its going to be bad for all sides. Not sure how accurate it was but I remember seeing in a games club several decades back a few people playing what was described as one of the most complex [board] games in existence then. It was based on the 1940 German offensive but with the allies knowing more about what's going on/the Germans not doing the thrust through the Ardennes to Sedan and was supposed to be a very tight game. There was a variant know as the "Idiot's Game" where the allies are committed to their OTL deployment. Only visited the club once so don't know any more about it.
Doubt there is much change in the BEF and French Orbat ore command structure than there was in May 1940, the only thing i can see might help the Allies is the winter, depending on how strong it was in January 1940. looking at a site i can see, the Winter of 1940 was cold:
The winter of 1939-40 was the coldest for 45 years with a CET of 1.5 and contained one of the coldest months on record.
The winter started off mild, a carry over from the very mild November, CET 8.7 (+2.9) but it became cooler during first fortnight of December. First half December: 4.7
The real cold spell came during the latter half of December 1939 when an anticyclone became established and this brought frosts and fog at night.
January 1940 was a severe wintry month with frequent frosts and heavy snowfalls. The CET for the month was -1.4C, the first sub zero CET month of the 20th Century and the coldest month since February 1895.
After an initial cold start to January, it became milder around the 6th as a southerly flow covered the UK
By the 10th, an anticyclone from Europe extended across the UK and it became colder again with extensive frosts. The first snowfalls came on a northerly as a low pressure pushed into Scandinavia and pressure built over Greenland. The 16th was a particularly cold day in a biting ENE wind and the following few days were some of the coldest of the winter.
On the night of the 23rd, a minimum of -23.3C was recorded at Rhaydaer(Powys) a record low for that date. Other lows include -20C at Canterbury, Welshpool, Hereford and Newport in Shropshire.
The Thames was frozen for 8 miles between Teddington and Sunbury and ice covered stretches of the Mersey, Humber and Severn.
The sea froze at Bognor Regis and Folkestone and Southampton harbours were iced over. The Grand Union Canal was completely frozen over between Birmingham and London. Central London was below freezing for a week and there was skating on the Serpentine on 6" ice.
However January 1940 will always be remembered for the snowstorm and icestorm that struck the UK.Also check this out: Weatherwatch: 1940 Ice Storm added to misery of warTwo sentries on patrol in the snow at an RAF airfield in France, 30 January 1940. Gladiator aircraft can be seen in the background.
The weather will definitely be a factor. Another that is probably worth mentioning was that while the defeat of Poland was quick it was definitely not bloodless. In some areas German losses were significant, in terms of equipment, if only due to breakdowns and other such issues. Also since its a mass army organised at pretty short notice there were a lot of points raised about how it was handled. As such a January attack gives less time both to replace losses and to implement lessons learnt.
Another possible factor is that according to some sources the period of the Phony War and its inaction weakened the moral of some of the French forces especially. Although correspondingly it did give time for Britain to deploy more forces itself.
If the attack was to get bogged down then probably your going to butterfly the invasions of Denmark and Norway, at least for a while. A more serious problem would be that the defacto Nazi- Soviet alliance would continue, at least in economic terms.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 7, 2020 16:31:23 GMT
Doubt there is much change in the BEF and French Orbat ore command structure than there was in May 1940, the only thing i can see might help the Allies is the winter, depending on how strong it was in January 1940. looking at a site i can see, the Winter of 1940 was cold:
The winter of 1939-40 was the coldest for 45 years with a CET of 1.5 and contained one of the coldest months on record.
The winter started off mild, a carry over from the very mild November, CET 8.7 (+2.9) but it became cooler during first fortnight of December. First half December: 4.7
The real cold spell came during the latter half of December 1939 when an anticyclone became established and this brought frosts and fog at night.
January 1940 was a severe wintry month with frequent frosts and heavy snowfalls. The CET for the month was -1.4C, the first sub zero CET month of the 20th Century and the coldest month since February 1895.
After an initial cold start to January, it became milder around the 6th as a southerly flow covered the UK
By the 10th, an anticyclone from Europe extended across the UK and it became colder again with extensive frosts. The first snowfalls came on a northerly as a low pressure pushed into Scandinavia and pressure built over Greenland. The 16th was a particularly cold day in a biting ENE wind and the following few days were some of the coldest of the winter.
On the night of the 23rd, a minimum of -23.3C was recorded at Rhaydaer(Powys) a record low for that date. Other lows include -20C at Canterbury, Welshpool, Hereford and Newport in Shropshire.
The Thames was frozen for 8 miles between Teddington and Sunbury and ice covered stretches of the Mersey, Humber and Severn.
The sea froze at Bognor Regis and Folkestone and Southampton harbours were iced over. The Grand Union Canal was completely frozen over between Birmingham and London. Central London was below freezing for a week and there was skating on the Serpentine on 6" ice.
However January 1940 will always be remembered for the snowstorm and icestorm that struck the UK.Also check this out: Weatherwatch: 1940 Ice Storm added to misery of warTwo sentries on patrol in the snow at an RAF airfield in France, 30 January 1940. Gladiator aircraft can be seen in the background. The weather will definitely be a factor. Another that is probably worth mentioning was that while the defeat of Poland was quick it was definitely not bloodless. In some areas German losses were significant, in terms of equipment, if only due to breakdowns and other such issues. Also since its a mass army organised at pretty short notice there were a lot of points raised about how it was handled. As such a January attack gives less time both to replace losses and to implement lessons learnt. Another possible factor is that according to some sources the period of the Phony War and its inaction weakened the moral of some of the French forces especially. Although correspondingly it did give time for Britain to deploy more forces itself. If the attack was to get bogged down then probably your going to butterfly the invasions of Denmark and Norway, at least for a while. A more serious problem would be that the defacto Nazi- Soviet alliance would continue, at least in economic terms.
This might also be interesting to read: Four-month war brewed arctic winterDo you agree with me stevep, the Winter is the greatest ally the Allies have if the Germans launch their invasion in January 1940. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Jan 7, 2020 20:30:17 GMT
I was reading more about the aborted plan. The Germans were going into the Netherlands and Luxembourg too. German paras were going to land at Namur on the Meuse and the panzers were going to Flanders. It was set for late Jan but Hitler was hesitant and it had already been called off many times. It is said that this incident was just an excuse. Here is some info on it all: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mechelen_incident Years ago, before I read any of the What If books, before I knew what Alternate History was, I read about this incident in a WW2 book. It was something that interested me and probably brought me into alternate history. I think it is a great POD for a story too. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 8, 2020 15:46:05 GMT
The weather will definitely be a factor. Another that is probably worth mentioning was that while the defeat of Poland was quick it was definitely not bloodless. In some areas German losses were significant, in terms of equipment, if only due to breakdowns and other such issues. Also since its a mass army organised at pretty short notice there were a lot of points raised about how it was handled. As such a January attack gives less time both to replace losses and to implement lessons learnt. Another possible factor is that according to some sources the period of the Phony War and its inaction weakened the moral of some of the French forces especially. Although correspondingly it did give time for Britain to deploy more forces itself. If the attack was to get bogged down then probably your going to butterfly the invasions of Denmark and Norway, at least for a while. A more serious problem would be that the defacto Nazi- Soviet alliance would continue, at least in economic terms.
This might also be interesting to read: Four-month war brewed arctic winterDo you agree with me stevep , the Winter is the greatest ally the Allies have if the Germans launch their invasion in January 1940.
Winter, especially one as bitter as that is a big issue for both sides but especially the attacker. Both because of the need for air support and for speed on the ground as well as the effects on logistics.
The link you gave tells us how bitter that winter was but doesn't give any actual connection to the start of the war. Instead simply arguing by assertion.  It may be that something about the war had an impact but no actual evidence that it caused the very bitter winter as opposed to that being something that would have happened anyway. Also if there were some factor(s) from the war that caused/influenced the weather you would have expected that as the war continued and grew much larger in size, both in area covered and the number of men, ships, a/c involved wouldn't such a connection suggest that later winters would be even worse? - Of course interaction of the climate with other events is far more complex but the article doesn't even say that because of the war there was more/less of X, Y, Z etc that caused the cold weather.
Steve
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 8, 2020 15:49:14 GMT
This might also be interesting to read: Four-month war brewed arctic winterDo you agree with me stevep , the Winter is the greatest ally the Allies have if the Germans launch their invasion in January 1940. Winter, especially one as bitter as that is a big issue for both sides but especially the attacker. Both because of the need for air support and for speed on the ground as well as the effects on logistics. The link you gave tells us how bitter that winter was but doesn't give any actual connection to the start of the war. Instead simply arguing by assertion. It may be that something about the war had an impact but no actual evidence that it caused the very bitter winter as opposed to that being something that would have happened anyway. Also if there were some factor(s) from the war that caused/influenced the weather you would have expected that as the war continued and grew much larger in size, both in area covered and the number of men, ships, a/c involved wouldn't such a connection suggest that later winters would be even worse? - Of course interaction of the climate with other events is far more complex but the article doesn't even say that because of the war there was more/less of X, Y, Z etc that caused the cold weather. Steve
All this talking about Winter we forget one thing, no German invasion of Denmark and Norway i guess. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 9, 2020 18:52:53 GMT
Winter, especially one as bitter as that is a big issue for both sides but especially the attacker. Both because of the need for air support and for speed on the ground as well as the effects on logistics. The link you gave tells us how bitter that winter was but doesn't give any actual connection to the start of the war. Instead simply arguing by assertion. It may be that something about the war had an impact but no actual evidence that it caused the very bitter winter as opposed to that being something that would have happened anyway. Also if there were some factor(s) from the war that caused/influenced the weather you would have expected that as the war continued and grew much larger in size, both in area covered and the number of men, ships, a/c involved wouldn't such a connection suggest that later winters would be even worse? - Of course interaction of the climate with other events is far more complex but the article doesn't even say that because of the war there was more/less of X, Y, Z etc that caused the cold weather. Steve
All this talking about Winter we forget one thing, no German invasion of Denmark and Norway i guess.
I did mention that briefly and if the Germans are stopped then its unlikely that Norway is invaded, although Denmark might still be to ensure the closing of the Baltic entrances and because it is basically impossibly to defend. If the Germans still win in France it might still happen although again Norway is less likely.
Steve
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 9, 2020 19:03:50 GMT
All this talking about Winter we forget one thing, no German invasion of Denmark and Norway i guess. I did mention that briefly and if the Germans are stopped then its unlikely that Norway is invaded, although Denmark might still be to ensure the closing of the Baltic entrances and because it is basically impossibly to defend. If the Germans still win in France it might still happen although again Norway is less likely. Steve
One thing i find interesting, reading the Wikipedia article about the Mechelen incident, is this: Hitler was already hesitant about the original plan from its very beginning. The postponement was one of many and even on this occasion more to be attributed to the weather conditions than to the disclosure of the content of the documents. As the plan was rather traditional and predictable. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 9, 2020 19:06:18 GMT
I did mention that briefly and if the Germans are stopped then its unlikely that Norway is invaded, although Denmark might still be to ensure the closing of the Baltic entrances and because it is basically impossibly to defend. If the Germans still win in France it might still happen although again Norway is less likely. Steve
One thing i find interesting, reading the Wikipedia article about the Mechelen incident, is this: Hitler was already hesitant about the original plan from its very beginning. The postponement was one of many and even on this occasion more to be attributed to the weather conditions than to the disclosure of the content of the documents. As the plan was rather traditional and predictable.
That is true. It might have been cancelled without the incident as Hitler didn't like the conservative nature of the plan and the generals didn't want an attack in winter.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 9, 2020 19:07:44 GMT
One thing i find interesting, reading the Wikipedia article about the Mechelen incident, is this: Hitler was already hesitant about the original plan from its very beginning. The postponement was one of many and even on this occasion more to be attributed to the weather conditions than to the disclosure of the content of the documents. As the plan was rather traditional and predictable. That is true. It might have been cancelled without the incident as Hitler didn't like the conservative nature of the plan and the generals didn't want an attack in winter.
So Hitler could postpone it even if the Mechelen air crash had not occur at all, would not be the first time i guess. |
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It may be that something about the war had an impact but no actual evidence that it caused the very bitter winter as opposed to that being something that would have happened anyway. Also if there were some factor(s) from the war that caused/influenced the weather you would have expected that as the war continued and grew much larger in size, both in area covered and the number of men, ships, a/c involved wouldn't such a connection suggest that later winters would be even worse? - Of course interaction of the climate with other events is far more complex but the article doesn't even say that because of the war there was more/less of X, Y, Z etc that caused the cold weather.