stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 29, 2019 11:02:39 GMT
According to Wiki that large Italian population in Eritrea was ~100,000, which isn't exactly massive. Depending on the relationship but a shared suffering under Italian fascism could well mean that when Ethiopia becomes independent Eritrea comes with in. A lot would depend on how both the west and the Soviets deal with the rump fascists states after the defeat of Nazi Germany.
If Italy stays totally neutral, which is unlikely, then Britain is boosted considerably and Germany a bit in the short term but very unlikely to make much of a difference in the war with the Soviets. [We're had this debate before so no news there.  ] It could be that Germany lasts that little longer so the 1st nukes are used against it and borders might vary a bit but not greatly.
If Italy joins the allies in the last days of the war as suggested in the OP, although that seems unlikely then it depends on the exact circumstances. Albania could well stay under Italian domination and Greece could remain independent but I see no basis for Italy having a significant influence in the Balkans beyond it. Even if the Soviets are somehow too weak to dominate the region Italy is too mistrusted to likely have much say and Britain or the US is probably going to be the favoured great power.
First, the lack of the Kiev diversion would be decisive. The logistics, after a period of rest and buildup in August, would've allowed for an offensive push on Moscow at the start of September. I did more research on this to confirm it: H. G. W. Davie (2017) The Influence of Railways on Military Operations in the Russo-German War 1941–1945, The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 30:2, 321-346, DOI: 10.1080/13518046.2017.1308120 I've already previously cited Glantz to show Soviet force generation would be unable in September to defeat such an offensive. As for Eritrea, in 1943 it's population was 843,000 making those 100,000 Italians 11% of the total population; that's comparable to Blacks in the United States in the modern day size-wise.
You're used and I've and countered those points in the past about the eastern front somehow becoming a walkover for the Germans.
11% is still a small percentage and unless the Italian government can push a lot of settlers into Eritrea and keep them there their likely to be outnumbered considerably by the locals. This could be difficult given an almost certain decline in the reproduction rate in Italy, the continued military and other demands of a fascist regime and the rise of nationalism.
Plus even if the Italians somehow manage to make themselves a majority in Eritrea then given it was historically part of Ethiopia that's going to have a claim that is likely in that case to be supported by a lot of Eritreans and once Egypt gains independence and control of the Suez canal its going to be very difficult supplying the garrison there. Settler colonies in a large and hostile sea of natives are going to be vulnerable unless your willing to go to extreme steps, virtually genocide or widespread ethnic cleansing and also can stop democracy developing in your home country. This would be even worse if Italy held a large empire in the Balkans as that would tie down even more resources and probably be a higher priority to hold than a distant and poor colony in the Red Sea.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 29, 2019 11:05:09 GMT
So would Albania remain part of Italy for long ore might it try to fight for Independence.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 29, 2019 11:18:03 GMT
So would Albania remain part of Italy for long ore might it try to fight for Independence.
A lot would depend on the circumstances. Its small enough and close enough to Italy that despite the cultural and religious differences Italy might hold it for quite a while or even if it ditched fascism quickly enough and efficiently it might keep it until the present day. Of course while its fascist this is going to be more difficult especially if as seems likely Stalin gets something like his OTL empire in the Balkans as the resistance to Italian rule is likely to get a lot of support, quite possibly including a lot of 'volunteers' with military experience/equipment. In this latter case especially if Italy stays neutral throughout WWII.
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Post by shaunafromthegully on Dec 29, 2019 13:57:50 GMT
By the way, here's my favorite WWII front page... from 1939... a completely false headline about a offensive that never existed. Later on, journalists would be able to find ways past Allied propaganda.  |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 29, 2019 14:02:58 GMT
By the way, here's my favorite WWII front page... from 1939... a completely false headline about a offensive that never existed. Later on, journalists would be able to find ways past Allied propaganda. View AttachmentHas this anything to do with this thread. |
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Post by EwellHolmes on Dec 30, 2019 2:38:51 GMT
First, the lack of the Kiev diversion would be decisive. The logistics, after a period of rest and buildup in August, would've allowed for an offensive push on Moscow at the start of September. I did more research on this to confirm it: H. G. W. Davie (2017) The Influence of Railways on Military Operations in the Russo-German War 1941–1945, The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 30:2, 321-346, DOI: 10.1080/13518046.2017.1308120 I've already previously cited Glantz to show Soviet force generation would be unable in September to defeat such an offensive. As for Eritrea, in 1943 it's population was 843,000 making those 100,000 Italians 11% of the total population; that's comparable to Blacks in the United States in the modern day size-wise.
You're used and I've and countered those points in the past about the eastern front somehow becoming a walkover for the Germans.
11% is still a small percentage and unless the Italian government can push a lot of settlers into Eritrea and keep them there their likely to be outnumbered considerably by the locals. This could be difficult given an almost certain decline in the reproduction rate in Italy, the continued military and other demands of a fascist regime and the rise of nationalism.
Plus even if the Italians somehow manage to make themselves a majority in Eritrea then given it was historically part of Ethiopia that's going to have a claim that is likely in that case to be supported by a lot of Eritreans and once Egypt gains independence and control of the Suez canal its going to be very difficult supplying the garrison there. Settler colonies in a large and hostile sea of natives are going to be vulnerable unless your willing to go to extreme steps, virtually genocide or widespread ethnic cleansing and also can stop democracy developing in your home country. This would be even worse if Italy held a large empire in the Balkans as that would tie down even more resources and probably be a higher priority to hold than a distant and poor colony in the Red Sea.
It's a brand new source that establishes the validity of the logistics system to support a German advance on Moscow in September. I've also already cited Glantz to show that Soviet force generation in September was extremely weak, with only one new Army created while in October that managed to do four; in other words, significantly less forces would be on hand to oppose the German drive. When they have the means and the other side doesn't, the end result is clear. As for Italy, 11% after just a few years of settler-colonialism is telling. The population would not surpass 1 million until the 1960s, meaning the Italians could establish a very large presence indeed over the decades and they do not, after all, require a majority to maintain their rule. Eritreans also had no interest in joining Ethiopia, being opposed to such in 1945 IOTL and ultimately fighting a bitter civil war that has morphed into some of the largest conventional fighting in Africa since WWII that has continued until recently. Part of the reason there was a lot of backlash to that Swedish girl getting the Nobel was because one of her contenders was an Ethiopian politician that has been working to finally get some peace in the area. |
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] It could be that Germany lasts that little longer so the 1st nukes are used against it and borders might vary a bit but not greatly.
