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Post by shaunafromthegully on Dec 26, 2019 13:13:04 GMT
Benny the Moose was never in Hitler's league. Had Italy stayed out, Libya would be majority Italian in 2019. Abyssinia would have been a running sore, but even that would be better than Mengistu who used famine as a political weapon. God knows what Italian Somaliland would have been like in an "Italy stays out" world.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 26, 2019 13:39:09 GMT
Benny the Moose was never in Hitler's league. Had Italy stayed out, Libya would be majority Italian in 2019. Abyssinia would have been a running sore, but even that would be better than Mengistu who used famine as a political weapon. God knows what Italian Somaliland would have been like in an "Italy stays out" world. A interesting question, but i doubt Italy like other European countries would be able to keep its colonies after the end of the war. |
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Post by shaunafromthegully on Dec 26, 2019 14:14:24 GMT
The Italians will be willing to go a lot further than even the British did in Kenya so things could get ugly. Assuming Benny dies in the early 1960s and a democratic regime replaces Mussolini's initial successor (and the monarchy, as it's doomed in this world too), there will be decolonization (again, except for Libya, as it will be majority Italian by then).
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 26, 2019 14:19:02 GMT
The Italians will be willing to go a lot further than even the British did in Kenya so things could get ugly. Assuming Benny dies in the early 1960s and a democratic regime replaces Mussolini's initial successor (and the monarchy, as it's doomed in this world too), there will be decolonization (again, except for Libya, as it will be majority Italian by then). Well the monarchy might survive, if you look at the 1946 Italian institutional referendum, it was a a 10 point deference, but a Italy that stays out of the war until 1945 might survive stronger. |
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Post by shaunafromthegully on Dec 26, 2019 14:24:43 GMT
I'd take another decade or two of Mussolini as it means no Mumar Qaddafi.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 26, 2019 14:27:45 GMT
I'd take another decade or two of Mussolini as it means no Mumar Qaddafi. Also we see Italy under Mussolini and Spain under Franco grow closer. |
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Post by shaunafromthegully on Dec 26, 2019 14:36:44 GMT
What happens to Yugoslavia in this world?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 26, 2019 14:39:07 GMT
What happens to Yugoslavia in this world? Remains a kingdom, maybe a civil war between communist and Royalist in the future with Italy supporting the Royalist and the Soviet Union supporting the communist. |
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Post by shaunafromthegully on Dec 26, 2019 14:50:47 GMT
If it looks like the Yugoslav royal government is under threat, the Americans will support Benny in "assisting" them to "maintain order".
I also just realized that Austria is likely an Italian vassal in this world.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 26, 2019 14:52:12 GMT
If it looks like the Yugoslav royal government is under threat, the Americans will support Benny in "assisting" them to "maintain order". I also just realized that Austria is likely an Italian vassal in this world. Do not think Austria will become a Italian vassal, the Allies nor Soviets going to want ore like that, i think it will remain neutral as OTL. |
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Post by EwellHolmes on Dec 27, 2019 2:27:18 GMT
Benny the Moose was never in Hitler's league. Had Italy stayed out, Libya would be majority Italian in 2019. Abyssinia would have been a running sore, but even that would be better than Mengistu who used famine as a political weapon. God knows what Italian Somaliland would have been like in an "Italy stays out" world. Eritrea probably would also become majority Italian; even today, they only have a population of 4 million and there was a large Italian population already by the 1930s. Without Italian diversions in the Balkans and Africa, the Germans likely take Leningrad and possibly Moscow in 1941, taking the Soviets into collapse in 1942/1943. WWII likely ends with nuclear weapons usage in the ETO. Italy can probably carve out a large zone of influence, including Austria, Hungary and Romania. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 27, 2019 12:08:06 GMT
Benny the Moose was never in Hitler's league. Had Italy stayed out, Libya would be majority Italian in 2019. Abyssinia would have been a running sore, but even that would be better than Mengistu who used famine as a political weapon. God knows what Italian Somaliland would have been like in an "Italy stays out" world. Eritrea probably would also become majority Italian; even today, they only have a population of 4 million and there was a large Italian population already by the 1930s. Without Italian diversions in the Balkans and Africa, the Germans likely take Leningrad and possibly Moscow in 1941, taking the Soviets into collapse in 1942/1943. WWII likely ends with nuclear weapons usage in the ETO. Italy can probably carve out a large zone of influence, including Austria, Hungary and Romania.
According to Wiki that large Italian population in Eritrea was ~100,000, which isn't exactly massive. Depending on the relationship but a shared suffering under Italian fascism could well mean that when Ethiopia becomes independent Eritrea comes with in. A lot would depend on how both the west and the Soviets deal with the rump fascists states after the defeat of Nazi Germany.
If Italy stays totally neutral, which is unlikely, then Britain is boosted considerably and Germany a bit in the short term but very unlikely to make much of a difference in the war with the Soviets. [We're had this debate before so no news there.  ] It could be that Germany lasts that little longer so the 1st nukes are used against it and borders might vary a bit but not greatly.
If Italy joins the allies in the last days of the war as suggested in the OP, although that seems unlikely then it depends on the exact circumstances. Albania could well stay under Italian domination and Greece could remain independent but I see no basis for Italy having a significant influence in the Balkans beyond it. Even if the Soviets are somehow too weak to dominate the region Italy is too mistrusted to likely have much say and Britain or the US is probably going to be the favoured great power.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 27, 2019 12:17:30 GMT
Eritrea probably would also become majority Italian; even today, they only have a population of 4 million and there was a large Italian population already by the 1930s. Without Italian diversions in the Balkans and Africa, the Germans likely take Leningrad and possibly Moscow in 1941, taking the Soviets into collapse in 1942/1943. WWII likely ends with nuclear weapons usage in the ETO. Italy can probably carve out a large zone of influence, including Austria, Hungary and Romania. According to Wiki that large Italian population in Eritrea was ~100,000, which isn't exactly massive. Depending on the relationship but a shared suffering under Italian fascism could well mean that when Ethiopia becomes independent Eritrea comes with in. A lot would depend on how both the west and the Soviets deal with the rump fascists states after the defeat of Nazi Germany. If Italy stays totally neutral, which is unlikely, then Britain is boosted considerably and Germany a bit in the short term but very unlikely to make much of a difference in the war with the Soviets. [We're had this debate before so no news there. ] It could be that Germany lasts that little longer so the 1st nukes are used against it and borders might vary a bit but not greatly. If Italy joins the allies in the last days of the war as suggested in the OP, although that seems unlikely then it depends on the exact circumstances. Albania could well stay under Italian domination and Greece could remain independent but I see no basis for Italy having a significant influence in the Balkans beyond it. Even if the Soviets are somehow too weak to dominate the region Italy is too mistrusted to likely have much say and Britain or the US is probably going to be the favoured great power.
If Italy stays nutral i see the following. No invasion of Greece by Italy. No disastrous Italian invasion of Greece. No need for German to aid Italy. Planned German invasion of Soviet Union begins as planned in May 1941. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 27, 2019 13:55:31 GMT
According to Wiki that large Italian population in Eritrea was ~100,000, which isn't exactly massive. Depending on the relationship but a shared suffering under Italian fascism could well mean that when Ethiopia becomes independent Eritrea comes with in. A lot would depend on how both the west and the Soviets deal with the rump fascists states after the defeat of Nazi Germany. If Italy stays totally neutral, which is unlikely, then Britain is boosted considerably and Germany a bit in the short term but very unlikely to make much of a difference in the war with the Soviets. [We're had this debate before so no news there. ] It could be that Germany lasts that little longer so the 1st nukes are used against it and borders might vary a bit but not greatly. If Italy joins the allies in the last days of the war as suggested in the OP, although that seems unlikely then it depends on the exact circumstances. Albania could well stay under Italian domination and Greece could remain independent but I see no basis for Italy having a significant influence in the Balkans beyond it. Even if the Soviets are somehow too weak to dominate the region Italy is too mistrusted to likely have much say and Britain or the US is probably going to be the favoured great power.
If Italy stays nutral i see the following. No invasion of Greece by Italy. No disastrous Italian invasion of Greece. No need for German to aid Italy. Planned German invasion of Soviet Union begins as planned in May 1941.
According to at least some sources it still wouldn't be in May because of a wet spring greatly restricting movement but would be a little earlier than OTL and with slightly larger forces. Still unlikely to make a massive difference given the sheer number of reserves the Soviets moblised OTL and are likely to do this time.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Dec 28, 2019 23:30:56 GMT
Eritrea probably would also become majority Italian; even today, they only have a population of 4 million and there was a large Italian population already by the 1930s. Without Italian diversions in the Balkans and Africa, the Germans likely take Leningrad and possibly Moscow in 1941, taking the Soviets into collapse in 1942/1943. WWII likely ends with nuclear weapons usage in the ETO. Italy can probably carve out a large zone of influence, including Austria, Hungary and Romania.
According to Wiki that large Italian population in Eritrea was ~100,000, which isn't exactly massive. Depending on the relationship but a shared suffering under Italian fascism could well mean that when Ethiopia becomes independent Eritrea comes with in. A lot would depend on how both the west and the Soviets deal with the rump fascists states after the defeat of Nazi Germany.
If Italy stays totally neutral, which is unlikely, then Britain is boosted considerably and Germany a bit in the short term but very unlikely to make much of a difference in the war with the Soviets. [We're had this debate before so no news there. ] It could be that Germany lasts that little longer so the 1st nukes are used against it and borders might vary a bit but not greatly.
If Italy joins the allies in the last days of the war as suggested in the OP, although that seems unlikely then it depends on the exact circumstances. Albania could well stay under Italian domination and Greece could remain independent but I see no basis for Italy having a significant influence in the Balkans beyond it. Even if the Soviets are somehow too weak to dominate the region Italy is too mistrusted to likely have much say and Britain or the US is probably going to be the favoured great power.
First, the lack of the Kiev diversion would be decisive. The logistics, after a period of rest and buildup in August, would've allowed for an offensive push on Moscow at the start of September. I did more research on this to confirm it: H. G. W. Davie (2017) The Influence of Railways on Military Operations in the Russo-German War 1941–1945, The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 30:2, 321-346, DOI: 10.1080/13518046.2017.1308120 I've already previously cited Glantz to show Soviet force generation would be unable in September to defeat such an offensive. As for Eritrea, in 1943 it's population was 843,000 making those 100,000 Italians 11% of the total population; that's comparable to Blacks in the United States in the modern day size-wise. |
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] It could be that Germany lasts that little longer so the 1st nukes are used against it and borders might vary a bit but not greatly.