markp
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Post by markp on Jan 25, 2020 7:00:30 GMT
They probably could but with the Panama Canal there would be very little shipping going around the Horn. The US would probably not bother until the defeat of Germany and Japan and the UK probably could not go it alone until the main war was won. There is also the possibility that the Argentines would see the writing on the wall and give the Islands back in exchange for economic aid especially if there is a regime change
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 25, 2020 12:02:38 GMT
They probably could but with the Panama Canal there would be very little shipping going around the Horn. The US would probably not bother until the defeat of Germany and Japan and the UK probably could not go it alone until the main war was won. There is also the possibility that the Argentines would see the writing on the wall and give the Islands back in exchange for economic aid especially if there is a regime change
I suspect both would bother fairly quickly. Both because they wouldn't want to have a fascist base in Latin America, because of the importance of trade in the S Atlantic. There's not really much traffic around Cape Horn but there's a lot from areas in S America and also around the Cape of Good Hope which would be far more exposed with possible Argentinian support for the U boats. Also it should be a relatively easy case to crush the regime in Argentina, especially since you could probably get some support from its neighbours and it would be a good morale boost for the allies.
Also given the threat and the issue of image, which was always important to Churchill I could see him pushing for it very quickly. No way would he be willing to wait until after Germany and Japan were defeated.
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Post by 49ersfootball on Jan 25, 2020 13:33:33 GMT
Big question is whether this opens the door for Colonel Peron to Palacio da Olivios in 1946 ?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 25, 2020 15:12:00 GMT
Big question is whether this opens the door for Colonel Peron to Palacio da Olivios in 1946 ? Doubt it, he is a army officer, doubt the Argentinians will want another Army officer as president, not do i think the Americans ore British.
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Post by 49ersfootball on Jan 25, 2020 19:42:18 GMT
Considering the coup d'etat against Castillo occurred in 1943.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 25, 2020 19:43:55 GMT
Considering the coup d'etat against Castillo occurred in 1943. Well that could be something to see a Pro-Allied coup in Argtinina to remove the Regime that invaded the Falklands in 1941, if by that time there where not at full at war with the Allies by then.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jan 26, 2020 4:56:19 GMT
Just curious, didn't Argentinians have a proper Navy in 1941? Also I could the Brazilians and other South American allied powers take care of them had they done this.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 26, 2020 8:32:07 GMT
Just curious, didn't Argentinians have a proper Navy in 1941? Also I could the Brazilians and other South American allied powers take care of them had they done this. Using Wikipedia as a source quickly (will try to find out more), the Argentina Navy in 1941 was ranked the eighth most powerful in the world (after the European powers, Japan, and the United States) and the largest in Latin America and had these ships in service: BattleshipsRivadavia-class dreadnoughtsARA Rivadavia ARA Moreno Heavy cruisersAlmirante Brown-class heavy cruisers ARA Almirante Brown ARA Veinticinco de Mayo CruisersLa Argentina-class light cruiserARA La Argentina, designed for training naval cadets. Giuseppe Garibaldi-class armoured cruisers ARA Pueyrredón DestroyersCatamarca-class destroyersARA Catamarca ARA Jujuy La Plata-class destroyersARA Córdoba ARA La Plata Cervantes-class destroyersARA Cervantes ARA Juan de Garay Mendoza-class destroyersARA Mendoza ARA La Rioja ARA Tucuman Buenos Aires-class destroyerARA Buenos Aires ARA Corrientes ARA Entre Rios ARA Misiones ARA San Juan ARA San Luis ARA Santa Cruz SubmarinesSanta Fe-class submarineARA Santa Fe ARA Salta ARA Santiago
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 26, 2020 12:31:17 GMT
Just curious, didn't Argentinians have a proper Navy in 1941? Also I could the Brazilians and other South American allied powers take care of them had they done this. Using Wikipedia as a source quickly (will try to find out more), the Argentina Navy in 1941 was ranked the eighth most powerful in the world (after the European powers, Japan, and the United States) and the largest in Latin America and had these ships in service: BattleshipsRivadavia-class dreadnoughtsARA Rivadavia ARA Moreno Heavy cruisersAlmirante Brown-class heavy cruisers ARA Almirante Brown ARA Veinticinco de Mayo CruisersLa Argentina-class light cruiserARA La Argentina, designed for training naval cadets. Giuseppe Garibaldi-class armoured cruisers ARA Pueyrredón DestroyersCatamarca-class destroyersARA Catamarca ARA Jujuy La Plata-class destroyersARA Córdoba ARA La Plata Cervantes-class destroyersARA Cervantes ARA Juan de Garay Mendoza-class destroyersARA Mendoza ARA La Rioja ARA Tucuman Buenos Aires-class destroyerARA Buenos Aires ARA Corrientes ARA Entre Rios ARA Misiones ARA San Juan ARA San Luis ARA Santa Cruz SubmarinesSanta Fe-class submarineARA Santa Fe ARA Salta ARA Santiago
It was the strongest of the southern cone powers in numbers and also probably in quality at that point. However Chile and Brazil both had fleets of their own as well as possible bases to operate against Argentina from and Chile has long standing border disputes with Argentina. Plus I;m not sure how much of the fleet could be supported locally. The two BBs were of US construction and I believe got their 12" shells from the US rather than locally produced so that's not likely to last long as an obvious example. Also I doubt they had much in the way of modern a/c, especially given how much the last two years of warfare had speeded-up developments in the combatants and the US or any radar. As such they could provide a problem and definitely a drain on resources to detach a task force to liberate the Falklands and defeat the Argentinian fleet, especially if their attack occurs late in 41, which means the western powers are also reeling from the Japanese attack.
The other big short term problem for Britain would be that it imported a lot of food and possibly other stuff from the region and that would be stopped or seriously disrupted while Argentina was an hostile power. Britain's trade in the region had probably declined somewhat as more imports came from N America which was closer and hence took less merchant shipping.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jan 26, 2020 13:57:28 GMT
Using Wikipedia as a source quickly (will try to find out more), the Argentina Navy in 1941 was ranked the eighth most powerful in the world (after the European powers, Japan, and the United States) and the largest in Latin America and had these ships in service: BattleshipsRivadavia-class dreadnoughtsARA Rivadavia ARA Moreno Heavy cruisersAlmirante Brown-class heavy cruisers ARA Almirante Brown ARA Veinticinco de Mayo CruisersLa Argentina-class light cruiserARA La Argentina, designed for training naval cadets. Giuseppe Garibaldi-class armoured cruisers ARA Pueyrredón DestroyersCatamarca-class destroyersARA Catamarca ARA Jujuy La Plata-class destroyersARA Córdoba ARA La Plata Cervantes-class destroyersARA Cervantes ARA Juan de Garay Mendoza-class destroyersARA Mendoza ARA La Rioja ARA Tucuman Buenos Aires-class destroyerARA Buenos Aires ARA Corrientes ARA Entre Rios ARA Misiones ARA San Juan ARA San Luis ARA Santa Cruz SubmarinesSanta Fe-class submarineARA Santa Fe ARA Salta ARA Santiago
It was the strongest of the southern cone powers in numbers and also probably in quality at that point. However Chile and Brazil both had fleets of their own as well as possible bases to operate against Argentina from and Chile has long standing border disputes with Argentina. Plus I;m not sure how much of the fleet could be supported locally. The two BBs were of US construction and I believe got their 12" shells from the US rather than locally produced so that's not likely to last long as an obvious example. Also I doubt they had much in the way of modern a/c, especially given how much the last two years of warfare had speeded-up developments in the combatants and the US or any radar. As such they could provide a problem and definitely a drain on resources to detach a task force to liberate the Falklands and defeat the Argentinian fleet, especially if their attack occurs late in 41, which means the western powers are also reeling from the Japanese attack.
The other big short term problem for Britain would be that it imported a lot of food and possibly other stuff from the region and that would be stopped or seriously disrupted while Argentina was an hostile power. Britain's trade in the region had probably declined somewhat as more imports came from N America which was closer and hence took less merchant shipping.
The Royal Navy would be spread too thin then should the Argentinians invade. Since this POD is before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and the sinking of Repulse and Prince of Whales, they I could see these big battleships be deployed to the Falklands, thereby butterflying their sinking and leaving Singapore and Malaya even more vulnerable to the Japanese.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 26, 2020 14:06:51 GMT
It was the strongest of the southern cone powers in numbers and also probably in quality at that point. However Chile and Brazil both had fleets of their own as well as possible bases to operate against Argentina from and Chile has long standing border disputes with Argentina. Plus I;m not sure how much of the fleet could be supported locally. The two BBs were of US construction and I believe got their 12" shells from the US rather than locally produced so that's not likely to last long as an obvious example. Also I doubt they had much in the way of modern a/c, especially given how much the last two years of warfare had speeded-up developments in the combatants and the US or any radar. As such they could provide a problem and definitely a drain on resources to detach a task force to liberate the Falklands and defeat the Argentinian fleet, especially if their attack occurs late in 41, which means the western powers are also reeling from the Japanese attack.
The other big short term problem for Britain would be that it imported a lot of food and possibly other stuff from the region and that would be stopped or seriously disrupted while Argentina was an hostile power. Britain's trade in the region had probably declined somewhat as more imports came from N America which was closer and hence took less merchant shipping.
The Royal Navy would be spread too thin then should the Argentinians invade. Since this POD is before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and the sinking of Repulse and Prince of Whales, they I could see these big battleships be deployed to the Falklands, thereby butterflying their sinking and leaving Singapore and Malaya even more vulnerable to the Japanese. That could be a possibility, i could see them and a carrier ore two do a attack against Puerto Belgrano Naval Base, the largest naval base of the Argentine Navy, the British could then make it clear that they would sink any Argentina naval ships afterwards unless Argentine handed back control of the Falklands to the United Kingdom.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jan 26, 2020 14:24:44 GMT
The Royal Navy would be spread too thin then should the Argentinians invade. Since this POD is before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and the sinking of Repulse and Prince of Whales, they I could see these big battleships be deployed to the Falklands, thereby butterflying their sinking and leaving Singapore and Malaya even more vulnerable to the Japanese. That could be a possibility, i could see them and a carrier ore two do a attack against Puerto Belgrano Naval Base, the largest naval base of the Argentine Navy, the British could then make it clear that they would sink any Argentina naval ships afterwards unless Argentine handed back control of the Falklands to the United Kingdom. Or alternatively Churchill requests the U.S. to pressure Argentines not to do so.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 26, 2020 14:26:03 GMT
It was the strongest of the southern cone powers in numbers and also probably in quality at that point. However Chile and Brazil both had fleets of their own as well as possible bases to operate against Argentina from and Chile has long standing border disputes with Argentina. Plus I;m not sure how much of the fleet could be supported locally. The two BBs were of US construction and I believe got their 12" shells from the US rather than locally produced so that's not likely to last long as an obvious example. Also I doubt they had much in the way of modern a/c, especially given how much the last two years of warfare had speeded-up developments in the combatants and the US or any radar. As such they could provide a problem and definitely a drain on resources to detach a task force to liberate the Falklands and defeat the Argentinian fleet, especially if their attack occurs late in 41, which means the western powers are also reeling from the Japanese attack.
The other big short term problem for Britain would be that it imported a lot of food and possibly other stuff from the region and that would be stopped or seriously disrupted while Argentina was an hostile power. Britain's trade in the region had probably declined somewhat as more imports came from N America which was closer and hence took less merchant shipping.
The Royal Navy would be spread too thin then should the Argentinians invade. Since this POD is before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and the sinking of Repulse and Prince of Whales, they I could see these big battleships be deployed to the Falklands, thereby butterflying their sinking and leaving Singapore and Malaya even more vulnerable to the Japanese.
That's a possibility depending on the timing and could be a big plus for the RN. It wasn't strong enough to defend Malaya and the DEI, which needed ground troops and land based air for that task. Although I could see them if operating against Argentina when the Japanese attack being sent east as the later would be seen as the more serious threat depending on the situation. Ideally if the Argentinian attack came at the right time you could have some resolution, with say a coup in Buenos Aires and Britain regaining the islands in time to be sent east on new of the Japanese attack but being too late to fight for the DEI.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 26, 2020 14:36:28 GMT
That could be a possibility, i could see them and a carrier ore two do a attack against Puerto Belgrano Naval Base, the largest naval base of the Argentine Navy, the British could then make it clear that they would sink any Argentina naval ships afterwards unless Argentine handed back control of the Falklands to the United Kingdom. Or alternatively Churchill requests the U.S. to pressure Argentines not to do so.
I think the assumption is that the Argentinians attack without Britain getting warning. If it did then at the least a very strict warning would occur and a bit more time the islands would be reinforced by land, sea and possibly air. Even a battalion of infantry, especially with a bit of artillery would make a landing at Stanley a big task and fear of a couple of subs could also seriously restrict enemy fleet movement.
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markp
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Post by markp on Feb 2, 2020 1:50:35 GMT
While Argentina did have a decent surface fleet it had no carriers. Once the allies got around to dealing with Argentina US carrier air power would quickly decimate the Argentine navy. If the POD was in 1939 or 1940. The surface battle between the Argentine navy and RN would be an interesting scenario
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