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Post by lukedalton on Nov 22, 2019 18:34:03 GMT
We must work a little for this scenario.
- Belgium can split up, but not due to the treaty of Versailles; maybe a couple of year after the war the tension between the two part become too great, probably the Germans have worsened the situation much more than OTL. The Great powers decide to divide the country to stop a possible nasty civil war before it goes hot.
- Wilson get his stroke just before the start of the peace conference, almost neutering the american delegation
- Italy get the promised part of Dalmatia but for the moment Fiume is kept as a separate entity with the caveat that a referendum will be held 15 years after the signing of the treaty for enstablish the final destiny of the city.
- Austria almost fall to revolution, for this reason there is the ok to the union but France is really not happy and try to bring Italy and Belgium (later Netherland) in some kind of alliance as there is no other game in town for the moment
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 22, 2019 20:48:01 GMT
We must work a little for this scenario. - Belgium can split up, but not due to the treaty of Versailles; maybe a couple of year after the war the tension between the two part become too great, probably the Germans have worsened the situation much more than OTL. The Great powers decide to divide the country to stop a possible nasty civil war before it goes hot. - Wilson get his stroke just before the start of the peace conference, almost neutering the american delegation - Italy get the promised part of Dalmatia but for the moment Fiume is kept as a separate entity with the caveat that a referendum will be held 15 years after the signing of the treaty for enstablish the final destiny of the city. - Austria almost fall to revolution, for this reason there is the ok to the union but France is really not happy and try to bring Italy and Belgium (later Netherland) in some kind of alliance as there is no other game in town for the moment
If Wilson has his stroke before the conference and hence the US has a minimal role in the peace treaty its likely to be markedly harsher for Germany not more moderate. Also since Wilson was a supporter of almost unbridled national sovereignty and allowing as many small groups as possible to have their own national state it sounds even less likely to lead to a carve up of Belgium.
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Post by lukedalton on Nov 22, 2019 21:38:29 GMT
We must work a little for this scenario. - Belgium can split up, but not due to the treaty of Versailles; maybe a couple of year after the war the tension between the two part become too great, probably the Germans have worsened the situation much more than OTL. The Great powers decide to divide the country to stop a possible nasty civil war before it goes hot. - Wilson get his stroke just before the start of the peace conference, almost neutering the american delegation - Italy get the promised part of Dalmatia but for the moment Fiume is kept as a separate entity with the caveat that a referendum will be held 15 years after the signing of the treaty for enstablish the final destiny of the city. - Austria almost fall to revolution, for this reason there is the ok to the union but France is really not happy and try to bring Italy and Belgium (later Netherland) in some kind of alliance as there is no other game in town for the moment
If Wilson has his stroke before the conference and hence the US has a minimal role in the peace treaty its likely to be markedly harsher for Germany not more moderate. Also since Wilson was a supporter of almost unbridled national sovereignty and allowing as many small groups as possible to have their own national state it sounds even less likely to lead to a carve up of Belgium.
Regarding Belgium...well, for this reason i say that the division is some years later and not directly related to the peace conference and for Germany, well even the UK is not very eager to follow French politics and neuter Germany forever and ever as it need a bulkwark against Soviet and French dominance in the continent and the sudden death of the representative of one of the Great Powers just at the begun of the conference can create confusion enough that giving some more territory away for the possibility to let Germany and Austria unify can be seen as viable, expecially if Austria seem on the verge of collapse/revolution |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 23, 2019 11:31:52 GMT
If Wilson has his stroke before the conference and hence the US has a minimal role in the peace treaty its likely to be markedly harsher for Germany not more moderate. Also since Wilson was a supporter of almost unbridled national sovereignty and allowing as many small groups as possible to have their own national state it sounds even less likely to lead to a carve up of Belgium.
Regarding Belgium...well, for this reason i say that the division is some years later and not directly related to the peace conference and for Germany, well even the UK is not very eager to follow French politics and neuter Germany forever and ever as it need a bulkwark against Soviet and French dominance in the continent and the sudden death of the representative of one of the Great Powers just at the begun of the conference can create confusion enough that giving some more territory away for the possibility to let Germany and Austria unify can be seen as viable, expecially if Austria seem on the verge of collapse/revolution
a) Belgium - That might do if there was serious internal division. I think someone said Germany tried to incite such during the occupation? Suspect this would be difficult with Albert as a unifying element but possibly if there was some scandal or he dies and his son is less capable then something could happen here. Possibly in the 30's if there is disagreement over how the two factions feel their treated during the depression. However one problem with this is that the OP assumed this as occurring at the time of the Conference as a way of 'increasing' French power and hence making it feel less threatened by Germany and agreeing Austria being absorbed by Germany.
b) Austria - I suspect this would be difficult because with both Russia and the US clearly out of play in terms of the balance of power - since the Republicans were clearly isolationist by this point - I think this would tighten the Franco-British-Belgium alliance as all would feel extremely worried about a revanchist Germany and you could quite possibly see Poland and Czechoslovakia coming into a formal defensive alliance. Also without needing to try and balance widely diverging views of Clemenceau and Wilson Lloyd-George is more likely to swing Britain behind French aims. Which is likely to mean a harsher treaty in some forms at least.
It might be that an Austrian/German union would be agreed but with Italy getting more territory and also as a way of keeping Italy tied into the western alliance as it would now border a potentially hostile Germany. However I think that France would definitely want a considerable amount of greater territorial weakening of Germany to reduce the potential threat and that Britain would be markedly more supportive of it in such a circumstance.
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