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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 20, 2019 13:22:17 GMT
In 1985, the Mexico City earthquake killed at least 10,000 people, and brought the ruling PRI regime effectively to a standstill, engendering great anger and forcing average citizens to effectively take over rescue and recovery efforts until the government got its act together. By 1988, the PRI was facing its first real challenge to its one party rule in the form of the PRD's candidacy in Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, which the PRI would respond to with political assassinations and, ultimately, flagrantly stealing the election in what is still called cayo el sistema; "the system crashed." Enrique Krauze, a famous Mexican historian, has stated that if it wasn't for the personalities involved, particularly in regards to Cárdenas, Mexico would've went up in flames at this time in a likely civil war. Now, this whole ordeal makes me interesting as about this time something incredible happened with Mexico. Este País polled Mexicans in 1991 and found that 59% of Mexican supported annexation by the United States! they asked it again in 1999 and found a similar response, which underlines the strength of this idea at the time. I have no idea if this has been subjected to another poll, but it is interesting to note the Pew back in 2005 did find even then that 40% of Mexicans would permanently move to the United States if they could. This also isn't completely out of left field either, having popped in American discourse a few times, at least in part, during the 1990s and early 2000s as well. So let's say it happens. What happens next?
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 20, 2019 13:33:11 GMT
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Oct 20, 2019 14:37:51 GMT
It’s an...interesting question to posit, but shouldn’t this be in ‘Politics and Current Affairs’ more than anywhere else?
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 20, 2019 14:42:16 GMT
It’s an...interesting question to posit, but shouldn’t this be in ‘Politics and Current Affairs’ more than anywhere else? I don't see how given it's positing Mexico has a Second Civil War in the 1980s and then gets annexed by the United States.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 20, 2019 14:44:25 GMT
It’s an...interesting question to posit, but shouldn’t this be in ‘Politics and Current Affairs’ more than anywhere else?
Plus the other issue is that it takes two to tango. While there might be a large number of Mexicans who would like to move to the US or even see Mexico annexed to the US how many Americans would be willing to actually take over Mexico as new states or even a colonial type regime given the mess Mexico was in, the debts it had and the burden of governing it?
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 20, 2019 15:03:07 GMT
It’s an...interesting question to posit, but shouldn’t this be in ‘Politics and Current Affairs’ more than anywhere else?
Plus the other issue is that it takes two to tango. While there might be a large number of Mexicans who would like to move to the US or even see Mexico annexed to the US how many Americans would be willing to actually take over Mexico as new states or even a colonial type regime given the mess Mexico was in, the debts it had and the burden of governing it?
Probably quite a few, even some on the hard right were open to it back in the Bush years.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 21, 2019 14:57:25 GMT
Plus the other issue is that it takes two to tango. While there might be a large number of Mexicans who would like to move to the US or even see Mexico annexed to the US how many Americans would be willing to actually take over Mexico as new states or even a colonial type regime given the mess Mexico was in, the debts it had and the burden of governing it?
Probably quite a few, even some on the hard right were open to it back in the Bush years.
Very few in terms of the actual population however. There might be more Latinos in the US who support some intervention to restore law and order to prevent suffering and also mass fleeing of refugeese to the US but a desire for actual annexation is very likely to have much support given the burden it would require the US to take on.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 21, 2019 17:27:19 GMT
Probably quite a few, even some on the hard right were open to it back in the Bush years.
Very few in terms of the actual population however. There might be more Latinos in the US who support some intervention to restore law and order to prevent suffering and also mass fleeing of refugeese to the US but a desire for actual annexation is very likely to have much support given the burden it would require the US to take on.
With regards to the possibility of this on the American end, I think there is equal validity. The Annexation of Mexico by left wing author John Ross claims the Reagan Administration sought to purchase Baja California from Mexico in the 1980s. Whether or not that's true I leave for the reader to decide, but there definitely has been agitation on the Right to annex Mexico, even to the present in some form. U.S. officials were also open to the prospect of some degree of economic and political unification during the Bush II administration according to Wikileaks documents from 2011. The 1990s were also a state of flux. The Jack Kemp types were still around and Bush II would kinda tap into that in the 2000s, with "Compassionate Conservatism" and famously winning nearly half of the Hispanic vote in 2004; all the more interesting because the U.S. population of Mexicans tends to be more Left wing than native Mexicans and Mexican-Americans compromised a very large share of the U.S. Hispanic population then. Mexico has a tax to GDP ratio of 16.2% as of 2017, as compared to 27.1% for the United States. Given Mexico would likely be brought under the same regulatory burden as the United States, applying the aforementioned U.S. rate to their OTL 2019 GDP of $1.15 Trillion results in ~$312 Billion in revenue gained. To put that into perspective, the entire cost of the refundable part of the Earned Income Tax Credit ($55 billion), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families ($21 billion), Supplemental Security Income ($43.7 billion), food stamps ($75 billion), and housing vouchers ($18 billion) and the Child Tax Credit all together cost just 212 billion dollars. Granted, Medicaid might pose a problem, but that's quite possibly largely made up for by the fact that the median age of Mexico's population is 27.7 years (2015) while in the United States it's 38.2 years; in other words, Social Security and Medicare probably is made solvent by the influx of new workers. If that's not enough, it'll probably encourage the United States to start making reforms done like in other parts of OCED, in particular Singapore. Meanwhile, on the U.S. side they've just added the 12th largest economy by industrial output, which outpaces other nations such as Australia and Russia while is closing in on being the same size as France and Italy in terms of GDP (PPP) even IOTL. A sustained investment of $200 Billion over 10 years could get the newly annexed Mexico to a modern infrastructure system, while U.S. education reforms could get it up to Spain/Italy levels in terms of education. Add in U.S. law preventing the Drug Wars and reducing corruption, and an ATL Mexican economy 30-50% larger is certainly in the ballpark by ATL 2019.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 21, 2019 18:53:42 GMT
Very few in terms of the actual population however. There might be more Latinos in the US who support some intervention to restore law and order to prevent suffering and also mass fleeing of refugeese to the US but a desire for actual annexation is very likely to have much support given the burden it would require the US to take on.
With regards to the possibility of this on the American end, I think there is equal validity. The Annexation of Mexico by left wing author John Ross claims the Reagan Administration sought to purchase Baja California from Mexico in the 1980s. Whether or not that's true I leave for the reader to decide, but there definitely has been agitation on the Right to annex Mexico, even to the present in some form. U.S. officials were also open to the prospect of some degree of economic and political unification during the Bush II administration according to Wikileaks documents from 2011. The 1990s were also a state of flux. The Jack Kemp types were still around and Bush II would kinda tap into that in the 2000s, with "Compassionate Conservatism" and famously winning nearly half of the Hispanic vote in 2004; all the more interesting because the U.S. population of Mexicans tends to be more Left wing than native Mexicans and Mexican-Americans compromised a very large share of the U.S. Hispanic population then. Mexico has a tax to GDP ratio of 16.2% as of 2017, as compared to 27.1% for the United States. Given Mexico would likely be brought under the same regulatory burden as the United States, applying the aforementioned U.S. rate to their OTL 2019 GDP of $1.15 Trillion results in ~$312 Billion in revenue gained. To put that into perspective, the entire cost of the refundable part of the Earned Income Tax Credit ($55 billion), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families ($21 billion), Supplemental Security Income ($43.7 billion), food stamps ($75 billion), and housing vouchers ($18 billion) and the Child Tax Credit all together cost just 212 billion dollars. Granted, Medicaid might pose a problem, but that's quite possibly largely made up for by the fact that the median age of Mexico's population is 27.7 years (2015) while in the United States it's 38.2 years; in other words, Social Security and Medicare probably is made solvent by the influx of new workers. If that's not enough, it'll probably encourage the United States to start making reforms done like in other parts of OCED, in particular Singapore. Meanwhile, on the U.S. side they've just added the 12th largest economy by industrial output, which outpaces other nations such as Australia and Russia while is closing in on being the same size as France and Italy in terms of GDP (PPP) even IOTL. A sustained investment of $200 Billion over 10 years could get the newly annexed Mexico to a modern infrastructure system, while U.S. education reforms could get it up to Spain/Italy levels in terms of education. Add in U.S. law preventing the Drug Wars and reducing corruption, and an ATL Mexican economy 30-50% larger is certainly in the ballpark by ATL 2019.
That assumes that everything goes perfectly, which is unlikely. Also that you will be able to control the Mexican drug and other criminal gangs when the US is struggling to do so in its current territories. That a lot of this infrastructure construction and training of people will go ahead without a lot of waste and corruption. Also don't forget that those social services and other commitments now have to cover another ~125M people, many of whom are a lot poorer than the current median US population.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 22, 2019 3:05:38 GMT
With regards to the possibility of this on the American end, I think there is equal validity. The Annexation of Mexico by left wing author John Ross claims the Reagan Administration sought to purchase Baja California from Mexico in the 1980s. Whether or not that's true I leave for the reader to decide, but there definitely has been agitation on the Right to annex Mexico, even to the present in some form. U.S. officials were also open to the prospect of some degree of economic and political unification during the Bush II administration according to Wikileaks documents from 2011. The 1990s were also a state of flux. The Jack Kemp types were still around and Bush II would kinda tap into that in the 2000s, with "Compassionate Conservatism" and famously winning nearly half of the Hispanic vote in 2004; all the more interesting because the U.S. population of Mexicans tends to be more Left wing than native Mexicans and Mexican-Americans compromised a very large share of the U.S. Hispanic population then. Mexico has a tax to GDP ratio of 16.2% as of 2017, as compared to 27.1% for the United States. Given Mexico would likely be brought under the same regulatory burden as the United States, applying the aforementioned U.S. rate to their OTL 2019 GDP of $1.15 Trillion results in ~$312 Billion in revenue gained. To put that into perspective, the entire cost of the refundable part of the Earned Income Tax Credit ($55 billion), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families ($21 billion), Supplemental Security Income ($43.7 billion), food stamps ($75 billion), and housing vouchers ($18 billion) and the Child Tax Credit all together cost just 212 billion dollars. Granted, Medicaid might pose a problem, but that's quite possibly largely made up for by the fact that the median age of Mexico's population is 27.7 years (2015) while in the United States it's 38.2 years; in other words, Social Security and Medicare probably is made solvent by the influx of new workers. If that's not enough, it'll probably encourage the United States to start making reforms done like in other parts of OCED, in particular Singapore. Meanwhile, on the U.S. side they've just added the 12th largest economy by industrial output, which outpaces other nations such as Australia and Russia while is closing in on being the same size as France and Italy in terms of GDP (PPP) even IOTL. A sustained investment of $200 Billion over 10 years could get the newly annexed Mexico to a modern infrastructure system, while U.S. education reforms could get it up to Spain/Italy levels in terms of education. Add in U.S. law preventing the Drug Wars and reducing corruption, and an ATL Mexican economy 30-50% larger is certainly in the ballpark by ATL 2019.
That assumes that everything goes perfectly, which is unlikely. Also that you will be able to control the Mexican drug and other criminal gangs when the US is struggling to do so in its current territories. That a lot of this infrastructure construction and training of people will go ahead without a lot of waste and corruption. Also don't forget that those social services and other commitments now have to cover another ~125M people, many of whom are a lot poorer than the current median US population.
Using the existing U.S. tax code to Mexico would net about $400 Billion, enough to cover the social services needed given the U.S. spends about $750 Billion on a nation of 330 Million. As for law order, I think the United States could handle it. The reason corruption and crime is so pervasive is a function of the existing political structures, but also due to the fact Mexico only spends 1.4% of its GDP on law and order; the average in OCED nations is 4.7%. Italy, which had to tackle its own issues in terms of corruption and organized crime, spends 6.2% of its GDP on law enforcement. The U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) found that, per 100,000 people, Mexico had just 6.8 prosecutors and 4.2 judges in 2013. This is compared to Italy with 3.1 prosecutors and 17.1 judges. Adding to this issue is the fact that between 2006 and 2015, the number of Federal police increased from 11,663 to 43,724 but real wages only rose 9%.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 27, 2019 14:55:58 GMT
One thing I've thought quite a bit about is the effect this would have on U.S. foreign policy going into the 1990s. A more Western Hemisphere focused outlook could result in the Americans demurring on the Balkans which, due to the fact Belgrade controlled the old Yugoslav army resources, probably means the Serbs get their "Greater Serbia" achieved:
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Post by lordroel on Oct 27, 2019 15:03:17 GMT
One thing I've thought quite a bit about is the effect this would have on U.S. foreign policy going into the 1990s. A more Western Hemisphere focused outlook could result in the Americans demurring on the Balkans which, due to the fact Belgrade controlled the old Yugoslav army resources, probably means the Serbs get their "Greater Serbia" achieved: A Greater Serbia will not happen all because Mexico is annexed by the United States.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 27, 2019 16:02:57 GMT
One thing I've thought quite a bit about is the effect this would have on U.S. foreign policy going into the 1990s. A more Western Hemisphere focused outlook could result in the Americans demurring on the Balkans which, due to the fact Belgrade controlled the old Yugoslav army resources, probably means the Serbs get their "Greater Serbia" achieved: A Greater Serbia will not happen all because Mexico is annexed by the United States.
I suspect its highly unlikely unless the US was so tied down by trying to sort out Mexico that the Soviets were able to give a lot more support to the Serbs openly and the rather lukewarm interest of the European powers to get involved was as a result totally negated. In that case Europe and the west has far greater problems, such as the millions of refugees fleeing this new Serbian empire and a possibly far more assertive Russia without US support.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 27, 2019 16:30:38 GMT
One thing I've thought quite a bit about is the effect this would have on U.S. foreign policy going into the 1990s. A more Western Hemisphere focused outlook could result in the Americans demurring on the Balkans which, due to the fact Belgrade controlled the old Yugoslav army resources, probably means the Serbs get their "Greater Serbia" achieved: A Greater Serbia will not happen all because Mexico is annexed by the United States. Up until U.S. involvement they were winning, thanks to Belgrade retaining the stocks of the old Yugoslav Army while Croatia, under the same arms embargo as Serbia, was unable to sustain its forces. American involvement was also critical to foraging a European coalition to get involved in the situation in the first place.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 27, 2019 16:37:59 GMT
A Greater Serbia will not happen all because Mexico is annexed by the United States. Up until U.S. involvement they were winning, thanks to Belgrade retaining the stocks of the old Yugoslav Army while Croatia, under the same arms embargo as Serbia, was unable to sustain its forces. American involvement was also critical to foraging a European coalition to get involved in the situation in the first place. Going back to the topic in general, how many senators and congres members would the new states get.
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