stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,841 
Likes: 13,227
|
Post by stevep on Oct 26, 2019 12:53:45 GMT
Not quite clear of your point here? To get a full scale nuclear programme you would need a hell of a lot more facilities than what the Germans had OTL. That means its harder to hide and there's a lot more to hit. Can you imagine the impact of a large raid flattening the Germany atomic pile for instance? Yes a lot of the OTL much smaller German bomb projects, many of which didn't go beyond theoretical ideas may have been underground but that's going to be a lot of work for a huge nuclear programme. Plus if that happens and the Germans are able to construct such facilities without bombing interfering you still have the option of attacking power supplies and transport links to delay things. Once the Germans do have a successful test, which would be very difficult to hide, the allies might even start gas attacks then. Plus once its realised that the Germans have a bomb, especially a miniaturised one then He-117 facilities can also be targeted. Both production and airfields.
Its also likely that in such a scenario the allies don't waste so much effort on highly ineffective carpet bombing campaigns.
That was to make territorial gains and leave the Germans and the western allies still fighting. Also with a hell of a lot of fighting ahead to defeat Germany, for which the Soviets would pay by far the largest share of the resulting butcher's bill. Even if terms had been agreed, and the two sides were a bloody long way apart, and then the western powers later made a peace with the Nazis the latter would be in no real position to threaten Stalin's empire.
Here because of the nukes Germany poses an even greater threat than in 1941. However its also on the verge of collapse. If the Soviets and the western allies continue to fight they will win, especially with massive gas attacks by the western powers. If the Soviets make peace - presumably having to withdraw from occupied German territories and probably a lot else - there is the danger that the western powers might do likewise - albeit in reality this was unlikely. Then how long could Stalin trust Hitlers word before a new attack came, this time with more nukes and with Stalin having burnt his bridges with the western powers? Alternatively the western powers fight on and win. They then get all territory under German control as a result of Stalin's deal and their very pissed off with him.
The US was able to muscle the Soviets out of Iran because they had a nuclear monopoly, a massive industrial base and were far enough away that the Soviets had no opportunity to hurt them directly. For the Nazis they have a nuclear monopoly yes but the other two factors don't apply. Their on the verge of a crushing defeat.
They still have a considerably production capacity and with the farmlands of Ukraine and other areas 'liberated' there would be less need for food imports and other such supplies. Hence a higher proportion of the L-L might well go to armoured vehicles and the like. More to the point however are the massive forces in the field already in Jan 45. Their going to take some stopping even without Germany being devastated by the allied response.
The obstacle to peace isn't Hitler persay. Its that all of the allied leaders know they can't trust the Nazis AT ALL. Or for that matter much of the German military. They won't believe any German claims that if they get peace they will maintain it. Nor will the Germans most likely as they will fear that once one or more of their opponents get nuclear weapons they will attack Germany. [Especially the US which is the nearest to having such a capacity and is secure against German counter strikes.]
The point is that Steinbock didn't work either. Quick check from Wiki again:
In 45 their got less a/c and fewer bases, more distant than targets in Britain. If they try making large scale attacks on Britain, especially once the allies know that the Germans have nukes their going to meet a lot of opposition and while a bomber with a nuke might get through it might also get shot down and the Germans have relatively few bombs.
Yes if they gained surprise again they have a chance of devastating much of Antwerp - although once the allies know about a German nuke attention will be a lot higher and they might not get such a level of supply.
My argument is that the allies, all of them, will see it in their interest to finish the war quickly and have the capacity to do so. Since the Germans have used nukes on urban targets the gloves will be off immediately. As such even if so many things go just 'right' for the Germans so they get such a capacity for production of nuclear weapons small enough to be air delivered its only likely to make the last stage of the war in Europe much bloodier, albeit a bit shorter.
The Allies targeted the V weapons program, which was massive, and completely failed to inflict any meaningful destruction upon it. This is an illustrative example of what one could expect from them attacking the German atomic project, which was already mostly underground anyway IOTL and would be doubly so here. Attacking airfields and what not also isn't going to prevent it, as the Luftwaffe even IOTL was able to conduct mass operations into March of 1945 despite existing efforts by the RAF Bomber Command and the USAAF's 8th Air Force as well as tactical units based out of Western Europe. The He-177s were already on hand and actually were originally slated for Eisenhammer in late 1943/early 1944 when Hitler decided upon Steinbock; here, they just remain on reserve, or at least a good portion of them with trained crews. Speaking of Steinbock, the operation showed that even against densely packed AA defenses contained with the UK, the Luftwaffe could and still did operate successfully, as demonstrated by the fact they were able to maintain it for four months before losses compelled its end. Even for the Germans, however, is that the operational constraints that led to the failure of it won't exist here; you've got the limited objective of bombing a city once instead of attempting terror bombings with no set end goal. Even better, atomics don't require follow up raids.
As you yourself said at the start the V2 project is going to be a lot smaller than a nuclear weapons one. Its also going to get a lot more attention and especially when the outer defenses collapse with the breakout from Normandy and the liberation of most of France. Your going to further increase the burden on the rest of the German economy by seeking to make completely underground a far, far more massive operation than what the Germans had OTL. What else are they going to give up to afford this.
What mass operation by the Luftwaffe into March 45? You mentioned the failed Bodenplatte operation but that was at the start of Jan 45 and cost the Germans heavily.
Its true that if the Luftwaffe tried bombing London they have a chance of getting through. Albeit that they have a very limited number of warheads and they might not succeed in any single attack. Also if London isn't hit in the 1st round of targets, which used up most of the stockpile you suggested the Nazis would have built up their not going to have much choice before the German economy completely collapses under the resultant counter strikes.
|
|
|
|
Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 31, 2019 20:48:35 GMT
The Allies targeted the V weapons program, which was massive, and completely failed to inflict any meaningful destruction upon it. This is an illustrative example of what one could expect from them attacking the German atomic project, which was already mostly underground anyway IOTL and would be doubly so here. Attacking airfields and what not also isn't going to prevent it, as the Luftwaffe even IOTL was able to conduct mass operations into March of 1945 despite existing efforts by the RAF Bomber Command and the USAAF's 8th Air Force as well as tactical units based out of Western Europe. The He-177s were already on hand and actually were originally slated for Eisenhammer in late 1943/early 1944 when Hitler decided upon Steinbock; here, they just remain on reserve, or at least a good portion of them with trained crews. Speaking of Steinbock, the operation showed that even against densely packed AA defenses contained with the UK, the Luftwaffe could and still did operate successfully, as demonstrated by the fact they were able to maintain it for four months before losses compelled its end. Even for the Germans, however, is that the operational constraints that led to the failure of it won't exist here; you've got the limited objective of bombing a city once instead of attempting terror bombings with no set end goal. Even better, atomics don't require follow up raids.
As you yourself said at the start the V2 project is going to be a lot smaller than a nuclear weapons one. Its also going to get a lot more attention and especially when the outer defenses collapse with the breakout from Normandy and the liberation of most of France. Your going to further increase the burden on the rest of the German economy by seeking to make completely underground a far, far more massive operation than what the Germans had OTL. What else are they going to give up to afford this.
What mass operation by the Luftwaffe into March 45? You mentioned the failed Bodenplatte operation but that was at the start of Jan 45 and cost the Germans heavily.
Its true that if the Luftwaffe tried bombing London they have a chance of getting through. Albeit that they have a very limited number of warheads and they might not succeed in any single attack. Also if London isn't hit in the 1st round of targets, which used up most of the stockpile you suggested the Nazis would have built up their not going to have much choice before the German economy completely collapses under the resultant counter strikes.
The V-2 Project was about a fourth the size, in terms of cost, of the American nuclear effort. As demonstrated by said project, dispersal efforts and building underground allowed them to avoid any serious delays from Allied bombing; I see no reason to assume the same for the German atomic effort, which IOTL was already largely underground. As for the Luftwaffe, into February they were able to secure air superiority over Poland and Hungary, doing so again in Hungary in support of Operation Spring Awakening. Likewise, in early April they made a serious attempt to contest the skies over the Reich in what Adolf Galland dubbed "The Great Blow" in that they launched several hundred to about 1,000 planes in a one day operation in an attempt to inflict serious losses upon the American bomber force. It failed, but all of these together show that even unto the end the Luftwaffe could, on occasion, mount serious, strategic operations in a limited time span. Given that the nature of nuclear weapons ensures the lack of need to do follow up attacks if successfully conducted, that's major. As for German targets, I'm assuming they'll stick to those on the continent in the short term. Even Hitler was able to grasp the significance of taking Antwerp over attack, for example, Paris. |
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 68,003
Likes: 49,404
|
Post by lordroel on Oct 31, 2019 20:50:00 GMT
As you yourself said at the start the V2 project is going to be a lot smaller than a nuclear weapons one. Its also going to get a lot more attention and especially when the outer defenses collapse with the breakout from Normandy and the liberation of most of France. Your going to further increase the burden on the rest of the German economy by seeking to make completely underground a far, far more massive operation than what the Germans had OTL. What else are they going to give up to afford this. What mass operation by the Luftwaffe into March 45? You mentioned the failed Bodenplatte operation but that was at the start of Jan 45 and cost the Germans heavily.
Its true that if the Luftwaffe tried bombing London they have a chance of getting through. Albeit that they have a very limited number of warheads and they might not succeed in any single attack. Also if London isn't hit in the 1st round of targets, which used up most of the stockpile you suggested the Nazis would have built up their not going to have much choice before the German economy completely collapses under the resultant counter strikes.
The V-2 Project was about a fourth the size, in terms of cost, of the American nuclear effort. As demonstrated by said project, dispersal efforts and building underground allowed them to avoid any serious delays from Allied bombing; I see no reason to assume the same for the German atomic effort, which IOTL was already largely underground. As for the Luftwaffe, into February they were able to secure air superiority over Poland and Hungary, doing so again in Hungary in support of Operation Spring Awakening. Likewise, in early April they made a serious attempt to contest the skies over the Reich in what Adolf Galland dubbed "The Great Blow" in that they launched several hundred to about 1,000 planes in a one day operation in an attempt to inflict serious losses upon the American bomber force. It failed, but all of these together show that even unto the end the Luftwaffe could, on occasion, mount serious, strategic operations in a limited time span. Given that the nature of nuclear weapons ensures the lack of need to do follow up attacks if successfully conducted, that's major. As for German targets, I'm assuming they'll stick to those on the continent in the short term. Even Hitler was able to grasp the significance of taking Antwerp over attack, for example, Paris. In 1944 i would think that Antwerp is a better choice than Paris. |
|
|
|
Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 31, 2019 21:20:19 GMT
The V-2 Project was about a fourth the size, in terms of cost, of the American nuclear effort. As demonstrated by said project, dispersal efforts and building underground allowed them to avoid any serious delays from Allied bombing; I see no reason to assume the same for the German atomic effort, which IOTL was already largely underground. As for the Luftwaffe, into February they were able to secure air superiority over Poland and Hungary, doing so again in Hungary in support of Operation Spring Awakening. Likewise, in early April they made a serious attempt to contest the skies over the Reich in what Adolf Galland dubbed "The Great Blow" in that they launched several hundred to about 1,000 planes in a one day operation in an attempt to inflict serious losses upon the American bomber force. It failed, but all of these together show that even unto the end the Luftwaffe could, on occasion, mount serious, strategic operations in a limited time span. Given that the nature of nuclear weapons ensures the lack of need to do follow up attacks if successfully conducted, that's major. As for German targets, I'm assuming they'll stick to those on the continent in the short term. Even Hitler was able to grasp the significance of taking Antwerp over attack, for example, Paris. In 1944 i would think that Antwerp is a better choice than Paris. That’s what I meant. |
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 68,003
Likes: 49,404
|
Post by lordroel on Oct 31, 2019 21:24:38 GMT
In 1944 i would think that Antwerp is a better choice than Paris. That’s what I meant. As in my eyes it is worth more a military target as it is a major hub for the Allies then Paris which is a major city but losing it will not result in the Allies surrendering. |
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,841
Likes: 13,227
|
Post by stevep on Nov 1, 2019 10:41:29 GMT
As you yourself said at the start the V2 project is going to be a lot smaller than a nuclear weapons one. Its also going to get a lot more attention and especially when the outer defenses collapse with the breakout from Normandy and the liberation of most of France. Your going to further increase the burden on the rest of the German economy by seeking to make completely underground a far, far more massive operation than what the Germans had OTL. What else are they going to give up to afford this.
What mass operation by the Luftwaffe into March 45? You mentioned the failed Bodenplatte operation but that was at the start of Jan 45 and cost the Germans heavily.
Its true that if the Luftwaffe tried bombing London they have a chance of getting through. Albeit that they have a very limited number of warheads and they might not succeed in any single attack. Also if London isn't hit in the 1st round of targets, which used up most of the stockpile you suggested the Nazis would have built up their not going to have much choice before the German economy completely collapses under the resultant counter strikes.
The V-2 Project was about a fourth the size, in terms of cost, of the American nuclear effort. As demonstrated by said project, dispersal efforts and building underground allowed them to avoid any serious delays from Allied bombing; I see no reason to assume the same for the German atomic effort, which IOTL was already largely underground. As for the Luftwaffe, into February they were able to secure air superiority over Poland and Hungary, doing so again in Hungary in support of Operation Spring Awakening. Likewise, in early April they made a serious attempt to contest the skies over the Reich in what Adolf Galland dubbed "The Great Blow" in that they launched several hundred to about 1,000 planes in a one day operation in an attempt to inflict serious losses upon the American bomber force. It failed, but all of these together show that even unto the end the Luftwaffe could, on occasion, mount serious, strategic operations in a limited time span. Given that the nature of nuclear weapons ensures the lack of need to do follow up attacks if successfully conducted, that's major. As for German targets, I'm assuming they'll stick to those on the continent in the short term. Even Hitler was able to grasp the significance of taking Antwerp over attack, for example, Paris.
If about 4 times the size it will need something like 4 times the resources as well as a lot more facilities. Putting all of that underground is going to be a huge project and will drain resources from elsewhere. Also even if everything is so far underground that even attacks with weapons like the earthquake bomb have no impact on such facilities your still going to have the potential for attacks on transport and power links for instance. Plus there is one other obvious target in terms of production facilities and bases for the He177. I'm accepting the dubious idea of the Nazis getting a bomb under those circumstances but their going to have a sizeable opportunity cost in doing so.
Being able to make brief challenges in the east with largely poorly trained pilots isn't winning air superiority. I assumed in my earlier posts that despite being heavily outnumbered and in the west at least greatly outclassed I'm assuming virtually all the bombs get through despite this.
I've also assumed that they would make their initial attacks on continental targets. [Albeit that given Hitler's character he might try Antwerp and Paris, remembering he wanted the city to be destroyed rather than being liberated]. However once the allied counter attack starts and large areas of urban/industrial Germany are being gassed if they can get another bomb or two before the end their likely to try for a revenge target like part of London. Hopefully the German economy and war machine will really collapse before that point but its a possibility.
|
|
|
|
Post by EwellHolmes on Nov 17, 2019 23:18:47 GMT
The V-2 Project was about a fourth the size, in terms of cost, of the American nuclear effort. As demonstrated by said project, dispersal efforts and building underground allowed them to avoid any serious delays from Allied bombing; I see no reason to assume the same for the German atomic effort, which IOTL was already largely underground. As for the Luftwaffe, into February they were able to secure air superiority over Poland and Hungary, doing so again in Hungary in support of Operation Spring Awakening. Likewise, in early April they made a serious attempt to contest the skies over the Reich in what Adolf Galland dubbed "The Great Blow" in that they launched several hundred to about 1,000 planes in a one day operation in an attempt to inflict serious losses upon the American bomber force. It failed, but all of these together show that even unto the end the Luftwaffe could, on occasion, mount serious, strategic operations in a limited time span. Given that the nature of nuclear weapons ensures the lack of need to do follow up attacks if successfully conducted, that's major. As for German targets, I'm assuming they'll stick to those on the continent in the short term. Even Hitler was able to grasp the significance of taking Antwerp over attack, for example, Paris.
If about 4 times the size it will need something like 4 times the resources as well as a lot more facilities. Putting all of that underground is going to be a huge project and will drain resources from elsewhere. Also even if everything is so far underground that even attacks with weapons like the earthquake bomb have no impact on such facilities your still going to have the potential for attacks on transport and power links for instance. Plus there is one other obvious target in terms of production facilities and bases for the He177. I'm accepting the dubious idea of the Nazis getting a bomb under those circumstances but their going to have a sizeable opportunity cost in doing so.
Being able to make brief challenges in the east with largely poorly trained pilots isn't winning air superiority. I assumed in my earlier posts that despite being heavily outnumbered and in the west at least greatly outclassed I'm assuming virtually all the bombs get through despite this.
I've also assumed that they would make their initial attacks on continental targets. [Albeit that given Hitler's character he might try Antwerp and Paris, remembering he wanted the city to be destroyed rather than being liberated]. However once the allied counter attack starts and large areas of urban/industrial Germany are being gassed if they can get another bomb or two before the end their likely to try for a revenge target like part of London. Hopefully the German economy and war machine will really collapse before that point but its a possibility.
As I've said, scale doesn't translate into danger necessarily; IOTL, even direct attacks by the Allies on the German atomic project failed to have any real effect, it was only attack on the inputs (like heavy water) that did so. Likewise, the V-2 Project and other like attacks, such as the steel industry or aircraft, show that mass strategic bombing in of itself wasn't a pancea or a means of destroying the program. Still, it could cause delays which is why I extended out the time to a German bomb by almost a year as compared to OTL for the American one. Also, just as a general note, you're actually safer underground during an earthquake than on top. As for the Germans and their ability to get bombs on targets, they demonstrated that ability repeatedly even into 1945. Atomic weapons don't require return bombings, unlike conventional weapons, and thus the Germans only need to hit a target once for it be a successful strike. Bodenplatte and the month long period of air superiority in the East in February of 1945 gives the Luftwaffe the time to get weapons on target. |
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,841
Likes: 13,227
|
Post by stevep on Nov 18, 2019 11:39:53 GMT
If about 4 times the size it will need something like 4 times the resources as well as a lot more facilities. Putting all of that underground is going to be a huge project and will drain resources from elsewhere. Also even if everything is so far underground that even attacks with weapons like the earthquake bomb have no impact on such facilities your still going to have the potential for attacks on transport and power links for instance. Plus there is one other obvious target in terms of production facilities and bases for the He177. I'm accepting the dubious idea of the Nazis getting a bomb under those circumstances but their going to have a sizeable opportunity cost in doing so.
Being able to make brief challenges in the east with largely poorly trained pilots isn't winning air superiority. I assumed in my earlier posts that despite being heavily outnumbered and in the west at least greatly outclassed I'm assuming virtually all the bombs get through despite this.
I've also assumed that they would make their initial attacks on continental targets. [Albeit that given Hitler's character he might try Antwerp and Paris, remembering he wanted the city to be destroyed rather than being liberated]. However once the allied counter attack starts and large areas of urban/industrial Germany are being gassed if they can get another bomb or two before the end their likely to try for a revenge target like part of London. Hopefully the German economy and war machine will really collapse before that point but its a possibility.
As I've said, scale doesn't translate into danger necessarily; IOTL, even direct attacks by the Allies on the German atomic project failed to have any real effect, it was only attack on the inputs (like heavy water) that did so. Likewise, the V-2 Project and other like attacks, such as the steel industry or aircraft, show that mass strategic bombing in of itself wasn't a pancea or a means of destroying the program. Still, it could cause delays which is why I extended out the time to a German bomb by almost a year as compared to OTL for the American one. Also, just as a general note, you're actually safer underground during an earthquake than on top. As for the Germans and their ability to get bombs on targets, they demonstrated that ability repeatedly even into 1945. Atomic weapons don't require return bombings, unlike conventional weapons, and thus the Germans only need to hit a target once for it be a successful strike. Bodenplatte and the month long period of air superiority in the East in February of 1945 gives the Luftwaffe the time to get weapons on target.
Scale gives more targets and related infrastructure that can be hit and affecting developing. Mass strategic bombing, in terms of the carpet bombing approach, was definitely ineffective until the final stages of the war when the allies reached the region of the German border, overrunning much of the air defence infrastructure. Which of course is happening as this stage. You may be better off deep underground but if the very heavy bombs destroy or damage entrances and road/rail links, as well as some crucial targets, such as power centres and key aqueducts - the latter being finally targeted in the last months - you can really hamper development. This assumes of course that the allies wait until a bomb is used against them, rather than a German test, before starting chemical attacks.
Actually you have advanced it considerably compared to the much greater resourced allied one and allowed them to develop more advanced and hence markedly smaller designs than the allies had for a couple of years.
They could make brief attacks on air bases near the front, albeit with considerable losses, as Bodenplatte shows. This might allow hits on targets like Brussels and Marsailles although most/all of any escorts for the bomber are likely to be lost as well as the delivering a/c itself. Not going to have escorts for an attack on Moscow, possibly for Leningrad if they can operate from the Baltic states pocket.
It all still doesn't alter the basic facts that the Nazis will go down, albeit with a much bloodier death toll and almost certainly harsher terms for Germany as a result. By this time all three major allied powers realise that Nazi Germany is not an acceptable neighbour simply because it can be trusted to act like a rabid dog. And that this goes in spades for such a state with a nuclear monopoly.
|
|
|
|
Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Nov 30, 2019 9:44:29 GMT
I'm going to ignore the logistical and ideological (the Nazis considered nuclear physics to be ”Jewish”) problems with a German nuclear bomb and instead pretend that they get a 15kt bomb (the same size as Hiroshima) and manage to drop it on a city in the southeast of England.
Nukemap says:
Maidstone - city destroyed, 14,410 fatalities, 21,100 injuries
Tunbridge Wells - about the same number of deaths, 17,670 injuries, Tunbridge Wells destroyed and Maidstone hit by fallout (which would likely cause another 3-4 thousand deaths)
Dungeness - no real damage apart from anti-aircraft being taken out
Canterbury - 12,000 deaths and 14,000 injuries, fallout could hit Thanet
Brighton - 20,000 deaths and 36,000 injuries, fallout could hit London
Dartford - 13,500 deaths and 21,000 injuries, fallout hits London (roughy the same for Tilbury)
London - 31,000 deaths and 100,000 injuries, Westminster destroyed.
Let's pretend the Nazis drop a bomb and it hits Westminster (worst case scenario).
The results are likely going to be:
A very dead Winston Churchill, cabinet and opposition
The only surviving officials being in the armed forces
Said armed forces men being VERY pissed off and using Operation Vegetarian (dropping anthrax on Germany to kill off livestock)
Germany surrendering due to famine, Hitler tried and hanged
Iron Curtain pushed further east, at least to the Vistula
*Maybe* another bomb on Russia
Europe looking like a hellscape, AANW becomes true in some respects.
Nazis + nukes =/= fun.
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 68,003
Likes: 49,404
|
Post by lordroel on Nov 30, 2019 10:06:44 GMT
I'm going to ignore the logistical and ideological (the Nazis considered nuclear physics to be ”Jewish”) problems with a German nuclear bomb and instead pretend that they get a 15kt bomb (the same size as Hiroshima) and manage to drop it on a city in the southeast of England. Nukemap says: Maidstone - city destroyed, 14,410 fatalities, 21,100 injuries Tunbridge Wells - about the same number of deaths, 17,670 injuries, Tunbridge Wells destroyed and Maidstone hit by fallout (which would likely cause another 3-4 thousand deaths) Dungeness - no real damage apart from anti-aircraft being taken out Canterbury - 12,000 deaths and 14,000 injuries, fallout could hit Thanet Brighton - 20,000 deaths and 36,000 injuries, fallout could hit London Dartford - 13,500 deaths and 21,000 injuries, fallout hits London (roughy the same for Tilbury) London - 31,000 deaths and 100,000 injuries, Westminster destroyed. Let's pretend the Nazis drop a bomb and it hits Westminster (worst case scenario). The results are likely going to be: A very dead Winston Churchill, cabinet and opposition The only surviving officials being in the armed forces Said armed forces men being VERY pissed off and using Operation Vegetarian (dropping anthrax on Germany to kill off livestock) Germany surrendering due to famine, Hitler tried and hanged Iron Curtain pushed further east, at least to the Vistula *Maybe* another bomb on Russia Europe looking like a hellscape, AANW becomes true in some respects. Nazis + nukes =/= fun. I doubt Hitler is going to be a person who will be captured alive. More likely not AANW as i doubt the Allies will have a bomb ready in 1944, but most likely only in 1945. |
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,841
Likes: 13,227
|
Post by stevep on Nov 30, 2019 14:00:52 GMT
I'm going to ignore the logistical and ideological (the Nazis considered nuclear physics to be ”Jewish”) problems with a German nuclear bomb and instead pretend that they get a 15kt bomb (the same size as Hiroshima) and manage to drop it on a city in the southeast of England. Nukemap says: Maidstone - city destroyed, 14,410 fatalities, 21,100 injuries Tunbridge Wells - about the same number of deaths, 17,670 injuries, Tunbridge Wells destroyed and Maidstone hit by fallout (which would likely cause another 3-4 thousand deaths) Dungeness - no real damage apart from anti-aircraft being taken out Canterbury - 12,000 deaths and 14,000 injuries, fallout could hit Thanet Brighton - 20,000 deaths and 36,000 injuries, fallout could hit London Dartford - 13,500 deaths and 21,000 injuries, fallout hits London (roughy the same for Tilbury) London - 31,000 deaths and 100,000 injuries, Westminster destroyed. Let's pretend the Nazis drop a bomb and it hits Westminster (worst case scenario). The results are likely going to be: A very dead Winston Churchill, cabinet and opposition The only surviving officials being in the armed forces Said armed forces men being VERY pissed off and using Operation Vegetarian (dropping anthrax on Germany to kill off livestock) Germany surrendering due to famine, Hitler tried and hanged Iron Curtain pushed further east, at least to the Vistula *Maybe* another bomb on Russia Europe looking like a hellscape, AANW becomes true in some respects. Nazis + nukes =/= fun.
Definitely agree the last bit. Not sure the partition line would be that much further east as the Soviets had reached the Visula by ~Oct 44 and unless there are a number of hits and their as lethal to the Soviet economy as epichistory assumes their going to get at least as far west as OTL. [Assuming as he did a German 1st use in Jan 45] With Britain in turmoil and if Vegetarian was widely used there might be a reluctance to push troops into the infected areas until they surrender. Not sure if they would use germ warfare at this stage but definitely a hell of a lot of chemicals as well as conventional explosives.
|
|
|
|
Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Dec 1, 2019 10:00:40 GMT
I'm going to ignore the logistical and ideological (the Nazis considered nuclear physics to be ”Jewish”) problems with a German nuclear bomb and instead pretend that they get a 15kt bomb (the same size as Hiroshima) and manage to drop it on a city in the southeast of England. Nukemap says: Maidstone - city destroyed, 14,410 fatalities, 21,100 injuries Tunbridge Wells - about the same number of deaths, 17,670 injuries, Tunbridge Wells destroyed and Maidstone hit by fallout (which would likely cause another 3-4 thousand deaths) Dungeness - no real damage apart from anti-aircraft being taken out Canterbury - 12,000 deaths and 14,000 injuries, fallout could hit Thanet Brighton - 20,000 deaths and 36,000 injuries, fallout could hit London Dartford - 13,500 deaths and 21,000 injuries, fallout hits London (roughy the same for Tilbury) London - 31,000 deaths and 100,000 injuries, Westminster destroyed. Let's pretend the Nazis drop a bomb and it hits Westminster (worst case scenario). The results are likely going to be: A very dead Winston Churchill, cabinet and opposition The only surviving officials being in the armed forces Said armed forces men being VERY pissed off and using Operation Vegetarian (dropping anthrax on Germany to kill off livestock) Germany surrendering due to famine, Hitler tried and hanged Iron Curtain pushed further east, at least to the Vistula *Maybe* another bomb on Russia Europe looking like a hellscape, AANW becomes true in some respects. Nazis + nukes =/= fun.
Definitely agree the last bit. Not sure the partition line would be that much further east as the Soviets had reached the Visula by ~Oct 44 and unless there are a number of hits and their as lethal to the Soviet economy as epichistory assumes their going to get at least as far west as OTL. [Assuming as he did a German 1st use in Jan 45] With Britain in turmoil and if Vegetarian was widely used there might be a reluctance to push troops into the infected areas until they surrender. Not sure if they would use germ warfare at this stage but definitely a hell of a lot of chemicals as well as conventional explosives.
The thing is that Hitler will likely get another bomb of that size ready in 2-3 days and manage to nuke Leningrad whilst us and the Americans are all wondering what happened - the gov'ts of exile of most of Europe now no longer exist and Britain is under a military junta. Of course, there are several other options: 1) The bomb fails and Hitler concludes it to be a plot by Jewish spies or some such rubbish, war proceeds as OTL with more purges of scientists. 2) The pilots aren't told about the contents of the plane, are found by the RAF and drop them in some Kent farmland to get away quicker. 3) The same but for a smaller town (of these, I think Maidstone would have been the worst). 4) The plane's shot down and crashes into the North Sea. 5) Hitler decides to drop it on Leningrad or Moscow instead. |
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 68,003
Likes: 49,404
|
Post by lordroel on Dec 1, 2019 10:04:44 GMT
Definitely agree the last bit. Not sure the partition line would be that much further east as the Soviets had reached the Visula by ~Oct 44 and unless there are a number of hits and their as lethal to the Soviet economy as epichistory assumes their going to get at least as far west as OTL. [Assuming as he did a German 1st use in Jan 45] With Britain in turmoil and if Vegetarian was widely used there might be a reluctance to push troops into the infected areas until they surrender. Not sure if they would use germ warfare at this stage but definitely a hell of a lot of chemicals as well as conventional explosives.
The thing is that Hitler will likely get another bomb of that size ready in 2-3 days and manage to nuke Leningrad whilst us and the Americans are all wondering what happened - the gov'ts of exile of most of Europe now no longer exist and Britain is under a military junta. Of course, there are several other options: 1) The bomb fails and Hitler concludes it to be a plot by Jewish spies or some such rubbish, war proceeds as OTL with more purges of scientists. 2) The pilots aren't told about the contents of the plane, are found by the RAF and drop them in some Kent farmland to get away quicker. 3) The same but for a smaller town (of these, I think Maidstone would have been the worst). 4) The plane's shot down and crashes into the North Sea. 5) Hitler decides to drop it on Leningrad or Moscow instead. While the queen of the Netherlands would be killed in Londen, here daughter the crown princess is in Canada and will be the next queen of the Netherlands. |
|
|
|
Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Dec 1, 2019 10:06:11 GMT
The thing is that Hitler will likely get another bomb of that size ready in 2-3 days and manage to nuke Leningrad whilst us and the Americans are all wondering what happened - the gov'ts of exile of most of Europe now no longer exist and Britain is under a military junta. Of course, there are several other options: 1) The bomb fails and Hitler concludes it to be a plot by Jewish spies or some such rubbish, war proceeds as OTL with more purges of scientists. 2) The pilots aren't told about the contents of the plane, are found by the RAF and drop them in some Kent farmland to get away quicker. 3) The same but for a smaller town (of these, I think Maidstone would have been the worst). 4) The plane's shot down and crashes into the North Sea. 5) Hitler decides to drop it on Leningrad or Moscow instead. While the queen of the Netherlands would be killed in Londen, here daughter the crown princess is in Canada and will be the next queen of the Netherlands. Didn't know that. Still, that upheaval isn't good for Holland at this time in the way - Hongerwinter, nuclear bombs and a change of Queen aren't a good combination. |
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 68,003
Likes: 49,404
|
Post by lordroel on Dec 1, 2019 10:20:13 GMT
While the queen of the Netherlands would be killed in Londen, here daughter the crown princess is in Canada and will be the next queen of the Netherlands. Didn't know that. Still, that upheaval isn't good for Holland at this time in the way - Hongerwinter, nuclear bombs and a change of Queen aren't a good combination. So who is going to be the next king ore queen of the United Kingdom, must be out of Londen and in the line of succession. |
|
