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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 19, 2019 19:40:30 GMT
May 1, 1939 - Francis Penin in Paris publishes a calculation of the minimum mass of natural uranium for a chain reaction: 40 tons of uranium oxide, possibly reducible to 12 tons with a neutron reflector. In a paper two weeks later he concludes that a slow-neutron chain reaction will require only 5 tons.
May, 1939 - Paul Harteck, of the German atomic effort, stumbles upon Perrin's article and shares the information with Dr. Heisenberg; working together, they are able to refine the critical mass theory, leading to the realization that 10 kilograms of U235 or less is needed to produce a bomb. Perhaps just as critical is the adoption of the neutron reflector, a critical safety element in the future project.
September, 1939 - Dr. Heisenberg's first report to the German Army's ordnance bureau is submitted, outlining the possibility of the Atomic Bomb. It immediately raises interest, due to the bomb appearing far more likely based on the Harteck-Heisenberg calculations. The need to consider a moderator leads to the Army making the funds available to test for such.
February, 1940 - Walther Bothe and Peter Jensen at Heidelberg are able to confirm that ultra pure graphite can be used as a moderator. With this confirmation, intensive funding and research begins.
A unified program is ordered, combing the previously separate atomic projects in Germany into one. Due to funding requirements, the V-2 missile project is ultimately cancelled.
Summer, 1940 - Fritz Houtermans, a German nuclear scientist, produces the research needed to make the plutonium-bomb design possible.
August, 1941 - The first German reactor, a "pile design", comes online near Dresden, in Saxony.
Spring, 1942 - Reinhard Heydrich, in control of Nazi-occupied Bohemia, uses slave labor to open the first uranium mines within his domains in order to supply the materials needed for the German project.
Fall, 1943 - Funding issues and Allied bomber attacks contribute to delays in the German program.
Spring, 1944 - Operation Steinbock, a plan to conduct a mass bombing of England, is cancelled upon the reluctant orders of Adolf Hitler to do so, in order to retain trained crews and bombers for use in an expected future "atomic offensive".
October, 1944 - First German atomic bomb is constructed and tested near Rügen, a German island in the Baltic. The successful test results in an immediate order to begin increased production of the weapons.
January, 1945 - With enough weapons ready, the Luftwaffe is ordered to commence the first mass atomic attack in history, in support of Operation Nordlicht in Alsace-Lorraine and Operation Konrad in Hungary. Operation Eisenhammer, a long planned conventional attack that has been consistently delayed since 1943, is also authorized using bases in East Prussia but with the new atomic weapons instead of normal explosives.
___
So what do you think happens next? What are the short to long term outcomes of this? Personally, I think it's sufficient to win a compromise peace for the Reich.
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lordroel
Administrator
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Post by lordroel on Oct 19, 2019 19:43:15 GMT
May 1, 1939 - Francis Penin in Paris publishes a calculation of the minimum mass of natural uranium for a chain reaction: 40 tons of uranium oxide, possibly reducible to 12 tons with a neutron reflector. In a paper two weeks later he concludes that a slow-neutron chain reaction will require only 5 tons. May, 1939 - Paul Harteck, of the German atomic effort, stumbles upon Perrin's article and shares the information with Dr. Heisenberg; working together, they are able to refine the critical mass theory, leading to the realization that 10 kilograms of U235 or less is needed to produce a bomb. Perhaps just as critical is the adoption of the neutron reflector, a critical safety element in the future project. September, 1939 - Dr. Heisenberg's first report to the German Army's ordnance bureau is submitted, outlining the possibility of the Atomic Bomb. It immediately raises interest, due to the bomb appearing far more likely based on the Harteck-Heisenberg calculations. The need to consider a moderator leads to the Army making the funds available to test for such. February, 1940 - Walther Bothe and Peter Jensen at Heidelberg are able to confirm that ultra pure graphite can be used as a moderator. With this confirmation, intensive funding and research begins. A unified program is ordered, combing the previously separate atomic projects in Germany into one. Due to funding requirements, the V-2 missile project is ultimately cancelled. Summer, 1940 - Fritz Houtermans, a German nuclear scientist, produces the research needed to make the plutonium-bomb design possible. August, 1941 - The first German reactor, a "pile design", comes online near Dresden, in Saxony. Spring, 1942 - Reinhard Heydrich, in control of Nazi-occupied Bohemia, uses slave labor to open the first uranium mines within his domains in order to supply the materials needed for the German project. Fall, 1943 - Funding issues and Allied bomber attacks contribute to delays in the German program. Spring, 1944 - Operation Steinbock, a plan to conduct a mass bombing of England, is cancelled upon the reluctant orders of Adolf Hitler to do so, in order to retain trained crews and bombers for use in an expected future "atomic offensive". October, 1944 - First German atomic bomb is constructed and tested near Rügen, a German island in the Baltic. The successful test results in an immediate order to begin increased production of the weapons. January, 1944 - With enough weapons ready, the Luftwaffe is ordered to commence the first mass atomic attack in history, in support of Operation Nordlicht in Alsace-Lorraine and Operation Konrad in Hungary. Operation Eisenhammer, a long planned conventional attack that has been consistently delayed since 1943, is also authorized using bases in East Prussia but with the new atomic weapons instead of normal explosives. ___ So what do you think happens next? What are the short to long term outcomes of this? Personally, I think it's sufficient to win a compromise peace for the Reich. What German bomber would drop it. |
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 19, 2019 19:45:49 GMT
May 1, 1939 - Francis Penin in Paris publishes a calculation of the minimum mass of natural uranium for a chain reaction: 40 tons of uranium oxide, possibly reducible to 12 tons with a neutron reflector. In a paper two weeks later he concludes that a slow-neutron chain reaction will require only 5 tons. May, 1939 - Paul Harteck, of the German atomic effort, stumbles upon Perrin's article and shares the information with Dr. Heisenberg; working together, they are able to refine the critical mass theory, leading to the realization that 10 kilograms of U235 or less is needed to produce a bomb. Perhaps just as critical is the adoption of the neutron reflector, a critical safety element in the future project. September, 1939 - Dr. Heisenberg's first report to the German Army's ordnance bureau is submitted, outlining the possibility of the Atomic Bomb. It immediately raises interest, due to the bomb appearing far more likely based on the Harteck-Heisenberg calculations. The need to consider a moderator leads to the Army making the funds available to test for such. February, 1940 - Walther Bothe and Peter Jensen at Heidelberg are able to confirm that ultra pure graphite can be used as a moderator. With this confirmation, intensive funding and research begins. A unified program is ordered, combing the previously separate atomic projects in Germany into one. Due to funding requirements, the V-2 missile project is ultimately cancelled. Summer, 1940 - Fritz Houtermans, a German nuclear scientist, produces the research needed to make the plutonium-bomb design possible. August, 1941 - The first German reactor, a "pile design", comes online near Dresden, in Saxony. Spring, 1942 - Reinhard Heydrich, in control of Nazi-occupied Bohemia, uses slave labor to open the first uranium mines within his domains in order to supply the materials needed for the German project. Fall, 1943 - Funding issues and Allied bomber attacks contribute to delays in the German program. Spring, 1944 - Operation Steinbock, a plan to conduct a mass bombing of England, is cancelled upon the reluctant orders of Adolf Hitler to do so, in order to retain trained crews and bombers for use in an expected future "atomic offensive". October, 1944 - First German atomic bomb is constructed and tested near Rügen, a German island in the Baltic. The successful test results in an immediate order to begin increased production of the weapons. January, 1944 - With enough weapons ready, the Luftwaffe is ordered to commence the first mass atomic attack in history, in support of Operation Nordlicht in Alsace-Lorraine and Operation Konrad in Hungary. Operation Eisenhammer, a long planned conventional attack that has been consistently delayed since 1943, is also authorized using bases in East Prussia but with the new atomic weapons instead of normal explosives. ___ So what do you think happens next? What are the short to long term outcomes of this? Personally, I think it's sufficient to win a compromise peace for the Reich. What German bomber would drop it. HE-177 was capable of carrying a payload of that weight, and the Luftwaffe had modified a few by 1945 that could carry an atomic bomb-like obkect. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 19, 2019 20:09:09 GMT
What German bomber would drop it. HE-177 was capable of carrying a payload of that weight, and the Luftwaffe had modified a few by 1945 that could carry an atomic bomb-like obkect. Had to some digging, but it seems i made once a article about it on the forum called: What if: Germany had nuclear weapons World War II? |
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 20, 2019 3:30:13 GMT
HE-177 was capable of carrying a payload of that weight, and the Luftwaffe had modified a few by 1945 that could carry an atomic bomb-like obkect. Had to some digging, but it seems i made once a article about it on the forum called: What if: Germany had nuclear weapons World War II?interesting, although obviously I disagree with the conclusions. He-177s based out of East Prussia could hit Moscow and Leningrad, which decimate Soviet production as well as C&C. Antwerp and Marseillaise on the Western Front would cripple the logistics of the Anglo-Americans, grinding their armies to a complete halt on the German border for months, if not a year. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 20, 2019 11:20:35 GMT
May 1, 1939 - Francis Penin in Paris publishes a calculation of the minimum mass of natural uranium for a chain reaction: 40 tons of uranium oxide, possibly reducible to 12 tons with a neutron reflector. In a paper two weeks later he concludes that a slow-neutron chain reaction will require only 5 tons. May, 1939 - Paul Harteck, of the German atomic effort, stumbles upon Perrin's article and shares the information with Dr. Heisenberg; working together, they are able to refine the critical mass theory, leading to the realization that 10 kilograms of U235 or less is needed to produce a bomb. Perhaps just as critical is the adoption of the neutron reflector, a critical safety element in the future project. September, 1939 - Dr. Heisenberg's first report to the German Army's ordnance bureau is submitted, outlining the possibility of the Atomic Bomb. It immediately raises interest, due to the bomb appearing far more likely based on the Harteck-Heisenberg calculations. The need to consider a moderator leads to the Army making the funds available to test for such. February, 1940 - Walther Bothe and Peter Jensen at Heidelberg are able to confirm that ultra pure graphite can be used as a moderator. With this confirmation, intensive funding and research begins. A unified program is ordered, combing the previously separate atomic projects in Germany into one. Due to funding requirements, the V-2 missile project is ultimately cancelled. Summer, 1940 - Fritz Houtermans, a German nuclear scientist, produces the research needed to make the plutonium-bomb design possible. August, 1941 - The first German reactor, a "pile design", comes online near Dresden, in Saxony. Spring, 1942 - Reinhard Heydrich, in control of Nazi-occupied Bohemia, uses slave labor to open the first uranium mines within his domains in order to supply the materials needed for the German project. Fall, 1943 - Funding issues and Allied bomber attacks contribute to delays in the German program. Spring, 1944 - Operation Steinbock, a plan to conduct a mass bombing of England, is cancelled upon the reluctant orders of Adolf Hitler to do so, in order to retain trained crews and bombers for use in an expected future "atomic offensive". October, 1944 - First German atomic bomb is constructed and tested near Rügen, a German island in the Baltic. The successful test results in an immediate order to begin increased production of the weapons. January, 1944 - With enough weapons ready, the Luftwaffe is ordered to commence the first mass atomic attack in history, in support of Operation Nordlicht in Alsace-Lorraine and Operation Konrad in Hungary. Operation Eisenhammer, a long planned conventional attack that has been consistently delayed since 1943, is also authorized using bases in East Prussia but with the new atomic weapons instead of normal explosives. ___ So what do you think happens next? What are the short to long term outcomes of this? Personally, I think it's sufficient to win a compromise peace for the Reich.
You would need a hell of a lot of things to go right for the Germans, including a fair number of correct decisions being made, which they were notoriously bad at. Getting the resources together would probably need to cancel a lot more than the V2 research as well as overcoming the Nazi opposition to Jewish science. Also Germany has much greater resource limitations than N America even without the attacks that would happen - I know you mention some delay but such a programme would be target No. 1 for the allied heavy bombers and it requires a hell of a lot of complex infrastructure as well as power, both of which likely to be targeted. Also you seem to be referring to the more complex plutonium design rather than a simpler uranium one.
Even if one was available by Jan 45 and the Germans managed the further advances of getting a markedly smaller design that the He-177 then you have a delivery issue. Trying to attack Britain would run into a powerful and advanced air defence system which would be on high alert after the Nazi bomb test. Not to mention that any delivery capacity would be added to the allied target lists. Its possible that a bomber might get through to London but its going to be a hell of a challenge.
If a He-177 could reach Moscow with such a load then a night attack there might be a better option and it could do a fair bit of damage to such a large city but its only going to delay the end. As well as making the Soviets even angrier and more brutal. Better might be attacks on Soviet army concentrations but again it will only delay things. Ditto with attacks on western ground forces but their going to have an even stronger air cover and by Jan 45 a fair number are going to be inside Germany.
Another option, mentioned in the linked article is a suicide sub but that would have to get close to an allied target, very likely a port. Alternatively a land based nuclear mine. However you would need to have enough enemy forces in range to make it effective without it being discovered and disarmed. Plus by this time [Jan 45] the war is increasingly being fought on German soil. The Nazis could well be willing to burn up large chunks of Germany to delay their fall but I'm not sure the German army would be.
The other issue is the allied reaction. A compromise peace will NOT be on. Both because allied victory is so close and because none of the major allied powers would trust a Nazi Germany with a nuclear capacity to do anything other than pause, regroup and start a new wave of attacks. Once they realise that the Germans have a serious nuclear project and especially once a device is actually tested then I can see a number of steps made: a) Even higher priority toward attacking German nuclear infrastructure and aircraft production. By this time the allies are advancing rapidly and overrunning much of the German air defence system so the allied bombers, by both day and night so they can do a hell of a lot of damage. Also with ranges reduced tactical air power can be used against many targets. [Remembering that without a V2 programme the allies are going to be able to have the resources they committed to countering those available.]
b) Also a higher priority towards the allied nuclear programme and delivery system. Possibly they select one instead of the four routes they were following and put everything into that. This may not advance things much as the B-29 would need advancing as well although, while like with the He-177 it would probably be a suicide mission a Lancaster could be modified to deliver such a counter.
c) There is however a much easier allied counter. Politically it might not be used until a German nuclear test, or even until after they have used a warhead in anger but the western allies could use chemical weapons against German targets. This would quickly cripple the German economy and industry as well as inflicting appalling casualties on the German population.
As such if by some combination of flukes Nazi German managed to develop a miniaturised nuclear device it might make the end stages bloodier for all involved but possibly most of all for the Germans and wouldn't change the outcome of the conflict.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 20, 2019 11:50:45 GMT
May 1, 1939 - Francis Penin in Paris publishes a calculation of the minimum mass of natural uranium for a chain reaction: 40 tons of uranium oxide, possibly reducible to 12 tons with a neutron reflector. In a paper two weeks later he concludes that a slow-neutron chain reaction will require only 5 tons. May, 1939 - Paul Harteck, of the German atomic effort, stumbles upon Perrin's article and shares the information with Dr. Heisenberg; working together, they are able to refine the critical mass theory, leading to the realization that 10 kilograms of U235 or less is needed to produce a bomb. Perhaps just as critical is the adoption of the neutron reflector, a critical safety element in the future project. September, 1939 - Dr. Heisenberg's first report to the German Army's ordnance bureau is submitted, outlining the possibility of the Atomic Bomb. It immediately raises interest, due to the bomb appearing far more likely based on the Harteck-Heisenberg calculations. The need to consider a moderator leads to the Army making the funds available to test for such. February, 1940 - Walther Bothe and Peter Jensen at Heidelberg are able to confirm that ultra pure graphite can be used as a moderator. With this confirmation, intensive funding and research begins. A unified program is ordered, combing the previously separate atomic projects in Germany into one. Due to funding requirements, the V-2 missile project is ultimately cancelled. Summer, 1940 - Fritz Houtermans, a German nuclear scientist, produces the research needed to make the plutonium-bomb design possible. August, 1941 - The first German reactor, a "pile design", comes online near Dresden, in Saxony. Spring, 1942 - Reinhard Heydrich, in control of Nazi-occupied Bohemia, uses slave labor to open the first uranium mines within his domains in order to supply the materials needed for the German project. Fall, 1943 - Funding issues and Allied bomber attacks contribute to delays in the German program. Spring, 1944 - Operation Steinbock, a plan to conduct a mass bombing of England, is cancelled upon the reluctant orders of Adolf Hitler to do so, in order to retain trained crews and bombers for use in an expected future "atomic offensive". October, 1944 - First German atomic bomb is constructed and tested near Rügen, a German island in the Baltic. The successful test results in an immediate order to begin increased production of the weapons. January, 1944 - With enough weapons ready, the Luftwaffe is ordered to commence the first mass atomic attack in history, in support of Operation Nordlicht in Alsace-Lorraine and Operation Konrad in Hungary. Operation Eisenhammer, a long planned conventional attack that has been consistently delayed since 1943, is also authorized using bases in East Prussia but with the new atomic weapons instead of normal explosives. ___ So what do you think happens next? What are the short to long term outcomes of this? Personally, I think it's sufficient to win a compromise peace for the Reich.
You would need a hell of a lot of things to go right for the Germans, including a fair number of correct decisions being made, which they were notoriously bad at. Getting the resources together would probably need to cancel a lot more than the V2 research as well as overcoming the Nazi opposition to Jewish science. Also Germany has much greater resource limitations than N America even without the attacks that would happen - I know you mention some delay but such a programme would be target No. 1 for the allied heavy bombers and it requires a hell of a lot of complex infrastructure as well as power, both of which likely to be targeted. Also you seem to be referring to the more complex plutonium design rather than a simpler uranium one.
Even if one was available by Jan 45 and the Germans managed the further advances of getting a markedly smaller design that the He-177 then you have a delivery issue. Trying to attack Britain would run into a powerful and advanced air defence system which would be on high alert after the Nazi bomb test. Not to mention that any delivery capacity would be added to the allied target lists. Its possible that a bomber might get through to London but its going to be a hell of a challenge.
If a He-177 could reach Moscow with such a load then a night attack there might be a better option and it could do a fair bit of damage to such a large city but its only going to delay the end. As well as making the Soviets even angrier and more brutal. Better might be attacks on Soviet army concentrations but again it will only delay things. Ditto with attacks on western ground forces but their going to have an even stronger air cover and by Jan 45 a fair number are going to be inside Germany.
Another option, mentioned in the linked article is a suicide sub but that would have to get close to an allied target, very likely a port. Alternatively a land based nuclear mine. However you would need to have enough enemy forces in range to make it effective without it being discovered and disarmed. Plus by this time [Jan 45] the war is increasingly being fought on German soil. The Nazis could well be willing to burn up large chunks of Germany to delay their fall but I'm not sure the German army would be.
The other issue is the allied reaction. A compromise peace will NOT be on. Both because allied victory is so close and because none of the major allied powers would trust a Nazi Germany with a nuclear capacity to do anything other than pause, regroup and start a new wave of attacks. Once they realise that the Germans have a serious nuclear project and especially once a device is actually tested then I can see a number of steps made: a) Even higher priority toward attacking German nuclear infrastructure and aircraft production. By this time the allies are advancing rapidly and overrunning much of the German air defence system so the allied bombers, by both day and night so they can do a hell of a lot of damage. Also with ranges reduced tactical air power can be used against many targets. [Remembering that without a V2 programme the allies are going to be able to have the resources they committed to countering those available.]
b) Also a higher priority towards the allied nuclear programme and delivery system. Possibly they select one instead of the four routes they were following and put everything into that. This may not advance things much as the B-29 would need advancing as well although, while like with the He-177 it would probably be a suicide mission a Lancaster could be modified to deliver such a counter.
c) There is however a much easier allied counter. Politically it might not be used until a German nuclear test, or even until after they have used a warhead in anger but the western allies could use chemical weapons against German targets. This would quickly cripple the German economy and industry as well as inflicting appalling casualties on the German population.
As such if by some combination of flukes Nazi German managed to develop a miniaturised nuclear device it might make the end stages bloodier for all involved but possibly most of all for the Germans and wouldn't change the outcome of the conflict.
On the subject of cost, the V-2 program alone cost 1/4th the price of the Manhattan Project. Of said Project, it attempted to research three different types of weapons, including one design they completely gave up on in 1944 due to its nature of not likely producing an effective bomb for years. The German Project would gave the advantage of focusing on just one type, the plutonium design Fritz Houtermanns IOTL really did envision and design for. That focus offers major cost and time savings. As far as the scientific basis, the Germans are fine with what they have in terms of experts. Heisenberg was the leading Nuclear expert before the war to the extent the Allies planned assassination attempts on him. What really hurt the project was he made a mistake on the critical mass, something the Allies themselves weren't able to refine until 1941, and reject graphite as a moderator; this too was something the Allies didn't decide on until 1941. These are very understandable mistakes in context, and it should be noted that while at Farm Hill in August of 1945 the captured German team, solely using Allied broadcasts, were able to figure out how the Americans did it over just the course of two weeks. As far as the strategic side of things, if Antwerp and Marseilles the ability of the Western Allies to advance into Germany becomes impossible due to logistical constraints. If Moscow and Leningrad, the RKKA losses, for one example, almost 70% of engine production for the VVS and thus aircraft production. In such conditions prosecuting the war against the Reich becomes impossible. As you note, one counter is to break out the chemicals and biological agents, but given German nerve gas stocks and their nuclear monopoly I don't see the UK willing to make that trade off given the danger it would place their own cities in. With hindsight, we know that's unlikely but they don't, especially given the V-1s having been used on it until recently. |
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Oct 20, 2019 12:25:16 GMT
You would need a hell of a lot of things to go right for the Germans, including a fair number of correct decisions being made, which they were notoriously bad at. Getting the resources together would probably need to cancel a lot more than the V2 research as well as overcoming the Nazi opposition to Jewish science. Also Germany has much greater resource limitations than N America even without the attacks that would happen - I know you mention some delay but such a programme would be target No. 1 for the allied heavy bombers and it requires a hell of a lot of complex infrastructure as well as power, both of which likely to be targeted. Also you seem to be referring to the more complex plutonium design rather than a simpler uranium one.
Even if one was available by Jan 45 and the Germans managed the further advances of getting a markedly smaller design that the He-177 then you have a delivery issue. Trying to attack Britain would run into a powerful and advanced air defence system which would be on high alert after the Nazi bomb test. Not to mention that any delivery capacity would be added to the allied target lists. Its possible that a bomber might get through to London but its going to be a hell of a challenge.
If a He-177 could reach Moscow with such a load then a night attack there might be a better option and it could do a fair bit of damage to such a large city but its only going to delay the end. As well as making the Soviets even angrier and more brutal. Better might be attacks on Soviet army concentrations but again it will only delay things. Ditto with attacks on western ground forces but their going to have an even stronger air cover and by Jan 45 a fair number are going to be inside Germany.
Another option, mentioned in the linked article is a suicide sub but that would have to get close to an allied target, very likely a port. Alternatively a land based nuclear mine. However you would need to have enough enemy forces in range to make it effective without it being discovered and disarmed. Plus by this time [Jan 45] the war is increasingly being fought on German soil. The Nazis could well be willing to burn up large chunks of Germany to delay their fall but I'm not sure the German army would be.
The other issue is the allied reaction. A compromise peace will NOT be on. Both because allied victory is so close and because none of the major allied powers would trust a Nazi Germany with a nuclear capacity to do anything other than pause, regroup and start a new wave of attacks. Once they realise that the Germans have a serious nuclear project and especially once a device is actually tested then I can see a number of steps made: a) Even higher priority toward attacking German nuclear infrastructure and aircraft production. By this time the allies are advancing rapidly and overrunning much of the German air defence system so the allied bombers, by both day and night so they can do a hell of a lot of damage. Also with ranges reduced tactical air power can be used against many targets. [Remembering that without a V2 programme the allies are going to be able to have the resources they committed to countering those available.]
b) Also a higher priority towards the allied nuclear programme and delivery system. Possibly they select one instead of the four routes they were following and put everything into that. This may not advance things much as the B-29 would need advancing as well although, while like with the He-177 it would probably be a suicide mission a Lancaster could be modified to deliver such a counter.
c) There is however a much easier allied counter. Politically it might not be used until a German nuclear test, or even until after they have used a warhead in anger but the western allies could use chemical weapons against German targets. This would quickly cripple the German economy and industry as well as inflicting appalling casualties on the German population.
As such if by some combination of flukes Nazi German managed to develop a miniaturised nuclear device it might make the end stages bloodier for all involved but possibly most of all for the Germans and wouldn't change the outcome of the conflict.
On the subject of cost, the V-2 program alone cost 1/4th the price of the Manhattan Project. Of said Project, it attempted to research three different types of weapons, including one design they completely gave up on in 1944 due to its nature of not likely producing an effective bomb for years. The German Project would gave the advantage of focusing on just one type, the plutonium design Fritz Houtermanns IOTL really did envision and design for. That focus offers major cost and time savings. As far as the scientific basis, the Germans are fine with what they have in terms of experts. Heisenberg was the leading Nuclear expert before the war to the extent the Allies planned assassination attempts on him. What really hurt the project was he made a mistake on the critical mass, something the Allies themselves weren't able to refine until 1941, and reject graphite as a moderator; this too was something the Allies didn't decide on until 1941. These are very understandable mistakes in context, and it should be noted that while at Farm Hill in August of 1945 the captured German team, solely using Allied broadcasts, were able to figure out how the Americans did it over just the course of two weeks. As far as the strategic side of things, if Antwerp and Marseilles the ability of the Western Allies to advance into Germany becomes impossible due to logistical constraints. If Moscow and Leningrad, the RKKA losses, for one example, almost 70% of engine production for the VVS and thus aircraft production. In such conditions prosecuting the war against the Reich becomes impossible. As you note, one counter is to break out the chemicals and biological agents, but given German nerve gas stocks and their nuclear monopoly I don't see the UK willing to make that trade off given the danger it would place their own cities in. With hindsight, we know that's unlikely but they don't, especially given the V-1s having been used on it until recently.
As you say even if they get all those breaks they will need to find a lot of additional resources and overcome the Nazi bureaucracy. I can't see them doing it in anything like enough time especially given the hammering the project would get from the allies as soon as they suspect something will continue. Let alone producing several warheads of a much advanced design and then getting them delivered.
If they somehow did manage to produce multiple weapons and deliver several then the allies have an even greater incentive to continue the war to crush Hitler's regime before they can launch further attacks. That's simply the nature of the regime in power there. Also there will be a desire from all the powers to get their hands on such technology, even with the western powers having their own larger but more primitive programme.
Frankly I suspect Britain would decide to continue the war but even if it didn't the Soviets and the US would. Its uncertain that the Germans have the ability to deliver much ordinance to Britain under those circumstances, even before the allied response to such a wave of nuclear strikes. Yes the Germans do have a small portion of nerve gas, assuming this is still developing in those circumstances but the allies have massive amounts of chemical weapons themselves and the ability to deliver them in crushing numbers. Given how the German economy is already staggering under such blows the end could well come even quicker than OTL.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 20, 2019 12:51:07 GMT
On the subject of cost, the V-2 program alone cost 1/4th the price of the Manhattan Project. Of said Project, it attempted to research three different types of weapons, including one design they completely gave up on in 1944 due to its nature of not likely producing an effective bomb for years. The German Project would gave the advantage of focusing on just one type, the plutonium design Fritz Houtermanns IOTL really did envision and design for. That focus offers major cost and time savings. As far as the scientific basis, the Germans are fine with what they have in terms of experts. Heisenberg was the leading Nuclear expert before the war to the extent the Allies planned assassination attempts on him. What really hurt the project was he made a mistake on the critical mass, something the Allies themselves weren't able to refine until 1941, and reject graphite as a moderator; this too was something the Allies didn't decide on until 1941. These are very understandable mistakes in context, and it should be noted that while at Farm Hill in August of 1945 the captured German team, solely using Allied broadcasts, were able to figure out how the Americans did it over just the course of two weeks. As far as the strategic side of things, if Antwerp and Marseilles the ability of the Western Allies to advance into Germany becomes impossible due to logistical constraints. If Moscow and Leningrad, the RKKA losses, for one example, almost 70% of engine production for the VVS and thus aircraft production. In such conditions prosecuting the war against the Reich becomes impossible. As you note, one counter is to break out the chemicals and biological agents, but given German nerve gas stocks and their nuclear monopoly I don't see the UK willing to make that trade off given the danger it would place their own cities in. With hindsight, we know that's unlikely but they don't, especially given the V-1s having been used on it until recently.
As you say even if they get all those breaks they will need to find a lot of additional resources and overcome the Nazi bureaucracy. I can't see them doing it in anything like enough time especially given the hammering the project would get from the allies as soon as they suspect something will continue. Let alone producing several warheads of a much advanced design and then getting them delivered.
If they somehow did manage to produce multiple weapons and deliver several then the allies have an even greater incentive to continue the war to crush Hitler's regime before they can launch further attacks. That's simply the nature of the regime in power there. Also there will be a desire from all the powers to get their hands on such technology, even with the western powers having their own larger but more primitive programme.
Frankly I suspect Britain would decide to continue the war but even if it didn't the Soviets and the US would. Its uncertain that the Germans have the ability to deliver much ordinance to Britain under those circumstances, even before the allied response to such a wave of nuclear strikes. Yes the Germans do have a small portion of nerve gas, assuming this is still developing in those circumstances but the allies have massive amounts of chemical weapons themselves and the ability to deliver them in crushing numbers. Given how the German economy is already staggering under such blows the end could well come even quicker than OTL.
IOTL, the first Allied bomb was available two years and 7.5 months after Chicago Pile-1 came online. Here, the Germans get their first one after three years and four months, so about an extra year of development due to funding/resource issues. You are correct in that Britain is relatively immune from attack, but her forces aren't and she needs those to bring the war to a close. If the Soviets collapse, and it will if their major cities and logistical hubs are destroyed, then the transfusion of forces westwards combined with destroying the ports the Western Allies depend on for logistics means the war is brought to a stalemate. |
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Oct 20, 2019 14:40:21 GMT
As you say even if they get all those breaks they will need to find a lot of additional resources and overcome the Nazi bureaucracy. I can't see them doing it in anything like enough time especially given the hammering the project would get from the allies as soon as they suspect something will continue. Let alone producing several warheads of a much advanced design and then getting them delivered.
If they somehow did manage to produce multiple weapons and deliver several then the allies have an even greater incentive to continue the war to crush Hitler's regime before they can launch further attacks. That's simply the nature of the regime in power there. Also there will be a desire from all the powers to get their hands on such technology, even with the western powers having their own larger but more primitive programme.
Frankly I suspect Britain would decide to continue the war but even if it didn't the Soviets and the US would. Its uncertain that the Germans have the ability to deliver much ordinance to Britain under those circumstances, even before the allied response to such a wave of nuclear strikes. Yes the Germans do have a small portion of nerve gas, assuming this is still developing in those circumstances but the allies have massive amounts of chemical weapons themselves and the ability to deliver them in crushing numbers. Given how the German economy is already staggering under such blows the end could well come even quicker than OTL.
IOTL, the first Allied bomb was available two years and 7.5 months after Chicago Pile-1 came online. Here, the Germans get their first one after three years and four months, so about an extra year of development due to funding/resource issues. You are correct in that Britain is relatively immune from attack, but her forces aren't and she needs those to bring the war to a close. If the Soviets collapse, and it will if their major cities and logistical hubs are destroyed, then the transfusion of forces westwards combined with destroying the ports the Western Allies depend on for logistics means the war is brought to a stalemate.
The destruction of logistical hubs will help as long as Germany can do it but they won't have nukes and delivery systems for long even if they can produce so many more bombs than the US despite their limitations. Nor will the Soviets collapse although damage to logistical centres will have a significant effect on their war effort as in the west. Its going to be the shattering of Germany that is likely to end the war in this scenario. Hopefully it will be limited to chemical attacks and Britain doesn't break out the anthrax bombs but I suspect they will refrain from that.
Accepting a surviving Nazi Germany with nukes and the ability to deliver them simply isn't a political option for the other powers. Even if there was some sort of military coup that partially replaced the Nazis in power in Germany the army is too linked to the Nazis and their shared desire for conquest to be trusted. Hence in the event the path your suggesting occurs the 1st few months of 1945 are likely to see the death toll for WWII leap dramatically compared to OTL and it won't be good for Germany.
One question is whether this might persuade the Japanese to surrender a little earlier. They will have seen the attitude of the allies to a surviving extreme fascist regime and with news that allied nukes are on the way it might be enough to persuade them to surrender before such weapons are used against them. Although there is the possibility with the lack of information and delusional nature of much of the regime and especially the military that might end up triggering some sort of civil war.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 20, 2019 15:01:55 GMT
IOTL, the first Allied bomb was available two years and 7.5 months after Chicago Pile-1 came online. Here, the Germans get their first one after three years and four months, so about an extra year of development due to funding/resource issues. You are correct in that Britain is relatively immune from attack, but her forces aren't and she needs those to bring the war to a close. If the Soviets collapse, and it will if their major cities and logistical hubs are destroyed, then the transfusion of forces westwards combined with destroying the ports the Western Allies depend on for logistics means the war is brought to a stalemate.
The destruction of logistical hubs will help as long as Germany can do it but they won't have nukes and delivery systems for long even if they can produce so many more bombs than the US despite their limitations. Nor will the Soviets collapse although damage to logistical centres will have a significant effect on their war effort as in the west. Its going to be the shattering of Germany that is likely to end the war in this scenario. Hopefully it will be limited to chemical attacks and Britain doesn't break out the anthrax bombs but I suspect they will refrain from that.
Accepting a surviving Nazi Germany with nukes and the ability to deliver them simply isn't a political option for the other powers. Even if there was some sort of military coup that partially replaced the Nazis in power in Germany the army is too linked to the Nazis and their shared desire for conquest to be trusted. Hence in the event the path your suggesting occurs the 1st few months of 1945 are likely to see the death toll for WWII leap dramatically compared to OTL and it won't be good for Germany.
One question is whether this might persuade the Japanese to surrender a little earlier. They will have seen the attitude of the allies to a surviving extreme fascist regime and with news that allied nukes are on the way it might be enough to persuade them to surrender before such weapons are used against them. Although there is the possibility with the lack of information and delusional nature of much of the regime and especially the military that might end up triggering some sort of civil war.
One for testing by October, serial production of 2-3 per month thereafter, which is slightly less than what the U.S. was projected to achieve after August of 1945; they were due for about six per month by December IOTL. I should also add that Bohemia and East Germany provided much of the initial materials needed for the Soviet nuclear program until about the 1960s, especially in regards to U-235. As for delivery devices, Operation Steinbock saw the Luftwaffe throw hundreds of HE-177s at London over the course of weeks, utilizing the well trained crews of JG 1000 (IIRC) that had originally been slated for Operation Eisenhammer. If the Germans have kept them in reserve, as I've posited, they've definitely got the means of a sustained nuclear campaign, particularly in the East where the Luftwaffe was able to maintain air superiority even into February/March of 1945. I'll also add a Soviet collapse is very likely if Moscow and Leningrad are destroyed, simply because too much leadership is focused there and inherent distrust between the Army, the NKVD and the Party as far as surviving, leaderless apparatus. Even if I'm wrong on this regard, the physical destruction of the means of production (Pun not intended) means a Soviet collapse, in a military sense, is assured through dearth of equipment to sustain the RKKA. As for the Anglo-Americans, their political will was already starting to be strained in 1944 and the heavy casualties and long war presented by a nuclear offensive by Germany would bring this to a head. It would take at least a year, if not longer, to recover from such a Nazi attack even if Britain itself is not directly impacted. Finally, for the Japanese, no civil war was possible nor would they be compelled to surrender by anything less than either the complete destruction of the state or the direct personal intervention of the Emperor. The 8/15 Incident is illustrative in this context. |
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Oct 21, 2019 8:39:27 GMT
It isn't entirely impossible for the Nazis to get The Bomb but it is hard work. An earlier POD, willingness to trust so-called Jewish Science, diverting resources etc etc.
With targeting Soviet Russia, my first thought would be 'why Leningrad?' after so many years of seige destruction... but the Nazis were hardly sensible over matters like that!
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 21, 2019 13:45:19 GMT
It isn't entirely impossible for the Nazis to get The Bomb but it is hard work. An earlier POD, willingness to trust so-called Jewish Science, diverting resources etc etc. With targeting Soviet Russia, my first thought would be 'why Leningrad?' after so many years of seige destruction... but the Nazis were hardly sensible over matters like that! It still retained large manufacturing capacity despite the siege and was a hub for the Soviet Baltic Fleet. |
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lordroel
Administrator
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Post by lordroel on Oct 21, 2019 13:57:20 GMT
It isn't entirely impossible for the Nazis to get The Bomb but it is hard work. An earlier POD, willingness to trust so-called Jewish Science, diverting resources etc etc. With targeting Soviet Russia, my first thought would be 'why Leningrad?' after so many years of seige destruction... but the Nazis were hardly sensible over matters like that! It still retained large manufacturing capacity despite the siege and was a hub for the Soviet Baltic Fleet. Why not Stalingrad. |
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 21, 2019 14:30:54 GMT
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