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Post by EwellHolmes on Sept 3, 2019 22:02:42 GMT
Creighton Abrams was one of the finalists for selection as MAC-V commander in 1964, which ultimately went to Westmoreland. Abrams favored training up the ARVN instead of ignoring them like Westmoreland did, less public engagement with the Media as opposed to Westmoreland's frequent meetings that helped to foster disillusionment as the war dragged on, and, most importantly, Abrams was the proponent of "clear and hold" as opposed to "search and destroy". Abrams also was behind the Cambodia Incursion, which makes me think he'd be less willing to accept Laotian neutrality, which could allow the U.S. to intervene there and directly cut the trail.
That sound like he might have made things a lot tougher for the communists. Whether final victory was possibly with continued supplies by both the Soviets and Mao to the north and without an invasion of the latter I don't know but you could see something that costs the communist enough that they might draw back, at least for a while.
LBJ would still be a problem but the big difference would be in three areas, and I'll flesh them out more to explain them better: 1. Abrams had the better tactics - Westmoreland conducted "Search and Destroy", which was really ineffective in defeating the VC, while Abrams was in favor of "Clear and Hold"; better known as hearts and minds. It was damned effective, was exactly what the Brits had done in contemporary times to secure Malaysia and what Petraeus would later do in Iraq that broke AQI. it was also much better for American morale, as it prevented useless "runs through the jungle" or things like Hamburger Hill, where we'd take high losses to defeat the enemy just to then give up the ground. 2. Abrams understood the media - Unlike Westmoreland, Abrams was not in favor of constantly doing press conferences or letting in lots of reporters which historically did earn the respect of the Media to him as it made them feel like they weren't being lied to like contrary to what Westmoreland did; this would also help domestic morale. IIRC, the decision to allow open season for Reporters was endorsed by Westmoreland in 1966, which is something Abrams wouldn't do. 3. Abrams was an early proponent of the ARVN - Westmoreland completely sidelined them and made no effort to help with their training or arming. Abrams was completely the opposite, and under him "Vietnamization" would occur. An earlier building up the ARVN would make them much more effective while reducing the toll and strain on American forces. |
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Sept 5, 2019 0:36:39 GMT
How about 'No Fascism'? I hardly recall seeing that after-1900 scenario discussed on AH.com at all, though there may be additional conversation that has taken place on other forums that I'm not (yet) a member of.
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Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Sept 5, 2019 5:27:09 GMT
They would still be rather anti-Semitic but may get more support from the deep South (replace ”blacks” with ”Jews” in a lot of Southern laws and you have Nuremberg staring back at you). I would imagine Himmler, Reinhard and all the really devout Nazis would need to fall down a well and be replaced by Speer, Von Schirach and other moderate (for the Nazis) candidates. |
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Post by Zyobot on Sept 6, 2019 21:51:37 GMT
They would still be rather anti-Semitic but may get more support from the deep South (replace ”blacks” with ”Jews” in a lot of Southern laws and you have Nuremberg staring back at you). I would imagine Himmler, Reinhard and all the really devout Nazis would need to fall down a well and be replaced by Speer, Von Schirach and other moderate (for the Nazis) candidates. Mm'kay. I'm wondering if on an overall level, the Third Reich ITTL would essentially become a right-wing counterpart to Stalinist Russia? |
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Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Sept 7, 2019 8:45:45 GMT
They would still be rather anti-Semitic but may get more support from the deep South (replace ”blacks” with ”Jews” in a lot of Southern laws and you have Nuremberg staring back at you). I would imagine Himmler, Reinhard and all the really devout Nazis would need to fall down a well and be replaced by Speer, Von Schirach and other moderate (for the Nazis) candidates. Mm'kay. I'm wondering if on an overall level, the Third Reich ITTL would essentially become a right-wing counterpart to Stalinist Russia? My prediction for such a world would be Unsucessful Sealion in October 1940 occurs, the Home Guard proceed to beat the Germans back but at heavy cost to both sides (a *lot* of German successes were based on their tanks - most of which wouldn't have got over the Channel anyway). A (un)lucky bomb hits Downing St and Lord Halifax is selected by HM George VI as PM. Halifax offers a peace deal, the gist of which is that: Britain recognises Vichy France and Nazi gains in the east in exchange for withdrawl from Norway, Wight and the Channel Islands and £5bn (in today's money). A cold war then proceeds at a leisurely pace, with Britain funding Free French rebels in Africa, Japan funding Hawaiian and Alaskan nationalists and Russia (the rump Siberian state) trying to lob equipment at Karelians, Poles, Belorussians and whoever will take it (not many people - Soviet Russia isn't well liked by the Russians in Karelia, who are more or less free to do what they want, and those under German rule are more occupied with trying to survive slavery or escape to more liberal areas). The blocs in such a world would be: Germany, France, Benelux countries, Croatia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria Italy, Spain and Portugal UK and colonies/Commonwealth, Free French Africa Japan, Manchuko, Jingwei China, Thailand, Indonesia Russia and West China (Tse-Tung) USA and Canada |
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Post by Zyobot on Sept 8, 2019 23:16:26 GMT
Since I mentioned making him a fascist, I wonder if 'Capitalist Joseph Stalin' could prove to be a worthwhile 'After-1900' thread. Of course, he won't be able join the Bolsheviks with that ideological belief system, so...
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Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Sept 10, 2019 19:19:41 GMT
Since I mentioned making him a fascist, I wonder if 'Capitalist Joseph Stalin' could prove to be a worthwhile 'After-1900' thread. Of course, he won't be able join the Bolsheviks with that ideological belief system, so... Lenin was a nobleman, so… |
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Post by stevep on Sept 12, 2019 16:57:31 GMT
It could come about in a number of ways but one obvious one is that Britain never joins the EEC. This would have a big impact on both Britain and Europe. The EFTA while smaller than the EEC would still be a viable alternative and could well be an attractive alternative to the EEC/EC/EU for much of eastern Europe assuming that the Soviet empire collapses as OTL. Especially if without Britain the EU has centralised more quickly than OTL ~1991.
Even without that how does the EEC handled the CAP problem without Britain to act as a source of funds and even more so a second stomach to absorb a lot of the CAP surpluses?
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Sept 26, 2019 3:19:15 GMT
‘Kurt Godel Doesn’t Prove His Incompleteness Theorems’. Not that I’m particularly well-versed in doctoral math and/or logic, but maybe the more knowledgeable members of the Alternate Timelines community could speculate on the consequences of this PoD.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Sept 27, 2019 5:35:22 GMT
There was a thread in AH.com about a scenario involving the Ottomans staying neutral through an obscure proposed treaty made by Enver Pasha and some attache named Leontiev. The proposed treaty would involve the re-acquisition of Bulgarian occupied Western Thrace by the Ottomans in exchange for considerable gains in Macedonia (in conjunction with Serbia, which will gain the northwestern regions of Macedonia) and several Aegean Islands under Greek control will be given to the Ottomans. The Greeks in return gain southern Albania (Epirus region) and Serbia would be compensated with Bosnia-Hercegovina. Funnily enough, Enver Pasha's eagerness to secure Ottoman neutrality was supported by Said Halim Pasha and Talaat Pasha, and the Russians also supported this endeavor. If this scenario actually played out, the Russians would get the extra troops that they stationed in the Caucasus region and deploy them against the Austro-Hungarian and German Empires (possibly even knocking out Austria-Hungary first before Germany).
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 27, 2019 10:10:02 GMT
There was a thread in AH.com about a scenario involving the Ottomans staying neutral through an obscure proposed treaty made by Enver Pasha and some attache named Leontiev. The proposed treaty would involve the re-acquisition of Bulgarian occupied Western Thrace by the Ottomans in exchange for considerable gains in Macedonia (in conjunction with Serbia, which will gain the northwestern regions of Macedonia) and several Aegean Islands under Greek control will be given to the Ottomans. The Greeks in return gain southern Albania (Epirus region) and Serbia would be compensated with Bosnia-Hercegovina. Funnily enough, Enver Pasha's eagerness to secure Ottoman neutrality was supported by Said Halim Pasha and Talaat Pasha, and the Russians also supported this endeavor. If this scenario actually played out, the Russians would get the extra troops that they stationed in the Caucasus region and deploy them against the Austro-Hungarian and German Empires (possibly even knocking out Austria-Hungary first before Germany).
Interesting idea but I'm not sure given the long centuries of mistrust, not to say hostility between the assorted powers whether they would trust each other. Also given Austria had gone to war to 'punish', puppetise and possibly even annex Serbia I can't see them agreeing to giving up territory they rule. You could even see Austria and Germany going to war with the Turks, albeit probably fairly ineffective as they wouldn't have a common border with them. Or was this proposal before FF was assassinated?
If this had gone ahead then it would have been a hell of a lot better for the allied powers. Not just the forces freed up that OTL ending up fighting the Ottomans but also the continuation of trade through the straits would have enabled Russia to import much needed armaments and industrial equipment from its western allies and in turn probably supplying them with food and other raw materials.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Sept 27, 2019 14:43:38 GMT
The deal mentioned above is only made between Russia and the Ottoman Empire, with no British and French involvement in it at all. This proposal was made after Franz Ferdinand was assassinated, but before the two German ships arrived in Constantinople.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Sept 27, 2019 14:51:19 GMT
The deal mentioned above is only made between Russia and the Ottoman Empire, with no British and French involvement in it at all. This proposal was made after Franz Ferdinand was assassinated, but before the two German ships arrived in Constantinople. Do you know what happen to those two ships TheRomanSlayer in that TL. |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Sept 27, 2019 15:34:06 GMT
The Goeben and Breslau ended up in Constantinople, where the Germans had handed the ships over to the Ottomans.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Sept 27, 2019 15:42:10 GMT
The Goeben and Breslau ended up in Constantinople, where the Germans had handed the ships over to the Ottomans. So the same as OTL then. |
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