stevep
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Post by stevep on May 21, 2020 10:23:36 GMT
Prussia's Friedrich III lives and the early years of his reign see Bismarck stay where he is. No German attempts at global expansion?
Well there was pressure for 'a place in the sun' which Bismarck conceded before he was removed from power so you would probably get some German colonies, quite possibly similar to OTL. However that wasn't really the problem, it was the German attitude inside Europe.
The more liberal Friedrich, especially if he lives to 1900 or later say, is far less likely to throw his weight about as much. I think he would seek to keep both Russia and Austria on-line and also avoid picking fights with Britain. Sooner or later he's going to have to choose between the two eastern autocrats but even if he still chooses Austria he could moderate relations with Russia somewhat. Also he might push for reforms in Austria that could make it stronger - or possibly prompt a revolt by the more reactionary elements.
Of course he's going to die sooner or later so we still get Wilhelm II. Would he have learnt a bit more from his father about diplomacy or still be the bull in the china shop of OTL. Tirpitz is likely to be ignored until Wilhelm comes in and may have become too isolated plus they would have to start from a later and lower base. Also if his father has chosen Austria over Russia and you get the OTL Franco-Russian alliance you might see some defensive pact with Britain which would make Wilhelm a bit more restrained.
Steve
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 21, 2020 10:39:10 GMT
Well it could easily have happened. Britain has already made concessions on the searching of US ships for British sailors but the news hadn't reached Washington by the time of the dow and the US didn't decide on peace instead. If things had happened a bit earlier then the pressure for war might be defeated.
There is still going to be fighting. The US won't recognise any Indian Confederation, as was shown by the attack on Tippecanoe showed and Tecumseh's efforts will ultimately be destroyed. Ditto with any attempt by the 5 'civilised' tribes in the south to gain acceptance and your also likely to see U attacks on Florida, possibly a bit earlier. Hence all those regions are going to fall under full US control but possibly a little earlier.
Overall without the European element to the war the US will save a lot of casualties and destruction and Britain and Canada will also benefit. Britain will be able to concentrate totally on the war with Napoleon, although unlikely to make a massive difference however the lack of US raiders or need to blockade a lot of the US coastline and send forces to defend Canada will be very helpful.
Later on, without the OTL failures do the more aggressive elements in the US make a different attempt to annex Canada? If so could be a solo UK-US war, which is likely to go badly for them. If not the US might end up with more or possibly even all of Canada as it simply outnumbered Canada so greatly and many in Canada moved south, as still happens in the modern period. The 1812 conflict and the defence of their country did a lot to solidify the Canadian identity, especially west of the Maritime colonies which had been largely settled by loyalist refuges from the previous war. A lot of the settlers in upper Canada [Ontario] were actually Americans who moving westwards, especially from New England had sworn loyalty to the king in return for land grants and while many fought in the 1812 conflict would probably have been more accepting of a gradual and peaceful assimilation.
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Post by CastilloVerde on Jun 1, 2020 1:54:38 GMT
Some PODs I've thought of:
1. Otto III, Holy Roman Emperor, not dying suddenly at the age of 22. In OTL he was very ambitious and planned to recreate the power and majesty of the Roman Empire through the HRE. He was also engaged to the Eastern Roman princess Zoë Porphyrogenita. Unfortunately in 1002 he died suddenly in Italy.
2. Alexios II Komnenos being born a girl in 1169. Emperor Manuel initially named prince Béla of Hungary (future king Béla III) as his successor and got the nobility to support this idea. A stable male heir could avoid the coup of Andronikos and the disastrous Angeloi dynasty.
3. Ariq Böke defeating Khubilai in the Mongol civil war (1260-64). The sinophilic Khubilai losing against the more steppe-oriented Ariq would lead to a dramatic shift in focus for the Khanate. Would Song Dynasty even be conquered without Khubilai's determination to continue the Chinese conquests?
4. No 'Slap of Anagni' (1303). This event was caused by the growing power struggle between the Popes and the Kings of France and directly led to the imprisonment of Boniface VIII and transfer of the papacy to Avignon. The Avignon captivity itself contributed to later events like the Western Schism which undermined papal prestige and helped discredit the power of the popes and played no small role in the Protestant reformation.
5. Ottoman victory at Ankara (1402) against Timur. Constantinople falling 50 years early would itself be a major divergence from this, not to mention the stronger Ottomans.
6. Successful League of the Public Weal in the 1460s. I wonder what effect this would have on Charles the Bold's plans.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jun 1, 2020 4:12:48 GMT
A few PoDs that I thought of while I'm trying to rewrite my TL:
1) Dmytro Vyshnevetsky defects to the Ottoman Empire and Crimean Khanate because of the stronger Catholicization of the predominantly Orthodox Ruthenian lands. IOTL he almost did, but was assigned to build a fortification that the Crimean Khanate failed to capture.
2) Alexander Jagiellon reigning a bit longer and living a bit healthier, long enough for him to sire a child with Helena of Moscow. His survival would have ensured that men like Mikhail Glinski would not defect from the PLC (or rather, the Lithuanian half of the PLC) and remains loyal.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 1, 2020 11:45:38 GMT
Some PODs I've thought of: 1. Otto III, Holy Roman Emperor, not dying suddenly at the age of 22. In OTL he was very ambitious and planned to recreate the power and majesty of the Roman Empire through the HRE. He was also engaged to the Eastern Roman princess Zoë Porphyrogenita. Unfortunately in 1002 he died suddenly in Italy. 2. Alexios II Komnenos being born a girl in 1169. Emperor Manuel initially named prince Béla of Hungary (future king Béla III) as his successor and got the nobility to support this idea. A stable male heir could avoid the coup of Andronikos and the disastrous Angeloi dynasty. 3. Ariq Böke defeating Khubilai in the Mongol civil war (1260-64). The sinophilic Khubilai losing against the more steppe-oriented Ariq would lead to a dramatic shift in focus for the Khanate. Would Song Dynasty even be conquered without Khubilai's determination to continue the Chinese conquests? 4. No 'Slap of Anagni' (1303). This event was caused by the growing power struggle between the Popes and the Kings of France and directly led to the imprisonment of Boniface VIII and transfer of the papacy to Avignon. The Avignon captivity itself contributed to later events like the Western Schism which undermined papal prestige and helped discredit the power of the popes and played no small role in the Protestant reformation. 5. Ottoman victory at Ankara (1402) against Timur. Constantinople falling 50 years early would itself be a major divergence from this, not to mention the stronger Ottomans. 6. Successful League of the Public Weal in the 1460s. I wonder what effect this would have on Charles the Bold's plans.
Not massively knowledgeable on those issues buts some thoughts.
1) If he lives a fairly full life then he's going to clash a lot with the Papacy of course and probably with a number of the powerful nobles so that could go either way. Although checking he was able to install a couple of popes so that might not be a great issue, at least at 1st. Also once Basil II died, since he didn't provide a male heir that would give Otto a claim on the eastern throne. This would be likely to cause serious concern in both east and west and he would have to make a lot of important decisions, especially on what stance to take on matters such as religious differences between the east and west. Would he continue to support the Pope's claim to superiority over all other Christian clerics which would anger the Byzantine clergy and population or reject such a claim which would win support in the east but cause upset in the west. [Although it might gain some support from other western rulers who desired to reduce papal power.
Even so I can't see him successfully ruling both empires for any length of time. Their simply too big and too different from each other. Plus such a colossus would be seen as a threat by both the Byzantine nobles, who disliked Basil's control over them and most/all rulers in the west - along with other areas such as the Slavic states in eastern Europe - who would fear being drawn under his control. As such I can see continued unrest and rebellion, probably helped by states such as France, Poland, Hungary etc. He might be able to secure a fairly centralised HRE which gains dominance over the Papacy and becomes the 1st among equals in the Catholic realms or possibly give up on the west and establish a new dynasty in Byzantium - which could make a difference when the Seljuks arrive but I can't see him doing both. Suspect the most likely success would be in the west.
However a powerful HRE which has reduced Papal power, is likely to dramatically change things in the west. Other states would be encouraged to establish 'national' churches to avoid being drawn into the influence of the Ottoian dynasty due to its control of the Papacy. It might also be able to organise a more powerful and better run 1st crusade if the Turks as OTL reduce much of the eastern empire.
2) Know even less about this but if Béla became emperor would he have converted to Orthodox and given up any claims to the Hungarians throne? Reading his wiki entry the proposed inheritance caused conflict between his elder brother Stephen who became king of Hungary after their father died because Bela had been given Croatia and central Dalmatia which would come under Byzantine control as a result. The empire seems to have won those conflicts however.
There's only 3 years between Issac's birth and Stephen's death so if no male heir to Manuel is born and Stephen still dies in 1172 does Bela still claim the Hungarian throne? If so can he hold it? He seems to be popular there after Stephen's death but from 1180, assuming Manuel dies as OTL he would also be emperor of Byzantium and could he ride both horses? If he can, especially for a while that might help in terms of avoiding some of the conflict in the region and a more powerful empire/kingdom operation could mean success against the Turks, possibly avoiding the disastrous defeat at Myriokephalon. Whether the empire could secure the core of Anatolia, at least at this point, is uncertain but if it did that would have a dramatic effect depending on how the probable Mongol invasions of E Europe and the ME develop.
Probably if Bela rules both states the likihood is that he would split them between his two eldest sons, assuming he has such children. Which wouldn't ensure friendly relations between the two but might help avoid some conflict. Although there would be the possibility of the two heirs later fighting and one winning - reunited the realm, at least for a while. Possibly such longer lasting links might see Hungary, or at least Croatia and other pasts of the western Balkans becoming predominantly Orthodox.
3) Not sure I know enough about how this might change things. Still likely to be a lot of conflict with China if only because Böke would see it as a target for looting if not conquest. There is the possibility, if he has enough power and contempt for the settled populations that the plan apparently considered by Genghis to depopulate northern China and turn it over to Mongol pastorists could be revived which would be very nasty for the region and its population.
Your unlikely to see attacks on Japan but probably still on Korea and possibly aid to the Golden Horde under Batu, who supported Boke's election whi9ch could mean more attacks on eastern Europe and possibly also on India by the two. It could make things even worse for Hulegu and his successors who had supported Kublai's election and clashed with the Golden Horde repeatedly, especially with Batu's hard line Muslim stance.
4) If its just the slap not occurring it probably won't make a massive difference as there was a lot of tension between the factions anyway. Unless the pope isn't able to escape for some reason but don't know enough to more than guess wildly on this issue.
5) Given Timur's power and OTL success this seems unlikely unless say Timur dies in the battle or possibly shortly beforehand and his army is in disorder and defeated as a result? Read a while back that a lot of the Turks of Anatolia actually submitted to Timur before the Ottoman sultan arrived and his army mainly consisted of forces from this European lands, largely Christian vassals. Possibly if he was able to gte the Anatolian vassals to fight with him it might have resulted in a victory over Timur but likely to be bloody for both sides.
Such a victory is likely to lead to an earlier conquest of Constantinople and would also greatly increase Bayezid's prestige around the world but especially in Muslim areas. There is the possibility he might also seek to expand eastwards, taking advantage of Timur's probable death and hence weakness in his empire, at least initially. However Constantinople is almost certain to fall sooner than OTL unless something really goes catastrophically wrong for the Ottomans which is unlikely.
I don't know if it would mean an earlier conquest of say Hungary as it might mean an expanding Ottoman empire clashes with the latter while its still strong and well led so could see a check there.
Might not make a significant difference to the Timur empire as it only brings his death forward by a couple of years. Could see a clearer heir emerge or bitter infighting but the level of destruction that Timur produced means its unlikely to last for any length of time.
6) If by successful you mean King Louis is decisively defeated then it could mean France like the HRE has another period of division and weakness of central authority. This could see challenges to the Valois dynasty, including by England reviving the Planatagent claim and if Charles the Bold doesn't avoid his OTL defeat - which seems likely given his rashness - Burgundy as well as other groups. Could be a pretty rough period for France but might also mean that some of the regional identities such as Gascony, Brittany, Flanders, Province and most of all Burgundy of course survive and they possibly even become fully independent states.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 1, 2020 13:08:24 GMT
A few PoDs that I thought of while I'm trying to rewrite my TL: 1) Dmytro Vyshnevetsky defects to the Ottoman Empire and Crimean Khanate because of the stronger Catholicization of the predominantly Orthodox Ruthenian lands. IOTL he almost did, but was assigned to build a fortification that the Crimean Khanate failed to capture. 2) Alexander Jagiellon reigning a bit longer and living a bit healthier, long enough for him to sire a child with Helena of Moscow. His survival would have ensured that men like Mikhail Glinski would not defect from the PLC (or rather, the Lithuanian half of the PLC) and remains loyal.
1) Don't know enough to say much but from a brief look at his wiki entry if he did defect then not only would it add his abilities to the Khanate but that fortress at Khortytsia would probably not have been built and hence the Crimean Tartars would have put more effort into attacking into the western Ukraine region rather than northwards towards Muscovy. Whether he would have been glad at that in terms of weakening Polish rule or angry because it would be his people being ravaged I don't know but possibly he might defect back to the commonwealth again? Just as he did when Muscovy threatened the region if I read the Wiki entry correctly?
2) Had a brief look at the wiki for Alexander and Mikhail but can't really tell for sure. Might have resulted in a rebellion by the older, established nobles such as the Zabrzeziński clan against Alexander's favouritism toward Mikhail. Which might have further weakened the state or if over quickly might have left it stronger and possibly even allowed Alexander to regain some powers from the Polish Parliament.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Jun 2, 2020 3:16:08 GMT
Some PODs I've thought of: 1. Otto III, Holy Roman Emperor, not dying suddenly at the age of 22. In OTL he was very ambitious and planned to recreate the power and majesty of the Roman Empire through the HRE. He was also engaged to the Eastern Roman princess Zoë Porphyrogenita. Unfortunately in 1002 he died suddenly in Italy. 2. Alexios II Komnenos being born a girl in 1169. Emperor Manuel initially named prince Béla of Hungary (future king Béla III) as his successor and got the nobility to support this idea. A stable male heir could avoid the coup of Andronikos and the disastrous Angeloi dynasty. 3. Ariq Böke defeating Khubilai in the Mongol civil war (1260-64). The sinophilic Khubilai losing against the more steppe-oriented Ariq would lead to a dramatic shift in focus for the Khanate. Would Song Dynasty even be conquered without Khubilai's determination to continue the Chinese conquests? 4. No 'Slap of Anagni' (1303). This event was caused by the growing power struggle between the Popes and the Kings of France and directly led to the imprisonment of Boniface VIII and transfer of the papacy to Avignon. The Avignon captivity itself contributed to later events like the Western Schism which undermined papal prestige and helped discredit the power of the popes and played no small role in the Protestant reformation. 5. Ottoman victory at Ankara (1402) against Timur. Constantinople falling 50 years early would itself be a major divergence from this, not to mention the stronger Ottomans. 6. Successful League of the Public Weal in the 1460s. I wonder what effect this would have on Charles the Bold's plans. #2 is a PoD I'd love to see, as I've only seen one timeline about that. #5 would be the ultimate Ottoman-wank. |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jun 2, 2020 4:26:23 GMT
A few PoDs that I thought of while I'm trying to rewrite my TL: 1) Dmytro Vyshnevetsky defects to the Ottoman Empire and Crimean Khanate because of the stronger Catholicization of the predominantly Orthodox Ruthenian lands. IOTL he almost did, but was assigned to build a fortification that the Crimean Khanate failed to capture. 2) Alexander Jagiellon reigning a bit longer and living a bit healthier, long enough for him to sire a child with Helena of Moscow. His survival would have ensured that men like Mikhail Glinski would not defect from the PLC (or rather, the Lithuanian half of the PLC) and remains loyal.
1) Don't know enough to say much but from a brief look at his wiki entry if he did defect then not only would it add his abilities to the Khanate but that fortress at Khortytsia would probably not have been built and hence the Crimean Tartars would have put more effort into attacking into the western Ukraine region rather than northwards towards Muscovy. Whether he would have been glad at that in terms of weakening Polish rule or angry because it would be his people being ravaged I don't know but possibly he might defect back to the commonwealth again? Just as he did when Muscovy threatened the region if I read the Wiki entry correctly?
2) Had a brief look at the wiki for Alexander and Mikhail but can't really tell for sure. Might have resulted in a rebellion by the older, established nobles such as the Zabrzeziński clan against Alexander's favouritism toward Mikhail. Which might have further weakened the state or if over quickly might have left it stronger and possibly even allowed Alexander to regain some powers from the Polish Parliament.
1) Probably, but IOTL Bohdan Khmelnytsky also had Crimean Tatar allies in his rebellion against the Poles. For Vyshnevetsky, he might have mixed feelings about it, but like most Orthodox Christians, it was the whole "better the Sultan's turban than the Papal cap" thing. Which is why for the most part of Ottoman history, there were some rebellions against the Sultan's authority. At one point you also had Cossack hetmans in Ukraine wanting to become vassals of the Ottoman Empire as well. 2) That might have been the case, but there's also Alexander's heavy favoritism towards his fellow Lithuanians at the expense of the Ruthenians too. Or I might stick with the pairing that I had in "To Rebuild a Shattered World" with Vasily III of Moscow marrying Elizabeth Jagiellon instead of Alexander marrying Helena. Another possible early and unexplored PoDs: 3) Catherine of Podebrady dies in childbirth, but gives birth to a healthy baby girl. The surviving trueborn daughter of Mathias Corvinus and Catherine of Podebrady would become the future alternate wife of Archduke Maximillian, who became Maximillian I of the Holy Roman Empire. At best, we'd probably get a very early Hapsburg Hungary (though how an early Hapsburg Hungary would affect the wars between Hungary and the Ottoman Empire would be a major focal point). An early Hapsburg Hungary would have resulted in bringing a potential Jagiellon dynastic connection to Muscovy as well. 4) Ming China gets involved in the 1471 Cham-Vietnamese War on the side of Champa. Vietnam under the Le dynasty had launched an invasion of Champa, but the Ming only verbally rebuked the Vietnamese for the invasion. No aid meant that the Vietnamese were able to acquire some territories from Champa. Eventually that led to the decline of Champa and its eventual absorption into Vietnam. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Jun 3, 2020 11:27:23 GMT
Nelson survives trafalgar?
How does the battle be remembered without the tragic hero?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 3, 2020 12:24:28 GMT
Nelson survives trafalgar? How does the battle be remembered without the tragic hero?
Well its still a stunning victory that secures Britain's independence and greatly helps in protecting our vital trade and the blockading of Napoleon's empire. How Nelson is remembered is probably going to be a more significant factor. He seems to have been pretty popular with the ordinary population, despite his autocratic tendencies but his affair with Emma Hamilton was not popular with those higher up the social scale. Despite widespread adultery by many of them.
Also with no remaining major enemy battle-fleets to fight where does his career go now? There is still a lot of work to be done, including operations against French attempts to obtain new fleets, but mostly its smaller operations by relatively scattered forces. As such probably very little chance of new glory for him. He might end up dying from ill health on blockade duty somewhere.
He will still be the great naval hero of the conflict but I wonder if he would be that useful at an admin role as one of the Sea Lords if he got the chance?
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Jun 3, 2020 22:45:43 GMT
‘Earlier Automatic Weapons’. I know of proto-machine guns like the Puckle Gun, but I’m obviously looking for much more substantial strides in weapons development than that (i.e. M2 Browning analogues becoming viable and staple military kit decades earlier).
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 4, 2020 9:46:00 GMT
‘Earlier Automatic Weapons’. I know of proto-machine guns like the Puckle Gun, but I’m obviously looking for much more substantial strides in weapons development than that (i.e. M2 Browning analogues becoming viable and staple military kit decades earlier).
Assuming that this is possible and that it originates in the western world its going to make the colonial period even more devastating for the rest of the world. Possibly even see China partitioned or largely coming under British rule - assuming we're talking about in the period of British technological dominance - with other areas being hived off by Russia, France and a few others. Central Africa might last until OTL simply because the primary barrier there, other than reluctance for several decades to claim colonies there, is disease.
You might see the US becoming larger with expansion further south if their able to defeat Mexico even more decisively, which would change their cultural and society somewhat depending on how far south they go. Also with automatic weapons in military let alone settlers hands the Indians are going to be massacred even quicker than OTL. 
Military conflict being more bloody/decisive might make the continent even more militarised as nations fear a sudden decisive attack even more than OTL. Possibly this means something like WWI is avoided as defences against automatic weapons and entrenchment is realised as essential and say some clash such as the 1866 or 1870 conflicts end up with the Prussian offensives defeated with appalling losses. Which would potentially have a huge impact on European and hence world history.
It would need an earlier advance in standardising production and being able to produce high quality machine tools and levels of engineering but I doubt this could be advanced much more than a generation or two unless you have a POD several centuries earlier, which would likely mean its development somewhere other than the west and change a hell of a lot.
Steve
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Jun 9, 2020 0:57:33 GMT
‘William Jennings Bryan Wins The 1896 Election’.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 9, 2020 10:44:28 GMT
‘William Jennings Bryan Wins The 1896 Election’.
Well he's going to try and introduce a bi-metal standard, using silver as well as gold, which from what little I read of it a while back sounded like a potential problem. In a number of ways he's a liberal, opposing colonialism including by the US so there's unlikely to be a war with Spain and also the coup in Hawaii being recognised isn't going to happen under his watch so no annexation until after he's gone. Of course with Spain if something like the Maine disaster happens you could see the yellow press force the US into war but he's going to be less eager. Also he might do more to help blacks in fighting the rise of racism inside the US.
He's a supporter of the small farmer and businessman against the larger industrialists of the gilded age so might try to break up some of the cartels and other big blocks. Of course with any US President it depends on how much support he has in both Houses and how united that support is as its going to upset a lot of vested interests.
He's also highly religious and in his final years campaigned against evolution, famously appearing for the prosecution in the notorious Scopes Monkey trial. This could suggest something of a regression for a period of support for science under his leadership although guessing a bit here.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Jun 10, 2020 1:05:37 GMT
‘No Panic of 1893’.
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