lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 5, 2019 19:26:54 GMT
You mean the Soviet Union surviving until 2005 ore something else. Nope, it is the particulars of the butterflies. But I don't wish to go down that route here - picking on the story details - because I like and respect the author plus also his work is still amazing regardless of what I am unsure about. True, his work is ammazing and still ongoing, longer than his version of World War III.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on May 5, 2019 21:13:55 GMT
Nope, it is the particulars of the butterflies. But I don't wish to go down that route here - picking on the story details - because I like and respect the author plus also his work is still amazing regardless of what I am unsure about. True, his work is ammazing and still ongoing, longer than his version of World War III. Are you referring to some particular TL or something lordroel, if I may ask that is?
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James G
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Post by James G on May 5, 2019 21:21:36 GMT
True, his work is ammazing and still ongoing, longer than his version of World War III. Are you referring to some particular TL or something lordroel, if I may ask that is? It is called The Last War and is a story on this website: www.tboverse.us/HPCAFORUM/phpBB3/index.php Access to the story is behind a membership wall. To join that site is rather difficult! They have a major fear of spammers after being hit strongly in recent years so are very picky in who they give membership to. They open it up for a short period then shut membership again. I got in one time but others have tried and failed to gain membership. the site has about 500 members (half of them with thousands of posts) but could easily have thousands of members otherwise. The story contains a WW3 in 2005 with a surviving USSR. IIRC, the war itself is a few weeks old though the author has been writing it for several years - maybe an update a month, covering a few hours of war around different parts of the globe - and so it is an ongoing story.
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insect
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Post by insect on Jun 14, 2019 0:54:38 GMT
I say 10 years.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 14, 2019 7:39:34 GMT
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Jun 14, 2019 21:22:25 GMT
So, it'd last until roughly late 2001, then?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 15, 2019 9:47:20 GMT
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 15, 2019 10:40:17 GMT
Interesting. Think he over-estimates the importance of the Bolshevik revolution/coup in helping make capitalism in the west less destructive as I think the aftermath of WWI had a lot to do with that. Also that capitalism before WWI was already becoming less irresponsible even in Britain and the US. However some interesting suggestions although I find it difficult to see how an Andropov SU could have continued without large scale bloody repression on a scale unseen since Stalin's time.
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kyng
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Post by kyng on Jun 15, 2019 16:17:58 GMT
If anything, I think it's a wonder that the USSR, and the other communist regimes in eastern Europe, lasted as long as they did. In order to make them last even longer, you're probably going to need two things to remain true:
1) The authoritarian structure needs to survive, and; 2) The economy still needs to be good (or at least decent).
I reckon authoritarianism needs to survive, because I don't think it's really possible for a semi-democratic communist regime to function in the long run: the people will just demand more and more democracy, and then vote in a non-communist government. As for the economy, I think most people living in an authoritarian society will, perhaps grudgingly, accept it as long as they're doing well economically; however, if they aren't, then they'll blame the system and come out into the streets in droves.
The People's Republic of China has survived by doing both of these two things - no doubt helped in large part by capitalistic economic reforms (it's hard for their citizens to complain when hundreds of millions of them have been pulled out of abject poverty). It is possible that some of the European communist regimes can survive for longer, by going down a similar "communo-capitalist" route. It's not necessarily the only option - there may be others - but I don't think it's really possible without at least some level of economic reform.
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Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Aug 7, 2019 6:13:20 GMT
The problem with a long-lasting Cold War is that the hardliners - Cheremko, Brezhnev, Andoropov - weren't doing well for the economy. Gorbachev's reforms exacerbated the problem, but by 1985 there was no right path for Soviet Russia. I suppose there is a solution. *Gorbachev (can't be arsed to find the name of a 70s reformer) gets into power in the early 70s and reforms. Elections happen in 78 and Zhirinovsky wins, setting up a neo-fascist Russia. You then have a *three-way* Cold War - a socialist Continent, a libertarian US and Anglosphere, and a fascist Russia (and friends).
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Aug 7, 2019 17:18:41 GMT
The problem with a long-lasting Cold War is that the hardliners - Cheremko, Brezhnev, Andoropov - weren't doing well for the economy. Gorbachev's reforms exacerbated the problem, but by 1985 there was no right path for Soviet Russia. I suppose there is a solution. *Gorbachev (can't be arsed to find the name of a 70s reformer) gets into power in the early 70s and reforms. Elections happen in 78 and Zhirinovsky wins, setting up a neo-fascist Russia. You then have a *three-way* Cold War - a socialist Continent, a libertarian US and Anglosphere, and a fascist Russia (and friends). How easy would it be to get the USSR's population--most of whom have been made to believe for decades that communism was the Soviet Dream, and that their mainly reactionary opposition was the Devil in the flesh--to accept a fascistic leader, though? Granted, I know that J. Stalin ruled the country with an iron (or more appropriately, steel) fist, but that was before he wound up denounced and society was liberalized by N. Khrushchev, at least to my knowledge.
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Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Aug 7, 2019 18:40:50 GMT
The problem with a long-lasting Cold War is that the hardliners - Cheremko, Brezhnev, Andoropov - weren't doing well for the economy. Gorbachev's reforms exacerbated the problem, but by 1985 there was no right path for Soviet Russia. I suppose there is a solution. *Gorbachev (can't be arsed to find the name of a 70s reformer) gets into power in the early 70s and reforms. Elections happen in 78 and Zhirinovsky wins, setting up a neo-fascist Russia. You then have a *three-way* Cold War - a socialist Continent, a libertarian US and Anglosphere, and a fascist Russia (and friends). How easy would it be to get the USSR's population--most of whom have been made to believe for decades that communism was the Soviet Dream, and that their mainly reactionary opposition was the Devil in the flesh--to accept a fascistic leader, though? Granted, I know that J. Stalin ruled the country with an iron (or more appropriately, steel) fist, but that was before he wound up denounced and society was liberalized by N. Khrushchev, at least to my knowledge. Apologies. Fascist is probably the wrong word here. What I meant to say is that ogliarchs would take over (as per 90s Russia) massively f***ing up the economy (as per 90s Russia), with the children of the 60s just being able to vote, discovering that the West isn't a land of gold and voting for the ”nice” man who promises to send all the Karelians back to Finland and give everyone plenty of roubles. I could see disaffected ex-Communists voting for a very ”blue Labour” populist, leading to a National Socialist* Russia (and probably Milosevič in Serbia) vs a libertarian Republican and Thatcher vs a post May 68 France. * Yes, I know that refers to the Nazis.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Aug 7, 2019 23:31:19 GMT
How easy would it be to get the USSR's population--most of whom have been made to believe for decades that communism was the Soviet Dream, and that their mainly reactionary opposition was the Devil in the flesh--to accept a fascistic leader, though? Granted, I know that J. Stalin ruled the country with an iron (or more appropriately, steel) fist, but that was before he wound up denounced and society was liberalized by N. Khrushchev, at least to my knowledge. Apologies. Fascist is probably the wrong word here. What I meant to say is that ogliarchs would take over (as per 90s Russia) massively f***ing up the economy (as per 90s Russia), with the children of the 60s just being able to vote, discovering that the West isn't a land of gold and voting for the ”nice” man who promises to send all the Karelians back to Finland and give everyone plenty of roubles. I could see disaffected ex-Communists voting for a very ”blue Labour” populist, leading to a National Socialist* Russia (and probably Milosevič in Serbia) vs a libertarian Republican and Thatcher vs a post May 68 France. * Yes, I know that refers to the Nazis. Alright, I guess that clarifies things. While I can't speak too much on the other geopolitical implications of a longer-lasting Soviet Russia, why would US leadership at this time trend in a more libertarian-leaning direction ITTL? Maybe Ronald Reagan & Company will work to further distance themselves from authoritarianism by promoting more social liberties alongside their revival of fiscal conservatism?
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Post by EwellHolmes on Aug 8, 2019 1:59:17 GMT
To the present.
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Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Aug 8, 2019 8:15:28 GMT
Apologies. Fascist is probably the wrong word here. What I meant to say is that ogliarchs would take over (as per 90s Russia) massively f***ing up the economy (as per 90s Russia), with the children of the 60s just being able to vote, discovering that the West isn't a land of gold and voting for the ”nice” man who promises to send all the Karelians back to Finland and give everyone plenty of roubles. I could see disaffected ex-Communists voting for a very ”blue Labour” populist, leading to a National Socialist* Russia (and probably Milosevič in Serbia) vs a libertarian Republican and Thatcher vs a post May 68 France. * Yes, I know that refers to the Nazis. Alright, I guess that clarifies things. While I can't speak too much on the other geopolitical implications of a longer-lasting Soviet Russia, why would US leadership at this time trend in a more libertarian-leaning direction ITTL? Maybe Ronald Reagan & Company will work to further distance themselves from authoritarianism by promoting more social liberties alongside their revival of fiscal conservatism? If France goes red or at least socialist in May 68, Britain and America will likely swing the other way IMHO.
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