Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on May 2, 2019 0:20:05 GMT
From 1947 to 1991, the United States and the Soviet Union were the reigning superpowers of the world. One was a republic that championed free market capitalism, the other a far-left polity that sought global communism. Naturally, this brought the two colossi into a multi-decade standoff; proxy wars and militarization, coups and rigged elections, and spying and subterfuge characterized the long, potentially world-destroying tension now known as the Cold War.
Fortunately, the immediate threat posed by such conflict dissipated on December 25, 1991--the USSR peacefully dissolved into separate states that more-or-less gave up on communism. Those born after its collapse never knew a world where the Bolshevik boogeyman threatened their nation, their future, or their way of life. But could they have?
How long could the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union have lasted, and what would it take to make that so? Furthermore, what would result from continued tensions in a world where communism possibly remains a dominant competitor into the 21st Century?
Thank you in advance,
Zyobot
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 2, 2019 3:50:45 GMT
From 1947 to 1991, the United States and the Soviet Union were the reigning superpowers of the world. One was a republic that championed free market capitalism, the other a far-left polity that sought global communism. Naturally, this brought the two colossi into a multi-decade standoff; proxy wars and militarization, coups and rigged elections, and spying and subterfuge characterized the long, potentially world-destroying tension now known as the Cold War. Fortunately, the immediate threat posed by such conflict dissipated on December 25, 1991--the USSR peacefully dissolved into separate states that more-or-less gave up on communism. Those born after its collapse never knew a world where the Bolshevik boogeyman threatened their nation, their future, or their way of life. But could they have? How long could the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union have lasted, and what would it take to make that so? Furthermore, what would result from continued tensions in a world where communism possibly remains a dominant competitor into the 21st Century? Thank you in advance, Zyobot The 1991 Soviet coup d'état attempt having seceded but without World War III starting, it could give the Soviet Union some extra years. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2019 17:34:12 GMT
Once the Warsaw Pact countries started seceding, the game was over.
Prevent that, and the USSR might hold together longer.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on May 2, 2019 17:36:30 GMT
Once the Warsaw Pact countries started seceding, the game was over. Prevent that, and the USSR might hold together longer. How much longer, would you say? 5 years? 10 years? Maybe even into the current year of 2019, if we're feeling quite lucky? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 2, 2019 17:58:42 GMT
I would say it would need a substantial degree of reform, which I suspect would be difficult given the vested interests or possibly some dramatic war which the SU manages to pull through. Basically like WWII gave the SU a degree of respectability in the eyes of its subjects. However would need something where the rulers could pull through without serious lasting defeats and some ability to claim victory. Possibly a major clash with China or they go for western Europe and succeed?
Or as I said in another thread something like James's Red Dawn TL but a coup gives Moscow competent leadership before the situation becomes too bad. If they kept the WP powers together and most/all of their allies, with the hammering China and the US especially took in that conflict and the ending of NATO it would be possible for the leadership to claim at least a level of victory.
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2019 23:27:47 GMT
]How much longer, would you say? 5 years? 10 years? Maybe even into the current year of 2019, if we're feeling quite lucky? Repression is rarely effective, and merely delays the inevitable. The USSR might survive long enough to veto UN Security Council action against Iraq, but not much longer than that. |
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on May 2, 2019 23:31:28 GMT
]How much longer, would you say? 5 years? 10 years? Maybe even into the current year of 2019, if we're feeling quite lucky? Repression is rarely effective, and merely delays the inevitable. The USSR might survive long enough to veto UN Security Council action against Iraq, but not much longer than that. That's assuming that Iraq or a close-enough equivalent even happens ITTL. Then again, America was plenty interventionist even with the USSR to counterbalance it over the course of the 20th Century, so maybe a US-launched invasion that the Soviets attempt to veto might occur here too. |
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2019 23:41:44 GMT
That's assuming that Iraq or a close-enough equivalent even happens ITTL. Well, the US government allowed the invasion to happen, and the Soviets would have no incentive to stop it - indeed the invasion of Kuwait will distract attention away from their acts of repression in Eastern Europe, just as the US invasion of Panama would legitimise them. |
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James G
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Post by James G on May 3, 2019 18:13:30 GMT
The world would be a very different place today if the USSR had survived. So much from 1991 would have changed. However, other things would still be the same. It all depends upon so many butterflies.
I've seen it said many times that the collapse in 1991 was inevitable. It certainly wasn't. The USSR wouldn't have been able to go down the same route as China but there are other directions it could have taken. Or, despite everything, it could have just carried on its stagnate form despite every challenge thrown at it.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on May 3, 2019 20:58:58 GMT
The world would be a very different place today if the USSR had survived. So much from 1991 would have changed. However, other things would still be the same. It all depends upon so many butterflies. I've seen it said many times that the collapse in 1991 was inevitable. It certainly wasn't. The USSR wouldn't have been able to go down the same route as China but there are other directions it could have taken. Or, despite everything, it could have just carried on its stagnate form despite every challenge thrown at it. Any ideas on what direction post-1991 history could’ve gone in had the USSR lasted into the 21st Century, @james G ? A very, if not totally different post-PoD world is basically the default assumption at this point. I feel inclined to say that China, with its more capitalistic economic reforms and all the wealth generated by their implementation, would’ve still taken the lead amongst the Communist World. If the USSR can’t adopt similar policies let alone overcome nationwide stagnation, well... |
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James G
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Post by James G on May 5, 2019 19:11:23 GMT
The world would be a very different place today if the USSR had survived. So much from 1991 would have changed. However, other things would still be the same. It all depends upon so many butterflies. I've seen it said many times that the collapse in 1991 was inevitable. It certainly wasn't. The USSR wouldn't have been able to go down the same route as China but there are other directions it could have taken. Or, despite everything, it could have just carried on its stagnate form despite every challenge thrown at it. Any ideas on what direction post-1991 history could’ve gone in had the USSR lasted into the 21st Century, @james G ? A very, if not totally different post-PoD world is basically the default assumption at this point. I feel inclined to say that China, with its more capitalistic economic reforms and all the wealth generated by their implementation, would’ve still taken the lead amongst the Communist World. If the USSR can’t adopt similar policies let alone overcome nationwide stagnation, well... I didn't see this before: I can only be tagged as jimmygreen like lordroel can only be as admin. It is a thing with the @ based on usernames when signing up and not names after changes. What direction? So many variants! The USSR could have possibly used its oil & gas wealth like it has now to give it a role in Western Europe but remaining as a communist state would see more suspicion than there currently is. That is just one idea. But the variables are so many. This would mean a truly different Middle East especially, probably the breakup of Yugoslavia too. The internet would have far earlier been a battlefield for the USSR/Russia as well. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 5, 2019 19:14:15 GMT
Any ideas on what direction post-1991 history could’ve gone in had the USSR lasted into the 21st Century, @james G ? A very, if not totally different post-PoD world is basically the default assumption at this point. I feel inclined to say that China, with its more capitalistic economic reforms and all the wealth generated by their implementation, would’ve still taken the lead amongst the Communist World. If the USSR can’t adopt similar policies let alone overcome nationwide stagnation, well... I didn't see this before: I can only be tagged as jimmygreen like lordroel can only be as admin. It is a thing with the @ based on usernames when signing up and not names after changes. But even if you are tagged as jimmygreen, you name still shows up as James G, mabey you schould go around as The Member formerly known as jimmygreen. I do know about a TL called the last war, which i think James also knows about at the TBO forum. |
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James G
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Post by James G on May 5, 2019 19:18:40 GMT
I didn't see this before: I can only be tagged as jimmygreen like lordroel can only be as admin. It is a thing with the @ based on usernames when signing up and not names after changes. But even if you are tagged as jimmygreen, you name still shows up as James G , mabey you schould go around as The Member formerly known as jimmygreen. I do know about a TL called the last war, which i think James also knows about at the TBO forum. That is true. But someone has to type jimmygreen instead of James G for it to work. Na, I don't like that name! Yes, good story though I am unsure about some of the butterflies. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 5, 2019 19:20:11 GMT
But even if you are tagged as jimmygreen, you name still shows up as James G , mabey you schould go around as The Member formerly known as jimmygreen. I do know about a TL called the last war, which i think James also knows about at the TBO forum. That is true. But someone has to type jimmygreen instead of James G for it to work. Na, I don't like that name! Yes, good story though I am unsure about some of the butterflies. You mean the Soviet Union surviving until 2005 ore something else. |
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James G
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Post by James G on May 5, 2019 19:24:49 GMT
That is true. But someone has to type jimmygreen instead of James G for it to work. Na, I don't like that name! Yes, good story though I am unsure about some of the butterflies. You mean the Soviet Union surviving until 2005 ore something else. Nope, it is the particulars of the butterflies. But I don't wish to go down that route here - picking on the story details - because I like and respect the author plus also his work is still amazing regardless of what I am unsure about. |
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