Post by stevep on Apr 25, 2019 10:44:44 GMT
epichistory
It sounds like the key points of disagreement/uncertainty are:
a) Whether a Yugoslav coup against his puppet regime would still have occurred [probably likely] and then prompted his enraged response as OTL. There are arguments that he wouldn't have bothered but also counter arguments that he would have. Such as that it was prompted more by emotions than by actual military need as the Yugoslav government OTL hadn't clearly broken with the Axis and posed no real threat and that with no war in Greece it would be easier for Germany to take out Yugoslavia alone, which might also serve as a warning to keep other nations in line while Germany made its attack on the SU.
b) When those Soviet reinforcements arrived. The video I mentioned actually gave no details on the temporal distribution of new units arriving - or destroyed units being recreated which often happened. A source book I have does have some info but again for the Soviets only mentions creation/deployment by year rather than month. Your source does suggest that most of the new units were only organised in the last couple of months and hence might not stop an early attack on Moscow.
c) I think you still underestimate the problems of logistics. Its not just a matter of supplies stockpiled at the border but also shipping them to the front line, which would be an even bigger task in your proposed offensive as it has to be done faster. Also while the SU has a better railway network than the Balkans is it any real use to the Germans until the tracks involved have been regauged? Until that point they would have to transfer any items from standard gauge to Russia gauged tracks wherever the two met and assuming they can capture working Soviet locomotives and rolling stock.
d) The big one of whether the Germans could still take a city the size of Moscow at the end of such a long supply line. Especially before Nov when worsening weather and increasing numbers of new units replaced the militia and civilians that would probably form the bulk of the garrison in the scenario your proposing. Because of its population and importance to the Russians, in terms of prestige, transportation and industrial they would definitely fight hard here. If they haven't secured control of it by then, or possibly by October when the mud crippled movement the Germans are never going to.
e) The region did produce a lot of industrial items and with other losses elsewhere the damage to the SU would be huge. However part of this loss was disruption as a lot of industrial capacity was being shipped east and it took some time for this to be set up again and supply and production reorganised. As such while the damage would be massive it wouldn't be as great as sheer figures from the production drop in Jun-Dec 41 would suggest.
f) I agree that Leningrad was an important production centre and that its likely to be lost even if Moscow isn't - simply because supplies and forces sent to the region OTL would go to the Moscow battle instead. Suspect that few if any of the items produced there were actually sent to the rest of the front line once the siege actually started as that would seem impossible. However it is going to be another big blow to the SU.
Steve