James G
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Post by James G on Mar 17, 2019 18:55:57 GMT
The regime in East Germany fell in October 1989 and the country was reunified with West Germany in October 1990.
Can those in power stay a little longer though?
My thinking is that the Peaceful Revolution could have been bloody and the regime held on even with everyone, even the Soviets against them. However, things would surely fall apart by the time Christmas 1991 comes about and the Soviet Union falls.
Is this plausible? Would the regime fight? Could it force the security forces to fight their own people and hold for a little while longer?
The country was doomed, I understand, but things surely didn't have to go down the way they did with so little resistance from the regime, yes?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 17, 2019 19:03:24 GMT
The regime in East Germany fell in October 1989 and the country was reunified with West Germany in October 1990. Can those in power stay a little longer though? My thinking is that the Peaceful Revolution could have been bloody and the regime held on even with everyone, even the Soviets against them. However, things would surely fall apart by the time Christmas 1991 comes about and the Soviet Union falls. Is this plausible? Would the regime fight? Could it force the security forces to fight their own people and hold for a little while longer? The country was doomed, I understand, but things surely didn't have to go down the way they did with so little resistance from the regime, yes? That is also i have wondered, despite it having stuff like the Stasi, this is one of the What If Warsaw Pact countries i alway wonder how it it would look like if it had remained a DDR a little bit longer, but if Belarus mange to survive, why not the DDR. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 17, 2019 19:37:58 GMT
It really was impossible for East Germany to do a Belarus.
East German debt, easy escape to the West and the utter surrender of the organs of state brought them down. Bare in mind too that Belarus wasn't at first under the dictatorship it is now. There was a period of - relative - liberation first.
East Germany was thus doomed. I just think maybe if the leadership decided to make a fight of it, they could have lasted a bit longer.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 17, 2019 19:44:50 GMT
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Mar 17, 2019 22:45:20 GMT
A simple misunderstanding on the part of the confused border guard had opened the floodgates to the East Germans seeking to flee to the FRG. If he had been given a much clearer direction regarding the crossings, the exodus would have been controlled.
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 17, 2019 23:04:01 GMT
A simple misunderstanding on the part of the confused border guard had opened the floodgates to the East Germans seeking to flee to the FRG. If he had been given a much clearer direction regarding the crossings, the exodus would have been controlled. That is a very good point. Wasn't he just a bog-standard Communist bureaucrat in front of the pesky Western press rather than an experienced diplomat? |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Mar 18, 2019 1:47:49 GMT
He was actually working as a border guard in the place where he misspoke, and the phrase was "immediately" after being asked when will the change in policy will occur.
Other than that, it is extremely hard for East Germany to survive, with the brain drain being the main issue.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 18, 2019 4:45:14 GMT
He was actually working as a border guard in the place where he misspoke, and the phrase was "immediately" after being asked when will the change in policy will occur. Other than that, it is extremely hard for East Germany to survive, with the brain drain being the main issue. A yes, this famous scene. |
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Post by Anchises on Mar 18, 2019 11:35:33 GMT
The question is how much longer:
1) A few months longer certainly is possible even after Krenz took over. With a little more competence the inevitable could have been postponed. Opening the border in 1990 was possible, it was a serious of blunders that lead to the border falling in 1989.
2) If we are talking years we have to prevent the Krenz Putsch from happening. When Krenz, and with him the more liberal elements in the SED took over, a crackdown by the Stasi and Volkspolizei was out of the question.
In 1989 Mielke or someone like him would have to take over. And even that it is dubious if Stasi, NVA and Volkspolizei actually would follow orders to crackdown on the Monday Demonstrations. For a longer surviving GDR the most important factor would be continued backing from the Soviet Union.
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mullauna
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Post by mullauna on Mar 18, 2019 19:26:36 GMT
What if Honecker died in 1984-85? what happens then is more interesting.
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 18, 2019 20:27:24 GMT
The question is how much longer: 1) A few months longer certainly is possible even after Krenz took over. With a little more competence the inevitable could have been postponed. Opening the border in 1990 was possible, it was a serious of blunders that lead to the border falling in 1989. 2) If we are talking years we have to prevent the Krenz Putsch from happening. When Krenz, and with him the more liberal elements in the SED took over, a crackdown by the Stasi and Volkspolizei was out of the question. In 1989 Mielke or someone like him would have to take over. And even that it is dubious if Stasi, NVA and Volkspolizei actually would follow orders to crackdown on the Monday Demonstrations. For a longer surviving GDR the most important factor would be continued backing from the Soviet Union. It is all very unlikely but that was why I wanted to speculate because it certainly wasn't impossible. Should the security services start shooting, Western sanctions come and things would only get worse. Did you know that the Stasi had 'a plan' to survive... there are people who say it happened in Russia too. I'll look for the reference but there was a plan for the security forces to falsify democracy and run things through fronts for a time and then take over. it sounds like a mad conspiracy theory but they put plenty of thought into it. I'll try to find it. |
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perkeo
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Post by perkeo on Mar 19, 2019 6:26:52 GMT
I simply cannot imagine the East German regime survive the collapse of the Warsaw Pact. The NVA, being a conscript army, would have to fight its own reservists and defectors. The professional and loyal troops are hopelessly outnumbered.
Either the Sowjets save the SED Regime or they don’t. In the long term, this will likely be settled with a West German check. The variable is the number of zeros on that check, which could be A LOT larger than IOTL.
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 26, 2019 21:20:00 GMT
I simply cannot imagine the East German regime survive the collapse of the Warsaw Pact. The NVA, being a conscript army, would have to fight its own reservists and defectors. The professional and loyal troops are hopelessly outnumbered. Either the Sowjets save the SED Regime or they don’t. In the long term, this will likely be settled with a West German check. The variable is the number of zeros on that check, which could be A LOT larger than IOTL. I agree: the regime fighting its people would be doomed. Maybe the situation would have been like Romania though with a quick fight and not major destruction leading to that possible later cash injection if reunification were to happen. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 26, 2019 21:24:17 GMT
I simply cannot imagine the East German regime survive the collapse of the Warsaw Pact. The NVA, being a conscript army, would have to fight its own reservists and defectors. The professional and loyal troops are hopelessly outnumbered. Either the Sowjets save the SED Regime or they don’t. In the long term, this will likely be settled with a West German check. The variable is the number of zeros on that check, which could be A LOT larger than IOTL. I agree: the regime fighting its people would be doomed. Maybe the situation would have been like Romania though with a quick fight and not major destruction leading to that possible later cash injection if reunification were to happen.
The other question if the Soviets weren't offering support and there was serious unrest being brutally suppressed by the regime what would NATO and/or W Germany do? I rather suspect that if the Soviets were no longer a threat the west Germans at least are unlikely to stand on the sidelines and do nothing.
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 26, 2019 21:28:03 GMT
I agree: the regime fighting its people would be doomed. Maybe the situation would have been like Romania though with a quick fight and not major destruction leading to that possible later cash injection if reunification were to happen.
The other question if the Soviets weren't offering support and there was serious unrest being brutally suppressed by the regime what would NATO and/or W Germany do? I rather suspect that if the Soviets were no longer a threat the west Germans at least are unlikely to stand on the sidelines and do nothing.
Invade? There remained huge numbers of Soviet troops in East Germany up until 1994. So if the West Germans go in, even declaring peaceful intent, they would have to consider that an accident might occur with Soviet forces... and that, I am sure, would stop them and anyone else going in. The whole country was teeming with Soviet forces and while possibly avoidable, it is a big ask and would mean making sure accidents don't happen when, by the nature of them, accidents do happen. |
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