stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 21, 2019 15:47:51 GMT
There's also the Baltic German minority there as well, though given the conflict, the Tsarist authorities there might do to the Baltic German minority the same way Stalin did with the North Caucasians and Crimean Tatars that were suspected of collaboration, as well as what happened to the German population outside Germany after 1945. The Jewish population within the Pale of Settlement would actually greet the Germans as liberators, and there were some Jews who fled from Russia to Germany after the 1905 Revolution. Another thing too is that if the Ottoman Empire had also joined WWI on the side of the Central Powers in a Russia First scenario, they would quickly take some Georgian and Armenian territory, but might end up failing to capture the entire Caucasus region. IOTL, Enver Pasha led an Ottoman force that fought a disastrous losing battle in Sarikamish that resulted in a huge Russian victory, primarily because of his incompetence. Also, the Russians could supply arms to Armenian resistance groups if they chose to revolt against the Ottomans.
The Balts as a whole might welcome German 'liberation', not just the German minority there. Doubt the Russians would do too much against them before a German attack as they didn't tend to be that repressive or that organised in such repression. However it could be quite nasty if after defeating a German invasion, which is not impossible, the Russians found a lot of the population had collaborated with the Germans during an occupation of the region.
Yes the Ottomans are almost certain to join the CPs and could well cause the Russians some problems, even apart from closing the straits to their trade. However Enver Pasha is likely to really foul things up as OTL, like trying to launch an offensive into eastern Anatolia in winter! I suspect that part of the reason for the massacres of the Armenians the following year were in part because they were scapegoated for the defeat to hide his responsibility for the epic failure.
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Post by Anchises on Mar 6, 2019 14:33:29 GMT
This is based on my assumption that Germany would attack Russia first by invading Russian Poland, just so we're clear on it. Kinda like a 1914 version of Operation: Barbarossa. However, the German Army of 1914 wouldn't make the same mistakes as the OTL Wehrmacht did in WWII.
Its not going to be anything like as brutal to the assorted Slavic groups and is likely to pick up some support from the Baltic populations and ironically given OTL quite possibly the substantial Jewish population.
However the Russian and very likely also the other Orthodox groups are going to be a lot more supportive to the Russian empire than many were initially in 41 and in the event of a German invasion of Russia there will be a rallying around the nation, church and monarchy.
Also the German army is facing much greater problems than OTL in WWII. There are virtually no motorised units and very primitive a/c so fast breakthroughs are going to be limited to the speed that infantry can march. Cavalry can go somewhat faster but are very vulnerable to infantry if they outdistance their own. Possibly even more so their going to have problems keeping the vital artillery anywhere near a moving front and that's probably the greatest advantage the Germans have over Russia.
Railways will help somewhat but are thinner on the ground and need to be converted to standard gauge, even without any sabotage by retreating forces or raids by guerillas, Cossack's etc.
This will be even worse if the Russians know of this change in German strategy before the invasion, which is almost certain to happen. Then they would probably spend less on railways into the region and more on defenses and upgrading fortifications. They won't be charging to attack the bulk of the German army and quite possibly not greatly against the Austrians either. As said in earlier posts that will be good for the Austrians in the short term but even better for the Russians. They can pull back eastwards, both lengthening the logistical lines of the CPs forces and the entire front.
Its still possible that the Germans can win in the east, especially if Nickolas loses his nerve and/or is offered a very moderate peace. However its also quite likely that the battle will wage for at least as long as OTL and over a substantially greater area, stretching the Germans very thin and bleeding them very heavily. Also that it could end with some serious disasters for them. Not going to be a single campaign disaster as in 1812 but over 2-3 years Germany could lose as great a proportion of its manpower as Napoleon did. The one advantage the Germans might have, presuming that Britain stays neutral, is that a German collapse in the east is likely to lead to a negotiated peace as I doubt the Russians will have the resources, especially if largely cut off from allies and as the CPs retire to a shorter line, to march deep into the German heartland.
The Germans don't need WW2 style breakthroughs in WW1 to seriously damage the Russian war effort.
Russia IOTL wasn't that badly overstretched initially because Germany neglected its Eastern Front. This allowed the Russians to focus on A-H.
ITTL Russia will need most of its strength to stop the German advance. A-H is going to have all the breathing room it needs, allowing them to field a truly capable army in 1915 or 1916.
Russia likely won't be able to hold Poland if Germany commits serious strength to the Eastern Front from the start. Actually it is not unlikely that Germany captures most of Poland in 1914.
This loss of critical industries and military forts is going to start the munition crisis even sooner. The transportation crisis I mentioned in my first post is also going to happen sooner.
Russia probably fights a losing Battle in 1915/1916 while the Germans grind through the Baltic States. Then Austria-Hungary is likely to pull a reverse Brussilov. The Common Army will be vastly stronger than IOTL and likely able to smash the Russian Southern Front. With Russia not being able to stop the steady German advance, only slowing it, and A-H penetrating deep into the Ukraine, the Tsar might actually sue for peace ITTL.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 6, 2019 15:32:36 GMT
Its not going to be anything like as brutal to the assorted Slavic groups and is likely to pick up some support from the Baltic populations and ironically given OTL quite possibly the substantial Jewish population.
However the Russian and very likely also the other Orthodox groups are going to be a lot more supportive to the Russian empire than many were initially in 41 and in the event of a German invasion of Russia there will be a rallying around the nation, church and monarchy.
Also the German army is facing much greater problems than OTL in WWII. There are virtually no motorised units and very primitive a/c so fast breakthroughs are going to be limited to the speed that infantry can march. Cavalry can go somewhat faster but are very vulnerable to infantry if they outdistance their own. Possibly even more so their going to have problems keeping the vital artillery anywhere near a moving front and that's probably the greatest advantage the Germans have over Russia.
Railways will help somewhat but are thinner on the ground and need to be converted to standard gauge, even without any sabotage by retreating forces or raids by guerillas, Cossack's etc.
This will be even worse if the Russians know of this change in German strategy before the invasion, which is almost certain to happen. Then they would probably spend less on railways into the region and more on defenses and upgrading fortifications. They won't be charging to attack the bulk of the German army and quite possibly not greatly against the Austrians either. As said in earlier posts that will be good for the Austrians in the short term but even better for the Russians. They can pull back eastwards, both lengthening the logistical lines of the CPs forces and the entire front.
Its still possible that the Germans can win in the east, especially if Nickolas loses his nerve and/or is offered a very moderate peace. However its also quite likely that the battle will wage for at least as long as OTL and over a substantially greater area, stretching the Germans very thin and bleeding them very heavily. Also that it could end with some serious disasters for them. Not going to be a single campaign disaster as in 1812 but over 2-3 years Germany could lose as great a proportion of its manpower as Napoleon did. The one advantage the Germans might have, presuming that Britain stays neutral, is that a German collapse in the east is likely to lead to a negotiated peace as I doubt the Russians will have the resources, especially if largely cut off from allies and as the CPs retire to a shorter line, to march deep into the German heartland.
The Germans don't need WW2 style breakthroughs in WW1 to seriously damage the Russian war effort.
Russia IOTL wasn't that badly overstretched initially because Germany neglected its Eastern Front. This allowed the Russians to focus on A-H.
ITTL Russia will need most of its strength to stop the German advance. A-H is going to have all the breathing room it needs, allowing them to field a truly capable army in 1915 or 1916.
Russia likely won't be able to hold Poland if Germany commits serious strength to the Eastern Front from the start. Actually it is not unlikely that Germany captures most of Poland in 1914.
This loss of critical industries and military forts is going to start the munition crisis even sooner. The transportation crisis I mentioned in my first post is also going to happen sooner.
Russia probably fights a losing Battle in 1915/1916 while the Germans grind through the Baltic States. Then Austria-Hungary is likely to pull a reverse Brussilov. The Common Army will be vastly stronger than IOTL and likely able to smash the Russian Southern Front. With Russia not being able to stop the steady German advance, only slowing it, and A-H penetrating deep into the Ukraine, the Tsar might actually sue for peace ITTL.
Possibly, if Austria gets its act together but its still going to be a big ask considering the logistical problems the attackers will face, and the largest casualties they will suffer by attacking repeatedly in the east, especially if that's often with limited artillery support. A lot would depend on what happens on the western front and how long before France gets a coherent offensive strategy together. Also what happens with Britain and Italy.
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