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Post by simon darkshade on Jan 6, 2024 14:32:00 GMT
I’m going to put together a few more prices/cost of living tomorrow, as that is an area of social history that I quite enjoy.
Just to provide some context as to how they will be a bit different, beyond the basic level, is to remember that in @ 1972, Britain had a miners strike and quite profound inflation, with the three day week, energy blackouts and record current account deficits following in 73 and 74. None of that is present here, but sometimes the profound nature of the difference can be best illustrated at the coalface of food, household goods, petrol, holidays, cars, houses, luxuries and so forth. As Harper Lee (through the mouthpiece of Atticus Finch) might put it, this helps us get into someone’s shoes and walk around in them for a while.
I’ve got the data to extend the comparison across the Atlantic, so there’ll be something from there as well.
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Post by simon darkshade on Jan 7, 2024 6:13:31 GMT
1972 Cost of Living (Britain)
Average annual salary of £2754 or £52.96/week
New house £4236
Colour television £95
Men's watch: £5-10
Pocket calculator: £49
New family car £529
Transistor radio: £4
Gramophone: £15
Washing Machine: £65
Electric Typewriter: £12
Sewing Machine: £25
Polaroid Camera: £7
Pint of Bitter: 6p
Packet of 20 cigarettes: 1s 6d
Bottle of whisky: £2 6s
Fish and Chips (1 serve): 2s
Box of Matches: 1/2d
Rent (1 bedroom flat): £2/week
Diamond engagement ring: £25+
32 volume set of Encyclopedia Britannica: £96
Paperback Novel: 2s
Newspaper: 1p
First class stamp: 1p
Gallon of Petrol: 4s
Cinema ticket: 2s
Monopoly: £1 2/4
Box of 20 .303" bullets: £1
Pair of men's socks: 1s
Men's shirt: 2s
Woman's dress: £6
Suit: £20
Men's overcoat: £12
London to Manchester 1 way rail ticket: £1 4s second class/ £2 5s first class
London to Edinburgh 1 way: £3 4s second class/£5 2s first class
Feeding a Family of Five for a Week on £13 10/6
Essentials: £1 11s 3d
Pint of Milk (3d) x 21 5s 3d
White Sliced Loaf (6d) x 7 3s 6d
1lb Cheddar (3s) x 2 6s
1/4lb of Tea (2s) 2s
2 x 1lb of Butter (2s) 4s
2 x 3lb flour 1s
3 dozen eggs 3s
3 x 12oz Cornflakes 3s
2lb Oats 1s 6d
2 x 2lb sugar 2s
1lb Lard/Dripping 1s
Pantry: £1 5s 6d
Tinned Soup: 1s
Tinned Carrots: 1s
Tinned Green Beans: 1s
Tinned Peas: 1s
Tinned Baked Beans: 1s
Tinned Stewed Steak: 2/6
Tinned Salmon: 2s
Tinned Sardines: 1s
Tinned Ham: 4s
Tin of Corned Beef: 3s
Tinned Peaches 2s
Tinned Pineapple 2s
Tinned Strawberries 2s
Tinned Fruit Cocktail 2s
Meat: £6 15s 6d
2lb Bacon 10s
2lb pork sausages: 10s
2lb New Zealand lamb chops £1
5lb beef sirloin joint: £2 6/4
2 1/2 lb beef rump steak: £2 1/2
1 chicken 8s
(2lb minced beef: £1)
(5lb leg of mutton £2)
(2lb corned beef: £1)
(2lb ham: £1)
Sauces/Condiments: 8s
12oz Heinz ketchup 1s
12oz Heinz salad cream 1s
16oz Jar of Honey 2s
16oz Jar of Strawberry Jam 2s
16oz Jar of Marmalade 2s
Fish: 8s
1lb Kippers: 1s
2lb Cod: 5s
2lb Fish Fingers: 4s
Fruit: 12s 8 d
2lb Apples: 6d
1lb Pears: 3d
1lb Bananas: 6d
1lb Strawberries: 4d
1lb Oranges: 2s 1d
1lb Grapes: 3s
2 pints Orange Juice: 6s
Vegetables: £1 5s
10lb potatoes: 8s
4lb cabbage: 2s
3lb carrots: 3s
2 x 2lb peas: 2s
2lb onions: 2s
2lb cauliflower: 2s
2lb turnips/swedes: 6d
2lb tomatoes: 2s
2lb cucumber: 1s 6d
4lb lettuce: 2s
Assorted: 10s 8 d
Large pack of crisps 1s
8oz bar Cadbury's Dairy Milk Chocolate 1s
1 packet of Paxo stuffing 6d
1 packet chocolate biscuits 6s
1lb sweets 2d
2lb Ice Cream: 2s
Under Construction Notes:
Christmas: 25lb Turkey (£2 10/6), 18lb ham, 5lb gammon (£1 2/2), 12lb rib of beef (£2 8/5), 3lb sprouts (3s), 10lb potatoes (8s), 3lb swedes (9d), 3lb parsnips (6d), 4lb peas (2s), 4lb carrots (4s), 2lb cauliflower (2s), 4lb chipolatas (16s), 2lb bacon (10s), 2 chickens (16s) + Milk, Flour, Sugar, Eggs, Cream, Cheddar;
Christmas Pudding, Mince Pies, Christmas Cake, Fruit Pies, Jelly, Yule Log, Trifle, Yule Salad (Fruit Salad); Smoked Salmon, Prawns
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Post by simon darkshade on Jan 11, 2024 10:10:29 GMT
I’ve made some small adjustments to the previous post, based on revision of the amount of food (meat) reasonably consumed in an average week, with some other prices now indicated in brackets to provide additional context beyond the sample grocery list.
This takes the price down to £13 10/6, but that is likely to be a bit lower in many cases on account of:
- Home vegetable gardens/allotments
- A very large number of people keeping chickens for eggs
- Free school dinners providing for five meals a week for the children of many families
By the end of 1973, with further advances in modern farming techniques, there could be a fall towards the £10 mark, even accounting for more meat and fish consumption. With falling power prices and consistently low petrol prices, this is going to further keep the general cost of living under control.
A few other potential/general expenses:
Wedding: £800
Child’s bicycle: £20
Teddy Bear: 12s
New D&D game: £2 5s
Monthly Electricity bill: £5 2/6
British Railways Monthly Season Ticket: £10
Week’s Holiday for 5 at Butlin’s: £49
Week’s Holiday for 2 in Minorca: £125
Mortgage: £87
Week’s Family Holiday for 5 in West Indies: £300
Monthly Mortgage: £16
Year’s School Fees at Eton: £525
Year’s Minor Public School Fees: £240
Income tax for Mr. Average, on the aforementioned annual wage of £2754, is £300 16s, based on a generally lighter individual burden than @.
How? Historically in 1972, the first £2500 was taxed at 25%, with sums over that charged at a quite high rate: (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1970/24/part/II/chapter/I/enacted?view=plain )
Excess Rate
The first £500 35%
The next £500 37.5%
The next £1,000 42.5%
The next £1,000 47.5%
The next £1,000 52.5%
The next £2,000 57.5%
The next £2,000 62.5%
The next £2,000 67.5%
The next £3,000 72.5%
The remainder 75%
Dark Earth:
Tax Brackets:
0-£2500: 10%
£2500-£5000: 20%
£5000-£10000: 25%
£10000-£20000: 35%
£20000+: 40%
Thus, Mr Average pays 10% of his first £2500 (£250) and 20% of the other £254 (£50 16s); in @ Britain, he’d be slugged £713 18s.
[However, it important to remember that he would be ‘Mr. Above Average’ in the @ Britain of 1972, where the average adult male weekly income was £36.60, making his tax bill around £475.75; the different prices and inflation also play merry heck with the situation.]
(A Bit on Tax
There has been discussion, by all three major parties, for the introduction of a tax free threshold for low income earners and movement on this is expected during the life of the new Parliament. As a general observation, as in many progressive tax systems, the large majority of the overall income tax ‘take’ comes from the highest brackets; in DE 1972, income tax is equivalent to 11% of the British GDP of £241,554,419,577. Of the labour force of ~79.5 million, the most tax from a group doesn’t come from the low income earners or Mr Average, but from the millionaires and indeed from those in ‘Very Wealthy’ category who earn above £100,000 a year (equivalent to $4.255 million 2024 USD, FWIW)).
He also pays £68 17s in National Insurance, for a total individual tax burden of £369 12s; VAT is incorporated into the cost of goods, along with excise, so our friend doesn’t need to do any calculations on that.
Shifting back onto food, the nominal amount that can be purchased for a lower percentage of an average male wage is substantively higher (Factoring in that ~42% of all adult women are also in the workforce and earn ~60% of the average male wage, total family income for some is even higher) and most often of a better quality.
Broadly speaking, there are far fewer processed foodstuffs, a greater proportion and availability of fresh fruit and vegetables, less snacking and availability of what we would term convenience food and virtually no ‘ready meals’.
Notes on Food from c. 1968
In Britain, food and drink standards haven't undergone the same degree of decline due to the World Wars and rationing as in @ and the culinary situation and tastes are quite Edwardian, with some differences. One is the preference for English rather than French names and labelling that grew out of traditional rivalries. The general diet of the working classes has greatly improved and there is increasing diversity of food stuffs from around the Empire and world.
- The combination of Imperial/Commonwealth food politics and domestic agricultural policy means there is quite a lot of produce available at steady prices.
- The lack of the impact of postwar austerity and rationing has meant there wasn’t the same drop off in relative quality and standards of cuisine.
- In general, there is more and better fruits and vegetables available; and more meat is consumed on a per capital basis.
- Milk and dairy consumption is quite high.
- Changes in migration patterns have meant that Indian and Chinese restaurants are still confined to the largest cities, rather than starting to spread out. The historical British culinary interest in curry has just started to really take off at this point, but here is somewhat muted and comes in the form of more Anglo-Indian adaptions: rather than a butter chicken and rice, one would find a beef curry with vegetables, onions and curry powder served with mashed potatoes.
- When Indian restaurants start to spread, they will have a much more esteemed position/cultural cachet, as well as serving some of the more elaborate dishes.
- Persian restaurants have started to spread around the great international cities in a much heavier way and more distinctly.
- Likewise, a somewhat different style of West Indian/Caribbean cooking is diffusing internationally, combining the Caribbean elements of @ with the different Anglo-Cuban evolution of that cuisine.
- Some wartime nastiness with Italy did cause some damage to the number of Italian restaurants, cafes, ice cream sellers and so forth that began to increase from the 1950s in @. Pasta is largely unknown, saved for tinned spaghetti and macaroni, and pizza is an alien foreign delicacy.
- Fewer Berni Inns as of 1968 (as compared to 1970), but other steakhouses, chophouses and carveries are a bit more common, with higher standard fare and larger portions. Their identity and style is deliberately very stereotypically British (read John Bull and The Roast Beef of Olde England) as a result of cultural differentiation and subtle government encouragement.
- Continued Ministry of Food run British Restaurants provide set menus cheaply, both as an aid to public nutrition and as a skeleton/cadre structure for expansion into wartime/crisis public feeding.
- Beyond some limited London restaurants and some places near larger US bases, the hamburger is yet to take off. There was no Wimpy’s franchise opening by Lyons in 1954.
- The major British ‘fast food’ is fish and chips, followed by meat pies and various types of roast/corned meat sandwiches.
- Pub opening and closing times were regulated to a slightly reduced degree during each world war and quickly reverted to the pre 1915 norm in 1919 and 1946 respectively, which allowed for opening between 0900 and midnight, with many city pubs and those near large factories/shipyards/armaments works having licences to open beyond and outside the norm.
- Off licences by and large don’t exist in the same broad fashion.
- No pubs are permitted to open on Sundays.
- Fish consumption is high, driven by supply and MoF encouragement, which in turn is motivated by the multiple uses/strategic value of the fishing fleet. Fish on Friday is a widely followed tradition on cultural grounds.
- There is no dearth of flavour, as some commentators have pejoratively ascribed to British food of the 1960s in @, which comes from the base quality and natural tastes of the foodstuffs, use of quite a lot of traditional herbs, no decline in the medieval/early modern English popularity of garlic and some rather special new inventions.
- These are a combination of @ spices, flavoured salts, MSG and equivalents and a bit of a fantastical Willy Wonka approach; think what Heston Blumenthal and his ilk could accomplish with real culinary magic.
- The other major food related areas where magic has played a role are storage/preservation (a subsection of which is military rations) and cooking devices. There are ovens that can roast a 25lb turkey to perfection in half an hour, cook 12 dishes differently and simultaneously and other such ‘marvels’. Frozen meals can be heated quickly with a fair bit better quality.
- More venison is generally available and mutton and veal retain their respective niches.
- Chip pans have been replaced by safer household deep fryers.
- Beer is served at 36 degrees Fahrenheit which, due to some magically assisted developments over the centuries, results in no loss of flavour profile, which is a bit richer, due to continued use of gruyt herbs as well as hops.
- Dwarven ale is stronger (16-25%), richer in taste and through some secret process, contains a fair whack of the necessary calories, vitamins and minerals needed for nominal survival, although not the lot.
- The halflings population is quite ‘food centric’ and provides many of the great cooks of England, as well as instructors at military culinary schools.
- French cuisine has less of a cachet/hold over the popular imagination as the epitome of food excellence. One of the unfortunate byproducts, from an external universe perspectives, of greater prosperity has been the lack of a breakthrough for Mediterranean cuisine as achieved by Elizabeth David in @
- School dinners/lunches are still provided in the majority of institutions, along with free orange juice and milk.
- More wine is made in southern England and Lyonesse, but perhaps half of it is grape wine and the rest is various forms of fruit wine.
- Television chefs have made earlier inroads, with Julia Child, Graham Kerr, Fanny Craddock, Delia Smith (five years before @) and James Beard all making inroads. Keith Floyd will be joining their ranks sooner as one of my rare personal taste inserts, as I enjoy him a great deal.
- Martian and Venusian dishes are really out of this world.
- As a general rule, whether in the USA, Britain, Europe or the wider world, that golden moment of regional cuisines/styles combined with modern tech and capacity has extended a little longer.
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Post by simon darkshade on Jan 17, 2024 15:23:34 GMT
Some statistical musing from insomnia:
British Budget 1972 (GDP: £241,554,419,575.568)
Defence: £22,223,006,600.952 (9.2%)
Health: £12,077,720,978.757 (5%)
Education, Science and Technology: £12,077,720,978.757 (5%)
Pensions: £9,058,290,734.084 (3.75%)
Welfare: £8,454,404,685.145(3.5%)
Transport, Power and Energy: £4,831,088,391.511 (2%)
Trade, Industry and Labour: £3,019,430,244.695 (1.25%)
Space: £3,019,430,244.695 (1.25%)
Housing, Works and Local Government: £1,811,658,146.817 (0.75%)
Agriculture, Fisheries and Food: £1,207,772,097.878 (0.5%)
Home Office: £1,207,772,097.878 (0.5%)
Foreign Office: £1,207,772,097.878 (0.5%)
Colonial Office: £905,829,073.408 (0.375%)
Commonwealth Office: £603,886,048.939 (0.25%)
Foreign Aid: £603,886,048.939 (0.25%)
Other: £603,886,048.939 (0.25%)
Total: 34.325% of GDP
@ British Budget 2023/4 (for comparison)
Social Protection: £24,120,603,015.075
Health: £15,389,447,236.181
Education: £8,228,643,216.08
Debt Interest: £7,286,432,160.804
Defence: £4,271,356,783.92
Transport: £3,894,472,361.809
Industry, Ag and Employment: £3,140,703,517.588
Other: £3,015,075,376.884
Public Order: £2,952,261,306.533
Housing and Environment: £2,386,934,673.367
@ British Budget 1960/61 (for comparison)
Defence: 6.76% (£1590 million)
Education: 4.06% (£956 million)
Debt Interest: 3.99% (£935 million)
Welfare: 3.63% (£852 million)
Health: 3.36% (£790 million)
Transport: 3.03% (£712 million)
Pensions: 2.87% (£675 million)
Fuel and Power: 1.81% (£426 million)
Housing: 1.62% (£379 million)
General Government: 1.24% (£291 million)
Agriculture, Fishing and Food: 1.24% (£291 billion)
Protection: 0.82% (£192 million)
Defence: Spending as a percentage of GDP is projected to fall below 9% in 1973 towards the goal of 8.5% by 1975. The shift from active to reserve strength of 4 divisions is going to free up significant funds in subsequent years, which will flow into increased pay and other benefits, as well as further R&D and Procurement of the increasing cost of more complex 1970s equipment.
Health: As forecast in 1969, some reductions in the overall budget/GDP percentage are now imminent, as the National Health Service is already functioning at high efficiency and is past the point of diminishing returns
Education: A large amount of the increases in the budget are being channeled into Science and Technology in the form of grants, investment and R&D, along with more funding flowing onto the universities. This is one area of expenditure that won't be capped or reduced.
Pensions: The total percentage of the population of pensionable age is ~20%, of which three quarters receive the state pension (21,200,000) at a rate of £427.28, or just under 25% of GDP/capita. Use of one of Britain's sovereign wealth funds to augment pensions using money from North Sea oil and gas is still a medium to long term objective.
Welfare: With unemployment running at ~350,000, the annual Unemployment Benefit of £213.64 totals £74.774 million. National Assistance for 3 million invalids (£427.28), 6 million widows (£427.28) and 5 million poor (£427.28) totals £5981.92 million. Family Allowance is paid at £1/child/week for a total of £1820 million, with the remainder of the Welfare/Social Protection being spent on training, miscellaneous benefits and extraordinary grants.
It is worth noting that benefits and pensions can compound on top of each other, with some women gaining a widow's pension and an ordinary pension, with many now elderly men receiving their general military pension as well as their ordinary pension and the Royal Victory Gift (whereby each surviving veteran of the World Wars receives a daily payment of the King's shilling since 1945). Those who have invested in their own private pensions and savings can also enjoy them; the OAP and National Assistance are not means tested.
Transport, Power and Energy: New capital programmes will see some rises in overall spending, but it is planned that this be covered by growth under current projections. Operations of the National Grid take up a small but significant part of the budget, with an ever increasing amount being invested annually in the very ambitious nuclear power station construction programme.
Trade, Industry and Labour: The majority of spending here goes towards investment, specific loans, R&D support and such indirect payments, rather than direct subsidies towards industries.
Space: The Ministry of Space's budget covers running costs for the scientific research and exploration programme, rocket launches, space station operations and that part of the operating costs of the Royal Space Force near Earth. The steady expenditure on the very long term starship research, development and construction project represents one part of the overall budget
Housing, Works and Local Government: This is to be combined under the latest projected 'super ministry' in 1973, combining with the Ministries of Social Security and Pensions. The large scale public house building projects of the 1940s, 50s and 60s, along with earlier slum clearance drives, are now largely complete; a steady rate of 100,000 public/council houses will be maintained over the next decade on current plans to keep the stock of new desirable homes strong. The Department of Works is engaged in planning of an entire new city in the Midlands
Agriculture, Fisheries and Food: Spending here does take the form of more direct subsidies than many other ministries, as well as the purchase of large supplies for national stockpiles and operation of British Restaurants
Home Office and Foreign Office: As well as funding some of the key intelligence services, the former does provide for funding of what would be known in @ as 'public protection'
Colonial Office: Here, like the Commonwealth Office, a lot of funding is channeled into development aid, investment projects, infrastructure construction and mechanisms for social and political development. There will always be a distinct Colonial Office as long as there are colonies, but it is shifting gears downwards gradually
Foreign Aid: As mentioned for 1969, aid is very much a targeted tool of national and Imperial strategic interests, rather than a softer humanitarian touch. In 1972, this chiefly took the form of 100 million to South Vietnam, 100 million to Egypt, 75 million to Thailand, 75 million to Ethiopia, 50 million to Iceland, 50 million to Persia, with other, smaller payments going to other groups and nations
Other: This area includes funding for the Ministry of Information (£75 million), the BBC (£75 million), General Government (£250 million) and the Civil List (£125 million). The last, combined with the Privy Purse of £125 million, Sovereign's Tribute from the non-human subjects of the Crown and annual gifts from Indian and Oriental rulers makes the British monarchy easily the wealthiest individuals in the world
And a bit on comparative Health spending/budgets:
Health
1965: $18,549.86 million (3.5% of $529,996 million)
1966: $19,445.868 million (3.6% of $540,163 million)
1967: $20,986.526 million (3.8% of $552,277 million)
1968: $21,841.45 million (3.8% of $574,775 million)
1969: $21,067.452 million (3.6% of $585,207 million)
1970: $22,223.494 million (3.71% of $599,016 million)
1971: $22,938.9375 million (3.75% of $611,705 million)
1972: $23,875.4854 million (3.77% of $633,302 million)
Health Spending Per Capita
1965: $341.3 (+4.69%
1966: $355.87 (+4.09%)
1967: $381.86 (+6.8%)
1968: $395.58 (+3.47%)
1969: $379.86 (-4.14%)
1970: $399.47 (+ 4.9%)
1971: $410.31 (+ 2.64%)
1972: $425.78 (+ 3.63%)
Dark Earth Health Spending
1965: $143,673,501,542
1966: $155,857,014,473
1967: $168,216,475,221
1968: $178,343,107,559
1969: $190,541,776,116
1970: $197,941,411,117 (19) £10,417,969,006.159
1971: $207,798,893,391 (19) £10,936,783,862.684
1972: $223,437,838,107 (18.5) £12,077,720,978.757
Dark Earth Health Spending Per Capita
1965: $1102.74
1966: $1175.13 (+6.16%)
1967: $1249.33 (+5.94%)
1968: $1307.8 (+4.47%)
1969: $1381.09 (+5.31%)
1970: $1445.05 (+ 4.42%)
1971: $1496.85 (+ 3.46%)
1972: $1592.92 (+ 6.03%)
And some Import Data for DE 1972 (indicating the percentage of British imports from the countries in question) :
Rubber
Malaya: 80%
Ceylon: 20%
Butter
NZ: 40%
Australia: 25%
Denmark: 20%
Western Europe: 10%
Canada: 5%
Cheese
NZ: 65%
Canada: 25%
Australia: 15%
Western Europe: 5%
Meat
NZ: 25%
Australia: 25%
Canada: 16%
Argentina/Uruguay/Brazil: 13%
South Africa/Rhodesia: 8%
Denmark: 7%
USA: 6%
Sugar
West Indies: 62%
Australia: 20%
Mauritius: 8%
South Africa: 10%
Tea
India: 62%
Ceylon: 31%
Japan: 4%
China: 3%
Wheat
Canada: 46%
Australia: 34%
Argentina/Uruguay: 8%
India: 5%
South Africa: 4%
Rhodesia: 3%
Barley
Canada: 42%
Australia: 33%
USA: 11%
South Africa: 6%
Argentina/Uruguay: 5%
Israel: 2%
Egypt: 1%
Rice
India: 88%
Ceylon: 8%
Malaya: 4%
Indochina: 24%
Coffee
West Indies: 52%
East Africa: 32%
Rhodesia: 13%
Central America: 3%
Oils and Fats
India: 20%
Canada: 20%
Australia: 12%
East Africa: 12%
West Indies: 12%
South Africa: 10%
Rhodesia: 8%
West Africa: 6%
Cocoa
West Indies: 40%
West Africa: 60%
Maize
South Africa: 52%
Argentina/Uruguay: 21%
Canada: 17%
Australia: 10%
Oil Nuts
East Africa 36%
South Africa 32%
Rhodesia 24%
Cotton
India: 35%
Egypt: 28%
USA: 18%
Brazil: 8%
Australia 4%
Chile/Peru: 3%
Timber
Canada: 42%
Newfoundland: 27%
Scandinavia: 18%
Austria-Hungary 5%
USA: 4%
Paper
Canada: 39%
Newfoundland: 29%
Scandinavia: 18%
Western/Central Europe: 12%
Eastern Europe: 2%
Flax
Canada: 54%
Australia: 14%
Western/Central Europe: 12%
South Africa: 10%
Eastern Europe: 8%
Iron
Australia: 29%
Canada: 19%
South Africa: 15%
West Africa: 12%
Scandinavia: 12%
North Africa: 8%
Spain: 4%
Western Europe: 1%
Copper
Rhodesia: 26%
Chile: 24%
Canada: 20%
Peru: 18%
Australia: 5%
India: 3%
Aluminium
Canada: 46%
Scandinavia: 16%
Western/Central Europe: 14%
West Indies: 12%
Australia: 12%
Tin
Malaya: 52%
West Africa: 20%
Chile/Peru: 18%
South Africa/Rhodesia: 10%
Zinc
Australia: 42%
Canada: 30%
Newfoundland: 18%
India: 10%
Lead
Australia: 52%
Canada: 30%
India: 10%
South Africa/Rhodesia: 8%
Petroleum
Canada: 29%
West Indies: 15%
Newfoundland: 9%
Nigeria: 7%
Venezuela: 7%
India: 6%
Persia: 5%
Arabia: 5%
Iraq: 5%
Mexico: 4%
Australia: 4%
Kuwait: 2%
Wool
Australia: 52%
New Zealand: 26%
South Africa: 12%
Argentina/Uruguay: 5%
India: 5%
Hemp
India: 54%
East Africa 27%
Canada: 15%
Oats
Canada 100%
Jute
India 100%
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Post by simon darkshade on Jan 18, 2024 13:33:23 GMT
The first bit of a 1973 round up of the world:
Economics: The Western World hasn't seen a recession since the fairly mild one of 1962/63, so that is likely to change in 1973 through economic cycles and the economic aftermath of victory in Vietnam. It should be noted that any recession that does occur will be more similar to 1969/70 in the USA than the @ one of 1973-75. First of all, there isn't going to be an oil shock from the Middle East, nor the weight of multiple deficits from Vietnam + the Great Society, nor a Nixon Shock changing the nature of international financial arrangements. Secondly, the inflation picture is far more mild than the @ early 1970s. What is likely is a stock market crash, followed by a reasonably conventional V shaped recession, with a fairly direct recovery in unemployment numbers. I am tossing up whether to have it similar to the 1953 Recession, in that it might be shaped by monetary policy decisions, but there is the simpler option of the long inflated stock market bubble finally bursting, not due to design, but simple inevitability.
Moving on to the consequences, this won't see an end to the Trente Glorieuses/Record Years/Spanish Miracle/Miracolo economico/Post WWII economic expansion, which here has absolutely included Britain and India along with the rest of 'Western' Europe, North America, Japan and Australasia. There will be brief impacts, but not necessarily deep ones.
Politics: After the 1972 round of elections (the USA, Canada, Britain, Australia and Germany, among others), 1973 sees new governments settle in. The Reagan Administration in America will be a bit different to that of 1980 in some ways. In terms of international relations, the overall climate between the superpowers is fairly measured, reflecting a period of postwar detente and recovery...at least until the next trigger event
USA:
Really poised on the brink of further acceleration which will extend its lead in most meaningful indices of power and success. Not facing a malaise, nor turning inwards after an effective defeat, but still possessed of the self confidence and assurance of ~1955 in @. The 1970s will be an American decade in many different ways.
Britain:
Politically, Labour are well set for this third term, whilst the Conservatives are within striking distance for the next election. For the latter, finding a path to distinct policy difference with the Government is perhaps the most likely path for a return to power, which will involve finding some grounds where that fight can occur. Meanwhile, the Liberals are mustering their own power/votes/machine for a run at their first government since 1948. Stanley Barton is 55 and in robust health and the height of his powers, and during this term will mark 20 years as Party Leader; he has certainly molded and shaped it very differently compared to @ Labour. The 1960s military rearmament plan only has a few years left to run before it reaches its expected goals, which will have wide reaching consequences for the British Armed Forces (and those of the CW), their capabilities and their intended roles. The position of the British Empire as a superpower is an interesting one for a different 2nd stage of the Cold War.
Socially, Britain is a unified and very homogenous country without the basis for any significant social strife, be that from a generation gap, reactions to immigration or issues in Ireland. It has an Empire, but is less imperialist in the general outlook of the people compared to the 1870s. Women's rights are advancing in steady pushes, rather than more visible and loud advances, whilst the 'youth' isn't a particular social group or power base to be courted; as a generalisation, people 'grow up a bit quicker' through responsibilities, circumstances and unavoidable duties. There is a strong feeling that the country is 'on the up' and headed ever higher towards better days, brighter futures and more national strength. Should there be a short, glorious war in the 1970s as there was in 1956, it is likely that there will be another strong resurgence of nationalism and jingoism.
A different 1970s in economic and industrial terms effectively breaks completely from many @ connections and pathways, with flow-on effects upon politics. The traditional heavy industries are going on fairly strong, even as they do face competition from Japan and the USA; the combination of the domestic British, broader Imperial and Martian market does help a lot. No single industry in the 'old' group (coal, steel, rail, arms, shipbuilding, textiles) is going to wither and collapse, even as some may well grow smaller in the number of employed workers over coming decades with the role of technology. In the automotive and aerospace industries, Britain holds its own, against increasing challenges, and in electronics, it has definitely taken advantage of its early start, solid foundations and additional information.
USSR:
They are not stagnating, nor stuck in a Brezhnev era rut. The best parallel is the Khrushchev era Soviets, with a lot of additional cybernetics and certain other reforms, whilst a very, very firm grip is held on power by General Secretary Sergeyev and his chums. A very hard line is pushed on corruption and, in concert with the oil and mineral wealth of Siberia, there is little scope for the Soviet Union not to survive into the 21st century, outside of World War 3.
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Post by simon darkshade on Jan 21, 2024 5:00:09 GMT
France:
France under d'Ambreville is going to be very different from the @ 1970s period. Firstly, the continuation of the economic good times will have a discernable impact upon the national mood, social currents, popular culture, the international role of France and 'grande projects'. French exceptionalism, whilst challenged by les Anglo-Saxons, continues to be strong enough and have a real sense of being the leading place on the continent of Europe. The big ticket items, such as rockets, spaceships, nuclear aircraft carriers, strategic bombers, super trains, oceanic superliners, skyships and more, are all loudly trumpeted and talked up as signs of France being at the top table.
There will be a bit more anti-Americanism on a cultural and intellectual level, whilst in strategic terms remaining within the Western alliance and trying to jockey (unsuccessfully) for a clear second place over Britain. Globally, France will still try to keep a finger in many pies, providing aid to South Vietnam, Cambodia and South Laos in a stubborn effort to maintain ties and influence; throwing her weight around in Lebanon and the general Middle East; and acting in her overarching role in Africa, where the struggle for dominance with Britain continues unabated in French minds.
A certain tide of thought holds that France should champion the 'third way' between communism and capitalism, but this in turn is torn in several directions by the stronger competing currents of the triangle of French internal politics. In one corner are the traditionalists, the aristocracy, the King, the Church, ultranationalists and those who look back fondly on the Ancien Regime; a subsection of them are the Gaullists, who are now drifting a bit after the retirement of their leading light. In another are the liberals, constitutional monarchists, descendants of the Orleanists and the 'sensible centrists' of parliament. From the final comes the radicals, the socialists, progressives and, in the more extreme section, republicans. The last grouping included the more revolutionary and communist elements, but the 1950s and 1960s were not kind to their fortunes, followed by the 1968 Revolution/Coup/Event that Defies Easy Labels which saw the more extreme elements and leadership tried and punished appropriately, with some sent to the guillotine, others to Devil's Island, and still others sent to Devil's Island and then guillotined.
Socially, there seems to be ever increasing affluence, with everyday consumer goods becoming cheaper, cars very widespread and the culture of summer holidays ubiquitous. There has been some immigration from North Africa, but less than the @ amount of 1 million Maghrebis in the 1960s and 70s; perhaps 250,000, plus 150,000 Sephardic Jews from the same area, on top of the early 1950s level of ~180,000 Algerians. The European (variously known as the colons or pieds noirs, including Italian and Spanish migrants and descendants) population of Algeria is now pushing beyond 40%, depending on the census data.
Germany:
In 1960, Germany was thriving economically, but not quite admitted back to the European family of nations in a wholehearted sense; to use a metaphor, they were allowed to come to Christmas dinner, but had to sit in the kitchen, purely due to an unforeseen lack of chairs. In 1973, this state of affairs is history and, for all intents and purposes politically and diplomatically, Germany's relations with the rest of Free Europe are normalised. Berlin's economic, industrial and military strength puts it at the very top of the pecking order, but France muscles to the fore due to their nuclear weapons and the residual remnants of Past Events.
The Wirtschaftswunder is going along strongly and, after the blip of 1973, will continue, with further growth, improvement in already very high standards of living and European-leading development of infrastructure, modern industry and technical education. The Gastarbeiter programme extended to Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Yugoslavia, with extension to Ottoman Turkey precluded by the ongoing tensions of the Byzantine Greek-Ottoman Turkish border and Angora's relative rupture with the West; this has resulted in a much, much smaller Turkish minority of ~50,000 compared to 6700 in 1961 and 605,000 in @ 1973, with various effects such as doner kebab being effectively unheard of. In any event, the general rate of growth of the German population makes it unlikely that any family reunification policies would be adopted with regard to the various Gastarbeiter as in @ 1974, whereas it was required in the late 1950s/early 1960s as there wasn't quite the same post WW2 influx of Germans from Eastern Europe with the continuing existence of Austria-Hungary.
General German armament and defence policy takes up a large share of GDP than @, with flow on effects on culture, but there less of a sense of difference 'on the ground' in DE Germany, as this situation simply seems like a reversion to standard operating procedure. East Germany/East Prussia remains a confusing and secretive state well behind the Iron Curtain/Iron Wall, so there is less of a direct sense of a divided people. There has certainly been some sense of Ostpolitik going on, but focused more on Poland and the search for some degree of rapprochement and modus vivendi there.
German relations with France remain at a relative impasse, stymieing any thoughts of a rapprochement and embrace in that direction. Instead, there has been increasing success over the course of the 1960s of a warming up of ties with Austria-Hungary. Those relations, whilst strong pre Great War, had been rather cooled by the defeat in the same conflict, the subsequent decline and loss of territory, chaos of Communist revolutions and civil wars, then the coups and Nazi-Kronist alliance of the late 1930s and WW2. For a lot of Austro-Hungarians, including Kaiser Otto, getting in too cosy with Germany is seen as Not a Good Idea; this is not entirely a fair or rational appraisal of the circumstances of 1900-1945, but politicians and nations are under no compulsion to be rational. Perhaps a better way of looking at it is an on-again, off-again couple with a propensity for wild living, big arguments, great passion and not really being the best influence on each other; that does conjure up images of Germany and Austria-Hungary as Elizabeth Taylor and Richard Burton in dirndl and lederhosen, which I do hope haunts your dreams, gentle reader. Overall, though, economic, industrial, military and political ties (in that order) have gone from strength to strength in the 1960s.
Germany's component states of Bavaria, Prussia, Saxony, Wurttemberg, Hanover; Baden, Rhineland, Westphalia, Hesse, Mecklenberg, Holstein and Thuringia are respectively kingdoms and grand duchies, with their own regional parliaments and constitutional monarchs. Thuringia is ruled by the former Grand Dukes of Saxe-Weimar-Eisenach, whilst the House of Oldenburg 'got' Westphalia and the German House of Nassau was 'promoted' to rulership of the Grand Duchy of the Rhineland in one of Churchill's creative moments. This has allowed an emphasis on the 'old Germany' of pre 1871 in how it is presented in British media, a rose-coloured era still regarded fondly in the vestigal memories of some in Britain. In turn, there are strong regional distinctions between North, South, West and East German culture, language and society. Fundamentally, the constitution provides less centralised power for the Kaiser and the Chancellor, with each serving as a circuit breaker upon the other in the executive branch, broadly modelled on the British situation, with the Reichstag/legislative and Reichsgericht/judiciary providing for a further separation of powers.
Italy
Very well placed, but perhaps not entirely in a nice way. Like France, longer term rumblings from the Left have lead to a right wing government and a February 1971 crackdown. The general situation for the Far Left in Italy has been less successful since WW2, with Soviet influence that bit further away, the monarchy being maintained and some of the rough work behind the scenes done by, ahem, Christians in Action and the Society Of Entomologists, in the 1950s having a deleterious effect on their overall success and survival. The likes of @ Gladio linked groups dabbled a bit more directly with Ordine Nuovo and other Neo Fascist elements and rather than matters erupting into a Hot Autumn of 1968, they percolated at a more disturbing temperature for a longer time.
It is unlikely that the 1970s will be Years of Lead in the same way as @, or that Italian politics will have the same reputation for instability. Their continued economic growth will soon start to have some interesting effects on their relative power as a nation state, not just in military terms, but in how they see themselves internationally, where they want to go and what vision they have of their 'sphere of influence'. One of the big efforts will be the ongoing development of Southern Italy and Sicily.
One factor that isn't present is the Sicilian Mafia and various other Italian organised crime gangs. During the reign of Mussolini, there were some choices to be made and they chose...poorly...Whilst old Benito didn't quite line the Appian Way with crosses to send a message, his treatment of them was similarly ruthless.
(As an authorial note, Italy is largely ignored in most AH writings and, when it is mentioned, tends to go down a relatively benign path. Italian fascism, as horrific, violent, sinister and fearful as it was in its day, has been consigned in much of popular culture/popular memory to the role of the bumbling jokey side-villain to the Nazis on centre stage. I want to do something different, without diving into the cliches of 'Fascism resurgent in Italy' or its ilk. Rather, the goal is to build a microcosm within the broader world of 'Italy' as a political entity/state being *perceived* with that edge of uneasiness, fear and threat. Rather than the cliched portrayal of the Second World War performance extending over their military capacity, I might seek to evoke something different, harder and more jarring. Neo-Roman, perhaps.
The big kicker is that, despite the 'dark' or threatening image/opinion they may evoke, the Italian government et al won't actually turn out to be 'bad', fascist or possessed of malign intent; everyone will think the worst of them, despite themselves. There is just something about the potential of a 'Scary Italy' that provides for interesting world building material. I've tried to work broadly here without giving away too many details, so keep that in mind)
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 21, 2024 13:34:06 GMT
Interesting interpretation of events in France which seemed very much as a military coup to suppress political unrest? Also I got the distinct impression that not all killed either during or afterwards, let along all those imprisoned had been involved in violent activities against the establishment. It sounded more like the right wing death squads you mentioned in your description of events in Italy in previous decades.
Germany is doing better but as you say Italy could be in form some dark time although its economy may be better than OTL 1970's.
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Post by simon darkshade on Jan 21, 2024 14:26:37 GMT
France wasn't a coup so much as a case of getting wind about a left wing revolutionary attempt (which was talked up a bit bigger than what it actually was and was also poorly organised) and then waiting for the trouble to start before pouncing on it. All of those tried and executed afterwards were either caught red handed or were involved up to their elbows in planning, advocating and attempting violent revolution; some protestors and rioters who died in the May 1968 crackdown were no doubt in the wrong place at the wrong time, but it isn't entirely wise to be rioting at any time.
So it is a case of my description of events in France being successful in evoking shadows and worries that didn't occur; that gives me some hope for the Italians from a writing perspective. As said above, they aren't actually going to be bad, fascist or sinister, but no one is going to believe their protestations of innocence.
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Post by stevep on Jan 21, 2024 20:46:33 GMT
France wasn't a coup so much as a case of getting wind about a left wing revolutionary attempt (which was talked up a bit bigger than what it actually was and was also poorly organised) and then waiting for the trouble to start before pouncing on it. All of those tried and executed afterwards were either caught red handed or were involved up to their elbows in planning, advocating and attempting violent revolution; some protestors and rioters who died in the May 1968 crackdown were no doubt in the wrong place at the wrong time, but it isn't entirely wise to be rioting at any time. So it is a case of my description of events in France being successful in evoking shadows and worries that didn't occur; that gives me some hope for the Italians from a writing perspective. As said above, they aren't actually going to be bad, fascist or sinister, but no one is going to believe their protestations of innocence.
It isn't safe to express views in opposition to right wing extremists either by the sound of it. 
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Post by simon darkshade on Jan 22, 2024 2:01:26 GMT
There aren't any hidden meanings or secret massacres tucked away in the wording of that piece. This isn't in reference to peacefully marching down a street, but burning cars, throwing up barricades, tearing up the cobblestones in Parisian tradition and generally trying to kick off. The French government prior to that point were not right wing extremists either; the result of the 1968 attempted rising was to bring in a government and leader even more inimical to their positions.
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Post by simon darkshade on Jan 29, 2024 13:41:49 GMT
Events coming up in 1973:
- A Middle Eastern Crisis
- The world plunges into recession
- A new/old nation emerges
- An incredible mineral deposit found in South Park, Colorado
- Earthquakes, giant crocodiles, volcanos, dogs and cats living together and mass hysteria
- A shock development regarding sport
- Wine from newer countries come forth and light beer is strangled at birth
- A Stockholm Syndrome
- Royal weddings and 99th birthdays
- The ongoing renaissance of the railway
- Debut of the cheery, happy, uplifting British children’s WW3 series Threads
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Post by stevep on Jan 29, 2024 16:41:11 GMT
Events coming up in 1973: - A Middle Eastern Crisis - The world plunges into recession - A new/old nation emerges - An incredible mineral deposit found in South Park, Colorado - Earthquakes, giant crocodiles, volcanos, dogs and cats living together and mass hysteria - A shock development regarding sport - Wine from newer countries come forth and light beer is strangled at birth - A Stockholm Syndrome - Royal weddings and 99th birthdays - The ongoing renaissance of the railway - Debut of the cheery, happy, uplifting British children’s WW3 series Threads
The 1st two points if linked are going to complicate matters somewhat.
Interested to find out which old nation is going to be revived.
I hope that mineral deposit has nothing to do with a certain crass cartoon series.
Sounds like a rough as well as confusing time for assorted people.
Well it could be the revealing of drug use or some shock result. Peterbrough's amazing run to their 1st FA Cup win.  |
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Post by simon darkshade on Jan 30, 2024 0:51:05 GMT
On recessions and crises: They aren’t linked here.
It is also notable that the 1973/74 recessions were in Q3 and Q4 73 and Q1 74 followed by Q2 and Q3 75. Here, there will be more of a V shape than a double dip.
The ‘new/old’ state hasn’t been around for 143 years…
It has nothing to do with the tone or style of the cartoon.
The sporting news is something to do with a North American sport…
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Post by stevep on Jan 30, 2024 9:57:26 GMT
On recessions and crises: They aren’t linked here. It is also notable that the 1973/74 recessions were in Q3 and Q4 73 and Q1 74 followed by Q2 and Q3 75. Here, there will be more of a V shape than a double dip. The ‘new/old’ state hasn’t been around for 143 years… It has nothing to do with the tone or style of the cartoon. The sporting news is something to do with a North American sport…
Thanks for the clarification. Some nation that disappeared about 1829 is going to re-appear. Nothing immediately coming to mind but presumably I'll curse my memory when you give the details.
Don't know much about US sport but guessing some big upset, presumably in either American football or boxing possibly?
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Post by simon darkshade on Jan 30, 2024 11:14:23 GMT
Think of something to do with the Netherlands and Belgium...
It is something to do with American football, but it is unlikely to make the cousins particularly happy.
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