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Post by simon darkshade on Mar 15, 2022 6:15:15 GMT
Steve, You've given me a lot to catch up with! Much appreciated. 1.) Historically, the Indian Summer of the ocean liner extended into the early-mid 1970s or so, prior to air travel costs lowering enough to break through. Here, that is pushed a bit further out due to the greater size of the oceans and the comfort/room provided by a ship. The American and British superliners were subsidised by their governments for potential wartime trooping use. 2.) Who know who it could be?  3.) Brazil would dispute it, naturally, but Argentina are on the up in many different indices of power. Chile would be quite worried, as well as having their own internal issues, and Prydain would find it downright threatening as the smaller next door neighbour. It also concerns London, initially from an economic perspective. 4.) The pre inflation era in the 1960s was a time when tax rises had not yet achieved the same power of repulsion over the Republican Party, 5.) Absolutely. The type of freak supernatural events known of in Dark Earth exacerbate this vulnerability. 6.) It is very much still a British dominated state. As to any coups, we'll see. 7.) Alas, there is a bit more to play out on that event yet... 8.) Not everything can go well and ongoing tensions in a multi-racial state are not easily resolved. 9.) The occupants are completely mystified, rather than having hired a piper... 10.) The way home will be somewhat faster due to the vagaries of orbital mechanics. 11.) It is large, on the scale of the Soviet Kondensator 2P and Oka, but rather more mobile. It is to be fielded at far lower levels than existing British siege guns, as well as in the Middle East, Africa and the Far East. 12.) More than that, it will spark a host of questions as to the nature of the Bermuda Triangle. 13.) It isn't the same rebellion/civil war as in @, but a bit lower level. Combined with a more interventionist policy by Britain in Africa, there isn't quite the scope for it to blow up as it did. There has been no major famine. Simon
On points: 3) I had forgotten about Prydain being there as well as the Falklands. 7) Not good. 8) Very true. 9) Have to see if this remains an unexplained event. 12) Good point. Some sort of time portal possibly? 13) Excellent news.
Steve 3.) The (primarily geographic) nature of Prydain sticking in the way makes the Falklands pretty much a non-factor in DE due to its sheer range from the nearest Argentine bases, both air and naval. The natural border between Prydain and Argentina is the Colorado River, but I’m thinking of shifting it south to have Argentina incorporate Rio Negro and Neuquén. Even with that advantage, that still puts Argentina 1200 miles away from the Falklands. Consider this map: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_air_forces_in_the_Falklands_War#/media/File%3AFAA_Air_Bases_1982.gifAll of those bases are out. That means that no Argy tactical fighters can reach the Falklands. They can fly bombers down that far, but without escort fighters. If they wanted to have a go, they would be limited to heavy bombers and carrier aircraft, whilst leaving their flank open to airfields in Prydain. That shifts their relative threat, whilst not shifting their general grumpiness about their existence. The bigger issue for Argie nationalists is Prydain, but by virtue of its status as an internationally recognised independent country, their claim is much, much weaker. Even in a world where the League of Nations is weaker than the @ UN, there still hasn’t been an aggressive war of conquest since WW2 for a reason. 7.) There aren’t many Australian vampire stories out there and I thought I might set one up. 8.) There is a bit more to play out in Malaya yet. They are a larger and stronger state, but that brings with it challenges. 9.) I’ll have something on it one day. I’m racking up a list of story hooks from the Timeline and elsewhere. 12.) There is something like that going on, with elements of David Gemmell’s idea from The Last Guardian. It is a bit of a legacy from Atlantis as well as some other elements from…elsewhere... There is an element of ancient aliens/parallel dimensions/strange elven stuff at play. I always liked the parts of Tolkien’s apocrypha where mariners accidentally got on The Straight Road… 13.) It isn’t to say that delayed decolonisation and greater intervention in Africa is an absolute good thing, far from it, but certain cases, the longer and stronger presence can have some positive outcomes. Having been in there as colonial overlords for decades, simply washing their hands and buggering off out of there isn’t the most responsible option. Simon |
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Post by simon darkshade on Mar 15, 2022 8:49:37 GMT
1.) Not really. He was given a mantle, ring and sword, but this is the Dark Earth touch. Additionally, the Coronet is not a new one, but very, very old. 2.) Very nasty historical event. A WW2 destroyer doesn't stand much of a chance against a carrier. 3.) The historical one was particularly good, but the scope of this is larger, extending beyond the Low Countries to encompass operations in France, Scandinavia, Poland, Yugoslavia, Greece, Spain and more. The big picture version. 4.) It is a bit of an old tradition making its way out, very slowly. The notion of a true commoner becoming Prime Minister is a very, very new one and having a Prime Minister without a knighthood is vexsome enough. It isn't really early in his career, as he had been an MP for 22 years, a Minister for 6, Shadow Chancellor and now Leader of the Opposition. 5.) Time slips by quickly, but here, Eisenhower lives to see the anniversary. 6.) Quite. As we see, one shouldn't poke lions. 7.) Absolutely. There are ruins down at the floor of the ocean, so exploring them will be very difficult, but quite interesting. 8.) They are both fictional/DE characters. Jack Shaw was first mentioned in 1968 when he was selected in the Olympic team as well as being a Test cricketer and England footballer. Ratcliffe is a nephew of Sir Charles Ratcliffe, who has popped up a few times. 9.) Yes, it does. Something definitely got their goat. 10.) Astounding that it took so many times to get some change. 11.) Indeed. This is a historical event, but placed on a much more problematic canvas. 12.) It isn't one of the Cities of Gold, but something old and related to the Aztecs... 13.) The whole conception of WW1 is very different from where it was in the 1960s in @
1) Now that is intriguing. Are we talking about say Arthurian or much older, possibly even relating to my favourite fantasy universe? - In which case I wonder about that ring.  2) I didn't think the Aussies still had a carrier then. Learn something new.  4) Sounds good. When can I get a DVD of it. 5) Good for him. 7) Since this is DE I wonder how advanced those ruins are? 9) Not sure whether that's a [terrible] joke or a reference to some demonic activity.
11) Do you mean a greater degree of social division even than OTL? 12) Well that's much further than they got OTL.
Steve 1.) It is built on the Crown of Ambrosius Aurelianus, or so the legends say; there is an indication that there is something older in that crown, a strange metal and a particularly shining jewel. The ring is very old and of strange make, but not that old. 2.) In @, they had Melbourne until 1983. 3.) A DVD of a Dark Earth show? I only have Betamax tapes 5.) Indeed. He has a whole to go. 7.) We’ll see. 9.) Unfortunately, just a bad joke for now. 11.) Yes, rather more, along with external interference. 12.) Here, it is the fabled location of Aztlan, or so they think. Simon |
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Post by simon darkshade on Mar 15, 2022 8:55:12 GMT
1.) It was a rather visual demonstration of the difference between a superpower and a regional power. 2.) Rather. It was the 4th of July, though. 3.) Indeed... 4.) Dreadnought is a military vessel with a secondary mission of exploration. She also set off from Mars as compared to Luna, which changed the scope/range of what she can do. 5.) It wasn't large enough to raise a big issue with Japan, particularly given that Okinawa is still in the grey zone. 6.) He comes from a John Christopher science fiction novel en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World_in_Winter7.) Flying carpets can get a tad antsy. 8.) The $10,000 bills were used as legal tender since 1878. 9.) A difficult conflict to avoid, even if the spark to war is seen as the infamous soccer game. 10.) Being pulled in so many different directions is a big issues, for sure. 11.) Matthew Gore comes from Chocky, but the organisation he is being picked for is something more like The Tomorrow People, albeit with government backing and control. 12.) US pressure was the deciding factor in ending the war. 13.) A sad OTL event. 14.) It does seem like one heck of an achievement. 15.) Substantially larger than cattle weight in @, coming from advanced breeding programmes and various enhancements. The result is a bit more bang for buck, or beef. 16.) The emphasis on heavy industry has several causes. Firstly, there is purely electoral or political angle, with a large part of Labour's heartlands coming from heavy industrial areas in Yorkshire, Tyneside and Scotland and their associated labour unions. Secondly, they are the sinews of more advanced secondary industries. Thirdly, steel production is needed for naval expansion plans, various rearmament schemes and major construction programmes. Fourthly, it is a bit of minor deception, setting achievable goals for traditional industries whilst hiding the more modern industrial goals (aerospace, nuclear power, electronics, robotics, computing, semiconductors and magitech) in obfuscatory prose. Finally, having a continuing capacity for steel production and domestic production of base industrial goods and materials is seen as a vital defence interest. 17.) There was a perception of a more urgent need to secure the succession whilst training up their heir and spares. Mountbatten is influential, but is still focusing on his military career. There is a strong expectation that he will be faithful, given social mores. 18.) It will lead to dramatically different outcomes for many people and conditions in the Western World and then extend out to the treatment of eye conditions in the developing world. 19.) A fair few nuclear weapons states aren't invited to these initial discussions, but their capacity isn't really on the strategic level either in range or yield. Most fall into the orbit of one of the Big Three Western powers one way or another. 20.) It is a fair amount of troops, but they are mostly going across by air to mate up with pre positioned supples/POMCUS sets in Germany (4 divisions), Scandinavia, the Low Countries and France. The equipment for the heavy divisions comes by sea, but the air bridge also carries a fair bit of cargo on the various heavy lifters and skyships. The Soviet conventional threat is countered for now, but is still very large and catching up in capability. 21.) Around 3 times the size of the Cullinan Diamond. It is a huge stone. 22.) It is a worry indeed. 23.) The acceptable baseline to the Americans would be a Western South Vietnam and Cambodia and some sort of partition of Laos to provide flank protection. The problem of Laos is that the north is fairly heavily controlled/within reach of control of the Pathet Lao.
2) That's no excuse. 6) OK thanks. 8) Interesting. 16) OK thanks for expanding on this. 17) Ah so no call for him to play around as OTL. 21) Very big 22) That sounds like things could get worse before they get better.
Steve, 2.) Got to give the cousins something.  6.) A few more such obscure characters will pop up soon. 8.) Historically, they were withdrawn due to lack of use and to combat drug trafficking usage. 16.) There is always method to his ‘madness’. 17.) No, that wouldn’t be a starter to a more staid age. 21.) Very big and priceless. 22.) It is setting up an adventure. Simon |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 15, 2022 12:11:15 GMT
1) Now that is intriguing. Are we talking about say Arthurian or much older, possibly even relating to my favourite fantasy universe? - In which case I wonder about that ring. 2) I didn't think the Aussies still had a carrier then. Learn something new. 4) Sounds good. When can I get a DVD of it. 5) Good for him. 7) Since this is DE I wonder how advanced those ruins are? 9) Not sure whether that's a [terrible] joke or a reference to some demonic activity.
11) Do you mean a greater degree of social division even than OTL? 12) Well that's much further than they got OTL.
Steve 1.) It is built on the Crown of Ambrosius Aurelianus, or so the legends say; there is an indication that there is something older in that crown, a strange metal and a particularly shining jewel. The ring is very old and of strange make, but not that old. 2.) In @, they had Melbourne until 1983. 3.) A DVD of a Dark Earth show? I only have Betamax tapes 5.) Indeed. He has a whole to go. 7.) We’ll see. 9.) Unfortunately, just a bad joke for now. 11.) Yes, rather more, along with external interference. 12.) Here, it is the fabled location of Aztlan, or so they think. Simon
Well that has a few options in Tolkien and elsewhere. Fortunately IIRC Feanor has no surviving descendants and his only grandson rejected the oath.
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Post by simon darkshade on Mar 15, 2022 12:16:48 GMT
It isn't a Silmaril nor the Arkenstone. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 15, 2022 12:26:34 GMT
It isn't a Silmaril nor the Arkenstone.
Damn! Will we find out what it is at some point then?
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Post by simon darkshade on Mar 15, 2022 12:49:58 GMT
I’ll put it on the list of things to incorporate into story planning. I keep on telling myself not to get too far ahead in Timeline development so to not spoil all potential plot lines, as well as trying to be a bit more stringent in finishing things off before starting new projects, but sometimes the muse wills differently.
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Post by simon darkshade on Mar 17, 2022 0:34:55 GMT
1969 Statistics
1969/70 Largest GDPs
1.) USA $10,075,167,641,648 (+ 5.29%)
2.) USSR $4,556,040,963,233 (+ 9.51%)
3.) Germany $3,899,325,693,218 (+ 6.4%)
4.) Britain $3,761,356,980,848 (+ 5.84%)
5.) Japan $3,227,739,108,348 (+ 10.6%)
6.) France $2,090,329,686,504 (+ 7.89%)
7.) India $1,984,430,027,406 (+ 5.67%)
8.) China $1,946,465,883,722 (+ 11.52%)
9.) Canada $1,815,516,857,856 (+ 4.4%)
10.) Italy $1,380,158,179,302 (+ 3.98%)
11.) Austria-Hungary $1,113,486,779,153 (+ 6.93%)
1969/70 Population
1.) China: 974,265,753
2.) India: 681,463,529
3.) Soviet Union: 375,679,150
4.) USA: 329,563,927
5.) Japan: 254,525,989
6.) Indonesia: 240,484,777
7.) Germany: 191,236,985
8.) Brazil: 157,462,090
9.) France: 142,657,273
10.) Mexico: 136,748,086
11.) Britain: 136,129,542
12.) Austria-Hungary: 124,870,835
1969/70 Share of World Industrial Output
1.) USA: 23.9%
2.) Soviet Union: 11.5%
3.) Japan: 11.3%
4.) Germany: 10.2%
5.) China: 8.1%
6.) Britain: 6.2%
7.) India 5.1%
8.) France: 4.2%
9.) Italy: 3.5%
10.) Canada: 3.4%
11.) Austria-Hungary: 3.1%
Steel Production 1969/70 (millions of tons)
1.) USSR 187
2.) USA 192
3.) Japan 144
4.) Germany 103
5.) China: 82
6.) Britain 70
7.) AH: 60
8.) Poland 54
9.) India 58
10.) Canada 45
11.) France: 42
Coal Production 1969 (millions of tons)
1.) USSR: 670
2.) USA: 642
3.) China: 593
4.) Germany: 486
5.) Britain: 432
6.) Poland: 420
7.) India: 387
8.) Austria-Hungary: 334
9.) France: 235
10.) South Africa: 197
11.) Australia: 164
Automobile Production 1969
1.) USA: 11,980,228
2.) Japan: 6,594,754
3.) Germany: 5,782,511
4.) USSR: 4,295,733
5.) Britain: 3,562,652
6.) France: 3,204,747
7.) Italy: 2,856,243
8.) Canada: 2,697,298
9.) China: 2,345,689
10.) Austria-Hungary: 1,912,076
11.) Spain: 1,642,854
Merchant Shipbuilding 1969
1.) Japan: 6,968,225 tons
2.) USA: 5,659,832 tons
3.) Britain: 5,166,473 tons
4.) Germany: 2,597,479 tons
5.) USSR: 2,582,554 tons
6.) Italy: 2,038,737 tons
7.) China: 1,736,110 tons
8.) France: 1,362,852 tons
Aircraft Production 1969
1.) USA: 5862
2.) USSR: 5381
3.) China: 3567
4.) Britain: 3296
5.) Germany: 2117
6.) France: 1750
7.) Japan: 1523
8.) India: 1214
9.) Canada: 874
10.) Italy: 682
11.) Austria-Hungary: 610
Tank Production 1969
1.) USSR: 10,124
2.) USA: 5785
3.) China: 3892
4.) Britain: 3257
5.) Germany: 2786
6.) France: 2043
7.) Italy: 1773
8.) Japan: 1620
9.) Austria-Hungary: 1579
10.) India: 1240
11.) Sweden: 884
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Post by simon darkshade on Mar 17, 2022 5:47:29 GMT
A bit of rough analysis of the above data:
- The USSR isn’t as clear in second place as it was in @ 1969, but is still in a period of strong growth and economic expansion. Oil and gas discoveries and exploitation in Siberia is about to provide a big boost, so their late 60s growth has a fair bit yet to run.
- Germany is going along very well in 3rd place and has the foundation for the 1970s to match the great growth of the 50s and 60s. Very strong performance in the indices of heavy industry and secondary manufacturing to boot, particularly automotive.
- Japan only slowed economic growth slightly in the 1970s and has even firmer ground to build on here.
- Britain is reaping the benefits of North Sea oil and gas and enjoying the residual advantages of empire (such as the Commonwealth trading bloc and a big level of economic influence in South America and is on a different trajectory to the @ Britain of 1969.
- The USA is well out in front and accelerating away. Big advantages in emerging technologies are just coming online and the legacy industries of @ aren’t marking time before decline.
- The Western world in general is facing gradually rising inflation, but not at the rate of @. There will likely be a recession in 1970 coming from some economies overheating, but this is likely to see much reduced growth compared to any sense of decline/shrinkage.
- America has paid for the Vietnam War through a combination of tax, bonds and debt, but not enough of the last to really hurt their economy. The good times of 1950-1965 provided a darn good financial foundation, as it saw the US national debt reduced not just by growth, but by use of quite a few Federal surpluses.
- What doesn’t appear to be on the cards is a 1973 oil shock and subsequent stagflation, which makes a lot of the comparison with the @ economic history of the 1970s less useful as a point of comparison. I intend to put up some price data soon to further develop this.
As a point of comparison, in 1970 in @
1.) USA
2.) USSR
3.) Japan
4.) Germany
5.) France
6.) Britain
7.) Italy
8.) China
9.) Canada
10.) India
11.) Australia
Austria-Hungary would have been 12th, followed closely by Spain. The Benelux Union/UK of the Netherlands would have comfortably outdone both of them and come in at 10th just ahead of India.
Historical 1970 Share of World Industrial Output
1.) USA 28.7%
2.) USSR 18.9%
3.) Japan 8.5%
4.) Germany 7.7%
5.) Britain 3.7.%
6.) France 3.4%
7.) Italy 3.1%
8.) China 3.1%
9.) Canada 2%
10.) Argentina 1.2%
- Japan and Germany are ahead from @ by half a decade to a decade
- China is much, much better off and India even moreso
- Canada is a bit stronger, which will continue to develop
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 18, 2022 3:48:29 GMT
1969 Statistics1969/70 Largest GDPs1.) USA $10,075,167,641,648 (+ 5.29%) I assume this will remain the case for many years to come. |
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Post by simon darkshade on Mar 18, 2022 5:43:21 GMT
Well, given that no nation has passed the USA through 2022 in @, that would be an extremely safe assumption. There are some engines of growth that are yet to start firing.
As a side issue, US defence spending from @ was
1970 $83.41B 8.03%
1969 $84.99B 8.63%
1968 $84.33B 9.27%
1967 $78.40B 9.42%
1966 $66.44B 8.44%
1965 $54.56B 7.59%
That is in USD from those particular years.
Converting to 1990 USD (the baseline GDP figure I’m want to use), we get:
1965: 4.15 = $226.42 billion
1966: 4.03 = $267.75 billion
1967: 3.91 = $306.54 billion
1968: 3.76 = $317.08 billion
1969: 3.56 = $302.56 billion
1970: 3.37 = $281.09 billion
Year Deficit Growth Inflation Unemployment
1965 $1B 6.5% 1.9% 4.0%
1966 $4B 6.6% 3.5% 3.8%
1967 $9B 2.7% 3.0% 3.8%
1968 $25B 4.9% 4.7% 3.4%
1969 -$3B 3.1% 6.2% 3.5%
1970 $3B 0.2% 5.6% 6.1%
1971 $23B 3.3% 3.3% 6.0%
1972 $23B 5.2% 3.4% 5.2%
1973 $15B 5.6% 8.7% 4.9%
In Dark Earth, there isn’t quite the same inflationary change and the USD is “worth” more. The rough (interdimensional) exchange rate was $1 US in 1960 = $7 US 1990; 1:6 by 1965 and 1:4.5 by 1970, which is just upon us as we’re dealing with 1969. As I’ve forecast, there is likely to be a rise in the 1970s.
The US commitment to Vietnam is much larger, with peak troop strength perhaps five times larger than the 536000 of 1968. The historical cost was 168 billion, of which 111 billion was on military operations and 28.5 billion on aid to South Vietnam. Even with the much larger level of commitment, the DE US defence budget is sufficient to handle it, even at 600% of @, coming out to an average of $200 billion a year.
The @ defence spending on Vietnam was not the sole or even major cause of inflation. Here, US unemployment is lower at 2.6% compared to 3.5%, growth is rather spiffing and inflation is not climbing markedly, but rather steadily. There hasn’t been the same increase in government spending and programmes that came from Johnson’s Great Society, but one more measured over the decade as the New Frontier has been expanded steadily; a little bit less immediate butter in the old guns vs butter equation.
There are some interesting consequences to this.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 18, 2022 20:21:56 GMT
1969 StatisticsAutomobile Production 1969 1.) USA: 11,980,228 2.) Japan: 6,594,754 3.) Germany: 5,782,511 4.) USSR: 4,295,733 5.) Britain: 3,562,652 6.) France: 3,204,747 7.) Italy: 2,856,243 8.) Canada: 2,697,298 9.) China: 2,345,689 10.) Austria-Hungary: 1,912,076 11.) Spain: 1,642,854 You would assume the French where above the British in Automobile Production. |
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Post by simon darkshade on Mar 18, 2022 23:40:35 GMT
Why would you assume that?
I would certainly hope that it is based on more than "They were ahead in 1970 in @" or, even more distant "They build more cars in 2022". We've run through this before in the strange statement on China leading the world in tank ownership
It certainly can't be based on a perceived historical French advantage in GDP, which did not come until 1971 and which simply would not apply here due to the completely different historical basis and particularly the mapped postwar economic development of Dark Earth. Indeed, the first item in the statistical digest of every year is the GDPs of each nation.
Is there something that is unclear? This is as confusing to me as a writer as the first question you asked after a chapter of A New Jerusalem on whether there was a belief that the Colonial Office should be merged with another government ministry when the entire substance of the piece was the direct opposite of that. If there is something more I can do so that matters could be even more clear cut, I'm all ears.
When I only have two people who comment on my writing out of the whole membership, and indeed those two people make up perhaps half of the regular comments over all the sites I post my material on, I tend to want to encourage and support those comments with answers. It is somewhat confusing when it just comes down to one liners that have no apparent connection with the world or its development.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 19, 2022 7:17:38 GMT
Why would you assume that? I would certainly hope that it is based on more than "They were ahead in 1970 in @" or, even more distant "They build more cars in 2022". We've run through this before in the strange statement on China leading the world in tank ownership It certainly can't be based on a perceived historical French advantage in GDP, which did not come until 1971 and which simply would not apply here due to the completely different historical basis and particularly the mapped postwar economic development of Dark Earth. Indeed, the first item in the statistical digest of every year is the GDPs of each nation. Is there something that is unclear? This is as confusing to me as a writer as the first question you asked after a chapter of A New Jerusalem on whether there was a belief that the Colonial Office should be merged with another government ministry when the entire substance of the piece was the direct opposite of that. If there is something more I can do so that matters could be even more clear cut, I'm all ears. When I only have two people who comment on my writing out of the whole membership, and indeed those two people make up perhaps half of the regular comments over all the sites I post my material on, I tend to want to encourage and support those comments with answers. It is somewhat confusing when it just comes down to one liners that have no apparent connection with the world or its development. Because I toughed the French have more car manufacturers that the United Kingdom. |
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Post by simon darkshade on Mar 19, 2022 9:04:09 GMT
Righto. The *number* of different manufacturers or marques is not necessarily an indicator of greater production, not at any point nor in any country. The major French marques/manufacturers as of 1969 in @ were Renault, Citroen, Peugeot, Simca and Matra, although one could not really term Matra as significant, so call it 4. There may have been a couple of other minor companies, but nothing significant. In Dark Earth, they are actually better off, with Panhard sticking around. In Britain, there are six big groups. BMC (Morris, Leyland, Thorneycroft, Riley, MG) Austin (Austin, Vauxhall, Bedford, Bristol, Ashton-Evans, Healey) Rootes (Standard, Triumph, AEC, Hillman, Humber, Sunbeam, Singer, Talbot) Saxon (Saxon, Rover, Jaguar, Alvis, Albion, Scammell, Jensen) Ford of Britain Rolls Royce In addition, there are numerous smaller manufacturers such as Daimler, Wolseley (bought back by Vickers), Armstrong-Siddeley, Bentley, Aston-Martin and Lanchester. A large number of the above companies were operating in 1969 in @. Even in historical terms, you are absolutely wrong. In terms of Dark Earth, extremely far off the marque. |
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