stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 4, 2019 13:52:08 GMT
Replying on some of the points. 3.)An incident occurred at the chocolate factory, resulting in a fine for having an unregistered flying glass elevator in public airspace. -
4.)Matters regarding smoking will proceed much faster. - 6.) The Moors Murderers and others will not be around for future release or reoffending. -
7.) It is the latest of a few seismic events in the Atlantic that gives some hints as to the deep past. - Now that could be interesting and possibly very important.
9.) There is a growing computing race and it will gather pace and significance.
10.) The Indians have some form of wands that seem to produce a form of energy, according to the garbled accounts of survivors... - interesting. Now is it 'native' in which case why hasn't it been seen before - or possibly it has? - or an outside group giving them an hand?
16.) Soviet superheroes are very much under the control of the Communist Party. In most cases... - A very important point
17.) One should not tempt fate in a universe where it can bite one on the backside pretty savagely. - 21.) It is a Turkish bomb, changing the strategic situation in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean substantially. - Well that could start a new arms race in the region. Can't remember if Greece/Byzantium has the bomb yet but if not they will want it. Also the Arabs now getting their act together and Iran. The Soviets won't be happy with such a development on their southern border.
22.) This is one of the real big developments in my view. It is occurring in a circumstance without outward pressure from a Nasserite UAR, is backed by the US, Britain and France and is coming right at a time when oil monies will start to flow in. It ticks boxes for every major player in the region apart from the Soviets; however, they do like the idea of a unified Arab state that might be bent to their purposes eventually, so their agents are acting in support. Taken forward, it puts a major power bloc in a very important area and causes substantial friction with Ottoman Turkey and Qajar Persia, which also have pretensions of regional hegemony. - Sounds like its going to be stable and lasting. Which interacts with point 21 above.
24.) This is one aspect of Point 4 that is starting to move quickly. -
25.) The race for the asteroid belt is on for all comers. There have been expeditions there before, but these are using new, nuclear engines in the first stage of the real Space Race for the outer giants and beyond. The asteroid belt itself represents riches beyond the wildest dreams of the superpowers, but they are a long way away and eye-wateringly expensive, not to mention being the haunt of the Space Nazis. - Which could be why the Dreadnought is a predominantly military vehicle. - Reading the last bit I had slightly misread things but still basically an interesting operation. The RN continues its anti-piracy operations even in deep space.
26.)I hadn't intended it to be the beginning of something strange, but there is potential there... - Well a number of comic characters seem to have gained powers from nuclear accidents but the one it most made me think of was Dr Manhattan from the Watchmen film - not seen the comics.
29.) You might be surprised as to what happens in this version of the Virgin Lands Campaign. There are some extremely proficient and realistic men running it, along with some other factors that will play out. Will it result in Khrushchev's dream from @? Probably not, but there are different measures for success out there. - So it and the USSR could be more successful than OTL.
30.) You are quite right to be suspicious. - Now is it an internal power struggle in the Soviet system, an assassination from another power or possibly most worryingly that some of the military robots decided they didn't like him.
31.) This is another potential major game changer in at least 4 different ways, but I'd like to see what others think or can infer before I outline what I think; it may well change some of my future events if others can put in an interesting analysis/argument. - Well it is a Labour government but markedly more 'conservative' in many issues than OTL and also constrained by relying on the Liberals. However you could see some external groups thinking it means a British government less willing to defend all its interests and trying to challenge it somewhere. Also your likely to see an increase in social spending including broader education possibilities as one option. Possibly Labour also has some version of Wilson's "white heat of technology" so there might be ideas for some high tech experiments. If you do get more money reaching the younger echelons of the population you could also see the development of some version of the teenage culture of OTL. Politically it might depends on who replaces Eden as Tory leader and what sort of policies they follow. The Liberals might try and push for a change to the electoral system. Also how will Barton and Kennedy get on? OTL Kennedy and Macmillan seemed to have quite a good relationship but here Kennedy is the more experienced as leader of his country so it could be interesting. Anyway a few possible ideas on how things might change.
33.) The window is the same one that Voyager was designed to exploit, but there are bigger and better ships that will be used. - However it sounds like the flights will take place about 15 years earlier when the alignment of the outer planets will be less favourable. However having advanced nuclear propulsion and not having to start from Earth's gravity well will help greatly.
34.) It will be an extremely helpful development, along with other health news. -
35.) There is a definite attempt at reform going on in the USSR, steered by Stalin (ie, by whoever is behind him) and several other younger generation figures. - Have to see how it develops then.
36.) The full details of the British ship have actually been referred to in another tale - Space, the New Frontier. The ship is the Dreadnought (built since 1955 on Deimos), which had been thought of as a military vessel for use in the Inner Solar System, not a dual-purpose vessel to push for the Outer. It has a joint mission of trying to go after the Space Nazis. Once the consequences of this become clear in Moscow and Washington, it would be interesting to be a fly on the wall. - Looking forward to you releasing the transcripts.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 4, 2019 14:03:34 GMT
Replying on some of the points. 3.)An incident occurred at the chocolate factory, resulting in a fine for having an unregistered flying glass elevator in public airspace. - Wonder what category you would need to register a flying glass elevator.
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Post by simon darkshade on Oct 4, 2019 14:37:22 GMT
10.) The Indian weapons are not of their manufacture, but are from a long time ago. There is something to do with Percy Fawcett's disappearance and survival at play here.
21.) The Greeks do have a very few gravity bombs, but are up against it compared to the Turks, who have a larger population base, larger economy and certain other advantages.
22.) It has the potential to be long lasting and possibly to be stable. It will depend on what happens elsewhere in the world.
25.) This will be a Space Race with both danger and reward. The suppression of the Space Nazis is a benefit to all, but particularly to Britain, which needs to have everything go its way to compete with the Big Two.
26.) I hadn't intended it, but it seems like a good opportunity to examine some of those developments.
29.) I'm laying down a few hints and details that the Soviet Union won't be hitting the same stagnation of the Brezhnev years, which brings with it opportunity and danger.
30.) It was the work of another power, acting on information from some other parties on the negativity of pepper-pot robots. Who might that be?
33.) Sorry, I should be clearer. There are plans being proposed to send out an Orion expedition on a Grand Tour in the very late 70s.
36.) I'd have to clean up some of the language.
31.) On the new Labour Government It is a Labour government, with Liberal backing. There won't be external groups thinking that this may not defend its interests, given the general hardline policies and statements made by Stanley Barton since 1956.
There will be increased investment in education and technology in preference to welfare and social security, causing tension within the Barton government; he has some very different ideas for social funding. I haven't thought of increased educational spending leading to some youth culture developments, but it is an interesting one.
Barton and Kennedy will be closer politically than Kennedy and Eden, but the personal bond won't be there, at least at the beginning. The new British Prime Minister isn't the most personable or warm fellow, but has strong respect across the board.
In foreign policy, Labour will try to balance the shift to Europe with the global role, particularly in the Middle East. Empire Socialism will drive some rather interesting developments.
At home, the most expansive ambition is to pay off the National Debt and subsequently build up funds to pay for social programmes. Defence spending will be the main issue stopping this, creating a circumstance whereby the PM wants to expand defence and the Treasury wants to contract it.
As for the new Conservative leader, the leading contenders are Reginald Maudling, Enoch Powell, Iain McLeod, Lord Wooster and John Profumo.
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Post by simon darkshade on Oct 4, 2019 14:38:40 GMT
Replying on some of the points. 3.)An incident occurred at the chocolate factory, resulting in a fine for having an unregistered flying glass elevator in public airspace. - Wonder what category you would need to register a flying glass elevator. Small sized personal flying machines, arcane-powered.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 5, 2019 12:37:55 GMT
10.) The Indian weapons are not of their manufacture, but are from a long time ago. There is something to do with Percy Fawcett's disappearance and survival at play here. - OK that could be interesting. 22.) It has the potential to be long lasting and possibly to be stable. It will depend on what happens elsewhere in the world. - Ditto as that's going to a potential big impact. Wonder what its relations with be with a nuclear Turkey and also with Israel and hence Britain. 25.) This will be a Space Race with both danger and reward. The suppression of the Space Nazis is a benefit to all, but particularly to Britain, which needs to have everything go its way to compete with the Big Two. - True although with the empire/commonwealth behind it there's a lot of potential there. 29.) I'm laying down a few hints and details that the Soviet Union won't be hitting the same stagnation of the Brezhnev years, which brings with it opportunity and danger. - Very true, plus that might affect its relations with imperial China. I wonder if anyone from the west will try and do a Nixon seeking to bring China over to the western side, or at least less favourable to the Soviets. 30.) It was the work of another power, acting on information from some other parties on the negativity of pepper-pot robots. Who might that be? - I don't have the slightest idea. Had forgotten the nature of the Soviet research so very glad someone's trying to stop it. 33.) Sorry, I should be clearer. There are plans being proposed to send out an Orion expedition on a Grand Tour in the very late 70s. - OK thanks for clarifying. That's planning a hell of a way ahead given the ships are being built now but then it might be their successors that make the trip. 36.) I'd have to clean up some of the language. - Not really, I was just misreading one of the entries and forgetting as I got to another. 31.) On the new Labour GovernmentIt is a Labour government, with Liberal backing. There won't be external groups thinking that this may not defend its interests, given the general hardline policies and statements made by Stanley Barton since 1956. There will be increased investment in education and technology in preference to welfare and social security, causing tension within the Barton government; he has some very different ideas for social funding. I haven't thought of increased educational spending leading to some youth culture developments, but it is an interesting one. - No what I meant was if younger people and especially teenagers get a better economic position, so they have money of their own that gives the basis for a more independent youth culture. This was starting to occur OTL by the late 50's although the ending of conscription probably played a part since it meant more such teens were getting better paid jobs and not under military control but that would be an issue here if as I expect conscription continues. Barton and Kennedy will be closer politically than Kennedy and Eden, but the personal bond won't be there, at least at the beginning. The new British Prime Minister isn't the most personable or warm fellow, but has strong respect across the board. - Well that could be interesting. In foreign policy, Labour will try to balance the shift to Europe with the global role, particularly in the Middle East. Empire Socialism will drive some rather interesting developments. At home, the most expansive ambition is to pay off the National Debt and subsequently build up funds to pay for social programmes. Defence spending will be the main issue stopping this, creating a circumstance whereby the PM wants to expand defence and the Treasury wants to contract it. - Well that would be a big task given the additional wars that Britain has been involved in and the much larger military being maintained, albeit with a larger population and resource base. The Treasury will always be the enemy for the spending departments. As for the new Conservative leader, the leading contenders are Reginald Maudling, Enoch Powell, Iain McLeod, Lord Wooster and John Profumo. - Well there's some interesting options there. After the mess he got into with his personal life Profumo seemed to have been a decent and hard working character so if he's able to keep his trousers zipped up he might be a good possibility. Powell would have to be a radically different character from OTL else he would be a real disaster.
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Post by simon darkshade on Oct 6, 2019 1:55:15 GMT
There will be more twists and turns in the secrets of South America.
At present, the Arab Union has cordial relations with Britain, increasingly strained relations with Israel (although there hasn't been the open outbreak of war to completely rupture them yet) and cool relations with Turkey. The Ottoman dalliance with the Germans and subsequent fighting on the Middle Eastern Front in 1940-1942 caused a fair bit of bad blood with the British that hasn't settled yet. The Arab Union would love to take an independent foreign policy and remove foreign influence from the whole region, but its leadership and intellectual core doesn't have the (at times self-delusional) ardour of the pan-Arabists from @ 1960s. It is a delicate balance between ruling and being overthrown - even though the various leaders know that the British would respond to revolution, it is cold comfort if they end up dead in the street before the cavalry arrive.
Contributions from the Empire and Commonwealth are valuable, but space exploration out beyond the inner planets is a serious expense whioh will see the likes of the USA putting 5-6% of GDP in and still needing more.
China is an interesting case. It is already distinct from the Soviets and doesn't quite offer the same threat of a Maoist state, but on the other hand is several times richer, more industrialised and more powerful than China in @. It takes a distinctly nationalist line, verging on ultranationalism and borderline fascism in some cases. It won't need a Nixonian approach, but China will be more difficult to court, to put it mildly.
The indications are that the Soviets are up to something, as per usual.
The Grand Tour would be made by enlarged Orions that can carry more personnel and cargo. Planning ahead and thinking big have paid off in space.
Young men in Britain already have decent wages - after they finish their term of National Service at 20/21. The idea of the 'teenager' as a separate entity hasn't really made the jump across the Atlantic. The 16 and 17 year olds with jobs and money from apprenticeships, factory work et al are a growing market, but not one that has really emerged in its own right; school leaving ages are somewhat higher than this time in @. With a culture strongly built on conformism and towing the line, rebellion would be fraught with difficulty.
Barton is more suited to politics on the British side of the Atlantic, which focusses on delivery of service and getting the job done, rather than the 'celebrity worship' that Presidents attract in America. Some aspects of his personality could be compared to Gordon Brown, but only in general terms. He would rather be respected than loved and feared if he can't be respected.
It would be a very big task and already looks difficult with some of the early 1960s surpluses growing smaller. However, it is within theoretical reach and would be quite a feather in the cap; details of the British national debt as of 1960 are in the Imperial Almanac thread. Another very significant difference is the relative power of the Treasury - it isn't quite the most important department that it was in @ and in an atmosphere of wars, near-misses and global confrontation, Defence has a substantially greater cachet.
The macroeconomic elephants in the room that confronted Britain in the latter half of the 1960s in @ with devaluation and stagflation - relative decline/distinctly slower growth than Europe in GDP, industrial production and exports, the balance of payments problem, productivity decline, an undereducated workforce, under-investment and low R&D,too powerful unions, financial fragility - are not present in the same extent or combination.
Maudling, Profumo and Powell are the three frontrunners at this point. Wooster would make for a comic leader, but whilst there are quite humourous notes to aspects of it, Dark Earth isn't a complete comedy.
One of the most significant aspects of a Barton premiership will be his personal social conservatism. The proponents for a permissive society are in the Liberal Party and thus don't have the positions to influence social policy to the same extent. Barton's base, as it were, is in the solidly traditional unions, working class, military and Puritan religious groups, notably in Wales and Scotland. There won't be the same moves for the abolition of corporal and capital punishment, full decriminalisation of homosexuality, liberalisation of divorce, abortion and censorship, introduction of suspended sentences, and lowering of the voting age from 21 to 18, to name but a few.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 6, 2019 10:23:05 GMT
There will be more twists and turns in the secrets of South America.
Looking forward to seeing what develops.
One difference is that without the same need to play politics with local rivals, although Egypt is still there, there may be less need to play to the mob in terms of public hostility towards Israel. Also what has happened with the Palestinians in TTL? Have the assorted Arab powers refused to accept them as brothers and instead kept them as refuges denying them citizenship status as OTL. If they have accepted them then in another generation or two they will have probably largely assimilated and the problems will have disappeared. Assuming here that the current Israeli borders are as OTL which means Jerusalem is split which might ease that issue. Also with Turkey having been an hostile power only two decades before they may well be more concerned about that threat. Plus without the same level of venom in relations Israel may not later slip under the control of the hard line religious faction which will mean their relations with their own Arab minority will stay good.
Plenty of reasons why things will hopefully end up better than OTL. However there is still a fundamental tension that could cause the Arabs to move drastically out of the British camp, whether to the Soviet or possibly the American. Which with the oil issue due to become steadily more important and the virtual certainty that Egypt will continue to be restless about the situation with the canal will need very careful handling by London.
I forget but does British still have protectorates over Kuwait and what was still the Trucial states in TTL?
Contributions from the Empire and Commonwealth are valuable, but space exploration out beyond the inner planets is a serious expense whioh will see the likes of the USA putting 5-6% of GDP in and still needing more.
Very true but many will probably see it as something Britain must commit to if its to stay a major power.
Unfortunately that is very much business as usual for China through its history.
Again business as usual.
The big differences is they will be manned flights and will be coming back. Although they could well send Voyager size [or larger] probes beyond Saturn which are one way.
I'm not sure from the world you describe that the concept of a teenager has yet really materialised in the US yet. A strongly conformist culture gives more difficulty but also gives those seeking to assert their own identity something to react again. It may depend on how long conscription stays acceptable to the young. Its one thing when the country is largely at peace but as the US found with Vietnam relying very heavily on the current class of conscripts in current wars it puts too much of a burden on one section of the population. Which is doubly so if their not accepted as full citizens.
Sounds very suitable for the times and circumstances. Much prefer the profession and competent to the showman myself.
Very true and as you say socially and economically Britain is in a significantly stronger position compared to OTL UK. Although the level of conformity here could retard economic and technological development.
Agree.
Which in most cases to me would be a pity as it would reduce a lot of suffering and problems. Anyway see how things develop.
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Post by simon darkshade on Oct 6, 2019 12:03:12 GMT
Wonderful and thoughtful response. I'll address it in a bit.
Meanwhile:
1964 Notes and Musings
- RAF Germany will cap out at the current numbers, with the Hunters to be replaced by de Havilland Tornadoes; the general plan is for all RAF Hunters to be retired by 1967. - The Yemen troubles reflect the long term problems brewing in the area, but without the Nasserite intervention. - Typhon will lead to some different USN ship designs. - Kennedy's general priorities are taken up with the Cold War, Vietnam, the Space Race, Medicare and the New Frontier; quite a lot of Johnson's Great Society will not occur in the same manner. - Movement on the health effects of smoking is happening sooner. - The 4.5"/115mm automatic mortar is quite the formidable weapons system. - The West Indies Federation still has a fair few internal issues, but has a firmer basis for success. - Rhodesia is starting to face more spillover from the Congo as well as its own nascent Bush War. - The renewed British Commonwealth Air Training Plan is intended to reduce the duplication of training establishments, spread out costs and create a common pool of reserve manpower, thus ticking a few military and political boxes. - The US Joint Chiefs have a quite aggressive approach to the Vietnam situation, coming both from @ and the consequence of a clear Korean victory. - Israel is quite open about its nuclear weapons here. - The Moors Murderers go to the gallows, along with a few others who missed out narrowly in the 1960s. Public opinion is still very much in favour of hanging; in Parliament, there is some growing support for abolition compared to a generation ago, but it is still concentrated in the Liberals and the wings of Labour and the Conservatives. Given the position of Labour leader/PM Stanley Barton, it is unlikely to see any change soon. - Similarly, capital punishment continues in several European states for longer, including Germany. - Voyager is not sunk outright by Melbourne, but is a write off. - The M64 is a highly modified version of the M60 with some specialised features. - Japanese rearmament takes some interesting turns; details of their bombers will come in time. - Strange things are afoot in the Amazon... - The MiG-25 here is closer to Western perceptions of it. - Preservation of the Royal Arch is one sign of a less gung-ho approach to demolitions. - Venus di Milo is no longer mostly armless. - The Paris Summit may be more talking than substance, but Churchill has continued to be a proponent of jaw-jaw over war-war. - A new Arabian Sultan will provide some different and more vigorous leadership for his own kingdom and the broader Arab Union, but not without opposition. - Both the RN and USN are getting back into the ASW carrier game. - Plato provides some level of ballistic missile defence for field army operations. - Australia has a further four atomic power stations planned, both for power and for their weapons programme. - Amchitka testing looks to go ahead; there may be some opposed groups, but not quite as coordinated. - NERVA is one element in expanded NASA plans for the future. - The HS.681 will replace the Britannia in RAF service and is somewhat larger to reflect its role. - Something strange is going on in Haiti. - The Maunsell Forts begin a new stage in their career. - Ottoman Turkey goes nuclear. - Arab Union is one of the three major developments of the year in my view. - Singapore will be given a number of options, including a Malta-esque one. - Abrams gets the nod in Vietnam; Westmoreland will likely get SACEUR, where he might be more suited for the role. - The African Liberation Front is a different type of African nationalist group, with some outside encouragement. - Mexico's Great Awakening seems vague so far, but will be one clearer. - The VC-10 is a different aircraft. - A later Battle of Algiers results in a French victory on the 'battlefront', but the gloves cannot come off fully without a considerable cost on the Home Front. Thus, the FLN clings on and keeps their campaign going at low intensity. - Kennedy and Goldwater debate, but they are overshadowed by Vietnam; Goldwater is viewed as the narrow winner. - The Gulf of Tonkin is a bit more clearcut. This, and the broader Vietnam War, are the second of the two largest developments of 1964 for me. The call-up of reserves and a broader mobilisation is a different path I'd like to explore. - Elvis continues to develop as an adventurer. - Spaniards begin to protest against the Inquisition, representing not just changing social mores, but also a more liberal society without Francoism. - Fusion developments heat up... - China is trying to play both sides over Vietnam as part of its broader political design. - Use of 'NATO' actually comes from the results of Sam Johnson's visit in 1961. - A later start to a Virgin Lands style campaign may have results both similar and different. - The Labour victory will result in a lot of change, but not in the ways some might expect. - JFK beats Goldwater, not as overwhelmingly pronounced as LBJ, but in the background of the Vietnam kickoff, which creates something of a 'rally around the flag' effect. - The Politburo reshuffle will be meaningful in time. - Dragon Rouge is a bit more extensive and bloody. - Plans for the Grand Tour are quite long term. - The buzzing of the Papal Flight will lead to a Vatican Air Force of sorts. - Soviet reforms seem to be gathering pace. - The B-70 is quite a vexsome development for the Soviets. - Treatments for dementia and cancer will be quite significant as time goes by. - The USN AFD will result in something like the Tomcat. - Guevara indicates that Vietnam will be one front in a wider war. - Britain launches the Dreadnought for the asteroid belt, using what was viewed as a completely militarily purposed vessel - and a white elephant to boot - for combined purposes.
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Post by simon darkshade on Oct 6, 2019 13:02:46 GMT
There will be more twists and turns in the secrets of South America.
Looking forward to seeing what develops.
One difference is that without the same need to play politics with local rivals, although Egypt is still there, there may be less need to play to the mob in terms of public hostility towards Israel. Also what has happened with the Palestinians in TTL? Have the assorted Arab powers refused to accept them as brothers and instead kept them as refuges denying them citizenship status as OTL. If they have accepted them then in another generation or two they will have probably largely assimilated and the problems will have disappeared. Assuming here that the current Israeli borders are as OTL which means Jerusalem is split which might ease that issue. Also with Turkey having been an hostile power only two decades before they may well be more concerned about that threat. Plus without the same level of venom in relations Israel may not later slip under the control of the hard line religious faction which will mean their relations with their own Arab minority will stay good.
Plenty of reasons why things will hopefully end up better than OTL. However there is still a fundamental tension that could cause the Arabs to move drastically out of the British camp, whether to the Soviet or possibly the American. Which with the oil issue due to become steadily more important and the virtual certainty that Egypt will continue to be restless about the situation with the canal will need very careful handling by London.
I forget but does British still have protectorates over Kuwait and what was still the Trucial states in TTL?
Contributions from the Empire and Commonwealth are valuable, but space exploration out beyond the inner planets is a serious expense whioh will see the likes of the USA putting 5-6% of GDP in and still needing more.
Very true but many will probably see it as something Britain must commit to if its to stay a major power.
Unfortunately that is very much business as usual for China through its history.
Again business as usual.
The big differences is they will be manned flights and will be coming back. Although they could well send Voyager size [or larger] probes beyond Saturn which are one way.
I'm not sure from the world you describe that the concept of a teenager has yet really materialised in the US yet. A strongly conformist culture gives more difficulty but also gives those seeking to assert their own identity something to react again. It may depend on how long conscription stays acceptable to the young. Its one thing when the country is largely at peace but as the US found with Vietnam relying very heavily on the current class of conscripts in current wars it puts too much of a burden on one section of the population. Which is doubly so if their not accepted as full citizens.
Sounds very suitable for the times and circumstances. Much prefer the profession and competent to the showman myself.
Very true and as you say socially and economically Britain is in a significantly stronger position compared to OTL UK. Although the level of conformity here could retard economic and technological development.
Agree.
Which in most cases to me would be a pity as it would reduce a lot of suffering and problems. Anyway see how things develop.
South America and Indians with Ray Guns- The Matter of South America will come out moreso in some short stories and extended tales than the timeline, but I'll throw a few bits and pieces in. Arabian Affairs- The mob/Arab street is somewhat less overtly anti-Semite and anti-Israel in its tendencies without the catalyst of Arab-Israeli Wars and a Palestinian issue. However, the Hashemite rulers of the Arab Union must still throw them appropriate bones to keep them mollified. Regarding the Arab populace of Israel and British Palestine before it, they have mostly remained in place, although some did move out to Egypt and Transjordan during the 1920s and 1930s with the major waves of Jewish and other migration; full details of the development of Israel are in the 1947 short story Shaping the Middle East. Those who migrated have been assimilated and there isn't a diaspora in the same way as we would view it from @. Jerusalem and the holy places are dual-hatted as both de facto Israeli and also under special protection, including an impartial Sikh security force. Israel stretches from the Jordan to the Mediterranean and includes the Sinai, which is the cause of tension with Egypt. As you say, there are fundamental pressures underlying Anglo-Arab relations, but there are also plenty of reasons for a hopeful view of the region. The Arab monarchs and the governments have partly come to terms with the facts on the ground that the British would come down with both feet on any overt breakaway; the 1956 War did cause a great deal of bad blood and negative feeling, but was also a demonstration of ruthlessness and power. Kuwait is a colony (albeit one that is not really viewed as tenable in the region) and the Trucial States are firmly tied up as protectorates. Space!That is exactly where British spending in particular will be heading towards by the end of the decade, right at the same time as funding wars overseas and ambitious programmes at home. ChinaChina has definitely awaken from its 150 years of downtime and isn't particularly happy about the way that matters have developed, with darn good reason. Soviet SchemesThere are some very intelligent and ruthless men behind some of the Soviet Union's most secret programmes and they will stop at nothing to have a completely secure state that isn't vulnerable to 1941 redux. Terrible TeensThe 'teenager' (still mostly appearing in quotes in US media) emerged slightly later than in @, first coming to notice in the late 1940s with fears of juvenile deliquency. This then ran into the issues of Korean mobilisation andd the Red Scare and a subsequent shift towards cultural conservatism. Conformity is still considered a social virtue of sorts, with the groups at the margins suffering from the 50s backlash as a consequence. The USA is an incredibly affluent society, which does give its young people a greater degree of disposable income, creating something of a more overt youth culture; it does work within the bounds of a generally more conformist culture. There is a large population of young people, but as a generation, there isn't the issue of Civil Rights to perk up their political involvement nor the same scope for rebellion in a nation with universal military service and an ongoing Red threat. Vietnam has the potential to perk something up, depending on how it goes. The general US policy with conscripts is to cycle them through training divisions and then use them in reserve units or as support troops. This worked mostly effectively in Korea, allowing a strong reserve whilst rotating volunteers, draftees and professionals through the combat theatre in equal proportions, increasing a sense of fairness. It is also largely what Britain and France have done during the 1950s and early 1960s, fighting their colonial wars with selected forces and minimising the political cost of hundreds of dead National Servicemen. All three of these policies, or the same general policy if you like, came out of post WW2 operational research combined with magical divination on the optimal course of action. In a larger war, it would not work. As long as conscription seems necessary and seems fair, then it generally continues. The Western governments are not averse to propaganda and heavily promoting the military to young boys, who see it as a rite of passage and, to some, a great adventure. It helps that the casualties of draftees are kept low and that the pay and fringe benefits are quite good. Barton's PersonalityIndeed. His ascension to the premiership reflects a social shift towards the value of professionalism and results over outward flashiness. There are quite a few who yearn for a British Kennedy of a more identifiably left-wing bent, but they are in the minority. British Economic ChatterI can't see it having a decisive effect on British economic performance, given that Germany and Japan in @ had very conformist cultural mores at the same period. It will have consequences, but not in a decisive way unless there is a distinct and available alternative for those it does not quite suit. Conservative LeadersThe more I think about it, the more interesting a Profumo might be. Powell has been done a few times in alternate history, although never as himself, but rather as a charicature of a far right wing figure, but there is room to explore several different alternatives. Heath hasn't got a mention as I'm not quite sure that he would automatically fit into the Conservatives on Dark Earth with a strong Liberal Party presence in the political centre. SocietyIt will not please everyone, although by and large, it is more the prospect of a lack of some television programmes that has elicited comment on other sites. There isn't the social or Parliamentary support for any change on the official position regarding homosexuality given the more religious society among other reasons, but on the other side of the coin there hasn't been the same level of pursuit of those inclined in the absence of the introduction of the offence of gross indecency in the 19th century. Hanging, as said, remains popular with a very large majority of society and a majority of Parliament, given the absence of concerns of wrongful execution resulting from a number of high profile 1950s cases, among other causes. Divorce and abortion laws reflect the strong role of the Church and its traditionalist views. I haven't set out to create a utopia or dystopia, as both can be quite boring and predictable, but to follow the general drivers of development for good or for ill.
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Post by simon darkshade on Oct 7, 2019 15:18:03 GMT
I slapped together a few numbers on British economic development between 1960 and 1964, specifically in the area of budgets.
1960 1960 GDP: $2,195,625,187,329 (£87,825 million) 1960 Revenue: 35.73% of GDP (28.07% from taxation and excise) 1960 Major Budget Spending 32.476% of GDP
Defence: 12.5 % (£10,978.125 million) Health: 4.1% Education: 3.71% Pensions: 2.66% Welfare: 2.2% Trade and Industry: 1.53% Space: 0.89% Colonial Office: 0.72% Housing: 0.64% Home Office: 0.64% Debt Interest: 0.48% Foreign Aid: 0.456% Energy and Power: 0.44% India: 0.42% Agriculture and Food: 0.4% Commonwealth: 0.37% Other: 0.32%
Surplus: 1.97% (£1730.15 million)
1961 1961 GDP: $2,304,741,728,282 (92,190 million) 1961 Revenue: 34.25% 1961 Major Budget Spending: 32.62%
Defence: 11.8% (10,878) Health: 4.3% Education: 3.87% Pensions: 2.89% Welfare: 2.3% Transport 1.65% Space: 1.1% Colonial Office: 0.85% Housing: 0.65% Home Office: 0.65% Debt Interest: 0.5% Foreign Aid: 0.45% Energy and Power: 0.45% Agriculture and Food: 0.4% Commonwealth: 0.4% Other: 0.36%
Surplus: 1.63% (£1502.7 million)
1962 1962 GDP: $2,376,188,721,859 (95,048 million) 1962 Revenue: 34.125% of GDP 1962 Major Budget Spending: 32.975%
Defence: 11.2% (10,645) Health: 4.5% Education: 4% Pensions: 2.98% Welfare: 2.4% Transport 1.75% Space: 1.25% Colonial Office: 0.8% Housing: 0.75% Home Office: 0.75% Debt Interest: 0.5% Energy and Power: 0.48% Foreign Aid: 0.42% Agriculture and Food: 0.42% Commonwealth: 0.4% Other: 0.375%
Surplus: 1.15% (£1093.05 million)
1963 1963 GDP: $2,490,245,780,508 (99,610 million) 1963 Revenue: 34.96% 1963 Major Budget Spending: 33.64%
Defence: 10.4% (10,359) Health: 4.8% Education: 4.1% Pensions: 3.2% Welfare: 2.5% Transport 1.9% Space: 1.7% Home Office: 0.82% Colonial Office: 0.75% Housing: 0.7% Energy and Power: 0.52% Debt Interest: 0.5% Commonwealth: 0.5% Agriculture and Food: 0.45% Foreign Aid: 0.4% Other: 0.4%
Surplus: 1.32% (£1314.85 million)
1964 1964 GDP: $2,621,481,773,141 (104,859 million) 1964 Revenue: 34.92% 1964 Major Budget Spending: 34.04%
Defence: 9.9% (£10,381 million/$270 billion) Health: 5% ($131 billion) Education: 4.25% ($111 billion) Pensions: 3.3% ($86.5 billion) Welfare: 2.5% ($65.5 billion) Transport 2.15% ($56.36 billion) Space: 2.1% ($55 billion) Home Office: 0.87% ($22.8 billion) Colonial Office: 0.63% ($16.5 billion) Housing: 0.6% ($15.72 billion) Energy and Power: 0.53% ($13.89 billion) Debt Interest: 0.5% ($13.1 billion) Commonwealth: 0.5% ($13.1 billion) Agriculture and Food: 0.46% ($12 billion) Foreign Aid: 0.375% ($9.83 billion) Other: 0.375% ($9.83 billion)
Surplus 0.88% (£922.76 million/$23 billion)
Comparison of Britain in 1960 in @
Defence: 6.76% ($30.61 billion) Education: 4.06% ($18.4 billion/$341 per capita) Debt Interest: 3.99% ($18 billion) Welfare: 3.63% ($16.4 billion/$313 per capita) Health: 3.36% ($15.2 billion/$290 per capita) Transport: 3.03% ($13.7 billion/$262 per capita) Pensions: 2.87% ($12.99 billion/$248 per capita) Fuel and Power: 1.81% ($8.2 billion) Housing: 1.62% ($7.3 billion) General Government: 1.24% ($5.6 billion) Agriculture, Fishing and Food: 1.24% ($5.6 billion) Protection: 0.82% ($3.7 billion)
National Debt As of 1960, total debt is £12,834 million, or 14% of GDP (after the 1960 surplus was used to pay it down).
Overall, prior to the change in governments, some trends are beginning to become apparent: welfare, education and pensions are slowly increasing; space expenditure is increasing; the plans from the 1961 Defence White Paper regarding the defence budget are slowly kicking into gear; and capital spending on housing is winding down comparatively after the 1950s boom.
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Oct 7, 2019 15:51:28 GMT
sdarkshade That last bit shows how much bigger the darkearth British economy is. I.e. for 1960 Dark Earth British defence spending 1960 - Defence: 12.5 % (£10,978.125 million) Dark Earth British defence spending 1964 - Defence: 9.9% (£10,381 million/$270 billion) - i.e. £1 is about $27 dollars, quite an exchange rate!
Our Earth British defence spending 1960 - Defence: 6.76% ($30.61 billion)
So to use the 64 exchange rate the OTL 1960 spending $30billion compares to DarkEarth $270 billion. I.e. nearly 9 times as much. True defence spending is nearly twice the % of GDP but that still suggests that British GDP in 1960 is about 4.5 times as great as OTL. Unless I'm totally fouled up somewhere. Even with a Britain ~2.25 times larger that is quite a boost. I can't remember what the darkearth British population is compared to OTL.
Steve
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Post by simon darkshade on Oct 7, 2019 17:03:22 GMT
The 1964 population is ~129 million.
The approximate cross-universe exchange rate is £1 (Dark Earth 1960s) = $25 (1990 USD). As I've mentioned before, I do use 1990 USD as a baseline for exchange, as Angus Maddison's works on the historical statistics of the world economy have been my go-to reference for the last 14 years or so.
Our 1964 Britain + Ireland has a GDP of $530 billion as compared to the Dark Earth one of $2621 billion. When adjusted for the population difference, it jumps up to $1315 billion, or just on half of the Dark Earth number.
Where does this difference come from?
In 1900, for example, the difference is ~$184 billion Earth vs $412 billion Dark Earth, or 224%; once adjusted for the population, it is 116% of Earth. The answer lies in some growth patterns
Historical
1900-1914: + 18.58% 1920-1930: + 17.5% 1930-1940: + 24% 1940-1950: + 5% 1950-1960: + 23%
Dark Earth
1900-1914: + 22% 1920-1930: + 25% 1930-1940: + 18% 1940-1950: + 30% 1950-1960: + 39.7%
Historically, Britain had a very rough recovery from the war, recording next to 0 net growth ($347 billion to $347 billion). Here, there is a small but distinct recovery after the immediate postwar recession ($1130 billion to $1320 billion). The subsequent decade was a time of reasonable growth for Britain on Earth, but much greater in Dark Earth due to several different factors that have been explored thus far - increased exports, a thriving Commonwealth free trade zone, greater industrial coordination and recovery, an earlier end to austerity and rationing and less of a crunch from Korean war rearmament.
The 1920s being a decade of steady growth rather than largely a mixture of recessions and anaemic recovery also contribute to the better position.
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Post by simon darkshade on Oct 7, 2019 17:51:14 GMT
A little bit more on the National Debt:
Dark Earth In 1939, prewar, it stood at 2579 million pounds, rising in the following pattern:
1939/40: 419 1940/41: 901 1941/42: 1234 1942/43: 1092 1943/44: 2168 1944/45: 2554 1945/46: 3190 1946/47: 4531 1947/48: 697
The peak level reaches 19365 million, or 61% of GDP compared to 220%. Lend Lease and other US loans amount to 4270 million of that.
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Post by simon darkshade on Oct 9, 2019 14:19:57 GMT
To conclude my little run of stats, whilst I'm knocking out some more adventures of Sam Johnson, here are the numbers for 1965; none of them give too much of an insight into the events of the next year, so they don't really count as spoilers.
It does show the statistical trends of the USA and USSR breaking out in front; China coming along strongly even in the face of middling growth due to sheer size; Germany and Japan making strong economic and industrial progress; and France shooting up the ranks
1965 Largest GDPs
1.) USA: $7,267,556,576,138 (+ 6.84%) 2.) USSR: $2,914,385,039,111 (+ 7.31%) 3.) Germany: $2,738,705,679,103 (+ 5.29%) 4.) Britain: $2,720,573,784,166 (+ 3.78%) 5.) Japan: $1,925,539,795,465 (+ 5.49%) 6.) India: $1,595,766,917,609 (+ 4.62%) 7.) China: $1,487,795,064,195 (-3.9%) 8.) France: $1,478,484,800,906 (+ 7.21%) 9.) Canada: $1,331,352,036,339 (+6.19%) 10.) Italy: $976,922,958,718 (+2.88%) 11.) Austria-Hungary: $807,083,225,119 (+3.2%) 12.) Benelux: $762,677,989,121 (+5.16%) 13.) Spain: $745,073,268,258 (+7.74%) 14.) Brazil: $689,421,487,004 (+9.53%) 15.) Mexico: $636,011,231,612 (+8.92%) 16.) Argentina: $603,875,041,841 (+4.36%) 17.) Sweden: $507,680,527,502 (+4.25%) 18.) Australia: $499,012,345,624 (+3.15%) 19.) Indonesia: $462,525,865,983 (+2.46%) 20.) Poland: $438,865,132,157 (+3.33%)
1965 Largest Populations
1.) China: 816,743,856 2.) India: 572,211,932 3.) Soviet Union: 338,455,982 4.) USA: 302,459,117 5.) Japan: 232,268,884 6.) Indonesia: 197,085,367 7.) Germany: 171,786,148 8.) France: 132,044,523 9.) Britain: 129,694,325 10.) Brazil: 127,184,918 11.) Mexico: 116,994,762
1965 Defence Spending
1.) USA: $741,290,770,766 (10.2%) 2.) USSR: $518,760,536,962 (17.8%) 3.) Britain: $263,895,657,064 (9.7%) 4.) Germany: $219,096,454,328 (8%) 5.) China: $185,974,383,024 (12.5%) 6.) Japan: $150,192,104,046 (7.8%) 7.) France: $124,192,723,276 (8.4%) 8.) India: $114,895,218,068 (7.2%) 9.) Canada: $93,194,642,544 (7%) 10.) Italy: $62,523,069,358 (6.4%) 11.) Austria-Hungary: $58,109,992,209 (7.2%)
1965 Share of World Industrial Output
1.) USA: 30% 2.) Soviet Union: 12.5% 3.) Germany: 9.2% 4.) Britain: 8.4% 5.) Japan: 7.5% 6.) France: 4.8% 7.) China: 4.6% 8.) Canada: 4% 9.) India 3.8% 10.) Italy: 3.5% 11.) Austria-Hungary: 3.3%
Steel Production 1965 (million tons)
1.) USA 163 2.) USSR 125 3.) Germany 72 4.) Britain 58 5.) Japan: 46 6.) AH: 44 7.) Canada 40 8.) Poland 36 9.) China: 32 10.) France: 31 11.) Benelux 28
Coal Production 1965 (million tons)
1.) USA: 625 2.) USSR: 578 3.) Germany: 420 4.) Britain: 403 5.) China: 312 6.) Poland: 269 7.) Austria-Hungary: 200 8.) France: 161 9.) India: 134 10.) South Africa: 100 11.) Canada: 72
Automobile Production 1965
1.) USA: 12,547,983 2.) Germany: 3,944,026 3.) USSR: 2,957,888 4.) Japan: 2,947,322 5.) Britain: 2,936,559 6.) France: 2,409,855 7.) Canada: 1,915,646 8.) Italy: 1,757,845 9.) Austria-Hungary: 1,063,248 10.) Spain: 982,837 11.) Benelux: 699,352
Merchant Shipbuilding 1965
1.) USA: 3,826,094 tons 2.) Britain: 2,941,785 tons 3.) Japan: 2,873,112 tons 4.) USSR: 1,788,266 tons 5.) Germany: 1,544,819 tons 6.) China: 1,326,954 tons
Aircraft Production 1965
1.) USSR: 4832 2.) USA: 3529 3.) China: 2596 4.) Britain: 1746 5.) France: 1283 6.) Germany: 1237 7.) Japan: 996 8.)Canada: 618 9.) Italy: 574 10.) Austria-Hungary: 540 11.) Sweden: 529
Tank Production 1965
1.) USSR: 8685 2.) USA: 4526 3.) China: 3984 4.) Britain: 2569 5.) Germany: 2476 6.) France: 1873 7.) India: 1254 8.) Italy: 1013 9.) Canada: 982 10.) Japan: 821 11.) Austria-Hungary: 810
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 9, 2019 14:25:50 GMT
To conclude my little run of stats, whilst I'm knocking out some more adventures of Sam Johnson, here are the numbers for 1965; none of them give too much of an insight into the events of the next year, so they don't really count as spoilers. It does show the statistical trends of the USA and USSR breaking out in front; China coming along strongly even in the face of middling growth due to sheer size; Germany and Japan making strong economic and industrial progress; and France shooting up the ranks 1965 Largest GDPs1.) USA: $7,267,556,576,138 (+ 6.84%) 2.) USSR: $2,914,385,039,111 (+ 7.31%) 3.) Germany: $2,738,705,679,103 (+ 5.29%) 4.) Britain: $2,720,573,784,166 (+ 3.78%) 5.) Japan: $1,925,539,795,465 (+ 5.49%) 6.) India: $1,595,766,917,609 (+ 4.62%) 7.) China: $1,487,795,064,195 (-3.9%) 8.) France: $1,478,484,800,906 (+ 7.21%) 9.) Canada: $1,331,352,036,339 (+6.19%) 10.) Italy: $976,922,958,718 (+2.88%) 11.) Austria-Hungary: $807,083,225,119 (+3.2%) 12.) Benelux: $762,677,989,121 (+5.16%) 13.) Spain: $745,073,268,258 (+7.74%) 14.) Brazil: $689,421,487,004 (+9.53%) 15.) Mexico: $636,011,231,612 (+8.92%) 16.) Argentina: $603,875,041,841 (+4.36%) 17.) Sweden: $507,680,527,502 (+4.25%) 18.) Australia: $499,012,345,624 (+3.15%) 19.) Indonesia: $462,525,865,983 (+2.46%) 20.) Poland: $438,865,132,157 (+3.33%) Germany has done well if it is already number 3 in the list.
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