steffen
Ensign
Posts: 300
Likes: 18
|
Post by steffen on Jun 18, 2018 7:13:35 GMT
I can see a South Germany being formed being made up of Bavaria,Württemberg,Baden,Hesse,Thuringia and Saxony. The other places that are not part of 1930 Prussia but are under control of 1990 West ore East Germany will by govern either directly ore indirectly by South Germany while what is now 1930 Prussia will be occupied mostly until it can become a independent country by the French,British, United States and what is now Russia. Hope, you can´t dissolve germany (FRG), without asking the people. If you violate this, you basically force the modern germans into the camp of hard-rightwing-1930er germans. There is no legal condition to do that. Worse, the 1930-germans of prussia had done nothing. To break the law in the way you describe mean to break law worldwide. Basically you enforce the right of the "strongman" - the consequences around the world will be VERY negative, because it shows that certain (key-)players give a fu.k about laws. If you judge 1930-germany and the citizens by modern law you can do nothing. Poland would be furious, but the 1930ers could do nothing about the loss of a few million polish people who vanished. And nobody could think about enforced "resettlement" of 10 million germans of 1930 for - well nothing they had done yet. This is an extreme but nice example that the simplyfied ASB-tricks run against a wall. 1930-germany had done nothing hostile. That is a fact. The things that germans out of this area WILL do in 10 or 15 years had not been done yet by them. So nobody who want a legal system worth its name could do anything. Hell yes, in a post1945-situation the allies could slaughter millions of these people, because nobody asked about them. think about the plans of the americans (Morgenthau in its less public way of the JCS-directive) of OTL. But in 1990 - on what base? For beeing "evil germans" they (the allies) could slaughter them, kill em, enslave em for doing - well nothing? If you follow the laws of 1990 you can´t touch em. If you follow the right of the "Allies of 1945", you can do what you want - but it neither legal nor will it help em. The idea that the allies could "govern" that part of germany and make a separate state out of it - against the will of the people in it - is sorry to say silly. On what base would the allies do that? Because they love to slaughter innocents, enslave em, rape em, kill em? I doubt that this would or could be done. Again - they transferred the 1930-prussian province into 1990. Crimes commited by people later cannot be judged against people who have not done anything yet. Also you cannot know how the "prussians" would react if they learn about the - theoretical commited later - crimes by them. For sure you will have VERY nasty nazis and die-hard communists (like Thälmann) you have to solve - personally i see them facing lots of "accidents", esp. the high-ranking list of OTL nazi elite would have a hard time (basically "all" nations with secret service would try to hunt em down), but the idea that the part of germany that was time-travelled would be "generally invaded, separated and supressed" is not possible in 1990. If you timetravel prussia of 1910 to 1950 - that could happen, maybe latest in 1960 also, but later? nope. The world had changed after, esp. in the western world but also in russia, so you miss the brutality you would need to enforce it. Also you have the problem that you punish say 500-600.000 people who were targets of the nazi crimes themself. That alone is a huge problem in itself, because these people mostly would not say "slaughter them", they were germans, lots of them die-hard-rightwing germans. I doubt they would see a polish force that push em out of their homes (Breslau/Wrozlaw) as liberation forces, but would fight em. Next to this you have the german state - the FRG. From their legal base in 1990 the parts that are prussia are german area. The final contract about the modern borders was signed later. So the FRG has the correct point by saying that this is germany. I doubt you will find any support IN germany for such methods or ideas you described. Add in that at last 30% of the germans in the other areas are people who have their core in the again german settled areas, you have to explain why the southern german people would like the idea to enslave their relatives (partly themselves!)
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 23,482
Likes: 12,077
|
Post by stevep on Jun 18, 2018 15:19:36 GMT
Steffen has a point that I forgot a substantial minority of East Germany is still present, although depending on the exact timing of the POD may mean its formally as well as effectively been absorbed into the FRG. However he's on less strong ground in saying that the translated lands and people who have now appeared are automatically part of the FRG as they date from before its founding and hence were never part of the FRG. [Also he may not actually want to do that as that would imply that 1930 lands rights/identities were supplanted by 1990 ones which would mean Poland could make a similar claim about the areas it lost, which were never part of or claimed by the FRG.]
That said I'm not saying there will be some continuation of the 4 power treaty agreements as while some might have a legal case - there's going to be a hell of a mess here and a lot of lawyers are going to be getting very rich probably for decades to come - it may not be the best solution. Suspect there will be a need for some sort of up-time force in the former Polish lands to provide stability and law and order because Poland, having lost something like a third of its territory and population is unlikely to respond well to this new German invasion as they will at least initially see it and similarly the down-time Germans are going to be unhappy with what they see as a Polish invasion. Which they won't have much capacity to stop initially.
Something will have to be decided about what happens to Nazis and war criminals. Some crimes have been committed originally, as rauchel has already mentioned, although things like using forbidden symbols is a bit dodgy as those laws related to the modern FRG and never applied to 1930 Prussia. Possibly a fix is that the international community might give some sort of recognition to the FRG claims as it would legitimise such prosecutions. However for the wider number of criminals it would be politically unacceptable for many people to see mass murderers walking the streets and also some of the worst cases might be in danger of actions by people who oppose their actions. However since those actions occurred ~70+ years in the past, have sometimes seen people punished for them and haven't yet occurred for the 1930 people the entire situation is a total mess.
I can't see Poland getting its land back as that land and its population have effectively gone. Which creates a problem of a new Polish corridor, which with a lot of down-time Germans, many with deeply expansionist views could cause problems, or at least tension. Its a bit better as Gdansk is still clearly Polish so Poland does have an unchallengable legal claim to it and its facilities.
Overall things are going to be a hell of a mess for several years at least even apart from the huge economic disruption.
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 64,932
Likes: 46,076
|
Post by lordroel on Jun 18, 2018 15:24:42 GMT
Steffen has a point that I forgot a substantial minority of East Germany is still present, although depending on the exact timing of the POD may mean its formally as well as effectively been absorbed into the FRG. However he's on less strong ground in saying that the translated lands and people who have now appeared are automatically part of the FRG as they date from before its founding and hence were never part of the FRG. [Also he may not actually want to do that as that would imply that 1930 lands rights/identities were supplanted by 1990 ones which would mean Poland could make a similar claim about the areas it lost, which were never part of or claimed by the FRG.] That said I'm not saying there will be some continuation of the 4 power treaty agreements as while some might have a legal case - there's going to be a hell of a mess here and a lot of lawyers are going to be getting very rich probably for decades to come - it may not be the best solution. Suspect there will be a need for some sort of up-time force in the former Polish lands to provide stability and law and order because Poland, having lost something like a third of its territory and population is unlikely to respond well to this new German invasion as they will at least initially see it and similarly the down-time Germans are going to be unhappy with what they see as a Polish invasion. Which they won't have much capacity to stop initially. Something will have to be decided about what happens to Nazis and war criminals. Some crimes have been committed originally, as rauchel has already mentioned, although things like using forbidden symbols is a bit dodgy as those laws related to the modern FRG and never applied to 1930 Prussia. Possibly a fix is that the international community might give some sort of recognition to the FRG claims as it would legitimise such prosecutions. However for the wider number of criminals it would be politically unacceptable for many people to see mass murderers walking the streets and also some of the worst cases might be in danger of actions by people who oppose their actions. However since those actions occurred ~70+ years in the past, have sometimes seen people punished for them and haven't yet occurred for the 1930 people the entire situation is a total mess.
I can't see Poland getting its land back as that land and its population have effectively gone. Which creates a problem of a new Polish corridor, which with a lot of down-time Germans, many with deeply expansionist views could cause problems, or at least tension. Its a bit better as Gdansk is still clearly Polish so Poland does have an unchallengable legal claim to it and its facilities. Overall things are going to be a hell of a mess for several years at least even apart from the huge economic disruption.
You right, that is also a question that bothers me, can we trail Hitler, Goering, Himmler from 1930 for crimes they will commit over the next 15 years, yes i would like to do a Guy Fawkes thing on them, but in 1930 they are not yet in power, i do think the Soviet Union and Israel will have no problem with trailing them, they suffered so much because of them, but still, can you trail a person for crimes he commit in the future, after all, they are not the same person they where in the history that we now due them having get in contact with the 1990 world,
|
|
raunchel
Commander
Posts: 1,795
Likes: 1,178
|
Post by raunchel on Jun 18, 2018 15:40:35 GMT
Steffen has a point that I forgot a substantial minority of East Germany is still present, although depending on the exact timing of the POD may mean its formally as well as effectively been absorbed into the FRG. However he's on less strong ground in saying that the translated lands and people who have now appeared are automatically part of the FRG as they date from before its founding and hence were never part of the FRG. [Also he may not actually want to do that as that would imply that 1930 lands rights/identities were supplanted by 1990 ones which would mean Poland could make a similar claim about the areas it lost, which were never part of or claimed by the FRG.] That said I'm not saying there will be some continuation of the 4 power treaty agreements as while some might have a legal case - there's going to be a hell of a mess here and a lot of lawyers are going to be getting very rich probably for decades to come - it may not be the best solution. Suspect there will be a need for some sort of up-time force in the former Polish lands to provide stability and law and order because Poland, having lost something like a third of its territory and population is unlikely to respond well to this new German invasion as they will at least initially see it and similarly the down-time Germans are going to be unhappy with what they see as a Polish invasion. Which they won't have much capacity to stop initially. Something will have to be decided about what happens to Nazis and war criminals. Some crimes have been committed originally, as rauchel has already mentioned, although things like using forbidden symbols is a bit dodgy as those laws related to the modern FRG and never applied to 1930 Prussia. Possibly a fix is that the international community might give some sort of recognition to the FRG claims as it would legitimise such prosecutions. However for the wider number of criminals it would be politically unacceptable for many people to see mass murderers walking the streets and also some of the worst cases might be in danger of actions by people who oppose their actions. However since those actions occurred ~70+ years in the past, have sometimes seen people punished for them and haven't yet occurred for the 1930 people the entire situation is a total mess.
I can't see Poland getting its land back as that land and its population have effectively gone. Which creates a problem of a new Polish corridor, which with a lot of down-time Germans, many with deeply expansionist views could cause problems, or at least tension. Its a bit better as Gdansk is still clearly Polish so Poland does have an unchallengable legal claim to it and its facilities. Overall things are going to be a hell of a mess for several years at least even apart from the huge economic disruption.
You right, that is also a question that bothers me, can we trail Hitler, Goering, Himmler from 1930 for crimes they will commit over the next 15 years, yes i would like to do a Guy Fawkes thing on them, but in 1930 they are not yet in power, i do think the Soviet Union and Israel will have no problem with trailing them, they suffered so much because of them, but still, can you trail a person for crimes he commit in the future, after all, they are not the same person they where in the history that we now due them having get in contact with the 1990 world, You can still get them under Weimar law for a fair few things that they did. And if you're willing to twist things a bit, you can claim that FRG law applied since the moment of the transition, allowing you to try them for a fair few things, because a lot of what these people will be doing at this moment will already count as crimes.
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 64,932
Likes: 46,076
|
Post by lordroel on Jun 18, 2018 15:44:52 GMT
You right, that is also a question that bothers me, can we trail Hitler, Goering, Himmler from 1930 for crimes they will commit over the next 15 years, yes i would like to do a Guy Fawkes thing on them, but in 1930 they are not yet in power, i do think the Soviet Union and Israel will have no problem with trailing them, they suffered so much because of them, but still, can you trail a person for crimes he commit in the future, after all, they are not the same person they where in the history that we now due them having get in contact with the 1990 world, You can still get them under Weimar law for a fair few things that they did. And if you're willing to twist things a bit, you can claim that FRG law applied since the moment of the transition, allowing you to try them for a fair few things, because a lot of what these people will be doing at this moment will already count as crimes. Well you are right, let President of the German Reich Paul von Hindenburg first try to see if he can sideline NSDAP, maybe the military and the industrialist in the Free State of Prussia might decide that its best if the NSDAP and Hitler are not going to cuase any trouble.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 23,482
Likes: 12,077
|
Post by stevep on Jun 18, 2018 15:47:56 GMT
Steffen has a point that I forgot a substantial minority of East Germany is still present, although depending on the exact timing of the POD may mean its formally as well as effectively been absorbed into the FRG. However he's on less strong ground in saying that the translated lands and people who have now appeared are automatically part of the FRG as they date from before its founding and hence were never part of the FRG. [Also he may not actually want to do that as that would imply that 1930 lands rights/identities were supplanted by 1990 ones which would mean Poland could make a similar claim about the areas it lost, which were never part of or claimed by the FRG.] That said I'm not saying there will be some continuation of the 4 power treaty agreements as while some might have a legal case - there's going to be a hell of a mess here and a lot of lawyers are going to be getting very rich probably for decades to come - it may not be the best solution. Suspect there will be a need for some sort of up-time force in the former Polish lands to provide stability and law and order because Poland, having lost something like a third of its territory and population is unlikely to respond well to this new German invasion as they will at least initially see it and similarly the down-time Germans are going to be unhappy with what they see as a Polish invasion. Which they won't have much capacity to stop initially. Something will have to be decided about what happens to Nazis and war criminals. Some crimes have been committed originally, as rauchel has already mentioned, although things like using forbidden symbols is a bit dodgy as those laws related to the modern FRG and never applied to 1930 Prussia. Possibly a fix is that the international community might give some sort of recognition to the FRG claims as it would legitimise such prosecutions. However for the wider number of criminals it would be politically unacceptable for many people to see mass murderers walking the streets and also some of the worst cases might be in danger of actions by people who oppose their actions. However since those actions occurred ~70+ years in the past, have sometimes seen people punished for them and haven't yet occurred for the 1930 people the entire situation is a total mess.
I can't see Poland getting its land back as that land and its population have effectively gone. Which creates a problem of a new Polish corridor, which with a lot of down-time Germans, many with deeply expansionist views could cause problems, or at least tension. Its a bit better as Gdansk is still clearly Polish so Poland does have an unchallengable legal claim to it and its facilities. Overall things are going to be a hell of a mess for several years at least even apart from the huge economic disruption.
You right, that is also a question that bothers me, can we trail Hitler, Goering, Himmler from 1930 for crimes they will commit over the next 15 years, yes i would like to do a Guy Fawkes thing on them, but in 1930 they are not yet in power, i do think the Soviet Union and Israel will have no problem with trailing them, they suffered so much because of them, but still, can you trail a person for crimes he commit in the future, after all, they are not the same person they where in the history that we now due them having get in contact with the 1990 world,
One possible argument might be that those people may be from 1930 but their now in 1990 and hence can be held responsible for crimes their older selves committed in TTL. After all they are 'here' now and for a lot of their crimes there are no statute of limitations. Although this is of course a legal minefield [involving 100Terraton anti-matter mines in this case!] Plus in a few cases where victims, especially murder ones, were people located in Prussia in 1930 and are now alive again you probably couldn't charge someone with murdering someone who's still alive. As I say its all very, very messy. Basically what constitutes a person and in what way are the 1930 Germans identical or not to their 1930 versions from OTL. [Which raises the question that I could see some defence councils arguing they are from a parallel TL and there's no evidence they would be as evil as their originals in OTL.
Alternatively possibly we could use a varient on the old Soviet method and lock many of the big names up as incurable insane?
PS I'm guessing you mean trial rather than trail?
|
|
steffen
Ensign
Posts: 300
Likes: 18
|
Post by steffen on Jun 19, 2018 8:42:41 GMT
You right, that is also a question that bothers me, can we trail Hitler, Goering, Himmler from 1930 for crimes they will commit over the next 15 years, yes i would like to do a Guy Fawkes thing on them, but in 1930 they are not yet in power, i do think the Soviet Union and Israel will have no problem with trailing them, they suffered so much because of them, but still, can you trail a person for crimes he commit in the future, after all, they are not the same person they where in the history that we now due them having get in contact with the 1990 world,
One possible argument might be that those people may be from 1930 but their now in 1990 and hence can be held responsible for crimes their older selves committed in TTL. After all they are 'here' now and for a lot of their crimes there are no statute of limitations. Although this is of course a legal minefield [involving 100Terraton anti-matter mines in this case!] Plus in a few cases where victims, especially murder ones, were people located in Prussia in 1930 and are now alive again you probably couldn't charge someone with murdering someone who's still alive. As I say its all very, very messy. Basically what constitutes a person and in what way are the 1930 Germans identical or not to their 1930 versions from OTL. [Which raises the question that I could see some defence councils arguing they are from a parallel TL and there's no evidence they would be as evil as their originals in OTL.
Alternatively possibly we could use a varient on the old Soviet method and lock many of the big names up as incurable insane?
PS I'm guessing you mean trial rather than trail?
Sorry, that doesn´t work. Example: Hein Blöd, born 1920, enters the SS in 1941, helps to kill 300.000 jews and slaves in Auschwitz. IN 1930 - the time he was switched he is 10 years old. If you try to bring him to justice (for crimes he did in our world in 1942-44) you have to punish a ten year old INNOCENT child. No judge on this planet - if he is not part of a dictatorship and follow orders will even touch such "we punish you for crimes you haven´t done yet"-twists. Never. Worse - the nazis who are adults, like Bormann, Heydrich, Himmler and co have done NOTHING you could try to bring em into jail now. Did Heydrich plan OTL the holocaust (Wannsee-conference)? - hell yes. But in 1930 he did nothing that you could use for a trial. So if you bring him to a court EVERY free court will let him give free, has to give him free. Any lawyer who could count till 2 could argue, that crimes that his dead counterpart had done in 1942 (for example) cannot be bring onto a person who - in 1930/90 hadn´t done, worse - he cannot do because the people his alter ego had killed in 1942 is dead and so cannot be killed by that person, again. If one touch that fundamental right he destroy and credibility of laws. So this timewarp means that you have people who deserve punishment in a way nobody could write could live a peacefull and free live in germany. For sure nobody would be unhappy if they die by "mysterious" accidents, but i bet - if you bring Adolf hitler to jerusalem, every single judge would set him free if you find an attorney who would try to bring him to justice. Just because the 1930-hitler has done nothing. And the idea about splitting germany - as you mentioned - is wrong. Sorry. The laws of the FRG had made clear that it is the succsessor of the III.Reich, that is the succsessor of the weimar republic. Transfer parts of the old reich into the year 1990 and you face the situation - at last in 1990 pre 4+2 contracts - that the germans of 1930 living in parts of modern poland are still germans living on german ground. That was the legal status of the "taken areas" till that treaty that solved the border conflict between germany and poland. naturally the polish state could try to get these areas into its hands, but how should/could they act? Kill/deport the millions of germans (30ers) who live here and have done zero? They also had not killed the polish people living there... on what base could the polish try to get support? 10 million germans live on "german ground" that could/would have been full legaly polish if things had gone their way (as OTL). Now you have poland, that had lost what? 10-15 million people that got replaced by 10 million germans. Even if you could find someone who supported the idea that the borders should be as they were before the transfer, if the polish start to expell the people that is the breaking point. Such ASB-scenarios are not so easy to solve, because such things create a huge problem and you need an answer for that. But the idea that the rest of germany (that had their homes 3 generations earlier in these "prussian" areas) would look in the other direction, allow the "allies" to enslave their grand-grand-parents for - well what exactly?, esp. not only in say eastprussia (that could work - because the modern germans have accepted (gladly as i want to mention) that this home had been lost by WW2), but also the CORE of western and eastern germany? Never. For sure germany fell in chaos, Bonn is in prussian area, so the german government (modern) is lost. The federal states will still exist, but for example parts of Baden-Württemberg will be suddenly full of 1930er-people. We also have not discussed the shock of these people - i mean they are in the worst economic crisis ever and suddenly they timewarp into the future, they learn that in 15 years 5 millions of them will be dead, millions more crippled and that obscure radikalinki hitler had caused the worst crimes in history - even worse - they, the 30er-people have supported him till the very end in this. Some could talk to their own older alter-ego, because lots of people from the eastern areas of 1930 were expulled and lived in the southern areas of 1990. The old government of 1930 would also face a shock. They are now surrounded by modern countries who are all vastly superior to anything the Reich (prussia) could muster... their dreams about reestablishing their empire have gone into smoke, esp. if countries like france have nuclear weapons, jets, even someone went to the moon!
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 23,482
Likes: 12,077
|
Post by stevep on Jun 19, 2018 13:24:31 GMT
Steffen I think your getting sidetracked again. The FRG may make a claim on 1930 Prussia but like so many issues under discussion here it could keep the lawyers happy [and wealthy ] for decades. Even assuming that the down-time Germans want to become part of the FRG. [Which is likely once they know the circumstances but by no means certain. Ditto in terms of the comments your made about Poland seeking to regain its lost lands by force. No one has suggested that, although there is likely to be some confusion and quite possibly violence on both sides until the facts are clear. That would require [fairly] modern Poland acting at beat like imperial Germany and at worse approaching the Nazis. [Although there would be some irony when you consider how many German wanks have a militaristic Germany acting in that sort of manner. ]
There is a problem with the younger war criminals but there are certain to be demands, especially from Poland, Israel and Russia but also others about the more senior ones. That will be legally and morally a gray area, as people have been saying but under the circumstances its going to be attempted.
Your likely in a few years time, when the dust starts to settle, to have a larger but much poorer and socially deeply divided Germany and also to see it fairly isolated politically. Both because of the attitude of many, probably still the majority of Germans and because of resentment over the fact that many war criminals will be walking about freely. Also a larger state, especially if there are elements from the 1930 Prussia who are advocating forced expansion, is likely to be feared by a lot of its neighbours.
Not sure what will happen with the wider Europe. Quite probably the EU [as it is now] won't exist or will be radically changed into a more federal system rather than a autocratic one. Thinking this because its largest funder will have seen an economic implosion and the 2nd one will be most unwilling to take up the slack. So either the EU will change drastically or there will be no appetite for eastwards expansion. So if the Soviet empire still implodes, which seems likely, there is likely to be NATO expansion but probably not EU.
|
|
steffen
Ensign
Posts: 300
Likes: 18
|
Post by steffen on Jun 20, 2018 8:16:15 GMT
Steffen I think your getting sidetracked again. The FRG may make a claim on 1930 Prussia but like so many issues under discussion here it could keep the lawyers happy [and wealthy ] for decades. Even assuming that the down-time Germans want to become part of the FRG. [Which is likely once they know the circumstances but by no means certain. Ditto in terms of the comments your made about Poland seeking to regain its lost lands by force. No one has suggested that, although there is likely to be some confusion and quite possibly violence on both sides until the facts are clear. That would require [fairly] modern Poland acting at beat like imperial Germany and at worse approaching the Nazis. [Although there would be some irony when you consider how many German wanks have a militaristic Germany acting in that sort of manner. ]
There is a problem with the younger war criminals but there are certain to be demands, especially from Poland, Israel and Russia but also others about the more senior ones. That will be legally and morally a gray area, as people have been saying but under the circumstances its going to be attempted.
Your likely in a few years time, when the dust starts to settle, to have a larger but much poorer and socially deeply divided Germany and also to see it fairly isolated politically. Both because of the attitude of many, probably still the majority of Germans and because of resentment over the fact that many war criminals will be walking about freely. Also a larger state, especially if there are elements from the 1930 Prussia who are advocating forced expansion, is likely to be feared by a lot of its neighbours.
Not sure what will happen with the wider Europe. Quite probably the EU [as it is now] won't exist or will be radically changed into a more federal system rather than a autocratic one. Thinking this because its largest funder will have seen an economic implosion and the 2nd one will be most unwilling to take up the slack. So either the EU will change drastically or there will be no appetite for eastwards expansion. So if the Soviet empire still implodes, which seems likely, there is likely to be NATO expansion but probably not EU.
Nah, you misinterpret my writing. With Prussia comming into 1990 you loose 10-x million modern polish people. That is a gigantic shock for the polish population. Period. Worse, the germans, the "hated and feared" neighbour suddenly come to existence from 1930. This means these prussians, who were OTL 10-15 years later active in massacring millions of polish people cannot defend themself from polish actions. But you still ignore the deciding point. You cannot punish somebody for crimes he haven´t done yet. Otherwise i could punish you for - say a crime you MAY do in 10 years. That is a core princip of any lawyer-system. It is clear that many would have proplems with a free running heydrich, himmler or hitler. But it is a matter of facts, you CANNOT bring em to jail. These people from 1930 have done no crimes (at last i do not know witch crimes they had done in 1930 you could bring em to justice for). The alter egos from our Time-line are dead. Hitler shot himself, goering commited sucide, like Himmler. So how on earth could you bring em to jail for things they couldn´t do - because the people they killed OTL are long dead? That is nothing about "lawyers get rich", that is plain justice. Yes - it is our - world wide accepted system. Commit a crime and face (sometimes) justice. But to punish people for crimes they could do in future - will not work., Not without blowing up the whole system and destroy any credibility of justice systems.Worldwide. And the conflict with poland is way bigger as i even described. Poland 1990 belived (rightfully) that the former german areas , now populated by millions of polish people is polish. But there was a grey zone, because without a peace treaty or final formal agreement the FRG still saw the borders of 31.12.1937 as the legal german borders. Not in the sense of "we are ready to enforce them", but in the sense of "we need a peace treaty, in that we will accept the new borders" - just as it happened 1991. Unfortunatly for this, the timewarp was 1990. Even worse - now you have millions of germans, from 1930 who also live rightfully - from their POV on that ground. There are two problems you ignored. a.) who will expulse these millions (if we remove the 3 millions from the sudentenareas we talk about 11 million german people) and how will this be enforced? b.) what is the reaction to this in germany, esp. in modern germany - if they are suddenly forced to face historical facts they had been ignored (or ignored themself). Either germany get back these borders (31.12.1937) or you have to remove these 11 millions from these areas. Why? Because they will not accept to be polish citizens, esp. not in a VERY hostile poland - what happend to the dozen or more million poles who lived yesterday here?. That is a can of worms nobody could solve peacefully. Either you have an expulsion, as brutal as the OTL one or you have poland that is suddenly a lot smaller. There is no 3rd option. Worse - you had ignored all the people from western and eastern countries IN this prussian territority, that also vanished. These are not only people but also nuclear weapons. They vanished - but would the countries that suffered these casulties (USSR, USA, maybe UK (i have no clue about the british military in germany from 1990 in the moment)) belive it? And yes - the prussian economy is 3rd world level. So germany loose 50% or more of its efficency. But - big but - the southern german countries are full of people who have their ancestry in these areas, esp. east of the elbe-river. Some will be even existing twice in that scenario. So expect the germans in the south will try to modernize the prussian economy quickly. Not in the invasion style, but they will offer help. If the rest of europe is smart - they will also offer support - but honestly i belive this. I see more a very negative reaction, so the germans will turn away from them. The EU is dead, without germany it is dead. Eastern europe will not join the EU, if rump germany(new germany - don´t know how we could call this new "old weimar")leave (problem - nobody could be enforced to leave) then you have a huge neutral country in the centre of europe, the 3rd largest economy partly gone. On the other hand you have lots and lots of excellent physicans, who are alive and kicking. Give em modern informations and you could suddenly have 10 or more excellent "Hawkings", maybe even on steroids. If the german neighbours are nasty, i wouldn´t be so sure that Einstein and co would leave germany. Yes, lots of war criminals of OTL would live in germany, but they haven´t done yet anything wrong Personally i hope the leading criminal nazis get a deserved punishment, but that cannot be the way of Eichmann... you lack the legal base for that. So "accidents" could happen, but nothing official. 2010 i see this germany (either in the borders of 31.12.37 or in the modern borders) gaining enough economic power to surpass the other european countries, in the second scenario (enforces expulsion of 11 million germans, with the help of UK and france (other way i cannot see that poland could do it) it is plain hostile to these countries (UK, france, poland), propably it will get help by china (who easily get a market and base in the EU - a win-win-scenario for both sides)) and you have hostile neighbours in the EWG - that is dead in cultural ways germany is much better - you have artists of excellent style (Thomas Mann to name one writer), science could be back in germany - as nr1. place for them (and all these excellent scientists would be alive again) if you avoid the second scenario and you want some better world that germany could be true neutral, a powerhouse of modern thinking and - after these accidents happened, had been rid of most nazi leaders. Or some of them could change (Goering?). Hitler, Himmler have to die, i think if that happens i would actual try it myself - serving in the army in 1990 i get the weapons (to smuggle a G3 out of the barracks was easy in that time), some well placed shots make the world better. But hopefully some professionals - from the USSR - do that for me.
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 64,932
Likes: 46,076
|
Post by lordroel on Jun 20, 2018 14:01:57 GMT
So, what army does the Weimar Republic have, because i think Poland and the Soviet Union (wonder if they will collapse due the appearance of the Weimar Republic) might join forces to intervene in Germany.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 23,482
Likes: 12,077
|
Post by stevep on Jun 20, 2018 14:43:31 GMT
So, what army does the Weimar Republic have, because i think Poland and the Soviet Union (wonder if they will collapse due the appearance of the Weimar Republic) might join forces to intervene in Germany.
At this point the Wiemar Republic has a very weak army as its largely been forced to comply with the Versailles restrictions. I..e 100k men max, no armour or military a/c or chemical weapons etc. There was a fair amount of cheating in terms of preparation for expansion and trainning in the Soviet Union but its very weak. Plus some of what's available will have been lost as they weren't in Prussia at the time and of course its at best 1930's technology.
As such Poland or the Soviets, despite the huge losses of the former, should be able to stomp it if it came to an all out fight but I can't see that happening. There might be some clashes in the immediate aftermath of the ISOT with the resultant confusion but once it starts to emerge what has happened other powers will set in to stop this. Neither Moscow, which will have been weakened somewhat and is already well on the way to imperial collapse, nor the western powers will seem any basis for Poland regaining lands since their now largely German occupied. Not to mention in the event of a wider conflict developing the rump DDR and FRG forces would oppose any serious Polish invasion.
Its possibly I suppose that the shock of the ISOT and fear of a much larger, if also in the short term much weaker Germany might trigger a strong right wing/militarist reaction in Moscow, which could make it very hairy for everybody. However I think that's a fairly low probability.
Another complication, assuming that figure of 43M for Prussia is correct is that they will form the majority of the German population and hence will be highly likely to dominate German politics. They will be technologically and socially very out of touch and also much more conservative than the rest of western Europe so that is likely to affect a hell of a lot of economic and political relations and interactions in the continent. How this will develop I don't know. However your going to see a massively different Europe and probably a lot of differences across the world.
|
|
steffen
Ensign
Posts: 300
Likes: 18
|
Post by steffen on Jun 20, 2018 15:06:19 GMT
So, what army does the Weimar Republic have, because i think Poland and the Soviet Union (wonder if they will collapse due the appearance of the Weimar Republic) might join forces to intervene in Germany. Well, the polish state could want to attack germany (FRG/prussia), because 10+ X Mio polish people have vanished. But - big but - the people who suddenly appear have nothing to do with that. Any "nazi wonderweapon"-story would quickly vanish, if you see that these people - say in eastprussia - are just peasants, with some horses and - for modern eyes - very crude living standards. Königsberg (Kaliningrad) suddenly have reapeared - every historican would know that you can´t fake dozens and dozens of cities over night. Think about wrozlaw/Breslau, prewar a fantastic city, after the war demolished and the polish had to struggle to rebuild it. Or think about "old berlin" of 1930. Nobody could fake that city, there are enough pictures and informations about that "old city". The latest fog would vanish if Thomas Mann, Albert Einstein, Heisenberg or Otto Hahn and Lise Meitner explain that they are no fake-actors but the true scientists. In that moment you have to face that ASB-problem, that something complete mad had happened, a time warp for 45 Million germans, removing in that move 50 million germans, 10-15 million poles and a significant military forces of the allies and russia. if you think that whole cities (Wolfsburg) have vanished, too - or the Nord-Ostsee-Kanal is in a different condition, the idea that this really happened will sink quickly in the minds of the surrounding nations. The Weimar-Army is not worth the paper, for sure they have some competent officers, but overall a polish battalion of armored troops could wipe em out... But the big question is: Would poland invade germany? After all the legal status was so that germany is part of NATO. An assault of a nato member by a hostile force need a reaction. For sure the southern german forces (Germany in the Nato (FRG) means here that they are still existing (esp. in bavaria, but also the other states of Germany) and the forces of the GDR in Thuringa and Saxona would exist).) would not allow a military invasion of german ground by polish forces against - again - complete innocent and helpless people who are as german as germans could be. There would be no need for that. If Weimarprussia thinks about "expansion" one shows em a video of Hiroshima, if some loud nationalist dream about polish areas, show some documentations about WW2 and how it ended. The russians would be very unhappy, because large parts of their "elite forces" would have vanished (these were stationed IN the GDR, most of them in areas now settled by old-germans) But the idea that someone start a war against these "prussians" because of - well what? to much bad british propaganda movies in b/w from the 50ties? and do these polish people who have vanished come back if poland attack germany?
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 64,932
Likes: 46,076
|
Post by lordroel on Jun 20, 2018 15:10:01 GMT
But the big question is: Would poland invade germany? After all the legal status was so that germany is part of NATO. An assault of a nato member by a hostile force need a reaction. But Poland can claim that, one Free State of Prussia (Wiemar Germany) is not a member of NATO and second that the loss of so many lives (Polish people who vanished) can be considers a act of war against Prussia, but that is just what i think.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 23,482
Likes: 12,077
|
Post by stevep on Jun 20, 2018 15:10:42 GMT
Steffen Your not listening. I said that there will be tension and possibly some relatively short term fighting but unless Russia goes massively militaristic there won't be a major war and Poland will have to accept the loss of something like 30% of its people [again!] At least this time its not a case of deliberate mass murder and its likely that Poland will get a lot of support economically from the west, especially assuming the Soviet empire still collapses so that isn't an issue and you get a democratic Poland as OTL. There's definitely no possibility of the western powers forcing a removal of German population from Russian and POlish 1990 lands they now occupy. Their likely to strongly oppose any such military action by others although if Russia was really determined to press for the restoration of the Kaliningrad enclave they might not be willing to go up against a nuclear super-power.
However the Poles, along with a lot of other neighbours are going to be very mistrustful of whatever Germany emerges from this mess, both because of its size and of the background of so many people from 1930's Prussia. The fact they haven't killed many people yet is less important than the determination they not be allowed to do so again. This will be doubly so if a legal solution to the issue isn't found. Both because you have so many historical killers about and because there has been no noticeable attempt to do anything about it. This is just going to be a question of human nature. As you say a legal way of bringing charges again at least the most prominent people in the historical war crimes may not be found but Arbitrary killing of a small number of the main people won't really change that. It does also create a worrying precedent for the future, especially as its partly the sort of behaviour that helped the Nazis to power in the 1st case and making martyrs out of some of the leading Nazis could make them look even more attractive to millions of down-timers, who will be greatly concerned anyway at the very alien world they find themselves in. The question, given the number of down-timers, as well as attempting to absorb the remaining East Germans from 1990 and the tension between Germany and it neighbours means the question is what sort of Germany emerges.
I doubt, even under the best of circumstances, that Germany will be the sort of powerhouse that you suggest by 2018. Its likely, provided there are no serious problems to be recovering and being a major economic power in Europe again but then Europe is likely to be vastly different. The EEC/EU, if it still exists is likely to be vastly different from OTL and could very likely be working around the basic principle of preventing economic domination of Europe by a future Germany. Its going to have to change drastically anyway as its going to have far less resources as I said in a previous post.
If no practical legal solution is found to the question of those who OTL became major war criminals then you are likely to see people like Einstein leaving Prussia, both for security reasons and possibly as a disgust response. After all, by your own argument about not blaming people for what they haven't done yet and also given the population superiority of Prussia what is the basis for the FRG to impose its laws on Prussia? Would they even have a basis for banning the Nazi party, a perfectly legal party [albeit disliked by many] in 1930 Prussia, or other steps like banning Nazi symbols.
|
|
steffen
Ensign
Posts: 300
Likes: 18
|
Post by steffen on Jun 20, 2018 15:29:48 GMT
But the big question is: Would poland invade germany? After all the legal status was so that germany is part of NATO. An assault of a nato member by a hostile force need a reaction. But Poland can claim that, one Free State of Prussia (Wiemar Germany) is not a member of NATO and second that the loss of so many lives (Polish people who vanished) can be considers a act of war against Prussia, but that is just what i think. Well, you need the smoking gun - in case of 1930-prussia, that is much more as the eastern areas, they have no saying in it. To invade/attack them mean also to attack the rest of germany. Period. The germans in the south would see it this way. So if country A (say Poland) attacks germany (that they would do) they will help the helpless prussians, not in the sense of "lets invade em" but in the sense of Nato-defence doctrine. If for example other western nato partners would not support the germans, that would end the NATO, at last for germany (and in future the new members). The fallout of such events is allways the problem. The idea that "prussia" acted military by pure existence, removing 40 million germans in germany, too - could be used to "motivate" very simple minds, but thats it. There is an UN, if poland declare war, germany and in this also the NATO is bound to defend itself. Esp. because IF poland attacks, the question about the millions of germans living there is to be explained. The same expulsion as 1945 would not be tolerated, not in central europe and not in 1990. I tried to explain why this wouldn´t happen, otherwise to 1950 or maybe 1960 That these people partly commited incredible crimes in our timeline doesn´t matter, because they did nothing in theirs and they got out of that before they would be guilty. Thats the problem with this time jump. It means that there exist the same people twice.. our TL (as we know OTL) and - by moving them out of their TL of 1930 - the other one. As i described, 6 years old Hans Mustermann, born in 1924 is part of some really nasty warcrime in 1944 and get hunged for it. Now he is 6 years - you can´t put him into jail for - well beeing a child. And even some 1904 born man, who would gas 200.000 people in 1943 in treblinka is only 26 years old and had done nothing - in his broken timeline. I think some people need to rething the main problem of such "moves" - to get into jail you need to be guilty. But these people aren´t guilty for things they had done in our TL in 1940-45. Again, no judge would punish a person for fictional crimes - these "time-cop-idea" doesn´t work in systems in that you have a free judge. In dictatorships - say communist cuba - you don´t need them. Here you not only have 3-4 villians, but basically hundredthousends of people who did nada in the moment (they come from 1930), but had activly supported and commited crimes beyond imagination. From a legal point that doesn´t work and - as i mentioned earlier - no "Nürnberg reloaded" could happen. The whole OTL-scenario wasn´t legal, but a show. Why? Because people got punished in a way of "backwarded laws". Basically this: We measure the speed on a street. Say, the speed limit is 80km/h. People drive 80. Now you install a measurement (say 30km/h) and then people get 3 years later a punishment for their "crime" that they drive legal 78km/h 4 years ago. That was nuernberg- more or less. Because the people they hung were so nasty and honestly the most deserved to hang nobody really cared. Here you would try to repeat this (criminal) acting with zero base - the people who get punished not even had done what you claim they did. They could explain that they hadn´t done anything. Because 1920-30 no gas chambers, no death squads existed. Worse, some real criminals, say Fritz Sauckel or the Comandant of Ausschwitz got hung OTL. Here they live. But - if you try to bring em to a judge in the USA - they cannot be punished twice for the same crimes. So even if you find one judge who would do it (i doubt you find 1 judge in the world (outside of dicatorships)) you cannot bring em into jail So, as bad as it is - if you try to bring Hitler into jail for his human mankind-crimes, he would win.. easily. On the other hand, the chance that these creatures would have a happy live - with all the informations about their crimes floating in the world is nil.
|
|