lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 29, 2018 17:55:47 GMT
Wow, 855,000 soldiers, that is a lot, i guess the United states forms the bulk of that. Nope. As I said, the US doesn't want to get involved, at least not until the threat of war is absolutely unbearable. Many within the government certainly want to, but Nixon already has a lot of trouble to begin with. Most of those troops are British irregulars, trained militias or reserves, plus overseas troops, reinforcements from Thailand, Malaysia, Australia and South Korea and an expeditionary territorial legion. Still 855,000 is a lot, even with all those reinforcements.
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on May 30, 2018 12:28:56 GMT
Nope. As I said, the US doesn't want to get involved, at least not until the threat of war is absolutely unbearable. Many within the government certainly want to, but Nixon already has a lot of trouble to begin with. Most of those troops are British irregulars, trained militias or reserves, plus overseas troops, reinforcements from Thailand, Malaysia, Australia and South Korea and an expeditionary territorial legion. Still 855,000 is a lot, even with all those reinforcements. Well, even in OTL, the British and other Allies had terrific numbers across Asia. Plus, I wanted to give them some equal ground against the Chinese.
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on May 30, 2018 12:53:05 GMT
Yangon Agreement, 1974
The leaders of Burma, CPV and China gather once more, this time on the Burmese city of Yangon, May 1st 1974. The CPV, whose envoy was Giap himself, wanted to expand westwards, and bring several areas in Southeast Asia - mainly the Spratly Islands and possibly Sarawak - under a united Vietnamese Federation. China was mostly in favor of Giap, since a win for the Vietnamese was a win for China, given the protectorate status under which Giap was constrained. However, Burma was dissatisfied. He though he was being left out from the lot. General Ne Win - leader of Burma - was afraid that, after the war, Burma would be either annexed into China or emerge dangerously unfavored, or at least, the Burmese wouldn't be rewarded like Vietnam and China. The General demanded that China should give up all land west of the Mekong River all the way to Burma's northernmost point, from which place a straight line will be drawn up to the river to create a western border. This displeased the Chinese, who needed Burma's strategic location yet were unwilling to sacrifice territory. This ploy was made by General Win in order to not only create a buffer zone but also to force some kind of benefit regardless of the war's final agreement. The CPV strongly opposed Burma's stance and influenced China to not to fall into Win's "trickeries". China refused to make concessions, although promised to pay Burma over 500m dollars to cover mobilization costs. Win instantly agreed. After many days of deliberation, a series of accords were created, giving birth to the Yangon Agreement. It stated the following:
a) A hardline Communist regime will be installed in neutral Cambodia and Laos, following an invasion of said countries. b) Cambodia will be placed under the CPV's zone of influence, while Laos will be divided between China and Burma. Burma will receive all areas in the south of Laos (giving Burma a border with the CPV) while China will obtain the north. China agrees to create northern Laos a protectorate Communist regime. c) Thailand will be transformed into a Communist puppet regime under the trilateral influence of the Hanoi Block. d) Malaysia will be transformed into a Communist puppet regime under the trilateral influence of the Hanoi Block. e) The Hanoi Block agrees to collectively leave 500,000 troops in continental Southeast Asia. f) Under any circumstances, the US will not be provoked into war at all costs. g) The conflict must be swift and end with an agreeable peace treaty that leaves Britain content. She must be immediately pushed out of the continent, capturing prisoners rather than massacring them, and forcing massive evacuations. h) Hong Kong will be immediately captured.
The Hanoi Block agrees on a combined strategy: The Burmese and Chinese fleets will blockade the Gulf of Thailand, cutting off Thailand's supplies. If Britain does not give up immediately, the Vietnamese will launch a sudden invasion of Cambodia, while Laos is blockaded and a land invasion of Bangkok from southern Burma will be executed. All military efforts will be supplied by China. As Britain's forces are tied south, China will invade Hong Kong. Once Britain is expelled, they will push for a peace treaty that Britain will find impossible to refuse. As the meeting was over, Burma became increasingly wary. Such an operation will soak the main bulk of Burma's military, leaving her northern border exposed. She feared China would break her promise, or that everything already was a conspiracy ploy to trick Burma into a dummy war to leave their guard down. As Win put it: "Since when did the Cat help the Mouse, if not to eat it later on?"
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 30, 2018 14:50:54 GMT
Well initial thoughts. a) If you get those numbers then its probably a win for Britain and its allies. Their likely going to have greater troops and equipment quality in terms of training and motivation, plus a more organised command. Also at this stage Britain along with its allies are likely to have a stronger naval strength as China was still pretty primitive at this point and I doubt that either Burma or Vietnam would have much naval strength. Although this might depend on the situation in Europe but then, with Mao having split with the Soviets, the latter might be quite happy to not oppose Britain sending a lot of forces into SE Asia to oppose Mao there. Also I could see a lot of unrest in both Burma, given all the minorities suffering oppression and Vietnam given their traditional hostility towards being under Chinese control. Not saying either of those countries would be liberated from communist control as that might be beyond both the alliances power and their political will, although I could see a change of government occurring in Burma given how difficult to would be for China to support it.
b) Britain would lose Hong Kong if Mao decides on war, which seems pretty certain. There's no way it could be defended, other than just possibly threatening nuclear retaliation, which I doubt the British government would do or Mao would believe. However I think in this scenario you would also see Taiwan in the alliance.
Which would raise the interesting point. Mao and Nixon have become best buddies but has Mao obtained the security council seat for the communist yet or is it still with the Nationalists? If the latter they could keep it, at least for a while longer as Britain could veto such a change and would have motivation to do so and also such aggressive behaviour would be likely to upset at least some other nations in the UN.
There is the danger in a longer war that the communists could wear down the allies as Britain, the keystone of the alliance, doesn't have the political will and resources it had in previous conflicts. However given that you can expect widespread support in both Thailand and Malaysia against communist attacks there is the potential for the communists to pay a huge butchers bill that possibly even they can't afford.
c) I am however doubtful that the allies could raise such numbers, unless the majority would be coming from Thailand and Malaysia as the powers under the greatest threat.
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on May 30, 2018 23:20:41 GMT
Well initial thoughts. a) If you get those numbers then its probably a win for Britain and its allies. Their likely going to have greater troops and equipment quality in terms of training and motivation, plus a more organised command. Also at this stage Britain along with its allies are likely to have a stronger naval strength as China was still pretty primitive at this point and I doubt that either Burma or Vietnam would have much naval strength. Although this might depend on the situation in Europe but then, with Mao having split with the Soviets, the latter might be quite happy to not oppose Britain sending a lot of forces into SE Asia to oppose Mao there. Also I could see a lot of unrest in both Burma, given all the minorities suffering oppression and Vietnam given their traditional hostility towards being under Chinese control. Not saying either of those countries would be liberated from communist control as that might be beyond both the alliances power and their political will, although I could see a change of government occurring in Burma given how difficult to would be for China to support it.
b) Britain would lose Hong Kong if Mao decides on war, which seems pretty certain. There's no way it could be defended, other than just possibly threatening nuclear retaliation, which I doubt the British government would do or Mao would believe. However I think in this scenario you would also see Taiwan in the alliance.
Which would raise the interesting point. Mao and Nixon have become best buddies but has Mao obtained the security council seat for the communist yet or is it still with the Nationalists? If the latter they could keep it, at least for a while longer as Britain could veto such a change and would have motivation to do so and also such aggressive behaviour would be likely to upset at least some other nations in the UN.
There is the danger in a longer war that the communists could wear down the allies as Britain, the keystone of the alliance, doesn't have the political will and resources it had in previous conflicts. However given that you can expect widespread support in both Thailand and Malaysia against communist attacks there is the potential for the communists to pay a huge butchers bill that possibly even they can't afford.
c) I am however doubtful that the allies could raise such numbers, unless the majority would be coming from Thailand and Malaysia as the powers under the greatest threat.
Allow me to answer your doubts. Not much has changed with the Sino-American relation. Nixon sees an untapped treasure trove in mainland China and is certainly handing security council status to Mao. Taiwan will be pissed, and as such will be declaring neutrality, believing itself to be short of allies, especially after British companies in America see interest in the new opening of relations. Britain, with Nixon's political and moral backing, has decided to ship vast amounts of soldiers into Thailand and Malaysia mostly as a facade. They want to make the Chinese believe they have a strong presence in the region, sort of like a: "You mess with me, and you're gonna suffer. Look how many troops I've got!" Obviously, the British propaganda machine has grossly exaggerated the UK's strength. Most natively-British troops are either untrained reserves or part of volunteer corps. The main infantry role was taken by Thai and Malaysian conscripts and personnel. You have hundreds of thousands of poorly-armed, untrained, unmotivated farmers forced to fight in some random war they heard about just days prior, quite literally doing the rich white man's bidding. Add in the tiny fraction of outside troops from S. Korea, Australia and such, which are able to provide a high amount of troops, since the OTL Vietnam War didn't happen. That being said, the British are in no position whatsoever to wage real war, and will soon be overpowered by the Hanoi Block if hostilities erupted. As soon as Thailand comes is overrun and Hong Kong is lost, the Britain will sue for peace, something the Chinese also want. It would end up being a real embarrassment for the UK, possibly even causing PM Harold Wilson's resignation (although highly unlikely, given he had become PM just months earlier). Have in consideration that Wilson was highly moderate on socialism and would've avoided true war at all costs. So anyways, for the main question, that's the deal: most soldiers weren't proper British troops but rather Thai and Malaysian peasants. The UK seeks to avoid war at all costs, while the Hanoi Block seeks a swift and limited offensive that leaves high gains.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 31, 2018 11:35:22 GMT
Well initial thoughts. a) If you get those numbers then its probably a win for Britain and its allies. Their likely going to have greater troops and equipment quality in terms of training and motivation, plus a more organised command. Also at this stage Britain along with its allies are likely to have a stronger naval strength as China was still pretty primitive at this point and I doubt that either Burma or Vietnam would have much naval strength. Although this might depend on the situation in Europe but then, with Mao having split with the Soviets, the latter might be quite happy to not oppose Britain sending a lot of forces into SE Asia to oppose Mao there. Also I could see a lot of unrest in both Burma, given all the minorities suffering oppression and Vietnam given their traditional hostility towards being under Chinese control. Not saying either of those countries would be liberated from communist control as that might be beyond both the alliances power and their political will, although I could see a change of government occurring in Burma given how difficult to would be for China to support it.
b) Britain would lose Hong Kong if Mao decides on war, which seems pretty certain. There's no way it could be defended, other than just possibly threatening nuclear retaliation, which I doubt the British government would do or Mao would believe. However I think in this scenario you would also see Taiwan in the alliance.
Which would raise the interesting point. Mao and Nixon have become best buddies but has Mao obtained the security council seat for the communist yet or is it still with the Nationalists? If the latter they could keep it, at least for a while longer as Britain could veto such a change and would have motivation to do so and also such aggressive behaviour would be likely to upset at least some other nations in the UN.
There is the danger in a longer war that the communists could wear down the allies as Britain, the keystone of the alliance, doesn't have the political will and resources it had in previous conflicts. However given that you can expect widespread support in both Thailand and Malaysia against communist attacks there is the potential for the communists to pay a huge butchers bill that possibly even they can't afford.
c) I am however doubtful that the allies could raise such numbers, unless the majority would be coming from Thailand and Malaysia as the powers under the greatest threat.
Allow me to answer your doubts. Not much has changed with the Sino-American relation. Nixon sees an untapped treasure trove in mainland China and is certainly handing security council status to Mao. Taiwan will be pissed, and as such will be declaring neutrality, believing itself to be short of allies, especially after British companies in America see interest in the new opening of relations. Britain, with Nixon's political and moral backing, has decided to ship vast amounts of soldiers into Thailand and Malaysia mostly as a facade. They want to make the Chinese believe they have a strong presence in the region, sort of like a: "You mess with me, and you're gonna suffer. Look how many troops I've got!" Obviously, the British propaganda machine has grossly exaggerated the UK's strength. Most natively-British troops are either untrained reserves or part of volunteer corps. The main infantry role was taken by Thai and Malaysian conscripts and personnel. You have hundreds of thousands of poorly-armed, untrained, unmotivated farmers forced to fight in some random war they heard about just days prior, quite literally doing the rich white man's bidding. Add in the tiny fraction of outside troops from S. Korea, Australia and such, which are able to provide a high amount of troops, since the OTL Vietnam War didn't happen. That being said, the British are in no position whatsoever to wage real war, and will soon be overpowered by the Hanoi Block if hostilities erupted. As soon as Thailand comes is overrun and Hong Kong is lost, the Britain will sue for peace, something the Chinese also want. It would end up being a real embarrassment for the UK, possibly even causing PM Harold Wilson's resignation (although highly unlikely, given he had become PM just months earlier). Have in consideration that Wilson was highly moderate on socialism and would've avoided true war at all costs. So anyways, for the main question, that's the deal: most soldiers weren't proper British troops but rather Thai and Malaysian peasants. The UK seeks to avoid war at all costs, while the Hanoi Block seeks a swift and limited offensive that leaves high gains.
Ouch that sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. Going to leave SE Asia in an even bigger mess than OTL. Also possibly going to give Mao's regime some undeserved prestige that could be very damaging to China once he dies, which is probably only a couple of years, if it means hard-liners replace him.
I think the 'Cultural revolution' has ended here so China is still in quite a mess but not quite the basket case it was in the previous years.
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on May 31, 2018 11:54:41 GMT
Allow me to answer your doubts. Not much has changed with the Sino-American relation. Nixon sees an untapped treasure trove in mainland China and is certainly handing security council status to Mao. Taiwan will be pissed, and as such will be declaring neutrality, believing itself to be short of allies, especially after British companies in America see interest in the new opening of relations. Britain, with Nixon's political and moral backing, has decided to ship vast amounts of soldiers into Thailand and Malaysia mostly as a facade. They want to make the Chinese believe they have a strong presence in the region, sort of like a: "You mess with me, and you're gonna suffer. Look how many troops I've got!" Obviously, the British propaganda machine has grossly exaggerated the UK's strength. Most natively-British troops are either untrained reserves or part of volunteer corps. The main infantry role was taken by Thai and Malaysian conscripts and personnel. You have hundreds of thousands of poorly-armed, untrained, unmotivated farmers forced to fight in some random war they heard about just days prior, quite literally doing the rich white man's bidding. Add in the tiny fraction of outside troops from S. Korea, Australia and such, which are able to provide a high amount of troops, since the OTL Vietnam War didn't happen. That being said, the British are in no position whatsoever to wage real war, and will soon be overpowered by the Hanoi Block if hostilities erupted. As soon as Thailand comes is overrun and Hong Kong is lost, the Britain will sue for peace, something the Chinese also want. It would end up being a real embarrassment for the UK, possibly even causing PM Harold Wilson's resignation (although highly unlikely, given he had become PM just months earlier). Have in consideration that Wilson was highly moderate on socialism and would've avoided true war at all costs. So anyways, for the main question, that's the deal: most soldiers weren't proper British troops but rather Thai and Malaysian peasants. The UK seeks to avoid war at all costs, while the Hanoi Block seeks a swift and limited offensive that leaves high gains.
Ouch that sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. Going to leave SE Asia in an even bigger mess than OTL. Also possibly going to give Mao's regime some undeserved prestige that could be very damaging to China once he dies, which is probably only a couple of years, if it means hard-liners replace him.
I think the 'Cultural revolution' has ended here so China is still in quite a mess but not quite the basket case it was in the previous years.
That's the thing! If China sweeps across SE Asia, it means some really wacky things will end up happening. The way I see it, it leaves room for a lot of revolts, uprisings and revolutions.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 31, 2018 14:10:53 GMT
Ouch that sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. Going to leave SE Asia in an even bigger mess than OTL. Also possibly going to give Mao's regime some undeserved prestige that could be very damaging to China once he dies, which is probably only a couple of years, if it means hard-liners replace him.
I think the 'Cultural revolution' has ended here so China is still in quite a mess but not quite the basket case it was in the previous years.
That's the thing! If China sweeps across SE Asia, it means some really wacky things will end up happening. The way I see it, it leaves room for a lot of revolts, uprisings and revolutions.
I can see them taking Thailand perhaps if the allied forces are that poorly organised but Malaya and even the southern part of Thailand along the Kra peninsula is likely to be very difficult because of the geography.
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on May 31, 2018 21:13:22 GMT
That's the thing! If China sweeps across SE Asia, it means some really wacky things will end up happening. The way I see it, it leaves room for a lot of revolts, uprisings and revolutions.
I can see them taking Thailand perhaps if the allied forces are that poorly organised but Malaya and even the southern part of Thailand along the Kra peninsula is likely to be very difficult because of the geography.
The Malayan Peninsula will serve as an impregnable stronghold for the Allies. Indeed, the Malayan Peninsula will be impossible to be captured by the Chinese, and it would be incredibly difficult to fully occupy. The region will harbor the fiercest resistance against any kind of Communist regime, if not a full-out secessionist movement.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 31, 2018 21:20:02 GMT
I can see them taking Thailand perhaps if the allied forces are that poorly organised but Malaya and even the southern part of Thailand along the Kra peninsula is likely to be very difficult because of the geography.
The Malayan Peninsula will serve as an impregnable stronghold for the Allies. Indeed, the Malayan Peninsula will be impossible to be captured by the Chinese, and it would be incredibly difficult to fully occupy. The region will harbor the fiercest resistance against any kind of Communist regime, if not a full-out secessionist movement. You mean a second Malayan Emergency
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Jun 1, 2018 1:45:31 GMT
The Malayan Peninsula will serve as an impregnable stronghold for the Allies. Indeed, the Malayan Peninsula will be impossible to be captured by the Chinese, and it would be incredibly difficult to fully occupy. The region will harbor the fiercest resistance against any kind of Communist regime, if not a full-out secessionist movement. You mean a second Malayan EmergencyYeah, but reversed. The Communists would find it impossible to properly occupy the region, giving rise to a free Malayan republic. The Allies would recognize this revolutionary state as the true government of Malaya and give aid to the insurgent movement. It is possible that, with the gradual degradation of Communism, this revolutionary entity may take over as the sovereign state of Malaysia, although most likely the Peninsular portion of it.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 1, 2018 4:16:13 GMT
We also do not have to forget ore ask this question, what if North Vietnam and South Vietnam just simply remained independent countries like North and south Korea today.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 1, 2018 9:52:28 GMT
We also do not have to forget ore ask this question, what if North Vietnam and South Vietnam just simply remained independent countries like North and south Korea today.
Unlikely, I fear. S Vietnam, while at times it had widespread popular support never really got stable and efficient government. Plus the dictatorship in the north was strongly supported by both China and Russia and after the experience of Korea the US was unwilling to fight on indefinitely. Also while S Korea was a peninsula, hence with US and allies superiority at sea was relatively easy to defend S Vietnam had a long jungle border with Cambodia and Laos which was easy for the north to use to threaten the south. Plus in Korea it was very much a traditional war whereas in Vietnam the north used a lot of terrorism and guerilla warfare to undermine the government in the south.
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Jun 1, 2018 17:33:55 GMT
We also do not have to forget ore ask this question, what if North Vietnam and South Vietnam just simply remained independent countries like North and south Korea today.
Unlikely, I fear. S Vietnam, while at times it had widespread popular support never really got stable and efficient government. Plus the dictatorship in the north was strongly supported by both China and Russia and after the experience of Korea the US was unwilling to fight on indefinitely. Also while S Korea was a peninsula, hence with US and allies superiority at sea was relatively easy to defend S Vietnam had a long jungle border with Cambodia and Laos which was easy for the north to use to threaten the south. Plus in Korea it was very much a traditional war whereas in Vietnam the north used a lot of terrorism and guerilla warfare to undermine the government in the south.
Yeah, that's not really a viable option. It's kinda sad, but probably meant to be.
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Jun 5, 2018 1:27:34 GMT
Annexation War: the Andaman Incident
August 1st, 1974. Vietnamese frigate Cay Do sets out the coast of western Burma as part of a joint war exercise with the Burmese navy. The Cay Do is part of a small patrol detachment, tasked with conducting recon and surveillance operations in Burma's western coast. In the darkness of dawn, the Cay Do and its team carry out their tasks. The waters are calm, yet the sky looms gloomy. As the hours pass, the clouds thicken and a powerful darkness falls upon the small team. The group commander decides to continue anyways. The vessels conduct a series of maneuvers, but slowly visibility becomes poor. Soon, the captain receives a message: the exercise has been canceled due to the stormy weather. Return to port immediately. The captain relays the message across all vessels... except the Cay Do. The thunderstorm interfered with communications, meaning the Cay Do never received the orders to return to port. Believing the exercise was still going, the Cay Do finished the maneuvers, unaware of anything that had happened. Soon, however, the Cay Do realized something was up. They attempted to communicate with the team captain, yet the storm made long-distance intercoms impossible. Wandering aimlessly for hours, the Cay Do trekked the Andaman Sea westwards. By 6:00 AM, they were within Indian territorial waters, in the Andaman archipelago.
The Cay Do was detected by radar at Port Blair, capital city of the Andaman Islands. Indian authorities immediately mobilized for emergency, believing this to be a full-out assault. The Indian government had declared neutrality during the Annexation Crisis, despite close relations with both sides. At 6:12, an Indian patrol boat radioed the British command center in Bangkok, explaining their current situation and requesting immediate help. The British, desperate, sent a reserve destroyer to Port Blair from the south Indic Ocean: the HMS Pembroke. The Cay Do - believing to be somewhere near the southern Burmese city of Pa-an - attempted radio communication, which was retrieved by the Pembroke. The British destroyer, thinking the Cay Do was a larger ship, ordered the Burmese vessel to back down or face immediate retaliation. The Cay Do replied to the Pembroke that they should back down, for they were trespassing Burmese territorial waters. The confusion went on until around 7:00. The Pembroke ultimately decided it was a distraction from a large attack into the Andaman Islands. As the day progressed, the Cay Do was able to establish a weak communication with a Chinese destroyer, the Li Xiao, at around 7:50 AM. The Cay Do conveyed the following message:
"Under attack by hostile vessel. Come to location immediately. Engage if provoked."
The Li Xiao came for the Vietnamese ship's aid. Now detecting two vessels, the Pembroke was convinced this was an act of war. Meanwhile, the Li Xiao fired a warning shot to the Pembroke's general direction. The small, inoffensive explosive detonated right under the Pembroke's hull, damaging a turbine and rendering on-board navigation systems useless. The Pembroke was in a state of absolute panic. Believing they were under attack, the captain ordered immediate retaliation.
At 8:02 AM, three torpedoes from the HMS Pembroke ruptured into the Cay Do, decimating the small patrol boat in a massive explosion. All 49 crew were instantly killed. Alarmed, the Li Xiao fled the scene, sending a single message to naval command in Yangon:
"Vietnamese vessel sunk by British ship. No survivors. Act of unprovoked aggression. We must prepare for war immediately."
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