dayton3
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Post by dayton3 on May 13, 2018 1:57:42 GMT
The U.S. plan (though they tried to underplay this possibility to President Carter) was to conduct heavy airstrikes into the heart of Tehran if necessary to extricate the hostage rescue team and hostages.
Privately, the planners of the mission were estimating at least a dozen hostages killed several dozen of the rescue team killed and HUNDREDS of Iranians in Tehran killed.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 13, 2018 10:28:44 GMT
Privately, the planners of the mission were estimating at least a dozen hostages killed several dozen of the rescue team killed and HUNDREDS of Iranians in Tehran killed. That i do not consider a major success if that would have happened. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 13, 2018 10:59:14 GMT
The U.S. plan (though they tried to underplay this possibility to President Carter) was to conduct heavy airstrikes into the heart of Tehran if necessary to extricate the hostage rescue team and hostages. Privately, the planners of the mission were estimating at least a dozen hostages killed several dozen of the rescue team killed and HUNDREDS of Iranians in Tehran killed. Damn I never realised that. Remember playing a mini game based on the idea which basically involved trying to sneak in aided by local Iranian supporters and doing everything as subtly as possible. If they were going about it that heavy handed it would prompt mixed reactions in the US and fury in Iran. |
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James G
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Post by James G on May 15, 2018 22:12:24 GMT
Privately, the planners of the mission were estimating at least a dozen hostages killed several dozen of the rescue team killed and HUNDREDS of Iranians in Tehran killed. That i do not consider a major success if that would have happened. From the point of view of those planning the mission, the hostages and the lives of the US service personnel involved were the priority. They would have tried to minimise civilian casualties because deliberate murder wouldn't have been acceptable as part of the plan, but to ensure the safety of those they were rescuing, they would have blasted Tehran to bits if needed... the buildings would have been targeted, full of civilians or not. That is how these things go. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2018 15:26:13 GMT
Credible Sport was a catastrophe. The presence of three AC-130Hs supporting Eagle Claw suggests heavy casualties would ensue, If US forces got to Manzariyeh AB and the embassy. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 16, 2018 15:29:25 GMT
Credible Sport was a catastrophe. The presence of three AC-130Hs supporting Eagle Claw suggests heavy casualties would ensue, If US forces got to Manzariyeh AB and the embassy. That would also be the case with Eagle Claw, as i have said before, it might turn into a much early version of Black Hawk Down and maybe even with more deaths. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Jun 3, 2018 19:31:13 GMT
Something I was reading today focused upon this initial WI of mine.
If Eagle Claw had worked, or not worked even in the form of a bloodbath in Tehran, the Iranians would have taken more hostages afterwards. There were American journalists in Iran, lots of them. SecState Vance believed this would happen and he resigned over the whole thing. National Security Adviser Brzezinski had the gee-whiz idea of kidnapping plenty of Iranians on the way out as leverage.
Talk about hostage crisis #2!
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 4, 2018 15:39:17 GMT
Something I was reading today focused upon this initial WI of mine. If Eagle Claw had worked, or not worked even in the form of a bloodbath in Tehran, the Iranians would have taken more hostages afterwards. There were American journalists in Iran, lots of them. SecState Vance believed this would happen and he resigned over the whole thing. National Security Adviser Brzezinski had the gee-whiz idea of kidnapping plenty of Iranians on the way out as leverage. Talk about hostage crisis #2!
Now there's a brilliant idea. What could possibly go wrong!! Under those circumstances I can see Reagan being a one-term President. Even teflon has its limits.
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James G
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Post by James G on Jun 4, 2018 19:22:03 GMT
Something I was reading today focused upon this initial WI of mine. If Eagle Claw had worked, or not worked even in the form of a bloodbath in Tehran, the Iranians would have taken more hostages afterwards. There were American journalists in Iran, lots of them. SecState Vance believed this would happen and he resigned over the whole thing. National Security Adviser Brzezinski had the gee-whiz idea of kidnapping plenty of Iranians on the way out as leverage. Talk about hostage crisis #2!
Now there's a brilliant idea. What could possibly go wrong!! Under those circumstances I can see Reagan being a one-term President. Even teflon has its limits.
This was under Carter, not Reagan. Though this has given me an idea. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 4, 2018 19:30:21 GMT
Something I was reading today focused upon this initial WI of mine. If Eagle Claw had worked, or not worked even in the form of a bloodbath in Tehran, the Iranians would have taken more hostages afterwards. There were American journalists in Iran, lots of them. SecState Vance believed this would happen and he resigned over the whole thing. National Security Adviser Brzezinski had the gee-whiz idea of kidnapping plenty of Iranians on the way out as leverage. Talk about hostage crisis #2! This could escalate into a bigger war. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 5, 2018 9:59:04 GMT
Now there's a brilliant idea. What could possibly go wrong!! Under those circumstances I can see Reagan being a one-term President. Even teflon has its limits.
This was under Carter, not Reagan. Though this has given me an idea.
Ah true. My error.  |
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atomo
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Post by atomo on Oct 30, 2018 13:46:03 GMT
So lets say that the Eagle Claw team makes Tehran.
Iranian military is in shambles so as stated by many above that is possible.
The overday stay at Desert two works! The CIA SAD people arrive with trucks and they make it into Tehran and the embassy.
Using stealth and CQB tactics they eliminate everyone as quiet as possible and get the people out.
The problem I see is when the RH-53Ds roar in. That many big helicopters will be heard all over the city. Thats where the whole thing starts to devolve.
If they make the choppers in the stadium and lift off (I'd suggest lots and lots of booby traps and mines scattered to slow response, maybe a few bomb drops elsewhere in the city as a diversion) then its a race. The challenger is the Iranian response.
Getting everyone to Manzariyeh Air Base for C-141 extraction should go well, I assume the RH-53Ds would be prepped for destruction at this point.
Two carrier wings worth of fighters should keep the IRAF (or whatever they could scrape together) as holes in the ground as they flee.
The biggest WTF moments to me are the over day stay at Desert Two and the entrance to the city of the helicopters. Both present A LOT of chance for discovery.
Lets say it does go down. How enraged is the Iranian populace and leadership? Could we see the Tanker Wars start much earlier?
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James G
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Post by James G on Oct 30, 2018 18:19:43 GMT
So lets say that the Eagle Claw team makes Tehran. Iranian military is in shambles so as stated by many above that is possible. The overday stay at Desert two works! The CIA SAD people arrive with trucks and they make it into Tehran and the embassy. Using stealth and CQB tactics they eliminate everyone as quiet as possible and get the people out. The problem I see is when the RH-53Ds roar in. That many big helicopters will be heard all over the city. Thats where the whole thing starts to devolve. If they make the choppers in the stadium and lift off (I'd suggest lots and lots of booby traps and mines scattered to slow response, maybe a few bomb drops elsewhere in the city as a diversion) then its a race. The challenger is the Iranian response. Getting everyone to Manzariyeh Air Base for C-141 extraction should go well, I assume the RH-53Ds would be prepped for destruction at this point. Two carrier wings worth of fighters should keep the IRAF (or whatever they could scrape together) as holes in the ground as they flee. The biggest WTF moments to me are the over day stay at Desert Two and the entrance to the city of the helicopters. Both present A LOT of chance for discovery. Lets say it does go down. How enraged is the Iranian populace and leadership? Could we see the Tanker Wars start much earlier? So much has to go right! But if it does, and they all get away, Iran will react. They will take more hostages from other Americans inside Iran. |
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mcnutt
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Post by mcnutt on Oct 30, 2018 21:16:33 GMT
If it works and they bring the hostages home, then Carter gets a wave of support. By election day there is still the recession. Reagan wins by 47% to 44% margin. Carter carries Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, Delaware, Maryland, DC, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi. Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Hawaii for 194 electoral votes. Reagan is not declared the winner at 8 pm Eastern time. He has less of a mandate. There is a Democratic Senate. Reagan can get the tax and budget cuts [assed but has to make other compromises. Liz Holtzman is elected to the Senate. She is the nation's leading women politician. In 1984, she is Walter Mondale's running mate. Since she is unmarried there is no scandal over her husband's finances. Reagan wins by a 57 % to 42 % margin Mondale carries Massachusettes, Rhode Island, DC and Minnesota.
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