lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 11, 2018 13:34:56 GMT
Well that you right, but back to topic, i think for 2018 we will not see a new country appear. Perhaps there is a chance there will. The official referendum for deciding Western Sahara's nationhood status for the UN expires this year. This is the year the UN expects to resolve the issue once and for all. If the UN adds enough pressure, and things go democratically, the process for Western Sahara's independence may finally conclude. Now, it's very likely Morocco will do its best to either boycott the referendum or find an excuse to put it off once again. Hopes are high among the international community that Western Sahara's status can finally be established. I'm actually kinda tired Western Sahara is gray on literally every single info map. A nice, we all know how well South Sudan did, will a independent Western Sahara do as well as a independent country.
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Apr 11, 2018 14:28:03 GMT
Perhaps there is a chance there will. The official referendum for deciding Western Sahara's nationhood status for the UN expires this year. This is the year the UN expects to resolve the issue once and for all. If the UN adds enough pressure, and things go democratically, the process for Western Sahara's independence may finally conclude. Now, it's very likely Morocco will do its best to either boycott the referendum or find an excuse to put it off once again. Hopes are high among the international community that Western Sahara's status can finally be established. I'm actually kinda tired Western Sahara is gray on literally every single info map. A nice, we all know how well South Sudan did, will a independent Western Sahara do as well as a independent country. That's a wild card. Morocco will never let WS go just like that. Never. There's going to be trouble if the referendum topic does go up, and it may never happen if Morocco plays dirty. The UN will have to apply intense pressure and lobby really hard if we want this to be resolved peacefully. But then, you have the paramilitary Polisario Front, who may cause an uprising if Morocco boycotts the referendum. There's going to be clashes and violence if the UN does not intervene. It's a very precarious situation, but there's a tiny chance we may see a free WS this year. The matter with South Sudan was that everybody agreed to it, and it was just a matter of declaring independence. This time, you've got a powerful, well-armed power interfering the diplomatic process, and holding on to every bit of territory they can get their hands on.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 11, 2018 14:43:10 GMT
A nice, we all know how well South Sudan did, will a independent Western Sahara do as well as a independent country. That's a wild card. Morocco will never let WS go just like that. Never. There's going to be trouble if the referendum topic does go up, and it may never happen if Morocco plays dirty. The UN will have to apply intense pressure and lobby really hard if we want this to be resolved peacefully. But then, you have the paramilitary Polisario Front, who may cause an uprising if Morocco boycotts the referendum. There's going to be clashes and violence if the UN does not intervene. It's a very precarious situation, but there's a tiny chance we may see a free WS this year. The matter with South Sudan was that everybody agreed to it, and it was just a matter of declaring independence. This time, you've got a powerful, well-armed power interfering the diplomatic process, and holding on to every bit of territory they can get their hands on. But WS has no economy, how will they support themselves. Also check this out, it might be a year old but still funny to read: The Next 10 Countries: The World's Most Likely New Nations
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Apr 11, 2018 17:03:41 GMT
That's a wild card. Morocco will never let WS go just like that. Never. There's going to be trouble if the referendum topic does go up, and it may never happen if Morocco plays dirty. The UN will have to apply intense pressure and lobby really hard if we want this to be resolved peacefully. But then, you have the paramilitary Polisario Front, who may cause an uprising if Morocco boycotts the referendum. There's going to be clashes and violence if the UN does not intervene. It's a very precarious situation, but there's a tiny chance we may see a free WS this year. The matter with South Sudan was that everybody agreed to it, and it was just a matter of declaring independence. This time, you've got a powerful, well-armed power interfering the diplomatic process, and holding on to every bit of territory they can get their hands on. But WS has no economy, how will they support themselves. Also check this out, it might be a year old but still funny to read: The Next 10 Countries: The World's Most Likely New NationsOkay, so.... we can immediately rule out any country within mainland Europe. Things are just too stable, especially with the EU, unless Scotland gets its way anytime soon with all this Brexit thing. Now, perhaps the whole Abkhazia and South Ossetia deal may just occur, seeing how unstable Georgia is. Papua New Guinea is also pretty rowdy, so who knows. I don't see chances with Somaliland, since the West is greatly involved militarily, and they may want to keep things as stable as possible in Somalia. I was thinking and... perhaps Greenland has a chance. It's so far off and so thinly populated that Denmark may just want to let it go. With enough cooperation with Canada and the US, we may see a fully-independent Greenland sometime in the future.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 11, 2018 17:08:25 GMT
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 29, 2018 21:57:58 GMT
I put my money on Western Sahara. We can see a fully-fledged Western Sahara within 20 years. Either the Polisario Front gets rowdy, or some diplomatic breakthrough is achieved. I know Morocco is stiff regarding Western Sahara, and resource deposits have been found near Western Sahara, which are unlikely to be relinquished by Morocco, but that's the territory with the most promising shot at nationhood. Didn't Morocco flood the Western Sahara with Moroccan settlers, though? If so, and if these settlers are now a majority of the total population there, it would be very hard for Western Sahara to acquire independence.
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Jun 30, 2018 4:22:17 GMT
I put my money on Western Sahara. We can see a fully-fledged Western Sahara within 20 years. Either the Polisario Front gets rowdy, or some diplomatic breakthrough is achieved. I know Morocco is stiff regarding Western Sahara, and resource deposits have been found near Western Sahara, which are unlikely to be relinquished by Morocco, but that's the territory with the most promising shot at nationhood. Didn't Morocco flood the Western Sahara with Moroccan settlers, though? If so, and if these settlers are now a majority of the total population there, it would be very hard for Western Sahara to acquire independence. -Western Sahara is one of the most sparsely populated nations in the world, with a total of around 540,000 scattered across 266,000 km2, mostly in the north and coastal regions. Morocco can move as many people as it want, yet they'll find it impossible to control the inner, less populated (and way more inhospitable) eastern and southern parts of the country. The Polisario Front non-surprisingly dominates these regions, sort of like a safe place free of Moroccan interference. Here are a few points to consider: -It would be impossible for Morocco to invade the inner Western Sahara, considering the extremely though terrain, the unbearable heat and swarm of guerrillas. Basically, the Polisario is safe where they are, and as long as they keep their dominance in eastern Western Sahara, they can last indefinitely. The mountains and deserts would be impassable by any army (and the Moroccans aren't exactly experts in warfare) and would offer great coverage for guerrillas. The supply lines would be exposed and long. The Moroccans are also foreigners to the territory, so they wouldn't be able to navigate it with the confidence the Polisario do have. Not to mention, the absolute lack of infrastructure to support an invasion. The Polisario can easily manage themselves, but the Moroccans would need to build roads, air bases, command centers and refurbishing stations along supply routes. All in all, the Moroccans wouldn't stand a chance against them in war, regardless of how many people they have. -The Polisario is allies with Algeria. The rebels' HQ is located in Tindouf, southwestern Algeria. The tight relationship between the two parties means the Polisario have an external location where to hide in case the worse happens. They can flee abroad and reorganize without the Moroccans bothering them. Plus, the fact that their HQ isn't physically within Western Sahara is an unimaginable advantage. Even if Western Sahara is ever completely overrun (practically impossible, however), the Polisario can administer a guerrilla war from Algeria. -Truly, the Polisario don't even need the majority. As long as they survive long enough and are able to build a credible state, they can rhetorically challenge Morocco's occupation and generate an uprising within the entire Western Sahara, or at least create outrage within Morocco itself. International pressure would force Morocco out, if the Polisario play their cards well. The Moroccans are extremely stubborn and won't just abandon the region. But they can't keep it if war does break out.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 30, 2018 4:32:39 GMT
Didn't Morocco flood the Western Sahara with Moroccan settlers, though? If so, and if these settlers are now a majority of the total population there, it would be very hard for Western Sahara to acquire independence. -Western Sahara is one of the most sparsely populated nations in the world, with a total of around 540,000 scattered across 266,000 km2, mostly in the north and coastal regions. Morocco can move as many people as it want, yet they'll find it impossible to control the inner, less populated (and way more inhospitable) eastern and southern parts of the country. The Polisario Front non-surprisingly dominates these regions, sort of like a safe place free of Moroccan interference. Here are a few points to consider: -It would be impossible for Morocco to invade the inner Western Sahara, considering the extremely though terrain, the unbearable heat and swarm of guerrillas. Basically, the Polisario is safe where they are, and as long as they keep their dominance in eastern Western Sahara, they can last indefinitely. The mountains and deserts would be impassable by any army (and the Moroccans aren't exactly experts in warfare) and would offer great coverage for guerrillas. The supply lines would be exposed and long. The Moroccans are also foreigners to the territory, so they wouldn't be able to navigate it with the confidence the Polisario do have. Not to mention, the absolute lack of infrastructure to support an invasion. The Polisario can easily manage themselves, but the Moroccans would need to build roads, air bases, command centers and refurbishing stations along supply routes. All in all, the Moroccans wouldn't stand a chance against them in war, regardless of how many people they have. -The Polisario is allies with Algeria. The rebels' HQ is located in Tindouf, southwestern Algeria. The tight relationship between the two parties means the Polisario have an external location where to hide in case the worse happens. They can flee abroad and reorganize without the Moroccans bothering them. Plus, the fact that their HQ isn't physically within Western Sahara is an unimaginable advantage. Even if Western Sahara is ever completely overrun (practically impossible, however), the Polisario can administer a guerrilla war from Algeria. -Truly, the Polisario don't even need the majority. As long as they survive long enough and are able to build a credible state, they can rhetorically challenge Morocco's occupation and generate an uprising within the entire Western Sahara, or at least create outrage within Morocco itself. International pressure would force Morocco out, if the Polisario play their cards well. The Moroccans are extremely stubborn and won't just abandon the region. But they can't keep it if war does break out. The Polisario can control eastern and southern Western Sahara as long as it wants, but Morocco doesn't appear to care much about these territories. Indeed, the current Western Sahara partition suits Morocco just fine. Also, if the people in the Moroccan-controlled part of Western Sahara rebel, the Moroccans can simply crush them. Indeed, the mistake would be going into the territories that the Polisario currently controls. In addition to this, why exactly is Algeria supporting the Polisario? Is it because of Algeria's own memory of colonialism?
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 30, 2018 4:33:16 GMT
Also, for what it's worth, international pressure hasn't gotten Israel out of either the West Bank or the Golan Heights yet.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 30, 2018 10:03:19 GMT
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Jun 30, 2018 15:44:12 GMT
-Western Sahara is one of the most sparsely populated nations in the world, with a total of around 540,000 scattered across 266,000 km2, mostly in the north and coastal regions. Morocco can move as many people as it want, yet they'll find it impossible to control the inner, less populated (and way more inhospitable) eastern and southern parts of the country. The Polisario Front non-surprisingly dominates these regions, sort of like a safe place free of Moroccan interference. Here are a few points to consider: -It would be impossible for Morocco to invade the inner Western Sahara, considering the extremely though terrain, the unbearable heat and swarm of guerrillas. Basically, the Polisario is safe where they are, and as long as they keep their dominance in eastern Western Sahara, they can last indefinitely. The mountains and deserts would be impassable by any army (and the Moroccans aren't exactly experts in warfare) and would offer great coverage for guerrillas. The supply lines would be exposed and long. The Moroccans are also foreigners to the territory, so they wouldn't be able to navigate it with the confidence the Polisario do have. Not to mention, the absolute lack of infrastructure to support an invasion. The Polisario can easily manage themselves, but the Moroccans would need to build roads, air bases, command centers and refurbishing stations along supply routes. All in all, the Moroccans wouldn't stand a chance against them in war, regardless of how many people they have. -The Polisario is allies with Algeria. The rebels' HQ is located in Tindouf, southwestern Algeria. The tight relationship between the two parties means the Polisario have an external location where to hide in case the worse happens. They can flee abroad and reorganize without the Moroccans bothering them. Plus, the fact that their HQ isn't physically within Western Sahara is an unimaginable advantage. Even if Western Sahara is ever completely overrun (practically impossible, however), the Polisario can administer a guerrilla war from Algeria. -Truly, the Polisario don't even need the majority. As long as they survive long enough and are able to build a credible state, they can rhetorically challenge Morocco's occupation and generate an uprising within the entire Western Sahara, or at least create outrage within Morocco itself. International pressure would force Morocco out, if the Polisario play their cards well. The Moroccans are extremely stubborn and won't just abandon the region. But they can't keep it if war does break out. The Polisario can control eastern and southern Western Sahara as long as it wants, but Morocco doesn't appear to care much about these territories. Indeed, the current Western Sahara partition suits Morocco just fine. Also, if the people in the Moroccan-controlled part of Western Sahara rebel, the Moroccans can simply crush them. Indeed, the mistake would be going into the territories that the Polisario currently controls. In addition to this, why exactly is Algeria supporting the Polisario? Is it because of Algeria's own memory of colonialism? I have no information regarding the reason behind Algeria's support to the Polisario Front, however, I believe it may have something to do with socialist-related ideologies and all that stuff.
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Jun 30, 2018 15:51:07 GMT
Okay... rule out any country located in Europe (except the Balkans). If a bunch of Moroccan rebels can't liberate a dry piece of desert, I wouldn't count with Scotland or Catalonia becoming free any time soon. Somaliland is interesting. It already rules itself, all it needs to happen is for it to completely break free from Somalia (a failed state, by the way) But the last thing we need is another independence movement in the Balkans, oh God, please no... we had enough with Kosovo already.
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kyng
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Post by kyng on Jul 1, 2018 0:15:38 GMT
How about Ambazonia, in south-west Cameroon? For anyone who doesn't know, much of Cameroon is French-speaking, while the south-west is English-speaking (and some of the urban areas are Franglais-speaking ). This English-speaking minority in the south-west consider themselves a distinct people from the French-speakers in the rest of the country, and they feel that they've been discriminated against over the years by the actions of Cameroon's government. As a result, a strong independence movement developed - and, eventually, they declared independence in 2017. Cameroon does not recognise this declaration as legitimate - and nor does any other country. I know they've already officially declared independence - but, if we're listing Somaliland, then we ought to list them too!
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 1, 2018 8:57:27 GMT
How about Ambazonia, in south-west Cameroon? For anyone who doesn't know, much of Cameroon is French-speaking, while the south-west is English-speaking (and some of the urban areas are Franglais-speaking ). This English-speaking minority in the south-west consider themselves a distinct people from the French-speakers in the rest of the country, and they feel that they've been discriminated against over the years by the actions of Cameroon's government. As a result, a strong independence movement developed - and, eventually, they declared independence in 2017. Cameroon does not recognise this declaration as legitimate - and nor does any other country. I know they've already officially declared independence - but, if we're listing Somaliland, then we ought to list them too!
Interesting. I knew there was a former British ruled part of Cameroon but didn't realise how much resentment there was there about the way they were being treated. Sounds like they have a decent case on both moral and legal terms but of course those mean little if you don't have the power - either yourself or via strong friends - to back it up.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 6, 2018 8:16:40 GMT
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