lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 2, 2018 22:42:34 GMT
Its basically difficult to see even Britain holding out once France is in hostile hands let alone anywhere on the continent in the north or centre of Europe. So you are saying that with a people revolt in France (French Civil War) and it becoming pro-soviet, the British will not be able to hold long enough against the Soviets.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 2, 2018 22:44:03 GMT
Finland probably will bend if the democracies are being overwhelmed as resistance would look pointless but its not much good for attacking Norway unless you go through Sweden, which very likely would fight. They will go down but not without causing some problems. Sweden in the end could if the mange to hold become a major British ally, wonder if they could replace the American marine brigade in Norway and hold it together with the British, Dutch and Canadians. Right try again as the server failed the 1st time I posted. Sweden could be useful in boosting the defence of Norway but only if Finland didn't fall and until the Soviets occupied Germany and Denmark. Possibly if say there was some secret agreement that meant Finland resisted and Sweden supported them heavily, along with possibly some units from Britain and France before the latter falls. However weight of numbers, plus the vulnerability of Scandinavia from the south would be very difficult to overcome. Basically once France goes down Britain is very, very difficult to defend and anywhere else in north/central Europe pretty much impossible.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 2, 2018 22:49:22 GMT
Sweden in the end could if the mange to hold become a major British ally, wonder if they could replace the American marine brigade in Norway and hold it together with the British, Dutch and Canadians. Right try again as the server failed the 1st time I posted. Sweden could be useful in boosting the defence of Norway but only if Finland didn't fall and until the Soviets occupied Germany and Denmark. Possibly if say there was some secret agreement that meant Finland resisted and Sweden supported them heavily, along with possibly some units from Britain and France before the latter falls. However weight of numbers, plus the vulnerability of Scandinavia from the south would be very difficult to overcome. Basically once France goes down Britain is very, very difficult to defend and anywhere else in north/central Europe pretty much impossible. So will the United Kingdom use their own version of the Samson option if the possibility exists that the United Kingdom will fall to the Soviet Union.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 2, 2018 23:08:25 GMT
Ok those posts did actually arrive. I got a message about server difficulties which is why I reposted then gave up when the 2nd seemed to fail?
In terms of the Samson Option it would depend on the exact situation and probably most especially who was PM and what was happening in Europe. [If there were reports of mass executions and deportations that could harden opinion a lot.
Don't know what I would have actually done in real life if somehow I had been in that position but possibly a shot across the bow, say against Murmansk, which would hit their dangerous sub fleet, presuming they had ignored earlier warnings. If the old Polaris boats were still active that might be an option as I did once read they could in extremist launch from port. Which would mean if you have one or better still two at sea you wouldn't expose your deterrent by firing such a shot. Unfortunately unlike the French at the time there are no land based missiles that could be used for such a task. After that its up to whoever's in charge in the Kremlin as to whether he values Moscow and other major cities in the USSR and the viability of the empire.
Another alternative, at a slightly lower level is if we had either inherited some tactical missiles when the US withdrew or developed some since. A strike on a major military concentration somewhere in N France or the low countries [sorry Lordroel] with a warning beforehand. The danger of this is that some lower level figure in the military in the Soviet occupation forces in western Europe might trigger a full scale nuclear exchange then.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 3, 2018 7:24:26 GMT
Another alternative, at a slightly lower level is if we had either inherited some tactical missiles when the US withdrew or developed some since. A strike on a major military concentration somewhere in N France or the low countries [sorry Lordroel] with a warning beforehand. The danger of this is that some lower level figure in the military in the Soviet occupation forces in western Europe might trigger a full scale nuclear exchange then. Thanks for the explanation steve as always. I think in this timeline whey might see the Avro Vulcan soldier along, could be use to strike Soviet targets on mainland Europe.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 3, 2018 10:39:38 GMT
Another alternative, at a slightly lower level is if we had either inherited some tactical missiles when the US withdrew or developed some since. A strike on a major military concentration somewhere in N France or the low countries [sorry Lordroel] with a warning beforehand. The danger of this is that some lower level figure in the military in the Soviet occupation forces in western Europe might trigger a full scale nuclear exchange then. Thanks for the explanation steve as always. I think in this timeline whey might see the Avro Vulcan soldier along, could be use to strike Soviet targets on mainland Europe. I don't know how survivable the old Vulcan's would be in the high density air defence level you would have in a Soviet occupied western Europe in WWIII. You really need missiles, either ballistic or possibly cruise types.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 3, 2018 10:47:46 GMT
Thanks for the explanation steve as always. I think in this timeline whey might see the Avro Vulcan soldier along, could be use to strike Soviet targets on mainland Europe. I don't know how survivable the old Vulcan's would be in the high density air defence level you would have in a Soviet occupied western Europe in WWIII. You really need missiles, either ballistic or possibly cruise types. Well the British do not have land basses missiles so that is out of the question, that leaves 4 Resolution-class submarines to be the British nuclear deterrent, and in with the Soviets controlling much of mainland Europe they most likely will be hunted by the Soviets submarine and land base ASW assets.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 3, 2018 10:50:56 GMT
Its basically difficult to see even Britain holding out once France is in hostile hands let alone anywhere on the continent in the north or centre of Europe. So you are saying that with a people revolt in France (French Civil War) and it becoming pro-soviet, the British will not be able to hold long enough against the Soviets. Sorry I missed this earlier as you were replying to a post I thought had failed to get through. Very much so. If W Germany and the low countries fall fairly quickly one way or another even if Britain has the bulk of its army and air force at home and the navy is a bit stronger and possibly boosted by surviving elements of the conquered continental allies its going to be tough. The Soviets just have such a massive superiority in numbers and the ability to attack a small densely populated country by air and missile to disrupt and destroy industry, communications and basic infrastructure means that a prolonged defence seems very difficult. It really needs the Soviets to have heavy losses or at least distractions elsewhere. And/or a markedly stronger Britain, technologically and industrially if not directly militarily. Basically the Soviets could afford to take say 3 or 4 the rate of British losses and still end up with plenty left when the RN and RAF are destroyed. Especially given that it takes much, much longer to produce a modern fighter in the 1980's than a Spitfire in 1940. If the Soviets also have French territory its a lot easier to get at the Atlantic supply lines and also launch air attacks from the west, which further stretches the air defences and also gives them more ability to raid/invade from the south as well as the east. What looks a huge task becomes markedly harder.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 3, 2018 10:52:52 GMT
So you are saying that with a people revolt in France (French Civil War) and it becoming pro-soviet, the British will not be able to hold long enough against the Soviets. Sorry I missed this earlier as you were replying to a post I thought had failed to get through. Very much so. If W Germany and the low countries fall fairly quickly one way or another even if Britain has the bulk of its army and air force at home and the navy is a bit stronger and possibly boosted by surviving elements of the conquered continental allies its going to be tough. The Soviets just have such a massive superiority in numbers and the ability to attack a small densely populated country by air and missile to disrupt and destroy industry, communications and basic infrastructure means that a prolonged defence seems very difficult. It really needs the Soviets to have heavy losses or at least distractions elsewhere. And/or a markedly stronger Britain, technologically and industrially if not directly militarily. Basically the Soviets could afford to take say 3 or 4 the rate of British losses and still end up with plenty left when the RN and RAF are destroyed. Especially given that it takes much, much longer to produce a modern fighter in the 1980's than a Spitfire in 1940. If the Soviets also have French territory its a lot easier to get at the Atlantic supply lines and also launch air attacks from the west, which further stretches the air defences and also gives them more ability to raid/invade from the south as well as the east. What looks a huge task becomes markedly harder. So we need something like a Soviet-Sino War to divert enough Soviet forces that Britain can hold out.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 3, 2018 11:34:14 GMT
Sorry I missed this earlier as you were replying to a post I thought had failed to get through. Very much so. If W Germany and the low countries fall fairly quickly one way or another even if Britain has the bulk of its army and air force at home and the navy is a bit stronger and possibly boosted by surviving elements of the conquered continental allies its going to be tough. The Soviets just have such a massive superiority in numbers and the ability to attack a small densely populated country by air and missile to disrupt and destroy industry, communications and basic infrastructure means that a prolonged defence seems very difficult. It really needs the Soviets to have heavy losses or at least distractions elsewhere. And/or a markedly stronger Britain, technologically and industrially if not directly militarily. Basically the Soviets could afford to take say 3 or 4 the rate of British losses and still end up with plenty left when the RN and RAF are destroyed. Especially given that it takes much, much longer to produce a modern fighter in the 1980's than a Spitfire in 1940. If the Soviets also have French territory its a lot easier to get at the Atlantic supply lines and also launch air attacks from the west, which further stretches the air defences and also gives them more ability to raid/invade from the south as well as the east. What looks a huge task becomes markedly harder. So we need something like a Soviet-Sino War to divert enough Soviet forces that Britain can hold out. Something like that, or possibly their also invaded the ME and got seriously bogged down there with massive guerilla resistance, to cause a hell of a lot of problems for them. A war with China would offer a match to the OTL, albeit later [1941] Nazi invasion of Russia but the problem with that is that, especially in the 1980's China wouldn't pose a great offensive threat. It relied a lot on massive people's armies for resistance to an invasion and there is relatively little in eastern Siberia and Central Asia that even if the Soviets for some reason couldn't defend the regions they could withdraw from them for a period of time while concentrating on finishing off Britain. Basically while its an interesting idea I don't know if its practical. Possibly if the US had dropped out of NATO, then when this crisis occurs they suddenly realise "Oh s**t!" and get in once most of continental Europe fell. This is something I had considered as an option at the time. Most speculations considered that NATO didn't have the strength to hold against a Warsaw Pact onslaught but rather than go nuclear the remaining allies fall back on defending Britain, possibly Norway/Scandinavia and say Italy or Spain and basically plan to build up their forces and later liberate the continent. In which case Britain and/or Spain at a minimum if France has fallen or is neutral, are the vital stepping stones for such an operation. With the US navy and air force you do have a realistic ability to put up a strong fight for Britain with a hope of winning, even if that ultimately means a cease-fire that leaves much of Europe under Soviet control. One possibility you could have is say NATO has seen serious disruption with the US leaving with a isolationist President and western Germany being neutralised. Then say in the 1984 Presidential election an internationalist President is elected and the Soviets decide they want to clean up western Europe before the US rejoins the defencive alliance. Hence say in winter 84, before the new President is in place they occupy W Germany and the low countries with relatively minimal fighting, possibly in this case France folds because of internal division and the allies are fighting in defence of Scandinavia, Britain, Spain and possibly elsewhere in the Med [Italy and Greece/Turkey]. The US enters almost immediate, or possibly waiting until the new President is inaugurated, but comes from a standing start with no forces based in Europe.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 3, 2018 11:39:25 GMT
So we need something like a Soviet-Sino War to divert enough Soviet forces that Britain can hold out. Something like that, or possibly their also invaded the ME and got seriously bogged down there with massive guerilla resistance, to cause a hell of a lot of problems for them. A war with China would offer a match to the OTL, albeit later [1941] Nazi invasion of Russia but the problem with that is that, especially in the 1980's China wouldn't pose a great offensive threat. It relied a lot on massive people's armies for resistance to an invasion and there is relatively little in eastern Siberia and Central Asia that even if the Soviets for some reason couldn't defend the regions they could withdraw from them for a period of time while concentrating on finishing off Britain. Basically while its an interesting idea I don't know if its practical. Possibly if the US had dropped out of NATO, then when this crisis occurs they suddenly realise "Oh s**t!" and get in once most of continental Europe fell. This is something I had considered as an option at the time. Most speculations considered that NATO didn't have the strength to hold against a Warsaw Pact onslaught but rather than go nuclear the remaining allies fall back on defending Britain, possibly Norway/Scandinavia and say Italy or Spain and basically plan to build up their forces and later liberate the continent. In which case Britain and/or Spain at a minimum if France has fallen or is neutral, are the vital stepping stones for such an operation. With the US navy and air force you do have a realistic ability to put up a strong fight for Britain with a hope of winning, even if that ultimately means a cease-fire that leaves much of Europe under Soviet control. One possibility you could have is say NATO has seen serious disruption with the US leaving with a isolationist President and western Germany being neutralised. Then say in the 1984 Presidential election an internationalist President is elected and the Soviets decide they want to clean up western Europe before the US rejoins the defencive alliance. Hence say in winter 84, before the new President is in place they occupy W Germany and the low countries with relatively minimal fighting, possibly in this case France folds because of internal division and the allies are fighting in defence of Scandinavia, Britain, Spain and possibly elsewhere in the Med [Italy and Greece/Turkey]. The US enters almost immediate, or possibly waiting until the new President is inaugurated, but comes from a standing start with no forces based in Europe. You mean America seeing that West Europe is falling because they where not there, the ultra-isolationism president for one reason ore another being impeached and the United States saving the day, that might work.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 3, 2018 16:16:05 GMT
Something like that, or possibly their also invaded the ME and got seriously bogged down there with massive guerilla resistance, to cause a hell of a lot of problems for them. A war with China would offer a match to the OTL, albeit later [1941] Nazi invasion of Russia but the problem with that is that, especially in the 1980's China wouldn't pose a great offensive threat. It relied a lot on massive people's armies for resistance to an invasion and there is relatively little in eastern Siberia and Central Asia that even if the Soviets for some reason couldn't defend the regions they could withdraw from them for a period of time while concentrating on finishing off Britain. Basically while its an interesting idea I don't know if its practical. Possibly if the US had dropped out of NATO, then when this crisis occurs they suddenly realise "Oh s**t!" and get in once most of continental Europe fell. This is something I had considered as an option at the time. Most speculations considered that NATO didn't have the strength to hold against a Warsaw Pact onslaught but rather than go nuclear the remaining allies fall back on defending Britain, possibly Norway/Scandinavia and say Italy or Spain and basically plan to build up their forces and later liberate the continent. In which case Britain and/or Spain at a minimum if France has fallen or is neutral, are the vital stepping stones for such an operation. With the US navy and air force you do have a realistic ability to put up a strong fight for Britain with a hope of winning, even if that ultimately means a cease-fire that leaves much of Europe under Soviet control. One possibility you could have is say NATO has seen serious disruption with the US leaving with a isolationist President and western Germany being neutralised. Then say in the 1984 Presidential election an internationalist President is elected and the Soviets decide they want to clean up western Europe before the US rejoins the defencive alliance. Hence say in winter 84, before the new President is in place they occupy W Germany and the low countries with relatively minimal fighting, possibly in this case France folds because of internal division and the allies are fighting in defence of Scandinavia, Britain, Spain and possibly elsewhere in the Med [Italy and Greece/Turkey]. The US enters almost immediate, or possibly waiting until the new President is inaugurated, but comes from a standing start with no forces based in Europe. You mean America seeing that West Europe is falling because they where not there, the ultra-isolationism president for one reason ore another being impeached and the United States saving the day, that might work. Probably not being impeached, unless there's a good reason for it, other than strategic stupidity, which has plagued many political leaders. However seeing western Europe on the verge of collapse and their prime buffer against the Soviets dominating most of the EuroAsian contient could force an urgent change in policy. Or as I suggested the Soviets feel rushed to launch the attack because a new President has been elected but has not yet taken office. That leaves US forces initially outside Europe but Britain and any other allies only have to survive a month at most before reinforcements start arriving from the US. That would give an incentive for Britain to hold on and possibly a long war with the west arming up to liberate western Europe.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 3, 2018 16:21:27 GMT
You mean America seeing that West Europe is falling because they where not there, the ultra-isolationism president for one reason ore another being impeached and the United States saving the day, that might work. Probably not being impeached, unless there's a good reason for it, other than strategic stupidity, which has plagued many political leaders. However seeing western Europe on the verge of collapse and their prime buffer against the Soviets dominating most of the EuroAsian contient could force an urgent change in policy. Or as I suggested the Soviets feel rushed to launch the attack because a new President has been elected but has not yet taken office. That leaves US forces initially outside Europe but Britain and any other allies only have to survive a month at most before reinforcements start arriving from the US. That would give an incentive for Britain to hold on and possibly a long war with the west arming up to liberate western Europe. That is a better idea than what i started this thread with.
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Post by lukedalton on Mar 3, 2018 20:25:47 GMT
Yep, once the USA turn ultra-isolationist the rest of western europe will invest a lot in nuclear weapon, probably some pan-european program to found a way out from the Non-proliferation Treaty. So, once West Germany it's lost and the Red Army it's at the French border, all the gloves are off...and frankly while i expect that Europe will be annihilated, i will not envy the Soviets. Even taking in consideration the slim possibility that the war remain conventional, by the times the Warsaw Pact it's in position to launch a red sea lion, they will be a shadow of their former selfs; basically their best troops and gears are gone as much of the rest of the warsaw pact troops and they need to control the new territory and keep an eye on their rearguard, plus there is other front to take in consideration like the middle-east, China and the possibility that the USA will intervene so Moscow can't allow a total depleting of their army.
And when the NATO collapse happen? It's important so to understand what type of gear and power will have Europe, hell there is also the possibility that the Italian and Spanish (and Swedish) nuclear program will not be closed due to the new geopolitical situation
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Post by lukedalton on Mar 3, 2018 20:33:47 GMT
Italian and French civil war seem pretty far fetched frankly, not happened just after the second world war so i doubt that can happen so much later; hell much of the mainstream communist political party by the late 70's were trying to take a lot of distance from Moscow and not even them will like face the Warsaw Pact without the american back up. That kind of political situation can happen after the soviet invasion, with a conflict between the pro-communist goverment put in place by the URSS and the Free Force retreated in other place, basically what happened in the second world war
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