lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 26, 2018 17:54:44 GMT
What if: Spanish-America War of 1873
The Virginius affair which was a diplomatic dispute that occurred from October 1873 to February 1875 between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Spain (then in control of Cuba), during the Ten Years' War. Virginius was a fast American ship hired by Cuban insurrectionists to land men and munitions in Cuba to attack the Spanish regime there. It was captured by the Spanish, who wanted to try the men onboard (many of whom were American and British citizens) as pirates and execute them. The Spanish executed 53 of the men but stopped when the British government demanded it when HMS Niobe, arrived at the city of Santiago where the executions were taking place. The commander of the ship, Sir Lambton Loraine, immediately ordered the Spanish to cease the executions. Loraine even went so far as to threaten to bombard the city if his demands were not met. Spain relented and halted the executions, sparing the surviving crew of the Virginius. One of the thing mentioned in the clip is that at the time of the affair, the Spanish ironclad Arapiles was in Brooklyn, New York for repairs that lasted from May to January 1874, Being a more modern ironclad, the United States Navy had no warship in its inventory capable of engaging it. This led to the sickening realization that if war had broken out, the Spanish warship could have begun shelling New York City with impunity, the US Navy powerless to stop it. Had Spain sent its fleet to battle, the US Navy would be fighting an enemy with a larger number of more advanced ships. The US Navy was surpassed by Spain both in quality and quantity. To make matters worse, the few warships the United States had were incapable of fighting abroad. The available ironclads were originally designed for operation in coastal areas and on rivers. They could hardly make the 100 mile journey to Cuba much less sail to Spain from across the Atlantic. But what if there was no peaceful settlement and war broke out between the United States and Spain in 1873. YouTube (The Spanish Navy in 1898 - Armada Options)Photo: the terror to the United States Navy if war had broken out in 1873, the Spanish ironclad ArapilesOrdered as a wood-built screw steam frigate was she during the building at the shipyard of Green, Blackwall, England converted into a broadside ironclad. Laid down in June 1861, launched on 17 October 1864, completed in 18865, commissioned in 1868, hulked in 1879, mentioned as being in poor condition while her hull was not strong enough for the armour in 1882 and finally broken up in 1883/1884. The armour consisted of a heavy iron-made belt with a thickness of 11,4cm/4.5” and a battery protected by 10cm/3.9”. Displacement 5.500 (design)-5.700 (completed) tons, other sources claiming 3.441 long tons/3.496 tons and as dimensions 85,37 x 15,9-16,45 x 5,2 metres or 280.11 x 52.2 (design)-54 (after being armoured) x 17’feet. The horsepower of 100 nhp supplied by the one shaft Trunk steam engine and 6 boilers was to allow a designed speed of 12 knots. One funnel and with ship-rigging. The original armament consisted of 2-10" riflled muzzle loading guns, 5-8”rifled muzzle loading guns and 10-7’9? breech loading guns. Her crew numbered 537 men. United States Navy and Spanish Navy in 1873Wikipedia article related to the Virginius Affair
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on Mar 22, 2018 3:25:36 GMT
America has been making some moves for Luzon like corporations entering the settlement, they might buy Luzon in their peace settlement, then get Formosa.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 22, 2018 3:49:48 GMT
America has been making some moves for Luzon like corporations entering the settlement, they might buy Luzon in their peace settlement, then get Formosa. Formosa is Chinese not Spanish, doubt the Americans will get that, unless there was a China-America War.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Jul 15, 2018 18:47:46 GMT
how good were the american ships in 1873. Once i read that the US navy quickly was outdated, but it is only a few years after 1865. How good were the spanish ironclads? If they are superior the US navy is helpless - because these ships were - at last on paper vastly superior to anything "normal" in that time. But i have no clue about the spanish ships.
the spaniards for sure would be pushed into problems, the USA was much stronger economically, but how many people do they want to loose for an island? Also, what would other european countries do? As far as i understood that time, lots of US politics thought quite interesting (in the sense - our gods send right to take this or that island), if this or that are british or french islands, things could be - well interesting.
i think in the 70ties of the 19th century was the last time european nations could have beaten the USA in a war. So, if the french or british navy is drawn in (on spanish side) the USA face a huge problem.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 24, 2020 11:44:55 GMT
Have updated the first post.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Apr 24, 2020 20:39:10 GMT
The U.S. would win, thanks to the internal disorders of Spain at this time, and annex Cuba but Cuba alone due to limited power projections at this time. This probably would also have the effect of engendering a Carlist Spain, as a result of the conflict.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 24, 2020 21:07:10 GMT
The U.S. would win, thanks to the internal disorders of Spain at this time, and annex Cuba but Cuba alone due to limited power projections at this time. This probably would also have the effect of engendering a Carlist Spain, as a result of the conflict. Even if the United States Navy is weaker and spread across many different squadrons.
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jjohnson
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Post by jjohnson on Apr 25, 2020 3:25:47 GMT
Overall, I think the war would last longer, but the US would likely win in the end. I think the former Confederates operating in Cuba, along with this Virginius, would give Spain a good reason to go to war with the US. But I think it would go something like this:
1873-10 - Virginius affair occurs, Spain declares war on the United States. 1873-11 - Spanish ships in Cuba sail for Florida, and attack Fort Jefferson at Dry Tortugas, and Fort De Soto at Tampa Bay, barely being forced off. The US begins a program to build up its naval fleet and modernization. Financially, with over 2 billion in debt from the Civil War, and the issue of paper money Greenbacks still floating around, the US is not in the best situation, but the war causes an earlier end to the plundering occurring due to Reconstruction. Southern states begin to be readmitted to the Union faster, and rights of former Confederates restored quicker, and federal troops begin withdrawing from the South. As the states are readmitted, former Confederate soldiers begin taking the Union uniforms and signing up for the navy beside their former enemies. 1874-01-04 - southern railroad begins being rebuilt so that troop movements can be faster, and farms and homes are rebuilt to support troops, increasing the food production capacity of the south much faster than OTL. Troop training and armaments flow south, and by April, new semi-iron-clad ships with more cannons are setting sail with steam/sail propulsion to Cuba, and from California to the Philippines and Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. Southern blacks sign up to fight, and end up fighting alongside southerners in battles in the war. 1874-04 to 08 - Several naval battles off the eastern seaboard, Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines occur. The Mariana Islands fall in their entirety to a small three ship squadron to the United States. 1874-05 - Americans land at Guantanamo and along the northern coast of Cuba. Americans fight with the Cubans to oust the Spanish, and begin fighting northward to Havana, while the Navy keeps Havana occupied, under siege, and unable to send reinforcements southward. 1874-09 - Puerto Rico's capital, San Juan, falls to the US troops. 1874-10 - the Philippines fall to the United States after four months of fighting for the capital. 1875-03 - American troops along with Cubans finally oust Spain from the island of Cuba. 1875-05 - US and Spain sign treaty ceding Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Mariana Islands, and the Philippines to the USA. Fighting together in the US causes the two sections to grow closer together, easing some of the hard feelings of the last war. Another effect is the quicker return of the south to Congress, quicker restoration of southern infrastructure and capital. Black disenfranchisement still happens, as the Republicans were using their votes to maintain power in Congress, and Democrats in the South still disenfranchise them, and continue the black codes Republicans instituted in the South while under their control. Cuba becomes a US protectorate and the other islands become territories. US troops scale back, while ex-Confederates who are less eager to live in the US move to Puerto Rico and Cuba, hoping to maintain their 'way of life' there. 1876 - Republicans still win the White House, but Democrats take the House, and start rolling back some of the laws and graft of the Grant administration, but still have to contend with a Republican Senate. 1877-07 - Spain again launches an attack, this time with refit forces, and sails to attack Havana. Landings target Cubans, and the second Spanish-American War begins. 1878-02 - Having barely demobilized, the US had a large pool of available Army, Navy, and Marines, already seasoned from the last war, and finally defeat Spain again. Cuba is made a territory and is put on the path to statehood, as is Puerto Rico, and additional movement from the continent to the islands brings them further into the US culturally. Internal US politics result in southern repeals of some black codes under Garfield's administration in exchange for more money spent in the south to repair their infrastructure. Southern blacks still can't vote, but their freedom of movement and economic opportunities improve, and the path to true civil rights comes sooner than the 1960s. 1898 - Cuba becomes a state 1904 - Puerto Rico becomes a state.
That could be a way it could go.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 25, 2020 10:26:00 GMT
jjohnson , EwellHolmes , I think your both underestimating how heavily the US was outclassed in naval terms at this point. Its not 1898 when the Spanish navy had declined considerable and the US had built a number of new ships.
The US can definitely win, at least in the Caribbean but unless the Spanish screw things up very badly in naval terms especially it would probably take at least a year to build ships that could actually contest the Caribbean with the Spanish fleet. Then probably another year for the actual conquest of Cuba and Puerto Rico. IIRC the latter was strongly loyalist in 1898 and was only taken over as part of the peace treaty so having to fight for it might be markedly more difficult.
The Philippines would be far more difficult because of its isolation from the US and the lack of any fleet base in the region. OTL in 1898 the US Asiatic fleet that won control of the waters around the Philippines was based at Hong Kong and had to leave because Britain was neutral in the conflict. Here if the same applies their probably not going to be able to go straight to the islands, assuming that the US even has ships based in the area at this point, which they might not. Plus its still ~20 years before the coup by American planters that seizes control of Hawaii so they don't have that as a stepping stone either.
The US can copy its OTL 1898 conquests if its prepared to fight for several years as it needs to build up the forces for such actions 1st and that will take some time. This could be something that its government and population decides isn't worth the effort depending on the circumstances. Also it assumes that, as I suspect would be likely, other powers try and mediate and at least one of the powers refuses such efforts.
Steve
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James G
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Post by James G on Apr 25, 2020 18:57:04 GMT
The idea of that ironclad in Brooklyn blasting away at the Brooklyn Naval Yard, Manhattan and whatever else in sight is quite something! IIRC, I read once about there being effective naval guns at The Narrows (between Staten Island and Long Island) so they might sink the ship on its way out... though that depends if they were there in 1873.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 25, 2020 21:11:43 GMT
The idea of that ironclad in Brooklyn blasting away at the Brooklyn Naval Yard, Manhattan and whatever else in sight is quite something! IIRC, I read once about there being effective naval guns at The Narrows (between Staten Island and Long Island) so they might sink the ship on its way out... though that depends if they were there in 1873. Depends on how many of here crew are onboard and if they get a head up on the declaration of war, because if not, i can see United States personal boarding the Arapiles and seizing here before the crew of the Arapiles can fire a single shot.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 26, 2020 14:29:49 GMT
The idea of that ironclad in Brooklyn blasting away at the Brooklyn Naval Yard, Manhattan and whatever else in sight is quite something! IIRC, I read once about there being effective naval guns at The Narrows (between Staten Island and Long Island) so they might sink the ship on its way out... though that depends if they were there in 1873. Depends on how many of here crew are onboard and if they get a head up on the declaration of war, because if not, i can see United States personal boarding the Arapiles and seizing here before the crew of the Arapiles can fire a single shot.
Agreed. It all depends on the circumstances. If there's any clear run up to war rather than a sudden declaration then its likely that the Arapiles will seek to leave before war starts or possibly never go to New York in the 1st case. Its possible that elements in the US, if their the instigators of the war might try and prevent it leading and that could be a trigger to the conflict.
The other obvious possible trigger is if the Spanish authorities in Cuba don't stop executing the prisoners they took with the Virginius when HMS Niobe arrives. On the other hand that is likely to mean war with the UK as well as the US and I doubt that the Spanish would be that stupid.
Steve
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 26, 2020 14:39:20 GMT
Depends on how many of here crew are onboard and if they get a head up on the declaration of war, because if not, i can see United States personal boarding the Arapiles and seizing here before the crew of the Arapiles can fire a single shot. Agreed. It all depends on the circumstances. If there's any clear run up to war rather than a sudden declaration then its likely that the Arapiles will seek to leave before war starts or possibly never go to New York in the 1st case. Its possible that elements in the US, if their the instigators of the war might try and prevent it leading and that could be a trigger to the conflict. The other obvious possible trigger is if the Spanish authorities in Cuba don't stop executing the prisoners they took with the Virginius when HMS Niobe arrives. On the other hand that is likely to mean war with the UK as well as the US and I doubt that the Spanish would be that stupid.
Steve
Would HMS Niobe be able to handle anything the Spanish have in Cuban Waters.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 26, 2020 15:23:52 GMT
Agreed. It all depends on the circumstances. If there's any clear run up to war rather than a sudden declaration then its likely that the Arapiles will seek to leave before war starts or possibly never go to New York in the 1st case. Its possible that elements in the US, if their the instigators of the war might try and prevent it leading and that could be a trigger to the conflict. The other obvious possible trigger is if the Spanish authorities in Cuba don't stop executing the prisoners they took with the Virginius when HMS Niobe arrives. On the other hand that is likely to mean war with the UK as well as the US and I doubt that the Spanish would be that stupid.
Steve
Would HMS Niobe be able to handle anything the Spanish have in Cuban Waters.
Well trying to check wiki it only has
This is a link to an article but the article doesn't exist. I don't know if that's what your pictured above as that looks more like an ironclad but its the only HMS Niobe at this point. Would suspect that she wouldn't be that powerful on her own but getting into a clash with her would mean a clash with the rest of the RN, which is a hell of a lot more powerful. As well as the British empire. Not to be taken on lightly at the time.
Steve
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 26, 2020 15:42:52 GMT
Would HMS Niobe be able to handle anything the Spanish have in Cuban Waters. Well trying to check wiki it only has
This is a link to an article but the article doesn't exist. I don't know if that's what your pictured above as that looks more like an ironclad but its the only HMS Niobe at this point. Would suspect that she wouldn't be that powerful on her own but getting into a clash with her would mean a clash with the rest of the RN, which is a hell of a lot more powerful. As well as the British empire. Not to be taken on lightly at the time. Steve
It is Amazon class sloop HMS Dryad, sister ship of Niobe.
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