James G
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Post by James G on Apr 29, 2018 13:35:00 GMT
(146)
Mid September 1984:
The news of the air clash between American and Cuban fighters shouldn’t have become as public as fast as it did. There hadn’t been an intention to cover everything up like large elements of the media were saying, but neither had there been a rush to put information out there fast. The leak occurred though and it wasn’t one which told the complete truth. The American people were informed that US Air Force fighters had been shot down over US airspace and that one of the pilots had been shot at while attached to his parachute following his ejection. How much of this was sensationalism, how much was a mistake and how much of this was a deliberate lie were open to speculation. Atop of all of that, there was the claim that the White House intended to cover everything up and not react at all. That certainly wasn’t true. The media had almost all completely turned against Kennedy now though. The big newspapers and the television broadcasters were against him and outdoing each other to take pot-shots at the president. They fought against their competitors to break the newest story, the most-damaging. The revelations about more affairs come tumbling out. Whether they were all true was up for debate. More significance was the scale of the cover-ups undertaken. Loud voices in Congress were calling for the appointment of a special prosecutor to investigate those; even louder calls were being made for impeachment. It was less than two months before the election and everyone could agree that Kennedy was finished. He couldn’t turn this all around now, no way.
Following the air battle, and the understanding that the Cubans had sprung an ambush, the National Security Council had met to decide how to react. Kennedy, Glenn, Mondale, Bentsen, Vance and Turner were all present in the room below the White House while from the Pentagon there was a telephone-conference with the Joint Chiefs. As had been the case beforehand, two plans were put to Kennedy from the Joint Chiefs when it came to responding. That was how he liked military options presented to him and the military brass at the Pentagon – as politicised as elsewhere – followed that lead. Operations Dark Horse and Dark Knight were put to him. Each contained an attack plan to hit back at Cuba. They both involved air strikes though were different in intensity; each also made sure that American bombs & missiles weren’t to go anywhere near where the Soviets had their forces in Cuba. Dark Horse was preferred by Kennedy and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. Glenn and Bentsen pushed for Dark Knight, which was the stronger of the two proposed operations. The vice president and secretary of defence wanted to flatten a trio of Cuban airbases around Havana. That Dark Horse operation was limited to attacking two sites, and with less bombs, but would mean hitting them at once; the second operation would need some more time to assemble the necessary strike options to do the worst. The vice president pushed strongly for Dark Knight and eventually won out. There would be a delay – which ended up fuelling the claims from the media of inaction – but Cuba would get its just deserts. Dark Knight was due to commence over the night of the 14th / 15th.
However, it wouldn’t happen.
In the past, when he was in trouble at home on the political front – though admittedly less than what he was going through now –, Kennedy had done something aboard or in the field of foreign affairs to offset damage. The distraction had worked each time it had been done. The KGB knew this and had helped create the circumstances for some of those distractions as well. Andropov had long wanted Kennedy to remain where he was because with him in the White House, the Soviet Union would always be safe from American attack. Ustinov didn’t see things that way and neither did new KGB Chairman Fedorchuk. Regardless of the new thinking, the precedent was there with Kennedy always willing to jump at a chance to act abroad when under attack at home.
The American president was given an opportunity do be seen doing something. Mondale was contacted by the Soviet Ambassador and told that Gromyko wanted to meet with him. The Soviet foreign minister was open to discussing many things including especially a way in which relations could be repaired between Moscow and Washington when it came to the tensions across Latin America. The Soviet Union had great influence there. It was made known, in what was regarded by Mondale as a rare confession of the truth, that the Soviets were struggling when it came to having to spend diminishing oil revenues on food imports. Meeting with the National Security Council when it assembled again, CIA Director Vance told the president that the Soviets really were hurting at home. This was the time to put the screws on them. Mondale agreed with that. Glenn and Bentsen were cautious and then soon angry when Dark Knight was called off. It was postponed, Kennedy said, but they knew that it was cancelled really.
Mondale was told to get in touch with Gromyko to set up a meeting. There was a lot of hope that so much tension could be brought to an end. Kennedy was looking forward to how he would present that to the American people and plotting – before a meeting even took place! – how to announce the success that he would say had come. It didn’t occur to him, nor anyone else at the top of the US Government, that they were being suckered. There was an art to the Soviet maskirovka, it was something special indeed.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Apr 29, 2018 15:28:40 GMT
(147)
Mid September 1984:
There was a meeting long arranged in Vienna where the West German foreign minister was due to meet with his East German and Austrian counterparts in the Austrian capital. The change in personalities when it came to the head of the West German party going to Vienna delayed but didn’t cancel that meeting; neither did a recent change too when it came to the leadership of Austria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The new foreign minister sent from Bonn arrived on the Friday night rather than the planned Thursday. Trade between the three countries and East Germany’s debts were the subject of discussion though there were also cultural matters to be touched upon too between them.
Oskar Fischer was a thoroughly experienced diplomat and politician. Circumstances beyond his country’s control – nor that of the Soviet KGB either – had put him into a meeting with the two babes in the wood whom he met with. He took advantage though, following the script when necessary through deviating (within pre-set boundaries) when needed to be as well. The two men he met with were unknown quantities in some ways yet not in others. There was also the fact that the head of the Stasi, Erich Mielke, had informed him that his West German counterpart would be ‘agreeable’ on certain things. Fischer knew from that, without being directly told, that there was a connection between the Stasi and the man from Bonn. Those matters which they were gathered to talk about were discussed between the three men and their aides: there was no need for translators with German being the native language of each man. Afterwards, Fischer asked for a meeting of just the three of them, alone. The Austrian hesitated but was won over to agree when the West German said that he would comply. It was most important that they talk, Fischer said, a matter of concern for the countries which they all represented.
There was a real risk that war was coming between East and West. The superpowers were on the edge of conflict with one another. Maybe that would begin in Asia, maybe in Latin America. Either way, that war would spread to Europe straight afterwards. East Germany and West Germany, but unaligned Austria too, would all eventually see war come to them. It didn’t have to be that way though. Their countries didn’t need to be fought over once again, especially not with nuclear weapons being used as Fischer said he feared what would happen: one only had to look at the recent revelations made in West Berlin by the duo of Bastian and Rupp when it came to such weapons. How many millions would die? How many tens of millions would die? And for what purpose? The wars of the Kaiser and Hitler hadn’t had the capability to eliminate the German people from the face of the earth: a nuclear conflict would certainly do so.
A proposal was put forth by Fischer. Should conflict erupt between the superpowers, the three nations represented here would stay out. They would declare their neutrality in that fight. Pressure would come but they should remain strong in their opposition to be drawn in. The Austrian reminded Fischer that Austria had no intention of joining any power block, even a neutral one like Fischer proposed. No, the East German said, he wasn’t proposing any public grouping of the three countries. They would just agree to not get involved. That would be the scale of their cooperation: a determination to not see the German people slaughtered in a war between the superpowers. The Austrian remained unconvinced that this would work. His government would desire to see Austria kept out of any war, naturally, but he didn’t think that this was the way to go about it: secret agreements made here would come back to haunt them all in the end. As to the West German, he had said nothing. Fischer asked him what were his thoughts on the subject? He said that he would put it to his government. The Austrian asked whether it would be something that his counterpart would be personally supportive of? Fischer asked the same thing of the West German. Yes, it would be: he would do his best. West Germany had no part in this dispute between the Soviet Union and the United States. If he could show to his government that East Germany felt the same way, and Austria was too behind German neutrality, it stood more chance of success.
Before their meeting broke off, Fischer told the two others that he was aware that there was an effort underway to cool superpower tensions. It was an odd thing to say considering he had just convinced them both that war was coming. However, Fischer said that while he hoped that would achieve the goal of making sure that war didn’t come, there was always this agreement to fall back upon. The Austrian interrupted to say that no agreement had been made but Fischer carried on with what he was saying regardless. This should be kept under wraps for now. It would do no one any good to have these talks revealed. If that superpower diplomacy failed and the worst happened, these sensible men who had met here and come to an understanding still could avert tragedy for the German people.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 29, 2018 16:03:33 GMT
Again, two updates, you spoil us to much, so i start to wonder if we ever going to see Operation Dark Knight happen with the things we know.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Apr 29, 2018 16:35:43 GMT
Again, two updates, you spoil us to much, so i start to wonder if we ever going to see Operation Dark Knight happen with the things we know. One more coming, to take us up to the very eve of war. Dark Knight: no. Red Star: coming very soon. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 29, 2018 17:54:51 GMT
Again, two updates, you spoil us to much, so i start to wonder if we ever going to see Operation Dark Knight happen with the things we know. One more coming, to take us up to the very eve of war. Dark Knight: no. Red Star: coming very soon. The suspends, it is killing me. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Apr 29, 2018 18:23:42 GMT
One more coming, to take us up to the very eve of war. Dark Knight: no. Red Star: coming very soon. The suspends, it is killing me. Patience! |
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James G
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Post by James G on Apr 29, 2018 18:24:58 GMT
(148)
Mid September 1984:
Gromyko was due to come to Washington on the Monday, September 17th. He would meet with Mondale as well as Kennedy. Fruitful discussions were expected. At the White House and the State Department, the weekend before the Soviet foreign minister arrived saw long hours worked in preparation ahead of that visit. So much hope was placed on the outcome of the talks. Retaliation against Cuba was officially still on hold though there was a feeling that it wasn’t going to come. The media gave the president hell on this but then they had been on his back all summer now and Kennedy pushed it out of his mind as best he could while he focused on setting the parameters of what would be discussed with Gromyko. Everything else wasn’t secondary: it just wasn’t important in any way when it came to the deal anticipated to be thrashed out with the Soviets now that they had shown the willingness that they had. Mondale believed that they were fearful that Cuba and the others in Latin America were going to drag them into a war which they certainly wouldn’t want. North Korea was another issue that Mondale was going to raise with Gromyko too. That was recognised as something more difficult, yet the president told him that deals had been struck with Gromyko in the past on what had appeared to be more serious areas of contention. It could be done.
Across the United States, some very odd things happened that weekend. The National Security Adviser, Admiral Turner, took the weekend off work at the White House because he was very ill; the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff had a serious case of the flu as well yet he made it into the Pentagon only to go home soon enough. No one knew that neither man had more than the flu nor was there a serious connection made between these two seemingly unrelated events. From several of those refugee camps along the US-Mexican border, individual people left them without being noticed and headed deeper inside the country. They had never been Mexican nationals despite what they said. Local police forces across the nation responded to reports of people missing from their homes or vehicles. This occurred in rural locations nationwide and didn’t make any sense. There was no reason to connect any of those disappearances across so many states. An electrical fault at a power station in California and another at similar site in Georgia occurred leading to electricity outages where power had to be rerouted elsewhere onto overcrowded distribution lines. Scheduled ships due to arrive over the weekend at various nationwide ports, especially on the Gulf of Mexico coast and through Alaskan harbours, were delayed for various reasons with arrivals expected Monday morning. A pair of Texas Rangers vanished while carrying out their duties; a Kansas Highway Patrol officer also disappeared while out on the road. These were all little things in a big country. Other, similar occurrences happened throughout the weekend. There was no big picture to look at where they could all be put together to make sense of what was being seen. To do that would be to start with the assumption that something was afoot… and no one was thinking that.
American reconnaissance focused southwards towards Mexico, Cuba and elsewhere across Central America & the Caribbean picked up sighs of what were judged to be further defensive measures. Aircraft and ships were being moved around. The Cubans were waiting on Dark Knight to occur, the LAComs were still ready to fight to ‘defend the Mexican Revolution’ and the Soviets appeared to be moving what few forces they had in Cuba out of the way of any United States attack less the upcoming talks with Gromyko fail. On several islands in the Caribbean, small independent nation states not tied to any power block, flights were arranged for commercial aircraft come Monday with those chartered jets taking tourists and businessmen to several destinations in the United States. The travel was arranged in the proper fashion and correct documentation filled out. There was nothing odd about this, nothing at all.
Elsewhere in the world, secret mobilisation started across the Soviet Union. The initial process begun but wouldn’t fully kick-in until the weekend was over with. Selective officers from the reserve were recalled to service with millions of soldiers due for a call-up in the coming days. Soviet aircraft moved around internally across the country while there was also activity at submarine bases; many strategic missile boats slipped their moorings and dived while left behind – waiting for a satellite overfly – were inflatable mock-ups. The Soviet leadership left Moscow. Gromyko was among them though he certainly wasn’t preparing to go to Washington. In North Korea, Kim Il-sung was keen, extremely eager in fact, to get on with it all. He had to wait and he wasn’t happy. Noriega considered backing out… an idea which lasted a few minutes when he started to ponder over the consequences of that. The Castros and the Ortegas were ready, as ready as they could be anyway; Gadhafi and Saddam were ready to do as they were told though didn’t know the full picture at all. In Britain and Israel, their intelligence organisations didn’t like some of the odd worldwide events which were being seen. MI-6 and Mossad both saw strange things. What they were seeing, they didn’t know. It didn’t make sense. The maskirovka continued right up until the very end of the peace.
[End of Part III]
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Apr 29, 2018 18:29:12 GMT
Okay... so, we're ready to start tomorrow with the war.
My preamble - all 150k + words of that - covers the start of the story giving background to the war.
In the movie Red Dawn, such events are covered very briefly.
{1} Soviet Union suffers worst wheat harvest in 55 years.
Yes, achieved.
{2} Labor and food riots in Poland.
Soviet troops invade.
Yes, achieved.
{3} Cuba and Nicaragua reach trop strength goals of 500’000.
El Salvador and Honduras fall.
Yes, achieved… those numbers can be reached but include reservists.
El Salvador and Honduras were late dominos: the movie omitted Guatemala.
{4} Greens party gains control of West German parliament.
Demands withdrawal of nuclear weapons from European soil.
Yes, achieved… ‘control’ is one term for what they have.
Demands have been made.
{5} Mexico plunged into revolution.
Yes, achieved.
{6} NATO dissolves.
United States stands alone.
Not quite achieved… NATO is a strong organisation. I’ve hurt it badly though.
America is not quite alone and neither will it be.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 29, 2018 18:32:11 GMT
Okay... so, we're ready to start tomorrow with the war. My preamble - all 150k + words of that - covers the start of the story giving background to the war. In the movie Red Dawn, such events are covered very briefly. {1} Soviet Union suffers worst wheat harvest in 55 years.Yes, achieved. {2} Labor and food riots in Poland.
Soviet troops invade.
Yes, achieved. {3} Cuba and Nicaragua reach trop strength goals of 500’000.
El Salvador and Honduras fall.Yes, achieved… those numbers can be reached but include reservists. El Salvador and Honduras were late dominos: the movie omitted Guatemala. {4} Greens party gains control of West German parliament.
Demands withdrawal of nuclear weapons from European soil.Yes, achieved… ‘control’ is one term for what they have. Demands have been made. {5} Mexico plunged into revolution.Yes, achieved. {6} NATO dissolves.
United States stands alone. Not quite achieved… NATO is a strong organisation. I’ve hurt it badly though. America is not quite alone and neither will it be. Wait what, its going to happen, finally after 66 pages, 1,112 post and more than 19,490 views and which only took 3 months, yes lets get it started, Blue versus Red, Eagle versus Bear, Good versus Evil, let the big fight begin. |
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Apr 29, 2018 19:06:07 GMT
Okay... so, we're ready to start tomorrow with the war. My preamble - all 150k + words of that - covers the start of the story giving background to the war. In the movie Red Dawn, such events are covered very briefly. {1} Soviet Union suffers worst wheat harvest in 55 years.Yes, achieved. {2} Labor and food riots in Poland.
Soviet troops invade.
Yes, achieved. {3} Cuba and Nicaragua reach trop strength goals of 500’000.
El Salvador and Honduras fall.Yes, achieved… those numbers can be reached but include reservists. El Salvador and Honduras were late dominos: the movie omitted Guatemala. {4} Greens party gains control of West German parliament.
Demands withdrawal of nuclear weapons from European soil.Yes, achieved… ‘control’ is one term for what they have. Demands have been made. {5} Mexico plunged into revolution.Yes, achieved. {6} NATO dissolves.
United States stands alone. Not quite achieved… NATO is a strong organisation. I’ve hurt it badly though. America is not quite alone and neither will it be. Wait what, its going to happen, finally after 66 pages, 1,112 post and more than 19,490 views and which only took 3 months, yes lets get it started, Blue versus Red, Eagle versus Bear, Good versus Evil, let the big fight begin. That is a lot of numbers! |
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lordbyron
Warrant Officer
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Post by lordbyron on Apr 29, 2018 20:25:41 GMT
So it begins...
The West Germans' moves won't end well for them...
On a different note, the Soviets and their allies are going to find out the meaning of this (fictional) quote: "I fear we have awoken a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible resolve."
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Post by lukedalton on Apr 29, 2018 21:15:45 GMT
So it begins... The West Germans' moves won't end well for them... On a different note, the Soviets and their allies are going to find out the meaning of this (fictional) quote: "I fear we have awoken a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible resolve." The pan-germanic neutral zone will be very controversial in Europe, from one side being neutral will make everybody happy, but it will still make a lot of people uneasy due to WWII legacy; on the other side, nobody having a functioning brain cell believe for a picosecond that the east germans have enough independence to come out with this policy on their own, everyone know that Moscow it's the one that pull the string. The problem with all this, in internal politics of German, it's that once any investigation over the greens finance (and everything green related, Kelly killing included) seriously start (and without someone high enough in the gerarchy to protect them it will be serious) all will come to an end and the political scandal will be enormous. Plus party like the Green usually are their own worst enemy, they have grow too quick and too much, they don't have a proper internal infrastructure and are in general too inexperienced and this mean that in general the day to day work of the West German Republic goverment will be problematic; frankly (and it's a think that i tried too many time to explain to Matt and the other in AH.com), it's much much more probable that the entire goverment with the gree will collapse due to some pretty normal political problem or a series of minor internal squabbles that create a division in the coalition or directely in the Greens (expecially if type like Kelly lover are involved) than for some great and monumental spionistic scandal. Plus, the foreign minister even accepting to agree in broad term a such agreement will usually cause any West German prime minister to do to him like Homer Simpson with Bart as it's so way beyond his pay grade that's not even funny. In any case, being neutral will be difficult if the Soviet attack nation like Norway, Ireland and the UK aka fellow NATO and EEC nations and even neutral; too much connections to easily look on the other way and frankly it's hard for any nation to throw a treaty on the dustbin. France and Italy trying to form the core of some european-only military alliance to protect their neutrality it's OK, the candidate are more or less the rest of the continent, once the shooting start nobody will desire stand alone, even nation like Spain, Portugal and Greece will desire protection in number (and frankly Athens by now will be desperate enough for EEC money that will do anything, as unlike OTL the european monetary help has not come due to Greece not being part of EEC and Papandreou will remain the horrible economist of OTL) or even neutral like Sweden and Jugoslavia will desire having a memberships in such organization. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Apr 29, 2018 21:43:04 GMT
So it begins... The West Germans' moves won't end well for them... On a different note, the Soviets and their allies are going to find out the meaning of this (fictional) quote: "I fear we have awoken a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible resolve." When Bonn does what it does, the howls of 'betrayal' will be loud and furious. Other countries will do the same, but West Germany will really get it. The pan-germanic neutral zone will be very controversial in Europe, from one side being neutral will make everybody happy, but it will still make a lot of people uneasy due to WWII legacy; on the other side, nobody having a functioning brain cell believe for a picosecond that the east germans have enough independence to come out with this policy on their own, everyone know that Moscow it's the one that pull the string. The problem with all this, in internal politics of German, it's that once any investigation over the greens finance (and everything green related, Kelly killing included) seriously start (and without someone high enough in the gerarchy to protect them it will be serious) all will come to an end and the political scandal will be enormous. Plus party like the Green usually are their own worst enemy, they have grow too quick and too much, they don't have a proper internal infrastructure and are in general too inexperienced and this mean that in general the day to day work of the West German Republic goverment will be problematic; frankly (and it's a think that i tried too many time to explain to Matt and the other in AH.com), it's much much more probable that the entire goverment with the gree will collapse due to some pretty normal political problem or a series of minor internal squabbles that create a division in the coalition or directely in the Greens (expecially if type like Kelly lover are involved) than for some great and monumental spionistic scandal. Plus, the foreign minister even accepting to agree in broad term a such agreement will usually cause any West German prime minister to do to him like Homer Simpson with Bart as it's so way beyond his pay grade that's not even funny. In any case, being neutral will be difficult if the Soviet attack nation like Norway, Ireland and the UK aka fellow NATO and EEC nations and even neutral; too much connections to easily look on the other way and frankly it's hard for any nation to throw a treaty on the dustbin. France and Italy trying to form the core of some european-only military alliance to protect their neutrality it's OK, the candidate are more or less the rest of the continent, once the shooting start nobody will desire stand alone, even nation like Spain, Portugal and Greece will desire protection in number (and frankly Athens by now will be desperate enough for EEC money that will do anything, as unlike OTL the european monetary help has not come due to Greece not being part of EEC and Papandreou will remain the horrible economist of OTL) or even neutral like Sweden and Jugoslavia will desire having a memberships in such organization. German neutrality will not go down well. East German neutrality will be rubbish too; there is a battalion of East Germans in Mexico already waiting to go into action. The whole mess with the government set-up in West Germany - the Greens, the SPD allowing them to do what they want and Stasi penetration - will come tumbling down soon enough. By then though, the damage will be done. When countries abandon their NATO treaty commitments - it covers the US as well as Western Europe - there will be uproar. Others will, as you say, see it as the smart thing to do though. |
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Post by lukedalton on Apr 29, 2018 22:13:17 GMT
German neutrality will not go down well. East German neutrality will be rubbish too; there is a battalion of East Germans in Mexico already waiting to go into action. The whole mess with the government set-up in West Germany - the Greens, the SPD allowing them to do what they want and Stasi penetration - will come tumbling down soon enough. By then though, the damage will be done. When countries abandon their NATO treaty commitments - it covers the US as well as Western Europe - there will be uproar. Others will, as you say, see it as the smart thing to do though. When i said the smart thing i refer to let the russian and the soviet kill each other; let the Ruskie attack your neighbourgh it's another matter, expecially if the various european nations are interconnected enough (not at EU level, but the basis are already here) and the economic, social and cultural tie are enormous. Not considering the fact that there will not be a single goverment in western europe that will have the desire to the URSS expanding their influence in the rest of Europe; still regarding the reaction of the Bonn goverment, the only way i can see this happening wihthout someone not litteraly kicking the foreign minister out of his office it's to make it an open invitation to the rest of europe/EEC/NATO so to bypass the fear of a pangermanic agreement (sorry but no western german politician will be so stupid to agree at an agreement in such form and as i said everyone knows who really give the order in East Germany) |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 29, 2018 22:52:00 GMT
James
Basically I would agree with Luke on the pacification of Germany like this. However realise you have to square the circle some way to get most of the continent staying 'neutral' for the broader scenario to be even vaguely practical.
Even so there will be hell to pay, especially given the close interaction of many of the economies and also the trading links. The Soviets can't launch major attacks on Britain, Portugal and Ireland without really fouling up a lot of civilian traffic in the Channel especially but also other areas bordering Britain especially. Furthermore I can see at least some unofficial help for Britain in terms of information from radar nets and the like in Germany and neighbouring areas.
One other point that occurs to me. Probably not going to make a massive difference in a fairly short war but I don't think your mentioned much about Canada and also Australasia? Both have strong defensive links to the US and also blood/cultural ties with Britain - albeit weaker than they were - so I expect they will also play some role. You might have mentioned something but as Lordroel says its been a huge project just getting to the start of the war.
On that it's been an excellent piece of work already, keeping things together and researching so much information about such a broad range of subjects. Looking forward to seeing how things develop and how long it takes the US and various other powers to see how much their been suckered. Just hope we do avoid the use of nukes, as it gets very, very hairy once that starts.
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