Soviet Domination - A Red Dawn story

Well that last bit sounds very ominous for the Ukraine, and for the SU in general. If there are lasting mutations affecting say soil bacteria this could be very, very bad. Ironically, although I doubt the Soviet leadership will be willing to accept this but the one thing they can't afford to do is have a big war, especially with the US as they will need those food imports.

Presumably the T-72's and other such weapons from the Soviets are the 'export' versions rather than the type issued to the Red Army? Even so they could be pretty damned effective, or even the older T-55s against minimal defence, at least until the lack of logistic support and growing US resistance.

Things are coming to a head fairly quickly.

For the 2nd Amedment post-war widespread support, i'm not sure, many will probably answer at that proclamation with: 'Why? You want to give them more target practice?' As many, many, many sunday's warriors, survivalist and general 'though guys' will not even be a bump for the invasion and following occupation. The Wolverines being probably one of the very few example of succefull totally autonomous resistance movement...and they lasted little more than an year and had only two survivors of the entire outfit, and i don't even take in consideration the social consequences of the communist retaliation (even here, in real life Italy, there are a lot of people not really keen of the resistance during ww2 due to nazi retaliation that will hit the civilian population); in reality the more succefull forces, will be the one with military or former military personell in sizeble numbers and with coordination with Free America for supply and information.
This can create a Swiss-like system...that ironically while being an example tounted by the NRA it will mean much more control than OTL (included mandatory psych evaluation as you are part of the military and right of sudden and announced home inspection to control the state of the weapons).
Frankly i expect the disappearing of the preppers, once reality hit you hard in the face about your true possibility in that scenario (and for many the sudden realization that no, they will be not the new founding fathers but at best collateral damage), much of the romanticism will be gone.

Yes there will a lot of problem with the word socialism, so it's more probable that any of that type of policy will have carefull phrased name to avoid similarity; sorry but hating the commie invaders or not the majority of the immediate post-war USA population will need the 'much maligned european-style socialist/communist/spawn of the devil/work of Soros nanny wealthfare state' to put something in their stomach and hope for a shelter and something for the future. The bane of OTL Reagan aka Big Goverment will be absolutely necessary to keep famine and pestilence at bay or help in the reconstruction of half the country and the relocation of millions of peoples, not considering that for the duration of the war and the immediate aftermath the USA will be for all the pratical effect a command economy. What will probably change will be some historical american attitude like the 'pull yourself up by your own bootstrap' (very hard to do with million having lost everything, PTSD being widespread like the flu and half the continent leveled...and probably the image of the president going hat on hand to ask financial help will not help that either) or 'better dead than red, give me liberty or give me death, don't tread on me' (many will go along with their lives and even help the soviets for food, privileges or simply not being shoot). In general, having to fight a brutal modern war with WMD on your own territory and rebuild your country in the aftermath change a society greatly, expecially if the last war really fought on her territory has been more than a century before.

(97)

October 1983:

When he’d taken power, el coronel had literally had the doors barred for the two chambers of Mexico’s federal Congress. Senators and deputies had been told to go home. Many had fled soon enough back to their home states or up to the ones in the north and west which made the September Declaration asserting that el coronel’s government was illegal. Not all of the politicians had left Mexico City though with some staying. A few ended up detained on criminal charges of corruption (trumped-up allegations) while the rest stayed away from their separate meeting places and held non-advertised gatherings where they debated the legitimacy of el coronel and also how they would fix things when the country’s dictator was kind enough to let them return. There had been no real repression of them during the short military rule as el coronel hadn’t declared the Congress illegal nor nullified previous election results. He just had refused to let them meet officially. Their numbers in Mexico City dwindled, especially once the Monterrey Government was set up. Only the dedicated stayed with deputies being far more prominent in numbers than senators. They deemed themselves the only honest men in Mexico. A leader emerged among them – as leaders always do – though there was no real fire in his belly nor among his colleagues to directly challenge el coronel because he had already shown he would use force if necessary… as had been the case with President García Paniagua when he’d been deposed with a pistol shot to the forehead.

Right before el coronel fled for exile up in the United States and on the eve of the start of the riots in Mexico City, the rump of what had once been a total of nearly four hundred and fifty politicians, now down to sixty-one, had been recalled by el coronel. He’d demanded that they return to the Chamber of Deputies (there were only a very few senators among them) and declare the ‘succession’ up in the northern and western states just that. He’d been clutching at straws. What difference would it have made? Well… they didn’t do that. They finally got some fire in their bellies and declared his regime illegal just like the Monterrey Government had done. They also asserted that they, acting as united body, were the only legitimate government of Mexico too. Legally they were correct. In Mexico City, that mattered for naught though when the city was torn apart. First it had been that demonstration which had turned violent after a peaceful start and then the slums all around the city, where Mexicans had poured into through recent years in search of work, were torn apart by gunfire then flames before criminal gangs rampaged across the city. They sought to steal from the rich… anyone who had any possessions in fact while destroying what they couldn’t take. The police cracked down on them as they transferred their authority to the Congress and brought most of it to an end. As September turned to October, the Congress began to finally exert itself. Mexico had to have a government and they were it.


Up in Monterrey, there was a different opinion. Those who had stayed in Mexico City and did the bidding of el coronel (though they actually hadn’t in the end was beside the point) were just as bad as he was. It was the Monterrey Government which had legitimacy, those who had stood firm in opposition all along to el coronel. The state governments acting together represented the people, not that odd collection of politicians down in Mexico City, almost all of whom weren’t even from the ruling PRI party who legally held power according to the results of the last nationwide election. Many in Monterrey – PRI members – were keen to go down to Mexico City and boot those collaborators and pretenders out on their behinds! They didn’t feel safe to go down to the capital though. They waited up in Monterrey for the situation there to calm itself down. The reports which came of a city full of violence and alight from end to end – just a bit of an exaggeration! – worried them. They argued among themselves as well. This was over who would take power once they were down in Mexico City. A few voices said that these arguments should take place in Mexico City not in Monterrey, but they were discarded. The majority of members of the Monterrey Government were federal politicians but state politicians instead. Too many interests clashed. Too many egos were present. And too many rumours came up from Mexico City that it was dangerous there.

There were further distractions which delayed the move down to Mexico City as well. Up in Sonora, where rebellion had been put down before it could be started when el coronel had launched his August offensive, that state government declared itself beholden to the September Declaration and the Monterrey Government: it was one of several that did so in early October. At once, there was trouble in Sonora and around the city of Hermosillo where soldiers still loyal to el coronel – he had buggered off and abandoned them but they didn’t know that – tried to put down that apparent secessionism. The effort failed miserably. As in so many other things, the truth of the matter, how few the numbers were and how little they managed to achieve, was lost in the panic. The Monterrey Government looked at all of the soldiers inside the states under their control. There were organised units which were either loyal to them or still declaring themselves neutral as well as disorganised groups of soldiers all over the place who had deserted and often took their weapons with them. Chaos hit parts of the countryside, especially through the states of Sinaloa in the west and Veracruz in the east with these bandits. The parachute brigade commander who’d gone over to the Monterrey Government rather than fight them, was impressed upon the need to get control over his men and all the others. He and his fellow military officers urged for a move to be made down to Mexico City but they weren’t listened to. El coronel’s actions had poisoned any trust in the Mexican Army for so many. There was a fear among many high-ranking people in the Monterrey Government that the military officers couldn’t be trusted (they’d betrayed one master already) and also that they shouldn’t lead the move down to Mexico City because the people wouldn’t welcome that after all of the killing done nationwide when the Mexican Army had used its guns against civilians. Political developments across in the Yucatan Peninsula were another distraction which kept the Monterrey Government from yet moving down to Mexico City. There were there states there: Campeche, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Yucatan had been a late signatory to the September Declaration with the two others following later. Geographical distance exasperated by the (short) fighting in Veracruz had isolated the three states. In the city of Merida, representatives from all three had agreed to put on a united front where their voice would be heard as one when they sent delegates to the Monterrey Government. Once in Monterrey, they caused problems. Others from different states had delayed things in Monterrey where they spoke of what they needed to get through the current difficult times but none were as disruptive as the Yucatan Three. They wanted much in terms of promised economic assistance when the federal government was restored and wouldn’t give in. This brought forth demands from others who didn’t want to be left out. In Monterrey they argued amongst themselves and they stayed put. They were going to Mexico City soon, very soon. Just not yet.


Someone else went to Mexico City before them. The Cuban DGI facilitated the entry of Tirado López into the power vacuum which remained open. He’d been in the city of Guadalajara first then moved to the town of Morelia. The state governments of Jalisco and Michoacán hadn’t been part of the Monterrey Government before nor after the fall of el coronel. They had only been theoretically answerable to the rump Congress in Mexico City as well, just like much of the country. In these recently-ignored areas of the country where there had been sudden mass unemployment and food riots, loss of state-level control had come after the federal government focused elsewhere. Charlatans and agitators had gained influence. The rule of the gun wasn’t what brought them temporary power but the ability to whip up the people. Just like in Mexico City, the rest of the country was full of a recent urban population who’d flooded to the cities and big towns when times had been good and there were jobs. Jalisco and Michoacán had been hotbeds of union activity and the violence which came with government efforts to crack down on that. Some of the worse elements of society had gained access to weaponry which came first from the influx that came from border spillover from the end of the civil war in Guatemala and then the desertion of soldiers from the Mexican Army not just in the north but nationwide too… the deserters always left with their rifles but also walked away from guarding armories as well. No one was paying them to keep them under guard and the search for food to feed their families was paramount. Rampaging mobs of the unruly had been brought under control by improvised militias answerable to those with dreams of power. Actual armed combat was rare across these two southern states: intimidation from one side over the other was what happened in most instances.

Tirado López was an outsider but one who when he arrived knew how to engage with the needy and the angry, especially when working a crowd. The message from him wasn’t about restoring the economy and reestablishing Mexico’s international trade. No, instead, it was bread and jobs. The simple message worked well. The romantic notion of a ‘march in Mexico City’ put forth afterwards was a fairytale. There was nothing like that. No Nicaraguans and certainly no Cubans were openly present among his small entourage which went to the capital city either. This was a Mexican-only affair with very few numbers travelling in vehicles from one crowd to another who didn’t end up following the route like the vehicle column did. There was no resistance in Mexico City against such a man as Tirado López and the crowds there which came out to welcome him when he came to the capital. A big public gathering heard him speak, recalling later the emotion rather than any specific words beyond ‘bread’ and ‘jobs’. What more did they need to hear? His crowd was the downtrodden, the forgotten and the desperate. It was all a bluff though. Tirado López could have lost the crowds and the mob which then followed him at any moment. He held them though, mainly because they held themselves together. It was a people power revolution which came to Mexico City in late October. A battalion of troops might have held Tirado López back when he led tens of thousands towards the centre of the city but then maybe not. There was no battalion of troops anyway. The police stepped aside. The politicians from the rump Congress, who were still meeting in the Saint Lazarus Palace and discussing the specific aspects of restoring international trade using tariff cuts and tax incentives, were only informed when the crowds were in Zócalo Square. They left, only for a ‘temporary period’. Tirado López took Mexico City without a shot. The Mexican who had long fought as a guerrilla commander with the Sandinistas down in Nicaragua (winning in the very end due to Cuban overt military assistance rather than on their own) had no need for bullets in his home country. When the politicians representing one of Mexico’s two current governments, and which had been the de jure one as far as international recognition was, ran away fearing for their lives now that someone could really control the people effectively.

From out in the Zócalo, Tirado López – still in shock at how easy it had been – declared the Second Mexican Revolution. The crowds roared in approval, almost none of them knowing what that would truly mean: bread and jobs would be a long way off for them. The country had seen months of civil strife and outbreaks of fighting but Tirado López was about to give his country a real civil war. That would be one which would, just like the others that had taken place across Central America over the past years, drag in other countries too.

Something in between. A fudge. One which will please no one and upset all.

He won't disappoint.

What will matter truly will be polling come 1984 as he heads towards the election. Something big - non war related - will occur before the end of 1983 to mess with things.