stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Mar 31, 2018 17:48:45 GMT
(91)July 1983: Among the core group of remaining Sandinistas, those who had fought the long fight and were still alive in post-revolutionary Nicaragua, there was a Mexican national named Victor Manuel Tirado López. Tirado López was a committed communist and someone to whom the Mexican government was unfriendly towards. Only last year, pushed by the DGI and against the objections of Borge, the Ortega brothers had sent him up to his native land using a different identity. His trip had been to assess the political situation there. Upon his return, Tirado López had told the Ortegas that there had been no real change in Mexico. The country was in no way ready for a revolution nor armed conflict to push Mexico towards one. He had only reinforced his own opinion in what he had seen, but that still didn’t mean that he didn’t return with the truth. Mexico wasn’t fertile ground for anything like what had happened in Nicaragua & Guatemala in previous years and what was occurring now in El Salvador & Honduras. Only a fool would think otherwise. The economic situation wasn’t desperate for the poor and the government wasn’t overtly oppressive. Mexico’s leaders showed no sign of turning the people against them. None of the factors which created the civil wars in Central America were apparent up in Mexico. He would like his native land to see justice, freedom and everything else that communism could bring, but that wasn’t to be. It was just impossible. The report from Tirado López which was sent onto the Cubans was read by the KGB too; the feeling in Moscow was that any sign of serious trouble in Mexico would rain down fire and fury from across the Rio Grande too. It would be a country too far, Andropov had said, and a serious geo-political error. The beliefs of Andropov and the observations from Tirado López would stand in stark contrast to what was about to happen. Andropov would be pushing up daisies before the end to that story came while Tirado López himself would be in Mexico City ruling over a nation up in arms. That was in the future though, the short-term future yes, but not what was going on right now. The economic crisis started to bite home hard across Mexico. The problems moved from the (destroyed) financial centre down to the workers, especially those in the cities and big towns to where so many Mexicans in recent years had moved to find work. The lay-offs continued and the price of food skyrocketed. From the government, when criticism in the media started to get too strong, blaming not just President García Paniagua but the PRI party as a whole for decades of foolishness, there came a crackdown there with newspapers, radio and television muzzled. Big announcements were made that things were going to be fixed. None of that stopped the protests which took place from those made unemployed and with families to feed. It didn’t stop the strikes by government workers (directly or indirectly employed) about the coming lay-offs and the immediate wages cuts to them too. There was rioting in places which came with the protests and the strikes and things got out of hand in a few instances. The police, national and local forces, were ineffective in following orders coming straight from the top to put a stop to those. They were in the same position as those whose heads which they were supposed to bash: caught up in this economic crisis which was now affecting all Mexicans. Mexico City was gripped by a massive riot which spun out of control and spread from the slums to the very centre of the capital city. García Paniagua decided that the only thing to do was to call upon the military where the police had failed. The Mexican Army had well-trained and numerous military police detachments and they brought and end to that riot with García Paniagua pleased at the results… he pretended that he didn’t hear the casualty numbers because he was more focused on parts of the city burning. Where elsewhere there was trouble too with rioting, coming from protests which seemed to fast lose all sense of purpose – it was about jobs and food but became an orgy of destruction –, the president decided that only military force would be effective. He saw the resignation of several of his ministers in response to this fateful decision but firmly believed he was doing what was best for Mexico. How could foreign capital and investment be persuaded to return to Mexico if the country was alight? The Mexican Army was small but in the absence of a serious foreign threat to the country nor any worldwide commitments, that size was long deemed suitable for Mexico. The majority of the professional and mobile units of the army, including most of the military police units, were based around Mexico City though able to deploy nationwide from there. The brigades of infantry were always designed to reinforce smaller, local units in times of trouble: such was the military deployment structure in the country. This had recently been done with the army’s brigade of paratroopers joining another two of infantry in going down to Chiapas and the Guatemalan border area and staying there to work with locally-based forces to enforce order in that southern region. Further units from around the capital, including almost all of the military police detachments, were now deployed in presidential orders nationwide as rioting continued throughout the country. Murders and deliberate arson had taken place across cities such as Chihuahua, Guadalajara, Monterrey, Juarez and Puebla. Reliable military units from the Mexico City area, joined by local forces, would move in to put an end to this. Orders from the government were just the same as those which had been issued in the capital: civilians were to be detained and the violence ended, there was to be no unnecessary shooting of the people. As had been the case in Mexico City, that was all fine in theory but not in practice. Soldiers carrying live weaponry sent into unfamiliar areas where there is chaos and enraged population never mix well. This mix saw massacres take place. None of it was intentional. It was preventable though. The soldiers should never have been sent on such missions. Many of them lost their lives too, killed by the mob when they were dragged away from their comrades during urban conflict. The worse of the violence came in Guadalajara and Puebla where things really got out of hand. In addition, when the soldiers came under attack and responded with reasonable force to maintain law and order (the official line), there was some interference from the local police in several instances where shots might or might not have been fired at the soldiers from those who also had weapons but refused to use them against their fellow civilians. Details on that were fuzzy, a lot had been going on. Overall though, the Mexican Army had fought against the people. The anger in response, by those who knew their history of oppressive governments in the past especially, was widespread throughout the country. García Paniagua refused to listen to the pleas from others in his broken and demoralised government to pull the soldiers back. He alone commanded the Mexican Army. He declared a state of emergency and vowed to put down what he deemed ‘insurrection’. He would save Mexico, from itself if necessary. A senior Mexican Army officer, a man known as el coronel (the colonel) despite now being a general officer – he’d long been legendary in that former rank –, put a stop to that madness. He put a bullet in the head of García Paniagua. El coronel took power in Mexico for what was supposed to be a short period. He would restore order and punish those responsible for what had recently gone on. When he addressed the Mexican people on television, dressed in his full military regalia and surrounded by his fellow generals, the country’s supposed interim leader promised justice. There would be food, there would be jobs and there would be no more violence. Elections would be coming soon as well, fair ones at that. Cynics at home and abroad asked themselves whether any military cabal which had taken power forcefully from a civilian government had ever willingly and fast handed power back to civilians before. There was a promise from el coronel that such a thing was to happen though… once the mess created in the past few months had been sorted out. The image of a general taking powering in a violent coup d’état, where the country’s civilian president had been killed, didn’t go over very well up in Washington. Latin America was full of military governments and none of them were personally liked by Kennedy. The president was informed by Mondale – who spoke with el coronel when Kennedy refused to on a point of principle – that Mexico’s new leader was appealing to the United States for help. What help did he want? Financial help, lots of it. Like García Paniagua before him, el coronel was begging for money from the American taxpayer. Hell, no. Kennedy was opposed to such an idea on more than just principle: he knew that the American people wouldn’t stand for that. Images on the evening news and reports in the big newspapers had come of the violence in Mexico where soldiers had reported killed hundreds, maybe thousands. The fact that a general had now seized power by killing a civilian president to put a stop to his soldiers killing civilians didn’t play well at all. Kennedy wasn’t going to do it. Next November and his re-election was still some time away, but he was no dummy on an issue like this. He saw it coming back to haunt him next year. Mexico could sort this issue out for themselves. It was an internal Mexican affair. He had been briefed that there was no foreign interference in what had gone on in Mexico and it was all a problem of the Mexican’s own making. The country could and would have to deal with its own mess. There would be no bailout from Washington and no help in other areas until civilian rule, legitimate civilian rule at that, was restored in Mexico City. Kennedy also had other more important matters on his mind following is return from the peace deal he had been behind in the Middle East. Now was the time to deal with a real United States reaction to the ongoing and verified Soviet troop withdrawals from Eastern Europe. The time was coming to respond to that good faith shown by Moscow with good faith coming in return from the Kennedy Administration. He knew it wasn’t going to be easy, but Kennedy believed he was ready for the backlash from those who didn’t see the big picture like he did. I do hope this el coronel does not become like a certain other colonel we now. I strongly suspect that he won't be around for very long.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Mar 31, 2018 17:55:41 GMT
Yep, the colonel won't last the year. As to Western Europe and NATO, that is up next.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 31, 2018 19:37:55 GMT
Yep, the colonel won't last the year. As to Western Europe and NATO, that is up next. So the trouble in Mexico is not over.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Mar 31, 2018 19:46:30 GMT
Yep, the colonel won't last the year. As to Western Europe and NATO, that is up next. So the trouble in Mexico is not over. Most certainly not. Neither the colonel nor his successor will be able to put down the violence, violence which will spread and evolve in motivation no matter who is in charge in Mexico City.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 31, 2018 19:49:54 GMT
So the trouble in Mexico is not over. Most certainly not. Neither the colonel nor his successor will be able to put down the violence, violence which will spread and evolve in motivation no matter who is in charge in Mexico City. That i defiantly call the 2nd Mexican Revolution.
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Apr 1, 2018 7:26:43 GMT
From how I understand things, one mr. Lopez, currently abroad, has a good chance to end up in power. Which would also make the Red Dawn a lot easier. And of course, it would seriously justify the policies of earlier American presidents towards Latin America.
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Post by lukedalton on Apr 1, 2018 9:38:24 GMT
From how I understand things, one mr. Lopez, currently abroad, has a good chance to end up in power. Which would also make the Red Dawn a lot easier. And of course, it would seriously justify the policies of earlier American presidents towards Latin America. It will become a circular thing: we had to invade, economically exploit and support violent and nasty dictators in various central and south america nations as otherwise they had become communist/socialist and america's enemies...but they had become enemies and embraced communism because how shit the USA treated them
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Apr 1, 2018 10:18:22 GMT
Most certainly not. Neither the colonel nor his successor will be able to put down the violence, violence which will spread and evolve in motivation no matter who is in charge in Mexico City. That i defiantly call the 2nd Mexican Revolution. Most revolutions go that way and I aim to follow the tradition. From how I understand things, one mr. Lopez, currently abroad, has a good chance to end up in power. Which would also make the Red Dawn a lot easier. And of course, it would seriously justify the policies of earlier American presidents towards Latin America. Yep, he will. And he'll end up fighting rebels too, being the oppressor when he was a freedom fighter. And he'll have the boot of the Cubans on his neck while the Soviets are tugging at the puppet strings from afar. That is for 1984 though. It will become a circular thing: we had to invade, economically exploit and support violent and nasty dictators in various central and south america nations as otherwise they had become communist/socialist and america's enemies...but they had become enemies and embraced communism because how shit the USA treated them An acting out of the domino theory is one of the themes of the story so this fits with that.
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lordbyron
Warrant Officer
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Post by lordbyron on Apr 1, 2018 13:42:38 GMT
Ted Kennedy is probably going to permanently blacken the Kennedy legacy by the time his presidency is over...
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 1, 2018 13:44:43 GMT
Ted Kennedy is probably going to permanently blacken the Kennedy legacy by the time his presidency is over... I agree, he will forever be the black sheep of the family, the one who destroyed the Kennedy reputation.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Apr 1, 2018 13:57:43 GMT
Ted Kennedy is probably going to permanently blacken the Kennedy legacy by the time his presidency is over... I agree, he will forever be the black sheep of the family, the one who destroyed the Kennedy reputation. Leaving that girl to die wasn't enough to do that in RL when it really should have been. Can you imagine anyone but a Kennedy getting away with that? Being lionised like he was in later years too?
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Apr 1, 2018 13:58:07 GMT
(92)
August 1983:
Kennedy had been intending to wait until September before he made his big announcement. His aim was to spend the summer having official contacts made with fellow governments and shoring up domestic support at home for his decision on withdrawing selected American forces from Western Europe. Previous decisions had been unilateral and ended up distracting the prestige he hoped to get. He planned to go ahead regardless of what was said, that was true, but at least give the pretence of listening to the opinions of others and taking that advice aboard etc. However, there had been leaks made and the Washington Post was planning to make revelations. This was a newspaper, like others, which were still sitting on personal stories about him, but the NATO issue was something which they were going to print: the drinking and sex allegations were kept under wraps. Kennedy pre-empted that release of his NATO plan, scooping them. He did the opposite of what he set out to do in being seen to listen and engage all so that he wouldn’t have to see the media get their story out first. It was almost like he was daring those newspapers to go and print their other revelations, laying down the gauntlet because he liked to live dangerously… What became known as the Kennedy Plan was something in fact drawn up by others at the Pentagon and among independent, outside advisors whom the president called in for their specialist knowledge. Up until the very end, the plan was kept secret. There were hints and rumours but nothing concrete. Official and unofficial statements were made said that there was no plan underway. Well, those were lies. The Kennedy Plan was revealed at the beginning of August and hadn’t come out of the blue.
Troops, combat aircraft and tactical missiles (complete with nuclear warheads) would be removed from Western Europe starting next year. The earlier and ongoing Soviet withdrawals would be matched by American redeployments. Only a portion of United States’ military strength would be leaving and not all of it going back across the North Atlantic too but instead going elsewhere in Western Europe rather than remaining in West Germany. Just as the Soviets had done – pulling six divisions out of East Germany by now, elsewhere into Eastern Europe –, American forces wouldn’t be going far at the moment as long as hosting for them could be found. A wing of US Air Force F-16 multi-role fighter-bombers and another of A-10 attack-fighters would be removed along with the 56th Artillery Brigade from the US Army with their Pershing missiles. Also from the US Army would be combat formations in the form of one full division, two independent brigades and an armoured cavalry regiment; a corps headquarters would be coming out too. With those aircraft and the ground units, the Kennedy Plan called for the ability for those withdrawn forces to immediately return by leaving behind the infrastructure in-place. This meant that while combat forces were shrinking, combat-support (artillery, engineers & helicopters) and service-support elements (maintenance, supply & transportation) were staying behind. That wasn’t the same with the Pershing missiles, they were being fully withdrawn. The withdrawals would start in the New Year.
As can be imagined, this caused quite the uproar. That uproar was in many places among all sorts of different people and institutions. Not all of that was honest too for there was some hint of what was coming due to the rumours coming out but more-importantly Kennedy’s behaviour leading up to his big announcement. There had come words of praise for the Soviets in their actions in pulling out their own forces while at the same time only minor condemnation of such recent events like the Chinese airliner shootdown: previous outrages like the invasion of Iran were forgotten too. Kennedy himself had point-black refused to answer questions on whether he was considering mirroring the troop redeployments out of the divided Germanys and left the denials to others. That too had been seen before with his administration, one which defied so many precedents set by those which had come before. It was the Sinatra Doctrine again, one which had started back in January two years ago when he was inaugurated, where he did things his way. Congress was in recess for the summer though members of both chambers, especially the Senate in Republican hands, made media appearances where there was a promise to take action on this, maybe even block the whole thing if they could. Former senior officials back from the Ford Administration came out in protest, so too did other influential former politicians no longer in Congress. One of those foreign affairs think-tanks – one of the ones which had been constantly issuing those dire warnings that were mocked in off-the-record briefings from the White House – had its spokesman claim that Andropov was ill and soon to die; once he was gone, his successor, whomever that might be, wouldn’t honour agreements made with Kennedy therefore returning Soviet troops and nuclear missiles to East Germany in a hurry leaving Western Europe exposed and open to attack.
The real drama came across on the other side of the Atlantic though. One after another, Western European governments lined up to protest against yet another unilateral decision coming from Washington. None of the NATO members were happy at being left out of any discussions… no… not so much that, but instead ignored like they didn’t matter. NATO was an alliance of equals, the small countries mattered as equally as the big ones. All had a voice which counted the same as everyone else. The Kennedy Administration treated them like they didn’t matter. Initial comments coming from certain American figures that as this involved United States military forces, this was a solely American matter were met with incredulity at first and then outright anger. Kennedy spoke several times with Chancellor Vogel and calmed him somewhat but he was too busy to speak to other leaders such as Thatcher, Mitterrand, Craxi, Lubbers and Martens. Dealing with them was left to Glenn, Mondale and Muskie. Kennedy’s focus was on gaining West German acquiescence for the withdrawals to take place. He had been intending to do this before the announcement was made but ended up starting that process straight after he told the world. The Kennedy-Vogel talks were strained and demanded the president’s attention for some time. Vogel didn’t want US military forces to leave his country, even only in part, and did tell Kennedy that it would only strengthen the hand of domestic opponents-cum-allies of his (temporary allies) in the form of The Greens as they would present this as a victory for them and their people-power protests. Kennedy’s advisers told him that Vogel was taking nonsense – they had their own understanding of domestic politics in West Germany, an understanding surely better than the West German chancellor – and that Vogel was aiming to delay the inevitable in the hope that Kennedy would be voted out of office next year. Such remarks had been made to the president before, mirroring his own thinking when it came to many so-called allies, where they were all waiting for him to go down in flames next November. The Kennedy-Vogel talks (conducted through multiple phone calls) produced no meaningful result: the West Germans were still opposed to the withdrawals, especially in their unilateral manner. If the United States had gone through NATO with this, even government-to-government before a big domestic announcement, then things might have turned out differently. But that Kennedy hadn’t done.
Thatcher came to an agreement with Glenn where the British Prime Minister agreed to host a small element of the withdrawing forces coming out of West Germany at temporary holding points in Britain. The Vice President could only get the UK to take some (space considerations were what it was all about), but it was better than none. He didn’t report back to Kennedy that he was told unofficially, in a nod-and-a-wink fashion by the British that they were banking on Kennedy being voted out of office in fifteen months time: he probably should have, but he didn’t. Mitterrand and Craxi, France’s president and Italy’s brand new prime minister, had a meeting between themselves when they got little of substance from Mondale and Muskie regarding American long-term military commitment to United States defence of Europe. What worried them, and then others later, was that the Americans would eventually remove all American troops from West Germany. The consequences from that didn’t bode well for the future of Western Europe. In one worse case scenario, without taking any casualties of their own in any Soviet invasion limited to West Germany, the United States might decide not to fight. In another hypothetical, without troops to hold the line straight away, the Americans might decide to at once ‘defend’ West Germany with nuclear weapons coming from strikes launched from outside of Western Europe. This didn’t have to happen this year nor this decade, under this president nor the next… but sometime in the future and all coming long after the announcement of the Kennedy Plan. These two leaders started talking about that future. Their talks would eventually, in the coming months, develop significantly away from where they started and be influenced by external events elsewhere in the world. Kennedy had killed NATO as something relevant. He nor anyone else were yet to know that, but the organisation was now on its last legs. Who would have ever thought that would happen starting back with Soviet tanks going east and not west?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 1, 2018 14:02:22 GMT
(92)August 1983: Kennedy had been intending to wait until September before he made his big announcement. His aim was to spend the summer having official contacts made with fellow governments and shoring up domestic support at home for his decision on withdrawing selected American forces from Western Europe. Previous decisions had been unilateral and ended up distracting the prestige he hoped to get. He planned to go ahead regardless of what was said, that was true, but at least give the pretence of listening to the opinions of others and taking that advice aboard etc. However, there had been leaks made and the Washington Post was planning to make revelations. This was a newspaper, like others, which were still sitting on personal stories about him, but the NATO issue was something which they were going to print: the drinking and sex allegations were kept under wraps. Kennedy pre-empted that release of his NATO plan, scooping them. He did the opposite of what he set out to do in being seen to listen and engage all so that he wouldn’t have to see the media get their story out first. It was almost like he was daring those newspapers to go and print their other revelations, laying down the gauntlet because he liked to live dangerously… What became known as the Kennedy Plan was something in fact drawn up by others at the Pentagon and among independent, outside advisors whom the president called in for their specialist knowledge. Up until the very end, the plan was kept secret. There were hints and rumours but nothing concrete. Official and unofficial statements were made said that there was no plan underway. Well, those were lies. The Kennedy Plan was revealed at the beginning of August and hadn’t come out of the blue. Troops, combat aircraft and tactical missiles (complete with nuclear warheads) would be removed from Western Europe starting next year. The earlier and ongoing Soviet withdrawals would be matched by American redeployments. Only a portion of United States’ military strength would be leaving and not all of it going back across the North Atlantic too but instead going elsewhere in Western Europe rather than remaining in West Germany. Just as the Soviets had done – pulling six divisions out of East Germany by now, elsewhere into Eastern Europe –, American forces wouldn’t be going far at the moment as long as hosting for them could be found. A wing of US Air Force F-16 multi-role fighter-bombers and another of A-10 attack-fighters would be removed along with the 56th Artillery Brigade from the US Army with their Pershing missiles. Also from the US Army would be combat formations in the form of one full division, two independent brigades and an armoured cavalry regiment; a corps headquarters would be coming out too. With those aircraft and the ground units, the Kennedy Plan called for the ability for those withdrawn forces to immediately return by leaving behind the infrastructure in-place. This meant that while combat forces were shrinking, combat-support (artillery, engineers & helicopters) and service-support elements (maintenance, supply & transportation) were staying behind. That wasn’t the same with the Pershing missiles, they were being fully withdrawn. The withdrawals would start in the New Year. As can be imagined, this caused quite the uproar. That uproar was in many places among all sorts of different people and institutions. Not all of that was honest too for there was some hint of what was coming due to the rumours coming out but more-importantly Kennedy’s behaviour leading up to his big announcement. There had come words of praise for the Soviets in their actions in pulling out their own forces while at the same time only minor condemnation of such recent events like the Chinese airliner shootdown: previous outrages like the invasion of Iran were forgotten too. Kennedy himself had point-black refused to answer questions on whether he was considering mirroring the troop redeployments out of the divided Germanys and left the denials to others. That too had been seen before with his administration, one which defied so many precedents set by those which had come before. It was the Sinatra Doctrine again, one which had started back in January two years ago when he was inaugurated, where he did things his way. Congress was in recess for the summer though members of both chambers, especially the Senate in Republican hands, made media appearances where there was a promise to take action on this, maybe even block the whole thing if they could. Former senior officials back from the Ford Administration came out in protest, so too did other influential former politicians no longer in Congress. One of those foreign affairs think-tanks – one of the ones which had been constantly issuing those dire warnings that were mocked in off-the-record briefings from the White House – had its spokesman claim that Andropov was ill and soon to die; once he was gone, his successor, whomever that might be, wouldn’t honour agreements made with Kennedy therefore returning Soviet troops and nuclear missiles to East Germany in a hurry leaving Western Europe exposed and open to attack. The real drama came across on the other side of the Atlantic though. One after another, Western European governments lined up to protest against yet another unilateral decision coming from Washington. None of the NATO members were happy at being left out of any discussions… no… not so much that, but instead ignored like they didn’t matter. NATO was an alliance of equals, the small countries mattered as equally as the big ones. All had a voice which counted the same as everyone else. The Kennedy Administration treated them like they didn’t matter. Initial comments coming from certain American figures that as this involved United States military forces, this was a solely American matter were met with incredulity at first and then outright anger. Kennedy spoke several times with Chancellor Vogel and calmed him somewhat but he was too busy to speak to other leaders such as Thatcher, Mitterrand, Craxi, Lubbers and Martens. Dealing with them was left to Glenn, Mondale and Muskie. Kennedy’s focus was on gaining West German acquiescence for the withdrawals to take place. He had been intending to do this before the announcement was made but ended up starting that process straight after he told the world. The Kennedy-Vogel talks were strained and demanded the president’s attention for some time. Vogel didn’t want US military forces to leave his country, even only in part, and did tell Kennedy that it would only strengthen the hand of domestic opponents-cum-allies of his (temporary allies) in the form of The Greens as they would present this as a victory for them and their people-power protests. Kennedy’s advisers told him that Vogel was taking nonsense – they had their own understanding of domestic politics in West Germany, an understanding surely better than the West German chancellor – and that Vogel was aiming to delay the inevitable in the hope that Kennedy would be voted out of office next year. Such remarks had been made to the president before, mirroring his own thinking when it came to many so-called allies, where they were all waiting for him to go down in flames next November. The Kennedy-Vogel talks (conducted through multiple phone calls) produced no meaningful result: the West Germans were still opposed to the withdrawals, especially in their unilateral manner. If the United States had gone through NATO with this, even government-to-government before a big domestic announcement, then things might have turned out differently. But that Kennedy hadn’t done. Thatcher came to an agreement with Glenn where the British Prime Minister agreed to host a small element of the withdrawing forces coming out of West Germany at temporary holding points in Britain. The Vice President could only get the UK to take some (space considerations were what it was all about), but it was better than none. He didn’t report back to Kennedy that he was told unofficially, in a nod-and-a-wink fashion by the British that they were banking on Kennedy being voted out of office in fifteen months time: he probably should have, but he didn’t. Mitterrand and Craxi, France’s president and Italy’s brand new prime minister, had a meeting between themselves when they got little of substance from Mondale and Muskie regarding American long-term military commitment to United States defence of Europe. What worried them, and then others later, was that the Americans would eventually remove all American troops from West Germany. The consequences from that didn’t bode well for the future of Western Europe. In one worse case scenario, without taking any casualties of their own in any Soviet invasion limited to West Germany, the United States might decide not to fight. In another hypothetical, without troops to hold the line straight away, the Americans might decide to at once ‘defend’ West Germany with nuclear weapons coming from strikes launched from outside of Western Europe. This didn’t have to happen this year nor this decade, under this president nor the next… but sometime in the future and all coming long after the announcement of the Kennedy Plan. These two leaders started talking about that future. Their talks would eventually, in the coming months, develop significantly away from where they started and be influenced by external events elsewhere in the world. Kennedy had killed NATO as something relevant. He nor anyone else were yet to know that, but the organisation was now on its last legs. Who would have ever thought that would happen starting back with Soviet tanks going east and not west? Am i the only person here that does not like the Kennedy Plan.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Apr 1, 2018 14:14:05 GMT
(92)August 1983: Kennedy had been intending to wait until September before he made his big announcement. His aim was to spend the summer having official contacts made with fellow governments and shoring up domestic support at home for his decision on withdrawing selected American forces from Western Europe. Previous decisions had been unilateral and ended up distracting the prestige he hoped to get. He planned to go ahead regardless of what was said, that was true, but at least give the pretence of listening to the opinions of others and taking that advice aboard etc. However, there had been leaks made and the Washington Post was planning to make revelations. This was a newspaper, like others, which were still sitting on personal stories about him, but the NATO issue was something which they were going to print: the drinking and sex allegations were kept under wraps. Kennedy pre-empted that release of his NATO plan, scooping them. He did the opposite of what he set out to do in being seen to listen and engage all so that he wouldn’t have to see the media get their story out first. It was almost like he was daring those newspapers to go and print their other revelations, laying down the gauntlet because he liked to live dangerously… What became known as the Kennedy Plan was something in fact drawn up by others at the Pentagon and among independent, outside advisors whom the president called in for their specialist knowledge. Up until the very end, the plan was kept secret. There were hints and rumours but nothing concrete. Official and unofficial statements were made said that there was no plan underway. Well, those were lies. The Kennedy Plan was revealed at the beginning of August and hadn’t come out of the blue. Troops, combat aircraft and tactical missiles (complete with nuclear warheads) would be removed from Western Europe starting next year. The earlier and ongoing Soviet withdrawals would be matched by American redeployments. Only a portion of United States’ military strength would be leaving and not all of it going back across the North Atlantic too but instead going elsewhere in Western Europe rather than remaining in West Germany. Just as the Soviets had done – pulling six divisions out of East Germany by now, elsewhere into Eastern Europe –, American forces wouldn’t be going far at the moment as long as hosting for them could be found. A wing of US Air Force F-16 multi-role fighter-bombers and another of A-10 attack-fighters would be removed along with the 56th Artillery Brigade from the US Army with their Pershing missiles. Also from the US Army would be combat formations in the form of one full division, two independent brigades and an armoured cavalry regiment; a corps headquarters would be coming out too. With those aircraft and the ground units, the Kennedy Plan called for the ability for those withdrawn forces to immediately return by leaving behind the infrastructure in-place. This meant that while combat forces were shrinking, combat-support (artillery, engineers & helicopters) and service-support elements (maintenance, supply & transportation) were staying behind. That wasn’t the same with the Pershing missiles, they were being fully withdrawn. The withdrawals would start in the New Year. As can be imagined, this caused quite the uproar. That uproar was in many places among all sorts of different people and institutions. Not all of that was honest too for there was some hint of what was coming due to the rumours coming out but more-importantly Kennedy’s behaviour leading up to his big announcement. There had come words of praise for the Soviets in their actions in pulling out their own forces while at the same time only minor condemnation of such recent events like the Chinese airliner shootdown: previous outrages like the invasion of Iran were forgotten too. Kennedy himself had point-black refused to answer questions on whether he was considering mirroring the troop redeployments out of the divided Germanys and left the denials to others. That too had been seen before with his administration, one which defied so many precedents set by those which had come before. It was the Sinatra Doctrine again, one which had started back in January two years ago when he was inaugurated, where he did things his way. Congress was in recess for the summer though members of both chambers, especially the Senate in Republican hands, made media appearances where there was a promise to take action on this, maybe even block the whole thing if they could. Former senior officials back from the Ford Administration came out in protest, so too did other influential former politicians no longer in Congress. One of those foreign affairs think-tanks – one of the ones which had been constantly issuing those dire warnings that were mocked in off-the-record briefings from the White House – had its spokesman claim that Andropov was ill and soon to die; once he was gone, his successor, whomever that might be, wouldn’t honour agreements made with Kennedy therefore returning Soviet troops and nuclear missiles to East Germany in a hurry leaving Western Europe exposed and open to attack. The real drama came across on the other side of the Atlantic though. One after another, Western European governments lined up to protest against yet another unilateral decision coming from Washington. None of the NATO members were happy at being left out of any discussions… no… not so much that, but instead ignored like they didn’t matter. NATO was an alliance of equals, the small countries mattered as equally as the big ones. All had a voice which counted the same as everyone else. The Kennedy Administration treated them like they didn’t matter. Initial comments coming from certain American figures that as this involved United States military forces, this was a solely American matter were met with incredulity at first and then outright anger. Kennedy spoke several times with Chancellor Vogel and calmed him somewhat but he was too busy to speak to other leaders such as Thatcher, Mitterrand, Craxi, Lubbers and Martens. Dealing with them was left to Glenn, Mondale and Muskie. Kennedy’s focus was on gaining West German acquiescence for the withdrawals to take place. He had been intending to do this before the announcement was made but ended up starting that process straight after he told the world. The Kennedy-Vogel talks were strained and demanded the president’s attention for some time. Vogel didn’t want US military forces to leave his country, even only in part, and did tell Kennedy that it would only strengthen the hand of domestic opponents-cum-allies of his (temporary allies) in the form of The Greens as they would present this as a victory for them and their people-power protests. Kennedy’s advisers told him that Vogel was taking nonsense – they had their own understanding of domestic politics in West Germany, an understanding surely better than the West German chancellor – and that Vogel was aiming to delay the inevitable in the hope that Kennedy would be voted out of office next year. Such remarks had been made to the president before, mirroring his own thinking when it came to many so-called allies, where they were all waiting for him to go down in flames next November. The Kennedy-Vogel talks (conducted through multiple phone calls) produced no meaningful result: the West Germans were still opposed to the withdrawals, especially in their unilateral manner. If the United States had gone through NATO with this, even government-to-government before a big domestic announcement, then things might have turned out differently. But that Kennedy hadn’t done. Thatcher came to an agreement with Glenn where the British Prime Minister agreed to host a small element of the withdrawing forces coming out of West Germany at temporary holding points in Britain. The Vice President could only get the UK to take some (space considerations were what it was all about), but it was better than none. He didn’t report back to Kennedy that he was told unofficially, in a nod-and-a-wink fashion by the British that they were banking on Kennedy being voted out of office in fifteen months time: he probably should have, but he didn’t. Mitterrand and Craxi, France’s president and Italy’s brand new prime minister, had a meeting between themselves when they got little of substance from Mondale and Muskie regarding American long-term military commitment to United States defence of Europe. What worried them, and then others later, was that the Americans would eventually remove all American troops from West Germany. The consequences from that didn’t bode well for the future of Western Europe. In one worse case scenario, without taking any casualties of their own in any Soviet invasion limited to West Germany, the United States might decide not to fight. In another hypothetical, without troops to hold the line straight away, the Americans might decide to at once ‘defend’ West Germany with nuclear weapons coming from strikes launched from outside of Western Europe. This didn’t have to happen this year nor this decade, under this president nor the next… but sometime in the future and all coming long after the announcement of the Kennedy Plan. These two leaders started talking about that future. Their talks would eventually, in the coming months, develop significantly away from where they started and be influenced by external events elsewhere in the world. Kennedy had killed NATO as something relevant. He nor anyone else were yet to know that, but the organisation was now on its last legs. Who would have ever thought that would happen starting back with Soviet tanks going east and not west? Am i the only person here that does not like the Kennedy Plan. You won't be alone. Some US military officers with resign their commission over this, a Cabinet official will be forced out as well. It is only a percentage of those in-place but it is the start. It will throw NATO into chaos too, especially with following events. In a year's time, when the US suddenly needs NATO, that is when this - combined with everything else - will bite very hard. Those Pershing missiles BTW, are the original Pershing-1s; Pershing-2 was never developed. V Corps headquarters along with 3rd Armored Division, the forward brigades for the 2nd Armored & 1st Infantry Divisions in West Germany plus the 2nd Cavalry Regiment are coming out too along with a pair of USAF wings. It is a big deal.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 1, 2018 14:16:50 GMT
Am i the only person here that does not like the Kennedy Plan. You won't be alone. Some US military officers with resign their commission over this, a Cabinet official will be forced out as well. It is only a percentage of those in-place but it is the start. It will throw NATO into chaos too, especially with following events. In a year's time, when the US suddenly needs NATO, that is when this - combined with everything else - will bite very hard. Those Pershing missiles BTW, are the original Pershing-1s; Pershing-2 was never developed. V Corps headquarters along with 3rd Armored Division, the forward brigades for the 2nd Armored & 1st Infantry Divisions in West Germany plus the 2nd Cavalry Regiment are coming out too along with a pair of USAF wings. It is a big deal. Does the 32nd Tactical Fighter Squadron that operates out of Soesterberg Air Base also departs as part of the Kennedy Plan.
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