jfoxx
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Post by jfoxx on Dec 28, 2018 23:06:01 GMT
I agree that as much as the public would like to see the total defeat of the USSR, with nukes, that is impossible.
But the story so far seems to have set out the sketch of a peace treaty. In exchange for the allies and eda to not press home a coming epic defeat of the USSR, Moscow will betray all of their Western Hemisphere allies (giving the US free reign to rage against the Cubans and others) and betray North Korea (allowing reunification). The eda and allies will allow the Soviets to “keep China” to save face. Former Soviet allies in Eastern Europe and the Middle East will seek propection from the eda with the Soviets cowed.
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Post by eurowatch on Dec 29, 2018 0:21:04 GMT
I have a feeling that while the armistice is in Effect, everybody is still preparing for a new offensive the moment it runs out or negotiations fail.
As for peace talk, I speculate that the West has a feeling the Soviet Union is weak (or else they would be asking for a cease fire) and Will begin With high demands that can then be negotiated Down to allow Moscow to save face. I think they Will ask for:
- Withdrawel of all Soviet troops from occupied Territory within a set time frame.
- war reparations and an official apology.
- Allow East Germany to unite With West Germany.
- that referendumns, monitored by neatral Third parties, are held in Warzawa Pact members to determine if the country want to become independent or stay With the Soviet Union.
- hand over part of its nuclear stockpile for dismanteling by a neatral Third party.
- Hand over the four Kuril Islands Japan lays claim to.
- Allow North Korea to be conquered by South Korea and support the establishment of an unified Korean state.
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James G
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Post by James G on Dec 29, 2018 1:46:22 GMT
Glenn should have two words for the USSR: Monroe Doctrine. Also known as GTFO of our Hemisphere. Also, Congress will demand much at the negotiating table. More than the Soviets will be willing to give. I wonder if economic reality will finally rear its ugly head. The Soviet economy must be non functional at this point. It will be the Monroe Doctrine for certain. Plus even more: all territory of the Allies occupied to be at once given up. Congress had been quite forceful and has forced Glenn's hand on several issues already: abolishing the CIA, firing the secretary of defence. There are people there who won't be happy until Moscow is glassed. Them getting their way is impossible though. Glenn will have to battle them, his allies abroad and the Soviets in getting everything the US wants/needs. I'm not so knowledgeable on economic matters such as these. The USSR is stuffed yes when it comes to international trade and has its own issues notwithstanding them. How that all plays in, I haven't - and should have - put enough consideration into. The economic pain the eda and allies can apply will be large. If the Soviets balk too much a the negotiating table, they can easily be shut out of the world markets or taxed heavily on their purchases. The tax option would be particularly compelling for the allies and eda because the funds can be used to pay reparations for war damage. Well with the tax thing, that is an idea I hadn't considered! The Soviets would still love to sell Western Europe all that oil - what their war with the EDA all came from - but now the Middle East is being opened up. I guess the West could still sell the Soviets food, because they need that. Strategically, dealing with the USSR in the future this way makes real sense. However, passion and politics will come into things. That will be the issue both sides of the Atlantic. Why trade with them when we can let them starve? I would think that the United States just couldn't, politically, accept any peace treaty proposed by the Soviets. Just politically, the US public wouldn't accept the peace treaty unless it was proposed by the United States. You're correct in that. It wouldn't occur. The Soviets are in no position to force it and even if they were, the US would still refuse on a government level and domestically too. Moscow would get an F.U. At the moment it's not that the USA and EDA goverment except demanding the immediate retreat from their territory of the communist force there is not much that they can realistically ask, as the URSS had still his nuclear arsenal and cheap talk aside nobody want to cage them in a corner that will make the use of such weapon look reasonable. On the other side, Moscow can't ask anything except let her troops retreat unharmed and an official/unofficial agreement to not attack the other communist governament. For now both side will probably go to a return to a pre-war status quo, but it will be just apparent as the URSS had spent a lot of blood and treasure for basically nothing and there is always the open wound of China...so the overall situation will be very unstable and i expect that at least the east european communist goverment will try to leave the block and get on the good grace of the EDA and the allies (probably more on the first due to the high probability that the USA will be too occupied with his own problem at home and in the Pacific). You're correct. They can't force the Soviets to do everything. They have won, but not won enough yet to do everything they want to. Both sides will want a lot, ask for a lot and then get less than they wanted or otherwise have to fight to the very end to get that. No one in the West is going to want a status quo ante situation, especially not one of September 1984 (for the Allies) or February 1985 (for the EDA). The Soviets wouldn't mind that though! China remains something different from all of this but the Soviets have won there in military terms and everyone is treating it as a separate war. As to Eastern Europe... I'm thinking on that. Everyone will have ideas as to how that will turn out and those will be in opposition to those of each other. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Dec 29, 2018 1:51:29 GMT
I agree that as much as the public would like to see the total defeat of the USSR, with nukes, that is impossible. But the story so far seems to have set out the sketch of a peace treaty. In exchange for the allies and eda to not press home a coming epic defeat of the USSR, Moscow will betray all of their Western Hemisphere allies (giving the US free reign to rage against the Cubans and others) and betray North Korea (allowing reunification). The eda and allies will allow the Soviets to “keep China” to save face. Former Soviet allies in Eastern Europe and the Middle East will seek propection from the eda with the Soviets cowed. You're spot on with most of that in relation to my line of thinking on the matter. However, the Warsaw Pact countries are not former allies of Moscow and the USSR will want to keep them while the regimes won't want to see everything they have gone (and their lives too). The British had a tiny footprint on East German soil and the Yugoslavians hold a very small bit of Hungary. There are no large revolts - protests were put down - and the regimes will fight to the end in addition to Moscow not wanting to lose what they see as 'always theirs' here. I have a feeling that while the armistice is in Effect, everybody is still preparing for a new offensive the moment it runs out or negotiations fail. As for peace talk, I speculate that the West has a feeling the Soviet Union is weak (or else they would be asking for a cease fire) and Will begin With high demands that can then be negotiated Down to allow Moscow to save face. I think they Will ask for: - Withdrawel of all Soviet troops from occupied Territory within a set time frame. - war reparations and an official apology. - Allow East Germany to unite With West Germany. - that referendumns, monitored by neatral Third parties, are held in Warzawa Pact members to determine if the country want to become independent or stay With the Soviet Union. - hand over part of its nuclear stockpile for dismanteling by a neatral Third party. - Hand over the four Kuril Islands Japan lays claim to. - Allow North Korea to be conquered by South Korea and support the establishment of an unified Korean state. That waiting for renewed fighting will occur though once things stop, the longer that occurs the harder it will be to start once again. Those are pretty reasonable demands for the West to make as an opening move. The Soviets will have their opening position too. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Dec 29, 2018 1:54:04 GMT
(328)
Mid-April 1985:
Mossad still had their man inside the highest ranks of the KGB. The spy for Israel – codenamed Hazelnut – didn’t have the access to Kryuchkov to give forewarning of what was coming with the change in leadership at the top in Moscow. Even if he had, his handlers didn’t have real-time access to him where they could just drop by for a chat at any moment. Furthermore, everything happened so fast too. Once it became clear that Gromyko was in-charge, Hazelnut was able to point to the direct hand that the KGB had in everything and was able to reveal the fate of Romanov too. As to Vorotnikov… he wouldn’t discover that information for many weeks. Immense pressure came upon him to provide his handlers with further information. They were under pressure from back home as Israel was being harried by the Americans. To ask too many questions and to look at too many documents would cost him his life though. Oh, in addition, it would also mean a complete loss of the information which he was supplying as well.
Still the agent was pushed. Israel itself wanted him to find out more because they would use what he could provide to leverage their relationship with the United States in both the immediate term and the future too. Hazelnut couldn’t find out what exactly was wanted in terms of the precise reason why the Soviets were pulling out of the war and how they were going to go about negotiating their position. He did manage to uncover other things while risking everything digging – such as discovering the double bluff that the KGB was playing with the Americans over a supposed defector who they called Peppermint – though not what was sought from those from abroad. Israel and the Americans both wanted a window into the inner thinking of the Soviet leadership as it sought to end the war. Neither would get that and thus the Americans played the game that they did without being able to read the other guy’s cards.
Sometimes, life was just fair like that.
Once the ceasefire offer was made, and ahead of the outcome of that, instructions came from Moscow for a lot of ‘housecleaning’ to be made worldwide. The Soviet Union needed to protect its interests in all the many forms that those were. This would result in the deaths of many people as well as certain acts of destruction and the physical burying of things so that they wouldn’t be found.
In the mountains of north-central Mexico, up in the Sierra Madre Oriental range, the Soviet’s Strategic Rocket Forces had their SS-20 Sabre missiles there. The road-mobile launchers and assorted support vehicles were not going to be heading home. Nuclear warheads were removed first before every single vehicle was sent tumbling over several steep cliffs from long winding roads above. The destruction caused was complete and to many of those watching, such sights were extremely satisfying to see. Who wouldn’t enjoy smashing complicated pieces of equipment in such a way? Helicopters had first flown away the warheads before they would later be taken by aircraft first south deeper into Central America and then, hopefully, eventually home. Elsewhere across the Western Hemisphere, other stocks of weapons of mass destruction were on the move. Nuclear, chemical and biological (the latter not used in this war but available to be) warheads and dispensers were taken away to hidden places in the rear areas all to be later taken back to the Soviet Union too. As was the case with those missiles destroyed in Mexico, the associated weaponry which went with these actual warheads themselves was destroyed in-place. Removing it was too difficult and there was no way that it was going to be left behind. Explosives were used where there were no step cliffs; elsewhere, bits and pieces were dumped in river estuaries or even the sea.
Firing squads were busy. Those involved in the waves of killing were all unaware of what was going on and had no idea of the bigger picture. Orders came for the urgent shootings to take place of all sorts of people throughout the Western Hemisphere but also at selected places elsewhere in the world too. These were people whom the Soviet Union didn’t want to see survive the outcome of the war for a variety of reasons. Taking them away was considered but that process was difficult and fraught with the danger of things going wrong. It was easier to shoot people because the dead can tell no tales. Where possible, the bodies of the dead were disposed of by burning them or burying them. The dead included (but wasn’t limited to) the entire group of the KGB-controlled Peace Committee in El Paso – all of those Americans there either after being kidnapped, tricked or just stupid where they had been fulfilling Soviet propaganda – and others such as Mexican nationals with close ties to the Soviets, operatives of friendly intelligence services co-opted to do Soviet bidding (this was in the main on occupied bits of West German and Austrian soil) and high-value POWs held who could reveal what they’d been forced to talk about while in captivity. Documents were burnt and destruction was done to audio & video recordings of GRU and KGB activities during the war. Things were missed during this all and mistakes were made. Nonetheless, the people aspects of this housecleaning was pretty damn effective.
As the shootings occurred, the frame-up began too. There was to be evidence left behind in some cases to point to these things being done at earlier times and also by others too: namely the Cubans, the Guatemalans, the Nicaraguans, the Mexicans and the East Germans (the latter in Europe). Where some Soviet personnel were supposedly identified in other actions, these people were all conveniently dead. Overall, this seemed like a good idea from the Soviets point of view. ‘It wasn’t us, it was them’ could have worked if it hadn’t been so thorough and complete. Anyone looking at all of the deaths and disappearances would have to be stupid to fall for what was presented before them. It was almost as if the GRU and the KGB were staffed by good people all concerned with not violating any of the rules of law while in comparison, those other organisations manned by their allies, all of which followed the Soviet lead on every other matter, decided to do such things all by themselves just in the manner that their big brothers would have. Only a fool would fall for all of this baloney…
Evacuations were made from certain places of key people who were far from Soviet shores. Not everyone could be pulled away to safety from possible captivity though. Shooting such people was an option considered yet not chosen. Instead, long-established procedures were followed to disguise the identities of such people. At other points in the war the Soviets had suffered reverses and lost people they didn’t want to: this time they were prepared for that. Identification papers and cover stories pre-issued were ordered to be used. All of a sudden, GRU and KGB officers, plus many military officers & technical personnel in specialist fields, vanished into the wind; there were suddenly a lot more ‘boring’ logistical staffers, artillerymen and admin personnel.
***
The new Soviet leadership sent it’s ceasefire offers to both the Americans and the French with the intention of having each negotiate those on behalf of their respective alliances. There had been some thinking, suggested by others on the Politburo, that there be further offers made to countries such as Britain, Japan and West Germany as well to break open both the Allies and the EDA. This was rejected. Maybe it would work out yet there was the concern that it could backfire too. The problem of dealing with the wishes of many other nations would thus be put on the United States and France to attend to rather than the Soviet Union. Let them deal with the petty worries of such countries, the Politburo decided, while we concentrate on the big picture.
That big picture was for the Soviet Union to bring two of the three the wars it was fighting to a close. The China War was nearly won and would continue, but the conflicts with the Allies and the EDA were lost. Vorotnikov and Romanov had refused to accept that and spoke only of ‘reverses’ suffered, all which they had intended to correct by the use of a massive strategic nuclear attack. The rest of the Politburo had realised the truth though in the fact that those supposed reverses were real defeats.
The Americans were on their way to liberating the last bits of their own nation and were also already inside Mexico after destroying much of the rest of that country in that massive nuclear strike last month.
The Allies had won effective control of the North Atlantic.
The EDA had eliminated the Soviet presence in Sweden, stopped the invasions of West Germany & Austria cold and joined with the Yugoslavians to provide Moscow with what could only become a far-bigger war in the Balkans.
Into that fight in Western Europe had come the British, returning to the Continent in strength after politics had forced them out beforehand; the Americans would arrive before the year was out too once they were done in the Western Hemisphere.
The Mediterranean was a graveyard for Soviet warships; nearby, the dictators of the Middle East were turning their backs on Moscow.
South Korea had been ridden of both North Korean and Soviet forces; Japan had defended itself and the Pacific was an Allied lake.
All of that had occurred already and things were only going to get worse everywhere the Soviet Union was fighting both alliances. At home the economy was on the brink of collapse now and there were absences at a huge scale among the country’s military forces were reservists openly defied their mobilisation orders. Protests, mutinies and rebellions were surely next. To add to all of this, nuclear exchanges had taken place with the Americans. The British and the French had their own nuclear arsenals cocked and loaded, all with Soviet targets locked-in.
If it wasn’t nuclear war that would bring them all down, then it would be troubles at home soon enough and a loss of their ‘core Empire’ cough fraternal allies cough in the form of Eastern Europe and Iran & Afghanistan along with losing everything they had just won in China. If that meant the loss of disposable allies elsewhere in the world, then so be in. The humiliation would have to be suffered for the loss of such foreign wars yet the case would be made domestically and across the alliances which they would retain that they might not have won but they hadn’t lost either. That all could only be achieved if these conflicts with the Allies and the EDA were brought to a close now.
A ceasefire followed by an armistice was therefore what the Politburo had decided to see done. They told the Americans and the French when Soviet and Soviet-led forces would stop fighting and invited them to have their forces stand down as well. Following the ceasefire, there would be a retention of the right for self-defence yet no more conflict was sought. What was asked for beyond that was for talks to take place to turn the ceasefire into something secure in terms of no more fighting, that being an armistice. Mention was made of seeing to it that prisoners would be exchanged, the civilians would be given aid and there could be a stand down from the ‘dangers’ of further nuclear conflict.
This was all put on the table in two identical messages to both New York and Paris. There was no talk though of any form of surrender or any upcoming peace agreements in those. However, the Politburo was thinking of such things for the future. Many of their military forces aboard, along with those of their allies which they would have to force into it, would eventually have to surrender: hence those killings and suchlike. Moscow understood that the two alliances in the West would try to impose their will on the Soviet Union in response to domestic politics yet believed that these would be abandoned eventually. A strategy had been agreed where supposed red lines would be drawn in talks with the Allies and the EDA and then those would be backed away from in the form of concessions made: in return, reasonable things would be asked for across the table. Soviet diplomats would negotiate with the Allies and the EDA from a position of strength, turning each bloc – not the individual parts of each – against each other if necessary. They could always play upon wartime divisions between the two of them should the situation call for that.
Responses came to the ceasefire offers made.
The Americans provided the Soviets with far more difficulties than the French did. The Allies spoke of immediate Soviet withdrawals from occupied territories and surrenders in others after any ceasefire would take place. All parts of occupied American soil, Belize, Caribbean islands belonging to Britain & the United States, the Azores, Iceland and northern Norway were all at once to be handed over to them with Soviet and Soviet-allied forces inside surrendering along with all of their equipment too. Soviet forces were also to leave Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, South Yemen, Vietnam and North Korea as well as to retreat from the world’s oceans. Demands were made for POWs held to be at once handed over included those that the Allies said were held on other territory: i.e. on Cuba, inside Eastern Europe and within the Soviet Union too. This was the first response which came. Moscow replied asking for confirmation that the Allies were going to respect the ceasefire which they had called without commenting on these demands which came. The Americans simply repeated themselves. Such an impasse was broken by Gromyko having an address to Glenn made over the Hot-Line where he asked him whether keeping fighting when the nuclear situation was so tense was worthwhile for either of them? Couldn’t they just stop fighting? He said that these matters which the Allies demanded could and would be addressed but only once the ceasefire had come into place. Armistice talks could begin straight away afterwards, at a time and venue of the American’s choosing… but the ceasefire had to come first. There was a pause in communications coming back. Several hours passed. The Americans were clearly talking to their allies. Finally, there came a message confirming that the Allies would follow the Soviets into a ceasefire agreement. Glenn signed off that message by stating that there was going to be no withdrawal from those conditions – and they were far from exclusive too – when it came to armistice talks though.
Paris did the same as the United States did in at once responding to Soviet entrees with a long list of demands. They wanted surrenders of forces and withdrawals of others. This covered Bornholm, bits of West Germany, Austria and Yugoslavia as priorities in addition to Crete, Finland and the Caribbean as well. Furthermore, the Western Europeans spoke of handing over named people, paying financial reparations and their vision of a future for Eastern Europe: with the latter, there was quite the demand for the future of the two Germanies that they made there. The EDA put the Allies to shame in having a larger list of immediate, on-hand demands ready to go with urgent expediency! Along with all of this, the French stated that yes, they were open to armistice talks. They would decide when & where and they would inform the Soviet Union of the details of those once the ceasefire was shown to be working.
The ceasefire was firmly agreed and there was general agreement on opening armistice talks afterwards. Messages from both sides went out to their respective forces in the field that a cessation of fighting would commence. Caveats to those were sent where self-defence was authorised and how to approach blatant violations of a ceasefire. Then the moment came, at different times around the world, yet all at the same time too.
The fighting was over.
Now came the hard part: each side making sure that it wasn’t going to restart while also getting everything that they wanted from the fallout of the wars which they had taken part in.
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jfoxx
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Post by jfoxx on Dec 29, 2018 3:44:37 GMT
The Soviets can demand all they want, but they are at the economic mercy of the developed world and if the Soviets balk at the terms, the fees charged on all Soviet and Soviet allied international transactions would and should be exorbitant.
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sandyman
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Post by sandyman on Dec 29, 2018 11:46:02 GMT
A great update as usual it will be interesting to see what happens with China and even more so what will happen to the security council seat .
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crackpot
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Post by crackpot on Dec 29, 2018 14:01:38 GMT
A great update as usual it will be interesting to see what happens with China and even more so what will happen to the security council seat . I can’t imagine the UN surviving in its current form after this. A permanent member of the Security Council waged near total war on the other four, utterly destroying one. So whether that is simply a restructured Secuity Council, a changed charter or an new organization entirely, I’m interested to see where James goes with this. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Dec 29, 2018 20:21:12 GMT
The Soviets can demand all they want, but they are at the economic mercy of the developed world and if the Soviets balk at the terms, the fees charged on all Soviet and Soviet allied international transactions would and should be exorbitant. You can bet they will have demands. They will also be getting a lot of the middle-finger treatment. A great update as usual it will be interesting to see what happens with China and even more so what will happen to the security council seat . Thank you. Something which I hadn't, and should have, thought of... I can’t imagine the UN surviving in its current form after this. A permanent member of the Security Council waged near total war on the other four, utterly destroying one. So whether that is simply a restructured Secuity Council, a changed charter or an new organization entirely, I’m interested to see where James goes with this. Something else I hadn't considered! More for the epilogue though. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Dec 29, 2018 20:23:59 GMT
(329)
Mid-April 1985:
The ceasefire brought about celebrations around the world, in the main through the countries of the West.
It was over!
No one else had to die and there would be no nuclear apocalypse. Who wouldn’t want to celebrate such a thing? Across the frontlines, men in uniform understood what was coming as the slowdown in the fighting occurred. They were then informed that there was a ceasefire and the war was officially still ongoing… but they heard what they wanted to hear and saw what they did with their own eyes.
It was over!
Away from the frontlines, word got out everywhere else. Some governments tried to keep a lid on things but others did no such thing. The war was over! There was drinking, dancing and horizontal romance aplenty.
It was over!
Yet it really wasn’t. A ceasefire meant just that: there was a cessation in fighting. Nothing beyond that had been agreed, nothing at all.
The outpouring of relief when the ceasefire occurred and as word spread as fast and as far as it did was something that many people afterwards would regret. Politicians and military officers alike hadn’t wanted to see the scenes which occurred, especially with some of the more outrageous things which took place. Discipline in some military units went right out of the window where men at once wanted to go home: this was almost exclusively among wartime conscripts though where it was among others, pre-war serving soldiers, that was rather troubling. The civilian scenes were something else too. The celebrations got a bit out of hand in places. There was an immediate feeling afterwards that everything had been sacrificed for the war effort on the home front had to come to an end too: i.e. right now. Official positions were that at any moment the ceasefire could breakdown or that pending armistice talks could fail to achieve the necessary results leading to a return to fighting. That wasn’t going to be easy to do – not impossible; just hard to redo – with the general mood of so many once they heard about the ceasefire.
None of this had been foreseen in terms of major occurrence and the scale of that.
It was more than a day late before the ceasefire came into effect in Yugoslavia and it didn’t affect neither the fighting on the Korean Peninsula nor that in China at all. The Yugoslavian issue was resolved by Paris making concessions to Belgrade as to how involved Yugoslavia would be in the joint EDA negotiations to reach a final settlement to the war which they had taken part in. This displeased other Western European nations – the Low Countries and West Germany in particular –, yet Yugoslavia got away with it. As to North Korea, Kim Jong-il paid no attention to what Gromyko said. North Korea kept on shelling Allied forces inside & beyond the DMZ and so they returned fire: the situation on the ground there was already a stalemate in terms of movement of the frontlines and overall this didn’t necessarily effect the general Allied position on how it would deal with the Soviets post-ceasefire considering it was only the North Koreans, not anyone else, involved in that. As to the China War… that was an entirely separate matter considering the government of the People’s Republic of China was no more.
Other fighting took place post-ceasefire though. In South Texas, US Army forces there clashed with troops no longer representing to the fallen regime of Revolutionary Mexico and not listening to the Soviets either. Messages over the Hot-Line from Moscow said that the Soviet Union was ‘struggling’ with the issue of Revolutionary Mexico. That ambiguity was something that the United States responded to by telling the Soviets that they would act to ‘correct’ matters there. Stormin’ Norman and his US V Corps, joined by elements of the US Sixteenth Air Force, received specific orders to make that correction. In a smaller action to the north of San Antonio in the high ground there and then in a far larger series of engagements west and especially south of that recently-liberated city, they undertook an offensive. From Del Rio all the way downstream to Brownsville, the Rio Grande was reached and everything in between taken. Cuban and Soviet forces stepped aside and ended up surrounded though not disarmed; Mexican forces in the way faced the full might of the United States here and were whipped out. This put everyone involved in a difficult situation but it was resolved in under twenty-four hours. Not many prisoners were taken in this and post-war accusations would be made at the level of American brutality shown when on the attack against such a weak opponent. Questions would be asked as to whether what was done was justified from a military point of view from others who cared not for the Mexican lives lost but in what was done here. All such comments were ignored in the rush to liberate that region and smash apart such an opponent. Schwarzkopf got his wish as his men reached the Rio Grande and he would firmly secure his place in history as ‘liberator of Texas’.
Over the Rio Grande, where the Americans were fighting in north-western Mexico, the US Marines there also engaged Revolutionary Mexico troops when the 1st Marine Division declared it had come under attack. This did happen: there was no central command for their opponents to listen to so they fought on. The retaliation for ‘breaking the ceasefire’ was quite something and allowed for the Americans to take over an extremely large portion of territory there too. Up in the far north of Norway, several instances of ceasefire violations took place where Norwegian irregulars took the opportunity to attack isolated Soviet garrisons and there came retaliations to these. News of the ceasefire had been broadcast but there were standing orders for Norwegians long-trained to fight a guerrilla war to ignore such things, especially if they considered such things to be enemy lies. Their country was occupied, the armed invaders were in front of them and this was a fight which they would continue to keep having. There was no easy solution to this issue. Oslo reacted strongly to what they saw as hesitancy from London and New York in how they responded where they were more focused on arrangements underway to start armistice talks. Norwegian innocents were caught up in the exchanges of gunfire where Oslo considered that the Soviets were breaking the ceasefire. More broadcasts were made into occupied territory from Allied sources – the Soviets lifted electronic jamming and also allowed unarmed aircraft to make leaflet drops too – but it carried on. Such messages and news were all treated, as it was supposed to be, as lies from the occupier. This put pressure on the whole Allied negotiating approach to hurry up. Moreover, waves of defections and desertions occurred across the world among Soviet-aligned forces in the field yet too behind the lines. Instances of shooting took place which oftentimes occurred right near the frozen frontlines. None of this was an act of breaking the ceasefire yet it occurred right within the faces of the Allies and the EDA and they had to hold back from doing anything about it.
Other occurrences saw close instances of near-shooting following the ceasefire coming into effect. There were Soviet transport aircraft flying from out of occupied parts of the United States – quite the shrunken area – and also from Mexico, central America and Cuba. It was the same in Austria with aircraft while elsewhere on parts of EDA soil under their control they made helicopter flights or ran convoys of trucks back eastwards. There were many people in Western governments and in uniform who wanted to shoot those aircraft down and bomb those trucks. The ceasefire was only about stopping fighting though: it didn’t demand that no one was allowed to do anything in their rear areas. The Allies and the EDA were busy doing the same thing where they shunted military forces around without the immediate danger of air & missile strikes. In addition to all of this, there came surrenders made from cut-off forces caught behind the lines and on the verge of collapse when the ceasefire had come into effect. Many Guatemalans caught in Arizona, Soviet naval crews on damaged ships within the eastern Med. and East Germans surrounded while inside Thüringen gave themselves up. These were groups of military personnel in desperate states who had heard the ceasefire orders sent and were told to stay in-place. They found this impossible to do for a variety of reasons (the Guatemalans were being killed by guerrillas, the seamen were on sinking ships and the East German Grenztruppen were being chased by a raging series of wildfires) and so they surrendered. Allied and EDA forces on the ground accepted those surrenders though not in an official capacity in response to higher instructions that meant that legally, while in the state of a ceasefire, that couldn’t be accepted. This mess was a further distraction for those involved in the preparations for armistice talks.
Before the ceasefire came into effect, Mitterrand sent to Glenn a message on behalf of the EDA and to all members of the Allies an assurance that there would be no betrayal. Western Europe wouldn’t sell the Allies down the river and seek a settlement with the Soviets behind their backs. London forced a pause in a return message where the British Government – recalling what had happened back in September during misunderstandings made in haste – intervened to have what the Americans tell the French in response. Input was given to the reply from the British but also the Canadians and the Spanish too. This put noses out of joint in New York but there remained the unofficial position that Britain had that Glenn had really f***ed-up last year when talking to the French. When the reply was made, it was a response from the Allies. The same assurance was given: there would be no sell-out of the EDA from the Allies. Each had their own interests, the message continued, and those would be respected. It was anticipated that the Soviets would try to divide them and thus this was sought to be pre-emptied by such assurances given both ways.
Each alliance had previously agreed within on that war aims and what they would have liked to see once the conflict came to an end. Drawing those up was a matter of politics and diplomacy. It was done during times when they were engaged in warfare and with no idea of how or when the wars which they were fighting would come to an end. This meant the Allies and the EDA had changing positions due to ongoing events. A major element of complication came with regard to the direct British-EDA military cooperation on the battlefields of northern West Germany following the arrival of the British-Spanish-Irish force there which had arrived late but made quite the impact when doing so. When the Soviets suddenly called for a ceasefire, the French at once sent to them their standing position on how they saw an end to the war coming with what the EDA had at that point as its post-war aims. The Allies took their time in this, seeking to have theirs more up to date. The Soviets had replied to each with calls for armistice talks to take place and refused to discuss these ahead of any ceasefire.
Both the Allies and the EDA were each waiting for the Soviets to make demands of their own and they were going to shoot those down. They had won this war and the winners of a war decide how it will all end, not the losers. While it was considered that the Soviets might not see themselves as losers by some of those within each Western alliance, the general feeling was that the Soviets had lost and thus would receive victor’s justice. The Soviets weren’t on their knees and they retained their nuclear arsenals, so there was a limit on how far they could be pushed, but they had lost this war and admitted that by requesting that ceasefire and armistice talks. They would be pushed as far as possible. To the armistice talks, the Allies and the EDA would bring their full list of demands for the post-war world. They had opening positions which they were willing to step back from but red lines too…
…just as the Soviets did.
Arrangements for armistice talks took place while messages were exchanged due to ceasefire violations. The Soviets made it clear during those that they would speak for all members of their alliance apart from Revolutionary Mexico and North Korea. Gromyko told the two alliances he was engaged in distant communication with that neither of them were ‘under control’ yet everyone else was. His representatives would speak for their country and twenty-two more too. As to face-to-face talks between his representatives and those of the West, Gromyko requested that just one set of armistice talks occur where both the Allies and the EDA were present.
This was something shot down. Neither would go for that. They refused to do so and from New York and Paris there also came replies to the Soviets that it was they, not Moscow, who would decide when and where armistice talks would occur.
Agreeing between themselves first before presenting this to Moscow, the two alliances informed Gromyko of the specifics of those talks. There would be simultaneous meetings in both New York (for the Allies) and Luxembourg (for the EDA) starting April 16th to take place with those whom Gromyko wished to send to each. There would be no talks on neutral territory – Geneva, Helsinki, Jamaica or San Jose (the capital of neutral Costa Rica) – as the Soviets had made requests to see done. Instead, the Soviets would come to the territory of the victorious West to talk.
Gromyko – for so long known as Mister Nyet – said ‘da’ instead.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Dec 29, 2018 20:25:49 GMT
Mention is made above of the 22 countries, plus themselves, which the Soviets say that they will speak for in armistice talks.
I made that list - then two more - for myself but I thought I might as well post it. Note all those People's Republics in the Caribbean!
Socialist Alliance
Soviet Union
Cuba, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama
Antigua People’s Republic, Barbados People’s Republic, St. Kitts People’s Republic, St. Lucia People’s Republic, St. Vincent People’s Republic
Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland
Afghanistan, Iran, Mongolia, South Yemen, Vietnam
Allies
Britain, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Spain, United States
Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Portugal
Belize, Chile, Paraguay
Australia, Brunei, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore
EDA
France, Italy, West Germany, Yugoslavia
Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden
Algeria, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Gabon, Ivory Coast, Malta, Morocco, Senegal, Tunisia
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 29, 2018 20:38:13 GMT
(329)Mid-April 1985: The ceasefire brought about celebrations around the world, in the main through the countries of the West. It was over! No one else had to die and there would be no nuclear apocalypse. Who wouldn’t want to celebrate such a thing? Across the frontlines, men in uniform understood what was coming as the slowdown in the fighting occurred. They were then informed that there was a ceasefire and the war was officially still ongoing… but they heard what they wanted to hear and saw what they did with their own eyes. It was over! Away from the frontlines, word got out everywhere else. Some governments tried to keep a lid on things but others did no such thing. The war was over! There was drinking, dancing and horizontal romance aplenty. It was over! Yet it really wasn’t. A ceasefire meant just that: there was a cessation in fighting. Nothing beyond that had been agreed, nothing at all. The outpouring of relief when the ceasefire occurred and as word spread as fast and as far as it did was something that many people afterwards would regret. Politicians and military officers alike hadn’t wanted to see the scenes which occurred, especially with some of the more outrageous things which took place. Discipline in some military units went right out of the window where men at once wanted to go home: this was almost exclusively among wartime conscripts though where it was among others, pre-war serving soldiers, that was rather troubling. The civilian scenes were something else too. The celebrations got a bit out of hand in places. There was an immediate feeling afterwards that everything had been sacrificed for the war effort on the home front had to come to an end too: i.e. right now. Official positions were that at any moment the ceasefire could breakdown or that pending armistice talks could fail to achieve the necessary results leading to a return to fighting. That wasn’t going to be easy to do – not impossible; just hard to redo – with the general mood of so many once they heard about the ceasefire. None of this had been foreseen in terms of major occurrence and the scale of that. It was more than a day late before the ceasefire came into effect in Yugoslavia and it didn’t affect neither the fighting on the Korean Peninsula nor that in China at all. The Yugoslavian issue was resolved by Paris making concessions to Belgrade as to how involved Yugoslavia would be in the joint EDA negotiations to reach a final settlement to the war which they had taken part in. This displeased other Western European nations – the Low Countries and West Germany in particular –, yet Yugoslavia got away with it. As to North Korea, Kim Jong-il paid no attention to what Gromyko said. North Korea kept on shelling Allied forces inside & beyond the DMZ and so they returned fire: the situation on the ground there was already a stalemate in terms of movement of the frontlines and overall this didn’t necessarily effect the general Allied position on how it would deal with the Soviets post-ceasefire considering it was only the North Koreans, not anyone else, involved in that. As to the China War… that was an entirely separate matter considering the government of the People’s Republic of China was no more. Other fighting took place post-ceasefire though. In South Texas, US Army forces there clashed with troops no longer representing to the fallen regime of Revolutionary Mexico and not listening to the Soviets either. Messages over the Hot-Line from Moscow said that the Soviet Union was ‘struggling’ with the issue of Revolutionary Mexico. That ambiguity was something that the United States responded to by telling the Soviets that they would act to ‘correct’ matters there. Stormin’ Norman and his US V Corps, joined by elements of the US Sixteenth Air Force, received specific orders to make that correction. In a smaller action to the north of San Antonio in the high ground there and then in a far larger series of engagements west and especially south of that recently-liberated city, they undertook an offensive. From Del Rio all the way downstream to Brownsville, the Rio Grande was reached and everything in between taken. Cuban and Soviet forces stepped aside and ended up surrounded though not disarmed; Mexican forces in the way faced the full might of the United States here and were whipped out. This put everyone involved in a difficult situation but it was resolved in under twenty-four hours. Not many prisoners were taken in this and post-war accusations would be made at the level of American brutality shown when on the attack against such a weak opponent. Questions would be asked as to whether what was done was justified from a military point of view from others who cared not for the Mexican lives lost but in what was done here. All such comments were ignored in the rush to liberate that region and smash apart such an opponent. Schwarzkopf got his wish as his men reached the Rio Grande and he would firmly secure his place in history as ‘liberator of Texas’. Over the Rio Grande, where the Americans were fighting in north-western Mexico, the US Marines there also engaged Revolutionary Mexico troops when the 1st Marine Division declared it had come under attack. This did happen: there was no central command for their opponents to listen to so they fought on. The retaliation for ‘breaking the ceasefire’ was quite something and allowed for the Americans to take over an extremely large portion of territory there too. Up in the far north of Norway, several instances of ceasefire violations took place where Norwegian irregulars took the opportunity to attack isolated Soviet garrisons and there came retaliations to these. News of the ceasefire had been broadcast but there were standing orders for Norwegians long-trained to fight a guerrilla war to ignore such things, especially if they considered such things to be enemy lies. Their country was occupied, the armed invaders were in front of them and this was a fight which they would continue to keep having. There was no easy solution to this issue. Oslo reacted strongly to what they saw as hesitancy from London and New York in how they responded where they were more focused on arrangements underway to start armistice talks. Norwegian innocents were caught up in the exchanges of gunfire where Oslo considered that the Soviets were breaking the ceasefire. More broadcasts were made into occupied territory from Allied sources – the Soviets lifted electronic jamming and also allowed unarmed aircraft to make leaflet drops too – but it carried on. Such messages and news were all treated, as it was supposed to be, as lies from the occupier. This put pressure on the whole Allied negotiating approach to hurry up. Moreover, waves of defections and desertions occurred across the world among Soviet-aligned forces in the field yet too behind the lines. Instances of shooting took place which oftentimes occurred right near the frozen frontlines. None of this was an act of breaking the ceasefire yet it occurred right within the faces of the Allies and the EDA and they had to hold back from doing anything about it. Other occurrences saw close instances of near-shooting following the ceasefire coming into effect. There were Soviet transport aircraft flying from out of occupied parts of the United States – quite the shrunken area – and also from Mexico, central America and Cuba. It was the same in Austria with aircraft while elsewhere on parts of EDA soil under their control they made helicopter flights or ran convoys of trucks back eastwards. There were many people in Western governments and in uniform who wanted to shoot those aircraft down and bomb those trucks. The ceasefire was only about stopping fighting though: it didn’t demand that no one was allowed to do anything in their rear areas. The Allies and the EDA were busy doing the same thing where they shunted military forces around without the immediate danger of air & missile strikes. In addition to all of this, there came surrenders made from cut-off forces caught behind the lines and on the verge of collapse when the ceasefire had come into effect. Many Guatemalans caught in Arizona, Soviet naval crews on damaged ships within the eastern Med. and East Germans surrounded while inside Thüringen gave themselves up. These were groups of military personnel in desperate states who had heard the ceasefire orders sent and were told to stay in-place. They found this impossible to do for a variety of reasons (the Guatemalans were being killed by guerrillas, the seamen were on sinking ships and the East German Grenztruppen were being chased by a raging series of wildfires) and so they surrendered. Allied and EDA forces on the ground accepted those surrenders though not in an official capacity in response to higher instructions that meant that legally, while in the state of a ceasefire, that couldn’t be accepted. This mess was a further distraction for those involved in the preparations for armistice talks. Before the ceasefire came into effect, Mitterrand sent to Glenn a message on behalf of the EDA and to all members of the Allies an assurance that there would be no betrayal. Western Europe wouldn’t sell the Allies down the river and seek a settlement with the Soviets behind their backs. London forced a pause in a return message where the British Government – recalling what had happened back in September during misunderstandings made in haste – intervened to have what the Americans tell the French in response. Input was given to the reply from the British but also the Canadians and the Spanish too. This put noses out of joint in New York but there remained the unofficial position that Britain had that Glenn had really f***ed-up last year when talking to the French. When the reply was made, it was a response from the Allies. The same assurance was given: there would be no sell-out of the EDA from the Allies. Each had their own interests, the message continued, and those would be respected. It was anticipated that the Soviets would try to divide them and thus this was sought to be pre-emptied by such assurances given both ways. Each alliance had previously agreed within on that war aims and what they would have liked to see once the conflict came to an end. Drawing those up was a matter of politics and diplomacy. It was done during times when they were engaged in warfare and with no idea of how or when the wars which they were fighting would come to an end. This meant the Allies and the EDA had changing positions due to ongoing events. A major element of complication came with regard to the direct British-EDA military cooperation on the battlefields of northern West Germany following the arrival of the British-Spanish-Irish force there which had arrived late but made quite the impact when doing so. When the Soviets suddenly called for a ceasefire, the French at once sent to them their standing position on how they saw an end to the war coming with what the EDA had at that point as its post-war aims. The Allies took their time in this, seeking to have theirs more up to date. The Soviets had replied to each with calls for armistice talks to take place and refused to discuss these ahead of any ceasefire. Both the Allies and the EDA were each waiting for the Soviets to make demands of their own and they were going to shoot those down. They had won this war and the winners of a war decide how it will all end, not the losers. While it was considered that the Soviets might not see themselves as losers by some of those within each Western alliance, the general feeling was that the Soviets had lost and thus would receive victor’s justice. The Soviets weren’t on their knees and they retained their nuclear arsenals, so there was a limit on how far they could be pushed, but they had lost this war and admitted that by requesting that ceasefire and armistice talks. They would be pushed as far as possible. To the armistice talks, the Allies and the EDA would bring their full list of demands for the post-war world. They had opening positions which they were willing to step back from but red lines too… …just as the Soviets did. Arrangements for armistice talks took place while messages were exchanged due to ceasefire violations. The Soviets made it clear during those that they would speak for all members of their alliance apart from Revolutionary Mexico and North Korea. Gromyko told the two alliances he was engaged in distant communication with that neither of them were ‘under control’ yet everyone else was. His representatives would speak for their country and twenty-two more too. As to face-to-face talks between his representatives and those of the West, Gromyko requested that just one set of armistice talks occur where both the Allies and the EDA were present. This was something shot down. Neither would go for that. They refused to do so and from New York and Paris there also came replies to the Soviets that it was they, not Moscow, who would decide when and where armistice talks would occur. Agreeing between themselves first before presenting this to Moscow, the two alliances informed Gromyko of the specifics of those talks. There would be simultaneous meetings in both New York (for the Allies) and Luxembourg (for the EDA) starting April 16th to take place with those whom Gromyko wished to send to each. There would be no talks on neutral territory – Geneva, Helsinki, Jamaica or San Jose (the capital of neutral Costa Rica) – as the Soviets had made requests to see done. Instead, the Soviets would come to the territory of the victorious West to talk. Gromyko – for so long known as Mister Nyet – said ‘ da’ instead. First great update James G, second, the war has ended, now the talking about peace begins. |
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dunois
Petty Officer 2nd Class
Posts: 42
Likes: 42
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Post by dunois on Dec 29, 2018 21:27:41 GMT
Good updates James! I am surprised that the Soviets were able to advance so far and so deep into China. The logistics of supplying their forces 1,000s of km away from their borders and of occupying a territory populated by hundred of millions of people are simply too horrendous to contemplate. I honestly doubt that the Soviet firmly control large portions of the countryside outside of major supply routes and logistics hubs. Are local collaborating authorities in place to ease the strain of occupation? I can't imagine that the Soviet occupation is any gentle to be fair and I bet that millions of Chinese will be conscripted for labour and reconstruction duties in the Soviet Union. I think that the Soviet Union actually has a chance of surviving post-war, though it will need to withdraw from wider world affairs to focus on itself instead for some time. This might very well mean letting Eastern Europe go its own way, which would release ressources that could instead be refocused for internal development. I honestly don't know what the long-term plan with regards to China is. The wisest move would be to create puppet people's republics in Manchuria, Inner Mongolia and in Xinjiang. This could be very successful in the later case as the Soviet Union can portray itself as a "liberator" of the Uyghurs against the Chinese. The challenge for the Soviet leadership is to somehow spin the war as a victory or at least to strongly condemn the "folly" and "imperialism" of Vorotnikov and his precedessors. Large-scale purges reminiscent of Stalin are a given and a virage into hardline Stalinism is far from impossible. The Soviet Union survived WW2 despite taking tremendous losses, it might be able to do the same here while undergoing some form of reforms. Hardliners were not necessarily anti-reform, they just had different ideas of what and hwo to reform. The possible hunger problems can be solved by a combination of measures. Strict rationing is the first and most obvious one. The second one is to pillage China. Another one that's likely to be controversial could be to reform Soviet agriculture by increasing the size of private land plots and increase incentives for producing. The availability of Chinese "volunteer" labour coupled with perhaps available Ukrainian farm labour if Ukraine is truly condemned, also offers another possibility. A second Virgin Lands Campaign, this time focusing on southern and eastern Siberia. This could be tied in pretty nicely to the rebuilding of Vladivostok and Khabarovsk and even be spinned as a new "Eastern orientation" of the Soviet Union as opposed to a Western one as the Warsaw pact satellites are released. Agriculture is possible in Siberia if planned very carefully and if it focuses on cattle and livestock rather than growing large fields of crops. Southern Siberia is also fertile for growing grains and vegetables. Money and ressources will be a problem though if oil sales to the west are now impossible. Might focusing on internal consumption be part of the answer? Soviet citizens had money but nowhere to spend it apparently. |
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arrowiv
Petty Officer 2nd Class
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Post by arrowiv on Dec 29, 2018 21:27:59 GMT
Winning the peace would be the hard part. Of course, you will probably see hotheads in the US Congress and media screaming for a second Treaty of Versailles compete with stern conditions and reparations (no nukes, no bombers, no missiles, no nothing!), independence for the East European and Soviet republics, and even "Nuremburg Trials Mk.2"
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Post by lukedalton on Dec 29, 2018 23:02:06 GMT
Winning the peace would be the hard part. Of course, you will probably see hotheads in the US Congress and media screaming for a second Treaty of Versailles compete with stern conditions and reparations (no nukes, no bombers, no missiles, no nothing!), independence for the East European and Soviet republics, and even "Nuremburg Trials Mk.2"
The problem is that unlike WWI Germany, the Soviet Union had still enough nuclear weapon to transform the planet in an hellscape...so whatever they want, the leaders of the Allies and EDA will know that they can push too much, sure they will try but they will also know that will be more for internal consumption than a real move. Frankly there is the strong possibility that both side develop a 'stabbed in the back' and/or 'mutilated victory' myth as with all the sufference bring by the war, the peace treaty will never give the satisfaction deserved due to the nuclear weapon factor...and the fact that in any case and for the good that will bring, China is on Soviet hand.
The EDA main objective will be German reunification, as taking away East Germany from the Eastern Block improve immensely the strategic situation and eliminate the Fulda Gap, sure there will be people not really thrilled by that, but honestly WWIII as just being fought and the Soviet are still there, so they at least pretend to bury the past and accept a unfied Germany. Second, they will try to take away the east european nation from the soviet sphere, this will be more difficult as this will be a big no no for Moscow, even if later will be forced to do that due to the cost of keeping troops there and the postwar economic situation. The best that they can probably obtain is to transform Poland in a neutral/non affiliated state between EDA and URSS, but even this will be very hard; maybe some rettification of the borders like the passage of Stettin to Germany, Sopron to Austria and so on; nothing of epic, just to make the border more safe and give the impression to have obtained something...naturally this will bring a lot of forced relocation of people aka ethinic cleasing.
Finland will be probably also an important objective for EDA, they will try to bring her officially in the organization as the war demonstrated that at the moment the Soviet can simply pass through her unopposed, menacing the rest of Scandinavia; it's also probable that an abrogation of the Finnish-Soviet Treaty of 1948 and making Helsinky a true neutral will be more or less enough.
Greece will try to talk with the various allied/eda goverment try to get back on their good grace as her economy at the moment is on the verge of collapse and had bet on the wrong horse; more probably she will become some sort of associate of the EDA and Athen will receive the condition for such position...that will be not negotiable; while harsh nobody in western europe will like Papandreu and co. after their support of the URSS. Frankly a repeat of 1897 when an european commission took direct control of the greek economy to make her repay the big debt contracted is very possible.
Jugoslavia will be like Italy in WWI, will want a lot, probably too much and while Paris will be sympathetic, there is limit at what can agree, expecially if jeopardize the general settlement; plus for all his talk Belgrade will need the rest of Europe badly, even before the war her economy was in bad shape and the war really not helped. They will demand border rettification with everyone, DMZ...and maybe even put their eyes on Albania as a new member of the federation.
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