James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Oct 29, 2018 20:19:55 GMT
(275)
December 1984: Libya
The majority of the world’s communist and revolutionary socialist nations had long sent military officers, intelligence personnel and diplomats to the Soviet Union to study and undergo training there. Many of the world’s terrorists had too made the journey. All expenses paid trips weren’t for nothing though on either end. For developing nations inside or entering the Soviet sphere, they received back personnel who had learnt much during their time spread in the world’s leading communist nation. The Soviets proclaimed fraternal friendship and sought the prestige yet they also established personal contacts with those who came to their nation away from the spying eyes of their own countrymen back home. There was time to impress, woo and convert the visitors who came from across the globe.
Colonel Khalifa Belqasim Haftar was one of those who’d spent time inside the Soviet Union. Gaddafi had sent his fellow Libya military officer on that trip, Haftar being one of the original men who’d help depose King Idris back in 1969 alongside him. He was one of Gaddafi’s closest confidants. The KGB had targeted Haftar for one of their long-term manipulation schemes. He gave them information during his time in their country and once he returned to Libya. He did so for many motives, conflicting ones even, but he wasn’t forced to betray neither his country nor his leader. He saw his actions where he liaised with the KGB as only helping both. Gaddafi had appointed Haftar to command the Malta operation and Haftar had done as tasked: taken control of the island on time and perfectly according to the plan. Gifts and platitudes were delivered to Haftar from Gaddafi on behalf of the Libyan people but also (supposedly) the Maltese as well for how he had saved that little country from becoming a warzone by filling it with Libyan troops. At the end of November, Haftar had returned to Libya. Gaddafi tasked him with something else of great importance. That was for Haftar to oversee internal security for the secretive oil shipping to Western Europe via intermediaries. Gaddafi still believed that the Soviets wouldn’t find out though conversely believed too that if they did, they would understand. He wanted to make sure that he had control over the information about this though and so used the ‘trusted’ Haftar. What a mistake this was.
Within days, Haftar let the KGB know what was going on. He did so because he too feared that they would discover this and turn on Libya. By telling them before they found out by themselves, Haftar hoped to control what happened. He had no idea of the reaction in Moscow to the information he passed on. Tankers with Libyan oil supposed going to countries which the Soviet Union was not in a dispute with and trying to blackmail into accepting its own oil but were really bound for use in France and Italy (those who stood defiantly in Moscow’s way) through Swiss and Yugoslavian middlemen. Gaddafi was aiding the enemies of the Soviet Union. He was doing so just to enrich himself and keep his personal regime in power, not for any other reason than could be in any way understood if anyone in Moscow wanted to take the time to consider being reasonable. There was no mood to do that. Vorotnikov could have himself or used Gromyko to tell Gaddafi to stop this. That was what Haftar thought would be done. That wasn’t to be though. The KGB came back to him and offered him much. They knew he was an ambitious man and that he had dreams for himself as one day replacing Gaddafi should anything terrible befall the country’s leader. Haftar was told that something terrible was about to befall Gaddafi and that the Soviet Union would back him – fully – should he make that occur. Do it for Libya, do it for yourself. Haftar hesitated. He kept the KGB waiting for an answer for a week in early December. He spent time alone, with Gaddafi and among other Libyan military officers at the top of the regime. The KGB watchers lost track of him, themselves always trying to dodge Libyan official attention. In Moscow, Vorotnikov demanded to know if Haftar was going to do this. Was he or had he got cold feet? Or had he betrayed the scheme to Gaddafi and threw himself at the mercy of his leader? Would Haftar have to join Gaddafi in the grave which Vorotnikov intended to see the latter in?
Without meeting his handler personally, just passing on a coded message, Haftar launched a coup d’état to topple Gaddafi. Unlike the last time Libya’s regime was toppled, this one fifteen years later, Haftar’s coup was bloody. It started with the death of Abu-Bakr Yunis Jabr, the nation’s defence minister. Jabr was very close to Gaddafi, one of his true right-hand men and closer to the leader than Haftar would ever be. The assassination of Jabr set off an attack on Gaddafi’s powerbase. His headquarters in Tripoli, where he pitched his tents inside the Bab-al Azizia, was then struck by troops loyal to Haftar. These men had been those he had led into battle against Egypt earlier in the year and into Malta. They didn’t understand all that was going on yet did as tasked. Gaddafi wasn’t there in the famous compound. Haftar had been sure that he was yet his information was wrong. Forces and officials loyal to the leader were killed and Tripoli effectively under Haftar’s control though. Then it was the matter of getting Gaddafi.
The KGB could have told Haftar that Gaddafi was in Sirte, a town along the coast between Tripoli and Benghazi which was his tribal home, before he struck at the Bab-al Azizia. They would have ‘helped’ with the coup in other ways too. However, he did things his own way. The information was passed onto him afterwards though that delay – where Haftar had no idea where Gaddafi was and therefore his coup was stalled – did allow for a shaken Gaddafi to pull some strength to him. Loyal forces gathered in Sirte with the country heading towards a civil war. Gaddafi made a mistake though, another fatal one. He could have crushed Haftar by rallying his people to put this all down yet he panicked at the thought that Haftar had too much strength to take on in a direct fight unless more loyalists came to Sirte first. He had no idea either that Haftar was working on behalf of the KGB. If he knew that, he wouldn’t have made all the effort he did to contact Moscow. While he engaged in a desperate attempt to draw support, instead of going on the attack, Haftar gained in strength.
Gaddafi attempted to contact Vorotnikov directly but was rebuffed. Vorotnikov had no ties to the man beforehand and he taken great offense at Gaddafi acting behind his back. Gromyko was tasked to talk with Gaddafi. Delay him, Vorotnikov said, while Haftar twiddles his thumbs instead getting on with killing him. Gaddafi assured the Soviet foreign minister of his loyalty. He said that his country was in this war alongside the Soviet Union fully and he could be counted upon to crush the capitalists and the imperialists before Libya and the Soviet Union could together turn on the Zionists. For the time being, Libya would commit itself greater to the conflict than it already was. Libya’s army and air force would fight everywhere needed. The Islamic Pan-African Legion, Gaddafi’s mercenary army that the Soviets regarded as more of a danger to itself than anyone else should it see battle, was said by Gaddafi to be ready to march through Texas (if sent there) and defeat the Americans in battle. He just needed some help now. Gromyko strung Gaddafi along. He kept him talking for several days, feigning delays of his own. Troops streamed towards Sirte where Gaddafi was in the intervening time. There were loyalists and rebels. With the latter, Haftar – who’d made himself a general; Libya’s first since ’69 – was having trouble convincing more of Libya’s armed forces to his own side. The power of Gaddafi had faded somewhat when it was known that he had run away but he was still Gaddafi, the man who had run Libya for so long. Haftar’s rebels took a long time to get to where the final battle would be and from watching eyes afar, the Soviets considered the correlation of forces when it came to a fight for Sirte. Gaddafi might not win but he might not lose either, thus maybe escaping if possible to fight onwards. For now though, he was in one place.
The afternoon of December 14th, when Gaddafi was talking to Gromyko over a satellite-phone link-up, saw a trio of Soviet aircraft arrive over Sirte after flying from Bulgaria via the Aegean. Libyan air defence was in the hands of Soviet ‘advisers’ or Haftar’s rebels and the flight of these aircraft wasn’t molested. One at a time, the Bears dropped three huge bombs five minutes apart. Huge explosions ripped through Sirte with the rolling fireballs going on for several minutes each time. Above ground it was utter devastation while down in the many bunkers below Sirte, where Gaddafi was trying to run his country from, there were scenes of hell in the close confines. Thermobaric bombs had been used on Sirte, big weapons with the explosive power equivalent of eight tons of TNT each with live-tests of these weapons (which the Soviets aimed to use elsewhere soon) conducted over a real target. Such was the end of Sirte and Gaddafi too.
Haftar’s forces were impacted by the Sirte bombing but their opponents were destroyed. In the days and weeks afterwards, Haftar and his rebels took control of the rest of the nation. Scattered Gaddafi loyalists, men who didn’t believe he was dead, still fought and died for him. Soviet interference was limited, mainly technical, and Haftar showed his worth when it came to getting rid of the last vestiges of the regime. Libyan oil would no longer be going to Western Europe. However, Haftar wasn’t exactly pro-Soviet. He considered himself a Libyan patriot instead. His politics weren’t to their taste. A proud, devious man he was too. Vorotnikov cared little for him and his delays as well as how he had acted in a lonesome manner to take on Gaddafi rather than doing everything under Soviet guidance. Haftar’s future wasn’t one that Moscow would consider to be very long indeed.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 29, 2018 21:22:30 GMT
Once war comes to Sweden, which now seems pretty much certain I fear, I doubt they would bother what alliances anyone who would help them belong to or don't. However I'm doubtful if even if the neutrals comes off the fence they can do anything, especially since if they do so as a bloc their busy defending W Germany, Denmark and after that last update Italy - as well as seeing what they can do to help Austria which is almost certain to be attacked as well. Even if my suggestion of France joining the allies as a result and the Soviets don't expand the war to all of the continent then there's probably little they can do to help. As I think James said the Swedes might inflict some nasty losses on the Soviets and beat off the 1st attack but their too exposed and too difficult to support even if there were suitable forces available. It might be that winter would help and you get something like the Winter War but I can't see the Swedes holding out for months unless the Soviets really, really underestimate them.
The neutral bloc is too weak really in part because its defection from NATO means its word has less weight, especially when relating to anything military related. Also given it has a lot of heads and its distracted by the threat in the Baltic - presuming it realises how bad that is - its always going to move slower than the Soviets. Plus the Soviets want the war ended and control of the region so they can get their fleet out into the Med so they have a real incentive to do something.
Neutral bloc is the best name I can think of as it fits the circumstances but if you can think of another one that does the same by all means. There are others that would fit as accurately or more so but they would probably be thought offensive.  Overextension is a problem that afflict also the Soviet, they are not the pre-war juggernaut with almost infinite men and resources, they have bleed a lot and the current conflict in China and North America are already used up a lot of resources (both human and material). By now, they have enough capacity to get to the Rhine suffering outrageous loss but nothing more and frankly by now i will not take for granted the loyalty and will to fight of the rest of the Warsaw Pact nation, if you add also an invasion of Sweden things become even more complicated for them. An operation of this kind need Speznats and Airborne troops, both probably very much depleted by the previous fight and even if something remain it will mean scrap the bottom of the barrel and use the last reserve...and all this mean even less resources for any direct attack at Western Europe, expecially if the general loss for this operation are severe for the Soviets. European possible involvement in the war in Sweden will be probably (at the initial stage) will be naval and aerial, closing even more the straits and block any attempt by the soviets to supply troops in Sweden (unless they use Finland to launch a direct invasion)
Possibly but James has suggested otherwise. IIRC the Soviets haven't moved a lot of forces from European Russia yet plus don't forget the defence of the continent is markedly weaker without the current allied powers. Also there is the question of munitions supplies while may have been increased but possibly not by enough. Furthermore if the Soviets start to struggle don't assume the restriction on chemical weapons use will last. In fact they could use it from the start as the bloc isn't part of the American led alliance.
Possibly, especially in winter but that's still likely to be a fair amount of damage plus there is the chance of amphibious attacks in the south given the Soviet force emerging from the straits. Also they might try pushing through Yugoslavia although that would likely be resisted.
Athens and Ankara could well receive criticism from a lot of sources but their likely to view that from the neutral bloc [rightly] as hypocritical.
Factually inaccurate because those nations aren't part of the neutral bloc. Its the combination of the two words that is relevant. You may be happy to use the EEC if you don't consider Britain and Ireland as real members and hence can dismiss the fact their already at war but its simply too inaccurate. Also those two countries are still members of the organisation so any grouping such as the neutral bloc that doesn't include them is manifestly NOT the EEC. Unless you assume that as well as jumping out of NATO the bloc has expelled Britain and Ireland from the EEC?
Of course this would change if they do become engaged in the conflict but then again EEC isn't going to be accurate as two members will be operating independently of it.
Again your excluding the fact that it excludes current members of the EEC. Also I doubt that the EEC would take such far reaching steps two years early when their got their minds on far more important things.
I repeat what I've said before, your jumping the gun. Palme may be desperate enough to approach them but probably wouldn't expect them to do anything given their recent [in-]action. Also will Germany be willing to open itself to invasion as if the bloc leaves neutrality it will be the primary target of the resulting Soviet invasion? I doubt Bonn will be happy if Paris tries to push it into that.
Plus if the war widens where will the bloc find forces from to support Sweden when its struggling to resist a Soviet invasion. There will be some indirect aid in that naval forces and some air that may have had roles in attacking Sweden but that's about all. There will be no military forces from the bloc riding to aid Sweden. Nor from anywhere else as the allies simply don't have the forces to assist.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 29, 2018 21:25:24 GMT
For Sweden, well once the war become hot for them, Palme and his goverment will probably look away at this little detail like UK memberships in the WEU...as frankly i doubt that their military commanders had given an opinion different from: alone we are so toasted that's not even funnny; hell people will probably tell him that becoming a member of the EEC/WEU/whatever now can be the move necessary to avoid an armed conflict Things like that make acceptable things that's just before were not and at least the WEU is not NATO. Ok, frankly i not see the Athens and Ankara goverments being so brain dead and accept the Soviet proposal, while i doubt that the US will attack them i expect Bruxelles, in the name of the rest of Europe neutral nation, to give them not only a big formal protest but imply that this move will have consequences (of the 'has been good have an economy' type) and they better hope that Moscow win the war. Honestly i was expecting more an european move to end the war and stop precisely this kind of move...Moscow has probably been more quick. With a move like that and the foreshadowed Libya development i doubt that even the Western Germany and Benelux goverment can be too slow as western europe is now basically surrounded and very soon the Soviet will come again with their demand. Cynically, many goverments in all Europe will hope for some big breakthrough by China as more bloody is that conflict more resources Moscow must use there and not in any possible war against EEC/WEU/please somebody found a name because the European neutralist bloc is not really catchy. I can't see why Athens and Ankara wouldn't accept the deal but then I am blind to it as it was my creation. It gave them both a way out of the war, one which they didn't want to be a part of. I'll think of a name for the Western European neutralists. A 'Paris Pact' or something like that. Another good update James. So the Greek-Turkish War has ended and the only winner is the Soviet Union i guess. The only winner indeed. No one else will come away with anything good from this.
James
Ouch that's bad for the allies and also the neutrals. The Soviet Black Sea fleet will have a lot of power in the Med and forcing the straits, while it shouldn't be too difficult for subs could be costly for surface ships depending on what missiles the British and Spanish have available. I could see when the news comes out that the Soviets are free in the Med urgent searching for such missile to support such a force. Don't know if Britain still has any heavy guns in Gib but probably not. If they were and were well dug in that could be an awkward problem for any Soviet forces seeking to run the straits.
I'm a bit surprised that the Greeks and Turks fell for the Soviet trick as they should realised that its going to be difficult to get the Soviets out once their in. Also if the allies - along with possibly others - end up winning then Souda Bay is likely to be a crater when its returned to Greek control. Mind you it could be that given the level of hatred between the two not only was any joint co-operation between them against the Soviet practical but also the leaders were so eager to get out of a ruinous war that they jumped before they looked at the details.
Of course another issue is that Libya, a Soviet ally, currently occupies Malta IIRC. True there is likely to be a change of leadership in Libya but I can see Grand Harbour being a major Soviet base in the near future, which will cause concern for Italy especially but also the neutral bloc as well as the allies.  If the Maltese thought their plight was bad before I fear its going to only get worse. 
Steve
There will be a battle for the Gibraltar Straits coming up. Geography favours the Allies there greatly. Exocets in Gibraltar could do the job, maybe more in Ceuta. There were land-based versions available at the time. it will really be air power, mines, warships with missiles and subs which will fight the battle though. Grrece and Turkey had to work together but fighting, they were ripe for Soviet deviousness. Libya will get its change and Malta will play a role soon enough. It was taken for that reason back in September. Yes, Malta isn't a good place at the minute.
James
Thanks for that. Looking forward to the battle of Gibraltar, although hopefully if the neutral bloc is drawn into the war that will distract a lot of the Soviet forces. As I said to Luke neutral bloc would have to go if they do enter the conflict.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 29, 2018 21:41:04 GMT
(275)December 1984: Libya The majority of the world’s communist and revolutionary socialist nations had long sent military officers, intelligence personnel and diplomats to the Soviet Union to study and undergo training there. Many of the world’s terrorists had too made the journey. All expenses paid trips weren’t for nothing though on either end. For developing nations inside or entering the Soviet sphere, they received back personnel who had learnt much during their time spread in the world’s leading communist nation. The Soviets proclaimed fraternal friendship and sought the prestige yet they also established personal contacts with those who came to their nation away from the spying eyes of their own countrymen back home. There was time to impress, woo and convert the visitors who came from across the globe. Colonel Khalifa Belqasim Haftar was one of those who’d spent time inside the Soviet Union. Gaddafi had sent his fellow Libya military officer on that trip, Haftar being one of the original men who’d help depose King Idris back in 1969 alongside him. He was one of Gaddafi’s closest confidants. The KGB had targeted Haftar for one of their long-term manipulation schemes. He gave them information during his time in their country and once he returned to Libya. He did so for many motives, conflicting ones even, but he wasn’t forced to betray neither his country nor his leader. He saw his actions where he liaised with the KGB as only helping both. Gaddafi had appointed Haftar to command the Malta operation and Haftar had done as tasked: taken control of the island on time and perfectly according to the plan. Gifts and platitudes were delivered to Haftar from Gaddafi on behalf of the Libyan people but also (supposedly) the Maltese as well for how he had saved that little country from becoming a warzone by filling it with Libyan troops. At the end of November, Haftar had returned to Libya. Gaddafi tasked him with something else of great importance. That was for Haftar to oversee internal security for the secretive oil shipping to Western Europe via intermediaries. Gaddafi still believed that the Soviets wouldn’t find out though conversely believed too that if they did, they would understand. He wanted to make sure that he had control over the information about this though and so used the ‘trusted’ Haftar. What a mistake this was. Within days, Haftar let the KGB know what was going on. He did so because he too feared that they would discover this and turn on Libya. By telling them before they found out by themselves, Haftar hoped to control what happened. He had no idea of the reaction in Moscow to the information he passed on. Tankers with Libyan oil supposed going to countries which the Soviet Union was not in a dispute with and trying to blackmail into accepting its own oil but were really bound for use in France and Italy (those who stood defiantly in Moscow’s way) through Swiss and Yugoslavian middlemen. Gaddafi was aiding the enemies of the Soviet Union. He was doing so just to enrich himself and keep his personal regime in power, not for any other reason than could be in any way understood if anyone in Moscow wanted to take the time to consider being reasonable. There was no mood to do that. Vorotnikov could have himself or used Gromyko to tell Gaddafi to stop this. That was what Haftar thought would be done. That wasn’t to be though. The KGB came back to him and offered him much. They knew he was an ambitious man and that he had dreams for himself as one day replacing Gaddafi should anything terrible befall the country’s leader. Haftar was told that something terrible was about to befall Gaddafi and that the Soviet Union would back him – fully – should he make that occur. Do it for Libya, do it for yourself. Haftar hesitated. He kept the KGB waiting for an answer for a week in early December. He spent time alone, with Gaddafi and among other Libyan military officers at the top of the regime. The KGB watchers lost track of him, themselves always trying to dodge Libyan official attention. In Moscow, Vorotnikov demanded to know if Haftar was going to do this. Was he or had he got cold feet? Or had he betrayed the scheme to Gaddafi and threw himself at the mercy of his leader? Would Haftar have to join Gaddafi in the grave which Vorotnikov intended to see the latter in? Without meeting his handler personally, just passing on a coded message, Haftar launched a coup d’état to topple Gaddafi. Unlike the last time Libya’s regime was toppled, this one fifteen years later, Haftar’s coup was bloody. It started with the death of Abu-Bakr Yunis Jabr, the nation’s defence minister. Jabr was very close to Gaddafi, one of his true right-hand men and closer to the leader than Haftar would ever be. The assassination of Jabr set off an attack on Gaddafi’s powerbase. His headquarters in Tripoli, where he pitched his tents inside the Bab-al Azizia, was then struck by troops loyal to Haftar. These men had been those he had led into battle against Egypt earlier in the year and into Malta. They didn’t understand all that was going on yet did as tasked. Gaddafi wasn’t there in the famous compound. Haftar had been sure that he was yet his information was wrong. Forces and officials loyal to the leader were killed and Tripoli effectively under Haftar’s control though. Then it was the matter of getting Gaddafi. The KGB could have told Haftar that Gaddafi was in Sirte, a town along the coast between Tripoli and Benghazi which was his tribal home, before he struck at the Bab-al Azizia. They would have ‘helped’ with the coup in other ways too. However, he did things his own way. The information was passed onto him afterwards though that delay – where Haftar had no idea where Gaddafi was and therefore his coup was stalled – did allow for a shaken Gaddafi to pull some strength to him. Loyal forces gathered in Sirte with the country heading towards a civil war. Gaddafi made a mistake though, another fatal one. He could have crushed Haftar by rallying his people to put this all down yet he panicked at the thought that Haftar had too much strength to take on in a direct fight unless more loyalists came to Sirte first. He had no idea either that Haftar was working on behalf of the KGB. If he knew that, he wouldn’t have made all the effort he did to contact Moscow. While he engaged in a desperate attempt to draw support, instead of going on the attack, Haftar gained in strength. Gaddafi attempted to contact Vorotnikov directly but was rebuffed. Vorotnikov had no ties to the man beforehand and he taken great offense at Gaddafi acting behind his back. Gromyko was tasked to talk with Gaddafi. Delay him, Vorotnikov said, while Haftar twiddles his thumbs instead getting on with killing him. Gaddafi assured the Soviet foreign minister of his loyalty. He said that his country was in this war alongside the Soviet Union fully and he could be counted upon to crush the capitalists and the imperialists before Libya and the Soviet Union could together turn on the Zionists. For the time being, Libya would commit itself greater to the conflict than it already was. Libya’s army and air force would fight everywhere needed. The Islamic Pan-African Legion, Gaddafi’s mercenary army that the Soviets regarded as more of a danger to itself than anyone else should it see battle, was said by Gaddafi to be ready to march through Texas (if sent there) and defeat the Americans in battle. He just needed some help now. Gromyko strung Gaddafi along. He kept him talking for several days, feigning delays of his own. Troops streamed towards Sirte where Gaddafi was in the intervening time. There were loyalists and rebels. With the latter, Haftar – who’d made himself a general; Libya’s first since ’69 – was having trouble convincing more of Libya’s armed forces to his own side. The power of Gaddafi had faded somewhat when it was known that he had run away but he was still Gaddafi, the man who had run Libya for so long. Haftar’s rebels took a long time to get to where the final battle would be and from watching eyes afar, the Soviets considered the correlation of forces when it came to a fight for Sirte. Gaddafi might not win but he might not lose either, thus maybe escaping if possible to fight onwards. For now though, he was in one place. The afternoon of December 14th, when Gaddafi was talking to Gromyko over a satellite-phone link-up, saw a trio of Soviet aircraft arrive over Sirte after flying from Bulgaria via the Aegean. Libyan air defence was in the hands of Soviet ‘advisers’ or Haftar’s rebels and the flight of these aircraft wasn’t molested. One at a time, the Bears dropped three huge bombs five minutes apart. Huge explosions ripped through Sirte with the rolling fireballs going on for several minutes each time. Above ground it was utter devastation while down in the many bunkers below Sirte, where Gaddafi was trying to run his country from, there were scenes of hell in the close confines. Thermobaric bombs had been used on Sirte, big weapons with the explosive power equivalent of eight tons of TNT each with live-tests of these weapons ( which the Soviets aimed to use elsewhere soon) conducted over a real target. Such was the end of Sirte and Gaddafi too. Haftar’s forces were impacted by the Sirte bombing but their opponents were destroyed. In the days and weeks afterwards, Haftar and his rebels took control of the rest of the nation. Scattered Gaddafi loyalists, men who didn’t believe he was dead, still fought and died for him. Soviet interference was limited, mainly technical, and Haftar showed his worth when it came to getting rid of the last vestiges of the regime. Libyan oil would no longer be going to Western Europe. However, Haftar wasn’t exactly pro-Soviet. He considered himself a Libyan patriot instead. His politics weren’t to their taste. A proud, devious man he was too. Vorotnikov cared little for him and his delays as well as how he had acted in a lonesome manner to take on Gaddafi rather than doing everything under Soviet guidance. Haftar’s future wasn’t one that Moscow would consider to be very long indeed.
James
Well that's Gaddafi gone and good riddens but I think Moscow may have dug itself a deeper hole as Haftar knows how far he can trust Vorotnikov - i.e. no distance at all - and if things turn against the Soviets he's likely to look for a way out. The fact that Vorotnikov and his cohorts don't realise why Haftar acted on is own shows how far their drifting from reality.
That bit about the thermobaric bombs is worrying. Suspect it would be in China but could easily be elsewhere. Probably not on the allies or France as it could result in a nuclear response, especially if against a population centre. Also hopefully even Britain, battered as it is, could deny the Soviets the air control for the use of such weapons.
Which made me think of something. We had the incident of the Dutch pilot who volunteered to aid the US. That ended badly but wondering if other people from Europe, with military experience, have been crossing the channel, or turning up in Norway or Iberia and offering their support? It seems likely that some would do this, possibly even resigning from current military positions in some cases and given how desperate the crisis is for the European allies I would expect they would be welcomed with open arms. Probably not many but even a few hundred with the right skills could be very useful.
Steve
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Post by lukedalton on Oct 29, 2018 22:10:39 GMT
For Sweden, well once the war become hot for them, Palme and his goverment will probably look away at this little detail like UK memberships in the WEU...as frankly i doubt that their military commanders had given an opinion different from: alone we are so toasted that's not even funnny; hell people will probably tell him that becoming a member of the EEC/WEU/whatever now can be the move necessary to avoid an armed conflict Things like that make acceptable things that's just before were not and at least the WEU is not NATO. Ok, frankly i not see the Athens and Ankara goverments being so brain dead and accept the Soviet proposal, while i doubt that the US will attack them i expect Bruxelles, in the name of the rest of Europe neutral nation, to give them not only a big formal protest but imply that this move will have consequences (of the 'has been good have an economy' type) and they better hope that Moscow win the war. Honestly i was expecting more an european move to end the war and stop precisely this kind of move...Moscow has probably been more quick. With a move like that and the foreshadowed Libya development i doubt that even the Western Germany and Benelux goverment can be too slow as western europe is now basically surrounded and very soon the Soviet will come again with their demand. Cynically, many goverments in all Europe will hope for some big breakthrough by China as more bloody is that conflict more resources Moscow must use there and not in any possible war against EEC/WEU/please somebody found a name because the European neutralist bloc is not really catchy. I can't see why Athens and Ankara wouldn't accept the deal but then I am blind to it as it was my creation. It gave them both a way out of the war, one which they didn't want to be a part of. I'll think of a name for the Western European neutralists. A 'Paris Pact' or something like that. But it also tie them to the Soviets, opening the Mediterrean to their fleet and greatly weaken the strategic position of both the Paris Pact (like it, but maybe Treaty/Charter/Alliance is better to differentiate by the other pact) and Allies. Not saying that they will have not accepted at the moment, but there will be long term consequences if the URSS and co. don't win, expecially for Greece that from an external pow seem be governed by...not very smart people; so i feel that once the afterglow of the end of the war will end the various leader will start to have some troubled thought and must decide Also because i don't see Paris and co. as not having tried to act as peacemaker between the two nation, while failing is probable, it will also look very bad to the Western eyes when Moscow get the role of ending the war and reap the logistical benefit of it And before someone point out some similarities between Turkey and Greece and the rest of Europe, at least the nation that bailed out of NATO commitment are actively helping the Allied war effort with supply, intelligence, humanitarian and financial aid |
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Post by lukedalton on Oct 29, 2018 22:38:46 GMT
Overextension is a problem that afflict also the Soviet, they are not the pre-war juggernaut with almost infinite men and resources, they have bleed a lot and the current conflict in China and North America are already used up a lot of resources (both human and material). By now, they have enough capacity to get to the Rhine suffering outrageous loss but nothing more and frankly by now i will not take for granted the loyalty and will to fight of the rest of the Warsaw Pact nation, if you add also an invasion of Sweden things become even more complicated for them. An operation of this kind need Speznats and Airborne troops, both probably very much depleted by the previous fight and even if something remain it will mean scrap the bottom of the barrel and use the last reserve...and all this mean even less resources for any direct attack at Western Europe, expecially if the general loss for this operation are severe for the Soviets. European possible involvement in the war in Sweden will be probably (at the initial stage) will be naval and aerial, closing even more the straits and block any attempt by the soviets to supply troops in Sweden (unless they use Finland to launch a direct invasion)
Possibly but James has suggested otherwise. IIRC the Soviets haven't moved a lot of forces from European Russia yet plus don't forget the defence of the continent is markedly weaker without the current allied powers. Also there is the question of munitions supplies while may have been increased but possibly not by enough. Furthermore if the Soviets start to struggle don't assume the restriction on chemical weapons use will last. In fact they could use it from the start as the bloc isn't part of the American led alliance.
Possibly, especially in winter but that's still likely to be a fair amount of damage plus there is the chance of amphibious attacks in the south given the Soviet force emerging from the straits. Also they might try pushing through Yugoslavia although that would likely be resisted.
Athens and Ankara could well receive criticism from a lot of sources but their likely to view that from the neutral bloc [rightly] as hypocritical.
Factually inaccurate because those nations aren't part of the neutral bloc. Its the combination of the two words that is relevant. You may be happy to use the EEC if you don't consider Britain and Ireland as real members and hence can dismiss the fact their already at war but its simply too inaccurate. Also those two countries are still members of the organisation so any grouping such as the neutral bloc that doesn't include them is manifestly NOT the EEC. Unless you assume that as well as jumping out of NATO the bloc has expelled Britain and Ireland from the EEC?
Of course this would change if they do become engaged in the conflict but then again EEC isn't going to be accurate as two members will be operating independently of it.
Again your excluding the fact that it excludes current members of the EEC. Also I doubt that the EEC would take such far reaching steps two years early when their got their minds on far more important things.
I repeat what I've said before, your jumping the gun. Palme may be desperate enough to approach them but probably wouldn't expect them to do anything given their recent [in-]action. Also will Germany be willing to open itself to invasion as if the bloc leaves neutrality it will be the primary target of the resulting Soviet invasion? I doubt Bonn will be happy if Paris tries to push it into that.
Plus if the war widens where will the bloc find forces from to support Sweden when its struggling to resist a Soviet invasion. There will be some indirect aid in that naval forces and some air that may have had roles in attacking Sweden but that's about all. There will be no military forces from the bloc riding to aid Sweden. Nor from anywhere else as the allies simply don't have the forces to assist.
1) i'm happy to use the term EEC because using: 'The european nations at the moment neutral but still officially member of NATO' in a thread more than 150 pages long is a little time consuming and irritant; it's a little uncorrect? Yes, it's enough important to continue to talk about it? I doubt it 2) The bloc is not part of the american alliance...but had plenty of WMD (just France in OTL 1985 had 435 tons of chemical weapons) 3) Ankara and Athens can see the rest of Europe protest hypocritical sure (even if they are helping a lot the rest of the Alliance from other side), still Bruxelles will not be happy and their economies depend of France and co. as for the spare parts to keep their military gear ready. 4) For Palme, there will be some doubts about the rest of Europe commitments? Yes...there are some other game in town? No, so it's in the situation of drink or drown. By Author word, the european mobilization is not at the full stage, so some relief force can be sent, and Germany while not like the situation will understand (as all other european goverment) the consequence of the fall of Sweden and that war seem at the moment not avoidable, expecially with the recent developement in the Mediterranean, with the Kidnapping and the attack at the nuclear plant among other thing. 5) Getting a working and functional multigovernmental decision framework in this time of war and hard decision...is a priority, full stop; and some temporary/ad hoc/ solution will be found due to the sheer necessity of a decision making body. 6) Regarding Italy, if they want invade or even launching anything greater than raid the Soviets and co. will need a lot of naval assets that they don't have. 7) IRC the statement about the Soviet capacity aka reaching the Rhine with horrible casualities but after that not being capable of following, it's the statement of James, plus the war in America and UK had seen the great use of Speznats and airborne troopers...and of that there is a limited quantity, at least of good trained |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 30, 2018 9:55:37 GMT
I can't see why Athens and Ankara wouldn't accept the deal but then I am blind to it as it was my creation. It gave them both a way out of the war, one which they didn't want to be a part of. I'll think of a name for the Western European neutralists. A 'Paris Pact' or something like that. But it also tie them to the Soviets, opening the Mediterrean to their fleet and greatly weaken the strategic position of both the Paris Pact (like it, but maybe Treaty/Charter/Alliance is better to differentiate by the other pact) and Allies. Not saying that they will have not accepted at the moment, but there will be long term consequences if the URSS and co. don't win, expecially for Greece that from an external pow seem be governed by...not very smart people; so i feel that once the afterglow of the end of the war will end the various leader will start to have some troubled thought and must decide Also because i don't see Paris and co. as not having tried to act as peacemaker between the two nation, while failing is probable, it will also look very bad to the Western eyes when Moscow get the role of ending the war and reap the logistical benefit of it And before someone point out some similarities between Turkey and Greece and the rest of Europe, at least the nation that bailed out of NATO commitment are actively helping the Allied war effort with supply, intelligence, humanitarian and financial aid
That's like saying they offered a band aid to a severed artery. Plus has James actually mentioned financial aid? There has been some intel and possibly humanitarian actions and some supply although where sent for free or with the expectation of payment its unclear. Basically they bailed out of a treaty that they had been members of for 30+ years because it was convenient for them. Which means no matter their economic position when the conflict ends their word will be worth very little as they have shown they can't be trusted.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 30, 2018 10:45:51 GMT
Possibly but James has suggested otherwise. IIRC the Soviets haven't moved a lot of forces from European Russia yet plus don't forget the defence of the continent is markedly weaker without the current allied powers. Also there is the question of munitions supplies while may have been increased but possibly not by enough. Furthermore if the Soviets start to struggle don't assume the restriction on chemical weapons use will last. In fact they could use it from the start as the bloc isn't part of the American led alliance.
Possibly, especially in winter but that's still likely to be a fair amount of damage plus there is the chance of amphibious attacks in the south given the Soviet force emerging from the straits. Also they might try pushing through Yugoslavia although that would likely be resisted.
Athens and Ankara could well receive criticism from a lot of sources but their likely to view that from the neutral bloc [rightly] as hypocritical.
Factually inaccurate because those nations aren't part of the neutral bloc. Its the combination of the two words that is relevant. You may be happy to use the EEC if you don't consider Britain and Ireland as real members and hence can dismiss the fact their already at war but its simply too inaccurate. Also those two countries are still members of the organisation so any grouping such as the neutral bloc that doesn't include them is manifestly NOT the EEC. Unless you assume that as well as jumping out of NATO the bloc has expelled Britain and Ireland from the EEC?
Of course this would change if they do become engaged in the conflict but then again EEC isn't going to be accurate as two members will be operating independently of it.
Again your excluding the fact that it excludes current members of the EEC. Also I doubt that the EEC would take such far reaching steps two years early when their got their minds on far more important things.
I repeat what I've said before, your jumping the gun. Palme may be desperate enough to approach them but probably wouldn't expect them to do anything given their recent [in-]action. Also will Germany be willing to open itself to invasion as if the bloc leaves neutrality it will be the primary target of the resulting Soviet invasion? I doubt Bonn will be happy if Paris tries to push it into that.
Plus if the war widens where will the bloc find forces from to support Sweden when its struggling to resist a Soviet invasion. There will be some indirect aid in that naval forces and some air that may have had roles in attacking Sweden but that's about all. There will be no military forces from the bloc riding to aid Sweden. Nor from anywhere else as the allies simply don't have the forces to assist.
1) i'm happy to use the term EEC because using: 'The european nations at the moment neutral but still officially member of NATO' in a thread more than 150 pages long is a little time consuming and irritant; it's a little uncorrect? Yes, it's enough important to continue to talk about it? I doubt it 2) The bloc is not part of the american alliance...but had plenty of WMD (just France in OTL 1985 had 435 tons of chemical weapons) 3) Ankara and Athens can see the rest of Europe protest hypocritical sure (even if they are helping a lot the rest of the Alliance from other side), still Bruxelles will not be happy and their economies depend of France and co. as for the spare parts to keep their military gear ready. 4) For Palme, there will be some doubts about the rest of Europe commitments? Yes...there are some other game in town? No, so it's in the situation of drink or drown. By Author word, the european mobilization is not at the full stage, so some relief force can be sent, and Germany while not like the situation will understand (as all other european goverment) the consequence of the fall of Sweden and that war seem at the moment not avoidable, expecially with the recent developement in the Mediterranean, with the Kidnapping and the attack at the nuclear plant among other thing. 5) Getting a working and functional multigovernmental decision framework in this time of war and hard decision...is a priority, full stop; and some temporary/ad hoc/ solution will be found due to the sheer necessity of a decision making body. 6) Regarding Italy, if they want invade or even launching anything greater than raid the Soviets and co. will need a lot of naval assets that they don't have. 7) IRC the statement about the Soviet capacity aka reaching the Rhine with horrible casualities but after that not being capable of following, it's the statement of James, plus the war in America and UK had seen the great use of Speznats and airborne troopers...and of that there is a limited quantity, at least of good trained
1) I'm using a term that is [currently] factually correct but you for some reason have an objection to it and wish to use one that is simply wrong. Plus I'm pretty certain I was using it before you started trying to re-write the boundaries of the EEC. Not to mention are those nations still in NATO as they have breached its charter? Even the long winded term you invented above is no longer than 'the collection of EEC powers not currently engaged in the conflict' so please don't bother with strawmen like that.
2) Think your replying here to the possibility that if the bloc enters the war the Soviets might start with a chemical element to their attack? Yes the French have some deterrence and the bloc forces have some levels of chemical protection. Possibly not however for reserves moblised in the last few months? However the Soviets have far, far more and would be using them 1st. Also its going to cause a lot of damage and destruction both in areas overrun and those under attack behind the bloc lines. My point was that even if the cohesion of the bloc holds, which no one would know until it came to a shooting war, its going to take a hell of a lot of damage. For those actually involved in ground fighting far more than what's happened to the UK for instance.
3) Double standards are still double standards. Also depending on the situation after the war they might be needed to maintain security in the eastern Med or as a block to Soviet/Russian moves so they may not be as friendless as you suggest. They will be pretty unpopular presuming the Soviets are defeated decisively but don't assume both the allies and the bloc will freeze them out and leave the region to collapse in disorder.
4a) Its a possible card to use as an attempted deterrent - i.e. if the bloc would give such a promise to aid Sweden but if the Soviets call their bluff then Sweden isn't going to get a jot of direct help because the bloc would be busy trying to protect its own lands. Indirect help as I say but that's likely to be all.
4b) So having decided to dump its allies to avoid conflict when those allies made up a major part of their defence the bloc is going to join the conflict now? W Germany, with those allied forces that would have fought alongside them - because it would have been impossible to remove them with a shooting war going on - is now going to be happy to become the front line in a major new conflict with the Soviets and even by your projection see most of its country overrun? And why, because another neutral is overrun and S Norway is going to fall as a result? Britain won't fall because it has nukes and even Thatcher will be willing to threaten to use them if it gets that bad. Iberia won't be threatened if the Soviet forces in the Med can't seriously attack Italy which is much nearer their bases. I find it hard to see why the bloc, having done so much to avoid the war would suddenly do a 180 turn?
Frankly I would like to see the bloc do this as it would take some pressure off the allies, probably most especially Britain but since their followed their short term advantage so far I don't see why this would change. As I say I can see a geopolitical argument for France to finally come off the fence while keeping the bulk of its army back to defend Germany if attacked. This might just possibly deter an attack against Sweden or failing that would be a significant boost to the allies while possibly keeping the rest of the bloc neutral and leaving the burden on the Soviets to attack them, which would be the favoured option by the rest of the bloc. However I think the bloc actually deciding to step in now doesn't fit with the scenario so far. Also James has mentioned there will be a battle of Gibraltar. Unless this happens soon its not likely to occur if the bloc is at war as they will be busy fighting to get past Italy and its allies.
5) "a working and functional multigovernmental decision framework" is necessary but that is more likely to be some impromptu military and/or political council, like the combined chiefs of staff in WWII then 'lets throw together a unified government within a few weeks'.
6) Interesting that you suggest the Soviet Baltic fleet, having fought their way through the straits there and facing combatants to their south can support an invasion of Britain - which as I say I doubt the Soviets would be reckless enough to risk - but their Black Sea fleet having unopposed passage through the Turkish straits and with allied bases nearby can't support an invasion of Italy?
7) James did say something like that but that still leaves much of the bloc devastated, let alone possible developments elsewhere. However there is always doubt in warfare and while James's opinion, as the author of the story, special weight this is not something the bloc decision makers are aware of. They know they are weaker because of the loss of allies while relatively small Soviet forces have been committed to the N American front and those going to China have been from east of the Urals. Hence the bulk of the Soviet 2nd and 3rd echelon forces that would support their initial attack are still present west of the Urals. Also with the southern flank secured they have no need to fight Turkey or Greece. Plus the shortages of stockpiles that James mentioned as being fatal to NATO in real life may have been made up but may not, especially if their been generous in supplying the needs of the European allies.
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James G
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Post by James G on Oct 30, 2018 20:09:20 GMT
(275)December 1984: Libya The majority of the world’s communist and revolutionary socialist nations had long sent military officers, intelligence personnel and diplomats to the Soviet Union to study and undergo training there. Many of the world’s terrorists had too made the journey. All expenses paid trips weren’t for nothing though on either end. For developing nations inside or entering the Soviet sphere, they received back personnel who had learnt much during their time spread in the world’s leading communist nation. The Soviets proclaimed fraternal friendship and sought the prestige yet they also established personal contacts with those who came to their nation away from the spying eyes of their own countrymen back home. There was time to impress, woo and convert the visitors who came from across the globe. Colonel Khalifa Belqasim Haftar was one of those who’d spent time inside the Soviet Union. Gaddafi had sent his fellow Libya military officer on that trip, Haftar being one of the original men who’d help depose King Idris back in 1969 alongside him. He was one of Gaddafi’s closest confidants. The KGB had targeted Haftar for one of their long-term manipulation schemes. He gave them information during his time in their country and once he returned to Libya. He did so for many motives, conflicting ones even, but he wasn’t forced to betray neither his country nor his leader. He saw his actions where he liaised with the KGB as only helping both. Gaddafi had appointed Haftar to command the Malta operation and Haftar had done as tasked: taken control of the island on time and perfectly according to the plan. Gifts and platitudes were delivered to Haftar from Gaddafi on behalf of the Libyan people but also (supposedly) the Maltese as well for how he had saved that little country from becoming a warzone by filling it with Libyan troops. At the end of November, Haftar had returned to Libya. Gaddafi tasked him with something else of great importance. That was for Haftar to oversee internal security for the secretive oil shipping to Western Europe via intermediaries. Gaddafi still believed that the Soviets wouldn’t find out though conversely believed too that if they did, they would understand. He wanted to make sure that he had control over the information about this though and so used the ‘trusted’ Haftar. What a mistake this was. Within days, Haftar let the KGB know what was going on. He did so because he too feared that they would discover this and turn on Libya. By telling them before they found out by themselves, Haftar hoped to control what happened. He had no idea of the reaction in Moscow to the information he passed on. Tankers with Libyan oil supposed going to countries which the Soviet Union was not in a dispute with and trying to blackmail into accepting its own oil but were really bound for use in France and Italy (those who stood defiantly in Moscow’s way) through Swiss and Yugoslavian middlemen. Gaddafi was aiding the enemies of the Soviet Union. He was doing so just to enrich himself and keep his personal regime in power, not for any other reason than could be in any way understood if anyone in Moscow wanted to take the time to consider being reasonable. There was no mood to do that. Vorotnikov could have himself or used Gromyko to tell Gaddafi to stop this. That was what Haftar thought would be done. That wasn’t to be though. The KGB came back to him and offered him much. They knew he was an ambitious man and that he had dreams for himself as one day replacing Gaddafi should anything terrible befall the country’s leader. Haftar was told that something terrible was about to befall Gaddafi and that the Soviet Union would back him – fully – should he make that occur. Do it for Libya, do it for yourself. Haftar hesitated. He kept the KGB waiting for an answer for a week in early December. He spent time alone, with Gaddafi and among other Libyan military officers at the top of the regime. The KGB watchers lost track of him, themselves always trying to dodge Libyan official attention. In Moscow, Vorotnikov demanded to know if Haftar was going to do this. Was he or had he got cold feet? Or had he betrayed the scheme to Gaddafi and threw himself at the mercy of his leader? Would Haftar have to join Gaddafi in the grave which Vorotnikov intended to see the latter in? Without meeting his handler personally, just passing on a coded message, Haftar launched a coup d’état to topple Gaddafi. Unlike the last time Libya’s regime was toppled, this one fifteen years later, Haftar’s coup was bloody. It started with the death of Abu-Bakr Yunis Jabr, the nation’s defence minister. Jabr was very close to Gaddafi, one of his true right-hand men and closer to the leader than Haftar would ever be. The assassination of Jabr set off an attack on Gaddafi’s powerbase. His headquarters in Tripoli, where he pitched his tents inside the Bab-al Azizia, was then struck by troops loyal to Haftar. These men had been those he had led into battle against Egypt earlier in the year and into Malta. They didn’t understand all that was going on yet did as tasked. Gaddafi wasn’t there in the famous compound. Haftar had been sure that he was yet his information was wrong. Forces and officials loyal to the leader were killed and Tripoli effectively under Haftar’s control though. Then it was the matter of getting Gaddafi. The KGB could have told Haftar that Gaddafi was in Sirte, a town along the coast between Tripoli and Benghazi which was his tribal home, before he struck at the Bab-al Azizia. They would have ‘helped’ with the coup in other ways too. However, he did things his own way. The information was passed onto him afterwards though that delay – where Haftar had no idea where Gaddafi was and therefore his coup was stalled – did allow for a shaken Gaddafi to pull some strength to him. Loyal forces gathered in Sirte with the country heading towards a civil war. Gaddafi made a mistake though, another fatal one. He could have crushed Haftar by rallying his people to put this all down yet he panicked at the thought that Haftar had too much strength to take on in a direct fight unless more loyalists came to Sirte first. He had no idea either that Haftar was working on behalf of the KGB. If he knew that, he wouldn’t have made all the effort he did to contact Moscow. While he engaged in a desperate attempt to draw support, instead of going on the attack, Haftar gained in strength. Gaddafi attempted to contact Vorotnikov directly but was rebuffed. Vorotnikov had no ties to the man beforehand and he taken great offense at Gaddafi acting behind his back. Gromyko was tasked to talk with Gaddafi. Delay him, Vorotnikov said, while Haftar twiddles his thumbs instead getting on with killing him. Gaddafi assured the Soviet foreign minister of his loyalty. He said that his country was in this war alongside the Soviet Union fully and he could be counted upon to crush the capitalists and the imperialists before Libya and the Soviet Union could together turn on the Zionists. For the time being, Libya would commit itself greater to the conflict than it already was. Libya’s army and air force would fight everywhere needed. The Islamic Pan-African Legion, Gaddafi’s mercenary army that the Soviets regarded as more of a danger to itself than anyone else should it see battle, was said by Gaddafi to be ready to march through Texas (if sent there) and defeat the Americans in battle. He just needed some help now. Gromyko strung Gaddafi along. He kept him talking for several days, feigning delays of his own. Troops streamed towards Sirte where Gaddafi was in the intervening time. There were loyalists and rebels. With the latter, Haftar – who’d made himself a general; Libya’s first since ’69 – was having trouble convincing more of Libya’s armed forces to his own side. The power of Gaddafi had faded somewhat when it was known that he had run away but he was still Gaddafi, the man who had run Libya for so long. Haftar’s rebels took a long time to get to where the final battle would be and from watching eyes afar, the Soviets considered the correlation of forces when it came to a fight for Sirte. Gaddafi might not win but he might not lose either, thus maybe escaping if possible to fight onwards. For now though, he was in one place. The afternoon of December 14th, when Gaddafi was talking to Gromyko over a satellite-phone link-up, saw a trio of Soviet aircraft arrive over Sirte after flying from Bulgaria via the Aegean. Libyan air defence was in the hands of Soviet ‘advisers’ or Haftar’s rebels and the flight of these aircraft wasn’t molested. One at a time, the Bears dropped three huge bombs five minutes apart. Huge explosions ripped through Sirte with the rolling fireballs going on for several minutes each time. Above ground it was utter devastation while down in the many bunkers below Sirte, where Gaddafi was trying to run his country from, there were scenes of hell in the close confines. Thermobaric bombs had been used on Sirte, big weapons with the explosive power equivalent of eight tons of TNT each with live-tests of these weapons ( which the Soviets aimed to use elsewhere soon) conducted over a real target. Such was the end of Sirte and Gaddafi too. Haftar’s forces were impacted by the Sirte bombing but their opponents were destroyed. In the days and weeks afterwards, Haftar and his rebels took control of the rest of the nation. Scattered Gaddafi loyalists, men who didn’t believe he was dead, still fought and died for him. Soviet interference was limited, mainly technical, and Haftar showed his worth when it came to getting rid of the last vestiges of the regime. Libyan oil would no longer be going to Western Europe. However, Haftar wasn’t exactly pro-Soviet. He considered himself a Libyan patriot instead. His politics weren’t to their taste. A proud, devious man he was too. Vorotnikov cared little for him and his delays as well as how he had acted in a lonesome manner to take on Gaddafi rather than doing everything under Soviet guidance. Haftar’s future wasn’t one that Moscow would consider to be very long indeed.
James
Well that's Gaddafi gone and good riddens but I think Moscow may have dug itself a deeper hole as Haftar knows how far he can trust Vorotnikov - i.e. no distance at all - and if things turn against the Soviets he's likely to look for a way out. The fact that Vorotnikov and his cohorts don't realise why Haftar acted on is own shows how far their drifting from reality.
That bit about the thermobaric bombs is worrying. Suspect it would be in China but could easily be elsewhere. Probably not on the allies or France as it could result in a nuclear response, especially if against a population centre. Also hopefully even Britain, battered as it is, could deny the Soviets the air control for the use of such weapons.
Which made me think of something. We had the incident of the Dutch pilot who volunteered to aid the US. That ended badly but wondering if other people from Europe, with military experience, have been crossing the channel, or turning up in Norway or Iberia and offering their support? It seems likely that some would do this, possibly even resigning from current military positions in some cases and given how desperate the crisis is for the European allies I would expect they would be welcomed with open arms. Probably not many but even a few hundred with the right skills could be very useful.
Steve
I chose Haftar, Field Marshal Haftar in fact (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalifa_Haftar), because he is one of the world's great survivors. He is a sneaky git and if anyone could get away with it, he could, though not in the most easiest way. He is not someone anyway, let alone the USSR, would want as an ally: probably worse than Gaddafi would be for them. The thermobarics are earlier versions of the Father Of All Bombs. They'd need a Tu-95 to drop and if any of those are allowed free rein deep inside Britain / France or any big Western nation, those countries are in trouble. The skies over another nation are open though... see below. Ah, I forgot. He himself would have been sent back as that was unauthorised on both ends and broke many regulations. I suspect it is going on. I'd need to think about how and where. Some French officers might be 'on leave' maybe in Norway and elsewhere... possibly Canada. I'd need to think more on that. Ideas are welcome. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Oct 30, 2018 20:10:56 GMT
(276)
December 1984: China
Long before Taiwan’s leader Chiang Ching-kuo had rejected the Soviet offer to bring down the government on the mainland together, Taiwan had been active inside China itself getting ready to do that all by its lonesome. The start of the China War had seen this begin. Taiwan would prepare for the collapse of order, before or after a defeat for the Beijing Government, and once the defeat came, Taiwanese forces would move in to restore that order. The mainland would be retaken, Chiang would fulfil the dreams of his father. When that Soviet approach was made, it hadn’t come as a complete surprise. Back in 1969 the same thing had happened too. China and the Soviet Union had been on the verge of full-scale warfare then, only averted at the last minute though with brutal border clashes having taken place, and the elder Chiang had spoken with the Soviets (at the latter’s behest) about working together at that point before a change in Moscow’s position brought such an idea to an end. This time around, Chiang broke off contact with the Soviets when it came to working together and promised the Americans that he would do no such thing. He specifically omitted any mention promise of Taiwan not trying to do this itself.
It had been Taiwanese agents who had planted a bomb which had nearly killed Hu Yaobang. Chiang was no baby prince inheriting his father’s hard work and wasting himself & his country. He’d been the head of the secret police while his father reigned and done a good job running his nation since taking over. Cunning and with caution employed in everything he did, Chiang was determined that he would be the winner of the China War once it was over, not Moscow. Failing to get rid of Hu had been a disappointment though he did believe that if his agents on the mainland weren’t able to get him when they had another go, the Soviets would do so. He waited on the death of China’s leader and the country’s sure ceasefire with the Soviets where the country would then fall apart ready for Taiwanese forces to move in and the Republic of China to move it’s capital across to the mainland.
To the uninformed outsider, the ability of Taiwan to do this looked impossible. China was huge, Taiwan was tiny. The population difference, the military numbers and everything else seemed to be in China’s favour in a straight-up China-vs.-Taiwan fight. That was all true. However, Soviet (and Mongolian) armies occupied massive portions of China and had destroyed so much of China’s military might. The nation’s internal security had collapsed in so many places due to nuclear strikes and then the resulting fallout – literal and metaphorical – from that. Taiwan’s military forces might have been dwarfed by the armies that China had yet the Soviets had ripped many of those apart and subjected others to nuclear attack. When it came to the Taiwanese armed forces, they maintained strong strike forces including a pair of marine divisions, paratroopers, a lot of deployable armour along with both an army and an air force up to Western standards. This would allow for limited operations on the mainland where Taiwan could punch above its weight as long as those didn’t ultimately entail a fight for the whole nation against everything that China would possibly throw at them. Of course though, China was a nuclear-armed nation whereas Taiwan wasn’t. That cancelled out so many of these already-limited Taiwanese advantages. Until Chinese nuclear weapons were off the table, Chiang’s bigger plans were still impossible.
All along the Chinese coast from south of the radioactive hole in the ground where Shanghai had once been, down as far as Hainan Island, Taiwanese military activity had commenced starting two weeks into the China War. Reconnaissance parties had been active onshore while in the skies and the seas, the Taiwanese had been inside Chinese territory too. There had come clashes with the Chinese, small affairs but with full intensity in them. Chinese forces moved away northwards though and the Taiwanese got bolder where they moved forward to establish a forward presence on Chinese soil ready for later arrivals of bigger forces. Coastal parts of Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong provinces – those facing Taiwan – saw a strong Taiwanese military presence where the invaders stepped out of the shadows at times. Hainan and the Leizhou Peninsula was where that was particularly strong. Communications further inland for the Chinese were already extremely difficult down there who faced ambush and explosions with what some believed were Soviet raiders operating far from the frontlines before it became very clear that these weren’t Spetsnaz but Taiwanese commandos. There had already been open air and naval clashes between Chinese and Taiwanese forces over and in the Taiwan Straits during this war yet as December came to a close, all the evidence was there for Hu’s government in Nanchang that Taiwan was in the early stages of an invasion no matter what Chiang had told the Americans last month.
Far away to the north, winter on the North China Plain meant the cold coming down from Siberian across the Mongolian Steppe and into this cradle of Chinese civilisation. Soviet armies were present here, concentrating in force after moving through Inner Mongolia and Manchuria after defeating China’s best armies. There were reinforcements for the China War pouring in though they were still a long way behind. These massing armies were waiting for better weather in a few months time before going south. It was hoped in Moscow that by then the Chinese would have come to their senses yet the concentration of forces was taking place if Hu refused to. These troops took over security duties south of Beijing and the Yellow River’s lower reaches where last month so many other Soviet troops had taken immense casualties holding the region. Chinese guerrilla warfare, organised after a fashion, was intense and was dealt with using brutality. The Soviets used heavy conventional fire power as well as gas. In the middle of the ‘pacification campaign’ there came a nuclear exchange on the frontlines further south. Once again, the Chinese fired first in yet another unauthorised action made by local commanders. A single Chinese nuclear strike detonated by the firing of an artillery shell was answered with half a dozen counterblows on a tactical level. Soldiers from both sides lost their lives but the majority of casualties came among civilians. The Soviets had been of the belief that they had taken care of all Chinese nuclear weapons beyond Hu’s direct control and that he wouldn’t dare fire on them again. They were only half right in that.
The December 10th exchange saw an increase afterwards in Soviet long-range air and Spetsnaz activity outside of their extensive occupation zone. They struck even further afield at Chinese military targets where there was any hint that there might be nuclear weapons there. Chinese skies belonged to Soviet aircraft, a situation which those in North America could only dream of. Their special forces were able to range far afield – leading to that initial belief in Nanchang that it was them active along the southern coastline – though didn’t have as an easy time as the aircraft did. China’s masses might be fleeing in panic in their millions and dying in their millions too, but millions more were armed. Many occasions saw the Spetsnaz raiding teams caught and pinned down by hundreds of armed opponents who gave everything into killing them. Other strikes came against what further armies China was trying to form to head to the frontlines. The Soviets blasted these where they found them and also hit transport nodes ahead of them to slow their progress. However, these were still so many armed men all being marched northwards, more than any Soviet air attacks could stop.
Into Hong Kong and Macau Chinese civilians still fled to ahead of the war approaching them despite the British and Portuguese colonial authorities in each trying to stop them. There were others who went to Taiwan as they took the difficult journey across the water. More refugees made even more perilous journeys into further neighbouring countries from India to Burma to Laos and even to Vietnam. Then there were those boat people too, the ones heading even further afield and still preyed upon by pirates. The welcomes awaiting them were considered better than what they were fleeing from. So many didn’t survive the journey, either close to home or far away. Still, Chinese people left their country. There was no sign of this stopping any time soon, war or no war at home due to the aftereffects of the nuclear strikes which had hit the nation.
Nanchang remained home to Hu’s government. The Soviets had still not made any serious attack against the city as there remained the belief that Hu would ‘see sense’ when it came to the situation his country was in. They didn’t want to kill him because despite all his troubles with rebellious generals and their nuclear weapons, only he was considered the one with the power to take China out of the war and see that achieved. Hu was aware that that was the reason why Nanchang hadn’t joined so many other Chinese cities in nuclear annihilation: it wasn’t a big mystery. All Soviet approaches continued to be rebuffed though. China under his leadership wasn’t going to give in. The belief was that the Soviets would bleed themselves to death soon enough and that the will of the Chinese people would overcome the foreign invaders. Hu told the Americans this belief of his and how the whole of the Chinese people were behind him. He was sure of this, certain that despite all the horrors of the war so far, that soon enough ultimate victory would come. Nuclear fallout, the breakdown of civil order, tens of millions fleeing the nation and even the Taiwanese activities were not going to break Hu on this. He stood firm… and as long as he did, the Soviet Union would continue to send fighting men of its own to China, all soldiers not sent elsewhere in the world.
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Oct 31, 2018 0:27:36 GMT
James
Well that's Gaddafi gone and good riddens but I think Moscow may have dug itself a deeper hole as Haftar knows how far he can trust Vorotnikov - i.e. no distance at all - and if things turn against the Soviets he's likely to look for a way out. The fact that Vorotnikov and his cohorts don't realise why Haftar acted on is own shows how far their drifting from reality.
That bit about the thermobaric bombs is worrying. Suspect it would be in China but could easily be elsewhere. Probably not on the allies or France as it could result in a nuclear response, especially if against a population centre. Also hopefully even Britain, battered as it is, could deny the Soviets the air control for the use of such weapons.
Which made me think of something. We had the incident of the Dutch pilot who volunteered to aid the US. That ended badly but wondering if other people from Europe, with military experience, have been crossing the channel, or turning up in Norway or Iberia and offering their support? It seems likely that some would do this, possibly even resigning from current military positions in some cases and given how desperate the crisis is for the European allies I would expect they would be welcomed with open arms. Probably not many but even a few hundred with the right skills could be very useful.
Steve
I chose Haftar, Field Marshal Haftar in fact (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalifa_Haftar), because he is one of the world's great survivors. He is a sneaky git and if anyone could get away with it, he could, though not in the most easiest way. He is not someone anyway, let alone the USSR, would want as an ally: probably worse than Gaddafi would be for them. The thermobarics are earlier versions of the Father Of All Bombs. They'd need a Tu-95 to drop and if any of those are allowed free rein deep inside Britain / France or any big Western nation, those countries are in trouble. The skies over another nation are open though... see below. Ah, I forgot. He himself would have been sent back as that was unauthorised on both ends and broke many regulations. I suspect it is going on. I'd need to think about how and where. Some French officers might be 'on leave' maybe in Norway and elsewhere... possibly Canada. I'd need to think more on that. Ideas are welcome.
Good to hear about the impracticality of the thermobarics bombs over Britain being impractical, at least for the near future and hopefully that will be long enough. Does sound like China's in for another battering, although they might be less destructive than being hammered by nukes and chemical weapons.
I suspect that Hu will last longer than the Soviet will to continue the war but it could be a close run thing and China's going to be one hell of a mess afterwards. Even if Hu's government collapses I don't rate Taiwanese chances much, especially if its without western support after a Soviet collapse. For one thing having been seen to 'side' with the Soviets their going to be distrusted and for another just a few tactical nukes could screw any military chances they have and I don't think the Taiwanese will have any more certainty than the Soviets that all the CCP weapons are accounted for. At this point I suspect the CCP don't know that either.
Will you be resolving the future of Sweden and of whether some/all the neutral bloc enters the conflict as Luke and me are going in circles at the moment. As I say, much as I would like them to get involved, one way or another, to take some pressure off the allies, it seems unlikely given the current situation and if the Black sea fleet reaches Gibraltar that does suggest their either won decisively in Italy [which seems unlikely] or the bloc is still neutral.
With the volunteers I'm think the primary need is for anything to support the RAF in holding back the Soviet air and naval units in the Atlantic. Not only is Britain itself getting a battering and supplies from further away than Europe probably being virtually impossible cutting reinforcements to N America is important to enable the US to clear its homeland so that it can support its allies on other fronts. As without that or the neutral bloc doing a 180, Britain isn't going to be able to do it on its own and if the Black Sea fleet get active Iberia is going to be in for a rougher time as well.
On the naming a suitable alternative would be acceptable as it would save a lot of hassle. 
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Post by lukedalton on Oct 31, 2018 11:24:29 GMT
1) i'm happy to use the term EEC because using: 'The european nations at the moment neutral but still officially member of NATO' in a thread more than 150 pages long is a little time consuming and irritant; it's a little uncorrect? Yes, it's enough important to continue to talk about it? I doubt it 2) The bloc is not part of the american alliance...but had plenty of WMD (just France in OTL 1985 had 435 tons of chemical weapons) 3) Ankara and Athens can see the rest of Europe protest hypocritical sure (even if they are helping a lot the rest of the Alliance from other side), still Bruxelles will not be happy and their economies depend of France and co. as for the spare parts to keep their military gear ready. 4) For Palme, there will be some doubts about the rest of Europe commitments? Yes...there are some other game in town? No, so it's in the situation of drink or drown. By Author word, the european mobilization is not at the full stage, so some relief force can be sent, and Germany while not like the situation will understand (as all other european goverment) the consequence of the fall of Sweden and that war seem at the moment not avoidable, expecially with the recent developement in the Mediterranean, with the Kidnapping and the attack at the nuclear plant among other thing. 5) Getting a working and functional multigovernmental decision framework in this time of war and hard decision...is a priority, full stop; and some temporary/ad hoc/ solution will be found due to the sheer necessity of a decision making body. 6) Regarding Italy, if they want invade or even launching anything greater than raid the Soviets and co. will need a lot of naval assets that they don't have. 7) IRC the statement about the Soviet capacity aka reaching the Rhine with horrible casualities but after that not being capable of following, it's the statement of James, plus the war in America and UK had seen the great use of Speznats and airborne troopers...and of that there is a limited quantity, at least of good trained
1) I'm using a term that is [currently] factually correct but you for some reason have an objection to it and wish to use one that is simply wrong. Plus I'm pretty certain I was using it before you started trying to re-write the boundaries of the EEC. Not to mention are those nations still in NATO as they have breached its charter? Even the long winded term you invented above is no longer than 'the collection of EEC powers not currently engaged in the conflict' so please don't bother with strawmen like that.
2) Think your replying here to the possibility that if the bloc enters the war the Soviets might start with a chemical element to their attack? Yes the French have some deterrence and the bloc forces have some levels of chemical protection. Possibly not however for reserves moblised in the last few months? However the Soviets have far, far more and would be using them 1st. Also its going to cause a lot of damage and destruction both in areas overrun and those under attack behind the bloc lines. My point was that even if the cohesion of the bloc holds, which no one would know until it came to a shooting war, its going to take a hell of a lot of damage. For those actually involved in ground fighting far more than what's happened to the UK for instance.
3) Double standards are still double standards. Also depending on the situation after the war they might be needed to maintain security in the eastern Med or as a block to Soviet/Russian moves so they may not be as friendless as you suggest. They will be pretty unpopular presuming the Soviets are defeated decisively but don't assume both the allies and the bloc will freeze them out and leave the region to collapse in disorder.
4a) Its a possible card to use as an attempted deterrent - i.e. if the bloc would give such a promise to aid Sweden but if the Soviets call their bluff then Sweden isn't going to get a jot of direct help because the bloc would be busy trying to protect its own lands. Indirect help as I say but that's likely to be all.
4b) So having decided to dump its allies to avoid conflict when those allies made up a major part of their defence the bloc is going to join the conflict now? W Germany, with those allied forces that would have fought alongside them - because it would have been impossible to remove them with a shooting war going on - is now going to be happy to become the front line in a major new conflict with the Soviets and even by your projection see most of its country overrun? And why, because another neutral is overrun and S Norway is going to fall as a result? Britain won't fall because it has nukes and even Thatcher will be willing to threaten to use them if it gets that bad. Iberia won't be threatened if the Soviet forces in the Med can't seriously attack Italy which is much nearer their bases. I find it hard to see why the bloc, having done so much to avoid the war would suddenly do a 180 turn?
Frankly I would like to see the bloc do this as it would take some pressure off the allies, probably most especially Britain but since their followed their short term advantage so far I don't see why this would change. As I say I can see a geopolitical argument for France to finally come off the fence while keeping the bulk of its army back to defend Germany if attacked. This might just possibly deter an attack against Sweden or failing that would be a significant boost to the allies while possibly keeping the rest of the bloc neutral and leaving the burden on the Soviets to attack them, which would be the favoured option by the rest of the bloc. However I think the bloc actually deciding to step in now doesn't fit with the scenario so far. Also James has mentioned there will be a battle of Gibraltar. Unless this happens soon its not likely to occur if the bloc is at war as they will be busy fighting to get past Italy and its allies.
5) "a working and functional multigovernmental decision framework" is necessary but that is more likely to be some impromptu military and/or political council, like the combined chiefs of staff in WWII then 'lets throw together a unified government within a few weeks'.
6) Interesting that you suggest the Soviet Baltic fleet, having fought their way through the straits there and facing combatants to their south can support an invasion of Britain - which as I say I doubt the Soviets would be reckless enough to risk - but their Black Sea fleet having unopposed passage through the Turkish straits and with allied bases nearby can't support an invasion of Italy?
7) James did say something like that but that still leaves much of the bloc devastated, let alone possible developments elsewhere. However there is always doubt in warfare and while James's opinion, as the author of the story, special weight this is not something the bloc decision makers are aware of. They know they are weaker because of the loss of allies while relatively small Soviet forces have been committed to the N American front and those going to China have been from east of the Urals. Hence the bulk of the Soviet 2nd and 3rd echelon forces that would support their initial attack are still present west of the Urals. Also with the southern flank secured they have no need to fight Turkey or Greece. Plus the shortages of stockpiles that James mentioned as being fatal to NATO in real life may have been made up but may not, especially if their been generous in supplying the needs of the European allies.
1- i don't use a strawman and i don't redraw the EEC border, i just used the term EEC (even if 2 of the nations at the moment are engaged in the war) simply because is simpler and shorter even if not totally correct...and more importantly is a such trivial thing that frankly who cares? Me certainly not.
2- yes they will take a lot of damage, it's a war, unfortunely there is no other choice, if Sweden fall, the British fall and if this happen the EEC is surrounded (expecially due to the Lybian situation) and must capitulate to the Moscow...for this reason i said that neutrality has been nice while it last and not we will kick commie ass till Moscow and beyond.
3- welcome to the world of man, where double standard always apply and there are a lot of different degree between 'Let's forgive and forget' and 'throw the place in chaos'
4b - as said already three times, different strategic situation and different political situation aka things changes, and Britain will fall if Sweden fall...maybe not surrender due to the Nukes but simply agree to leave the war and act more friendly towards Moscow (the chapter about her had painted a very stressfull internal situation) and both the Iberian nation can be contained (if the Soviets are succesfull) and wait till surrender (if the general supply of oil situation is not good for the EEC it will be worse for the them, just to make an example). And it's not a 180 turn, the author had basically described in all the update of Europe, the relationship between EEC and Moscow gradually worsening
5 - maybe some goverment that had learned in the last 3 decades to work together in various common organizations , many of them with the specific objective of create a more unified Europe can 'let's throw together something in few months', expecially because it will be probably a copypaste of EEC plus NATO institution, with just the the western europe neutrals members and approved at ludicrous speed by the various parlamient due to the emergency situation.
6- If you have read the chapter about the British situation, the Soviet don't need to invade, there will be no Red Sealion, no fight in the shore, the streets, etc. etc., just to increase the pace of the attacks to make their situation unbearable and a compliant Sweden and the Baltic straits open will allow that
7- never said that the rest of Europe will have left unsctathed by such conflict if she entered, just that the Soviet at the moment are hardly the steamrolling machine with infinite reserve that we know it, expecially regarding the European theathre and what they can accomplish is much less...and James opinion, as author of the story is basically word of god, we can just give him suggestion. Regarding supply, James noted that the industry sector as received a lot of orders, so i expect that in the months that the war had started the problem has been dealt and that include replenish the supply given to the allies
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Post by lukedalton on Oct 31, 2018 11:43:42 GMT
But it also tie them to the Soviets, opening the Mediterrean to their fleet and greatly weaken the strategic position of both the Paris Pact (like it, but maybe Treaty/Charter/Alliance is better to differentiate by the other pact) and Allies. Not saying that they will have not accepted at the moment, but there will be long term consequences if the URSS and co. don't win, expecially for Greece that from an external pow seem be governed by...not very smart people; so i feel that once the afterglow of the end of the war will end the various leader will start to have some troubled thought and must decide Also because i don't see Paris and co. as not having tried to act as peacemaker between the two nation, while failing is probable, it will also look very bad to the Western eyes when Moscow get the role of ending the war and reap the logistical benefit of it And before someone point out some similarities between Turkey and Greece and the rest of Europe, at least the nation that bailed out of NATO commitment are actively helping the Allied war effort with supply, intelligence, humanitarian and financial aid
That's like saying they offered a band aid to a severed artery. Plus has James actually mentioned financial aid? There has been some intel and possibly humanitarian actions and some supply although where sent for free or with the expectation of payment its unclear. Basically they bailed out of a treaty that they had been members of for 30+ years because it was convenient for them. Which means no matter their economic position when the conflict ends their word will be worth very little as they have shown they can't be trusted.
The financial aid has been keeping the entire world economy from going even more down the rabbit hole, with the USA being attacked and the Dollar aka the world principal currency being under litteral attack, not considering the panicking and a lot of capital running away. Basically Glen will have needed a lot of cooperation to make things not going even more to hell in this month and this mean cooperate with Bruxelles.
As said at least they are helping and at the moment the Wallies are not in the position to refuse any possible help; regarding possibly humanitarian actions, well taking refugee and the relief effort that had caused the big diplomatic protest from Moscow probably can be qualified for this
Plus if one must be technical, them being neutral will have been included keep the Anglo-Canadian-American troops there and not helping them go back to North America with all their equipment (just an example the Berlin Airlift). If they remain not directly touched by the war, them being basically the only big modern economy left will also mean that many will ask their help and this will smooth a lot of things and frankly i doubt that there will be many nations left in the world that will be capable to be very choosy
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Oct 31, 2018 13:22:56 GMT
1) I'm using a term that is [currently] factually correct but you for some reason have an objection to it and wish to use one that is simply wrong. Plus I'm pretty certain I was using it before you started trying to re-write the boundaries of the EEC. Not to mention are those nations still in NATO as they have breached its charter? Even the long winded term you invented above is no longer than 'the collection of EEC powers not currently engaged in the conflict' so please don't bother with strawmen like that.
2) Think your replying here to the possibility that if the bloc enters the war the Soviets might start with a chemical element to their attack? Yes the French have some deterrence and the bloc forces have some levels of chemical protection. Possibly not however for reserves moblised in the last few months? However the Soviets have far, far more and would be using them 1st. Also its going to cause a lot of damage and destruction both in areas overrun and those under attack behind the bloc lines. My point was that even if the cohesion of the bloc holds, which no one would know until it came to a shooting war, its going to take a hell of a lot of damage. For those actually involved in ground fighting far more than what's happened to the UK for instance.
3) Double standards are still double standards. Also depending on the situation after the war they might be needed to maintain security in the eastern Med or as a block to Soviet/Russian moves so they may not be as friendless as you suggest. They will be pretty unpopular presuming the Soviets are defeated decisively but don't assume both the allies and the bloc will freeze them out and leave the region to collapse in disorder.
4a) Its a possible card to use as an attempted deterrent - i.e. if the bloc would give such a promise to aid Sweden but if the Soviets call their bluff then Sweden isn't going to get a jot of direct help because the bloc would be busy trying to protect its own lands. Indirect help as I say but that's likely to be all.
4b) So having decided to dump its allies to avoid conflict when those allies made up a major part of their defence the bloc is going to join the conflict now? W Germany, with those allied forces that would have fought alongside them - because it would have been impossible to remove them with a shooting war going on - is now going to be happy to become the front line in a major new conflict with the Soviets and even by your projection see most of its country overrun? And why, because another neutral is overrun and S Norway is going to fall as a result? Britain won't fall because it has nukes and even Thatcher will be willing to threaten to use them if it gets that bad. Iberia won't be threatened if the Soviet forces in the Med can't seriously attack Italy which is much nearer their bases. I find it hard to see why the bloc, having done so much to avoid the war would suddenly do a 180 turn?
Frankly I would like to see the bloc do this as it would take some pressure off the allies, probably most especially Britain but since their followed their short term advantage so far I don't see why this would change. As I say I can see a geopolitical argument for France to finally come off the fence while keeping the bulk of its army back to defend Germany if attacked. This might just possibly deter an attack against Sweden or failing that would be a significant boost to the allies while possibly keeping the rest of the bloc neutral and leaving the burden on the Soviets to attack them, which would be the favoured option by the rest of the bloc. However I think the bloc actually deciding to step in now doesn't fit with the scenario so far. Also James has mentioned there will be a battle of Gibraltar. Unless this happens soon its not likely to occur if the bloc is at war as they will be busy fighting to get past Italy and its allies.
5) "a working and functional multigovernmental decision framework" is necessary but that is more likely to be some impromptu military and/or political council, like the combined chiefs of staff in WWII then 'lets throw together a unified government within a few weeks'.
6) Interesting that you suggest the Soviet Baltic fleet, having fought their way through the straits there and facing combatants to their south can support an invasion of Britain - which as I say I doubt the Soviets would be reckless enough to risk - but their Black Sea fleet having unopposed passage through the Turkish straits and with allied bases nearby can't support an invasion of Italy?
7) James did say something like that but that still leaves much of the bloc devastated, let alone possible developments elsewhere. However there is always doubt in warfare and while James's opinion, as the author of the story, special weight this is not something the bloc decision makers are aware of. They know they are weaker because of the loss of allies while relatively small Soviet forces have been committed to the N American front and those going to China have been from east of the Urals. Hence the bulk of the Soviet 2nd and 3rd echelon forces that would support their initial attack are still present west of the Urals. Also with the southern flank secured they have no need to fight Turkey or Greece. Plus the shortages of stockpiles that James mentioned as being fatal to NATO in real life may have been made up but may not, especially if their been generous in supplying the needs of the European allies.
1- i don't use a strawman and i don't redraw the EEC border, i just used the term EEC (even if 2 of the nations at the moment are engaged in the war) simply because is simpler and shorter even if not totally correct...and more importantly is a such trivial thing that frankly who cares? Me certainly not.
The strawman was in using the convoluted term you did in place of the simple neutral bloc. In some things a little inaccuracy is practical in some things it isn't.
Doubtful assumption. Its a lot worse for Britain but still not out by a long way. True support could be useful and I mentioned a way that could happen but you value the complete unity of your bloc more than practicality it seems.
Yes there are many stages along a spectrum. As someone who always seeks to understand colour rather than simply see in black and white absolutes I'm fully aware of this. The problem is, as I say the bloc has greatly weakened its credibility by its actions. Reputation matters as much to nations as to people. Whether the reputation of two nations who found themselves in a ruinous war and got out of it then found they had been tricked will suffer more than that of those who deliberately broke treaty agreements is another matter. You seem to expect all bloc shortcomings will be automatically forgiven but the 'crimes' of others won't.
As I say not certain. Especially when British forces are busy elsewhere. Also by act more friendly would that be more friendly than the bloc has been doing? I.e. basically being a little less hostile than they have been.
Except your talking about a far more centralised system even than the EU is today. Which is going to be a complex and controversial operation which isn't what you really need with a world war waging your thinking of entering. What I mentioned is far more efficient and has historical precedents to call upon.
I have read it.
Well their still got the vast majority of the forces that have been facing western Europe for ages while the bloc is markedly weaker than NATO was at the start of the war. Also you assume most of those industrial orders might have been going to boost stockpiles but that might not be the case. James has left comments either way about how things might develop as I have pointed out.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Oct 31, 2018 14:04:52 GMT
Please stop arguing. You guys are writing more than I am and trying to follow this dispute is leaving me frustrated.
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If the Maltese thought their plight was bad before I fear its going to only get worse. 
